Khóa luận tốt nghiệp: Analysis on the impacts of the regional domprehensive economic partnership (rcep) on Vietnam's rice export

To complete my thesis topic: "Research on the impact of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership RCEP on Vietnam's rice exports", I received a lot of help from my lecturers and in

BACHELOR THESIS

ANALYSIS ON THE IMPACTS OF THE REGIONAL

COMPREHENSIVE ECONOMIC PARTNERSHIP (RCEP) ON

VIETNAM'S RICE EXPORT

SUPERVISOR: PH.D LA THI THAM

STUDENT NAME: NGUYEN THI HAI BINH

CLASS: QH-2020-E KINH TE CLC 2

PROGRAM: CLC

Ha Noi - 2023

BACHELOR THESIS

ANALYSIS ON THE IMPACTS OF THE REGIONAL

COMPREHENSIVE ECONOMIC PARTNERSHIP (RCEP) ON

VIETNAM'S RICE EXPORT

SUPERVISOR PH.D LA THI THAM

STUDENT NAME: NGUYEN THI HAI BINH

CLASS: QH-2020-E KINH TE CLC 2

PROGRAM: CLC

Ha Noi — 2023

research works The secondary information used in this research article has clear,specific origins and is cited properly and does not violate copyright, ensuring theintegrity of previous research articles If there is any mistake, I will take fullresponsibility and discipline from the faculty and school.

Student

Binh Nguyen Thi Hai Binh

To complete my thesis topic: "Research on the impact of the Regional

Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) on Vietnam's rice exports", I received

a lot of help from my lecturers and individuals and groups to complete this thesis

I would like to send my deepest and most sincere thanks to PH.D La Thi Thamfor helping me enthusiastically, responsibly and encouraging me to successfully

complete this thesis.

Although we tried very hard to complete it, the thesis could not avoidshortcomings and limitations I hope to receive contributions from my lecturers and

friends to make my thesis more complete.

Student

Binh Nguyen Thi Hai Binh

TABLE OF CONTENTS

LIST OF TABLES AND FIGURES

INTRODUCTION

1 Rationale of the Study

2 Aims of the study

2.1 General objectives

2.2 Specific objectives

3 Object and scope of study

4 Research methodology

4.1 Data collection methods

4.2 Data synthesis and analysis methods

5 Significance of the topic

5.1 Scientific significance

5.2 Practical significance

6 Structure of the thesis

CHAPTER 1: THEORETICAL AND PRACTICAL BASIS OF EXPORT ACTIVITIES AND RCEP

1.1 Overview of research literature

1.3 Factors affecting rice export activities

1.3.1 Group of factors affecting production

1.3.2 Group of factors affecting export

1.4 Criteria for assessing the current status of rice export activities

1.4.1 Criteria for assessing the current status of rice export

1.4.2 Criteria for assessing the impact of RCEP on rice exports

1.4.2.1 Group of evaluation criteria associated with RCEP

1.4.2.2 Group of general evaluation criteria

1.5 Overview of RCEP and regulations for rice

1.5.1 RCEP overview

1.5.2 RCEP regulations for rice

1.6 The role of boosting rice exports in the context of RCEP

1.7 Practical experiences on rice exports and lessons learned for Vietnam 251.7.1 Experience from Thailand

1.7.2 Experience from India

1.7.3 Lessons learned for Vietnam

2.1.2 Item structure.

2.1.3 Market structure

2.1.4 Competitiveness

2.2 Factors affecting Vietnam's rice exports to RCEP countries.

2.2.1 Group of factors affecting production

2.2.2 Group of factors affecting exports

2.3 Positive and negative impacts of RCEP on Vietnam's rice exports in the period

2019-2022

2.3.1 Positive impact

2.3.2 Negative effects

2.5.2 Limitations and causes

CHAPTER 3: SOLUTIONS TO BOOST VIETNAM'S RICE EXPORTS TO RCEP

MARKET

3.1 Objectives and orientations for exporting Vietnamese rice

3.1.1 Objectives

3.1.2 Development orientation of export markets

3.2 Solutions to boost Vietnam's rice exports to RCEP market

3.2.1 Improve the quality of rice products

3.2.2 Building and developing Vietnam's export rice brand

3.2.3 Develop a rice export strategy

3.2.4 Improving the ability to respond to policies of RCEP markets

LIST OF TABLES AND FIGURESFigure 2.1 Vietnam rice exports from 2018 — 2022

Figure 2.2 Vietnam rice exports in 2022

Table 2.1: Exported rice categories of Vietnam, 2018 - 2019

Figure 2.3 Structure of rice exports in the period of 2017 - 2020

Figure 2.4 Proportion of Vietnam's rice exports to China

Figure 2.5 Structure of Vietnam's rice export market in 2019

Figure 2.6 Structure of Vietnam's rice export market, 2021 — 2022

Figure 2.7 Vietnam's average export rice price

Figure 2.8 Some of the world's largest rice exporters in 2020 — 2022

Table 2.2 GDP of RCEP countries

Table 2.3 Vietnam's rice exports to RCEP countries in 2022

Figure 2.9 Vietnam's tariff reduction rates and roadmap for RCEP partners 57

provide the foreign currency revenues needed for the development and improvement

of people's lives, but also contribute positively to creating job opportunities, improving the quality of industry and services in the country, and creating growth for

Vietnamese businesses and industries Moreover, by participating in international

markets, Vietnam has access to international technology, knowledge, and standards,

thereby encouraging innovation and enhancing the competitiveness of Vietnameseindustries and products on the world stage Exports are a strong driving force forVietnam's economic development and increase its international status

The process of industrialization, modernization and international economic integration in Vietnam is taking place in agricultural conditions that still account for

a high proportion of GDP Rice production in our country in recent years has achieved

great achievements, making positive contributions in the early period of

industrialization and modernization of the country Rice not only serves theconsumption needs of domestic people, but also spends a large part for export Riceexport activities have made an important contribution to promoting agriculturalproduction and rural economy, contributing to poverty alleviation, improving the

lives of a part of the population, increasing social purchasing power In addition, rice

exports also reduce the trade deficit, ensure national food security and bring in a largesource of foreign exchange income, contributing to the development of the country

The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is a free trade

agreement (FTA) between 10 ASEAN countries and 5 partners: China, South Korea,

Japan, Australia and New Zealand The agreement accounts for about 30% of globalgross domestic product, making it the largest trading bloc in history For Vietnam,

the Agreement officially takes effect from the beginning of 2022 Taking effect on

January 1, 2022, the RCEP agreement creates the world's largest free trade area and

such as China, Japan, South Korea and Indonesia, helping manufacturers in Vietnam

reduce costs and access supply chains throughout the Asia-Pacific region However,the agreement also poses challenges for Vietnam as it faces more competition, both

domestically and in export markets For exports, RCEP will increase competition

from Southeast Asian countries, some of which may be strong in products similar to

Vietnam, especially in labor-intensive industries On the other hand, cheap Chinese

products will also be able to reach the Vietnamese market more easily, and this willbecome a challenge for domestic businesses

With the desire to review Vietnam's rice export situation after signing theRCEP agreement, thereby finding solutions to limit negative impacts and takeadvantage of positive impacts to improve Vietnam's rice export activities, the authordecided to choose the topic "Study on the impact of the Regional Comprehensive

Economic Partnership (RCEP) on exports rice of Vietnam" as a research topic.

2 Aims of the study

2.1 General objectives

The general objective of this study is to analyze the impact of RCEP (negative,

positive) on Vietnam's rice exports in the period of 2019-2022, thereby proposing

solutions to boost Vietnam's rice exports

2.2 Specific objectives

- To synthesize the theoretical and practical basis of export activities and RCEP

- To assess the impacts of RCEP on Vietnam's rice exports in the period 2019-2022

- To propose solutions to boost Vietnam's rice exports to RCEP market in the comingyears.

period 2019-2022.

Scope of research:

+ Time scope: Secondary data of the study was collected from 15/09/2023 to

30/9/2023 to reflect an overview of the impact of RCEP on Vietnam's rice exports,

especially in the period of 2019-2022

* Spatial extent: Vietnam and other RCEP countries import Vietnamese rice

4 Research methodology

4.1 Data collection methods

The author collected seconday data mostly from well-known organizations in theworld and in Vietnam For example, data on GDP, export turnover and imports ofgoods were collected from The World Bank (WB), the United Nations CommodityStatistical Database (UN Comtrade); while data on the proportion of Vietnam's riceexports and imports in market areas were collected from the General Statistics Office

and the General Department of Customs etc In addition, information on trade barriers

of RCEF countries and the region, Vietnam's export and import policies, trade

agreements etc were gathered by looking up documents, texts, books and previous

studies

4.2 Data synthesis and analysis methods

On the basis of the collected data, comparisons and checks between different sourceswere conducted to ensure the accuracy of the data before using it for calculation Datachecking was also helpful to detect shortcomings and discrepancies in the collectionprocess to make timely adjustments As a result, the most possible complete andaccurate data set was formed, ensuring the future analysis accuracy

situation, compare the growth rate and competitiveness of rice exports of Vietnam

and other countries during periods

5 Significance of the topic

5.1 Scientific significance

The study fully and thoroughly systematizes the theoretical basis of export and RCEP

activities in the rice export industry

The research results add knowledge and reasoning to reference data sources on exportactivities, RCEP in general and the impact of RCEP on the rice export industry in

particular The results are objective, highly topical, based on a solid theoretical and

practical basis It provides a basis for studying the impact of trade agreements onmany other aspects in the future

5.2 Practical significance

The study assesses the impact of RCEP on Vietnam's rice exports in the period of

2019-2022 It clarifies (1) the current situation of Vietnam's rice export activities inthe period of 2019 — 2022, (2) factors affecting Vietnam's rice exports to RCEPcountries, (3) positive impacts of RCEP on Vietnam's rice exports, (4) negativeimpacts of RCEP on Vietnam's rice exports, (5) assess achievements, limitations and

causes of Vietnam's rice exports to RCEP markets.

This study proves useful in understanding the positive and negative impacts of RCEP

on Vietnam's rice exports, thereby ensuring the optimization of benefits and minimize

negative consequences, improving people's lives and incomes, as well as formulating

sound economic and trade policies to take opportunities raised by RCEP.

Chapter 1: Theoretical and practical basis of export activities and RCEP

Chapter 2: Current status of RCEP impacts on Vietnam's rice exports

Chapter 3: Solutions to boost Vietnam's rice exports to RCEP market

1.1.1 Foreign studies

Yachao Zhang, Zhi Li, Jialin Zhou (2022), "Estimating the Effects of the

RCEP and Its Impact on China's Supply Chain" explores the impact of RCEP onChina's economy and supply chains and offers suggestions to enhance the

competitiveness of Chinese multinationals in the context of the entry into force of the

RCEP agreement The author used the GTAP standard static model that hasmeasurable characteristics in analyzing different free trade policies and their impacts.This model uses Chinese production, consumption, and government as submodels,feeds into data and parameter variation, and finally simulates changes in China's

social welfare, GDP, imports, and exports after RCEP implementation The article

also explains how China participates in the global production chain That is whyChina has become a new-generation "workshop of the world" after the third

international industrial transition What Chinese businesses and their supply chains

seize opportunities, enhance competition, and respond to supply chain risk challenges

is also at the heart of this paper.

Yang, Zhenhua, Woo, Kwang-Myung (2022), "A Study on Impact of the

RCEP Agreement on the Industrial Trade between China, Korea and Japan" uses the

GTAP model and applies a recursive fractionation dynamic method for simulation

TMS parameters are established based on the RCEP Agreement between China,

Japan and South Korea After applying TMS values, parameters such as qxw, qiw,and qxs are selected to analyze the simulation results The study said that the

implementation of the terms of China-Japan-Korea trade cooperation under RCEP,

the scale of trade of China, Japan and South Korea has been promoted, but the impactlevels vary In order to develop long-term industrial trade between China, Japan andSouth Korea under the realization of RCEP, this study proposes suggestions such as

Comprehensive Economic Partnership on the Philippine Economy" used the globalgeneralized balance model to analyze the potential impacts of the Regional

Comprehensive Economic Agreement (RCEP) on the Philippine economy The study

mentions an 80% reduction in tariffs and 10% of non-tariff barriers over 10 yearsbetween RCEP member countries that create trade within RCEP Exports from RCEP

to non-member countries declined In RCEP, the improvement in exports of the sixnon-ASEAN members was higher than that of the Association of Southeast Asian

Nations (ASEAN) members Vietnam is the biggest beneficiary among ASEAN

members Exports by the rest of ASEAN also increased, including the Philippines.The import of cheaper rice into the Philippines benefits low-income households

The study by Shandre M Thangavelu et al (2022) "Potential Impact of RCEPand Structural Transformation on Cambodia" examines the potential impact of the

Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) on the Cambodian economy

in terms of trade, output growth, and employment It also provides quantitative

(estimation and simulation of structural gravity modeling) and qualitative trade policy

assessment of exports, output, and structural transformation of economies in globaland regional value chains The results highlight the importance of RCEP for the post-pandemic and post-pandemic recovery as well as the structural transformation of theCambodian economy The paper also provides important policy recommendations to

maximize the benefits of RCEP for Cambodia for inclusive and sustainable growth.

Haowen Yan's (2022) study, "The Impact of the Regional Comprehensive

Economic Partnership (RCEP) on Perceived Entry Strategies of New Zealand SMEs:

A Case Study of China, examines the impact of the Regional ComprehensiveEconomic Partnership (RCEP) on New Zealand's strategy to enter the Chinese market.This study explores the benefits and competitive advantages that SMEs in New

theoretical basis for influencing SMEs' choice of entry modality based on the

transaction cost economics (TCE) framework The study also highlights ongoingchallenges, such as concerns about environmental stability and lack of regulation

Despite these challenges, New Zealand companies can leverage RCEP policies to

receive support and protect their intellectual property and trademarks In addition, the

strong bilateral relationship between China and New Zealand can help SMEs

overcome challenges such as an unstable environment, complex regulatoryenvironment, and counterfeit products

1.1.2 National studies

Hoang Thi Hoai Huong (2021) conducted a study to assess the impact of the

Regional Comprehensive Economic Agreement (RCEP) on Vietnam's goods exports

The study uses the existing comparative advantage index (RCA) to provide an

overview of the advantages and competitiveness of each industry and the SMARTmodel to analyze in detail the potential impact of RCEP on Vietnam's exports The

results showed that there was a significant change in the comparative advantage of

commodity sectors, leading to a shift in the export structure of agricultural products,footwear and textiles; Products of the electronics industry are Vietnam's main exports

to RCEP market, thereby affirming the importance of the regional market to

Vietnam's trade

The article by Nguyen Tien Dung (2016) analyzed recent trends and changes

in trade relations between Vietnam and RCEP countries The results show rapid

growth in exports to RCEP markets, especially exports of agricultural products and

manufactured products Export growth was accompanied by a marked shift in theexport structure from fuels and raw materials to consumer goods and capital goods

The regional market plays an increasingly important role for Vietnam's exports of

Nguyen Tien Dung and Nguyen Cam Nhung (2018) conducted an analysis ofregional integration in East Asia and the formation of the Comprehensive Regional

Economic Partnership (RCEP) The study conducts an analysis of contents: (1)

Analysis of objectives, contents and some issues negotiated in the RCEP Agreement,(2) Study of the growth, structure, characteristics and structure of trade with RCEPpartner countries, (3) Assess the impact of the Comprehensive Regional EconomicAgreement RCEP on Vietnam's economy using the global balance of accountability

(CGE) model and gravity model, (4) Draw out some policy issues and policy

recommendations for Vietnam in the process of regional economic integration, (5)Analyze the process of regional integration in East Asia and the formation of the

Comprehensive Regional Economic Partnership (RCEP), (6) Analyze the objectives,

contents and some issues negotiated in the RCEP Agreement, (7) Study the growth,

structure, characteristics and structure of Vietnam's trade with RCEP partner

countries, (8) Assess the impact of the RCEP Comprehensive Regional EconomicAgreement on Vietnam's economy using the global equilibrium model ( CGE) and

gravity modeling From there, the study draws out a number of policy issues and

policy recommendations for Vietnam in the process of regional economic integration

Doan Mai Hoa, Dang Thu Hue, Dang Khanh Huyen, Nguyen Anh Tuan, Tran

Vu Minh (2022) conducted a study on the impact of RCEP on Vietnam's textile and

garment exports The main purpose of this project comes from analyzing the current

situation of textile and garment export activities in Vietnam before and after RCEPcomes into effect, thereby highlighting opportunities, challenges and proposingrecommendations for the government as well as domestic textile and garmentexporters to make the most of the advantages that RCEP brings

Nguyen Y Nhi, Nguyen Minh Thanh, Dang Tuan Dung, Do Khanh Linh,

Hoang Cam Nhung, Quach Phuong Linh (2022) Study on Vietnam's export of

computers and electronie components when implementing RCEP The study provides

an overview of RCEP, analyzes the situation of Vietnam's electronic and computer

components industry before and after RCEP implementation, then assesses thesuccess achieved and limitations of this export group, as well as makes

recommendations to Vietnamese government agencies and businesses to deal with

restrictions and take advantage of the opportunities that RCEP brings

Nguyen Khanh Linh, Le Thi Diem Quynh, Nguyen Bao Anh, Do Mai Hang,

Nguyen Minh Huyen (2022) conduct research on the impact of RCEP on Vietnam's

agricultural exports The paper focuses on the impacts of the Regional

Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) on Vietnam's agricultural exports.The implementation of RCEP is expected to expand markets for agricultural products

— one of the strengths of Vietnam's exports However, Vietnamese agricultural

products will also face many difficulties from export markets and competitors Based

on the study of export activities of Vietnam's four main agricultural products

including rice, vegetables, cashews and coffee, the opportunities and challenges forVietnamese agricultural exports when RCEP comes into effect will be clarified Fromthere, the author makes some proposals to increase the competitiveness ofVietnamese agricultural products in the export market

1.1.3 Research gaps

From the overview of the research documents synthesized above, it can beseen that the study on the impact of RCEP on a specific field and country has beenreceiving the attention of domestic and foreign scholars in recent years

In particular, studies on the impact of RCEP have shown an overallexploratory perspective on the benefits that RCEP brings to the field under study

From there, conclusions as well as a foundation for post-development studies are

made

In Vietnam, studies on the impact of RCEP mainly focus on Vietnam's exports

of goods such as textiles and garments, computers and electronic components,agricultural products etc.; recent trends and changes in trade relations between

‘Vietnam and RCEP countries, the formation of RCEP Agreement.

However, a detailed and comprehensive assessment of the impact of RCEP on

Vietnam's rice exports in the current period is still lacking Meanwhile, rice is one of

Vietnam's key exports, contributing an important part to the country's total exportvalue The rice export industry usually accounts for a large proportion of Vietnam'sexport structure and generates significant foreign exchange revenue, helping toreduce poverty, improve living standards and increase opportunities for Vietnamese

farmers, contributing to national economic development Besides, RCEP is one of the

largest international trade agreements in the world, uniting 15 Asian countries Thestudy on the impact of RCEP on Vietnam's rice exports will provide important

information on how international trade relations work in the current context.

Therefore, it is extremely necessary to study and assess the impact of RCEP on

Vietnam's rice exports and offer some proposed solutions.

1.2 Theoretical basis of export

1.2.1 Export concept

According to Vietnam's Trade Law 2019, goods export is that goods are taken

out of the territory of Vietnam or put into a special area located on the territory ofVietnam considering a separate customs area in accordance with the law

Accordingly, export activity is a process of earning profits by selling products or

services to foreign markets, markets other than the domestic market Therefore,understanding foreign markets is essential if you want a product or service topenetrate that market

According to Nguyen Duy Bot (2003), "Commodity export is that tangiblegoods products produced or processed at production, processing facilities and exportprocessing zones for the purpose of consumption in foreign markets (export) go

through customs" Accordingly, rice export is a commodity export, in which acountry sells rice to other countries for profit, using money as a means of payment.

1.2.2 The roles of exports

Firstly, exports create the main source of capital for imports for national

industrialization and modernization.

Industrializing the country in appropriate steps is the inevitable way toovercome the poverty and underdevelopment of our country In order to implementthe path of industrialization and modernization of the country, in the short term, wemust import a large number of modern machinery and equipment from outside, inorder to equip production Capital for imports usually relies on the main sources:borrowing, aid, foreign investment and exports Loans are eventually repaid, and

foreign aid and investment are limited, and these sources are often dependent on foreign countries Therefore, the most important source of capital for imports is

exports The fact is that whichever country increases its exports, its imports willaccordingly increase Conversely, if imports are greater than exports, the trade deficit

is too large, which can adversely affect the national economy

In the future, external capital will increase, but all opportunities for investment,borrowing from foreign countries and international organizations will only come

when investors and lenders see the possibility of exporting — the only source of loan

to repay debt into reality

Secondly, exports contribute to economic restructuring, promoting production

development

The structure of production and consumption in the world has been changingextremely drastically It is the result of the modern scientific and technologicalrevolution, the economic restructuring in the process of industrialization in line withthe development trend of the world economy is inevitable for our country

Exports create favorable conditions for other industries to have favorabledevelopment opportunities For example, when developing exports, it will create fullopportunities for the development of raw materials such as cotton and jute, etc The

development of the food processing industry (rice, coffee, etc.) may lead to industries

that manufacture equipment to serve it Exports also create the ability to expandconsumption markets, creating conditions for production to develop and stabilize

Thirdly, exports play an active role in innovating production equipment andtechnology

Export is business on a world market, a market where competition isincreasingly fierce The survival and development of exported goods depends greatly

on quality and price This motivates domestic manufacturing enterprises to alwaysinnovate, always improve equipment and machinery to improve production quality

Fourthly, exports have a positive impact on creating jobs and improvingpeople's lives

The impact of exports on livelihoods is multifaceted First of all, throughexport activities, with many different stages, it has attracted millions of workers and

brought relatively high incomes, increased the value of working days, increased

national income Exports also create capital sources to import essential consumergoods, serve the people's life and meet the consumption needs of the people, improvethe material and spiritual life of workers

Fifthly, exports are the basis for expanding and promoting the foreign

economic relations of our country:

Boosting exports plays the role of strengthening international cooperation withother countries, enhancing the position and role of our country in the internationalarena, etc., exporting and export-producing industries promoting credit funds,investment, expanding international transport etc On the other hand, it is the foreigneconomic relations we mentioned above that set the stage for expanding exports (Bui

Xuan Luu, 2012)

1.2.3 Export classification

Around the world, economic actors transact with each other in certain ways

Each export method will have its own characteristics and techniques However, in

practice, exports usually use one of the following main approaches:

- Direct export: This is the export of goods and services produced by the

enterprise itself or purchased from domestic production units to foreign customersthrough its organizations

- Entrusted export: This is a form of business in which the import-export unitacts as an intermediary on behalf of the producer to sign an export contract, carry outnecessary procedures for export, so that the manufacturer and thereby enjoy a certainamount of money called the mandate fee

- Convection trade: This is one of the export transaction methods in exportclosely combined with imports, sellers are also buyers, the amount exchanged with

each other has equivalent value In this method of export, the goal is to obtain a

quantity of goods of equal value

- Export of goods under protocol: This is a form of export of goods (usually for

debt assignment) signed under a protocol between two governments

- On-site export: The characteristic of this type of export is that the goods do

not need to cross the national border that customers can still buy Therefore, exporters

do not need to enter foreign markets, but customers find exporters themselves

- International processing: This is a business method in which one party calledthe party receiving the processing of raw materials or semi-finished products ofanother party (called the processed) to process finished products delivered to theprocessed and receive remuneration (called processing fee)

- Temporary import for re-export: This is a form of exporting back to abroadgoods previously imported and unprocessed in the country of re-export through a re-

export contract, including import and export with the aim of earning a larger amount

of foreign currency than the amount of foreign currency originally spent (Bui XuanLuu, 2001)

1.3 Factors affecting rice export activities

Literature body (e.g., Le Thi Huyen, 2020) has concluded a number of factors

affecting rice export activities including:

1.3.1 Group of factors affecting production

¢ Natural conditions

Rice is an organic product, so the type and quality of goods depend greatly onbiological properties, soil conditions, soil and climate If natural conditions aresuitable, the new rice variety will grow well and bring high yields Land is the mostimportant means of production of rice cultivation Soil fertility deeply governs

intensive farming capacity and product cost.

e Seeds, fertilizers, pesticides etc

Rice varieties are a factor that greatly affects the quality of exported rice

products Good rice varieties, with high quality yields, will bring efficiency toproduction In addition, fertilizers, pesticides etc also directly affect the quality ofexported rice Seeds, fertilizers and pesticides are important materials in cropproduction because they have a direct impact on agricultural production efficiency

and consumer health.

¢ Production machinery, capital

The elements of material and technical facilities are transportation systems,

warehouses, wharves, and also communication systems etc This system ensures fastcirculation, saving time and circulation costs In addition, if there are conditions for

capital, enterprises can easily invest in modern rice processing machinery and

equipment, thereby helping to improve the quality of processed rice, meeting theincreasing needs of customers

e¢ Human resources

To have a source of rice for export, it takes a lot of labor to carry out production

as well as other stages in the process of exporting goods Because agriculturalproduction is wide, it requires humans to perform the work

© Harvesting and processing technology

Technical, technological and consumption factors are especially important inincreasing access and expanding rice consumption markets The processing systemwith modern line technology will contribute to increasing the quality and value of

exported rice.

© State policies on rice production

The State's policy towards rice production can have a major impact on rice

exports State policies to support rice production, such as loan programs, tax breaks,technological assistance and productivity improvement, can affect rice production

1.3.2 Group of factors affecting export

© Quality and price of rice

Quality and price are competitive factors among exporters of countries Goodseed sources not only bring high yields but also create quality products and beautiful

designs High quality rice can be exported to high-end markets such as the US, Korea,

etc Meanwhile, low-standard rice mainly serves the needs of the Philippines, Cuba

or African markets The quality of rice directly affects the export price of rice.

© Types of rice

Social culture has a great influence on the consumption behavior or eatinghabits of people in different countries Depending on different geographical regions,consumers' preferences will be different and so will rice consumption preferences

Therefore, different types of rice will be favored in different markets, capturing the

type of rice will help export activities more smoothly

© Rice brand

In the market, there are many rice labels sold on stores, supermarkets etc Each

label has its own characteristics With unbranded or monotonous rice products, it willnot impress consumers, moreover, without highlighting the uniqueness, the origin for

exported rice will not attract consumers.

© State policies towards rice export activities

The State's pricing policy may affect the competitiveness of exported rice in theinternational market If the state establishes attractive and competitive prices for rice,

it can help boost exports

In addition, regulations on the degree of freedom of export, export duties, export

restriction measures and other related regulations can all affect the market access andcompetitiveness of exported rice Food safety and certification requirements can have

a significant impact on rice exports

Marketing and advertising support policies from the State can have a significant

impact on rice exports Investing in advertising, international exhibition participation,

brand image building and strengthening trade ties can help increase rice awarenessand export market access

Import restrictions by other countries may also affect rice exports If countries

impose anti-dumping measures, anti-subsidy fees or other trade barriers on imported

rice, this could make it difficult to access markets and reduce rice exports.

© Import demand

Rice is considered an essential commodity, the main food of many countries

around the world In countries with high per capita income such as Japan, USA,

Singapore, etc the demand for rice is no longer concentrated in quantity but on thehigh quality and high-quality characteristics of rice such as clarity, plasticity, aroma

of rice grains, so it is necessary to find out the tastes of consumers in the importingcountry, to see what kind of rice they need How much volume is needed to supply,

thereby improving the efficiency of rice production.

© Competition in import markets

Rice import markets have fierce competition between rice products from

exporting countries and competition from imported rice products and the domesticmarket In addition, large rice purchasing countries tend to reduce demand and movetowards food resource autonomy; Meanwhile, rice exporting countries increasedexports to the market, leading to increasingly difficult rice exports to rice-importing

countries.

e Policy (tariff, non-tariff) of the importing country

If rice-importing countries strictly control quality issues and build tariff barriers,

exports to these markets will go through many stages and be very difficult Incontrast, with importing countries granting quotas to exporting countries, having a

tariff reduction roadmap, the trend of rice exports to these countries will increase.

1.4 Criteria for assessing the current status of rice export activities

1.4.1 Criteria for assessing the current status of rice export

To evaluate rice exports, following criteria can be used (Le Thi Huyen, 2020)

¢ Turnover

Outgoing turnover is the total export value (amount of money collected) of all

exported goods of the country (or an enterprise) in a certain period (usually quarter

or year), followed by synchronous conversion to a certain type of monetaryorganization The higher the export turnover, the more economic and financialdevelopment of the enterprise or the whole country

e Item structure

The type of rice has a direct impact on the price and efficiency of rice export

activities When exporting good rice varieties such as Jasmine rice and fragrant rice,

reducing the structure of low-quality rice, it will attract more new import markets,stabilize product quality

© Market structure

To evaluate the effectiveness of rice exports, market share or market structure

is an important criterion The larger the market share of rice exports, proving that riceexport activities have achieved efficiency On the contrary, the export share in the

small market proves that the country's export activity is weak.

o Production cost and cost advantages (the ability to reduce costs).

Price is an important factor, a measure of the supply-demand balance in a

market economy Although the demand for rice is less volatile, with specialty

products, the price is quite decisive The rice price index changes over the years, but

it has little effect on world exports

o Product quality and the ability to ensure the improvement of product quality

of the enterprise

Product quality is the leading factor to boost exports Having prestige andquality will help Vietnamese goods access the market better Vietnamese enterprisesare gradually improving product quality to gain the trust and choice of partners by

promoting the application of science and technology to the cultivation and harvesting

process, improvements in rice milling, preservation and processing technology

° Market share

Rice products have a high market share in the import market, proving thatthe product is favored in the market, the competitiveness of that rice product is

stronger than that of other rice products.

1.4.2 Criteria for assessing the impact of RCEP on rice exports

According to research by Le Tung Son, Nguyen Thi Thanh, Vu Thi BichXuyen and Cao Thi Lien (2021), the following criteria can be used to assess the

impact of RCEP on rice exports:

1.4.2.1 Group of evaluation criteria associated with RCEP

© RCEP preferential level of tariffs for rice

When signing the RCEP agreement, in general, the export tax rate of rice has

decreased compared to the current tariffs (AJ, VJ) The reduction of RCEP tariffs

compared to current tariffs on rice products has created opportunities for riceexporters to the markets of signatory countries to participate in global value chains

e The level of compliance with RCEP rules of origin of Vietnamese rice exports

Origin of goods are the relevant rules and requirements for identifying goods

originating in a particular country or territory according to each specific rule of origin.

If Vietnam's rice exports to RCEP countries meet the rules of RCEP, Vietnamese rice

will have many opportunities and prospects to enter the markets of RCEP countries,

especially more demanding markets

1.4.2.2 Group of general evaluation criteria

Production and processing capacity

If the rice production and processing capacity is good, it will help the quality

of rice products to be high, easily meet the quality requirements of RCEP countries,thereby creating conditions for Vietnam to easily enter the market

Competitiveness of Vietnamese rice exported to RCEF countries in terms of

quality, type, price, brand

RCEP countries are potential markets for rice exports, so there are now manycountries joining such as Thailand, India, China, etc If Vietnam's rice products are

of good quality, suitable to consumer needs, competitive prices, and building a strongbrand, the higher the chances of entering and standing firmly in this market

° The level of responsiveness to general policies — quotas etc For imported rice

of the market

Currently, Vietnam is trying to meet all requirements of RCEP countries for

exported rice products such as sanitary and epidemiological policies, customs taxrates to easily re-enter the RCEP countries' markets

RCEP consumers are increasingly concerned about their health, the origin andquality of the products they consume Much of the usual regulation focuses on quality,size, weight and packaging labeling Labeling regulations require information suchas: country of origin, product name, type and quantity RCEP countries requireimported products to comply with regulations in the Food Sanitation Law, Japan'sAgricultural Standards Law and the Metrology Law In Japan, for example, theMinistry of Health, Labor and Social Welfare and the Environment Agency areresponsible for setting and testing residue levels These residue levels are based onthe Food Sanitation Act (FAO, 2007)

Before goods arrive, exporters must notify quarantine stations at importlocations in RCEP countries through an electronic system managed by the Ministry

of Health and Social Welfare To reduce the time spent on customs clearance, a

product sample can be sent to a laboratory in RCEP countries or in the exportingcountry and the test results will be used for advance customs declaration.Consumption duties and other import duties must be paid before declarations arefinalized

1.5 Overview of RCEP and regulations for rice

1.5.1 RCEP overview

The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is an agreement

aimed at expanding and deepening the engagement between ASEAN and Australia,

China, Japan, South Korea and New Zealand RCEP countries account for about 30%

of global GDP and 30% of the world's population The objective of RCEP is toestablish a modern, comprehensive, high-quality and mutually beneficial economic

partnership that will facilitate the expansion of trade and investment in the region,

while contributing to global economic growth and development Accordingly, theagreement will bring market opportunities and jobs for businesses and people in theregion RCEP will parallel and support an open, inclusive and rules-based multilateraltrading system

1.5.2 RCEP regulations for rice

Tariff regulations

1.1 The importing Member shall grant preferential tariff treatment under this

Agreement if the goods originate based on the Certificate of Origin

1.2 Except as otherwise provided in this Chapter, in order to permit

preferential tariff treatment, the importing Member requires:

(a) Declare that the goods are considered to be of origin;

(b) The certificate of origin of goods is still valid within the declaration periodprescribed at Point a of this Clause;

(c) provide the original or certified copy of the Certificate of Origin ifrequested by the importing Member

1.3 Notwithstanding paragraphs | and 2 of this Article, the importing Membermay not require the presentation of a Certificate of Origin if:

(a) the customs value of the imported shipment does not exceed US$200 or itsequivalent in the currency of the importing Member or any higher amount that the

importing Member may establish; or

(b) goods exempt from requirements from the importing Member, provided

that the import is not a continuous chain or is planned with the aim of evading

compliance with the regulations of the importing Member in order to enjoy

preferential tariff treatment under this Agreement.

1.4 The customs authority of the importing Member may request, wherenecessary, the importer to provide documentation to prove that the goods are deemed

to have originated as required by this Chapter.

1.5 The importer must demonstrate that the requirements specified in Article

3.15 (Direct Shipping) are met and provide documentation required by the customs

authorities of the importing Member State

1.6 Where the Certificate of Origin is submitted to the customs authority ofthe importing Member after the validity period, the Certificate of Origin shall still beaccepted according to the regulations of the importing Member State, when the timeperiod is not met due to force majeure or other valid causes beyond the control of theimporting Member exporter or importer

Regulations of origin

RCEP rules of origin are set out in Chapter 3 Under this rule, goods are

considered originating if one of the following three conditions is met: (i) The goodsoriginate purely in a Member State; (ii) Goods produced solely from materials

originating from one or more Member States; (iii) Goods using non-originating

materials but meeting the provisions of the Item Specific Rules

In the Commodity Specific Rule, in addition to applying the Regional PriceValue Content (RVC) rule or the Commodity Code Conversion (CTC) rule, some

chemical commodity lines under Chapters 29 and 38 are subject to Chemical

Reaction Rules equivalent to RVC or CTC rules

For the process of issuance and inspection of certificates of origin, certificates

of origin include Certificates of Origin (C/O), self-declaration of origin documents ofeligible exporters, self-certification of origin of goods of exporters Vietnam together

with RCEP member countries (except Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar) shallcommence the implementation of the exporters self-certification of originmechanism no later than 10 years after the implementation date of the Agreement In

case it cannot be implemented in these 10 years, countries are allowed to extend it for

up to 10 more years to implement this mechanism

1.6 The role of boosting rice exports in the context of RCEP

Firstly, rice exports have a positive impact on creating jobs and improving

people's lives.

Exports first of all increase farmers' incomes, especially in areas specializing

in wet rice cultivation After all, exports help solve a large amount of surplus labor in

the country From there, it will lead to the development of related industries and lead

to the development of the entire economy:

° Rice exports create favorable conditions for other industries to have

opportunities for development

° Rice export facilitates the expansion of the ability to provide inputs for

production, improving domestic production capacity

° Create an economic and technical premise to improve domestic production

Thirdly, rice exports create the main source of capital for imports for thecountry's industrialization.

The process of industrialization requires capital to import high-tech machineryand equipment to keep up with the modern industry of developed countries

Fourthly, rice export contributes to improving rice quality and yield.

In order to successfully implement the integration process into the world andregional economy, our country needs to constantly improve rice quality, rice yieldetc creating competitiveness for Vietnamese rice, especially when our country joinedAFTA, WTO and recently CPTPP, Vietnamese rice faced great competitive pressure,

especially Thai rice Therefore, improving the quality of Vietnam's rice exports is

inevitable when participating in integration into the world and regional economy At

the same time, increasing rice yield will help the export of this commodity to be maintained at a very high rate.

1.7 Practical experiences on rice exports and lessons learned for Vietnam

1.7.1 Experience from Thailand

Thailand is one of the world's leading countries in rice exports and can bringvaluable experience to Vietnam In 2021, Thailand exported 7.69 million tons of rice

in 2022, up 22.1% from 2021 Thailand's rice exports exceeded the previously set

target of 7.5 million tons with the top markets being Iraq, South Africa, China and

the US (Vietnam News Agency, 2023)

Thailand has put a lot of effort into improving the quality of rice exports They

have formulated strict quality standards, applied advanced technology in the

production process, and paid attention to ensuring food safety The focus on qualityhas helped Thailand build a good brand image and create trust with internationalconsumers.

Instead of focusing solely on raw rice exports, Thailand has stepped up the

production and export of high-end processed rice products such as glutinous rice,

nutmeg rice, brown rice, organic rice, and quarter rice This helps Thailand increaseexport value and expand consumption markets.

Thailand has developed long-term trade relationships with key export partners,

such as China and Europe Maintaining a stable relationship has helped Thailandensure a stable consumption market and reduce risks

1.7.2 Experience from India

India is the world's largest rice exporter, and can provide important experiencefor Vietnam In 2022, India's rice exports increased by 3.5 per cent compared to 2021

to 22.26 million tons, which is larger than the total exports of the next four largest

rice exporting countries, Thailand, Vietnam, Pakistan and the US Despite the

government's export restrictions, India's rice exports soared to record highs due to the

very competitive price of Indian rice In 2022, India's regular rice exports reached 17.86 million tons; while exports of premium basmati rice reached 4.4 million tons.

India mainly exports regular (non-basmati) rice to Africa and Asia; while basmati

rice is mainly exported to the Middle East, USA and UK India offers 25% broken

white rice at around $430 per ton; while the price of Vietnamese white rice 25%

broken is at about 440 USD and Thailand is at about 500 USD (Reuters, 2023)

India has invested in building transport infrastructure, including transport

infrastructure and storage systems This has helped mitigate issues related to rice

transportation and storage, while providing a solid base to enhance export capabilities

India has focused on developing diversified consumption channels, including

domestic and export markets The expansion of consumer markets has helped Indiaincrease its dependence and reduce risks from some key markets

Lessons learned for Vietnam

From the experiences of Thailand and India in rice exports, Vietnam can draw

important lessons to develop the rice industry:

Putting quality as a top priority helps build a good brand image and create trust

with international consumers Vietnam should adopt strict quality standards, use

advanced technology and ensure food safety in the rice production process

In order to increase export value and expand consumption markets, Vietnamshould boost the production and export of high-end processed rice products This

includes diversifying product categories such as glutinous rice, nutmeg rice, brown

rice, organic rice and quarter rice

Vietnam needs to establish and maintain long-term trade relationships with

key export partners This helps ensure stable consumption markets and reduces risksfrom market volatility At the same time, Vietnam should seek and expand new exportmarkets to diversify consumption sources and reduce dependence on a few uniquemarkets

Vietnam needs to adopt smart management measures to ensure stable ricesupply and price stability Market analysis and forecasting, along with the application

of flexible policies to regulate production and exports, will help minimize risks andprotect the interests of rice producers

Vietnam needs to strengthen promotional and marketing activities to enhancethe awareness and visibility of Vietnamese rice in the international market, invest in

building a good brand image, strengthen marketing and promotion through communication activities, exhibition participation, etc international fairs and create

creative marketing campaigns to attract the attention of potential customers

Vietnam can learn from the experiences of Thailand and India by establishinglinks and cooperation with international partners in the field of research The sharing

of knowledge, techniques and resources will help Vietnam improve its capacity andmake the most of its rice industry's potential

The investment in human resource training and development is crucial toimprove the quality and productivity of the rice industry This can ensure an in-depth

understanding of production processes, quality management, and access to newtechnologies.

The protection of the environment and the implementation of sustainableproduction methods are crucial to ensure the long-term development of the riceindustry Vietnam should promote the use of organic farming methods, water

resources management and the sustainable use of fertilizers and pesticides At the

same time, the adoption of green technologies and waste management will helpminimize negative impacts on the environment

To enhance its export capacity and meet the needs of international markets,Vietnam needs to invest in the development of transport and logistics infrastructure.The improvement of seaports, railways, roads and transportation systems will helpenhance rice export capacity and reduce transportation costs In addition, the

construction of modern warehouses and storage systems will also assist in managing

the supply and export of rice effectively

CHAPTER 2: CURRENT SITUATION OF RCEP IMPACTS ON

VIETNAM'S RICE EXPORTS

2.1 Current situation of Vietnam's rice export activities in the period of 2019 —

2022

2.1.1 Turnover

Vietnam appears on the world rice market as the third largest exporter, after

Thailand and India In recent years, Vietnam's rice export volume has increased

strongly and has risen to rank second in the world in terms of rice exports afterThailand Rice production and export activities are most active in the Red River Delta

and Mekong Delta.

Among the main rice production regions in Vietnam, the Mekong Delta shows

special strengths in agriculture This region has an area of 12.2% of the total area ofthe country Particularly, rice accounts for 47% of the area and 56% of the country'srice production; Rice exports from the whole region account for 90% of production

Vietnam accounts for about 15% of the world's total rice exports Currently,

Vietnamese rice has been exported to more than 150 countries and territories, besides

the traditional market, which has gradually expanded export markets to the Americas,the Middle East etc High-end white rice and fragrant rice products have initiallypenetrated fastidious markets such as Korea, Japan, the US, and the EU andcontinuously maintained the position of the world's 3rd largest exporter, after India

and Thailand.

Before RCEP came into effect, in 2019, the country exported 6.37 million tons

of rice, equivalent to 2.81 billion USD, up 4.1% in volume but down 8.4% in turnover

compared to 2018 Rice exports in 2020 reached 6.15 million tons, worth about 3.07billion USD Although the export volume of rice decreased by about 3.5% compared

to 2019, mainly for the purpose of ensuring national food security, the export valueincreased by 9.3% According to a report of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural

Development (MARD), the export volume of rice in 2021 reached 6.15 million tons,

equivalent to 2020 with a value of about 3.27 billion USD, up 4.8% compared to2020.

=> Export output (million tons) mmzsValue of export (billion USD)

Export growth in quantity ©——Export growth in value

Figure 2.1 Vietnam rice exports from 2018 — 2022

Source: General Department of Customs

In 2022, after the RCEP Agreement comes into effect, Vietnam's rice exportmarket has many advantages According to the General Department of Customs, thetotal rice export volume for the whole year 2022 reached more than 7.1 million tons,

up 13.8% over the same period last year In terms of export value, it reached morethan 3.45 billion USD, up 5.1% over the same period last year This is the highestnumber in the past 5 years This also the number exceeding the expectations of the

whole industry in the context of many changes in the world, continues to be Vietnam's

billion-dollar item

To achieve this result, it must be mentioned that fluctuations in the world havebrought advantages of Vietnamese rice exports The Russia-Ukraine war and theRussia-EU trade war have threatened global food security Russia is the world'sleading supplier of wheat and other food products The ongoing fighting has

prompted Russia to cut food exports to EU countries This has prompted EU countries

to quickly look for new supplies to ensure sufficient food supply for their domesticpopulations In contrast, Vietnam is the world's leading rice exporter, having won the

"World's Best Rice in 2020" award with ST25 rice products 2022 recorded strong

growth not only in output but also in the export value of Vietnamese rice According

to VFA, at one point in 2022, the export price of 5% broken rice surpassed Thailandand ranked first in the world

mam Export output (thounsand tons) mums Export value (million USD)

Export growth in quantity Export growth in value

Figure 2.2 Vietnam rice exports in 2022

Source: General Department of Customs

According to the above data, we see that Vietnam's rice export situationfluctuates continuously in both output and value Mostly, the months of 2022 havebeen volatile In the first 2 months of 2022, rice exports decreased in value But thanks

to the breakthrough in March, rice export results in the first quarter of 2022 grew atdouble-digit rates

At the beginning of the year, concerns about supply shortages due to escalatingRussia-Ukraine tensions along with rising gasoline prices pushed up food prices At

its peak in June, Vietnam's total rice export volume and value reached the highestlevel all year Total production reached more than 726.1 thousand tons, up 2.4% overthe previous month, and the total value reached more than 354 million USD, up 2.3%

over the previous month From March onwards, commodity markets continued to be

volatile as inflation enveloped economies and banks raised interest rates but cruderice prices remained stable

Meanwhile, the Chinese market switched to importing large quantities of rice

at the end of the year On the other side of the hemisphere, EU countries also tend toincrease rice imports to replace the reduced wheat supply from the Russia-Ukraineconflict This has brought a "golden" opportunity for Vietnamese rice exports Since

then, expanding consumption markets and improving competitiveness with Thai rice,

India etc Many forecasts show that the current context will continue to expand forVietnamese rice exports in early 2023

2.1.2 Item structure

From Table 2.1, it is found that in 2019, exports of white rice and fragrant rice

tended to increase while other rice products decreased sharply compared to 2018.Meanwhile, the proportion of exported glutinous rice plummeted by 11%, theproportion of Japanese seed rice decreased by 1.7%, brown rice, organic rice, red riceetc down 0.5%, parboiled rice down 0.2%

Table 2.1: Exported rice categories of Vietnam, 2018 - 2019

Proportion of rice in 2019) Proportion of rice in 2018