PHÂN TÍCH MỐI QUAN HỆ GIỮA THÂM HỤT NGÂN SÁCH VÀ THÂM HỤT TÀI KHOẢN VÃNG LAI TẠI VIỆT NAM GIAI ĐOẠN 1990 - 2013.

B O I H C KINH T TP.HCM P =====0===== NGUY NG I QUAN H GI C I VI T NAM N 1990 2013 H H LU H B O I H C KINH T TP.HCM NGHI P =====0===== NGUY NG I QUAN H GI C I VI T NAM N 1990 2013 H H Chu : 60340201 LU I NG D N KHOA H C : TS NGUY N QU C KHANH L th c hi t qu lu c b t k t c nh ng ph n k th a, tham kh c n c th danh m u tham kh o H Nguy ng M CL C TRANG PH L I CAM M CL C DANH M NG BI U DANH M VI T T T DANH M C PH L C t L IM U T 1.1 T ng quan v u tc 10 .10 11 14 1.2.4 M t s h n d n cho m i quan h gi 17 2.1 g lai .19 2.2 21 2.3 ng qua l i l n 23 tr c ti p v i 24 CH TH C TR I VI T NAM - LI U 33 3.1 Th c tr ki n c i Vi t Nam .33 u 40 3.3 D li u 42 T QU U TH C NGHI M 45 45 - Ki 49 49 50 4.3 Ki nh s pc 53 54 .54 55 4.5 Gi t qu ki nh 57 5.1 T ng k t 59 5.2 Ki n ngh 60 U THAM KH O PH L C DANH M C B NG BI U 27 B ng 3.1 : T l ti - 37 -2013 (%) 38 43 47 49 4.3 52 n 1990 - 2013 33 46 46 48 48 50 51 ng ph n D(CA) 53 ng ph n D(FD) 53 n D(CA) 54 n D(FD) 54 4.11 56 4.12 57 DANH M C T CA FD Y : T ng s n ph m qu c n i (GDP) E:T R t ti n g S : Ti t ki m Spr : Ti t ki m c a khu v Sgov : Ti t ki m c a khu v I a khu v C: a khu v G EX : Xu t kh u IM : Nh p kh u T : Thu Tr : Chuy n giao c c WTO : T ch i Th gi i VAR : Vector Auto Regressive REH : Gi thuy t ng Ricardo h VI T T T DANH M C PH L C t qu AR Ph l c : K t qu ki Ph l c : B ng s li Ph l c : B ng s li 1995 2013 ng ph t, t h t ki m, xu t n , GDP Vi t Nam t nh p kh u c a Vi 2013 n t nv Vi t n 1990 2013 Di n bi n th c ti n cho th y c a Vi t Nam ng di n bi qua u ki h nh m i quan h gi i Vi t Nam VAR K t qu ki m nghi m b u cho th y m i quan h m t chi u t i di ng theo chi t, t cl n U THAM KH O u tham kh o Ti ng Vi t B c- mb o nh n qu c gia B tr c aB nt B T C B m C n n kinh t t trang web c B www.moit.gov.vn http://www.baomoi.com/Tham-hut-kep-va- lai-suat-cao/126/5442485.epi C : T ng c c th www.mpi.gov.vn, B Vi t Nam www.gso.gov.vn, B k ho www.mof.gov.vn C c Qu i ngo i, B n tin N n li u th 10 t b n Th ng Vi n 11 im n kinh t t - 7, B u thu NSNN t i Vi t Nam nh m ph c v chi n n 2011 - 2015 T - i qu c gia B K ho 12 Nguy ng ph thu ns i ro kinh t Vi i h c Kinh t 13 S u Kinh t i h c Qu i - kinh t ng Vi t Nam T n Kinh t , s 14 Th ts 15 Trang web H i quan Vi t Nam http://www.customs.gov.vn/ 16 17 Vi u qu Kh ng ho r u ng ho ng n ng ho ng ti n t - i v i Vi t 18 Vi a M ng x u t i nhi u http://vietbao.vn/Kinh-te/Tham-hut-kep-cua-My-tac-dong-xau-toi-nhieunuoc/10906054/48/ u tham kh o Ti ng Anh 19 Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah, and Hamizun Ismail , and Evan Lau, Twin Deficits Hypothesis and Capital Mobility: The ASEAN-5 Perspective Jurnal Pengurusan 29 (2009) 15-32 20 Abbas, S M Ali, BouhgaVelloso, Ricardo, Fiscal Policy and the Current Account (May 2010) IMF Working Papers, Vol , pp 1-30, 2010 21 Abell, J.D (1990) Journal of Macroeconomics, 12, 81-96 s: An empirical investigation 22 Abiad, Abdul, Daniel Leigh, and Ashoka Mody, 2009 Economic Policy, Vol 24, No 58, pp 241 305 23 ADB (2011), Key indicators for Asia and the Pacific, http://beta.adb.org/keyHYPERLINK "http://beta.adb.org/key-indicators/2011/main"indicators/HYPERLINK "http://beta.adb.org/key-indicators/2011/main"2011HYPERLINK "http://beta.adb.org/key-indicators/2011/main"/main 24 Akbostanci, E., & Tunc, G.I (2001) Turkish twin deficits: An error correction model of trade balance.Economic Research Center (ERC) Working Papers in Economic, No 25 Alkswani, M.A 200 The Twin Deficits Phenomenon in Petroleum Economy: Evidence fromSaudi Arabia Paper Presented at the Seventh Anual conference, Economic research forum (ERF), Amman, Jordan 26 Anorou, E and S Ramchander 198 Curent Acount and Fiscal Deficit: Evidence from Developing Economies of Asia Journal of Asian Economics, Vol.9, ISS.3, p 487- 501.www.pdfactory.com 27 -240 28 Baharumshah, A.Z., Lau, E & Khalid, A M (2006) Testing Twin Deficits Hypothesis for ASEAN-4: Using VARs and Variance Decomposition, Journal of Asia Pacific economy 29 Bordo, M (2006), Globalization and Imbalances in Historical Perspective, Working Paper No 13, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland 30 Beetsma, R Giuliodori, M and Klaassen, F (2008) The effects of public spending shocks on trade balances and budget deficits in the EU, Journal of the European Economic Association, vol 6(2), pp 41423 31 Bilgili, E and F Bilgili,1 Etkiler -Finans Dergisi 13, 4-16 32 European Central Bank Working Paper, No 509 33 Carlos F.M (2 34 Chang, Jui- - Causality Relationships between the Twin Deficits in the Regional Economy University Taiwan 35 Chin-Hong Puah, L Evan, Kim- -current acount deficits 2, 126-135 36 Chinn, Menzie D., and Eswar S Prasad, 2003 -Term Determinants of Journal of International Economics, Vol 59, pp 47 76 37 Coughlin, C.C and M.R Pakko, W Pool (2006), How Dangerous is the US Current Account Deficit? 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Evidence from a developing country Atlantic Economic Journal, 25(1), 80-90 79 Zietz, J., and D K Pemberton (1990) The US Budget and Trade Deficits: A Simultaneous Equation Model Southern Economic Journal 57, 23 34 PH L C - E) - (R)) t qu Ph l c : K t qu ki ng ph n K t qu ki ng ph a bi n D(LOG(Y)) K t qu ki ng ph a bi n D(LOG(R)) ng ph a bi n D(LOG(E)) K t qu ki nh t 2013 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 41,955 76,707 110,532 140,258 178,534 228,892 272,036 313,623 361,017 399,942 441,646 481,295 535,762 613,443 715,307 914,001 1,061,565 1,246,769 1,616,047 1,809,149 2,157,828 2,779,880 3,245,419 3,584,261 6,482 10,037 11,202 10,641 10,965 11,038 11,032 11,683 13,268 13,943 14,167 14,725 15,279 15,509 15,746 15,858 15,994 16,105 16,302 17,065 18,932 20,828 20,828 20,936 19.00% 18.00% 18.00% 12.00% 12.00% 12.00% 9.60% 8.40% 9.60% 5.40% 4.80% 6.24% 7.44% 6.48% 6.96% 7.80% 7.80% 8.19% 13.34% 10.15% 14.00% 14.00% 12.00% 8.50% i 2013 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Ngu n : T ng c c th 72,447 87,394 108,370 117,134 131,171 151,183 170,496 200,145 239,246 290,927 343,135 404,712 532,093 616,735 708,826 830,278 924,495 989,300 1,091,100 K ho 42,577 44,494 80,238 88,758 128,371 134,842 152,977 153,694 160,051 204,589 268,644 316,496 282,739 296,919 457,354 556,234 713,224 967,459 1,082,447 5,448.90 7,255.90 9,185.00 9,360.30 11,541.40 14,482.70 15,029.20 16,706.10 20,149.30 26,485.00 32,447.10 39,826.20 48,561.40 62,685.10 57,096.30 72,236.70 96,905.70 114,529.20 132,200.00 8,155.40 11,143.60 11,592.30 11,499.60 11,742.10 15,636.50 16,218.00 19,745.60 25,255.80 31,968.80 36,761.10 44,891.10 62,764.70 80,713.80 69,948.80 84,838.60 106,749.80 113,780.40 131,300.00 ... thu , sau tr thu Spr = Y - T - C (2,6) V thu b Ti t ki m c th c hi ch gi a c mua s m Tr, Sgov = T - G - Tr (2.7) T ti t ki m qu S = Y - C - G = (Y - T - C) + (T - G - Tr) = Spr + Sgov = I +... t m n 16 Spr = I + CA - Sgov = I + CA - (T - G - Tr) (2.9) px pl CA = Spr - I - (G + Tr - T) (2.10) u th c (G + Tr h ng m y ti t ki a m t qu n t kho n n m cc (G + Tr - T) kinh t ng h th y r... (2007) - Canada Beetsma et al (2007) 28 - Corsetti and Miller (2006) 1980 -2 006 Canada Nomandin (2006) (2004) 29 - n VAR Nomandin (1999) Canada - tr (1999) - Cointegrati 30 C 194 7-1 987; VAR - Mody