( sd 04 (81)-2010 ) TAI CHiNH QUdCT^ ANH HU'DNG CUA QUAN HE THUONG MAI VIET - MY DEN NEN KINH TE VIET NAM HIEN NAY • • • TS. Ha Guv Tmh J Yong xu the todn cdu hda kinh te, hpi nhap vd tdc ddng manh me cua cuoc cdch mang khoa hpc- cdng nghe hien nay, quan he thffdng mgi giffa cdc qudc gia dd trd thdnh mdt bp phan quan trpng cua quan he kinh te qudc te. Qud trinh ddi mdi kinh te nham xdy diing, phdt trien nen kinh te thi trffdng dinh hffdng xd hpi chu nghia gdn vdi md cffa hdi nhap vdo nen kinh te khu vffc, the gidi cua nffdc ta ddi hdi phdi md rong, phdt trien cdc quan he thffdng mgi song phffdng, da phffdng md quan he thffdng mgi Viet- My giff mdt vai trd ddc Met quan trpng, la mdt khdu dot phd de md rdng quan he thffdng mgi vdi cdc nudc tren the gidi. Dieu ndy cdng dffpc khdng dinh qua cuoc khung hodng kinh te todn cdu 2007-2009 viia qua, bdi My vdn dang Id thi trffdng xudt nhap khdu Idn nhdt cua nffdc ta hien nay. Lffi ich cua quan he thffdng mgi Viet - My Quan he thffdng mai Viet - My Id mdt bd phan ciia quan he thffdng mai qud'c te, nd mang ban chat va ham chffa day dii ndi dung ciia mdi quan he thffdng mai qud'c te', song nd cung phan dnh nhffng mdi quan he ddc thu giffa hai qud'c gia. Tff nhffng nam 90, quan hp Vipt - My da dan dan tffng bffdc dffdc hinh thanh vdi nhffng bffdc di cham chap, than trpng xua't phdt tff nhffng quan he giffa hai qud'c gia trong qud khff Cling nhff tff nhu cau ldi ich ciia hai qud'c gia can dat dffdc trong hien tai vd tffdng lai. Bdi, chinh sdh ddi mdi vd md cffa ciia nen kinh te Viet nam da md ra cd hdi mang lai ldi ich khdng chi cho Viet nam md cho ca cdc qud'c gia trong khu vffc, the' gidi lam cho quan he ldi ich giffa My vd Viet nam tffng budc xich lai gan nhau. My ky vpng rat Idn vao Viet Nam - mot thdnh vien quan trpng ciia Asean day nang dpng va trien vpng phdt trien vdi mdt thj trffdng rdng Idn 84 trieu dan, tai nguyen thien nhien da dang, gid thue nhan cdng re, vi tri dia ly quan trpng Id cau nd'i giao Iffu kinh te'giffa cac nffdc trong khu vffc. Sff phdt trien nang ddng ciia khu vffc Chau a - Thai Binh Dffdng, trong dd sff hdnh trffdng ciia cdc cdng ty Nhat ciing vdi sff phat trien rat nhanh ciia nen kinh te' Trung qud'c da Idm My lo ngai buoc phai Hm cdch Cling cd' vai trd ciia minh d khu vffc. Chinh sach kinh te', thffdng mai, ngoai giao ciia My dffdc xay dffng dffa tren nguyen tdc thffc dung, ludn ddt ldi ich ciia nffdc My, trffdc he't Id ldi ich ciia cdc cdng ty My len hdng dau nen khdng cd ly do gi de My dffng ngoai nhin cdc cdng ty Nhat ban, EU, Trung qudc chie'm Hnh, kliai thdc cdc ngudn ldi tff thj trffdng Viet Nam trong khi sir phdt trien ciia Viet nam khdng he de dpa, dung cham den ldi Ich ciia nffdc My. Chinh vi vay, thie't lap quan he ngoai giao, phdt trien quan he thffdng mai Viet - My khdng chi ciing cd dja vi, Idm tdng vai trd ciia My d khu vffc Chau a Thdi Binh Dffdng md cdn mang lai nhffng ngudn ldi chinh ddng cho cdc cdng ty My. Dd'i vdi Viet Nam - mdt nffdc dang phdt trien lai cd khoang each chenh lech kha xa ve trinh dp phdt trien ,so vdi cdc nffdc trong khu vffc, the gidi, diic biet la sir chenh lech qua Idn giffa mdt qud'c gia rat lac hau so vdi mot sieu cffdng kinh te' hang dau the gidi Id My song Viet nam cung mong mud'n tiep can thj trffdng rdng Idn, Hep nhan ngudn vd'n dau tff, tie'n bp khoa hpc cdng nghp tien tien, kinh nghiem quan ly hien dai ciia My. Chiing ta nhan tha'y rdng, thiet lap quan he thffdng mai Viet - My chinh la bien phdp de Viet nam cd the phat trien nhanh theo con dffdng "rut ngdn" hdi nhap vdo nen kinh te' the' gidi, xdc lap ddng thdi ciing cd' vj the' ciia Viet nam. Phdt trien quan he thffdng mai Vipt - My cdn Id bffdc dot phd. Id cau ndi de md rdng, phdt trien quan hp kinh te', thffdng mai giffa Vipt nam vdi cac nffdc "Than My" trong dd cd cac cffdng qudc tff ban Idn tff dd md rdng khdng Tap chf nghien cufu Tdi chfnh ke todn <b3 TAI CHiNH QU6C TE ( Sd 04 (81)-2010 ) gian " bien gidi mem" cua nen kinh te^ nham mang lai ldi ich cho Viet nam. Quan he thffdng mgi Viet - My tff khi Viet nam trd thdnh vien WTO. Tff khi Viet nam trd thdnh thanh vien ciia WTO, quan he thu'dng mai Viet - My da bffdc sang mdt giai doan phdt trien ndng ddng. Dd la mdc son phdp ly de thdo gd cdc mdi quan he Viet - My vd'n qua nhieu chdng gai trong qud khff chuyen sang mot quan he mdi td't dep theo chua'n mffc cua qud'c te nhdm mang lai ldi Ich tot dep ve kinh te - chinh trj - van hda - xa hpi cho ca hai qudc gia, khu vffc va the^ gidi. Quan he thffdng mai Viet - My da va dang md ra bffc tranh mdi ve quan he song phffdng giffa hai nffdc. Cu the, ndm 2007, tdng gid tri giao dich thffdng mai song phffdng Viet - My dat tren 12 ty USD, tang 7 lan so vdi thdi ky ke tff khi Hipp dinh thffdng mai song phffdng cd hieu lffc (ngdy 10.12.2001). Dau tff trffc tie'p ciia My vdo Viet nam ndm 2007 dat hdn 2,6 ty USD, neu Hnh ca dau tff qua nffdc thff ba thi tdng sd vd'n dau tff dat 5,2 ty USD. Nam 2008 so vdn dau tff va sd' dff dn dau tff ciia My vdo Viet nam tdng 42%. Khd'i Iffdng thffdng mai hdng hda song phffdng Viet - My gia tdng, cu the: khd'i Iffdng hang hda xua't kha'u cua Viet nam vdo My ndm 2007 dat 10,54 ty USD, ndm 2008 dat 12 ty USD, nam 2009 khoang tren 13 ty USD va trd thanh mot trong 30 nffdc xua't kha'u hdng dau vdo My. Xua't khau ciia My vdo Viet nam ndm 2007 dat 1,82 ty USD, nam 2008 dat tren 2 ty USD, nam 2009 khoang 2,5 ty USD. Tff ndm 2008 va 2009 My da trd thdnh nhd dau tff cd sd' vd'n ddng ky Idn nha't d Viet nam. Hien tai, nhieu cdng ty, tap dodn kinh te Idn ciia My da cd mat tai Viet nam, nhff: Starwood Hotel & Resorts, CiHgroup vd American Group, New York & Company, Alfonso DeMatteis, Dickerson Kingh Group, AIA Cac cdng ty My dang khang djnh chd dffng vffng chdc tai thj trffdng Viet nam va Id bang chffng thuye't phuc thu hut cdc ddng vd'n dau tff chay vdo Viet nam trong hien tai, tffdng lai. Cuoc khung hoang kinh te' toan cau 2007- 2009 vffa qua da tdc ddng ddng ke nen kinh te My song cung minh chffng sffc manh vd sff anh hffdng Idn ciia My den nen kinh te' toan cau trong do cd Viet nam. Hien nay. My van dffdc coi Id thj trffdng xua't nhap Idn nha't va day trien vpng cua Viet nam Tdc dpng ciia quan he thffdng mgi Viet - My den nen kinh te Viet Nam. Sau gan ba gia nhap WTO, nen kinh te' Viet nam mac du van chju tdc dpng bat ldi ciia nen kinh te the' gidi nhff: gid dau md tang cao, ddng USD mat gid so vdi ddng Euo, bang Anh, nhan dan te , nen kinh te My bffdc vao thdi ky suy thodi (2007-2009), nen kinh te' Trung qud'c tie'p tuc tang trffdng cao (11%) da da'y gid cac nguyen lieu cd ban ciia ca the gidi trong dd cd Viet nam tdng cao, tdc ddng ciia thien nhien da gay nhieu thiet hai cho nen kinh te Viet nam Vdi ta't ca nhffng ba't ldi dd song nen kinh te' Viet nam van dat td'c dp tang trffdng cao hdn so vdi td'c do tdng trffdng ciia 12 ndm trffdc. Nam 2008, GDP Hnh theo gid qud'c te (PPP) dat tren 80 ty USD); GDP/ ngffdi dat gan 1000 USD) vd nam 2009 tang trffdng kinh te nffdc ta dat khoang 5.3%, GDP/ ngffdi tren 1000 USD. Cung vdi td'c dp tdng trffdng kinh te' cao do md rdng quan he thffdng mai, cd ca'u nen kinh te Viet nam dang chuyen djch theo hffdng Hch cffc phu hdp vdi muc Heu ciia qua trinh CNH. HDH vd hdi nhap vdo nen kinh te' the gidi. Cu the: Cd ca'u kinh te' nganh: Ty trpng gid trj nganh ndng - lam - thiiy san tie'p tuc giam theo quy luat cua CNH, HDH, chi cdn 18% GDP. Nganh cdng nghiep - xay dffng tang td'c dp cao, dat hai chff sd va dat tren 42% GDP, khu vffc djch vu c6 td'c dp tdng trffdng cao nha't, cao hdn td'c dp tang trffdng chung ciia nen kinh te. Cd ca'u thdnh phan kinh te': Nhd tff duy, chinh sdch kinh te' ciia Dang va Nhd nffdc cd sff ddi mdi ma thanh phan kinh te ngoai nha nffdc, ddc biet kinh te tff nhan cd tdc dp tdng trffdng cao hdn td'c dp chung cua nen kinh te. dat tdc dp tren 17%. Khu vffc kinh te' ngodi nha nffdc vd khu vffc kinh te cd vdn dau tff nffdc ngodi cd tdc dp tang trffdng cao hdn khu vffc kinh te nha nffdc, chie'm ty trpng cao trong GDP vd trd thanh ddng lffc tdng trffdng ciia ca nen kinh te'. Sff chuyen djch cda cd ca'u 64^ Tap chf nghien cufu Tdi chfnh i<e todn ( sd 04 (81)-2010 ) TAI CHiNH QU6CT^ kinh te ngdnh, cd ca'u thdnh phan kinh te phu hdp vdi quy luat CNH, HDH tao nen td'c dp tdng trffdng cao cua todn nen kinh te'la do tdc dpng thuan ldi ciia ca yeu td dau vdo, dau ra ciia nen kinh te, do khdi thdng quan he thffdng mai vdi cac nffdc tren cd sd cdc djnh che' ciia WTO. Ye'u to' dau vdo ciia nen kinh te: Tdc dp tang vd'n dau tff cao hdn td'c dp tang trffdng chung cua nen kinh te (vdn dau tff tang 40,6%) va thuoc nffdc cd td'c dp tang vd'n dau tff cao so vdi cdc nffdc tren the gidi, chi sau Trung qud'c. Trong dd, ty trpng vd'n dau tff ciia khu vffc kinh te nha nffdc Hep tuc giam, ty trpng vdn dau tff cua khu vffc kinh te ngodi nhd nffdc ngdy cdng gia tang (dat tren 38% tdng vd'n dau tff todn xd hdi). Hieu qua dau tff cua khu vffc kinh te ngodi nhd nffdc cao ga'p ddi khu vffc kinh te nhd nffdc nen ddng gdp tich cffc vdo tang trffdng GDP. Ngudn vdn dau tff trffc Hep nffdc ngoai gia tang ky luc ca ve vd'n dau tff trffc tie'p, vd'n dau tff gian tiep vd vd'n hd trd phdt trien chinh thffc ODA, cu the: Ngudn vd'n dau tff trffc tiep gia tdng ca ve tdng sd vd'n, vdn dang ky mdi, vdn bd sung (dat 20,3 ty USD), quy mo binh quan mot dff dn tang (14 tripu USD/ dir dn); Ngudn vd'n dau tff nffdc ngoai gian Hep ndm 2007 dat 5,6 ty USD, ndm 2008 dat 5,8 ty USD, ndm 2009 khoang tren ndm 2008 Id 5,6 ty USD, nam 2009 khoang 6.3 ty USD. Ye'u td' dau ra ciia nen kinh te: Ve san Iffdng hang hda Heu thu trong nffdc: tdng mffc bdn le hang hda vd djch vu Heu diing tang gan 23%, neu loai trff ye'u to' tang gia, binh quan nam 2007 san Iffdng hang hda tieu thu va djch vu tdng 8,3%, cao gap 1,6 lan td'c dp gia tang GDP. Dung Iffdng thj trffdng trong nffdc dat gan 45 ty USD. Ve gid tri hang hda va dich VII xuat - nhap khau: Kim ngach xua't khii'u nam 2007 dat 48,4 ty USD, tang 8,2 ty USD: nam 2008 tren 52 ty USD. Trong dd kim ngach xua't kha'u cua khu Vffc cd vd'n dau tff nffdc ngodi chie'm 56,9% kim ngach xua't khau ciia ca nffdc, dat 27,3 ly USD, kim ngach xua't kha'u ciia cac doanh nghiep 100% vd'n trong nffdc tang 23,1%. Co ca'u mat hang xua't kha'u cung cd bien ddi, trong •dd kim ngach xua't kha'u nhdm hang ndng - lam - thiiy san tang 1,7 ty USD; nhdm hang nhien lieu, khoang san tang 0,2 ty USD; nhdm hang cdng nghiep va. thii cdng my nghe tang3,7 ty USD; eac nhdm hdng kliac tang 2,6 ty "USD. Cac mat hdng xua't kha'u chff lffc cua Viet nam ciing tdng cao Tuy nhien nhap sieu ciia ndm 2007 van tdng, khoang tren 10 ty USD, ty le nhap sieu/ xua't kha'u la 22%,' nam 2008 nhap sieu 13 ty USD. Day la mffc nhiip sieu cao, song bdi todn nhap sieu ciia Viet nam an chffa nhieu nghjch ly can dffdc ly giai va thao gd, cu the: chiing ta xua't sieu sang nhieu nffdc cd nen kinh te phdt trien vd cd trinh do cdng nghe tien Hen nhff My, Italia, Dffc, Anh, Nhat ban ( xua't kha'u vdo My tang21%, vao EU tang 19%, vdo Nhat ban tang 1,8% so vdi nam 2007 ) trong khi chung ta lai nhap sieu Idn tff cdc nffdc d gan nhff Trung qud'c. Singapo, Han qud'c. Thai lan, An dp, rieng nhap sieu tff Trung qud'c nanr2007 la 4,4 ty USD (chie'm hdn 86% tdng mffc nhap sieu ca nffdc; ndm 2008 tdng len 7.5 ty USD (chie'm 60% tdng mffc nhap sieu ciia ca nffdc) ma nhap hang tieu dung va cdc thiet bj khdng phai Id tien tien la chii ye'u. Dieu ndy gay anh hffdng de'n sff tang trffdng, phdt trien ciia nen kinh te' Viet nam, tao ra sff bat ldi trong canh tranh ciia cac doanh nghiep vd hang hda Viet nam. Ddc biet tff 1.1.2010, khu vir mau dich Trung qud'c -Asean md rdng, dd bd thue xua't nhap kha'u cho hau he't cdc hang hda giao Iffu, dieu nay se tdc dpng khdng nhd de'n sffc canh tranh doanh nghiep va hang hda Viet nam. Vay, sau ba ndm gia nhap vao To chffc thffdng mai the gidi WTO, nen kinh te' Vipt nam da cd sff khdi sdc vdi td'c dp tang trffdng khd cao, cdca'u nen kinh te cd sff chuyen djch phii hdp vdi quy luat cua qud trinh CNH, HDH, hffdng manh vdo thffc hien phan cdng lao dpng qudc te nhdm phdt huy ldi the' ciia da't nffdc, doanh nghiep ciing nhff hdng hod Viet nam. Md rdng, phdt trien quan he thffdng mai Vipt - My dang trd thanh hffdng ffu tien hdng dau ciia Viet nam, thj trffdng My dang trd thanh ha'p dan dd'i vdi cdc doanh nghiep Viet nam hien nay va trong nhffng nam tdi/. Tap chf nghien cufu Tdi chfnh ke'todn <(65, . cdng nghe hien nay, quan he thffdng mgi giffa cdc qudc gia dd trd thdnh mdt bp phan quan trpng cua quan he kinh te qudc te. Qud trinh ddi mdi kinh te nham xdy diing, phdt trien nen kinh te thi. nen kinh te^ nham mang lai ldi ich cho Viet nam. Quan he thffdng mgi Viet - My tff khi Viet nam trd thdnh vien WTO. Tff khi Viet nam trd thdnh thanh vien ciia WTO, quan . day trien vpng cua Viet nam Tdc dpng ciia quan he thffdng mgi Viet - My den nen kinh te Viet Nam. Sau gan ba gia nhap WTO, nen kinh te' Viet nam mac du van chju tdc