Thẩm định tài chính dự án đầu tư tại ngân hàng TMCP xuất nhập khẩu Việt Nam chi nhánh Hòa Bình PGD. Đồng Khánh

IH CM TP H CHÍ MINH C BI T KHĨA LU N T T NGHI P CHUYÊN NGÀNH: TÀI CHÍNH NGÂN HÀNG TH NH TÀI CHÍNH DA T M R NG T I NGÂN HÀNG TMCP XU T NH P KH U VI T NAM CN HỊA BÌNH PGD NG KHÁNH SVTH : Nguy n Trang Phúc Duyên MSSV : 0954032103 L p : TN09DB3 Tài ngân hàng GVHD : ThS Nguy TP H Chí Minh 2013 Th nh Tài Chính D uT T ng Khánh L Q trình th c hi n Khóa lu n t t nghi p m t trình quan tr ng k t n i nh ng ki n th c h c gi ng nh ng kinh nghi m làm vi c th c ti n K t qu i s nh n th c ti n công vi c bi t cách áp d ng nh ng lý thuy t vào th c t Quá trình th c t p khơng th di n t pn u khơng có s c ng, q th th c t p c h t, xin g i l n i h c M Thành ph H c bi t ng m t o b ích, giúp sinh viên ti c không ch ki n th c chuyên ngành mà phát tri n nh ng k c th c t c bi t, g i l n - Ti n Minh Ki u c Ch c bi t ng m t k ho ch th c t p chi ti ng th i, g i l n Th Nguy , gi ng d ng d n sinh viên t n tình t u ki n t t nh c th c t p t tài chính, h c nhi u h c th c t hoàn thành Báo cáo th c t p Xu t Nh p Kh u Vi t Nam (Eximbank) q anh/ch nhân viên phịng tín d v ng th GVHD: ThS Nguy ti p nh n th c t p: Ngân hàng TMCP CN Hịa Bình ng Khánh, su t trình th c t p tài i Th nh Tài Chính D uT T ng Khánh NH N XÉT C TH C T P ······························································································································ ······························································································································ ······························································································································ ······························································································································ ······························································································································ ······························································································································ 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······························································································································ ······························································································································ ······························································································································ ······························································································································ ······························································································································ GVHD: ThS Nguy ii Th nh Tài Chính D uT T ng Khánh NH N XÉT C A GI NG VIÊN NG D N ······························································································································· ······························································································································· ······························································································································· ······························································································································· ······························································································································· ······························································································································· ······························································································································· ······························································································································· ······························································································································· 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······························································································································· ······························································································································· GVHD: ThS Nguy iii Th nh Tài Chính D uT T DANH M C CH : Cán b th ng Khánh VI T T T nh CBTD : Cán b tín d ng CIC : Trung tâm thơng tin tín d ng (Credit Information Center) CN : Chi nhánh :D DN : Doanh nghi p DO : D u diesel DVKH : D ch v khách hàng IRR : T su t sinh l i n i b KHCN : Khách hàng cá nhân KHDN : Khách hàng doanh nghi p LN : L i nhu n NHNN c NHTM i NPV : Hi n giá thu nh p ròng PGD : Phịng giao d ch PP : Th i gian hồn v n d án ROE : T s l i nhu n ròng/v n ch s h u SXKH : S n xu t kinh doanh Thu TNDN : Thu thu nh p doanh nghi p TNHH : Trách nhi m h u h n : Tài s n c : Tài s nh mb o V n CSH : V n ch s h u WACC : Chi phí s d ng v n bình quân GVHD: ThS Nguy iv Th nh Tài Chính D uT T ng Khánh M CL C I THI U 1.1 T NG QUAN 1.2 LÝ DO CH TÀI 1.3 M C TIÊU NGHIÊN C U .2 1.4 PH U .2 1.5 PH M VI NGHIÊN C U 1.6 K T C U KHÓA LU N : T NG QUAN V LÝ THUY T 2.1 LÝ LU N CHUNG .4 2.1.1 T ng quan v tín d ng ngân hàng a Khái ni m b Phân lo i c Vai trị c a tín d d Quy trình tín d ng 2.1.2 Th i v i n n kinh t r ng t i NHTM .6 2.2 CÁC NGHIÊN C U LIÊN QUAN 21 2.2.1 Lu c s chuyên ngành qu n tr kinh doanh, tác gi Nguy n Thanh i Ngân hàng TMCP Á Châu CN Hà N .21 2.2.2 Lu c s chuyên ngành tài ngân hàng, tác gi Ph m Thanh Tu nh tài d án cho vay trung dài h n t i Ngân hàng Nông nghi p phát tri n nông thôn Hà N .22 NG KHÁNH 23 3.1 T NG QUAN V EXIMBANK CN HỊA BÌNH NG KHÁNH .23 3.1.1 L ch s hình thành phát tri n c a Ngân hàng TMCP Xu t Nh p Kh u Vi t Nam (vi t t t Eximbank) 23 3.1.2 T ng quan v Eximbank Hòa Bình 23 3.2 GI I THI U V GVHD: ThS Nguy NG KHÁNH 24 v Th nh Tài Chính D uT T 3.2.1 L ch s hình thành phát tri n c 3.2.2 u t ch c ho 3.2.3 Tình hình ho ng c ng Khánh .24 ng Khánh 24 ng kinh doanh c 3.3 QUY TRÌNH TH TÍCH R I RO TÍN D NG T ng Khánh ng Khánh .26 R NG VÀ PHÂN NG KHÁNH 29 3.4 VÍ D MINH H A V HO NG TH M R NG T NG KHÁNH 30 3.4.1 Gi i thi u khái quát v 30 3.4.2 Th r ng 31 XU T 42 4.1 NH N XÉT .42 4.1.1 m 42 4.1.2 H n ch 43 4.2 XU T 47 4.2.1 V cách th nh dòng ti n c 4.2.2 V cách th nh ch 4.2.3 V xem xét r i ro c 47 .51 51 K T LU N 52 TÀI LI U THAM KH O PH L C GVHD: ThS Nguy vi Th nh Tài Chính D uT T ng Khánh DANH M C B NG TÊN B NG TRANG B ng v n c 26 B ng 3.2 : Tình hình cho vay c B ng 3.3: K t qu ho GVHD: ThS Nguy ng kinh doanh c 27 29 vii Th nh Tài Chính D uT T ng Khánh DANH M C BI TÊN BI Bi TRANG ng v n c 26 Bi tín d ng c 28 Bi 3.3: Tình hình n x u - n h n c 28 Bi 3.4: L i nhu n c 29 GVHD: ThS Nguy viii Th nh Tài Chính D uT T ng Khánh DANH M C HÌNH TÊN HÌNH TRANG m t ch c c GVHD: ThS Nguy i ho ng c a Eximbank Hịa Bình 23 ng Khánh 24 ix Th nh Tài Chính D uT T ng Khánh Ngu n cung d u ph thu c r t l n vào quy nh c a c a t ch c OPEC, nên vi u hành c a t ch t quan tr ng vi c bình n giá th ng S li u v giá d cl yt n tháng 3/2013 t i website :http://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/publications/338.htm http://www.wtrg.com/prices.htm b Vietnam Inflation L m phát c a Vi t Nam th i k nh kinh niên c a n n kinh t ng c a l m phát lên giá c c không tránh kh i L m phát làm xói mịn giá tr toán c ng ti n hay gi m s c mua hàng hóa c a ti ng, gây nh ng dây chuy i v i n n kinh t Ngay giá c n ch s c mua c a ti ng lên giá b i c nh l y, có th kh nh r ng l m phát m t ph n nguyên nhân d u Vi m khác so v i c có m c l m phát nh S li u v l m phát c a Vi c l y t tháng n tháng 3/2013 t i website: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/vietnam/inflation-cpi c Currency Vi c giao d ch nh p kh u d c tính b ng tr c ti u n c S li u v t giá c l y t n tháng 3/2013 t i website: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/vietnam/currency d Environment Bi y mơ hình bi n gi , v ng ng không nh nh Xét l i l ch s bi ng giá d u th gi i t m t tình hình chung b t c có chi ho ng kinh t u gây nên cú s c l n v giá d u, c th : n nay, ta th y ln có t tr hay kh ng u v n gi ng USD/thùng T u nh y lên m c 12 USD/thùng (g p l n so v t phát t cu c chi ng vào ngày 5/10/1973 nh m v c Syria Ai C p Cu c chi c M u thu n Nh l ng thái c a M , m t s c R p t c kh t l nh c m v n v d u m v i qu c gia Israel S n ng lúc b c t gi m tri u thùng/ngày, m t s n ng lên tri u thùng/ngày S hao h t tri u thùng/ngày kéo dài t i tháng GVHD: ThS Nguy Ph l c trang 21 Th nh Tài Chính D uT T ng Khánh 3/1974, chi m kho ng 7% s ng d u th gi i S hao h y giá d u th gi ng m i T um l xu t phát t s ki n b t nt i Iran x y cu c cách m ng H i giáo (t tháng 11/1978 t i tháng 6/1979) n s ng m n 2,5 tri u thùng/ngày Vào tháng 9/1980, Irap t n công Iran Trong th i k s n t ng t gi m xu ng n cho giá d u m p l n, lên m G t cu n kinh t th gi i phát tri n q nóng, s ng ngành cơng nghi p M , Trung Qu c Tây Âu n nhu c ud t n tr m t nguyên nhân y giá d u m leo thang S kh ng ho ng m tl nn c châm ngòi t i M giá d u m n tháng 7/2008 t giá d u t m tm ck l c 147 USD/thùng vào gi a tháng 7/2008 c cu n kinh t th gi i b kh ng ho ng nghiêm tr ng S n xu , th t nghi u s n xu t hàng hóa gi , y giá d u t t d n m c 34 USD/thùng Gi nh t n kinh t Vi t Nam b kh ng ho ng ch u ng c a cu c kh ng ho ng tài Th gi i T 2010 tr n kinh t c trì tình tr ng nh Nh c tham kh o t i website: http://luanvan.co/luan-van/detai-bien-dong-gia-dau-lua-va-anh-huong-den-nen-kinh-te-viet-nam-16751/ e Vietnam Oil Import 1.000 USD M c dù tr ng khai thác d u ti i Vi t Nam l ch y u d khó mà dùng làm nhiên li u cho s n xu t, nên ph n l n Vi t Nam v n ph i nh p kh u lo i t c v ph c v cho nhu c u tiêu th s n xu c Do h n ch v ngu n s li u ngu n cung c u v d u t i Vi t Nam nên nghiên c u nhân t Vietnam Oil Import u d u t i Vi t so v i nh ng nhân t khác, m t nh p kh u lo i vào Vi t Nam nhân t l i tr thành ngu n cung d u xét n i t i n n kinh t y mơ hình d li u c a nhân t u mang d u tr làm rõ m t th hi n nhu c u v d u t i Vi t Nam S li u v l m phát t i Vi c l y t tháng 1/2008 n tháng 3/2013 t i website: http://www.economywatch.com/economic-statistics/Vietnam/Value_Oil_Imports/ http://www.gso.gov.vn/default.aspx?tabid= 629&ItemID= 13697 GVHD: ThS Nguy Ph l c trang 22 Th nh Tài Chính D uT T ng Khánh B ng 1: D li u ngu n MONTH OPEC Basket average price (USD) Vietnam Iflation Price DO 0,05s in VN Vietnam Oil Import (1.000 USD) Currency Environment Jan-08 88.5 0.1275 10400 559,046.64 15726.57 Feb-08 90.64 0.142 12200 616,890.65 15662.26 Mar-08 99.03 0.1577 14000 584,884.61 15651.65 Apr-08 105.16 0.1948 14000 668,549.08 15875.85 May-08 119.39 0.215 14000 2,301,506.00 15924.48 Jun-08 128.33 0.2524 14000 1,652,780.48 16211.65 Jul-08 131.22 0.2673 14000 1,486,646.55 16527.14 Aug-08 112.41 0.2698 14725 1,104,104.89 16526.85 Sep-08 96.85 0.2824 15450 523,494.79 16338.4 Oct-08 69.16 0.2786 14700 565,191.81 16436.57 Nov-08 49.76 0.2672 13283.33 376,783.47 16657.15 Dec-08 38.6 0.2421 11983.33 526,231.72 16678.05 Jan-09 41.52 0.1987 11000 353,015.80 17188.38 Feb-09 41.41 0.1743 10750 425,289.16 16886.65 Mar-09 45.78 0.1468 10250 423,658.22 16883.19 Apr-09 50.2 0.1115 10000 590,774.86 17175.75 May-09 56.98 0.0913 10250 537,208.94 17192.14 Jun-09 68.36 0.055 11000 559,807.52 17105.63 Jul-09 64.59 0.039 12100 625,303.47 17400 Aug-09 71.35 0.033 12600 490,125.52 17339.42 Sep-09 67.17 0.0192 13100 676,272.95 17673.96 Oct-09 72.67 0.0235 13050 616,818.10 17800 Nov-09 76.29 0.0293 13800 417,120.35 17855.31 Dec-09 74.01 0.0433 14450 540,092.76 18405 Jan-10 76.01 0.0652 14750 445,638.24 18257.58 Feb-10 72.99 0.0762 14900 550,863.21 18505.89 Mar-10 77.21 0.0846 14600 580,236.10 18977.14 Apr-10 82.33 0.0946 14600 606,611.21 18878.5 May-10 74.48 0.0923 14600 626,241.21 18915.46 Jun-10 72.95 0.0905 14600 462,777.90 18910.6 Jul-10 72.51 0.0869 14600 560,566.82 19100 Aug-10 74.15 0.0819 14750 581,323.79 19362.44 Sep-10 74.63 0.0818 14750 355,860.19 19465.5 Oct-10 79.86 0.0892 14750 340,888.74 19387.52 Nov-10 82.83 0.0966 14750 336,484.45 19450 GVHD: ThS Nguy Ph l c trang 23 Th nh Tài Chính D uT T ng Khánh Dec-10 88.56 0.1109 14750 630,089.32 19505 Jan-11 92.83 0.1175 14750 823,877.53 19588.38 Feb-11 100.29 0.1217 16525 743,902.37 19651.36 Mar-11 109.84 0.1231 19700 949,439.80 20484.69 Apr-11 118.09 0.1389 21100 1,128,908.40 20772.19 May-11 109.94 0.1751 21100 944,547.05 20486.57 Jun-11 109.04 0.1978 21100 813,346.99 20445.85 Jul-11 111.62 0.2082 21100 512,408.04 20504.9 Aug-11 106.32 0.2216 21100 835,056.31 20513 Sep-11 107.61 0.2242 21100 943,228.97 20733.42 Oct-11 106.29 0.2302 20750 721,556.87 20726.43 Nov-11 110.08 0.2159 20400 786,131.76 20765.85 Dec-11 107.34 0.1983 20400 675,621.03 20913.43 Jan-12 111.76 0.1813 20400 552,073.89 20848.95 Feb-12 117.48 0.1742 20400 735,952.13 20765.1 Mar-12 122.97 0.1644 20900 840,056.66 20759.33 Apr-12 118.18 0.14 21400 925,825.82 20738.9 May-12 108.07 0.1054 21400 808,369.68 20690.14 Jun-12 93.98 0.0834 20600 947,967.96 20659.8 Jul-12 99.55 0.069 20100 718,933.93 20648.24 Aug-12 109.52 0.0535 21400 757,769.29 20546.9 Sep-12 110.67 0.0504 21850 757,365.35 20556.78 Oct-12 108.36 0.0648 21850 724,251.39 20643.67 Nov-12 106.86 0.07 21850 654,100.59 20839 Dec-12 106.55 0.0708 21675 536,202.53 20806.31 Jan-13 109.28 0.0681 21500 479,519.12 20830.24 Feb-13 112.75 0.0707 21500 479,823.21 20834.94 Mar-13 106.44 0.0702 21700 704,794.25 20932.23 C Ch y mơ hình d báo th c hi n ki C1 Mơ hình 1: nh c xây d ng d a mơ hình h i quy b i Mơ hình có d sau: Yi = X1i X2i Thành ph n ei m t bi p Xpi + ei c l p ng u nhiên có phân ph i chu n v i trung Mô hình h i quy n tính b i gi nh r ng bi n ph thu c có phân ph i chu n v i b t k k t h p c a bi c l p mơ hình M t gi nh quan tr ng n i v i mơ hình h i quy n tính khơng có bi n gi i thích GVHD: ThS Nguy Ph l c trang 24 Th nh Tài Chính D uT T ng Khánh có th c bi u th i d ng t h p n tính v i bi n gi i thích cịn l i N u t n t i m t quan h y hi ng n a Ki nh h s B ng 2: Descriptive Statistics B ng 3: Correlation - Vi c ki nh h s cc u tiên ti n hành ch y mơ hình Ma tr n h s hi a bi n ph thu c bi c l p, gi a bi c l p v i Nhìn vào ma tr n h s a bi c gi a bi n có x y hi ng n hay không V r t quan tr ng, n u hi ng c ng n x y bi c l p kh i liên h ch t v ng c a bi n gi i thích cho bi n ph thu c c a mơ hình s tin c GVHD: ThS Nguy Ph l c trang 25 Th nh Tài Chính D uT T ng Khánh bi c có hi ng n hay khơng ta nhìn vào h s quan, n u b ng ho c -1 x y hi ng n - Khi t t c bi c l i (nhìn vào B ng Correlations, h s a bi u r t l n) ng c a m i bi cl n bi n ph thu c r ph thu c r t l n vào bi không th tách riêng, t c khó có th gi u ki n gi bi cl i s h i quy riêng c a t ng bi c l p Và ng làm h s h i quy riêng c a t ng bi cl ic v l n - Vì v nh t m quan tr ng c a bi n chúng c s d ng v i nh ng bi n khác mơ hình ta dùng h s ng ph quan riêng (Part anh partial correlations) b ng Coefficients - V i k t qu ch y d li n th y r ng hồn tồn khơng có hi n ng n x y mơ hình d báo b Ki nh m phù h p c a mơ hình B ng 4: Variables Entered Removed B ng 5: Model Summary B ng 6: Anova GVHD: ThS Nguy Ph l c trang 26 Th nh Tài Chính D uT T ng Khánh i v i mơ hình h i quy b i, R2 hi u ch nh s ph n ánh m phù h p c a mơ hình h i quy n Dùng R hi u ch nh s s khơng th i ph ng m phù h p c a mơ hình t qu ch y t mơ hình trên, ta th y R2 hi u ch nh (Adjusted R Square) 91,1% Con s cao, ch ng t m pc y t gi thuy t: Ho H1 : T n t T mơ hình ch y ta có Sig F Change r t nh , kho ng 0,000 cho th y s an toàn bác b gi thuy t Ho t h p bi n có mơ hình có th gi i cs i c a bi n giá d u DO 0,05S t i Vi t Nam, hay nói khác, mơ hình ta xây d ng phù h p v i t p d li y c - - - s h i quy riêng mơ hình B ng 7: Cofficients ah s h ng s i giá tr trung bình c a bi n ph thu c m t bi cl im , bi cl p cịn l i Nói cách khác, cho bi t ng thu n c i m v b t k m t bi cl i v i giá tr trung bình c a bi n ph thu c lo i tr ng c a bi c l p khác Lo i bi i v i mơ hình d a vào giá tr Sig b ng V tin c y ta ch n 90%, ta s u Sig c a t ng bi n l n b lo i V i k t qu c, nhân t (bi ch y mơ hình ta s s d ng ch m n thi t ph i ch y thêm nh i bi n khác Mơ hình d báo: GVHD: ThS Nguy Ph l c trang 27 Th nh Tài Chính D uT T ng Khánh Price DO 0,05S in VN = -25.504,761 + 76,299* OPEC Basket Average Price (USD) + 6.541,927 Vietnam Inflation + 1,913 * Currency + 0,001 * VN Oil Import (1.000 USD) 1.748,965 Environment = -25.504,761: h s t hay g i h s ch n, ph n ánh giá d u DO 0,05S bình qn khơng ph thu c vào ngun nhân có mơ hình OPEC Basket Average Price = 76,299: OPEC Basket average price v Gía d u DO 0,05S t i VN t Gía d u DO 0,05S Currency = 1,913: t giá USDVND t i VN Gía d u DO 0,05S VN Oil Import = 0,001: VN oil import t i VN Gía d u Vietnam Inflation = 6.541,927: Vietnam Inflation DO 0,05S t i VN nh Gía d u DO Environment = -1.748,965: Environment không 0,05S t i VN i gi m 1748,965 d Ki m nh l i gi thuy t d1 Dị tìm vi ph m gi nh c n thi t M t tình hu ng vi ph m gi nh x y riêng v i h i quy n tính b hi ng c ng dị tìm vi ph m gi cg ng ng n (Collinearity Diagnostics) Các công c chu ns t n t i c a c ng n trong d li c ng n làm thối hóa tham s ng là: - ch p nh n c a nhân t hay bi n (Tolerance) H s tion factor VIF) Khi Tolerance nh VIF l n, quy t ng n u hi u c a B ng cho ta th y VIF c a nhân t hay bi u nh ki nh m t l n n a giúp ta kh nh r ng khơng có hi ng iv c xây d ng d2 Ki nh ph ng n n (h s Spearman) xem mơ hình có vi ph i v i gi nh i hay không Gi thuy t cho ki s c GVHD: ThS Nguy sai c a sai s n t ng th gi a ph i, n u gi thuy t c l p s khác Ph l c trang 28 Th nh Tài Chính D uT T Ta s th c hi n ki ABSRES_1 (tr i c a ph ng Khánh i v i t ng bi Gi thuy t H0 h s ng b ng 0, n u k t qu ki b gi thuy t H0 t tin t c l i n u Sig c a ki i ch p nh n gi thuy a sai s Các k t qu k t lu GVHD: ThS Nguy uc a sai s c l p nh không bác nh nh c i c phép khơng bác bó gi thuy t H0 i Ph l c trang 29 Th d3 Ki nh Tài Chính D uT T ng Khánh nh phân ph i chu n c a ph Ph i chu n b i nh i h ng s , s ng ph i chu n c a ph c ki t n s Histogram, Q-Q Plot ho c P-P Plot d ng sai nhi nh thông qua bi i v i t n s Histogram ta có Mean x p x b ng 0, Std-Dev b ng 0,059 t c px b k t lu n r ng gi thuy t không vi ph iv it n s P-P Plot ta th m quan sát không phân ph ng k v có th k t lu n r ng gi thuy t phân ph i chu n không vi ph m GVHD: ThS Nguy Ph l c trang 30 Th nh Tài Chính D OPEC Basket Average Price22 (USD) Currency23 (USDVND) 95,575 95,575 95,575 21.001,66 21.139,91 21.233,32 21.333,35 12.052 12.212 12.734 13.417 8,20% 9,063% 8% 7,5% 21.299,98 21.084,306 21.193,98 21.353,311 VN Oil Import (trieu USD) Vietnam Inflation (End of Year Change %) Environment Nh ng Khánh 102,61 24 Price DO 0,05S in VN uT T m h n ch i v i mơ hình này: m: - Nh ng d li nên k t qu ch ch y mơ hình ch y u ngu n d li u th c p c l y t ngu y ch không ph i d li p, y H n ch : - - D li u m gian ng n, t y, nhiên ch l y m t kho ng th i n tháng 3/2012 nên có th c m t cách ng bi ng chung c a n n kinh t Bi n Vietnam Inflation, Vietnam Oil Import xét v m t th c t t i Vi t Nam không th hi ng mơ hình b i hai lý sau: N bi tính giá d u D0 0,05S qua t m tính dịng ti n c án m phát, su t chi t kh u c a d c u ch nh theo l m phát, không th t h p lý N i n Vietnam Oil Import vào mơ hình, lúc ta th y r ng gi nh c i v i bi n không phù h p, không gi nh ng ta k v ng, nhu c u nh p kh Lý c a v t i Vi t Nam, nhu c u nh p kh u d u c tính d a theo h n ng nh c n vào, khơng th hi c ph n nhu c u t c ta C2 Mơ hình 2: 22 http://www.economywatch.com/economicVietnam Inflation (End of Year Change %) statistics/Vietnam/Inflation_End_of_Year_Change_Percentage/) 23 OPEC Basket Average Price (USD) http://www.economywatch.com/economic-statistics/price-index-indicators/Crude_Oil_Spot_Price_Averages/ 24 http://www.economywatch.com/economic-statistics/price-index-indicators/Crude_Oil_Spot_Price_Averages/ VN Oil Import (trieu USD) http://www.economywatch.com/economic-statistics/Vietnam/Value_Oil_Imports/ GVHD: ThS Nguy Ph l c trang 31 Th nh Tài Chính D uT T ng Khánh B i nh ng h n ch t mơ hình 1, mơ hình s lo Vietnam Inflation, Vietnam Oil Import Mơ hình lúc l i bi n n giá d u DO 0,05S t i Vi t Nam: OPEC Basket Average Price USD, Currency, Environment k t qu cho th t ti n hành ch y mơ hình ki nh gi thuy t có liên quan, u th c nh ng phép ki nh quan tr ng a Ki nh h s B ng 8: Descriptive Statistics B ng 9: Correlation V i k t qu ch y d li n th y r ng hoàn tồn khơng có hi n ng n x y mơ hình d báo b Ki nh m phù h p c a mơ hình B ng 10: Variables Entered Removed GVHD: ThS Nguy Ph l c trang 32 Th nh Tài Chính D uT T ng Khánh B ng 11: Model Summary B ng 12: Anova t qu ch y t mơ hình trên, ta th y R2 hi u ch nh (Adjusted R Square) 89,9% M ng t m phù h p c y c s h i quy riêng mơ hình B ng 13: Cofficients Mơ hình d báo: Price DO 0,05S in VN = -24.106,487 + 72,765 * OPEC Basket Average Price (USD) + 1,856 * Currency 1.685,836 * Environment = -24.106,487: h s t hay g i h s ch n, ph n ánh giá d u DO 0,05S bình qn khơng ph thu c vào ngun nhân có mơ hình OPEC Basket Average Price = 72,765: OPEC Basket average price v Gía d u DO 0,05S t i VN Gía d u DO 0,05S Currency = 1,856: t giá USDVND t i VN GVHD: ThS Nguy Ph l c trang 33 Th nh Tài Chính D uT T ng Khánh = -1.685,836: Environment không 0,05S t i VN i gi Environment OPEC Basket Average Price (USD) Currency (USDVND) nh Gía d u DO Price DO 0,05S in VN d Ki nh l i gi thuy t d1 Dị tìm vi ph m gi 95,575 95,575 95,575 21.001,66 21.139,91 21.233,32 21.333,35 Environment 102,61 1 20.652,25 20.397,865 20.571,234 20.756,833 nh c n thi t B ng 13 cho ta th y VIF c a nhân t hay bi u nh ki m nh m t l n n a giúp ta kh nh r ng khơng có hi iv c xây d ng d2 Ki nh ph Các k t qu ta có th k t lu d3 Ki GVHD: ThS Nguy ng n n (h s Spearman) a sai s c phép khơng bác bó gi thuy t H0 i nh phân ph i chu n c a ph Ph l c trang 34 Th nh Tài Chính D uT T ng Khánh i v i n n kinh t Vi t Nam mà nói, r i ro l n nh t r i ro v u hành c c N u Vi t giá USDVND th n i, khơng qu n lý, theo H c thuy t ngang giá s c mua (PPP), t giá USDVND s a vào l m phát d n 2013 2015 c a IMF), không ch doanh nghi p c mà c iv u có th ng kh ng ho ng kinh t , s n xu GVHD: ThS Nguy Ph l c trang 35 ... Chính D uT T ng Khánh Chi nhánh Hịa Bình PGD K Hịa ng Khánh Hình m i ho ng c a Eximbank Hịa Bình 3.2 GI I THI U V NG KHÁNH 3.2.1 L ch s hình thành phát tri n c ng Khánh ng Khánh b u thành l ng... hành th nh tài i ngân hàng t s gi i pháp, ki n ngh tham kh o làm n n cho khóa lu n GVHD: ThS Nguy 22 Th nh Tài Chính D uT T ng Khánh I NG KHÁNH 3.1 T NG QUAN V EXIMBANK NG KHÁNH CN HỊA BÌNH PGD.. . phịng tín d v ng th GVHD: ThS Nguy ti p nh n th c t p: Ngân hàng TMCP CN Hịa Bình ng Khánh, su t trình th c t p tài i Th nh Tài Chính D uT T ng Khánh NH N XÉT C TH C T P ······························································································································