Tác động của đa dạng hóa mặt hàng xuất khẩu đến tăng trưởng kinh tế việt nam

BO GIAO DUC VA DAO TAO TRUONG DAI HOC KINH TE QUOC DAN fcm•oacQ PHAN TIEN NGOC TAC HONG CCJA DA DANG HOA MAT HANG XUAT KHAU DEN TANG TIRLYO'NG KINH TE VI ET NAM Chuyen nganh: Kinh phat trien Ma so: 62.31.01.05 LUAN AN TIEN Si KINH TE Ngtrefi hwolig d&n khoa hoc: PGS.TS PHAN THI NHItM PGS.TS NGUYEN THI MINH HA NOI - 2014 LO'I CAM DOAN Toi xin cam loan day la cong trinh nghien cfru khoa hoc d6c lap dm toi Cac thong tin, so lieu Juan an la trung thuc va co ngu6n g6c r6 rang cu the Ket qua nghien ciru Juan an chua tong du9c cong 136 bat 14 cong trinh nghien cfru nao khac Tic gia LOn an MUC LUC ii MUC LUC DANH MUC CAC BANG DANH MUC SO DO VA BIEU DO vi DANH MUC CAC Tif VIET TAT vii PHAN MO DAU viii CHIYONG 1: CO SO LY LUAN NGHIEN CfrU TAC BONG CUA DA DANG HOA MAT HANG XUAT KHAU DEN TANG TRU'ONG KINH TE 1.1 Tang trtrerng kinh to va cac nhan to tic Ong 1.1.1 Khai niem tang trtramg kinh to 1.1.2 MOt so thtrac thu nhap Aid tang twang kinh to chti yeti 1.1.3 Cac nhan to tac Ong tai tang truing kinh to 1.2 Cu sii, 15T luau ve da dong hoa mat hang xuat khan 1.2.1 Quan niem ve da clang h6a va tap trung h6a mat hang xuat khan 1 11 11 1.2.2 Phan loci da clang h6a mat hang xuat khau 1.2.3 Do hieing da clang h6a mat hang xuat khau 1.2.4 Cac yeti to anh huong den da clang h6a mat hang xuat khau da (long hoa mat hang xuat 1.3.Co.s& khoa hoc nghien cum tac &Ong khan den tang truirng kinh to 1.3.1 Ca so 1y thuyet ve tac Ong cua da clang h6a mat hang xuat khau doi vai tang truth-1g kinh to 15 1.3.2 Kenh tac dOng cda da dang hoa mat hang xuat khau den tang truang kinh to 1.3.3 TOng quan nghien thu thuc nghiem tac, dOng cua da clang hoa mat hang xuat khau den tang truang kinh to 1.3.4 MO hinh va gia thiet nghien thu CHIYONG 2: THI1C TRANG DA DANG HOA MAT HANG XUAT KHAU CUA VIET NAM GIAI DOAN 1991-2011 2.1 Tling quan xuat khan ciia Viet Nam giai down 1991-2011 2.1.1 Quy mO va t6c dO tang truong xuat khdu 2.1.2 Ca call mat hang xuat khau 2.1.3 Co can xuat khau phan theo khu vuc kinh to 2.1.4 Ca cau thi truOng xuat khau 2.2 Phan tich thtyc da dong hOa mat hang xuat klAu dm Viet Nam ii 17 22 31 31 39 41 49 54 54 54 56 58 60 65 2.2.1 Phan tich da dang h6a dua tren th6ng ke s6 luting chfing loci mat hang 65 2.2.2 Phan tich da clang hoa dua tren chi s6 Herfindahl (HI) 66 2.2.3 Phan tich da clang hoa dua tren ty xuat khAu san ph'am ch'e bien 68 2.2.4 Phan tich da clang h6a dtra tren chi s6 Theil Etropy 73 2.2.5 Phan tich da clang Ma lgi the so sanh cua cac mat hang xuat khau 75 2.3 Dinh gii chung ve da d#ng hoa mat hang xuat khAu cua WO Nam 78 2.3.1 Nhung mat tich ctrc 78 2.3.2 Nhang han che, thach fink 80 2.3.3 Cac nguyen nhan anh huang den da clang h6a mat hang xuat khau dia Viet Nam CHVONG 3: DANH GIA TAC BONG CUA DA DANG HOA MAT HANG XUAT KHAU DEN TANG TRIXCING KINH TE VIVT NAM 3.1 T6ng quan tang trusEeng kinh t6 Vqt Nam 81 87 87 3.1.1 Quy mo va t6c dO tang truang chung cua nen kinh to 87 3.1.2 Quy mo va t6c dO tang truang cua cac nganh 90 3.2 Phan tich dinh tinh taccrdOng da d#ng h6a mat hang xuat khAu den tang trtromg kinh to WO Nam 94 3.2.1 M6i quan he giaa da clang h6a chung 14 mat hang xuat khau va tang truang kinh to 94 3.2.2 M6i quan he gifia chi s6 tap trung hoa mat hang xuat khau Herfindahl va tang twang kinh to 96 3.2.3 M6i quan he glib chi so da clang h6a mat hang xuat khau Theil Etropy va tang truang kinh to 99 3.2.4 Mo'i quan he gift tS71e san pham ch'e bien xuat khau va tang truang kinh to 100 3.2.5 M6i quan he giita da clang h6a lgi the so sanh va tang twang kinh to 101 3.3 Phan tich dinh luvng tac Ong cua da dang hoa mat hang xuat khan den tang tru6ng kinh to WO Nam 103 3.3.1 Vai net ve mo hinh va phuang phap uac luting 103 3.3.2 MO to cac bien va so lieu 3.3.3 Dinh lugng mo hinh va phan tich ket qua 106 3.4 Danh gia chung tac Ong cua da d#ng hoa mat hang xuat khan d6n tang truomg kinh to VI* Nam iii 108 120 CHU'ONG 4: DINH HIJONG DA DANG HOA MAT HANG XUAT KHAU VA CAC GIAI PHAP THVC HItN NHAM THUC DAY TANG TRIfoNG KINH TE VIET NAM 125 4.1 Can co' dinh huovg da d#ng h6a mat hang xuat khau dm Viet Nam den nam 2020, tam nhin 2030 125 4.1.1 Xu the phat trien dia nen kinh to toan cau tac dOng tad da clang h6a mat hang xuat khau thoi gian toi 125 4.1.2 Dinh huOng chien ltr9c phat trien kinh to Viet Nam den nam 2020 129 4.1.3 Dinh huang chuyen dOi mo hinh tang twang kinh to cilia Viet Nam 130 4.1.4 Dinh huang xuat khau ciia Viet Nam 131 4.2 Quan diem ya dinh hu&ng thtfc hien da d4ng hoa mat hang xuat khau den nam 2020, tam nhin 2030 133 4.2.1 Quan diem thuc hien da clang h6a mat hang xuat khau 133 4.2.2 Dinh huong thuc hien da clang hoa mat hang xuat khau nham thuc day tang truang kinh to Viet Nam 135 4.3 MCA so giai phap thkre hien da d4ng hoa mat hang xuat khAu nhim thuc day tang truing kinh to Viet Nam 139 4.3.1 Giai phap xac dinh va hinh danh muc mat hang xuat khau mui nh9n de da clang hoa theo chieu sau 139 4.3.2 Giai phap ve dau to thuc hien da clang hOa mat hang xuat khau 141 4.3.3 Giai phap nang cao chat luvng ngtiOn nhan luc dap irng yeu cau da dang h6a mat hang xuat khau 144 4.3.4 Giai phap phat trien khoa hoc cong nghe nham da dang hoa mat hang xuat khau 145 4.3.5 Giai phap phat trien cong nghiephO trg nham thuc hien da clang h6a mat hang xuat khau 147 4.3.6 Giai phap ve tai chinh, tin dung nham da clang hoa mat hang xuat khau 149 4.3.7 Giai phap hoan thien co the chinh sach quan 1Y va dieu hanh xuat khau 150 4.3.8 Giai phap xfic lien thuang mai thuc hien da clang h6a mat hang xuat khau 153 KET LUNN 155 DANH MIJC CAC CONG TRINH CUA TAC GIA 157 DANH Ml(JC TAI LIEU THAM KHAO 158 PHLJ IAJC 167 iv DANH MUC CAC BANG Bang 2.1: Co cau mg hang xuat khau dm V* Nam giai doan 1995-2011 57 Bang 2.2: Ca cdu xuat khau phan theo khu vuc kinh to giai doan 2000-2011 59 Bang 2.3: Cac thi trung xuat khau hang h6a leen nhat cila V* Nam 62 Bang 2.4: Chi s6 tap trung h6a mat hang xuat khau Herfindahl cua cac nuac can Saharan va Bong A 67 Bang 2.5: He s6 Mang quan hang Spearman dOi vai chi s6 PRODY va RCA 72 Bang 2.6: Da clang hoa giita cac nh6m hang va da dang h6a not 116 nh6m hang 74 Bang 3.1: Gia tri san xuat va t6c dO tang truang cua cac nh6m nganh kinh to o V* Nam 90 Bang 3.2: 1(6t qua ki6m dinh tinh citing cua cac bin so mo hinh 108 Bang 3.3: K6t qua u6.c lugng tac &Ong cua da clang h6a mat hang xuat khAu d6n tang truang GDP 109 Bang 3.4: Kim dinh m6i quan he nhan qua Granger giaa da clang h6a mg hang xuat khau voi lao &Ong va dau tu 111 Bang 3.5: K6t qua ware lugng tac &Ong cua da clang h6a theo chi'eu rOng den tang truong GDP 116 Bang 3.6: K6t qua uac luting tac dOng cua da clang h6a theo chi"au sau d6n tang trugng GDP 117 Bang 3.7: Kim dinh m6i quan he nhan qua Granger Oita da clang hoa mat hang xuat khAu voi lao dOng va dau tu 118 DANH MUC SO DO VA BIEU DO So dO 1.1: MO hinh tong cung, tang cdu cila nen kinh to So dO 1.2: Quan niem ve da dpg h6a xuat khdu cila Alberto Amurgo-Pacheco va Martha Denisse Pierola (2008) So 1.3: Cac giai down da dpg h6a mat hang xuat khdu Bieu 2.1: Tec dO tang tnrang xuat khdu, GDP va tST le XK/GDP Bieu dO 2.2: Co cau mat hang xuat khau cua Viet Nam thai kST 1991-2011 Bieu 2.3: Co cAu xuat khdu phan theo khu vuc kinh to sau da tach xuat khdu dau tho Bieu dO 2.4: Co cdu thi trung xuat khAu cda Viet Nam Bleu dO 2.5: Se luang chfing loci mat hang xuat khdu cua Viet Nam giai don 2001-2011 Bleu 2.6: Chi so tap trung h6a mat hang xuat khdu Herfindahi oda Viet Nam Bleu 2.7: Ty mat hang the bien tong se mat hang xuat khdutheo bang phan loci tieu chuan ngoai thuang S ham Wong ding nghe cac mat hang the bien XK Bieu dO 2.8: Ti Bleu dO 2.9: Mdc dO phirc tap hay nang sudt cua giO hang hoa xuat khAu Viet Nam Bleu dO 2.10: Chi se PRODY cac nhom hang xuat khdu dia Viet Nam Bleu 2.11: Chi se da dpg boa mat hang xuat khdu Theil Etropy Bieu dO 2.12: SO lugng chi:mg 14 mat hang c6 RCA cao cua Viet Nam 10 12 14 54 56 60 61 65 67 68 70 71 73 74 Bieu dO 2.13: Thay d6i co cdu lgi the so sanh theo nhom hang 76 77 Bleu dO 2.14: Thay doi co cAn lqi the so sanh theo ham lugng khoa hoc-cong nghe 78 Bleu dO 3.1: Tiic dO tang truing kinh to Viet Nam 1991-2011 87 Bi4u dO 3.2: Da dpg hoa chi:mg lo4i mat hang xuat khdu va kim ng4ch xuat khau cila Viet Nam 95 13C4u 3.3: Da dpg hoa chung 14 mat hang xuat khdu va tec dO tang GDP cda Viet Nam Bi6'u dO 3.4: Chi so tap trung hoa Herfindahi va tang truing kinh t6 Bieu dO 3.5: 1\46i quan he gida chi se Herfindahi va tang truing kinh to cua Malaixia va Thai Lan Bleu 3.6: Mei quan he gida chi se Herfindahi va tang truing kinh to cila Chile va Uganda Bleu dO 3.7: Chi se) da dqng hoa mat hang xuat khdu Theil Etropy va tang truing kinh to Bieu dO 3.8: Ty le hang xudt khdu the bien va tang truing kinh t6 Bieu dO 3.9: Ty le mat hang xuat khdu c6 lgi the so sanh hien him va tang truing kinh t6 Bleu dO 3.10: Phan dng cda tang truing GDP tnroc cac cu shock Bleu dO 3.11: Phan img cda GDP truck cac cu shock tir da d4ng boa theo chieu rOng va chieu sau vi 96 97 98 98 100 101 102 114 119 DANH MUC CAC Tir VIET TAT ASEAN Hiep hOi cac nu& Dong Nam A ARDL Tr6 phan phi to h6i quy BCHTW Ban chap hanh Trung uong BTA Hiep dinh thuang mai song phuang vai Hoa Ky ED Da clang h6a mat hang xuat khau EU Lien minh chau Au HED Da clang h6a mat hang xuat khau theo chieu rOng HO Ly thuyet Hecksher-Ohlin HI Chi s6 tap trung h6a Herfindhal HS He th6ng thuang mai hai hem GDP T6ng san pham qu6c not GMM Phuang phap momen tong quat GSO T6ng cvc th6ng ke IMF Quy" tien to qu6c to FDI Dau to truc tiep nu& ngodi M2 Cung tin M2 NIEs Cac nen kinh t6 mgi not OLS Phuang phap binh phuong nho nhat RCA Lai the so sanh hien him SITC Phan loci thuang mai chuan qu6c t SNA He th6ng tai khoan qu6c gia TheilT Chi so Theil Etropy TFP Nang suat cac nhan to tong hgp USD DO la My UN Lien hgp qu6c VAR MO hinh vec to to h6i quy VECM VED MO hinh vec to hieu chinh sai s6 Da clang hOa mat hang xuat khau theo chi'eu sau WB Ngan hang the giai WTO T6 chirc thuang mai the giai XK Xuat khau vii PHAN MO DAU Tinh cap thitt ctia cue tai Trong lich sir phat trien kinh to hoc, m6i quan he gifia xuat khAu va tang truang kinh to la chit de dugc nghien cdu tir rat sam va nhanh chong thu but &mg dao nhieu hoc gia not tieng Ngay tir tiled Adam Smith (1723-1790), the phAm not tieng "nguein g6c su giAu c6 cua cac dan t8c", A.Smith da" nhAn manh tam quan tong cua viec xuat khAu hang h6a nhu mot nhan to san xuat gia tri thong du, va la mot phuong tin de ma Ong thi truang, dong thai gOp phAn cai thien phan cong lao Ong va nang cao nang su'At lao dOng [1] Ke tir dO den nay, d5c biet tir nhang nom 1960s tra lai day, to h6a thuang mai, thgc hien chinh sach huang ngoai va tittle dAy xuat khAu duqc coi la d8ng luc phat trien cita nen kinh te Tuy nhien tr'en thgc te, khong phai ntrac nao ding thgc hien cong chiL lugc Co mac thgc hien kha cong chiL lugc tang twang duo vao xuat khAu (cac nen kinh te moi not a Dong A NIEs), nhung cling c6 nhieu queic gia dang phat trien khac a Nam A, chau My latin lai thgc hien khong may cong Dieu (la dan den cu8c tranh luan soi not ve vai trO cua xuat khAu d6i \Ted tang truang kinh te Va mot gia thiet dirge nhieu hoc gia d5t la: c6 le vai to cua xuat khAu d6i vai tang truang kinh to khong phai chi la quy mo, kh6i lugng xuat khAu, ma quan tong hart dO chinh la cL true r6 hang hoa xuat khAu cita qu6c De lap Juan va chtng minh gia thiet nay, cac truang phai ly7 thuyet d5 di sau tim hieu cau true re) hang h6a xuat khau va tac demg cila no den tang truang kinh te Nhieu nghien cuu cho rang que)c gia cO cAu true r6 hang h6a xuat kh'Au da clang han se it bi ton thuang han truck nhung bier' Ong ye gia ca, nhu cAu cua thi truang the gied; nhang nuac c6 nhieu san phAm cite bien han, co ham luang khoa hoc cong nghe cao han se c6 lgi the han trao d6i buon ban Wei nhung nuac chit yeu xuat khAu cac mat hang the), sa che, tham dung lao d8ng 016 thong Chinh vi vay, nhieu nguai ggi )'7 rang cac qu6c gia dang phat trien nen ma remg san xuat nhieu chi:mg loci san phAm xuat khAu, da clang h6a co cL mat hang xuat khAu de giant thieu nhang the Ong tieu cgc str bien demg ve thi truang, d'ong thai gop phAn cai thien he s6 trao doi thuang mai (terms of trade), tat) hieu Ung lan too, nang cao gia tri hang xuat khAu thong qua da clang hoa theo chieu sau Viet Nam-m8t que)c gia dang phat trien a Dong Nam A, sau tin hanh d6i mai nen kinh te (1986), Bang va Nha nuac da chit truong thgc hien chien lugc phat trien kinh te huang manh ye xuat khAu Van kin Doi he)i Bai bieu toan queic ran thir VI kh'ang dinh: cong cu8c de)i mai truck mat phai "tap trung sire ngtr61, sic cua vao viec thy'c hien cho &rat ba chtrang trinh myc tieu ve hrang thvc-thtrc ph a' m, hang viii tieu dung va hang xuat nhap khau "[2] Tiep do, tai 116i nghl Dai h6i dai bieu toan qu6c Oita nhiemlkhoa VII, Dang va nha nuac da xac dinh, ltra chgn chien lugc phat trien kinh to "htrang manh ve xuat khau, clang theft thay the nhap khau bang nhfrng san pham nu& san xuat c6 hi eu qua "[2] ChiL lugc tiep tvc dugc quan triet cac l(ST Dai lt6i VIII, IX, X va (lac biet Dai h6i dai bieu toan qu6c lAn thi.r XI nhAn manh: "Day manh va khuyen khich xuat khau, dac biet la &tang mat hang moi, san pham the bien, ch'j tao cc; ham luvng khoa hoc cong nghe cao, gia tri gia tang cao; giam manh xuat khau nguyen lieu, khoang san, san pham tho."[2] Thuc hien chic truang do, sau km 27 nam dai mad, hog Ong xuAt khau cua nu& to da dat dugc nhang nhang tqu rat dang khich le Quy ma kim ngach xuAt khAu nam 2012 tang hon 145 lAn so vai nam 1986 XuAt khAu binh quan dAu nguai tang tir 11,7 USD/nguai nam 1985, len 393,8 USD nam 2005 va dat 1306 USD nam 2012 Co cAu mat hang xuAt khAu co nhang chuyen bien tich cgc San phAm xuAt khAu cang da dang va phong phu hon Ben canh nhang mat hang khoang san, nong san xuAt kh'Au, da xuAt hien cang nhieu mat hang xuat khAu mai nhu: 'tong san the bien, det may, da giAy, may mac, thiet b] diL, dien tir Qua trinh da dang h6a mat hang xuAt khAu da g6p phAn dem lai nhirng thuan led de nen kinh t6 tang truang nhanh va on dinh nhang nam qua Tuy nhien, nhin tong the co cAu xuAt khAu cua Viet Nam van chn y'eu la cac mat hang co ngu6n g6c tir tai nguyen thien nhi'en, gia cong xuAt khAu, gia tri gia tang thAp Nhang mat hang co dac diem la: d6 co gian cua cAu theo thu nhap thAp; gia ca thuang co xu twang giam tuong quan vai gia ca cua cac mat hang the bien, chlu nhieu "thua thiet" quan he trao d6i qu6c te, va lam tang nguy co can kiet tai nguyen Han 'lira, tap trung vao nhung nhom mat hang nen tang truang xuAt khAu cua Viet Nam khong on dinh, phu thu6c fat lan vao gia ca, nhu cAu th] truemg, chinh sach thuang mai qu6c to cua cac d6i tac [10], [44] Thirc t6 dat mot van de can nghien ciru la: lieu ca cau mat hang xuat khau cua Viet Nam CO thtrc str da clang hay khong? n'ju co thi xu &rang da clang h6a nhu the nao? mire da clang bao nhieu? va str da clang h6a anh luro.ng nhtr the nao den tang trtro.ng kinh te? J Tra lai nhang cau lied clang chinh la gop phAn xem xet lai vai tn.) cua xuAt khAu, dac biet la co cAu mat hang xuAt khAu d6i vai tang truang kinh to Viet Nam thai gian qua; d6ng thai la co sa de cac nha hoach dinh chinh sach tai co cAu mat hang xuAt khAu nham dam bao tang truang nhanh va ben \Tang cua nen kinh to theo duang thfic day xuat khau Xuat phat tix nhang 17 tren, nghien ciru sinh chon de tai: "Ttic d'Ong cua da dyng h6a melt hang xuat din tang tru'O'ng kinh to Viet Nam" lam luan an nghien cfru cua minh ix Tting quan tinh hinh nghien ciru co lien quan den 1u4n an Viet Nam, sau han 27 nom dei mai, hog deng xuat khau cUa nuac to da dot duqc nhung nhfing tuu rat An tuqng Mac du vAy, nhin tong the xuat khAu cua Viet Nam van tap trung, chu yau dtxa vao nhung mat hang the, sa cha, gia tri gia tang thap; mix de tham dung nhiau tai nguyen thien nhien va lao deng phe thong nen tang truang xuat khau cua Viet Nam khong on dinh, phu thuc fat lan vao gia ca, nhu cau cac dei tac Truck thuc t6 de, tren thi truang, chinh sach thuang mai quec nhiau phuang tien thong tin dal chfing van de "da clang hoa mat hang xuat khau" duqc da cap kha nhiau cac bai phong van, phat biau cua cac nha quan 1)"7 tren boo, dai Tuy nhien, nhung 3'7 kin de phan lan mai chi dirng lai a nhling nhan dinh mang tinh gqi ma ban dL va met huang nghien dru mai a Chinh vi vay, cho den se cac cong trinh nghien dm lien quan clan van a Viet Nam rat han cha Dang chu )"7 co cong trinh nghien cfru va Oat trian mat hang mai nhu: nghien cfru dm Nguyen Thi Thu Huang (2004) "Met se giai phap phat trien xuat khau mat hang mai dm Viet Nam bei canh hei nhAp kinh to pee t6", va nghien cfru cua Nguyen Hong Phong (2007) "Giai phap phat trian xuat khau mat hang mai cila Viet Nam thai gian tar Nhung nghien dm phan nao de cap clan van de da clang Ilea mat hang xuat khau, nhung each flap can chn yau xem xet tang thai tinh Tire la phan tich cac mat hang xuat khau mai duai gec de nhu la mot nhom san pham, chic khong phan tich la qua trinh ma reng, qua trinh da clang Ilea ca cau xuat khau cua Viet Nam Han nib, nhung nghien cdu de chi clang lai xem xet a gec de ma reng se luqng hang flea (tire da dang hoa theo chiau reng) ma chua xem xet den su thay doi cau true, chat lucmg re hang Ilea xuat khau cua Viet Nam Met se nghien cdu khac khong true tiap phan tich da clang Ilea mat hang xuat khau, nhung lai de cap den su chuyan dich ca cau san pharn xuat khau Dang chu y co nghien cfru cua Nguyen Hiru Khai (2007) "Danh gia thuc trang va dinh huang chuyan dich ca cau hang xuat khau Viet Nam thai kS7 2005 — 2015" va nghien cfru cda Bui Thuy VAn (2011) "Dau to true tip nuac ngoai (FDI) vai viac chuyan dich ca cau mat hang xuat kh'Au a viing Deng bang Bac be" Nhang nghien cfru danh gia su thay cfoi cau true re hang hoa xuat khau, chi( khong danh gia qua trinh da clang Ilea mat hang xuat kh'Au O khia canh nao de, six thay dei cau true la qua trinh da clang Ma, nhung cung co nhung thay doi cau true chua han la da dang flea ma ce lai tap trung hoa Gan day co met nghien cfru cua Nguyen Thi Minh Huang (2012) va "Da clang hoa mat hang xuat khau tir Viet Nam sang NhAt Ban" Day co the coi la met nhung nghien cuu dau tien ve da clang Ilea mat hang xuat khau a Viet Nam Nghien cfru da phan tich mix de da clang hoa cac mat hang xuat khau ciaa Viet Nam sang NhAt Ban giai doan 2001-2010 dva tren chi se Herfindahl va thong ke se luong chting loci mat hang xuat khau Tuy nhien, nghien cuu mai chi xem xet da clang h6a a met thi truang cu the, chua phan tich sir da clang hoa cac mat hang xuat khau cila Viet Nam Thvc to cho thay, dei vai met thi twang nao ca cat' mat hang xuat khau c6 the da dang hoa, nhung a tat ca cac thi truang thi chua chac ca call mat hang xuat khau cua Viet Nam duac da clang h6a Han nira, nghien ciru mai chi dirng lai a viec phan tich mirc de da dang 116a mat hang xuat khau theo chieu reng, chua phan tich muc va xu twang da clang hoa mat hang xuat khau theo chieu sau Dac biet, nghien ciru chua xem xet anh huang cna da clang h6a mat hang xuat khau den tang truang kinh t6 V* Nam Ngodi ra, met se nghien cfru ve hei nhap quec to cita Viet Nam nhu: Bao cao "Danh gia tac &Ong tong the Viet Nam tra thanh vien cua WTO den thay doi xuat nhap khau va the che" cua Du an ho try chinh sach thuang mai da bien (MUTRAP); Bao cao "Mc deng cna hei nhap kinh t6 quec to doi vai nen kinh to sau ba nam Viet Nam gia nhap WTO cna Vien Nghien cfru guar' 1)'T kinh to Trung tieing cling da tinh toan, phan tich met se chi tieu da dang h6a mat hang xuat khau cna Viet Nam Tuy nhien nhung nghien dm chi xem xet tac deng cna hei nhap kinh t6 qu6c to den da clang h6a mat hang xuat khau chu khong trvc tier, phan tich mire 0, xu twang da clang h6a mat hang xuat khau dm Viet Nam Han nib, cac nghien ciru tren ding chua xem xet tac &Ong cda da clang hoa mat hang xuat khau den tang truang kinh to Viet Nam Do viec nghien cfru da clang hoa mat hang xuat khau va tac deng cua no den tang truang kinh to a Viet Nam hi'en dang la met "khoang trong" can dtrac khoa lap Xuat phat tir nhung khoang do, NCS nhan thay rang viec thvc hien de tai la rat can thiet, be sung cho flitting nghien ciru truac xet tren ca phuang dien khoa hoc va thuc ti6n 1VInc dich nghien ciru Myc lieu tong phan tich tac deng cna viec da clang hoa mat hang xuat khau den tang twang kinh to Viet Nam Muc tieu cu the: - Nghien ciru ca sa b'T luan ve da clang h6a mat hang xuat khau va tac &Ong cna da clang hoa mat hang xuat khau den tang twang kinh te - Phan tich, danh gia mirc 0, xu huong da clang hoa mat hang xuat khau cna Viet Nam tir dei mai den - Danh gia tac &Ong cna da clang hoa mat hang xuat khau cl6n tang truang kinh t6 Viet Nam tiled gian qua xi - De xuat dinh huang va mat s6 giai phap thuc hien da clang hoa mat hang xuat khau nham dam bao tang truang nhanh va ben \Tang cda nen kinh te theo duang thiic day xuat khau cila Viet Nam nhang nam tai Doi tuvng va phm vi nghien cum: 4.1 Dai tuyng nghien cfru: D6i Wong nghien ciru cua luan an la da clang h6a mat hang xuat khau va tac dang dia no den tang truang kinh t6 Viet Nam 4.2 Phgm vi nghien cern: - Pham vi ve not dung: da clang hoa mat hang xuat khau co the dien a cap da doanh nghiep, cap da qu6c gia va cap da quac te Do mpc dich nghien ciru ctia luan an la phan tich tac clang cda da clang h6a mat hang xuat khau den tang truang kinh vi vay pham vi nghien ciru cua luan an tap trung xem xet da clang Ma mat hang xuat khau tren goc da tong the a cap quac gia - Pham vi ve thai gian va khong gian: Luan an tap trung nghien ciru da clang h6a mat hang xuat khau a Viet Nam giai clop 1991-2011 Phtro•ng phap nghien cum De thuc hien muc tieu va cac not dung nghien dm, luan an sir dung phuong phap luan vat bien chirng va vat lich sir lam phuong phap nghien ciru co ban de phan tich su da clang hOa mat hang xuat khau va tac clang cua no den tang twang kinh te Tren co sa tim quy luat van clang giva chUng Ngoai ra, de tai can sir dung mat so phuong phap cu the khac nhu: phuong phap phan tich he th6ng, tong hop, logic, lich sir, th6ng ke, so sanh d6i chieu tang ket thgc tiZn de he th'6ng hoa cac van de 1)'T luan, phan tich danh gia thuc tang da clang hoa mat hang xuat khau va tac dang cua no den tang truang kinh to Viet Nam, ding nhu tao su gan bo chat the giita cac phan de tai nghien cdu Phuang phap phan tich kinh te luting: luan an van dung va xay dung mo hinh vec to to h6i quy (VAR) phan tich tac clang cda da clang hoa mat hang xuat khau den tang truang kinh te Viet Nam Day la mo hinh kinh to luting dung de xem xet Ong thai va su phu thuc lan giva cac bien theo thai gian MO hinh VAR la mo hinh h6i quy Ong Trong mo hinh VAR, m8i bien s6 duoc giai thich bang mat phuong trinh china cac gia tri tre cda chinh bien s6 va cac giA tri trZ cua cac bie'n so khac Ve cAu tritc mo hinh VAR g6m nhieu phuong trinh (mat he phuong trinh) va co cac tr'6 cda bien s6 Vai mo hinh dang nhu v4y, vi4 trOc luting khong chi co tac Ong cua cac bien giai thich, ma bao g6m ca bien tre cua bien phu thu6c Theo nhieu nghien ciru, mo hinh uac luting co cac bien tre cua bien phu thuc dam bao da tin cay cao hon a xii so vai nhang ma hinh khong co bin tre cua bien phv thu9c, ma van giir duce d9ng thai lau dai ciia tang truang kinh te Khai quat ve phuong phap va quy trinh thvc hi'en nghien cfru cua Juan an duoc minh hoa theo so sau: Nghien cam 1ST 1u4n veA da dong h6a mat hang xuat khan 4•••• Co s r khoa hoc ye tac Ong cua da d'ng hoa mat hang xuat khan den tang truirng kinh Mo hinh va gia thiet nghien cum Phrncng phap nghien cfru dinh tinh: , (phan tich, so sanh7 tong hop, suy dien thong cA Khan sat thu th4p so lieu tic,d0 han tich,thqc trang va dinh hang xuat khau den ciia da d4ng hoa mit • tfingirtning kinh to Viet Nam, Phiro'ng phap nghien cfru dinh luvng: (Mo hinh vec to to hoi quy VAR) Nghien cull cac dinh hweeng phat trial chung ciia WO Nam Nghien cum xu the Oat trien cila n en kinh to toil' au •• I • V Axuat A quan them, X dinh htthng va giai phi") thin hien da 4ng hoa mat X nham thtle day X tang truirng kinh to vqt Nam A khan hang xuat Y nghia khoa hoc va time tiers cua 1u4n an - Luan an da he thOng h6a &roc co s6 ly luVn nghien cdu tac d9ng cua da clang h6a mat hang xuat khau den tang truang kinh te Tren co s6 xay dung &roc khung phan tich 1y thuyet va chi dinh &roc mo hinh, phuong phap dinh luong phii hop de danh gia tac d9ng cua da clang hoa mat hang xuat khau d6n tang tnrong kinh to Vi't Nam nhcing nom d6i moi vim qua - Phan tich thgc trpg xuat khau va da clang hoa mat hang xuat khau cua Viet Nam bao da clang h6a theo chiL r9ng, da dang h6a theo chiesu sau, da clang h6a 1oi the so sanh; Tinh toan mirc da clang hoa va phan tich xu huang da dang Ma mat hang xuat khau cila Viet Nam nhung nom qua Rut nhan dinh chung ve da clang Ma mat hang xuat khau va cac nguyen nhan anh huong den da clang hoa mat hang xuat khau cua Viet Nam - Phan tich dinh tinh mOi quan he gitta da dang h6a mat hang xuat khau va tang twang kinh to Viet Nam bang phuong phap mO to thOng ka Kat qua cho thay da clang hoa mat hang xuat khau khong chi gOp phan giam thiau nhang rUi ro truac nhung bian dOng tir ben ngodi, tri on dinh thu nhAp tir xuat khau, ma kich thich hog Ong san xuat nu& Oat trian theo huang da clang hon, xuat hien nhieu nganh nghe mai thong qua cac mOi lien kat nguac va lien kat xuoi, ma rOng lai the so sanh sang cac linh \Tv mai ma c6 the dAn den phan 136 ngtiOn luc hieu qua hon - Luang h6a tac &Ong cua da clang h6a mat hang xuat khau den tang truang kinh to Viet Nam Oa tren mo hinh vec to to hOi quy VAR Kat qua nghien thu dinh luting cho thay da dang hoa mat hang xuat khau co anh huang tich cue den tang truang kinh t6 Viet Nam ca ngan han va dai han Dang chu Y, ca clang h6a mat hang xuat khau theo chieu sau va theo chieu rOng deu thfic day tang truang kinh te Tuy nhien da clang Ma mat hang xuat khdu theo chieu sau c6 tac dOng den tang truang kinh to mph hon so vai da dang hoa theo chieu rOng Han naa, tac &Ong cua da clang h6a theo chieu rOng tir nam 2000 tra lai day thap Ilan so voi giai doan dau dOi mai Dieu ham Y rang thai gian tai Viet Nam can phai day mph da clang h6a theo chieu sau - Tir kat qua phan tich, luAn an de xuat quan diem, dinh huang va mot so giai phap thuc hien da clang h6a mat hang xuat khan nham dam bao tang twang kinh to nhanh va ben \rang theo duang thfic day xuat khau cila Viet Nam nhang nam Kk cAu ciia 1u4n an Ngodi phan ma dau, kat luAn, danh muc tai lieu tham khao, plw Luc, luan an gOm chuong Cu the nhu sau: Chuang 1: Ca sa ly luan nghien ciru tac &Ong cua da clang h6a mat hang xuat khau den tang truang kinh t Chnong 2: Thuc trang da clang hoa mat hang xuat khAu cua Viet Nam giai (loan 1991-2011 Chiming 3: Danh gia tac &Ong cua da clang hoa mat hang xuat khau den tang twang kinh to Viet Nam Chuang 4: Dinh huang da clang h6a mat hang xuat khau va cac giai phap thuc hien nham thfic day tang truang kinh to Viet Nam xiv Chuang 1: CO SO LY LUNN NGHIEN Cf1t TAC BONG 0[U BA DANG HOA MAT HANG XUAT KHAU BEN TANG TRUONG KINH TE 1.1 TANG TRVONG KINH TE VA CAC NHAN TO TAC BONG 1.1.1 Khai niem tang trtdrng kinh te' Tang truang kinh to la mot nhfing van de cot lOi cua khoa hoc kinh te nhieu thap nien qua, vi ro rang mot nhang muc tieu quan nhat ma tat ca cac qu6c gia tren the gioi deu theo du6i la tri muc tang truang cao va hop 13'7 Ciing voi th6i gian, quan niem ve tang truang ngdy cang hoan thien hon Den nay, hau het cac hoc gia deu thira nhan dinh nghia tang truang kinh to la su gia tang thu nhap hay san luting thuc to duoc tinh cho toan 110 nen kinh to mot thOi gian nhat dinh, thuOng la mot nam [10] Tang truang kinh t6 co the bieu thi bang s6 tuyet doi (quy mo tang truang) hoac s6 tucmg d6i (t6c dO tang truang) Quy mo tang twang phan anh sty gia tang nhieu hay it, the (10 tang truang duoc sir dung veri 3'7 nghia so sanh Wong d6i va phan anh su gia tang nhanh hay cham gicra cac thai kST Nhu vay, ban chat cila tang truang kinh to la phan anh su thay d6i ve luting cua nen kinh te Nhung su thay dOi chira dung hai thuOc tinh, hay not cach khac la hai mat dm tang truang kinh te dO la mat s6 luting va mat chit luting Mat so hthng ciia tang truang kinh to la bieu hien ben ngodi cua su tang twang, no the hien a khai niem ve tang truang va duoc phan anh thong qua cac chi tieu danh gia quy mo va the dO tang truang thu nhap Neu quy mo va the dO tang cua cac chi tieu phan anh tong thu nhap va thu nhap binh quan dau ngued cao, có the nOi dO la bieu hien tich cuc ve mat luting ciia tang truang kinh te Mat chjt luting ctia tang frith/1g kinh to la thuOc tinh ben cua qua trinh tang truang kinh to (con s6 luting tang twang la bieu hien be ngoai ciia tang truang) the hien qua cac chi tieu phan anh hieu qua dat duoc mat s6 luting dm tang truang va kha nang tri no dai han Nhu vay neu xet mat luting ciia tang truang, nguai to thuong quan tam cau h6i: tang truang duoc bao nhieu? nhieu hay it? nhanh hay cham? thi nhang cau hOi lien quan den mat chat luting tang twang lai la: (1) kha nang tri cac chi tieu tang twang the nao? (2) cai gia phai tra cho viec dat dugc cac chi tieu ay la bao nhieu? De phat trien ben yang, cac qu6c gia tren the gioi, nhat la cac qu6c gia Bang phat trien deu quan tam den chat luting tang twang va dat muc tieu khong ngimg nang cao chat luting tang twang kinh te Viec quan tam den mat chat luting tang twang lai la co hOi de dat muc tieu ve s6 luting dat Ngugc 14.i mat s6 lugng dm tang truang lai tao nhang ho trg v6 vat chat cho viec huang tai chat lugng tang truang tat hon Nhu vay, s6 lugng va chat luting cda tang truang la hai mat cUa mat van d6 Tuy vay, moi giai doan phut tri6n khac va tit)/ theo sir lira chon m6 hinh phut tri6n ma vi tri cua mat hai mat dugc dat khac (i) Thong thuang, giai doan dau dm qua trinh phut tri6n, de tao nhung net khoi sac nhanh chong cho n6n kinh t6, hinh nhang ti6n d6 vat chat, dang lgc co ban cho viec giai quy6t nhang lien ba xa hai sau Phan lan cac nuarc dang phut tri6n d6u có nhan manh nhi6u hon den mat s6 lugng ctia tang truang va nhiem vu truck mat thuang dat la lam th6 nao cai thien dugc cac chi tieu phan anh quy ma va t6c tang truang Do quan tam d6n mat luting tang truang nhi6u hon nen nhi6u truang hop phai 1)6 qua y'eu cau cila chat lugng tang truang, hay nOi cach khac mat s6 lugng va chat luting gun nhu la y6u to mang tinh danh doi (ii) Giai doan sau, cac chi tieu tang truang da dat dugc mirc nhat dinh, thi mai quan tam d6n van d6 chat lugng cita tang truang Van de giai doan khong phai la dat dugc cac chi tieu tang truang la bao nhieu ma la tinh hi'eu qua va sir Wen vung cua cac chi tieu ay nhu th6 nao Vi tri ngdy cang nang cao cua mat chat lugng tang truang la hoan town phii hop vai xu th6 tang truang dui han cua n6n kinh t6, clang nhu phu hap vai muc tieu Oat tri6n b6n viing dat cho m6i qu'6c gia Viec xac dinh vi tri va m6i quan he gifra hai mat ciia tang truang nhu phan tich a tren chi mang tinh chat tuong d6i va phu thuac vao nhi6u y6u to nhu: tinh trang phut tri6n kinh t6-xa hai cila dat nuoc; bai canh qu6c Trong chin lugc phut tri6n kinh t6-xa th; quan di6m va chinh such cita Chinh hai ciia Viet Nam den nam 2020, chUng to xac dinh giai quy6t m6i quan he Oita mat s6 Luang va chat Luang tang truang theo huang dung hOa, &mg thai va hop ly Chuy6n d6i m6 hinh tang truang tir chit y6u phut tri6n theo chi6u rang sang phut tri6n hap ly gift chi6u rang va chi6u sau, vira ma rang quy ma, vira chu nang cao chat luting, hieu qua, tinh b6n yang [2] 1.1.2 MOt so think thu nh4p va tang truth-1g kinh to chit ye'u 1.1.2.1 M'Otthirov thu nhtfp chii y'reu Trong n'en kinh t6 thi twang, thuac dugc dung d6 danh gia thu nhap cila n6n kinh to la cac chi tieu he th6ng tai khoan qu6c gia (SNA) Dirng tren goc toan ba n'en kinh te, thu nhap (hay san lugng) thuang dugc the hien duai clang gia tri: có the la tong gia tri thu nhap (san lugng), hoac có the la thu nhap (san lugng) binh quan tren dau nguai Cac chi tieu gia tri phan anh thu nhap theo he th6ng tai khoan qu6c gia bao g6m: tong gia tri san xuat (GO); tong san pham qu6c not (GDP); tong san pham qu6c dan (GNP), tong thu nhap qu6c dan (GNI); d6 chi tieu GDP la chi tieu thuerng duqc sir dung ph6 bidn nhat [10] - Tang gia tri san xuat (GO) T6ng gia tri san xuat la tong gia tri san pham vat chat va dich vu dugc tug nen mot qudc gia mgt th6i kS7 nhdt dinh (thuerng la mgt tren pham vi lanh th6 nam) Day chinh la tong doanh thu ban hang thu dugc tir cac don vi, cac nganh toan b6 ndn kinh to qu6c dan, hoac tong gia tri san xuat c6 th'd tinh true tidp tir san xuat va dich vu g6m chi phi trung gian (IC) va gia tri gia tang (VA) tir san pham vat chat va dich vu dO ndn kinh to qu6c dan - Tong san pham quac not (GDP) T6ng san pham qudc not lung tong gia tri cua cac hang h6a va dich vu cu6i cung dugc san xuat pham vi lanh th6 mgt qu6c gia mot died kST nhat dinh (thugng la mgt nam) Nip" vay, GDP la thu nhap tao them tir tat ca cac hog Ong san xuat-kinh doanh mot, cho du chi' the san xuat-kinh doanh la ngueri nuarc ngoai hay ngueri nuac Dd tinh GDP c6 ba cach tidp can co ban la tir san xuat, tieu dung va phan phdi Tier]) can tir san xuat: GDP la gia tri gia tang tinh cho toan 116 ndn kinh td N6 dugc bang tong gia tri gia tang ctia tat ca cac don vi san xuat-kinh doanh thutmg tru ndn kinh td Hay nOi each khac no dugc xac dinh bang tong gia tri san xuat (GO) trir di chi phi trung gian (IC) (1.1) Nhu vay GDP = GO - IC Tiep can tir thu nhap: GDP dugc xac dinh tr'en co so* cac khoan hinh thu nhap va phan phi thu nhap ran dau, g6m thu nhap cua ngueri co sire lao &Ong clued hinh thirc tidn cung, tidn luang (W), thu nhap cua ngugi c6 dat cho thud (R); thu nhap cua ngueri c6 tidn cho vay (In); thu nhap rung ciia cung ty (Pr); khau hao tai san c6 dinh (Dp) va cudi cung la thud kinh doanh (thud gian thu Ti) NglifalaGDP=W+R+Pr+In+Dp+Ti (1.2) Tiep can tic chi tieu: GDP la tong chi tieu cho tieu dung cudi cung cua cac 116 (C); chi tieu cua chinh phu (G); dau to cua doanh nghidp (I) va chi tieu qua thuang mai qu'dc t6 (xuat khAu (X) — nhap khau (M)) Nhu vay GDP = C + I + G + (X-M) (1.3) - Tang san pham quac dan (GNP) va tang thu nhap quac clan (GNI) T6ng san pham qudc dan (GNP) la chi tieu luemg tong gia tri bang tidn cua hang hOa va dich vu cudi cung ma mgt qu6c gia san xuat mot theri kST (thugng la mgt nam) bang cac ydu to san xuat cita minh Trong he th6ng tai khoan qu6c gia 1993, chi tieu tang thu nhap quac dan (GNI) dugc sir (long thay the cho chi tieu tang san pham quac dan (GNP) Ve not dung GNI va GNP la nhu nhau, nhien GNI tiep can duai goc dO thu nhap chir khong tier, can duai goc dO san pham san xuat nhu GNP Voi khia canh dO chimg ta thay: GNI la tong thu nhap tir san pham vat chat va dich vu cu6i ding cong dan cua mot nuac tao nen mot khoang died gian nhat dinh Chi tieu bao gom cac khoan hinh thu nhap va phan phi lai thu nhap lan dau c6 tinh den cac khoan nhan to ntrac ngodi ve va chuyen nu& ngodi Nhu vay GNI hinh to GDP tier, can theo gOc dO thu nhap va dugc dieu chinh theo so chenh lech thu nhap nhan to vai ntrac ngodi GNI dugc xac dinh bang cong thirc: Chenh lech gift thu Chenh lech gith thu nhap cua nguai lao &Ong Viet nhap nhan dugc tir Thu nhap quoc gia = GDP + Nam a nuac ngodi giri ve + ntrac ngoai vai thu (1.4) nhap hati tra cho (GNI) va thu nhap cua nu& ngodi a Viet Nam giri nuarc ngodi Sly khac ve luang gift GDP va GNI la a phan chenh lech thu nhap nhan to vai mac ngodi O cac nuac dang phat trien thi GNI thuang nh6 holt GDP vi thong thirang phan chenh lech nhan gia tri am - Thu nhap binh quan clju ngtroi De danh gia xac thirc holt tang truang kinh to cua mot qu6c gia clued g6c dO mirc sang dan cu va so sanh mire sang gifra cac ntrac, ngtrai ta thuang sir dung cac chi tieu binh quan dau ngtrai, chang han nhu GDP binh quail dau ngtrai (hay GNI binh quan dau ngtrai) Tong san pham nuefc binh quan dau ngtrai (VND/ngtrai) TOng san pham nuac (GDP) nam (tinh bang VND) (1.5) Dan s6 trung binh ciing nam Quy mo va t6c dO tang thu nhap binh quan dau ngtrai la nhimg chi bao quan phan anh va la tien de de nang cao mire song dan cu not chung Su gia tang lien toc voi t6c dO ngdy cang cao cila chi tieu la dau hieu the hien sly tang twang ben virng va no dugc sir dung viec so sanh mirc song dan cu gifra cac qu6c gia khac 1.1.2.2 Do hrlYng tang tricong kinh to Trong phan tich kinh te, de phan anh mac dO mo rOng quy mo nen kinh te, khai niem t6c (10 tang twang kinh t6 thuang dugc sir dung Day la tST le phan tram giita thu nhlap (hay san lugng) tang them cila thai kST nghien cim so vai mirc thu nhap (san lacing) cua thai ky truac d6 hoac thai ky g6c Chi tieu dugc sir dung vai y nghia so sanh tuang d6i va phan anh su gia tang nhanh hay cham Oita cac thai ky Chi tieu dugc xac dinh nhu sau: gt = Yt Yt-1 v (1.6) x 100% t-1 Trong dO: gt la t6c d'6 tang truong nam t Yt la GDP ho4c GNI thuc to nam t tinh theo gia nam co so Yt-i la GDP hoac GNI thuc t6 nam t-1 tinh theo gia nam co so Do luting teic d6 tang truong binh quan cho ca tiled ky, dugc xac dinh bang cong thirc sau: d GDP = n-1 GDPn GDP° x 100 (1.7) Trong do: dGDP la t6c d6 tang truong GDP binh quan cho ca tiled ky to nam g6c d'6n nam thir n GDPn la GDP cu6i nam thir n cua thai ky nghien ciru GDP° la GDP nam g6c cua thai ky nghien ciru T6c d6 tang truong kinh to dugc tinh bang cong thirc tren chua phan anh dung tang truong kinh to cua mot ntrOc vi no khong phan anh dugc su gia tang dan s6 De danh gia xac thuc hon tang truong kinh to cua mgt qu6c gia clued ggc d6 mac song dan cu va so sanh mire song glib cac nuac, nguai to thuang sir dung cac chi tieu binh quan dau nguai, chang han nhu GDP binh quan dau nguai (hay GNI binh quan dau nguai) Khi do, t6c d'6 tang truong thu nhap binh quan dau nguai php thuc hai ykt to: te)c d6 tang truong GDP va t6c d6 tang truong dan s6: T6c d6 tang truong GDP/nguai T6c d6 tang truong GDP T6c gia tang dan s6 (1.8) Neu t6c d6 tang truong GDP bang ho4c thap hurl t6c d6 tang truong dan s6 thi dieu co nghia la khong co su gia tang ve mat lugng ctia tang truong tren goc d6 binh quan dau ngtr6i Chi mot nen kinh t6 co sty vuot tr6i ctia gia tang GDP so vai tang truong dan s6 thi n'en kinh t6 mai co tang truong thu nhap binh quan dau ngtred, hay not each khac, nguai dan cna nuac mai c6 su tang truong ve thu nhap [...]... truang kinh t6 V* Nam Ngodi ra, trong met se nghien cfru ve hei nhap quec to cita Viet Nam nhu: Bao cao "Danh gia tac &Ong tong the khi Viet Nam tra thanh thanh vien cua WTO den thay doi xuat nhap khau va the che" cua Du an ho try chinh sach thuang mai da bien (MUTRAP); Bao cao "Mc deng cna hei nhap kinh t6 quec to doi vai nen kinh to sau ba nam Viet Nam gia nhap WTO cna Vien Nghien cfru guar' 1)'T kinh. .. hang xuat khau den tang twang kinh to Viet Nam Chuang 4: Dinh huang da clang h6a mat hang xuat khau va cac giai phap thuc hien nham thfic day tang truang kinh to Viet Nam xiv Chuang 1: CO SO LY LUNN NGHIEN Cf1t TAC BONG 0[U BA DANG HOA MAT HANG XUAT KHAU BEN TANG TRUONG KINH TE 1.1 TANG TRVONG KINH TE VA CAC NHAN TO TAC BONG 1.1.1 Khai niem tang trtdrng kinh te' Tang truang kinh to la mot trong nhfing... t6c d'6 tang truong nam t Yt la GDP ho4c GNI thuc to nam t tinh theo gia nam co so Yt-i la GDP hoac GNI thuc t6 nam t-1 tinh theo gia nam co so Do luting teic d6 tang truong binh quan cho ca tiled ky, dugc xac dinh bang cong thirc sau: d GDP = n-1 GDPn GDP° x 100 (1.7) Trong do: dGDP la t6c d6 tang truong GDP binh quan cho ca tiled ky to nam g6c 0 d'6n nam thir n GDPn la GDP cu6i nam thir n cua thai... den ciia da d4ng hoa mit • tfingirtning kinh to Viet Nam, Phiro'ng phap nghien cfru dinh luvng: (Mo hinh vec to to hoi quy VAR) Nghien cull cac dinh hweeng phat trial chung ciia WO Nam Nghien cum xu the Oat trien cila n en kinh to toil' au •• I • V Axuat A quan them, X dinh htthng va giai phi") thin hien da 4ng hoa mat X nham thtle day X tang truirng kinh to vqt Nam A khan hang xuat 6 Y nghia khoa hoc... clang h6a mat hang xuat khau den tang truang kinh to Viet Nam Oa tren mo hinh vec to to hOi quy VAR Kat qua nghien thu dinh luting cho thay da dang hoa mat hang xuat khau co anh huang tich cue den tang truang kinh t6 Viet Nam ca trong ngan han va dai han Dang chu Y, ca clang h6a mat hang xuat khau theo chieu sau va theo chieu rOng deu thfic day tang truang kinh te Tuy nhien da clang Ma mat hang xuat... tang twang kinh to nhanh va ben \rang theo con duang thfic day xuat khau cila Viet Nam trong nhang nam 7 Kk cAu ciia 1u4n an Ngodi phan ma dau, kat luAn, danh muc tai lieu tham khao, plw Luc, luan an gOm 4 chuong Cu the nhu sau: Chuang 1: Ca sa ly luan nghien ciru tac &Ong cua da clang h6a mat hang xuat khau den tang truang kinh t Chnong 2: Thuc trang da clang hoa mat hang xuat khAu cua Viet Nam giai... khau den tang twang kinh te - Phan tich, danh gia mirc 0, xu huong da clang hoa mat hang xuat khau cna Viet Nam tir dei mai den nay - Danh gia tac &Ong cna da clang hoa mat hang xuat khau cl6n tang truang kinh t6 Viet Nam trong tiled gian qua xi - De xuat dinh huang va mat s6 giai phap thuc hien da clang hoa mat hang xuat khau nham dam bao tang truang nhanh va ben \Tang cda nen kinh te theo con duang... dang h6a mat hang xuat khau cna Viet Nam Tuy nhien nhung nghien dm nay chi xem xet tac deng cna hei nhap kinh t6 qu6c to den da clang h6a mat hang xuat khau chu khong trvc tier, phan tich mire 0, xu twang da clang h6a mat hang xuat khau dm Viet Nam Han nib, cac nghien ciru tren ding chua xem xet tac &Ong cda da clang hoa mat hang xuat khau den tang truang kinh to Viet Nam Do do viec nghien cfru da clang... clang h6a mat hang xuat khau den tang truang kinh te Tren co s6 do xay dung &roc khung phan tich 1y thuyet va chi dinh &roc mo hinh, phuong phap dinh luong phii hop de danh gia tac d9ng cua da clang hoa mat hang xuat khau d6n tang tnrong kinh to Vi't Nam trong nhcing nom d6i moi vim qua - Phan tich thgc trpg xuat khau va da clang hoa mat hang xuat khau cua Viet Nam bao da clang h6a theo chiL r9ng, da dang... clang hoa va phan tich xu huang da dang Ma mat hang xuat khau cila Viet Nam trong nhung nom qua Rut ra nhan dinh chung ve da clang Ma mat hang xuat khau va cac nguyen nhan anh huong den da clang hoa mat hang xuat khau cua Viet Nam - Phan tich dinh tinh mOi quan he gitta da dang h6a mat hang xuat khau va tang twang kinh to Viet Nam bang phuong phap mO to thOng ka Kat qua cho thay da clang hoa mat hang