Kinh tế vĩ mô - Chương 11 pptx

1 kinh t v mô bn th nm N. Gregory Mankiw Bài ging ca Phm Th Anh pham.theanh@yahoo.com (dch và sa theo bài ging ca Ron Cronovich) CHNG 11 Tng Cu II macro © 2002 Worth Publishers, all rights reserved CHAPTER 11 CHAPTER 11 Aggregate Demand II Aggregate Demand II slide 1 Bi cnh Bi cnh      !"#$ %&'() *+,  -.$/0%1%2*3 ! "# 4 '5'67%/%89& :.:;<%=.>? @9<8A 4 '()*+, 4 @:B<,97@0., @CD? ). CHAPTER 11 CHAPTER 11 Aggregate Demand II Aggregate Demand II slide 2 E0..0@:F*)=B0    .9(GHI90A, D, "# 9? (GHIA,J Cân bng trong mô hình Cân bng trong mô hình IS IS - - LM LM D,  9? (GHIA, .           = − + +       =         CHAPTER 11 CHAPTER 11 Aggregate Demand II Aggregate Demand II slide 3 Phân tích chính sách vi mô hình Phân tích chính sách vi mô hình IS IS - - LM LM .?A7% KL:G:%8 @:MGH N 7%@.O  P.Q  N 7%JO  /0K%2*3   !"# (7 RS0B7%)           = − + +       =         CHAPTER 11 CHAPTER 11 Aggregate Demand II Aggregate Demand II slide 4 <T%9<F U;   S gia tng chi tiêu chính ph S gia tng chi tiêu chính ph ,  *A9L<F GH        ∆ −    #V         W DJ)<T J$ @:.< %=TX W YXK <9$*.;)%+ 0T8ZS0  < [  ∆ −    #V  Y CHAPTER 11 CHAPTER 11 Aggregate Demand II Aggregate Demand II slide 5    Ct gim thu Ct gim thu              \.,I*Z:@ ]−#V^: > 9$ I%+0TG0 S0I< [ 8∆ ∆∆ ∆  %.T ∆ ∆∆ ∆  L<F+ X ,  *A%09 L<FGH #V  #V  − ∆ −  W W X*.;)R8    < [8∆ ∆∆ ∆  %.T∆ ∆∆ ∆  L<F + W 2 CHAPTER 11 CHAPTER 11 Aggregate Demand II Aggregate Demand II slide 6 W X<.<%= 9  Chính sách tin t: Chính sách tin t: s gia tng s gia tng    ∆ ∆∆ ∆  _<*A ), "# '8* ]0)%09^               Y XK <T $<T%9 <FU; CHAPTER 11 CHAPTER 11 Aggregate Demand II Aggregate Demand II slide 7 S tng tác gia chính sách tin t S tng tác gia chính sách tin t & chính sách tài khoá & chính sách tài khoá  #O G:7%JU@. ]  $    ^<.?%  -:+O .?A7%JKJ `  9R<?B0)S07% @.$ .QF<?  +;)K<0) LS0%+0)7%G0 CHAPTER 11 CHAPTER 11 Aggregate Demand II Aggregate Demand II slide 8 S phn ng ca NHT vi S phn ng ca NHT vi ∆ ∆∆ ∆ ∆ ∆∆ ∆   > 0 > 0  E9%2Ha8Lb):AT    cB9RKKS0cd-e<O  B)I  W B)I  Y B)I   -.f,F$RS0 ∆ ∆∆ ∆  < @0O CHAPTER 11 CHAPTER 11 Aggregate Demand II Aggregate Demand II slide 9 c:a8LT  $ ,  *A%09   Phn ng Phn ng 1: 1: gi nguyên gi nguyên                 c:cd-eB )I  $ , "# @ *A) g:b9 <O W     ∆ = − W     ∆ = − CHAPTER 11 CHAPTER 11 Aggregate Demand II Aggregate Demand II slide 10 c:a8LT  $ ,  *A%09   Phn ng Phn ng 2: 2: gi nguyên gi nguyên                 D B  @$ cd-eT  H <*A), "# %09 Y     ∆ = −   ∆ =     g:b9 <O CHAPTER 11 CHAPTER 11 Aggregate Demand II Aggregate Demand II slide 11 c:a8LT  $ ,  *A%09   Phn ng Phn ng 3: 3: gi nguyên gi nguyên               D B  @$ cd-e9  H <*A), "# %0   ∆ = Y     ∆ = −   g:b9 <O     3 CHAPTER 11 CHAPTER 11 Aggregate Demand II Aggregate Demand II slide 12   c lng các s nhân ca chính c lng các s nhân ca chính sách tài khoá sách tài khoá h@:<FM\i    ! " #$ #%& ∆ ∆∆ ∆ P ∆ ∆∆ ∆  cd-eB)I< %=*0M0 cd-eB)I J $Y $j  !" #$  #%& ∆ ∆∆ ∆ P ∆ ∆∆ ∆  − −− −$ − −− −$Wj CHAPTER 11 CHAPTER 11 Aggregate Demand II Aggregate Demand II slide 13 Các cú sc trong mô hình Các cú sc trong mô hình IS IS - - LM LM '($)*  O B0).?%J .U*A3 k7*3O N %+GZ.Q%3S0A,R @.  <0)%9S0L0  ∆ ∆∆ ∆  N %+0)<l0)@CmS0*.0 .Q,I*Z  ∆ ∆∆ ∆  P.Q ∆ ∆∆ ∆  CHAPTER 11 CHAPTER 11 Aggregate Demand II Aggregate Demand II slide 14 Các cú sc trong mô hình Các cú sc trong mô hình IS IS - - LM LM '($)*  O B0).? %JJ k7*3O N ?0<;n7*3<T J N J)o-#.Q 66< 9J CHAPTER 11 CHAPTER 11 Aggregate Demand II Aggregate Demand II slide 15 Bài tp: Bài tp: Phân tích các cú sc trong mô hình IS Phân tích các cú sc trong mô hình IS - - LM LM 2*3  !"# (7RS0  +GZS0A,R@. <.,I*ZK W 0<%K<9n7*3$, I*Z%2*3JQ,')I .0.*A kf/%8$ 0 %2*3Gp  !"# `0RS0 /%88     G 'A'6J'9)0  $  $q <= CHAPTER 11 CHAPTER 11 Aggregate Demand II Aggregate Demand II slide 16 Tình hung Tình hung Suy thoái kinh t  M trong nm Suy thoái kinh t  M trong nm 2001 2001 rDJ'9)0r -8LT&E\V+: s!WO Y$t]Gb(T^ WO$Wt W-q<= WPWO s$t WPWOu$vt CHAPTER 11 CHAPTER 11 Aggregate Demand II Aggregate Demand II slide 17 Tình hung Tình hung Suy thoái kinh t  M trong nm 2001 Suy thoái kinh t  M trong nm 2001 rcB/%8K()%).r  +%3S0: -hvPW .vPWO !Wut -%0 PO !Wt WcB3=@SG8)P N <T7G= N 9<lS0,I*ZU *.0 90/%8J<9I*A ),w %0 4 CHAPTER 11 CHAPTER 11 Aggregate Demand II Aggregate Demand II slide 18 Tình hung Tình hung Suy thoái kinh t  M trong nm 2001 Suy thoái kinh t  M trong nm 2001 rV9R7%r 7%@. N >9:?.,@C*$ 0)<;R.:xY N TIO F/8c6yz.@ U @$ L:8@SG8 W7%J N cd-e9<%=3I <.TW$h j$ut'8 ${ut N -T&JT$<%=9 CHAPTER 11 CHAPTER 11 Aggregate Demand II Aggregate Demand II slide 19 Tình hung Tình hung Suy thoái kinh t  M trong nm 2001 Suy thoái kinh t  M trong nm 2001 r DJ'9)0 r  -.b|TWW$E\V+:T j$t%.Z@CT$6.%8< G8G&}qG0V(7g:) W{PjPWW  -)I$6.0=S0m. ){PjPWW$}qG0IR@C @*.0S0 c~•i0'AF )S0@C$Q*Zm; HJ@:Kn03p CHAPTER 11 CHAPTER 11 Aggregate Demand II Aggregate Demand II slide 20 â â u là công c chính sách ca NHT? u là công c chính sách ca NHT? -6.G.:O €)0)cd-e9<%=$ut• DJ+%+'9)0O cd-e+7%J&L H*A),"#%09. @<%=9$ut cd-eQ3I .<%=>?‚‚iO mG8LA3I$%2*3 7%J<*A),"# R:?F3IK cd- cd- e e   Q3I Q3I .<%=>?‚‚iO .<%=>?‚‚iO mG8LA3I$%2*3 mG8LA3I$%2*3 7%J<*A),"# 7%J<*A),"# R:?F3IK R:?F3IK CHAPTER 11 CHAPTER 11 Aggregate Demand II Aggregate Demand II slide 21 â â u là công c chính sách ca NHT? u là công c chính sách ca NHT? -?%0.cd-eQ3I.<%=0) %2*3Jƒ ^ /*„.<,J W^ cd-eKH/%8 "#  G:/%8   c:/;) Q3I<%=%1A ;8%.Q3I. J ]'6([ {0Yj^ CHAPTER 11 CHAPTER 11 Aggregate Demand II Aggregate Demand II slide 22 IS IS - - LM LM và Tng cu và Tng cu  .:,)$/0%2*3   !"# (7>?$@ 9F9A<8A  -)I$ %+0)S0  %1<*A ), "# *.;)9& :    + ,$-$./ ] . ^ 98 <I)B0    CHAPTER 11 CHAPTER 11 Aggregate Demand II Aggregate Demand II slide 23 Y  Y  Xây dng ng AD Xây dng ng AD     IS LM(P  ) LM(P  ) AD P  P  Y  Y      DL *8,o\O ↑   ↓] P ^  "# *A  ↑   ↓   ↓  5 CHAPTER 11 CHAPTER 11 Aggregate Demand II Aggregate Demand II slide 24 Chính sách tin t và ng AD Chính sách tin t và ng AD   IS LM(M  /P  ) LM(M  /P  ) AD  P  Y  Y  Y  Y      cd-eK T O ↑   "# *A9 AD     ↓   ↑   ↑  ?fR  CHAPTER 11 CHAPTER 11 Aggregate Demand II Aggregate Demand II slide 25 Y  Y    Y  Y    Chính sách tài khoá và ng AD Chính sách tài khoá và ng AD     IS  LM AD  P  7%@. & L]↑  P.Q↓  ^ <TO ↓   ↑    *A9  ↑  ?fR  AD  IS 2 CHAPTER 11 CHAPTER 11 Aggregate Demand II Aggregate Demand II slide 26 IS IS - - LM LM và và AD AD - - AS AS trong ngn hn & dài hn trong ngn hn & dài hn c<?hO "+<F*A) J@:h>?%0*? <%+J`hhS09   >   <   = T 9 @ (GH. >?$: 6.,0 R%1 CHAPTER 11 CHAPTER 11 Aggregate Demand II Aggregate Demand II slide 27 Hiu ng ngn hn và dài hn Hiu ng ngn hn và dài hn ca mt cú sc ca mt cú sc IS IS /%8  I+ *A) o\ %0$ <9       LRAS  LRAS    SRAS    LM(P  )  W AD W AD  CHAPTER 11 CHAPTER 11 Aggregate Demand II Aggregate Demand II slide 28 Hiu ng ngn hn và dài hn Hiu ng ngn hn và dài hn ca mt cú sc ca mt cú sc IS IS     LRAS  LRAS    SRAS    LM(P  )  W AD W AD  -??( GH>?$   < CHAPTER 11 CHAPTER 11 Aggregate Demand II Aggregate Demand II slide 29 Hiu ng ngn hn và dài hn Hiu ng ngn hn và dài hn ca mt cú sc ca mt cú sc IS IS     LRAS  LRAS    SRAS    LM(P  )  W AD W AD  -??( GH>?$   < -6.,0$  *9$ <. N io *A'8 * N P T$ "# *A'8* 6 CHAPTER 11 CHAPTER 11 Aggregate Demand II Aggregate Demand II slide 30 AD W Hiu ng ngn hn và dài hn Hiu ng ngn hn và dài hn ca mt cú sc ca mt cú sc IS IS     LRAS  LRAS    SRAS    LM(P  )  W AD  -6.,0$  *9$<. N io *A'8 * N P T$ "# *A'8* SRAS W  W LM(P W ) CHAPTER 11 CHAPTER 11 Aggregate Demand II Aggregate Demand II slide 31 AD W SRAS W  W LM(P W ) Hiu ng ngn hn và dài hn Hiu ng ngn hn và dài hn ca mt cú sc ca mt cú sc IS IS     LRAS  LRAS    SRAS    LM(P  )  W AD  a):3 .@J@: ?F(GH* ?   = CHAPTER 11 CHAPTER 11 Aggregate Demand II Aggregate Demand II slide 32 Bài tp: Bài tp: Phân tích tác ng ngn hn & dài hn ca Phân tích tác ng ngn hn & dài hn ca ∆ ∆∆ ∆ ∆ ∆∆ ∆   0 k1Gp  !"#  o\! o GI G E9%2cd-eT  ` 0L>? IGp  `0bJ `h>?%0 *? * .%AS0 G:L%?? (GH*? AG0S0 /ƒ     LRAS  LRAS   SRAS    LM(   P   ) AD  CHAPTER 11 CHAPTER 11 Aggregate Demand II Aggregate Demand II slide 33   i suy thoái i suy thoái Tht nghip (ct phi) GNP thc t (ct trái) 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 1929 1931 1933 1935 1937 1939 t ôla theo giá nm 1958 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 phn trm lc lng lao  ng Tht nghip (ct phi) GNP thc t (ct trái) CHAPTER 11 CHAPTER 11 Aggregate Demand II Aggregate Demand II slide 34 Gi thuyt Chi tiêu: Gi thuyt Chi tiêu: Các cú sc vi ng IS Các cú sc vi ng IS  @…AHD? ).S):< *.%+9%/.?%J. U*A3 !! %+*A)%0S0 ,   GHRO 9%9<F<%=J9$K< BK()0G&%+*A) %0S0  CHAPTER 11 CHAPTER 11 Aggregate Demand II Aggregate Demand II slide 35 Gi thuyt Chi tiêu : Gi thuyt Chi tiêu : Nhng nguyên nhân làm Nhng nguyên nhân làm IS IS dch chuyn dch chuyn  +%3S0A,:  .?% ↓   PWPWO UVu9 {t  PW!WPYYO UVu9 {t W + %39  €J`• %0@7<† b J.B TW  B=G? G:S0 8(< .pF@K@T Y 7%@. >Q  8Q%+ %/9*.0: 0T (3$7@T: %= > 9I 7 CHAPTER 11 CHAPTER 11 Aggregate Demand II Aggregate Demand II slide 36 Gi thuyt Tin t: Gi thuyt Tin t: Mt cú sc vi ng LM Mt cú sc vi ng LM  @…AHD? ).S):< *.%+9%/?S0J  GHRO #9 Wut.0.? W!YY -)I$ K0=J9):)O   ;79?$ *.;) P +=T‡0.?W!Y W <%=*0M09$J)( ˆ@:b9S0%+*A)%0 S0, "#  CHAPTER 11 CHAPTER 11 Aggregate Demand II Aggregate Demand II slide 37 Gi thuyt Tin t: Gi thuyt Tin t: Hiu ng ca Giá gim Hiu ng ca Giá gim  @…AHRLIm S0D? ).<*.%+9 ?O  9 Wut.0.? W!YY  +9)K<1<*. %+9%/S0  $*.;)K<1JK L0lb0m  +99&:.: J@:ƒ CHAPTER 11 CHAPTER 11 Aggregate Demand II Aggregate Demand II slide 38 Gi thuyt Tin t: Gi thuyt Tin t: Hiu ng ca Giá gim Hiu ng ca Giá gim dRA.S0%+9O  ↓   ↑] P ^ "# *A9  ↑   0/1$$2/O ↓   ↑] P ^  %9,I*Z↑  ↑    *A9  ↑  CHAPTER 11 CHAPTER 11 Aggregate Demand II Aggregate Demand II slide 39 Gi thuyt Tin t: Gi thuyt Tin t: Hiu ng ca Giá gim Hiu ng ca Giá gim dR=A.S0%+9@@C mO "3/45#6 $78 ↓  ]:@F@C m^  )0.%R0h,0)%0, .0)  ,0)I7$,.0)I J  :'IS0,0)< ,.0)$ I9$,  *A$   9 CHAPTER 11 CHAPTER 11 Aggregate Demand II Aggregate Demand II slide 40 Gi thuyt Tin t: Gi thuyt Tin t: Hiu ng ca Giá gim Hiu ng ca Giá gim dR=A.S09@C mO ↓π 6   ↑ 8f A S0    ↓ G&  ‰  ]  ^  I*+ @: U ↓ ↓↓ ↓  ; U%9<F↓ ↓↓ ↓ CHAPTER 11 CHAPTER 11 Aggregate Demand II Aggregate Demand II slide 41 Ti sao mt cuc i Suy thoái khác Ti sao mt cuc i Suy thoái khác không th xy ra không th xy ra  .?A7%].Q8=S0 m^,()G:ŠJ@„MO  cd-e@  9b?$QG< .,@C%).  .?A7%@.@T :.Q>9I.,@C%).  ~9.J2<.%+%3S08 (<@'9)0  '9*-:;$ <.7% @.&L.,@C@:'8 8 CHAPTER 11 CHAPTER 11 Aggregate Demand II Aggregate Demand II slide 42 Tóm tt chng Tóm tt chng    !"#  L<|):J  G:.?%O  $  $  $  .?%.>?$  .*?  G:L%O  $  L%.>?$  .*?  ,  O (GHS0A,.  , "# O (GHS0A,J CHAPTER 11 CHAPTER 11 Aggregate Demand II Aggregate Demand II slide 43 Tóm tt chng Tóm tt chng W ,o\  .G:8b0B0  ;(GH$  .  !"#   L*8(G& ↑   ↓] P ^ ↑   ↓   ↓   7%@. & L*A)  %09$ T;$ *A) o\ %09  7%J & L*A), "# %09$ T;$  *A) o\ %09  / %8  .Q "# <*A), o\ . ∆ ∆∆ ∆  P.Q ∆ ∆∆ ∆  CHAPTER 11 CHAPTER 11 Aggregate Demand II Aggregate Demand II slide 14 Các cú sc trong mô hình Các cú sc trong mô hình IS IS - - LM LM '($)*  O B0).? %JJ k7*3O N. *A9  ↑  ?fR  AD  IS 2 CHAPTER 11 CHAPTER 11 Aggregate Demand II Aggregate Demand II slide 26 IS IS - - LM LM và và AD AD - - AS AS trong ngn hn & dài hn trong ngn. trong mô hình Cân bng trong mô hình IS IS - - LM LM D,  9? (GHIA, .           = − + +       =         CHAPTER 11 CHAPTER