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Luận án chỉ ra hiện trạng đánh giá của nhà đầu tư về các vấn đề liên quan đến thu hút vốn FDI vào Tỉnh Thái Nguyên, Kết luận được mối quan hệ giữa đánh giá của nhà đầu tư về các chính sách đơn lẻ và quan điểm chung của nhà đầu tư về mức độ hấp dẫn của Tỉnh Thái Nguyên đối với nhà đầu tư nước ngoài, vai trò của Chính sách ưu đãi đầu tư, Xây dựng lòng tin với nhà đầu tư và phát triển cơ sở hạ tầng đến việc thu hút vốn FDI.
PREDICTION MODEL IN ATTRACTING FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT IN THAI NGUYEN PROVINCE A Doctor Thesis Presented to The Faculty of Graduate School Southern Luzon State University, Lucban, Quezon, Philippines in Collaboration with Thai Nguyen University, Socialist Republic of Vietnam In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirement for the Degree Doctor of Business Administration Trinh Viet Hung (Hung) April 2014 2 CERTIFICATE OF ORIGINALITY This is to certify that the research work / thesis entitled “Analysis of Factors Affecting Foreign Direct Investment and the Construction Of Prediction Model for a Sustainable FDI Attraction to Thai Nguyen Province”, orally defended/ presented under the DBA Program jointly offered by Southern Luzon State University of the Republic of the Philippines and Thai Nguyen University of the Socialist Republic of Vietnam, embodies the result of original and scholarly work carried out by the undersigned. This thesis does not contain words or ideas taken from published sources or written works by other persons which have been accepted as basis for the award of any degree from other higher education institutions, except where proper referencing and acknowledgement were made. _____________________ Researcher/Candidate Date Orally Defended: __________________ Noted: ASSOC. PROF. NGUYEN TUAN ANH Dean International School Thai Nguyen University Date: __________________ 3 ABSTRACT The objectives of the study is to analyse the factors affecting FDI attraction to Thai Nguyen Province. The study was conducted in August 2013 in Thai Nguyen. The data utilized in the research included primary data obtained through a questionnaire survey with 32 FDI investors in Thai Nguyen Province in August 2013 and secondary data from statistical yearbook and reports of the provincial and central government. The results obtained from exploratory factor analysis and multivariate regression analysis showed that factors affecting FDI attraction to Thai Nguyen Province included: Policy, Confidence of Investors, Infrastructure. In which, Policy has the highest fluence on FDI attraction. The study also constructed a prediction model for FDI attraction to Thai Nguyen Province. 4 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 5 Table of content CERTIFICATE OF ORIGINALITY 2 ABSTRACT 3 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 4 LIST OF TABLES 8 LIST OF FIGURES 9 CHAPTER 1 10 INTRODUCTION 10 Background of the study 10 Statements of the problem 15 Research objectives 16 1.1. Hypothesis 16 1.2. Scope and Delimitation of the Study 17 1.3. Significance of the study 18 CHAPTER 2 21 REVIEW OF RELATED LITERATURE AND STUDIES 21 2.1. Review of Related Literatures 21 2.2. Review of related studies 24 2.3. Conceptual Framework 30 CHAPTER 3 32 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY 32 3.1. Locale of the study 32 3.2. Research Design 32 Figure 6. Research Design 32 3.3. Unit of analysis 33 3.4. Data 33 Sources of Data 33 Population, Sample size and Sampling Techniques 33 Instrument of data collection 33 3.5. Description of Respondents 34 3.6. Statistical Treatment 35 CHAPTER 4 37 DATA PRESENTATION, ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION 37 4.1. Analysis of primary data on investors’ expert opinion on factors affecting FDI attraction to Thai Nguyen Province 37 4.2. Analysis of secondary data on factors affecting FDI in Thai Nguyen Province 51 6 CHAPTER 5 59 Summary of Findings, Conclusions and Recommendations 59 5.1. Summary of Findings 59 5.2. Conclusion 69 5.3. Recommendations 71 1. Thai Nguyen Province should focus on offering financial incentives for FDI investors. For real estate businesses, Thai Nguyen Province should focus on interest rate preferentials; for companies in manufacturing and processing industries, tax and land incentives for factory construction may take better effects. 71 2. Thai Nguyen Province should develop its electric and water supply to ensure the production and manufacturing of FDI investors and have contingency plans for emergency cases. 71 3. Thai Nguyen Province should improve the confidence of investors by applying transparent and equal policies for all investors. Information about investment and investment policies should be published in the portal of Thai Nguyen Province. The province should also increase its PCI to improve the confidence of foreign investors. 71 4. Thai Nguyen Province should support foreign investors in training human resource by cooperating with foreign companies in recruitment process and training (such as language and skills in working in an international environment). Workers who are introduced to foreign companies should be the ones who are skillful and has strong sense of discipline. 71 5. Thai Nguyen Province should develop its supporting industries to supply materials and reduce the costs for major industries. 72 6. The transport system should be improved. 72 7. Thai Nguyen Province should maintain its stable economic growth, which is attractive to the investors. 72 8. Based on the changes of variables in the model (3), Thai Nguyen Province can make decisions on how to attract FDI appropriately. 72 9. The following further research can be conducted to develop the result of this study: 72 Direction 1: quantify the policy factors into an equivalent amount of money that the investors may receive from the application of specific policies so that the model can approach the reality. 72 Direction 2: further research can be conducted to explore specific needs of the investors, focusing on the factors which have been found in this study as well as the the fulfilment ability of Thai Nguyen Province in those factors. Solutions should be proposed for both sides. 72 Direction 3: the study has proposed solutions to attract FDI, but has not suggested any solution to retain the investors and expand their business in Thai Nguyen. Therefore further study can be conducted with this objective. 72 REFERENCES 73 7 Hair, J.F. et. al. 2009. Multivariate Data Analysis (7th Edition). Prentice Hall 74 Stevens, J.P. 2002. Applied Multivariate Statistics for the Social Sciences, Fifth Edition. Taylor and Francis group. 74 APPENDIX 76 Appendix A 77 QUESTIONNAIRE SURVEY FORM FOR INVESTORS/ 77 BẢNG CÂU HỎI ĐIỀU TRA 77 Appendix B 81 RESULT OF REGRESSION ANALYSIS ON SAS 81 2 GDP 2 0.1739 0.6926 14.5651 5.66 0.0387 86 CURRICULUM VITAE 87 Major Field: Economics 87 Degree obtained: Masters’ Degree 87 Year of Graduation: 2010 87 WORK EXPERIENCES 88 8 LIST OF TABLES Table Page Table 1. Correlation Analysis between FDI and socio-economic index (2000-2012) Table 2. Five point Likert’s Scale Table 3. Description of Respondents’ Profile Table 4. Factors before conducting EFA Table 5. Correlation among variables (survey questions) Table 6. Rotated component matrix Table 7. Component Score Coefficient Matrix Table 8. Reliability of the Exploratory Factors Table 9. Average Mean Distribution of Investors’ Responses to Factors affecting FDI attractiveness of Thai Nguyen Province Table 11. Simple correlation between FDI attractiveness and its predictor factors Table 12. Result of simple linear regression analysis on FDI attractiveness as perceived by investors and its predictor variables Table 13. Summary of Backward Elimination Table 14. Descriptive statistics of FDI and its predictor variables from 2000 to 2013 Table 15. Simple Correlation Analysis between FDI and its predictor variables Table 16. Result of simple linear regression analysis on FDI in Thai Nguyen Province and its predictor variables Table 17. Summary of Forward Selection 9 LIST OF FIGURES Figure Page Figure 1. Gross Domestic Products of Thai Nguyen Province (2000- 2013) Figure 2. GDP by sectors in Thai Nguyen Province (2000 - 2013) Figure 3. Registered FDI in Thai Nguyen Province (2000 - 2013) Figure 4. Comparison of registered FDI among provinces (2010- 2013) Figure 5. Conceptual Framework Figure 6. Research Design Figure 7. Model testing (primary model) Figure 8. Model testing (secondary model) 10 CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION In recent years, a big change in trend of FDI inflows with a remarkable growth in FDI to developing countries has been witnessed. Especially in 2012, developing countries have surpassed their developed counterparts in attracting FDI with 9 developing countries ranked in top 20 FDI attractive countries (UNCTAD, 2013). As reported by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD, 2012), developing countries in Asia are the leadings to attract FDI during the period from 2008 to 2012. Despite the decrease of 7% in FDI inflows in the whole region in 2012, some countries including Vietnam were bright spots for labor- intensive FDI. Vietnam was also considered one of most FDI attractive among low- income host countries (together with Combodia, Myanmar and Philippines). UNCTAD (2012) forecasted that Vietnam would be one of the potential attractive hosts for the period 2013-2015. Background of the study Thai Nguyen Province is the central province of the Northern mountainous and midland region of Vietnam in terms of politics and economy. It is also considered the socio-economic gateway connecting the mountainous and the Red River Delta. Thai Nguyen Province has border with Bac Can province in the North, Vinh Phuc, Tuyen Quang in the West, Lang Son and Bac Giang in the East and Hanoi capital in the South. Thai Nguyen also has a very convenient location for transportation which is 50 kilometers far from Noi Bai International airport, 200 kilometers far from China and 200 kilometers from Hai Phong port. Thai Nguyen is also a transporting intersection [...]... USD However, in the first six months of 2013, registered FDI soared to 2.14 billion USD which is an extraordinary increase in FDI inflows to the province 13 Registered FDI (Million USD) 2500 2000 1500 Thái Nguyên Bắc Giang Phú Thọ Quảng Ninh Bắc Ninh Vĩnh Phúc 1000 500 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Year Figure 4 Comparison of registered FDI among provinces (2010-2013) Figure 4 compares registered FDI between... FDI in developing countries also supported the “tariff hopping” hypothesis, in which, tax on international trade and transactions caused uncompetitiveness in exporting to a potential host country, FDI thus would be better way of market penetration The greatest point in the study of Harinder and Kwang (1995) was finding that an export orientation in policy is the strongest variable to explain the FDI . value (Thousand USD) UNE : Unemployment rate (%) Registered FDI ( Million USD ) Year Thái Nguyên Bắc Giang Phú Thọ Quảng Ninh Bắc Ninh Vĩnh Phúc 15 FDI had a significant positive