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World Economic Outlook, September 2011 World Economic Outlook Slowing Growth, Rising Risks World Economic Outlook Slowing Growth, Rising Risks World Economic and Financial Surveys INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 11 SEP IMF SEP 11 WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK September 2011 Slowing Growth, Rising Risks International Monetary Fund W o r l d E c o n o m i c a n d F i n a n c i a l S u r v e y s ©2011 International Monetary Fund Cover and Design: Luisa Menjivar and Jorge Salazar Composition: Maryland Composition Cataloging-in-Publication Data World economic outlook (International Monetary Fund) World economic outlook : a survey by the staff of the International Monetary Fund. — Washington, DC : International Monetary Fund, 1980– v. ; 28 cm. — (1981–1984: Occasional paper / International Monetary Fund, 0251-6365). — (1986– : World economic and financial surveys, 0256-6877) Semiannual. Some issues also have thematic titles. Has occasional updates, 1984– 1. Economic development — Periodicals. 2. Economic forecasting — Periodicals. 3. Economic policy — Periodicals. 4. International economic relations — Periodicals. I. International Monetary Fund. II. Series: Occasional paper (International Monetary Fund). III. Series: World economic and financial surveys. HC10.80 ISBN 978-1-61635-119-9 Please send orders to: International Monetary Fund, Publication Services P.O. Box 92780, Washington, D.C. 20090, U.S.A. Tel.: (202) 623-7430 Fax: (202) 623-7201 E-mail: publications@imf.org www.imfbookstore.org International Monetary Fund | September 2011 iii Assumptions and Conventions ix Further Information and Data x Preface xi Foreword xiii Executive Summary xv Chapter 1. Global Prospects and Policies 1 Slowing Global Activity 1 Renewed Financial Instability 1 More Uneven Expansion 3 Economic Slack alongside Signs of Overheating 9 Risks Are Clearly to the Downside 11 Policy Challenges 19 National Perspectives on Policy Challenges 19 Multilateral Perspectives on Policy Challenges 27 Appendix 1.1. Commodity Market Developments and Prospects 32 References 66 Chapter 2. Country and Regional Perspectives 71 e United States: Weakening Again amid Daunting Debt Challenges 72 Europe: Enduring Economic and Financial Turbulence 76 Commonwealth of Independent States: Moderate Growth Performance 80 Asia: Securing a More Balanced Expansion 84 Latin America and the Caribbean: Moving toward More Sustainable Growth 88 Sub-Saharan Africa: Sustaining the Expansion 92 Middle East and North Africa: Growth Stalling amid Uncertainty 96 References 99 Chapter 3. Target What You Can Hit: Commodity Price Swings and Monetary Policy 101 Commodity Price Swings and Ination 104 Monetary Policy and Food Price Shocks: A Simulation-Based Perspective 110 Policy Implications for Responding to Commodity Price Shocks 118 Appendix 3.1. Economies in the Data Set 122 Appendix 3.2. Technical Appendix 122 References 132 CONTENTS WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: SLOWING GROWTH, RISING RISKS iv International Monetary Fund | September 2011 Chapter 4. Separated at Birth? The Twin Budget and Trade Balances 135 Estimating the Strength of the Twin Decits Link 137 Insights from Model-Based Simulations 145 Summary and Implications for the Outlook 151 Appendix 4.1 Data Construction and Sources 152 Appendix 4.2 Statistical Methodology, Robustness Checks, and Selected Additional Results on Export and Import Responses 153 Appendix 4.3 Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal Model (GIMF) 156 References 159 Annex: IMF Executive Board Discussion of the Outlook, August 2011 161 Statistical Appendix 163 Assumptions 163 What’s New 164 Data and Conventions 164 Classication of Countries 165 General Features and Composition of Groups in the World Economic Outlook Classication 165 Table A. Classication by World Economic Outlook Groups and eir Shares in Aggregate GDP, Exports of Goods and Services, and Population, 2010 167 Table B. Advanced Economies by Subgroup 168 Table C. European Union 168 Table D. Emerging and Developing Economies by Region and Main Source of Export Earnings 169 Table E. Emerging and Developing Economies by Region, Net External Position, and Status as Heavily Indebted Poor Countries 170 Box A1. Economic Policy Assumptions Underlying the Projections for Selected Economies 172 List of Tables 177 Output (Tables A1–A4) 178 Ination (Tables A5–A7) 186 Financial Policies (Table A8) 192 Foreign Trade (Table A9) 193 Current Account Transactions (Tables A10–A12) 195 Balance of Payments and External Financing (Tables A13–A15) 202 Flow of Funds (Table A16) 206 Medium-Term Baseline Scenario (Table A17) 210 World Economic Outlook, Selected Topics 211 Boxes Box 1.1. Slow Recovery to Nowhere? A Sectoral View of Labor Markets in Advanced Economies 41 Box 1.2. Credit Boom-Bust Cycles: eir Triggers and Policy Implications 47 Box 1.3. Are Equity Price Drops Harbingers of Recession? 51 Box 1.4. Financial Investment, Speculation, and Commodity Prices 56 Box 1.5. External Liabilities and Crisis Tipping Points 61 Box 3.1. Ination in Sub-Saharan Africa during the 2008 Commodity Price Surge 125 Box 3.2. Food Price Swings and Monetary Policy in Open Economies 130 Box A1. Economic Policy Assumptions Underlying the Projections for Selected Economies 172 CONTENTS International Monetary Fund | September 2011 v CONTENTS Tables Table 1.1. Overview of the World Economic Outlook Projections 2 Table 1.2. Global Oil Demand and Production by Region 35 Table 1.2.1. What Triggers Credit Booms? 49 Table 1.3.1. Summary Statistics for Real Equity Price Growth 51 Table 1.3.2. Predicting New Recessions with Financial Market Variables 53 Table 1.5.1. Probit Estimates of Crisis Probability 63 Table 1.5.2. Model’s Predictive Power 64 Table 2.1. Selected Advanced Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, Current Account Balance, and Unemployment 75 Table 2.2. Selected European Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, Current Account Balance, and Unemployment 78 Table 2.3. Commonwealth of Independent States: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, Current Account Balance, and Unemployment 83 Table 2.4. Selected Asian Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, Current Account Balance, and Unemployment 85 Table 2.5. Selected Western Hemisphere Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, Current Account Balance, and Unemployment 91 Table 2.6. Selected Sub-Saharan African Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, Current Account Balance, and Unemployment 95 Table 2.7. Selected Middle East and North African Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, Current Account Balance, and Unemployment 99 Table 3.1. Gasoline Pass-through from Oil Prices 107 Table 3.2. Flour and Bread Pass-through from Wheat Prices 107 Table 3.1.1. Variations in Ination: Sub-Saharan Africa 127 Table 3.1.2. Food Ination Dynamics 128 Table 3.1.3. Ination Dynamics 129 Table 3.1.4. Macroeconomics Environment: Sub-Saharan Africa 129 Table 4.1. Data Sources 152 Table A1. Summary of World Output 178 Table A2. Advanced Economies: Real GDP and Total Domestic Demand 179 Table A3. Advanced Economies: Components of Real GDP 180 Table A4. Emerging and Developing Economies by Country: Real GDP 182 Table A5. Summary of Ination 186 Table A6. Advanced Economies: Consumer Prices 187 Table A7. Emerging and Developing Economies: Consumer Prices 188 Table A8. Major Advanced Economies: General Government Fiscal Balances and Debt 192 Table A9. Summary of World Trade Volumes and Prices 193 Table A10. Summary of Balances on Current Account 195 Table A11. Advanced Economies: Balance on Current Account 197 Table A12. Emerging and Developing Economies: Balance on Current Account 198 Table A13. Emerging and Developing Economies: Net Financial Flows 202 Table A14. Emerging and Developing Economies: Private Financial Flows 203 Table A15. Emerging and Developing Economies: Reserves 204 Table A16. Summary of Sources and Uses of World Savings 206 Table A17. Summary of Word Medium-Term Baseline Scenario 210 WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: SLOWING GROWTH, RISING RISKS vi International Monetary Fund | September 2011 Online Tables Table B1. Advanced Economies: Unemployment, Employment, and Real per Capita GDP Table B2. Emerging and Developing Economies: Real GDP Table B3. Advanced Economies: Hourly Earnings, Productivity, and Unit Labor Costs in Manufacturing Table B4. Emerging and Developing Economies: Consumer Prices Table B5. Summary of Financial Indicators Table B6. Advanced Economies: General and Central Government Net Lending/Borrowing and Excluding Social Security Schemes Table B7. Advanced Economies: General Government Structural Balances Table B8. Advanced Economies: Exchange Rates Table B9. Emerging and Developing Economies: General Government Net Lending/Borrowing and Overall Fiscal Balance Table B10. Emerging and Developing Economies: Broad Money Aggregates Table B11. Advanced Economies: Export Volumes, Import Volumes, and Terms of Trade in Goods and Services Table B12. Emerging and Developing Economies by Region: Total Trade in Goods Table B13. Emerging and Developing Economies by Source of Export Earnings: Total Trade in Goods Table B14. Advanced Economies: Current Account Transactions Table B15. Emerging and Developing Economies: Balances on Current Account Table B16. Emerging and Developing Economies by Region: Current Account Transactions Table B17. Emerging and Developing Economies by Analytical Criteria: Current Account Transactions Table B18. Summary of Balance of Payments, Financial Flows, and External Financing Table B19. Emerging and Developing Economies by Region: Balance of Payments and External Financing Table B20. Emerging and Developing Economies by Analytical Criteria: Balance of Payments and External Financing Table B21. Summary of External Debt and Debt Service Table B22. Emerging and Developing Economies by Region: External Debt by Maturity and Type of Creditor Table B23. Emerging and Developing Economies by Analytical Criteria: External Debt, by Maturity and Type of Creditor Table B24. Emerging and Developing Economies: Ratio of External Debt to GDP Table B25. Emerging and Developing Economies: Debt-Service Ratios Table B26. Emerging and Developing Economies, Medium-Term Baseline Scenario: Selected Economic Indicators Figures Figure 1.1. Global Indicators 3 Figure 1.2. Financial Strains in Europe and the United States 4 Figure 1.3. Recent Financial Market Developments 5 Figure 1.4. Prospects for Near-Term Activity 6 Figure 1.5. Global Outlook 7 Figure 1.6. Current and Forward-Looking Growth Indicators 8 Figure 1.7. Balance Sheets and Saving Rates 9 CONTENTS International Monetary Fund | September 2011 vii CONTENTS Figure 1.8. Emerging Market Conditions 10 Figure 1.9. Emerging Market Economies with Strong Credit Expansion 11 Figure 1.10. Measures of Monetary Policy and Liquidity in Selected Advanced and Emerging Market Economies 12 Figure 1.11. General Government Fiscal Balances and Public Debt 13 Figure 1.12. Cyclical Conditions 14 Figure 1.13. Global Projection Model Estimates of the Output Gap 15 Figure 1.14. Global Ination 16 Figure 1.15. Risks to the Global Outlook 17 Figure 1.16. WEO Downside Scenario 18 Figure 1.17. Overheating Indicators for the G20 Economies 22 Figure 1.18. Policy Requirements in Emerging Market Economies 23 Figure 1.19. External Developments 24 Figure 1.20. Global Imbalances 25 Figure 1.21. Employment and Unemployment 26 Figure 1.22. Drivers of Global Growth and Rebalancing 29 Figure 1.23. Commodity Prices 33 Figure 1.24. World Energy Market Developments 34 Figure 1.25. Developments in Base Metal Markets 38 Figure 1.26. Recent Developments in Markets for Major Food Crops 39 Figure 1.1.1. Trends in Employment and Labor Productivity 42 Figure 1.1.2. Sectoral Trends May Aect Potential Output Growth 44 Figure 1.1.3. Employment, Prots, and Intermediate Goods Trade in the United States 45 Figure 1.2.1. Credit Booms 47 Figure 1.3.1. Predicted Probability of a New Recession in a Quarter 54 Figure 1.4.1. Commodity Market Financialization 57 Figure 1.4.2. Commodity Price Volatility, 1990–2011 57 Figure 1.4.3. Commodity Futures Risk Premiums 59 Figure 1.5.1. Net Foreign Asset Indicators in the Run-up to External Crises 61 Figure 1.5.2. Model Estimate of Crisis Probabilities 64 Figure 2.1. Current Global Growth versus Precrisis Average 71 Figure 2.2. Output Gaps and Ination 72 Figure 2.3. United States and Canada: Current Growth versus Precrisis Average 73 Figure 2.4. United States: Struggling to Gain a Foothold 74 Figure 2.5. Europe: Current Growth versus Precrisis Average 77 Figure 2.6. Europe: An Uneven Performance and Elevated Risks 79 Figure 2.7. Commonwealth of Independent States: Current Growth versus Precrisis Average 81 Figure 2.8. Commonwealth of Independent States: A Gradual Recovery 82 Figure 2.9. Asia: Current Growth versus Precrisis Average 84 Figure 2.10. Asia: A Bright Spot in the World Economy 86 Figure 2.11. Latin America and the Caribbean: Current Growth versus Precrisis Average 89 Figure 2.12. Latin America: Maintaining the Growth Momentum 90 Figure 2.13. Sub-Saharan Africa: Current Growth versus Precrisis Average 93 Figure 2.14. Sub-Saharan Africa: Continued Strength 94 Figure 2.15. Middle East and North Africa: Current Growth versus Precrisis Average 97 Figure 2.16. Middle East and North Africa: Weakening Activity in an Uncertain Environment 98 Figure 3.1. World Commodity Prices, 2000–11 102 WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: SLOWING GROWTH, RISING RISKS viii International Monetary Fund | September 2011 Figure 3.2. World Commodity Prices, 1957–2011 104 Figure 3.3. Food Price Forecasts 105 Figure 3.4. Pass-through from World Ination to Domestic Ination 106 Figure 3.5. Variability of Real Domestic Prices 108 Figure 3.6. Share of Food in the Consumption Basket 109 Figure 3.7. Contribution of Food and Transportation to Headline Ination 110 Figure 3.8. Response of Ination Expectations to Ination Surprises 111 Figure 3.9. Pass-through from International to Domestic Food Price Ination 112 Figure 3.10. Response to a Food Price Shock in a Stylized Emerging and Developing Economy 115 Figure 3.11. Ination-Output Policy Frontier 116 Figure 3.12. Response to a Food Price Shock in a Stylized High-Credibility Emerging and Developing Economy 117 Figure 3.13. Response to a Food Price Shock in a Stylized Advanced Economy 118 Figure 3.14. One-Time versus Persistent Food Price Shocks 119 Figure 3.15. Response to a Food Price Shock amid Current Cyclical Conditions 120 Figure 3.1.1. Income and Food Share in Sub-Saharan Africa 125 Figure 3.1.2. Changes in Ination in Sub-Saharan Africa, 2007–08 126 Figure 3.1.3. Rice Price, Madagascar 127 Figure 3.2.1. Net Commodity Exporters, 2000–10 130 Figure 3.2.2. Net Commodity Importers, 2000–10 131 Figure 4.1. Incidence of Action-Based Fiscal Policy Changes by Year 139 Figure 4.2. Eects on the Current Account of a 1 Percent of GDP Fiscal Consolidation 141 Figure 4.3. Eects on Economic Activity of a 1 Percent of GDP Fiscal Consolidation 142 Figure 4.4. Eects on Saving and Investment of a 1 Percent of GDP Fiscal Consolidation 143 Figure 4.5. Eects on the Composition of Saving and Investment of a 1 Percent of GDP Fiscal Consolidation 144 Figure 4.6. Eects on Export and Import Volumes of a 1 Percent of GDP Fiscal Consolidation 145 Figure 4.7. Eects on Exchange Rates, Prices, and Interest Rates of a 1 Percent of GDP Fiscal Consolidation 146 Figure 4.8. Eects of a 1 Percent of GDP Fiscal Consolidation under Pegged and Nonpegged Exchange Rate Regimes 147 Figure 4.9. Eects of a 1 Percent of GDP Fiscal Consolidation under Constrained Monetary Policy: GIMF Simulations 148 Figure 4.10. Eects of a Synchronized Global 1 Percent of GDP Fiscal Consolidation: GIMF Simulations 149 Figure 4.11. Planned Fiscal Adjustment and the Current Account Impact: GIMF Simulations 150 Figure 4.12. Robustness: Eects on the Current Account of a 1 Percent of GDP Fiscal Consolidation 155 Figure 4.13. Eects on the Current Account of a 1 Percent of GDP Fiscal Policy Change 156 Figure 4.14. Fiscal Instruments and eir Eects on the Current Account 158 International Monetary Fund | September 2011 ix A number of assumptions have been adopted for the projections presented in the World Economic Outlook. It has been assumed that real eective exchange rates remained constant at their average levels during July 18–August 15, 2011, except for the currencies participating in the European exchange rate mechanism II (ERM II), which are assumed to have remained constant in nominal terms relative to the euro; that established policies of national authori- ties will be maintained (for specic assumptions about scal and monetary policies for selected economies, see Box A1 in the Statistical Appendix); that the average price of oil will be $103.20 a barrel in 2011 and $100.00 a barrel in 2012 and will remain unchanged in real terms over the medium term; that the six-month London interbank oered rate (LIBOR) on U.S. dollar deposits will average 0.4 percent in 2011 and 0.5 percent in 2012; that the three-month euro deposit rate will average 1.3 percent in 2011 and 1.2 percent in 2012; and that the six-month Japanese yen deposit rate will yield on average 0.5 percent in 2011 and 0.3 percent in 2012. ese are, of course, working hypoth- eses rather than forecasts, and the uncertainties surrounding them add to the margin of error that would in any event be involved in the projections. e estimates and projections are based on statistical information available through early September 2011. e following conventions are used throughout the World Economic Outlook: . . . to indicate that data are not available or not applicable; – between years or months (for example, 2010–11 or January–June) to indicate the years or months covered, including the beginning and ending years or months; / between years or months (for example, 2010/11) to indicate a scal or nancial year. “Billion” means a thousand million; “trillion” means a thousand billion. “Basis points” refer to hundredths of 1 percentage point (for example, 25 basis points are equivalent to ¼ of 1 percentage point). Data for Estonia are now included in the aggregates for the euro area and advanced economies. As in the April 2011 World Economic Outlook, WEO aggregated data exclude Libya for the projection years due to the uncertain political situation. Starting with the September 2011 World Economic Outlook, Guyana and Suriname are classied as members of the South America region and Belize as a member of the Central America region. Previously, they were members of the Caribbean region. For Sudan, the projections for 2011 and later exclude South Sudan. In gures and tables, shaded areas indicate IMF sta projections. If no source is listed on tables and gures, data are drawn from the WEO database. When countries are not listed alphabetically, they are ordered on the basis of economic size. Minor discrepancies between sums of constituent gures and totals shown reect rounding. As used in this report, the terms “country” and “economy” do not in all cases refer to a territorial entity that is a state as understood by international law and practice. As used here, the term also covers some territorial entities that are not states but for which statistical data are maintained on a separate and independent basis. Composite data are provided for various groups of countries organized according to economic characteris- tics or region. Unless otherwise noted, country group composites represent calculations based on 90 percent or more of the weighted group data. e boundaries, colors, denominations, and any other information shown on the maps do not imply, on the part of the International Monetary Fund, any judgment on the legal status of any territory or any endorse- ment or acceptance of such boundaries. ASSUMPTIONS AND CONVENTIONS [...]... During the second quarter of 2011, oil prices briefly rose more than 25 percent above the levels that prevailed in January 2011 It is hard to determine the extent to which prices were driven up by 1See Macroeconomic Advisers (2011) Based on manufacturers’ announced plans, they argue that rising car assembly could add 1¼ percentage points to GDP in the third quarter 2See IMF (2011) stronger demand or by... points) July 21, Austria Greece 2011 Belgium Ireland France Portugal Italy Netherlands Spain July 21, 2011 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 400 300 200 May 10, 2010 3000 500 100 2000 1000 0 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jul 10 Sep 11 108 MSCI Daily Change Differences (Jan 1, 2010 = 100) 104 Euro total– 100 World total 96 Jan 10 May 10, 2010 Jan Jul 11 10 120 100 July 21, 2011 80 60 Euro 88 40 July 21, 2011 Euro financial– World... which were at the epicenter of the crisis 2 110 Change in GDP (2011: Q2 GDP in percent of 2008:Q2 GDP) 105 Change in GDP 3 (2011: Q2 GDP in percent of 2008:Q2 GDP) 140 Real GDP in 2011 in Percent of Precrisis Trends 4 150 Real GDP in 2016 in percent of precrisis trend 130 140 130 120 95 24 110 100 100 OAAE EAS LA CEE MENA SSA and CIS Output Gap in 2011 (percent of potential GDP) 90 World AE EM CEE CIS DA... confidence interval 70 percent confidence interval 90 percent confidence interval 90 percent confidence interval from April 2011 WEO 09 2008 10 3 2 1 0 -1 12 11 Balance of Risks Associated with Selected Risk Factors 2 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2 Balance of risks for 2011 (April 2011 WEO) 2011 (current WEO) 2012 (current WEO) New shocks could undercut the expansion A downside scenario shows the repercussions... Offered Rate (percent)6 On U.S Dollar Deposits On Euro Deposits On Japanese Yen Deposits Estimates 2010 Q4 over Q4 Projections 2011 2012 Projections 2011 2012 Note: Real effective exchange rates are assumed to remain constant at the levels prevailing during July 18–August 15, 2011 When economies are not listed alphabetically, they are ordered on the basis of economic size The aggregated quarterly data... Milesi-Ferretti, 2011, “(Why) Should Current Account Balances Be Reduced?” IMF Staff Discussion Note No 11/03 (Washington: International Monetary Fund); and Lane, Philip, and Gian Maria MilesiFerretti, 2011, “External Adjustment and the Global Crisis,” IMF Working Paper No 11/197 (Washington: International Monetary Fund), for further discussion of this challenge xvi International Monetary Fund | September 2011. .. adjustment: policy tightened further in the first half of 2011, and the pace of consolidation is now estimated to be appreciably above earlier estimates In particular, the structural fiscal balance of the United States is now expected to improve by about ½ percent of GDP in 2011, implying a 1 percentage point of GDP fiscal withdrawal relative to the April 2011 WEO projection Fiscal policy will tighten further... 2½ percent in 2011 but then to recede to close to 1½ percent in 2012, assuming that energy and food prices evolve as the markets expect In emerging and developing economies, headline inflation is expected to settle at about 6 percent in 2012, down from over 7½ percent in 2011, as energy and food prices stabilize but demand pressures raise core inflation Inflation is expected to stay high through 2011 12... interbank offered forward rates for Europe; updated September 7, 2011 4Dashed lines are from the April 2011 World Economic Outlook 5Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru 6Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland, Romania, and Russia 7China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand 12 International Monetary Fund | September 2011 The risks concerning weak sovereigns and their interaction... and added to financial strains, feeding back into the real economy The September 2011 Global Financial Stability Report observes that renewed doubts about the prospects for addressing the problems in the euro area resurfaced in spring 2011 and have since deepened, notwithstanding the strong measures agreed at the July 21, 2011, EU summit It is worrisome that investors have significantly pushed up sovereign . FUND 11 SEP IMF SEP 11 WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK September 2011 Slowing Growth, Rising Risks International Monetary Fund W o r l d E c o n o m i c a n d F i n a n c i a l S u r v e y s 2011 International Monetary Fund . SLOWING GROWTH, RISING RISKS viii International Monetary Fund | September 2011 Figure 3.2. World Commodity Prices, 1957 2011 104 Figure 3.3. Food Price Forecasts 105 Figure 3.4. Pass-through from. U.S. dollar deposits will average 0.4 percent in 2011 and 0.5 percent in 2012; that the three-month euro deposit rate will average 1.3 percent in 2011 and 1.2 percent in 2012; and that the six-month