ảnh hưởng của thiên tai đến sản xuất nông nghiệp hộ nông dân việt nam

BO GIl' TR D~ yA Dt' T a TP HO 'Hi l1:G D~I HQC III H ANH HuONG eVA THIEN TAl DEN SAN XUAT NONG NGH~P Q NONG DAN VI~T NAM , _ Chuyen ngfmh Ma s6 chuyen nganh L _ : Kinh A " _ ta hQc : 60 03 I 01 T C -' nT ~ 1Q TlIlIdHG ~AI 0' Md TP.HCM TH VI~N PGS.TS NGUYi1:N MINH Bite Lin CAM f)OAN Toi cam doan rrmg lu~n van th~c si: "Anh hU'Ong ctia thien tai It@n san xudt nong nghi~p hq nong dan Vi~t Nam" la bai nghien CUu cua chinh toi Ngoai trir nhilng tai li~u tham khao dUQ'c trich ddn lu~n van nay, toi xin cam doan r~ng toim phAn hay nhilng phAn nh6 cua lu~ van chua timg duQ'c cong b6 ho~c duQ'c sir d\lI1g de nh~n brmg cAp a nhung nO'i khac Khong co san phdmlnghien CUu nao cua nguai khac duQ'c sir d\lllg lu~ van rna khong duQ'c trich dan theo dung quy djnh Lu~n van chua bao gia duQ'c n(>p de nh~n bAt ky brmg cAp nao t~i cac twang Tp d~i hoc ho~c H6 Chi Minh, cO' sa dao ~o khac niim 2014 Tac gia Nguy~n HAng Ron LOI CAM ON D~ Uti lu~n van th~c si: "Anh huang cua thien tai d@n san xu't nong nghifp hQ nong dan Vift Nam", hi k~t qua qua trinhhQc ~p va ren luy~n Clla tac gia su6t thai gian theo hQc chuong trinh dao t~o sau d~i hQc t~i truang D~i hQc M6' Tp.HCM D~ d~t duQ'c k~t qua nay, la nha Quy Thdy, Co clla truang D~i hQc M6' Tp.HCM da: h~t long t~ t\lY, truy~n d~t nhung ki~n thuc, kinh nghi~m quy bau su6t thai gian tac gia theo hQc t~i truang, d~c bi~t la Pho giao su, Ti~n si Nguy~n Minh Duc da: t~n tinh huang ddn va gop y cho tac gia su6t qua trinh th\lc hi~n lu~ van th~c si Ben c~nh tac gia cling xin gfri lai cam O'i d~n Thdy, Co, d6ng nghi~p truang D~i hQc Tai Chinh - Marketing da: cung cAp cho tac gia nhi~u tai li~u quy va co nhi~u gop y giup toi hoan lu~ van Cu6i cung tac gia xin chan cam on d~n gia dinh, b~ be, cac b~n hQc vi en cao hQc cung khoa da: chia se cho tac gia nhung ki~n thuc va kinh nghi~m su6t qua trinh hQc t~p va th\lc hi~n lu~ van Trong qua trinh th\lc hi~n, m~c du da: c6 gang h~t suc d~ hoan thi~n lu~ van, trao d6i va ti~p thu nhung y ki~n dong gop Clla Quy Thdy, Co va b~ be, tham khao nhi~u tai li~u, song khong tranh kh6i nhung sai sot, h~n ch~ nhAt djnh RAt mong nh~n duQ'c nhung y ki~n dong gop Clla Quy Thdy, Co va b~n dQc Xin chan cam on.! 11 TOM TAT San xuAt nong nghi~p nhtlng nam vila qua c6 nhllng bu&c ti~n vuQ1 b~c, chling ta khong nhung giAi quy~t duqc phfut Ian nhu cAu nu&c rna c6 xuAt khAu Tren thl,lc t~, ho~t de>ng san xuAt nong nghi~p ph\1 thue>c vao tl,l nhien nhu: dAt dai, ngu6n nu&c, h~u, ch~ de> thuy van, nhi~t de>, de> Am Day Ia nganh chiu Anh hUOng rAt Ian til Sl,l bi~n d6i cua thai ti~t nhtlng nam gfut day nhu bao lan, n&ng n6ng gay g~t, Iii l\1t, h~n han D~ cung cAp them thang tin nhfun (mg ph6 v&i thien tai va thl,lc hi~n phat tri~n nang nghi~p b~n vtlng n6i chung va cay Ilia n6i rieng cAn phai c6 nhtlng nghien c(ru chuyen sau v~ anh hUOng cua thien tai d~n san xuAt nang nghi~p Cho d~n nay, nhin chung, cac nghien c(ru cua Qu6c t~ va Vi~t Nam da chi ra: (I) cac bang chung thien tai anh hUOng d~n san xuAt nong nghi~p, va (2) cac muc de> anh hUOng khac cua thien tai d~ san xuAt nang nghi~p Tuy nhien, hAu h~t cac nghien c(ru tru&c day chi ti~p c~n duqc dll 1i~u cheo cho nen cac nghien cuu m&i chi t~p trung lam ro anh hUOng cua thien tai tr~ng thai tinh, t~i thai di~m nhAt dinh rna chua th~ xem xet anh hUOng qua thai gian V &i m\1C dich b6 sung vao kho tang nghien cuu anh hUOng cua thien tai nhllng bang chung thl,lc nghi~m, rna hinh kinh t~ luqng va cac gqi y chinh sach til nhtlng truang hqp cua san xuAt Ilia Vi~t Nam, lu~n van thl,lc hi~n mo hinh phftn tich h6i quy dl,la tren dll li~u bang til s6 li~u Di€u tra H{j gia i1inh ti€p cl)n ngufm l~c (VARHS) hai nam 2008 va 2010 Day la ngu6n dll li~u Vi~n Khoa hQc Lao de>ng va Vi~n Chinh sach va Chi~n luqc Phat tri~n Nang nghi~p Nang than (IPSARD) thl,lc hi~n hai nam 2008,2010 v&i Sl,l tai trq cua DANIDA t~i 12 tinh (bao g6m: Ha Tay cli, Phli ThQ, Lao Cai, Di~n Bien, Lai Chau, Ngh~ An, Quang Nam, Khcinh Hoa, D~k L~k, D~ Nang, Lam D6ng va Long An) Vi~c ti~p c~ duqc ngu6n dll li~u bang cho phep lu~n van xem xet anh hUOng cua thien tai qua thai gian, sau ki~m soat cac y~u t6 thue>c v~ he> gia dinh bAt bi~ theo thai gian K~t qua c6 duqc se lam co s6 cho vi~c t6ng hqp, nh~n xet va dua nhllng khuy~n nghi d~n co quan quan Iy nha nu&c lien quan 111 MVCLVC Trang LOi cam doan • • •• • •••• •• •••• I LM cam an 11 , Tom tAt 111 M\lC l\lc iv Danb m\lc biob va c.tA thj vii ? ••• D an h mvc baug VIII Danb m\Ie til" vi~t tAt x CHUONG 1: T6NG QUAN VE NGHIEN cUu 1.1 Ly nghien cuu vAn d€ 1.2 nghien cuu 1.3 M\lc tieu nghien cuu 1.4 Cau hoi nghien cuu 1.5 Ubi tuqng va phgm vi nghien c(ru 1.5.1 Ubi tuqng nghien c(ru 1.5.2 Phgm vi nghien CUu 1.6 Phuang phap nghien c(ru va ngu6n dft li~u 1.6.1 Phuang phap nghien c(ru 1.6.2 Ngu6n dft li~u 1.7 Ynghia cua lu~ van 1.8 K8t cAu cua lu{in van K8t 1u{in chuang IV CHUO'NG 2: CO SO LY THUYET vA MO HINH NGHIEN cUu 2.1 CO' sa Iy thuy€t 2.1 Cae nghien elm v€ anh huang eua thien tai d€n ho~t dQng nong '~ ~ "" 10 ngh u;p tren thI.e glO'l 2.2 Cae nghien elm v€ Anh huang eua thien tai d€n ho~t dOng san xu~t nong nghi~p t~i Vi~t Narn 11 ~ xet , ve~, , thl,le ngh'" eae ngh'~ len eUll H;rn 12 Nh ~n K€t Iu~n Chuang 13 , "YTTT CHUO'NG 3: PHUO'NG PHAP NGHIEN Cu u 14 3.1 PhuO'ng phap phan tieh h6i quy dtlli~u bang 14 3.2 Mo hinh kinh t€ IUQ'llg nghien elm anh huang eua thien tai d€n san xu~t Iua eua hQ nang dan 18 3.3 Dtlli~u nghien euu 22 3.3.1 Ubi tuQ'llg va ph~rn vi 22 3.3.2 NQi dung thu th~p 22 3.3.3 M~u nghien elm 22 3.3.4 Xu Iy sb li~u 23 K€t Iu~ Chuang 30 TT' J : ? " ? _ CHu O'NG : KET QUA VA THAO LU~N 31 4.1 Khat quat v€ san xu~t eay lua eua hO nang dan thea k€t qua di€u tra VAru-IS08-10 31 4.2 Cae d~ng thien tai ehinh anh huang d€n san xu~t eay Iua eua hQ nang dan thea k€t qua di€u tra VARHS08-10 34 4.3 Phan tieh anh huang eua thien tai d€n san xu~t Iua eua hQ nang dan tir k€t qua di€u tra VARHS08-10 38 4.3.1 Thbng ke rna ta 38 v 4.3.2 K€t qua phan tich h6i quy va thao lu~ 43 4.4 Cac bi~n phap he> nong dan thuOng su d\mg d~ (eng ph6 d6i v6i thien tai thea k€t qua di~u tra V ARHS 2008-2010 45 K€t lu(in chuang 53 CHUONG 5: KET LU~N VA KHUYEN NGHl 54 5.1 K€t lu(in 54 5.2 Khuy€n nghi 56 ,- , TAl LI~U THAM KHA '57 PHV LVC 65 Phl) ll)c AI: Bang cau hoi di~u tra V ARHS 2008 65 Phl) Il)c A2: Bang cau hoi di~u tra V ARHS 20 I 76 Phl) Il)c A3: Xu ly dfr li~u di bi~t (outliers) 87 A3.1 Dfr li~u na.m 2008 87 A3.2 Dfr li~u na.m 2010 88 Phl) Il)c A4: K€t qua ki~m tra d~c tinh cua mo hinh 89 A4.l Ki~m tra hi~n tUQ'ng da ce>ng tuy€n 89 A4.2 Ki~m tra hi~n tm;mg phuong sai khong d6ng d~u 90 Phl) ll)c A5: K€t qua phan tich h6i quy dit li~u bang 90 A5.1 K€t qua ban dau 90 A5.2 K€t qua cu6i ciulg 91 Phl) Il)C A6: Qua trinh xu Iy dit li~u 92 A6.1 Tl;\o bi€n manh d trQ' chinh pM hel trQ' i ) Yay tien ill ngan hang 0.42 89.25 Vay tien ill ngan hang 24 5.36 54.46 Yay ti8n ill nguon khac 20 1.04 90.29 Yay ti€n ill nguon khac 1.12 55.58 0.22 55.80 I i DuQ'c bao hiem totm DuQ'c hoan tra khoan yay I Lao dQng them Dung tien tiet ki~m I 0.47 90.76 29 99 1.51 5.14 50 2.60 92.26 97.40 100.0 1,926 100 Cac bi~n pbiip khac r6n2cQng DuQ'c hoan tra kho{m yay Lao dQng them Dung tien ti8t ki~m 1.34 57.14 75 74 16.74 16.52 73.88 90.40 Cac bi~n phap khac 43 9.60 100.00 Tong c6n2 448 100 Ngu6n: Tinh tOlin ella tae gia fir VARHS08-10 K~t qua di8u tra VARBS nam 2010 eho thAy d6i v6i bi~n phap rna he> nong dan cho la quan trQng nhAt, e6 d~n gftn 44% s6 he> ehQn bi~n phap ghim chi tieu, 13% dung ti8n ti~t ki~m d~ (mg ph6, gftn 2% h,ra chQn lam vi~e them d~ c6 thu nh~p bu dAp, va gftn 4% nh~ duqe S\l he> trq eua Chinh phil Thong tin tir bi~n phap quan trQng thfr nhi cho thAy nam 2008 vfut chi co du6i 1% nong dan duqc bao hi~m d6i v6i thi~t h~i cho trfmg lila (Bang 4.12) Bang 4.12: Cae i Bi~o bi~n phap quaD trc;mg ohAt I Khong hun gi phap hQ nong dan sir d\lng frog ph6 vOi thien tai tren manh d§ttr6nglua,2010 s6 quaD Ty I~ sat 523 28.78 CqDg dAD 28.78 86 Bi~D phap quaD trQog ohl quaD Ty I~ sat Kh6ng lam gi 43 COog dAD I 6.96 6.96 i I Giam chi tieu 796 43.81 72.59 Giam chi tieu 223 36.08 43.04 ! i I Ban dAt 0.50 73.09 Ban dAt Ban v~tnu6i 49 2.70 75.78 Ban v~t nu6i 30 4.85 47.90 Ban tai san khac 10 0.55 76.33 Ban tili san khac 10 1.62 49.51 20 1.10 77.44 1.46 50.97 DuQ'c hQ hang ho~c b~ be giupdO' IDrrqc hO hang ho~ ~ b'egtup , dO' 52 i I i Duqc Chinh phu h& trq 80 4.40 81.84 0.11 81.95 23 1.27 83.21 16 0.88 84.09 Duqc cac t6 chfrc phi Duqc Chinh pM h& trq 45 7.28 58.25 1.13 59.39 Yay ti€n ill ngan hang 27 4.37 63.75 Vay ti8n ill ngu6n kha,c 1.46 65.21 0.16 65.37 0.49 65.86 Lao dQng them 48 7.77 73.62 Cho nghi hQc 0.49 74.11 138 22.33 96.44 22 3.56 100.00 618 100.00 Duqc cac t6 chfrc phi chinh pM h& tfq Yay tien ill ngan hang Yay tien ill ngu6n khac chinh pM h& tfq I Duqc bao hiem toan I ! Duqc hoan tra khoan yay ILao dQng them 33 1.82 85.91 i I D'ung tIen l k'A tlet I~m I Cac bi~n pbAp khac T6ngcQng I Dung ti8n tiSt ki~m 233 12.82 98.73 23 1.27 100.00 Cac 1,817 100.00 bi~n pbAp kbAc TAng cQng I I Nguim: Tinh toem eua tae gia tir VARHS08-JO K~t luin Chtr01lg K€t qua phan tich hbi quy Chuang cho thAy: Thi~t h\\i tu thien tai nrun ngmii va nam d~u co anh huang tieu C\lC d€n san xuat Ilia cua he> nong dan t\\i muc thfmg ke thong thuang Di€u phan rum aM huang dai d~ng cua thien taL - Bi€n c6 thien tai nam hi~n hanh khong co y nghia th6ng ke mo hinh Phan tich k€t di€u tra VARHS08-1 cho thay cac bi~n phap ma he> nong dan thuang sir d\lllg thi da phan Ia chQn bi~n phap gh\m chi tieu dung ti€n ti€t ki~m d~ Ung pho, h,ra chQn lam vi~c them d~ co thu nh~p bu d~p, ho~c cha nh~n dugc S\l h6 trQ' cua Chinh phu Ty I~ he> nong dan dUQ'c bao hi~m d6i v&i thi~t h\\i cho trbng Iua v~n rAt thap (du&i 1% nong dan) o 53 CHUONG 5: KET LuAN vA KHUVEN NGHI 5.1 K~t lutlo: Nghit~n Clru m\y xern xet imh hu6ng Clla thien tai d~n san xufrt nong nghi~p cua nong hQ Vi~t Narn, C\1 th~ la san xufrt hla thong qua vi~c sir d\1ng s6 li~u di~u tra chi ti~t til VARHS 2008, V ARHS 2010 va hinh nen bQ du li~u bang hai narn 2008 ~ 2010 v&i 1969 quan sat dUQ'c l(lp l~i hai narn Cac thong tin v~ thien tai nhu lil l\1t, h~n han, bao, s~t 16 dfrt duQ'c sir d\1ng d~ xern xet imh hu6ng cua cac d~ng thien tai C\1 th~ d~n san xufrt Ilia Lu?n van cung xern xet cac bi~n phap rna hQ nang dan sir d\1ng d~ d6i ph6 v&i thien tai K~t qua cho thfry bi~n c6 thien tai narn ngoai va narn c6 anh hu6ng tieu C\IC d~n san xufrt Ilia Clla hQ nong dan HQ nang dan g(lp bi~n c6 thien tai c6 th~ khac rnuc dQ chiu anh hu6ng cua thien tai cac d(lc di~rn hQ va kha nang ung ph6 cua hQ K~t qua h6i quy cho thfry thi~t h~i th\Ic t~ til thien tai narn ngoai va narn d~u c6 anh hu6ng tieu C\IC d~n san xufrt Ilia cua hQ nong dan nam di~u tra San xufrt Ilia c6 th~ chiu imh hu6ng khac d6i v&i cac d~g thien tai khac nhu Iii l\1t, h~n han, bao, s~t 16 dfrt Phan tich sau hon v~ anh hu6ng clla cac d~g thien tai C\1 th~ d~n san xufrt Ilia cho thfry bi~n c6 lil l\1t narn va narn ngoai c6 Anh hu6ng tieu C\IC d~n san xufrt Ilia cua narn Nhiing phan tich rno ta v~ bi~n phap hQ nong dan (mg ph6 v&i thien tai tren cac rnanh ruQng tr6ng Ilia cung cfrp b~ng chung v~ tAm quan trQng cua ti~t ki~rn, bao hi€rn K~t qua cho thfry cac hQ gia dinh nong thon Vi~t Narn d6i rn(lt v&i nhung cli s6c thien tai da c6 g~ng hai hoa chi tieu (c~t giarn chi tieu), sir d\1ng ti~t ki~rn phong ngila, yay rnuqn, ban tai san, nh?n S\I h6 trQ' til Chinh phu ho(lc nh?n toan til bao hi~rn Tuy nhien, ty l~ nh?n toan til bao hi€rn rfrt nho.H6 trQ' cua nha nu&c gilip cac hQ gia dinh kh~c ph\1c nhung thi~t h~i thien tai gay nhung se phat sinh chi phi dang k€ cho nha nu&c Rfrt it hQ gia dinh c6 th€ ti~p c?n v&i bao hi€rn nong nghi~p d€ ch6ng dO' nhiing t6n thfrt nhiing cli s6c thien nhien gay Vi V?y, rfrt 54 nhi~u du dia cho S\l phat tri€n cua cac san phAm bao hi€m nong nghi~p d€ giam bAt An san xuAt cua nong dan s5ng t~i cac khu V\lC d~ bi tAn thuong cling nhu giam b61 ganh n~g hd trv cua chJnh phu Trong thang nam 2011, ehinh phu Vi~t Nam eta gim thi~u ehuong trinh thi diem bao hi~m nong nghi~p t~i 20 tinh, ph6 tren kh4p Vi~t Nam Chuong trinh mlY nhk m\le dieh thue dAy S\l phat tri€n cua thi truang bao hi€m nong nghi~p btlng each he; trq 60% phi bao hi€m cho cac hQ gia dinh va 20% cho cac tA chuc lien quan d~n san xu At nong nghi~p Ron nua, hQ gia dinh ngheo se duvc he; trq tir 80% den 100% phi bao hi€m Khuyen khich tham gia bao hi€m nong nghi~p Ia mQt buoc tien quan tr~mg nhung cling cAn tinh den cac vAn d~ khac Vi d\l, bao hi€m nong nghi~p co muc rui ro cao va rAt kho khan uoc IUf,1llg cac Io~i rui ro co th€ bao hi€m duqc, giam sat cac bien c5 d€ bao hi€m va tinh toan ti~n tra bao hi€m Nha nuoc dong vai tro quan trQng vi~c t~o h~ th5ng phap Iy minh b~ch va moi truang c~h tranh can thiet d€ cac cong ty bao hi€m tu nh§n tham gia cung cAp bao hi€m nong nghi~p S\l ph5i hqp ch~t che giua cac cong ty bao hi€m, cac tA chuc tin d\lng va tA chuc nong diin se t~o di~u ki~n thu~ Iqi cho qua trinh MQt di~u cling rAt quan trQng la chuong trinh bao hi€m nong nghi~p d.n huang vao vi~c giam thi€u rui ro cho nong diin hon Ia cac m\lC tieu xa hQi trl,lc tiep Thi truang ho~t dQng co hi~u qua se giam bAt An thu nh~p cua nhUng nong dan bi anh huang, tang lqi nhu~ va giam ngheo Tuy nhien t~m thai cac chuong trinh he; trq hi~n co dong mQt vai tro quan trQng vi~c giup dO' cac hQ gia dlnh d5i rui roo Di~u quan trQng h\ cAn tri va tA chuc l~i cac chuong trinh he; trq nhk t~o di~u ki~n tiep c~ t5t nhAt 55 5.2 Khuy~n nghi: - Cdn nang cao nh~n thuc v~ thien tai va quim ly nii ro thien tai rna tru6c h€t la nang cao nh~n thuc cho cac hQ nong dan - Tdm nhin ho~ch dinh chinh sach cdn tinh d€n imh hu6ng cua thien tai b6i canh bi€n dbi h~u ben c~nh tdm nhin v~ phat tri~n b~n vfrng - can ddu tu cho cac nghien CUu khoa hQc c6 h~ th6ng v~ thich t'rng, giam thi~u anh huang cua thi'en tai va su d\mg cac k€t qua xay d\l'Ilg chinh sach - can ddu tu cho cac nghien cUu khoa hQc v~ cac h~ th6ng san xuat b~n vfrng, ung ph6 t6t v6i thien tai di~u ki~n bi€n dbi h~u - Cdn c6 chinh sach he> trQ' cac h~ th6ng san xuat t'rng ph6 t6t v6i thien tai nhung hi~u qua kinh t€ mang l~i khong cao - Cdn ti€p t\lC phat tri~n han mia bao hi~m nong nghi~p Chinh phu can thay dbi khung he> trQ' phi bao hi~m cho cac hQ khong thuQc di~n ngheo va c~n ngheo Do nh6m d6i tuqng phai t\1' chiu t6i 40% phi bao hi~m phai d6ng thu nh~p cua hQ thap da khong khuy€n khich hQ tham gia bao hi~m Muc he> trQ' c6 th~ xem xet tang tir 60% nhu hi~n t~i len 90% cho cac hQ c~n ngheo va 70%- 80% cho cac hQ thuQc d6i tuqng khong ngheo ho~c c~n ngheo l~i Ben c~nh d6, thay vi he> trQ' phi bao hi~m thong qua can bQ quan ly ngan sach tinh, c6 th~ gay kh6 khan cho vi~c duy~t chi phi he> trQ', ho~c bi that thoat gay lang phi ngan sach, Chinh phu c6 th~ he> trQ' tf\l'C ti€p cho nguai nong dan ho~c doanh nghi~p bao hi~m thong qua s6 hQ'p d6ng bao hi~m duQ'c ky k€t CU6i cung, cdn quy dinh b~t bUQc cac hQ nong dan yay v6n cua Nha nu6c d~ san xuat phai mua bao hi~m cho v~t nuoi, cay tr6ng t~i cac doanh nghi~p bao hi~m da duQ'c chi dinh nh~m bao v~ cho chinh minh va bao v~ cho ngu6n v6n cua Nha nu6c 56 TAl LI~U THAM KHA.O Adejuwon, S, 2004, Impacts ofclimate variability and climate change on crop yield in Nigeria, 20-21 Adger, NW and Kelly, PM, 2000, Theory and practice in assessing vulnerability to climate change andfacilitating adaptation, Climatic Change, 47:325-352 ADPC, 2006, Community based disaster risk management for local authorities, website: Accessed 20 Luly 2012 Alderman, H and Paxson, C, H, 1992, Do the Poor Insure? 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(t?p Thien 9 nam 2009 nam 2010 phai it tin Q2F.dta) k~t hQ'P v6i thong tin nhAt ml}t d~g thien tai manh dAt tr6ng cay lila trong t?p tin (NAT2) (Thien g~p - tai nam 2009 tren manh Q3A.dta (VARHS 2010) nam ngoai) rul}ng tr6ng lila (1 =c6; O=khong) i 10 Thien nam tai HI} duqc ph6ng van Cau h6i pl4q2al_ va p14q2a3_ (t?p 2008 nam 2010 phai it tin Q2F.dta) k€t hqp v6i thong tin nhAt ml}t d~g thien tai manh... di~n tich tr6ng Ilia, CAP la tbng v6n d~u tu cho hang nam cho san xu§t Ilia, MATE la tbng chi phi san xu§t dAu vao d6i vai cay Ilia, NATI chi bi€n c6 thien tai ma h¢ nong dan g~p phai nam di~u tra, NAT2 chi bi€n 18 c6 thien tai hQ nong dan g~p phai truac nam di~u tra mQt nam, NAT3 chi bi~n c6 thien tai hQ nong dan g~p phai truac nam di~u tra hai nam C\l th~ cae bi~n s6 cua mo hinh, ngu6n, cling nhu... hai S\l ki~n thien tai da xay ra trong vong hai nam qua tinh tit thang 7 nam 2008 (t~i thOi di~m di~u tra nam 2010) 24 Thong tin cAn thu th~p w6e tien lit vi~e xay ra thien tai trong nam 2010 e6 th€ Anh hu6ng d€n ho~t dQng tr6ng cay lila eua hQ nong dan Ben e~nh d6, thong tin ve thien tai eua 1 vit nong chiu S\I anh hUOng la r~t cAn thiet Do do, d8 tai "Anh huwg ctia thien tai d~n san xu!t nong nghi~p hQ nong dan Vi~t Nam" da duQ'c chQn d8 nghien Clru lam lu~n van th~c si kinh te hQc 1 1.2 Vin d~ nghien CUU: Lu~ van "AM huang thien tai den san xu§t nong nghi~p hQ nong dan Vi~t Nam" ... luQ'c Phat trien Nong nghi~p Nong thon GSO : Tf>ng C\lC Th6ng ke VARHS08-10 : Di€u tra HQ gia dinh ti8p c~n ngu6n h,rc Vi~t Nam hai nam 2008 va 2010 VARHS2008 : Di€u tra HQ gia dinh ti8p c~n ngu6n h,rc Vi~t Nam nam 2008 VARHS2010 : Di€u tra HQ gia dinh ti8p c~ ngu6n h,rc Vi~t Nam nam 2010 Tp.HCM : Thanh ph6 H6 Chi Minh BSPS : Chuang trinh he> trQ' khu V\lC Doanh nghi~p ARD-SPS : Chuang trinh he> trQ'... tra lai cho cac ciiu hoi chinh: Cac d~ng thien tai chinh nao c6 anh huang den san xu§t Ilia cua hQ nong dan Vi~t a Nam? 2 - Muc dQ lmh hu6ng ctia thien tai d~n slm xuAt lua ctia hQ nang dan Vi~t Nam nhuth~ nao? 1.5 f)6i tllqng va ph~m vi nghien Ctlu: 1.5.1 f)6i tllq'ng nghien CUU: Thien tai la cac hi~n tUQ1lg tl,l nhien bAt thuOng gay thi~t h~i v~ nguai, tai san, mai truOng, di~u ki~n s6ng va cac ho~t ... Thien nam 2007 nam 2008 tai nam 2007 tren manh Q3A.dta (V ARHS 2008) (Thien nam ngoai) ruQng tr6ng lila (1 =c6; O=khong) I tai HQ duqc ph6ng van Cau h6i pl5q2al_ va p15q2a3_ (t?P 12 Thien nam i... cac nam 2006-2010 Nhin chung, thi~t h~i tiI thien tai bi~n dQng giUa cac nam theo di€n bi~n thien tai: vi d1 nam 2006, thi~t h~i thien tai dAi vcri cay lira uac khoang 40 ngim d6ng Vi~t Nam; ... c~n ngu6n h,rc Vi~t Nam hai nam 2008 va 2010 VARHS2008 : Di€u tra HQ gia dinh ti8p c~n ngu6n h,rc Vi~t Nam nam 2008 VARHS2010 : Di€u tra HQ gia dinh ti8p c~ ngu6n h,rc Vi~t Nam nam 2010 Tp.HCM :