Trong chirong nay tap trung vao nghien curu chi phi cua 4 nhan to cau thanh co ca'u von bao g6m: no, c6 phie'u iru tien, lai nhuAn khong chia va co phieu thiromg moi.. Lai nhuan sau thue
Trang 1C hitting 4
c h i phi v 6 n v a c o c a u v 6 n
Phan tfch cac lu6ng tidn chid't kha'u nham h6 trp cho vide ra cac quydt dinh diu tu cung nhu quyd't dinh du toan vdn diu tu Bang vide so sdnh gia tri hidn tai cua cac lu6ng thu nhap theo du tfnh vdi chi phi diu tu, cac nha quan ly co \hi tim dupe ldi giai cho vflin d£ c6 ndn d4u tu hay kh6ng Mdt yd'u td rat quan trong cua qui trinh n&y la x ic dinh dung din ty Id hidn tai hoa (ty Id chid't kha'u), do la chi phi vdn diu tu Chi tidu nay dupe sir dung chu y&i di hoach dinh co ca'u vd'n cung nhu co ca'u tai san
4.1 k h A i n i£ m c h i p h I v 6 n
Bdn phai bang can d<5i kd' todn thi hidn cac ngu6n vd'n cua doanh nghidp Theo cach phan chia ph6 bid'n nhit, ngudn vd'n bao gdm cdc khoan no vd von cua chu No bao gdm no ngan han, no ddi han. Vd'n cua chu cd thd bao g6m v<5n huy ddng bang c6 phidu thucmg, cd phid'u uu tien, lpi nhuan khdng chia Ty trong cua cac ngu6n do trong t6ng ngudn chfnh la co ca'u vdn Bat cur mdt su tang ldn cua t6ng tai san phai dupe tai trp bang vide tang mdt hoac nhi^u yd'u td' ca'u thanh vd'n
V(5n la nhan td cin thi£t cua san xua't Cung nhu bat ky mdt nhan 16 nao kMc, khi huy ddng vd'n, doanh nghidp cin bo ra mdt
chi phi nha't dinh Chi phi cua mdi mdt nhan td' ca'u thanh goi la chi phf nhan td' ca'u thanh cua loai vdn cu th£ dd
C6 th£ hi^u chi phi vd'n la chi phf co hdi cua vide su dung vd'n, dupe tinh bang s6 lpi nhuan ky vong dat dupe trdn vdn diu tu vko
du in hoac doanh nghidp d£ giff khdng 1dm giam sd' lpi nhuan dinh
Trang 2cho chu so hiru Vi du, doanh nghiep A co the vay tien vcri lai suat 10% thl chi phi cua no la 10% Trong chirong nay tap trung vao nghien curu chi phi cua 4 nhan to cau thanh co ca'u von bao g6m:
no, c6 phie'u iru tien, lai nhuAn khong chia va co phieu thiromg moi Chi phi ca'u thanh cua chung dupe ky hieu nhu sau:
Kd: chi phi np tnrdc thue, d6i voi doanh nghiep A la 10%
Kd(l - T): chi phi np sau thue, trong do, T la thue suat thue thu nhap doanh nghiep Doi voi doanh nghiep A vcri T = 40% thi Kd( 1 - T) = 6%
Kp: chi phi cua c6 phie'u uu tien D6'i voi doanh nghiep A, Kp
= 10,3%
Ks: chi phi cua lpi nhuan khong chia D<5i voi doanh nghiep A,
Ks = 13,4%
Ke: chi phi von cd phieu thucmg moi Truong hop doanh nghiep A, Ke = 14%
WACC: chi phi trung binh cua vd'n Neu doanh nghiep mudn tao v6'n moi de tai trp cho viec mo r&ng tai san va duy tri m6t co ca'u v6'n can bang, thi no phai tao ra mot phan np moi, mdt ph£n c6 phie'u uu tien va mot ph£n cd phieu thucmg (lay tu lpi nhuan kh6ng chia hoac phat hanh c6 phieu thucmg mdi) theo cung mdt ty le
4.2 CHI PHI CUA CAC L O A I VON 4.2.1 Chi phi cua np vay
4 2.1.1 Chi phi ncr vay tritac thue
Chi phi np tnrdc thue' (Kd) dirpc tinh toan tren co so lai suat np vay Lai suat nay thucmg dupe £n dinh trong hop d6ng vay ti£n
4.2.1.2 Chi phi no vay sau thue
Chi phi np sau thue' Kd( 1 -T), dupe xac dinh bang chi phi np tru6c thue' trir di khoan tiet kiem nhcr thue Ph£n tiet kiem nay dupe xac dinh bang chi phi tnr6c thue nhan vcri thue suat (KdxT) Vi
110
i
Trang 3vay, neu doanh nghiep A vay tien vdi lai sua't 10% va thue sua't thue thu nhSp doanh nghiep la 40% thi chi phi np sau thud' la 6%
Kd (1-T) = 10%( 1- 0,4) = 6%
Gia tri c6 phid'u cua doanh nghiep ma chung ta mu6n tdi da hoa phu thu6c vao cac lu6ng tidn sau thue Do vay, d£ chung c6 the
so sanh dupe vdi nhau, tat ca cac chi phi von cdn dupe tmh quy vd chi phi sau thud'
4.2.2 Chi phi von chu so huru
4.2.2.1 Chi phi co phieu uu tien
Chi phi cua c6 phieu uu tien (Kp) dupe xac dinh bang cach la'y c<5 turc uu tidn (Dp) chia cho gia phat hanh thuln cua co phidii (Pn) - la gia ma doanh nghiep nhan dupe sau khi da trir chi phi phat hanh
Dp
Kp =
-Pn
Vi du: doanh nghidp A su dung c6 phieu uu tien phai tra 10 dv
c6 turc cho m6i c6 phieu mdnh gia 100 dv W u doanh nghidp ban nhihig c6 phid'u uu tidn mdi vdi gia bang mdnh gia va chiu chi phi phat hanh la 2,5 % gia ban hay 2,5 dv cho m6t c6 phid'u, khoan thu rong se la 97,5 dv vdi mdt cd phi£u VI vay, chi phi c6 phid'u uu tidn cua doanh nghidp A se la:
10 dv
K p = -=10,3%
97,5 dv
4.2.22 Chi phi cua lei nhudn khong chia
Chi phi np vay va chi phi c6 phi£u uu tidn dupe xac dinl^dua trdn thu nhap ma cac nha diu tu ydu c£u dtfi vdi nhOng chting khodn nay Tuong tu, chi phi cua lpi nhuan kh6ng chia ia ty Id c6 turc ma ngudi nlm giu c6 phi£u thudng ydu d u d6i vdi du an doanh
Trang 4nghiep d2u tir bang lai nhuan khdng chia.
Chi phi v6n cua lai nhuan khdng chia lien quan d£n chi phi
co hdi cua von Lai nhuan sau thue' cua doanh nghiep tlhudc ve ngudi ndm giu c6 phie'u Ngudi nam giu trai phie'u dupe bu dap bdi nhung khoan thanh toan lai, ngudi nam gifi c6 phie'u uu tien dupe bu dap bdi c6 turc uu tien, nhung lai nhuan khdng chia thudc v6 ngudi nam giu c6 phie'u thudng Ph£n lai nhuan nky di
bu dap cho ngudi nam giCJ c6 phie'u \6 viec sir dung vd'n cua ho Ban quan ly co thi tra p h ii lai nhuan nay dudi hinh thue c6 turc hoac la dung lai nhuan do d l tai d$u tu N£u ban quan ly quye't dinh kh6ng chia lpi nhuan thi se co mdt chi phi co hdi li&n quan C6 ddng le ra co the nhAn duoc phan lpi nhuan dudi dang c6 tCtc
vk dau tu dudi hlnh thure khac Ty suat lai nhuan ma c6 ddng mong mu<5n tren phan v6n nky chmh la chi phi cua no D 6 la ty suat lai nhuan m i ngudi nam giu c6 ph£n mong dpi ki£m duac tir nhfeigfchoan d£u tu c6 mure rui ro tuang duang
Vi vay, gia sir rang cd ddng cua doanh nghiep A mong dai kie'm duac mdt ty suA't lai nhuan Ks tir khoan tien cua ho Ne'u• • j • • •
doanh nghiep khdng thi dau tu phan lpi nhuan khdng chia de ki£m duac ty suat lai nhuan ft nha't la Ks thi sd' tien nay se duoc tra cho cac c6 ddng di ho diu tu vao nhung tai san khac
Khac voi no va c6 phie'u uu tien, ngudi ta khdng de d£ng do ludng duac Ks Tuy nhien, co thi udc luang duac chi phi v6n c6
ph^n
Mdt c6 phie'u a dilm can bang cua thi trudng thi ty le loi turc yeu ciu Ks cung tuang duang vcri ty le lpi turc mong dpi KAs Hon nura, lpi turc yeu ciu tuang duang vdi mdt lai ttic cua mdt tai sin khdng c6 rui ro (KRF) cdng vdi mure bu rui ro RP, trong khi lpi turc mong dpi d6i vdi mdt c6 phie'u dang tang trudng 6n dinh (Constant growth stock) tuang duang vdi mure sinh ldi cua c6
phi£u (D^/P0) cdng vdi ti le ting trudng mong dpi (g)
Lpi tuc yeu ciu = Lpi turc mong dpi
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Trang 5Ks = Krf + RP = D,/P0 + g = KAs
Vi hai ben tuong ducfng nhau nen chung ta co the’ du doan Ks theo cach Ks = KRF + RP hoac Ks = KAs = D,/P0+ g
Thuc te co ba phucfng phap thucmg duoc su dung d£ xac dinh chi phi lpi nhuan kh6ng chia
Phuong phap CAPM
Phuong phap luong tidn chid't kha'u
Phucmg phap ldy lai sua't trai phid'u cdng vdi phdn thudng rui ro
* Phucmg phap CAPM (md hinh djnh gia tai san tai chinh)
Phucmg phap nay dupe tidn hanh nhu sau:
Bade I : Xac dinh lpi turc cua tai san kh6ng c6 rui ro KRF Lpi tire nay thucmg tucmg duong vdi lai sua't trai phid'u kho bac
Bade 2: Du doan hd sd bd ta cua c6 phieu va sir dung no nhu la
he sd mi ro cua c6 phi£u
Buac 3: Du doan lai sua't mong dpi trdn thi trudng hoac la lpi turc mong dpi ddi vdi c6 phid'u cd d6 rui ro trung binh (KRM)
Buac 4: Thay thd' nhixng gia tri trdn vao phucmg trinh CAPM
de xac dinh ty le lpi tuc mong dpi ddi vdi c6 phid'u dang xet
K* = ^RF + ( Krm - Krf) Pj
Phucmg trinh trdn chi ra cach xac dinh Ks theo m6 hinh CAPM, chi phi cua c6 phid'u dupe xac dinh trdn ca sd lai suift cua trai phieu khong co rui ro (KRF) cong vdi mdt phdn lpi nhuan tucmg ung vdi mire rui ro cua c6 phieu cd mire d6 rui ro trung binh ( K ^ - Krf) va dupe didu chinh theo muc rui ro, tu:c la di£u chinh theo hd s<5 bd ta cua c6 phid'u dd
%
Neu gia su rang KRF = 8%, KRm = 13% va pj = 0,7 Ks cua c6
phid'u nay dupe tinh nhu sau:
Ks = 8% + (1 3 % -8 % ) 0 ,7 = 11,5%
Trang 6Nd'u = 1,0 phan anh c6 phieu rui ro hem mure trung binh thi
ty 16 loi turc ydu ciu Ks se la:
Ks = 8% +(13% - 8%) 1,0 =13%
Phucmg phap CAPM co mdt sd' vain dd cin luu y:
- Kho xac dinh KRF
- Kh6 du doan hd s• • 6 bd ta
- Kho xac dinh phin lpi nhudn bu ddp cho rui ro thi trudng
* Phucmg phap lai suit trai phid'u cdng vdi muc bu rui ro
Mdc du co tmh chu quan trong vide tiep cdn, cac nha phdn tfch thudng du doan chi phi cua c6 phan thudng cua mdt doanh nghidp bdng vide cdng mdt mtic bu rui ro khoang tir 3-5% vdo lai suit np dai han cua doanh nghidp Nhu vdy, nhung doanh nghidp
co rui ro cao, xd'p hang tha'p va co np vdi lai suit cao cung co vdn
c6 phdn vdi chi phf cao
Vf du: N£u mdt doanh nghidp cd lai sud't trai phid'u Id 9% thi chi phi vd'n c6 phieu cd thd du doan nhu sau:
Ks = Lai sud't trai phid'u + Phin thudng rui ro = 9% + 4% = 13%
Mdt doanh nghidp khic cd rui ro cao hon va lai sud't trai phidu
cd thd Id 12%, do dd du doan chi phf v6n c6 phi£u la 16%
Ks = 12% + 4% =16%
VI mtic bd rui ro 4% Id du doan cd thd didu chinh ndn gia tri
du dodn Ks cung cd thd didu chinh
* Phucmg phap luong tien chfc't khau
G ii cua mdt c6 phid'u thudng phu thudc vao c6 turc mong dpi ddi vdi c6 phidu dd Ta cd thd cho ring, gia cua mdt c6 phid'u Po b&ng g ii tri hidn tai cua c ic ddng c6 ttic mong dpi nhan dupe trong tuong lai
Trang 7T i v - Di
Hay: P o = Y - - —
t r (1 + ^ )
Trong do:
Po: La gia hien tai cua co phieu
Di: La co turc mong dai dupe tra vao cu6'i nam thu i
Ks: La chi phi cua co phieu thuong
Neu gia thiet co tuc mong dai tang vdri ti le g, ta co:
Po = DI + D l(l+g) + + D l(l+g)nl
Sau khi bien d6i, phuang trinh tren tra thanh mot cong thue quan trong sau day:
D,
Po =
-Ks - g
Co the giai phuang trinh nay de tim ty le lai tuc yeu c3u doi vdi c6 phieu thucmg
Ks = KAs = — — + g
Phuang phap du doan chi phi von c6 p>h^n nay con duac goi la phuong phap ty 16 co tuc cong vdi ty le tang truang, hoac la phuang phap lu6ng tifcn chiet kha'u Tir day chung ta gia su rang, khi co su c^n bang, co the su dung Ks va KAs de’ thay the cho nhau
Cac nha diu tu su dung su tang truang trong qua khu de du bao ty le tang truang trong tuang lai, do do, n£u su tang truang trong qua khur khong 6n dinh, viec du bao se gap kho khan Trong tnrdng hap nay, nha dau tu co the tham khao du bao cua cac nha phan tich chung khoan
Vi du: Gia su doanh nghiep A ban c6 phi£u vdi gia thi trucmg
la 23 dv, co tuc mong dai cua nam tiep theo la 1,242 dv va ti 16 tang truang mong dai la 8%, ty le lai tuc mong dai - ty le lai turc
Trang 8y€u c£u - chi phi Id nhuan khong chia se la 13,4%
23 13,4% la ty 16 lcfi ttrc tdi thieu ma ban quan ly mong co dupe
dd bidn minh cho viec giur loi nhuan dd tai dau tu hon la tra chung cho nhung ngudi nlm giu: c6 phdn vdi tu cach la c6 turc
4.2.2.3 Chi phi co phieu thudng m&i
Mu6'n phat hanh c6 phieu mdi cdn phai tmh ddn cac chi phi nhu: chi phi in Sin; chi phi quang cao; hoa l*6ng Cac chi phi nay nhidu hay it tuy thu6c vao nhidu yeu t6' va co thd chidm tdi 10% t6ng gia tri phat hanh Vay chi phi cua v6'n c6 phie'u mdi se la bao nhieu?
V6n huy d6ng bang phat hanh c6 phieu mdi phai duoc sir dung sao cho c6 turc cua cac c6 d6ng cu it nha't kh6ng bi giam
Ne'u:
Pn: La gia thuin cua m6t c6 phie'u
Ke: La chi phi cua c6 phi£u mdi
Dt: la c6 turc mong doi trong nam thur t
F: la chi phi phdt hanh
Taco:
d _ V Dt
£ (l + Ks)'
G ii thuan m6i c6 phie'u mdi doanh nghiep thu duoc la
Pn = Po (1-F)
Theo cic gik thidt da n6u tren, ty le tang trudng cua c6 Vic 1&
g = 8%, ta cd thd vidt:
D l Po(l-F) =
K e - g
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Trang 9Tir do chi phi cua c6 phieu moi se la :
Ke = - ^ - + g
Po( 1 -F) Gia sir doanh nghiep A co mot chi phi phat hanh la 10%, chi phi v6n c6 phdn mdi dupe tlnh nhu sau:
1,242
Ke = - + 8% = 14%
2 3 ( 1 - 0 ,1 ) Cac nha diu tu doi hoi mdt ty le Id tire Ks =13,4% dd'i vdi c6
phieu Tuy nhien, vi doanh nghiep phai tra chi phi phat hanh nen din phai dat duoc mdt ty 16 lpi turc cao hon, trong trudng hpp nay la 14% Neii doanh nghi6p dat dupe ty le lpi turc tren 14% d6i vdi v<5n huy ddng dupe tCr c6 phi6'u mdi thi lpi nhuan tr6n mdi c6 ph£n se ting so vdi mure lpi nhuan mong dpi trudc day, c6 turc mong dpi co thi tang va k6t qua la thi gia co phieu se tang N6'u ty 16 lpi turc cua doanh nghi6p dudi 14% thi thi gia c6 phieu se giam
Co thi lam ro hon anh hudng cua chi phi phat hanh qua vi du sau:
Gia su mdt doanh nghi6p co 100.000 dv tai san va khdng co
np, doanh nghi6p co thi kiem dupe 15% lpi tuc (15.000 dv) tren tai san va doanh nghiep phai tra ca lpi nhuan vdi tu each lk c6 tire, ty
le tang trudng c6 tire bang khdng Doanh nghi6p da ban 1000 c6 phi6'u vi vay:
EPS (earning per share) = DPS (dividend per share) = 15 dv
Va Po = 100 dv, lpi tuc tren vd'n chu sa huu la:
Ke = - “ “t - + 0% = 15%
100
Gia sir doanh nghi6p dat dupe 15% lpi turc tCr nhung tai san mdi Doanh nghiep cd thi ban c6 phi£u mdi d l mua tai san niy khdng? N6'u doanh nghi6p da bin 1000 c<5 phi£u mdi cho cdng chung vdi gia lOOdv mdt c6 phi6'u, doanh nghiep phai chju 10% chi phi phat hanh, do do, thu dupe gia tri rong 100 - 0,15100 =
Trang 10£0dv mot co phieu hay tdng so von nhan duoc la 90.000dv T6ng
so loi nhuan mdi se la 28.500dv, trong do, so loi nhuan thu dupe tir tai san cu la 15.000 dv va so lpi nhuan tang them tir tai san mdi la 13.500dv Nhu vay, vdi tdng so co phieu da ban la 2000, lpi nhuan tren mot cd phieu va co turc tren mot cd phieu se giam tu 15dv xud'ng 14,25dv
EPS mdi = DPS mdi = 25 £ ? ° = 14,25dv
2000
Vi EPS va DPS giam, gia cua co phieu cung se giam tir Po = lOOdv xud'ng PI = 14,25 dv/0,15 = 95dv Nguyen nhan la do doanh nghidp chi nhan dupe 90dv cho mdi c6 phdn Dieu dd cho tha'y iing 90dv phai kiem dupe nhieu hon 15% d£ cung ca'p cho cac nha ddu tu vdi ty 16 lpi turc 15% tren lOOdv ho da dat gia
Bay gid gia sir doanh nghidp kiem dupe ty 16 lpi turc Ke tCr 90.000dv tai san mdi
Ke = P o (l-F ) + g
15 + 0 % =16,667%
100(1- 0,1)
Vi vay, se co tinh hinh mdi:
T6ng lpi nhudn mdi = 15.000 dv + 90.000 dv x 0,16667
= 30.000 dv
EPS va DPS mdi = 30.000 dv/2.000 = 15 dv Gia mdi = 15 dv/0,15 =100 dv = Po
Nhu vay, neu ty le lpi turc doi vdi tai san mdi tuong ducmg vdi
Ke nhu dupe tmh nhu tren, thi EPS, DPS va gia cd phie'u se khdng doi Neu ty 16 lpi tuc ddi vdi tai san mdi vupt qua Ke, thi EPS, DPS
va Po se tang Di6u nay xac nhan mot thuc te rang, do phai tra chi phi phat hanh, chi phi cua vd'n c6 phdn mdi cao hon chi phi cua lpi nhuan khong chia
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