Kinh tế vĩ mô - Chương 12 pptx

1 kinh t v mô bn th nm N. Gregory Mankiw Bài ging ca Phm Th Anh pham.theanh@yahoo.com (dch và sa theo bài ging ca Ron Cronovich) macro © 2002 Worth Publishers, all rights reserved CHNG 12 Tng Cu trong Nn Kinh t M CHAPTER 12 CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand in the Open Economy Aggregate Demand in the Open Economy slide 1 Mc tiêu ca chng Mc tiêu ca chng        !"#$%&'() #*(+  ,'-!./01/% 2!"013  45627 CHAPTER 12 CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand in the Open Economy Aggregate Demand in the Open Economy slide 2 Mô hình Mô hình Mundell Mundell - - Fleming Fleming  8%13$',9 !:()3;5<% =>  ?   @ <A,3,56"/156 B  C D C D C D           = − + + + ,1E  ?./01/'F' ?(0=#,G1H!3G# CHAPTER 12 CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand in the Open Economy Aggregate Demand in the Open Economy slide 3   ng ng IS* IS* : : Cân bng trên th trng hàng hoá Cân bng trên th trng hàng hoá 456 B 15I!J GK B +13> LF'&'1G0   B C D C D C D           = − + + +    ↓  ↑  ↑ CHAPTER 12 CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand in the Open Economy Aggregate Demand in the Open Economy slide 4   ng ng LM* LM* : Cân bng trên th trng tin t : Cân bng trên th trng tin t 456 B  15I!JGK B +13  EM1K<! !:GK  + 13N OEG/ ,3 &'  "  <A7!: N<+;  >   B C N D      = CHAPTER 12 CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand in the Open Economy Aggregate Demand in the Open Economy slide 5 Cân bng trong mô hình Cân bng trong mô hình Mundell Mundell - - Fleming Fleming   B C N D      = B C D C D C D           = − + + + t giá hi oái cân bng mc thu nhp cân bng 2 CHAPTER 12 CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand in the Open Economy Aggregate Demand in the Open Economy slide 6 T giá th ni T giá th ni & & c nh c nh  P,#0N  15I QRQ'1G1;Q/K!: '12>  5I=N ,#0 N  ",5H'</ =#=GK/S/13,5:>  T 6U'*SSR/V (/"/N#!"5H= ,5: ",#0./01/% 2N('1E",#0./01/ 013> CHAPTER 12 CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand in the Open Economy Aggregate Demand in the Open Economy slide 7 Chính sách tài khoá trong h thng Chính sách tài khoá trong h thng t giá hi oái c nh t giá hi oái c nh   C N D      = C D C D C D           = − + + +  W  W W   W   X    X P=<+Y/,3"&'  N (),G"/"Z  N 3; B ('Q%> [$%" ∆ ∆∆ ∆  \]N∆ ∆∆ ∆  ?] CHAPTER 12 CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand in the Open Economy Aggregate Demand in the Open Economy slide 8 Bài hc v chính sách tài khoá Bài hc v chính sách tài khoá  P,G   !:5<% ;=NV(/"/ 0^ E %Z"'128_`)>  a) +/b c 1E @V(/"/ +/175<A/ "Z*(+> c    @V(/"/ +/S+d,e <A/". /Z> CHAPTER 12 CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand in the Open Economy Aggregate Demand in the Open Economy slide 9 Chính sách tin t trong h thng Chính sách tin t trong h thng t giá hi oái th ni t giá hi oái th ni   C N D      = C D C D C D           = − + + +  W  W W   W    X X    X )'Z  3; 156 B ('Q%<!  Q%Z1;Qf=  <A,3,56#> [$%" ∆ ∆∆ ∆  g]N∆ ∆∆ ∆  \] CHAPTER 12 CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand in the Open Economy Aggregate Demand in the Open Economy slide 10 Bài hc v chính sách tin t Bài hc v chính sách tin t  @V(/#/1G1(%5I<A //1G1GChD"Q7 &'27 1E ↑   ↓   ↑   ↑   ↑   ↓   ↑   ↑   @V(/#,G"Z2 7&':NE"Z7!"/ ,5:C%7!"=D> _!-N()'Z-Q!"!#", 5:1iF'!:()%(U-Q!"!# "5:"> CHAPTER 12 CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand in the Open Economy Aggregate Demand in the Open Economy slide 11 Chính sách thng mi trong ch  Chính sách thng mi trong ch  t giá th ni t giá th ni C N D      = C D C D C D           = − + + +    W  W W   W   X    X P=<+Y/,3"&'  N $'h==" %-QdNZS+d ,eN !"3; B (' Q%> [$%" ∆ ∆∆ ∆  \]N∆ ∆∆ ∆  ?] 3 CHAPTER 12 CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand in the Open Economy Aggregate Demand in the Open Economy slide 12 Bài hc v chính sách thng mi Bài hc v chính sách thng mi  j#= -Qd; "% f5H =>  h^  12N 5E V=1G5H= H k j#=5H="%-Qd k () / &'. / "%S+d l=1G5H=E F'" VaIVm5H=b H>n  o= -Qd10!:G(0 h"f ; E ;  , !#",G(0 "G13'(%S+h ""N ="+1!#", !)(%S+"S+d> _!-N= -Qd+<=,!#"Z2 (0 !#",> Pi#HN= -Qde=,'b() 3; !)bN ,'+#Q=6> CHAPTER 12 CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand in the Open Economy Aggregate Demand in the Open Economy slide 13 T giá hi oái c nh T giá hi oái c nh  P,#0./01/013N  ",5H&'G5:(p(" 'h</G#+=#=GK /13,5:>  P,N  " ,5H3;156 B  71;  =K./1*<0>  o#0"013./01/'F'> P,"=N/%=N./0 1/)E;'12-V./ 01/'F'013> CHAPTER 12 CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand in the Open Economy Aggregate Demand in the Open Economy slide 14 Chính sách tài khoá trong h thng Chính sách tài khoá trong h thng t giá hi oái c nh t giá hi oái c nh    W  W W   W   X   q,r','(N' r('SQ'(s ,'(  > [$%" ∆ ∆∆ ∆  ?]N∆ ∆∆ ∆  \]  X X   PQ  r,,(N ,'<'( ((,,N s,'((  '(r( B ,> P,#0./% 2NV(/"/ #$% ,!# '12(%5I> P,#0./0 13NV(/"/ #$% ,!#'12 (%5I> CHAPTER 12 CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand in the Open Economy Aggregate Demand in the Open Economy slide 15 Chính sách tin t trong h thng Chính sách tin t trong h thng t giá hi oái c nh t giá hi oái c nh X   t,'(  s(r B ,',  >    W W   W    W PQ,!r'  N ,'<'( <(,,N s,(  ' (r( B <'r> [$%" ∆ ∆∆ ∆  ?]N∆ ∆∆ ∆  ?] P,#0./%2N V#,+#$% , !#'12(%5I> P,#0./013N ;(ufV# 1;'12(%5I > X   CHAPTER 12 CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand in the Open Economy Aggregate Demand in the Open Economy slide 16 Chính sách thng mi trong h thng Chính sách thng mi trong h thng t giá hi oái c nh t giá hi oái c nh    W  W W   W   X   t,(,Q,( Q(Qs',Q,((,   > v(( ∆ ∆∆ ∆  ?]N∆ ∆∆ ∆  \]  X X   PQ  r,,(N ,'<'( ((,,N s,'((  '(r( B ,> P,1G./%2N!# =-Qd% 51  h  > P,1G./013N!# =-Qd"Z  !"  > PNIV15I" 1!:#=&' 5:/N<!V(/" 1H7;m7" =('7"G> CHAPTER 12 CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand in the Open Economy Aggregate Demand in the Open Economy slide 17 M M - - F: F: Tóm tt các hiu ng chính sách Tóm tt các hiu ng chính sách ↑ ] ↑ ] ↑ ] =-Qd ]]] ↑↓↑ ,G# ]] ↑↓↑ ] ,G"/ @V(/ /1G1 013%2 =1G./01/ 4 CHAPTER 12 CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand in the Open Economy Aggregate Demand in the Open Economy slide 18 S chênh lch lãi sut S chênh lch lãi sut o'w=('  E;/ B  ,&,1h,5m5: v&,S^I&'561!'5:1E <+2!hV,3> 56!'7*(+'H1;<^1xQ =,&,">  ./Y!9'12 ./&'G5:15IY!9%N 561!'Q%,%GK*(+'H A<^1xQ()+/Y!956 !'> CHAPTER 12 CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand in the Open Economy Aggregate Demand in the Open Economy slide 19 S chênh lch lãi sut trong mô hình S chênh lch lãi sut trong mô hình M M - - F F ,1E θ θθ θ " Q75,&,> P'<;K<;y  !"/Q5H, B !" B  C N D      = + θ C D C D C D           = − + + + + θ    θ θθ θ = + CHAPTER 12 CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand in the Open Economy Aggregate Demand in the Open Economy slide 20 Hiu ng ca s gia tng Hiu ng ca s gia tng θ θ X   B 3,/N <! ↑ θ  ↑   ↓     W  W W   W   B 3Q%N<! ↑ θ  ↑   ↓C z D  N !-  Q%ZA Qf= <A3,56 #> [$%" ∆ ∆∆ ∆  g]N∆ ∆∆ ∆  \] X    X  X CHAPTER 12 CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand in the Open Economy Aggregate Demand in the Open Economy slide 21  )%(U&'  "y+ )'Z,&,G5:h()%(U ./15IY!9"!#1i 5:1ER+Q{H> @Uw  ()%(U./Y!9" !#)(y>  )'Z&'  S%,'E()'Z&'  C6()+/D -V:H(!:()%(U&'  C  ZD> Hiu ng ca s gia tng Hiu ng ca s gia tng θ θ CHAPTER 12 CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand in the Open Economy Aggregate Demand in the Open Economy slide 22 Ti sao thu nhp có th không tng Ti sao thu nhp có th không tng   ",5HE;0xZ h()+/G#<A/%   )+/G#E;"Z/" -Qd1&1;"ZK/ C1"(J"%)D  56^E;Q%K10!:() 'Z,&,<A/H> |G/1G,(J3;156 B (',/> CHAPTER 12 CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand in the Open Economy Aggregate Demand in the Open Economy slide 23 Tình hung: Tình hung: Khng hong ng Peso Khng hong ng Peso ca Mexico ca Mexico 10 15 20 25 30 35 7/10/94 8/29/94 10/18/94 12/7/94 1/26/95 3/17/95 5/6/95 U.S. Cents per Mexican Peso 5 CHAPTER 12 CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand in the Open Economy Aggregate Demand in the Open Economy slide 24 10 15 20 25 30 35 7/10/94 8/29/94 10/18/94 12/7/94 1/26/95 3/17/95 5/6/95 U.S. Cents per Mexican Peso Tình hung: Tình hung: Khng hong ng Peso ca Mexico Khng hong ng Peso ca Mexico CHAPTER 12 CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand in the Open Economy Aggregate Demand in the Open Economy slide 25 Khng hong ng Peso không làm hi Mexico Khng hong ng Peso không làm hi Mexico  o"/F,1xH10!:  S k _'#QF+' k o",Z'#QQ/(%9 <:F S  P"(%SV1i1'% k 4*%51#5,V&' ",# F CHAPTER 12 CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand in the Open Economy Aggregate Demand in the Open Economy slide 26 Tìm hiu cuc khng hong Tìm hiu cuc khng hong j"17ZW}}]NS"G13' 1;+Q{1755:"> P,ZW}}~Ny<V,31* "Z,&,C θ θθ θ DS c  2- @'Q'( c !f /(/Ku !"17K !f 20  0 / oP•FZ*(+7,Z W}}~AZh=Q/ F> C!- ∆ B \]D CHAPTER 12 CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand in the Open Economy Aggregate Demand in the Open Economy slide 27 Tìm hiu cuc khng hong Tìm hiu cuc khng hong  ()#" (KRQ%/ 1iQ(>  oP•SfK'!:/"17 55:",A9(J1;/,3 1iQ(%N !-9'!"1iQ(!"</,' 1'Aa01€b./1iQ(>  "15I1"1eoP•S Q%E1&5I),> o9E• CHAPTER 12 CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand in the Open Economy Aggregate Demand in the Open Economy slide 28 D tr ôla ca NHT Mexico D tr ôla ca NHT Mexico WXzW}}‚ƒƒƒƒƒƒ „X…. W†z…zW}}~ƒƒƒƒƒƒ „W†. WzWXzW}}~ƒƒƒƒƒ „}. W‡zWXzW}}~ƒƒƒƒ „†. WXzW}}‚ƒƒƒƒƒƒ „X…. W†z…zW}}~ƒƒƒƒƒƒ „W†. WzWXzW}}~ƒƒƒƒƒ „}. W‡zWXzW}}~ƒƒƒƒ „†. Trong nm 1994, NHT Mexico ã che giu thc t là d tr ã thâm ht. CHAPTER 12 CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand in the Open Economy Aggregate Demand in the Open Economy slide 29   thm ho thm ho    X]zWX SQ//1iQ(W‚ˆ C013  =X‡( '! X}(D  @/"175<3 (0 (0  ƒ!"-+,AoP•xM1' =#),ƒ  ↑ ↑↑ ↑ θ θθ θ N/"175/="(% S!" ,U!0S>  XXzWX ),&'oP•)()1*> o9<*<1G./013!"%2  >  G7('1EN  % ‚]ˆ> 6 CHAPTER 12 CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand in the Open Economy Aggregate Demand in the Open Economy slide 30 Gói cu tr Gói cu tr  W}}‡F ‰-QGQ'Vf ,3/‡].„A1%<%!0!' VQ&S>  4"UQQf=e!" SN"%,&,>  'GG(/,7,9, Z W}}‡NS1*<x17Qf =J('&%> CHAPTER 12 CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand in the Open Economy Aggregate Demand in the Open Economy slide 31 Khng hong ông Nam Á Khng hong ông Nam Á -1,2% (1996-97) -25,6% -48,3% Thailand -6,8%-43,8%-36,4%Malaysia -4,3%-18,2%-12,0%Japan -0,1%-36,0%-15,6%Singapore 19,7%-14,6%Taiwan 2,3%2,7% U.S. -7,3%-21,9%-47,5%S. Korea -16,2%-32,6%-59,4% Indonesia % thay i GDP danh ngha 1997-98 % thay i th trng chng khoán t 7/97 n 1/98 % thay i t giá t 7/97 n 1/98 CHAPTER 12 CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand in the Open Economy Aggregate Demand in the Open Economy slide 32 T giá th ni và c nh T giá th ni và c nh -Q-&G./%2  QRQ(ufV(/#1; 12/f/ CZ,52 13N=Q/+QD -Q-&G./013  ,/<+2N"/'3$0 y"H  xhV(/#A,/5 m'Z,5#‰(=Q/ CHAPTER 12 CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand in the Open Economy Aggregate Demand in the Open Economy slide 33 Mundell Mundell - - Fleming Fleming và ng và ng AD AD  P,5:1 U'1*SSR!: K/013>4;S )156t_N6 1 U'SSR/1G&'()'12 `, >  @U'!/Q5H, 5(' C`717&'5H"U'E; !5:="(0&' <! !" ε εε ε '12^ 013>D C D C N D      = B C D C D C D C D           = − + + + B CHAPTER 12 CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand in the Open Economy Aggregate Demand in the Open Economy slide 34 Y Y ! Xây dng ng AD Xây dng ng AD  ε εε ε   IS* LM*(P ) LM*(P ! ) AD P P ! Y ! Y ε εε ε ! ε εε ε P=('t_E1G 0  ↑   ↓C z D   3,/  ↑ ε εε ε  ↓   ↓  CHAPTER 12 CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand in the Open Economy Aggregate Demand in the Open Economy slide 35 T ngn hn n dài hn T ngn hn n dài hn LM*(P ) ε εε ε ε εε ε !  (J S+#(KRQ "%/> P6'N  (J %S0N " C z D↑ ε εε ε ↓  ↑  ↑ P SRAS W W  W   ε εε ε   IS* AD   LRAS LM*(P ! ) P ! SRAS X < W  N   7 CHAPTER 12 CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand in the Open Economy Aggregate Demand in the Open Economy slide 36 Ln: Ln: gia nh và óng gia nh và óng  5: k <'iF k " Q%1EŠM">  G:"A' /)1E‰!">  ‹SR(),G# c 805G1EN ∆ ∆∆ ∆  \] ↓   ↑  Ch^ D c 805G  N ∆ ∆∆ ∆  \] ↓ ε εε ε  ↑  Ch^ D CHAPTER 12 CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand in the Open Economy Aggregate Demand in the Open Economy slide 37 Tóm tt chng Tóm tt chng W>   G>    ",5:  E;O,'/V(/!"U(0/1G 5"1-Q!"./01/ X> @V(/"/  E%51-Q,1G. /013N5E%5, 1G./%2> CHAPTER 12 CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand in the Open Economy Aggregate Demand in the Open Economy slide 38 Tóm tt chng Tóm tt chng ‚> @V(/#  E%51-Q5:1G./ %2>  _5:1G./013NV(/# E%51(%5I> ~> )#*(+  i=/"1757GK 5,&,x"(%&'G 5:>  )'Z&'Q75,&,"" Z*(+,5:!" ,'()+/ &'1iG#> CHAPTER 12 CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand in the Open Economy Aggregate Demand in the Open Economy slide 39 Tóm tt chng Tóm tt chng ‡> P./013!"./%2  P,1G./013NV(/# E;15I(uf/f1V/ "!#,()213&'./0 1/>  P./01/013"%V<+2 ,/'3$0> . (199 6-9 7) -2 5,6% -4 8,3% Thailand -6 ,8 %-4 3,8 %-3 6,4%Malaysia -4 ,3 %-1 8,2 %-1 2,0%Japan -0 ,1 %-3 6,0 %-1 5,6%Singapore 19,7 %-1 4,6%Taiwan 2,3%2,7% U.S. -7 ,3 %-2 1,9 %-4 7,5%S. Korea -1 6,2 %-3 2,6 %-5 9,4% Indonesia % thay i GDP danh ngha 199 7-9 8 %. W}}‡NS1*<x17Qf =J('&%> CHAPTER 12 CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand in the Open Economy Aggregate Demand in the Open Economy slide 31 Khng hong ông Nam Á Khng hong ông Nam Á -1 ,2% (199 6-9 7) -2 5,6% -4 8,3% Thailand -6 ,8 %-4 3,8 %-3 6,4%Malaysia -4 ,3 %-1 8,2 %-1 2,0%Japan -0 ,1 %-3 6,0 %-1 5,6%Singapore .   = CHAPTER 12 CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand in the Open Economy Aggregate Demand in the Open Economy slide 5 Cân bng trong mô hình Cân bng trong mô hình Mundell Mundell - - Fleming Fleming   B C