Di cư biến Đổi khí hậu và thất nghiệp Ở châu Á

Di cư biến Đổi khí hậu và thất nghiệp Ở châu Á Di cư biến Đổi khí hậu và thất nghiệp Ở châu Á Di cư biến Đổi khí hậu và thất nghiệp Ở châu Á Di cư biến Đổi khí hậu và thất nghiệp Ở châu Á Di cư biến Đổi khí hậu và thất nghiệp Ở châu Á Di cư biến Đổi khí hậu và thất nghiệp Ở châu Á

MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING HO CRI MINH CITY OPEN UNIVERSITY

AP

HUYNH HIEN HAI

MIGRATION, CLIMATE CHAN GE, AND UNEMPLOYMENT IN ASIA

DOCTORAL DISSERTATION

Ho Chi Minh City — 2023

MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING HO CHI MINH CITY OPEN UNIVERSITY

HUYNH HIEN HAI

MIGRATION, CLIMATE CHANGE,

AND UNEMPLOYMENT IN ASTA

Research Area: Economics

Assoc Prof., Dr Ha Thi Thiew Dao

This dissertation i is implemented at Ho Chi Minh city Open University

ˆ Supervisors:

7 Pr Vo Hone Dục -

Assoc Prof Dr Ha T nhị Thiet Dao

Reviewer 3 we tS Vof eevee ce vave sy Ne SM hee vee MEE ee eg OR ake paw ay ¬ —ố ¬ vỞ Nga ¬ ece a eee và

This dissertation wil be cdeRnded at Ho Chi Minh city ọ pen Univ jersity | The disser tation is stored at:

T The tary of Ho Chit Minh củy Open Univer sity _ The Non library of Vietnam

DISSERTATION DECLARATION ©

H Huynh Hien Hai, certify that:

| This dissertation has been substantially accomplished during men in this

- this dissertation contain work under review for publication, some of which has ficcn co-authors,

| Signature:

Date:

OF

ACKNOWL EDGEME INTS For myself five years ago, that dreadful cave'ls symbofized by ait acadertic j journey _ through & PhD, the completion of which involves a great deal of preparation, trials and -

€trors, điscipline, perseverance, and coffee, Talking shortcuts is rarely an option and

addressing constructi ive criticism becomes ai titegral aspect of my work, Fortunately, |

_ the lft of § PRD candidate has many rewarding facets, Being able ig build and share valuable stilts and experience ag a youngster ina dynamic and international — environment is one of them At the Ho Chi Minh city Open University (OU), lạm - _ grateful tờ so many people for acquiring a combination of Skills which‘ were necessary |

ta complete my studies and to ‘prepare myself for future changes Here j is the ubnost "

an

This dissertation has been examined by Dr Vo Hong: Dục (The University of | Western ‘Australia and Ho Chi Minh City Open University) and Assoc Prof, Dr Ha : -

Thi Thiệu Đạo (Hạ Chỉ Mink University of Bank ing) I would tike to express my —

sincerest thanks to the two examiners for the valuable time they devoted to the |

assessment af my work Their comments, which range from general comin cidations to

| critical assessments on various ‘aspects at the dissertation presentation, have E motivated : - me #rcaly to strive for improved quality and clarity,

| Interestingly, J would like to thank ty lecturers, my colleagues and many PhD:

students who have guided me, supported me in my PhD Journey and participated inthe evaluation committee in the past steps of the dissertation They have -g giver fo me many comments, encouragemenis helpful advice and timely reminders that they have helped ane become more and more mature in my research j journey in the past, current and both

in the future I also especially thank the dissertation committees at the ¿ teVolg steps by S

| Steps for Biving ine helpful comm ents and advice | My family plays no small part in nthe successful endeavor of this project: i thank my a ‘Par ents, my wif €, ; tý friends _ Whose § support and understanding are always with me

Hi

wherever my dreams lcad me, Words alone are not sufficient to express wha I owe people I thus dedicate my dissertation work to the em

| With all this caidl Tam nage to explore the sext cave to find the next treasure in my life ¬

Ho Chi Mình, 2023

Haynh Hien Hai.

~ SUMMARY OF DISSERTATION - “MIGRATION, CLIMATE CHANGE, AND UNEMPLOYMENT IN ASIA | ‘This dissertation contributes t to the literature on ‘climatic factors, international migration, and unemployment in several ways The motivations for the Rudy omerge from : practical circumstances and resear ch sans from the existing literature: Statistics y eveal that | Asia is ranked the second-largest repion ni the world } in terms af the number of migrants, | me following Europe On the theurctical aspects, this study offers a comprehensive and

Systematic review of migration theories within the context of climate change and fabor

market unemployment, The study aims to provide a compr chensive review of relevant

- theories 4 ad cmpiricaf analyses to identify restarch gaps Based 0n empirical results, this: _đÍsser tation analyzes the influence of climatic factors on migration and urvestigates their: impact on unemployment in Asian countries, This study alsa examines the ‘effects of

climatic factors on the labor market, including unemployment, in the short and long terms This study primarily focuses on climatic factors Such as temperature, rainfall, i, and carbon | dioxide emissions, which affect ‘Migration and unemployment, The siudy provides

important empirical results pertaining to Asian countries, with a forus on both the short

and long term This study seeks to di scover new findings related to the complex interactions among climate change, migration, and unemployment, especially at the macro-level in» _ Asia The dissertation starts with research | objectives, contr ibutions, the theoretical

framework ‘and research questi Ons, T proceeds to pr ovide definitions related to migration, | climate change, and unemployment The study also systematically synthesizes T6 evant

issues Which are then addressed j in this dissertation, including the impacts of climate change |

and socio-economic factors on migration i in Asia In addition, the effects of migration on

unemployment have aise been investigated for Asian coun tries, The influence of climatic factors on unemployment has s also been investigated j in Asia

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APPENDIX 1 LIST TH ! SELECTED ASIAN COUNTRIES _ Ma}

APPENDIX? 3 EC ON OMETRIC RESU DLT8 có EMERY NAN oR eRe ee RENN Nery

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Table tf Table 23 Table 3.1 Table 3.3 Table 3.3 Table 3.4 Table 3 A

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Empirical results — isitects of climatic Factors to migration using 8 CMM

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Deseriptive statishts Collinearity MANIK coc ———_—— H1?

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Empirical results ~ EWects oŸ the migration on nhe unemployment rate nsing GMM estimations KH Gv x ve, a an ẽ 4

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z5 A summary of the hypotheses and Fesults vee ắc.

Figure 1.1 Figure 1.2

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Figure 2.1 _Elgure2.? Figure 2,3

Figure 24 Figure 2.5

The global international migrant stock by region 1990-2020 a LE The average unemployment pate in Asia countries {HI - 2020 ¬— LE The origia and destination factors in migration oo tự ¬ 36

The model of migration aud unemployment by Hris-Todaro ——-

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- ABBREVIATION

| TL: International Labor Organization WR: World Bank

TOM: Internationa Organization for Mi gration IPCC: Intergovernmental Panel Orr Climate Change: OECD: The OrganizaHon for E conomic Co operation and Deve ‘lopnient : OL s Generalized least squares

= GMM The generalized method of imoments -

FMOLS: Fully modified ordinary least s square -

DOLS: The panel dynamic ordinary least spare

CCR: The Canonical Cointegration Regression

CHAPTER 1

So INTRODUCTION Jn this chapter, this chapter wit pr ésent basic contents of the dissertation, inchiding an overview, resear ch objectives, question objectives, and the value and significaneés af

this study E ach of these aspects is summarized as bélow

Lb Overview:

Since the earliest times, human beings have also been on n the HOVE, Individuals change places for a variety of different reasons, such ag irymg to find employment or better economic conditions, coming together with their family, or reasons of edacatioa, Some people migrate to evade conflicis, tyramy, violence, or human rights insults, whereas others are compelled ta move che to the pessimistic influences of climate change other SIVW onmental reasons The current fignres show that, as of mid-year: 2019, the worldwide | ,

data of international migrants reached 172 million, with the international migrant stock —— | ‘constituting 3.5 per cent of the world population This rate is mach higher than 2 89% in |

1990 This loads to a global problem of mnigration management in today's society j in order

| to predict and propose appropriate policies for international migration waves In 2019, | | international migrants who were 9 “years oÍd{ and younger ‘and residing in the

country/region consisted of 13 9 per Cerit of the total share (UN, 2020) Table 1 illustrated | | the key data by the W orld Migration Reports which compare figures of migrants between 2000 and 2019

Table id Key data by the Wor id wer ation Reparts between 2000 and 2020

> Estimated proportion af femate intertational migrants ˆ 479% : 479%

‘Estnated proportion of} international muprants Who + ¢ children in wm 13.99%

- 25.9 million:

| Nomber of internally displaced Persons — 3imlllbp - ` địa million

Nuinber of stateless persons ee SỐ xé Ta

32 MiHion

Sout ey ` United Nhtione (2020)

With a population of aronnd 4, 6 billion, Asia contributed fo over 40 per cent of the s

tienational migrants around the world in 2019 which amounted to 111 million, Out of | these, 4 maj jority of 66 million migrants resided in other Asian countries, showing a

substantial fise fr om the pr evious estimate of 6] million ia 2014 3 The trend of initra-regional

migration within, Asia has been steadily j incteasing, reaching 38 million j in 1990 Over the

‘past two decades, there has been remarkable Srowth inthe quantity of migrants whe are

| Asian- born populations | in Europe and Northern Ameri 1ca, In particular, the migration from _ Asia te Northern America rose fram just over 16 million in 2015 to 17 thillion in 2019, and At Was ne arly 22 million in Europe The rise in the number af Asian 1 Tp rants outside the

region was mainly due to migration to Europe zone and Northern America countries, accounting for a whole of 44.6 million extra-regional migrants in 2019

320

Year

mmo Central Asia meme Fasten Asia =—— South-fastem Asia Souther Asia me Western Asia

Source: United Nations (2020) Figure 1.1 International migrant stock at mid-year in Asia 1990-2029

In 2020, Europe and Asia hosted around 87 and 86 million international migrants, respectively, which accounted for 6] per cent of the global international} migrant stock, according to the 202) report by International Organization for Migration (LOM) North America came next with nearly 59 million people who are international migrants, making up 21 per cent of the global migrant stock Africa made up 9 per cent, while Latin America and the Caribbean consisted of 5 per cent, atid Oceania of 3 per cent The share of international migrants was highest in Oceania, North America, and Europe, making up 22 Per cent, 16 per cent, and 12 per cent of the total population, respectively, when compared to the population size in each region In contrast, the share of international migrants was relatively Jow in Asia and Africa (1.8 per cent and 1.9 per cent, respectively) and Latin America and the Caribbean (2.3 per cent) Despite this, Asia experienced the most

substantial growth from 2000 to 2020, with a 74 per cent increase, which translates to

around 37 million people in absolute terms Europe followed closely with an increase of

10

30 million international migrants, while North America experienced a rise of 18 million international migrants and Africa with 10 million (OM, 2021)

58.7M

2S AM 14.8M o£

Oceania Latin Africa

Northern Asia Europe America and America

the Caribbean

Source: International Organ ication for Migration (2021)

figurei.Z The global international migrant stock by region 1990-2020

Besides, the worldwide unemployment rate cant vary significantly due to various reasons, which can be grouped into two broad categories: cyclical and natural Cyclical unemployment is linked to the current economic conditions of a country During a recession, the unemployment rate usually increases as businesses lay off workers, while during an economic expansion, the unemployment rate declines as companies begin to hire more labors Usuaily, it takes approximately from six ahaft to one year of economic growth for the unemployment rate to start decreasing, while the unemployment rate tends to begin rising after a small number of montis of economic Shrinkage As a result the unemployment rate in any given country in a specific year can either be low or high

11

depending on the good or bad growth situation of these countries According to the Intemational Labor Organization, in 2020, the average unemployment rate for Asian countries was 7.56 percent, with Armenia having the highest value of 21 206 percent and Qatar having the lowest value of 0.214 percent (ILO, 2020) According to the International Labor Organization, the data for all countries where data are available of the unemployment rate on the labor force in Asian countries between 1991 and 2020

Unemployment rate in Asia ¢ %)

Source: International Labor Crgantcation (2020)

Figure 1.3 The average unemployment rate in Asia countries 1991 - 2020

Asia is a vast and diverse continent with economies at various stages of development Unemployment rates can vary significantly from country to country Some countries have relatively low unemployment rates due to robust economic growth, while others face higher rates due to structural issues or economic challenges In 2021, some Asian countries, such as Japan and South Korea, had relatively low unemployment rates, around 2-4% (World Bank, 2023), These countries have highly industrialized economies and strong Jabor markets However, other countries, particularly in South Asia and Southeast Asia, had higher unemployment rates, which were affected by factors such as population growth, skills mismatch and informal labor markets For example, India's unemployment rate fluctuated between 6,51 per cent in 2019, 10,2 per cent in 2020 to

12

T3 394 j in 2022, and Indonesia's uttemployment rate was around 3,5 5% in 2022 (Statista, vn 2023) The causes of unemployment ; in Asia-are diverse and can vary depending ‘an the

country's economic structure, level of industrialization, and gay ernment policies, Some

~ common factors contributing ta unemployment in the région Rapid population growth in certain Asian countries can outpace job creation, leading to higher unemployment rates: The shift from agrarian to industrial or service-based economies can result in job | 'đisplaceracnt and structural tnemployment Many Asian | economies are expéricacing 3

| skills gap, where the skills demanded by employers donot align with the skills possessed —

by the dabor force A significant portion of the workfor ce in some Asian COUNTIES Is” | | employed in the informal sector, which lacks job secur ity and social protections Asia's |

ee onomies are imerconnected, and externaf factors such as global : economic’ dow nlurns or | trade disruptions can impact unemployment rates in the region The COVID.19 pandemic

had a profound | tmpact on employment j iN Asia, as it did globally HỆ ockdowns, travel | ‘restrictions, and supply chain disruptions resulted in-job losses and reduced economic

activities in Various sectors The pandemics: impact on unemployment ; was par ticularly | Significant “in ‘industries sich aS tourism, hospitality retail, and manufacturing, | Governinents across Asia implemented various measures ts address unemployment : challenges during the pandemic These measures included financial asistance to affected

individuals and businesses, job retention schemes, and i investments ig infrastructure and | job-creating projects, In the long term, addr essing, unemployment in Asia reaitir es Sustained efforts | in economic diversification skill development, investment 4 in education: and policies that pr omote Job creation and entrepreneurship Encouraging innovation and | supporting small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) can also play a crucial tole in|

generating employment oppor tunities, Unemployment in Asia isa complex issue | influenced by a multitude of factors, While some countries | in the regi on have relatively

low unemployment rates, others face significant challenges i tt generating enough jebs for — their gr 0wing populations: Addressing unemployment requires a comprehensive approach that CONES siders the unique circumstances of each country and region: and includes off orts to

`3

foster economic srowth, imprave education and skills training, and create an tnabling

environment fot job creation and labor market flexibitity | Asia, which i is ‘home to the largest contributors to global war ming, is also one of the most vulnerable areas by the impacts of climatic and environmental fattors: In 2621, | more than $7 million people j in the region were impacted by climate disast ers, and the risk is expected lọ increase If a worst-case scenario occurs, by 2050, the huge Majority of

/ people living ¡ in areas with a high likelihood of deadly heat waves will be in Asia, further

exacerbated by global warmiig and cai bon dioxide emissions PCC, 2022)

The Asia has now generally considered a new dynamic region for socio-economic

problems and economic development Besides, the Asian area is also known a8 an area

which is subject to erratic weather fluctuations, The establistunent of the Asian economies | plays an important role for the Fegion to enhance the regional integration to support

economic er owth for all the tember countries, The movement ‘of fabor in international | integration in the Asian region has also converted 4 very important aspect for policy 7 purposes The complicated relationship of climate change and: the other envir onmental = factors have the strong influences to Inuinan mobility, along WH the tnpact oa the fabor tar Ret Mì the destination and origin countries: Furthermore, our literature review reveals that this significant and intricate relation ship has not garnered Sipriificant attention j in Asia Although it may exist in current literature for the Asian re gion, At lacks sufficient coverage, / Asaresult, we consider that this current gap warrants this re search project to be conducted _ with the particular focus on the Asian region in order ta pr ovide direct and relevant policy -

_"nplieaions for the govemments and international organizations in formulating aad - imptem cating relevant policies,

Farther more, there has been a significant r rise in empirical research focusing on the

effects of climatic factors and other envitonmental ; {SSHES 0H migratioa Nevertheless, there

is no full consensus yet the trends and scales of the influence of these factors on Migration, | While some studies have established a link: between environmental change and a rise in’ -

‘Auman: thiết ation, others have feporicd no effect ora decline i 1h tiệt ation When Backhans s

14C

¬ et al (2015) Falco et al (2018), Sloat et al (2020) used the data.i in the world: Beine Xe

" Parsons ( 2017) discover this relationship por OECD countries: However, Grechi đc

_ Áeustom (2019), Mueller et al (2020); Nawrotzki & Bakhtsiyarava (017), Private 7 country: Chen & Mueller (2019): Dalam & Millock (2017); Evertsen & van der G€est (2019)- Mastrorillo et al (2016); Jha et al (2017), Rafiq ef al (2617): Sedova & Kalkub! € 2020), puckall et al (2017) researched by the private COMRITY The findings of this

coniplex relationship have never analyzed for the Asian counties fully The variation In | - | = empirical fi ndaigs depends on the environmental factors studied: the scale and type of

analysis conducted, thẻ methodology used, and the geographic locations examined - Furthermore, _ tn the same studies, the projecte cd scale and dir ection of environmental " migration can vary significantly.” The heterogeneity of the available evidence makes it

dificult fa tackle the challenges associated with the potential surge in global Migration -

resulting from future erivironmental ch anges

- Migration i is a fascinating and multifaceted conc ept that exerts-a dynamic influence

on society over time, with a byzantine structure regarding to causality and | impact Consequently, 4E generates & wide range of ‘research topics that are meticulously :

investigated ‘by ảnthrogofogi ists, sociologists, historians, scographers, and economists, | Economists, in particular, closely analyze the impacts of migration ont ecandmic growth

and employment, Beyer (2016) noticed that employed a survey method to analyze - | efficiency ofthe German labor mark at, migrant workers camed 20 per cent less and had ~ higher unemployment rates and: ‘dower participation rate of labor market than domestic”

| workers, However the situation has since changed over time, with ani 3 average of 20 years

dafer, The analysis revealed that migrant workers earned 20 per cent less than their domestic |

‘counterparts, had lower labor market participation rates, and higher unemployment rates, | However, this situation has evolved over time, with: an improvement observed on average |

39 vears ister Using monthly population survey data from 2001 to 2013, Rios- Avila and 7 Canavire-Bacarreza 2018 conducted an finding af the effect | of mugration on

unemployment in the United States Their i findings indicated that i immigration did not have

a promin ent impact on unemploynient overall, bat it had amore pronouiced influence: 0n younger and legs ochicated individuals (Lee, 1966 + Altung ef al (2017) conducted a study | using time-series data to find the relationship between: international: migr alion and economic growth, inflation, and unemployment i trì Turkey's economy over the period 1985

2015 In this stady, the researchers discovered between economic: growth: and externa)

_ migration with a reciprocal causal relationship Furthermore, they observed a unidirectional causal association frown inflation to unemployment, from economic ‘growth,

ˆ to inflation, and from unemploynient back to economic growth Finally, the authors |

| inferred that there was no causal ‘connection between 18 employment anil external > Migr ation Using data from the period of 301: 4-3616 and Spearman correlation analysis,

Cshk (018) investigated the connection between unemployment and immigration in | Turkey Their study revealed a substantial and affirmative correlation between bath general |

and youth unemployment with migration and emigration The scope: af empirical studies by recent aulhors i is very diverse, with the focus on EU countries, OECD countries, groups

ar oaly ore country, such as EU: Niea (201 8) ORCT: Craik & Parsons (2 01 Ty Kilic et al (2019), Countries groups: Arisman & Yaja (2020) Mueller et al (2018); Single country:

Islam & Khan (2 Ol 5): Awad et al 2 2015): Latif (2013), Alkhateeb ef al (@01 8): Espinosa |

& Emparanza (2019), AbaBi lsoud et al (2020) Thomas: (20139), Mohler et al (2018), ‘Panthamait (2017), Monte et al (2018) tn general, the literattire On inigration and |

: ‘unemployment yields different results While several researches suggest that migration has

al pessimistic influence on unemp! 0yment, others claim that it has Ầ pessimistic influence On Ceram types of smemployment ‘Several researches find that there i is fo significant relationship between eniployment and migration To date, therei is no widely at knowledged | io relationship between unemployment and international migration in the literature To

expl ‘ore this connection, the study employed panel data analysis The literature review section of the dissertation - ‘aims to find the relationship between migration and unemployment, The study's application section describes the econometric techniques,

dataset, and analysis results, which are subsequently evaluated fo provide -

: recommenclations The objective of this dissertation is to uncover the correlation between

đô

-migration and unemployment U hempfoyment has bee ome a global concern in recent years, affecting not only underdeveloped and: developing nations but also developed ones The ‘social and ctonomic impacts of unemployment have become More apparent duc to the a owing figure and effectiveness of j fatemational econemic and political factors, leading to

ant increase in sensitivity towards the issue (Akgan and Ener, 201 D | th order to analysis these relationships between environment, unemployment and

| migration in Asian count ies This research comprises three interrelated Studies on the connections between climate change, thiệt ation and unemployment Tt employs recently

estimated data on data: of international migration te “explore these relationships and to 7 examine how environmental degr adati on and migration mi ight contribtite to sociceconomic =:

concerns, Parti cularly, the research ing on envir onmental factors affecting nugration which

has not been paid enough attention Interestin aly, there are var ying opinions on the impact -

of the migration on the unerployment in the past and present literature Some studies

_ Suggest that the migration has a pessimistic influence on unemployment, while others

indicate & positive effect, and some: sugeest that there is na sigmificant linking betiveen ˆ unemployment and tigration, The impacts of migration have motivated the author to investigate the connections between environmental and climatic factors and migration, | | snigration | and unemployment, and ‘climatic: factors and unemployment: Utilizing

appropriate econometric tools, ‘the aithor alms to uncover few evidence on these relationships 12 Research objectives and questions

This resear ch project is conducted to achieve the following g research objectives,

_* Rirst, this study investigates the inter-relat lonship between the international Tnigration and the climatic factors such as the temperature, rainfall emission | dioxide and socto-econoinic factors The author considers that this analysis will : pravide evidence: on the rationales for migration due ta the climate change and

‘socio-economic factors The discussion then’ shifts te considering | migration as the -

dependent variable i in the relationship between migration and climatic factors, and

| 49

Third the effects ofthe environmental factor sto the labor market, ia particular the unemployment, in the Asian countries will be examined, both the long-run and |

Shori-run are examined, This dissertation will provide evidence to support the labor

| market i in the Asian region which could prestat some the suitable policies for the -

policymakers, From that, this dissertation will, examine that migration as the _ mediating variable among the relationship -betlween - climatic factors and uisemployment

Research questions: :

"First, how do climate change & Case migration? What i ig “thie contribution of ; ‘climate change and Socio-economic factors tò international migration j in

Asian countries?

* Second, hơi dacs the international migration affect to the unemployment

rate in the Asian region? If so, what i is the magnitude of this effect? What -

| are differences between the 1 country groups? 8 “Third, how have the impacts of the climate change On n the labor market

conditions concerning the unemployment ‘of Asian countries in the short _

tem and long tenn? What are differences between the country ar ups?

“The value and contr ibutions of the dissertation

“48

Findings from’ this dissertation : are expected to contr ibute to existing Mterahie on

the internati onal migr ations on the following grounds

"Firs the impacts of the climate change on the labor market and migration issues which have been widely discussed by economists and practitioners While studies

have ThainÏy focused on the OECD countries, European countries, and the United _ States, the Asian region - a new economic hub for the global economy - seems to have not bron centralized and | the codified compteiely in current literature The Asian countries are mainly the emerging markets where people migrate for differ ent:

reasons, from economic feasons to other reasons, The economic factors still are the

main subject of findings that don't pay attention to the environmental factors to the si

migration,

Second 8 level of economic growth i Be the Asian countries: varies significantly

among members This level is also very different in comparison with other countries

in the world As such, inigration inte and aut of the Asian countries where have the

high rate of the Jabot inigration but there are nat fully findings about the |

intemational migration relating with labor market in the Asia This dissertation

mays provide evidence of the relationship behveen the inigration and the : unemployment 3 in the Asia Due to the abil lity of the ecotiomy and labar demand to

adjust fo changes in labor supply and demand, the impacts of: tr igration may vary in „ the s short-term and the long- term Migr ation can lead to increased competition for

t4

existing: jobs in certain occupational sectors, but Ls can also generate new employment opportunities,

" Third this-dissertation: discovers the influences of climate’ change on ‘the labor —

market which only have the relationship between the climate change and econom te

growth; economic grow th and the tabor market in previons findings, especialy 7

the unemployment Tate in- Asia Subject and scape

is

This study uses the data which get by Worid Bank, International Labor Or ganization arid United Nations from 1980 to 2020 by five-year data with the anfual data because of the limitation of migration data from the United Nations This study employs panel data —— |

analysis to: examine the correlation between Tripration and unemployment To answer the

; first and second hypothesis, this research: Uses the 47 countri¢s’ data with the 5 “year

- estimates because of the limitation of migration data from the United Nation, Furthermore, _ the data j IS not including T aiwan, Hong Kong, Macao, and Palestine because of the lack of

these coutite tes figures To answer the thir d hypothesis, , this research uses the 44 countri cs

data by annual data which ïs not including Taiwan, Hong Kong, Macao, Maldives, Nor th - Korea and Palestine because of the lack of these countries: figures

` La Dissertation outline

This dissertation COVETS + various themes related to international migration with cliniate change, the relationship between international migration and unemployment, aS Well asthe effects of climate change on unemploynrent in Asia The first chapter offers the

introduction of researching problems, Tn the second chapter, the dissertation exam ines | previous research focused on the correlation between climate chang ge and international migration ratés, the link between intemational migration and ‘unemployment rates, and the

direct influences of climate change On unenip Íoyment Chapter three evaluates how climate change factors affect the international Anigration fates in Asian countries, The fourth

Chapter analyzes the impacts of the interhationat Nigration rate On the unemnpl oymient rate,

Next, in chapter five, the direct j Impacts of climate change on the fabor market ¡ in Asia are

sở identified Finally the sixth chapter proposes the main results of dissertation and revive " recommendations for the policymakers

1.6 - ẨnHmar ¥

In the first chapter the dissertation presents some general issues from theory to practice issues of migration, climatic factors and unemployment, especially the dissertation Mentions the necessity of these issues for Asian countries, From: there, the dissertation - Provides research objectives, theoretical framework, research H questions, aswell as presents |

the meaning and contribution value of the dissertation The contents j in the TREX chapters | will clarity the theoretical overview and related research: empirical Studies as well as

Fos oposs research directions, ‘restar rch methods, fesults and appropriate recommendations of the dissertation -

22

_ CHAPTER2 —

LITERATURE REVIEW

; In this chapter, the author discusses related definitions and relevant theories First this chapter presents and discusses inportant concepts such as climate change, unemployment, and ñ1ieration, Second, this chapter pr ovides a comprehensive 7 ¬ eXantination, discussion, and integration of empirical resear ch explori ing the correlation

between migration and climate change, the link between migr ation and unemp! oyment, as

well as the remar Kable relationship of climatic factors and Uaempl oyinent: | | 21 Definitions

To better understand how's about the migration and the related i iSSuUES, thi dissertation starts with the following de defi initions

a4 7 The migrations: _

The social sciences’ attention to international migration has fluctuated with different : waves of cuigration and j immigration, Generally, mizration isa multifaceted phenomenon

involving peaple moving from one place to anather, whether it be: @ permanent or

temporary change of residence (Lee, 1966) Migration can be character Wed as & permanent

or semi-permanent shift i in residence, and as such, # can be viewed as atype af relocation : diffusion, which encompasses the transfer of people, ideas, innovations, and behaviors

from one place to another Specifically; migration involves a permanent move te a new

location, Push and pull factors determine the reasons for peopte to migrate, which either

‘motivate individuals to mave to a new location or force them to leave their: current |

residence These factors may be economic, political, cultural, or environmental, Migration 7 ¬ classified inte two categories based on ‘spatial boundaries: internal and intemational

Ìgration Internal migration refers to the movement of people within a country’s borders,

whereas international migration involves the amovement af individuals $ across borders `

22

between different countries, According | to, the UN (2017, migration refers to the act of “moving from one tig gration “defining area fo anottier, or the act of moving a minimum

specified distance during a given fieralion period, which includes 8 change i m residency A misrant is further defined as nà individual who has relocated trom one migration- | defining arcato another (or moved a minimum specified distance) at least once during thế _ taiBration per iod, resulting j ina 1 change of their usual place of residence.” ,

The origin (departute) area refersta the location from which a migration ig initiated, while the destin ation (arrival) area is where the migration concludes CONE, 2017}, Migration - tan be classified as cither permanent or teraporary Temporary migration refers to when rural family members move to a destination location for a specified duration and return to ‘their-place of origin On-the other hand, permanent migration mvolyes individuals who have permanently relocated from their Tegion of orig sin and established thet residence i in “the destination area In the context of this research, a Tural household ; 18 categorized as a

Trgrant-sending houschold when at least one family member migrates loa destination - location | Lo carn 2 wage income, “Whether itis ona temporary oY 'P€financnt basis

Migration flows tan be defined as the ‘volume of migrants who enter or + exit 8 particular country within a specified time period, typically one year (UN, 261 7 However, countries employ diverse concepts, definitions, and data collection techniques when |

‘compiling statistics on Migration flows, mem ational migrant stocks are approximations of

‘the overall count of intemmational inigrants currently residing in 4 specific country ai a | - particular moment, Information on migrant stocks j is frequently reported í iN conjunction |

Wath data on migrant flows The focus of this research is on migration flows > Specifically : the count: ‘of migrants moving from Country A to Ẹ ‘ountry B The net migration rate is | calculated by subtracting the number of emigrants from the number of immigrants in a” 7 given country over the previous five years, and ther dividing this figure by the tumber of

| persun- years lived by the population of that country over the same period The result:j is expressed a8 the: average annual net number of migrants per oe peopte In this research,

the focus i is on net migration, which refers te the net total of migrants during a specific

: period This includes bath citizens and noncitizens and is.calculated as the total number of _

- iminigrants minus the animal number of enligrants (UN, 201 SN This dissertation 1 use ihe

net migration rate followi ing this defi inition which j is estimated by United Nations

| Migration, refers to the movement of people from c ane place fo another, either within : a coutitry or across International borders Here are a few definitions af niigr ation, according to the United Nations, migration ¡ is described ag the movement of: a1 ‘individual ora group

of peaple, either across an international border or within a state Similarly, the International 7 Organization for Migration đOM) defines migration as the movement ofa person or a và

group of persons, cither across an international border or within a state; with the intention of establishing @ new or: semi-permanent residence (UN, 2017) The: World Health Organization WHO) defines migration as the Process of moving from one geographical |

| location to another, with the intention of changirig one's place of residence Th the context :

of human geogr aphy, migration encompasses the relocation of individuals fron one place 7 to another, with ‘the aim of establishing a new residence, whether permanently: or temporarily Ikisa multifaceted social, economic, and political plicnomenan with profound | : - implications for individuals, communities, and countries as a whole Bayelsky, 2000)

mm phenomenon of migration has always been of great interest to economists and ‘Sociologists duc to the problems th at arise, Migration leads toa decrease in the labor supply

Where migrants leave anid an increase where they move to In addition to the chang gt in the | Manual labor force, migration also entails the movement of gray matter ard intellectual human resources from one area to another, Migration helps to balance or- reduce labor _ demand | in the area where migrants atrive, reducing labor costs and contributing to -

Increased profits for employers However miệt ation also increases social problems such | ag instability ; in security, health, politics, climate change etc, The benefi its and casts of

| migration 1 the destination and origin places are always biased TT

In general, ‘scientists consider migration as mov cement int space of peapte with the purpose of snowing, 56 itis difftcul le fo distinguish the specificity of migration ia the overall

"-movement between territories Essentially, many scientists in the specialized field of | migration disagree with the broad definition of migration Such definitions, they a argue, might include human disturbances related to “mechanical movement of the population”

That isa simple understanding , tegardlcss of distance, time, and purpose of travel in fact, " Af the movement of a ntigr ant is only, socio-professional and the change in their status or

place af work within the territory of the same community, the movenient does not always : coincide with the movements of the population ta: a narrow sense, migration is the process of movitig peopile associated with frequent change of residence, chang ge of lovation and $ environment from the place of or igin te the place of destination i in a certain period oftime, Depending on the level of tite and continuity, inter- -tegional migration has the form of TẾ, | ‘Migration and on-retumn fier ation Resmigration consists of ‘two types inchiding

pendufam migration and seasonal Migration Non-return migr ation isa form of permencat displacement from the place of permanent residence, (UN, 201 A

In £938, the United Nations defined migration j 1s that migration j isa form of human

movement} m space ‘between one adthinistrative geogr aphical unit and another in order to ‘éstablish a new place of residence Within a certain period of time The change of place of

‘residence is reflected in the concept of place of origin and place of § immigration 1958) (UN, - |

difference between moving out and moving in in a given area

Migration has a clear | impact on the sũcio- -economic environment j in both origin and

| destination Departure, positive sides are inchiding, migt ation always contains i itt its heart 4 the movement, departure, Boing to cam a living of individuals families and husbands : Migration Provides opportunities for people to find { income producing jobs and for the —

25

: Majority of them to have higher i incomes than where they left oft, contributing 40 ratsing | family living standards and reducing ` poverty i low-inconie rural areas Tn the specific s conditions of cach locality and stage of development, these migrant workers contribute to

reducing population -labor-emptoymient pressure in some rural areas This isa fundamental

change in people's lives it terms of material, Spiritual, cultural and social aspects, With

- Negative sides, the issue of emigration also raises some concerns, leading to certain

‘difficulties ¡ In getting to the place of departure It gives rise toa number of complex social

problems as a direct consequence of the free laborers sent to the countryside, such as

gambling, ‘drug addiction, pr ostitution, and gambling problems Same individuals Ariong | : the self-employed | people have been infected with bad habits i in the city and brought the |

above diseases ta the countryside (Lee, 1966) Impact an social org ganizations anid families int rural areas Some foreign workers (both men and women) have families: but due te the | temptations of life j in the city, they 80 Into (prostitution, of cũnwnif adultery, causing the

family to Tại Apart, Besides, it feads tO 4 certain shortage of labor with jobs in the emigration regions Destination, _ positive sides are including , Migration has many positive Ỉ aspects Migration also contributes greatly to regulating labor and solving job needs, especially in big cities In the country Migration, tì which job migration iS an important s

factor contributing to solving the “supply and "demarid" relationship of labor power iit the

market economy To a certain extent, rural-urban Migration contributes fo prom ofing the |

diversified development of economic regions and industries, which 13 significant for

econamie growth andthe development of ur banization ; and industrialization of the country

and terr itories in the city, in terms of employment, the bor force moves freely into the

city to work, they also have “popular” needs, the needs of food and living, Since the transformation of the mechanism until now, the flow of people moving freely inte the city

| has many types, in which the type is looking for seasonal work There j i$ also a free flow

Of people moving to reunite with their famulics, children, brothers, Thus, the movement : of these people j in terns of society has practical significan ce in enstring and i improving the

ematianal heeds of family, relatives and community relations in the population Family

26

reunification is 3 - condition: for stabilizing and increasing household economic

development Negative sides overloading ihe se oft road and housing infra Siructar Ệ works, | affecting the enivironment and reducing urban beanty Seasonal workers who: move freely |

into the: city to find work and work have a fixed time of travel and stay, so wher Moving, most workers do not’ đecfarc theừ temporary residence to the authorities, causing:

difficulties in personnel management, There are a number of complicated social pr obiems such as security and order, Sucml conflicts between migrants and locals, causing some | phenomena of gambling, drug addiction and prestitution The large-scale free rural- urban

migration will increase the pressure on the number of unemployed people in big é cities

312 The climate Che

The wurd "environment 8 0riginates from the Fr crtch word “Bnvironia" which Mas to surround It encompasses bath the abiotic (non-living or Physical) and biotic đ iving) 7 components of a system UN (1997) defined that the environment can he defined as the collective set of external factors that i impact the growth, development, and survival of living ‘organisnis ‘Noman Ệ 201 5} Noman’ S definition of | envir onment, states that at encompasses |

| _ Sử the conditions’ required for an organism's survival and life processes This includes both —

abiotic (physical or non-living) and biotic (living) factors B an vironmental studies offer

fr amewor k to comprehend the earth’ g environntent and the effect of human activities on it _ Cambr idge Dictionary (202 2) define that the environment is characterized as the set of

conditions í in which One lives or works, and the extent to which it affects their emotions or

ability to work effectively According to- NASA (2015), climate tefers tạ the long- term

| statistics of weather pattems Temperature, precipitation, humidity; atmospheric pressure, 7

and wind are some important factors that define climate Most Studies on climate ise

4 temperature andlor precipitation and/or carbon d dloxide etnlissions Climate change is a modification in the usual Weather found i ina location, such aga change in the amount of : annual rainfall or temperature during a specific season Climate change also involves | alterations j in Earth's climate, including changes i in typical temperatures and precipitation Patterns Weather can undergo rapid shifts mi fast a few hours, whereas climate

tr ansformations eccur over extended periods, spanning hundreds or even millions of years, Scientists adopt a comprehensive approach by combining ground, Aer ial, and space v observations with theoretical nodels to analyze and monitor climate: change across past,

present, and future limelines Climate data records SEIVE aS criti cal evidence, revealing key-

indicators of climate change, su ich aS ising sea levels, ice lossat Barth's poles and mountain

| glaciers, global land and ocean temperature ries, Shifts in extreme weather frequency and | intensity, and alterations i in cloud and vegetation cover, among other factors The primary |

- ‘cause af climate change i is primarily attributed to human activities, notably the burning of |

_fossii fuels aiid deforestation, Regenerate response The United Nations Pramework

Nó Convention on Climate Change (UNERCCC, 2014), the latergovernmentat Panel on Climate Change OPcc 2014), and the United States Environmental Protection Agency offer

different definitions of climate changes Overall, climate change is a tultidimensional ‘phenomenon that significantly impacts natural systems, human societies, and global |

sconomies The j increasing levels of greenhouse * gases, particularly carbon dioxide, in the atmosphere cause the Earth's temperature to tise, leading to alterations in weather patterns, |

giobal warming, droughts, floods, Sea level rise, and other consequences that affect bath

21 3 The linemployment | The economicafty active population, ag defined by the ILO, includes all individuals of any g gerider whe contribute to the labor supply for the production of ecanomic goods and | services during a designated period of time The labor force, also known: as the currently

| active population, includes ail individuals above a minimum age requirement who, during

a specified short-term period of either one day of one week, micet the criteria to bé classified ag either employed or unemployed The delinition of employment at the international level,

based on the labor force framework anda br ief time reference periad, differentiates

between † paid employment (including ` apprentices and military personnel) and self : employment (including unpaid family workers, members af producer cooperatives, and individuals ongaged in noncnrark ef production) Twa different sets of criteria ` are

+1

-“established to measure: these hee categories of employment On the contrary, the

unemployed inclide all individuals above the age requir ement for calculating ihe economically active population, who, ‘dur: ing the Specified lime reference peri lod, were not

involved in any paid employment or self einployment a8 per the international definition of

"employment They must algo be available for work and have actively songht paid _ employment or self-employment within a specific recent period aLo, 2003)

The overall unemployment fate is a common gauge used to measure a county y's “ untapped labor force Utiémployment is considered an unfavorable cir camstan ce when

tmployment j is the desired state for individuals ì in the labor force (formerly known as the s | economically active population) Nevertheless short-term unemployment can be necessary | fo adapt lo econamic fluctuations, Additionally, unemployment rates for specific groups,

categorized by age, SEX, occupation, or industry, are ‘useful For identifying vulnerable -# groups of workers and sectors prone to joblessness Although the unemployment rate HS

generally: considered the most informative: fabor market indicator, reflecting the overall cà

_ Ðetformance of the labor market and the economy, i should not.be-seen asa measure of

- economic hardship or well-being, Computed according te internationally recommended | standards, the unemployment rate merely signifies the proportion of the labor force without: |

work but actively seeking employment It does nat provide insights into the economic:

fesources, of unemployed workers or their family members AS a result, its use should bẹ : ‘restricted to measuring fabor utilization and indicating a failure to find employment: |

Additional indicators, including those related to income, are requited to assess economic hardship, This definition is ‘widely accepted by economists worldwide Unemployment |

refers to the circumstance where individuals who are willing anid able to work are unable lo secur E suitable employment, Several definitions of tunernployment exist, including those from reputable org panizations, The Intemational Labor Organization GLO) defines unemployment as the number of “people of working a age Who are without work butwho are cử available for and actively seeking employment, Unemployment, as defined by the United |

States Bur vaut of Labor Statistics Ss BL 3, refers to the percentage of the labor force achively 7

39

seeking employment aud available to start work but at currently without a job CU S Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2015) Unemployment, according to the Organization for Economic cc Jooperation and Devel lopnient {OECD}, is the percentage of the ] labor force that is | avatlable for and actively Seekime ‘employment but currently: without work (OECD, 2022) |

Overall, unemployment i is an important economic mdicator that reflects the health of the

labor market and the overall level of economic atHvit y Hig igh levels af unemployment can

have significant social and economic consequences, including increased poverty, reduced, _

consumer spendin 8 and lower economic er owth, Governments and other organizations use” arrange of policies and progr ams to address unéinployment, such aS job training programs, job search assi stance, and economic stimulus measures |

220 Theories of migration

By doing : SO, We can make sure that many levels of migration such 2 as imcro-level,

meso-level and macro-level Theori i€s of migr ation n defined by level of analysis following

3g

Table 2.2 Theories of migration defined by level of analysis

cà Neoclassical fMcro- ~ Tnstitutional theoy - Migration as a system -

migration theory ¬ Network theory | _~ Đuai Thạc market - Behavioral models oS Cumulative | | theory sẽ

| - Theory of social _ causation - W orld systems theory

systems ` ~ New economics of Mobility transition | | 1" Labor Migration "

- Source: | oe Pater (2000) -

Ăn this dissertation, we wish to examine i in the macto-level of migration in the Asian - countries, We especially discover the relationship between the cuvir onm ental degradation,

int ernational j immigration flows and temployment ¡ 12 Asian n countries with the newest data

by Suitable methods tờ tesi the data a2 21 Laws of migration by Ravenstein (385

Ravenst fea (1885) formulated a set of migration "Laws" that became 2 comer stane for contemporary migration theories, In the 1880s, Ravenstein developed a set-of mig eration | 1 “laws” that established the foundation for contemporary migration theories Ravenstein-

| described the magnitude and direction of migration in his work on the “laws of migration ¿ ˆ | and explamed migration movements in relation to oppor tunities and constraints, Almost all

Models of migration paiterns begin with Ravenstein’s basic laws To determine patterns of

Jmevement, Ravenstein compared Cons data collected H 187 i and 1881, the most recent

31

available at the lime He argued that migrants MOVE, from low-opportunity areas to high - opportunity areas, with the choice being influenced by distance and destination location, | Shorter destinations are preferable, and rural migrants generally move te nearby towns before progressing fo larger cities ina Step-by-step process, Ravenstein also contended that _the primary drivers of migration are economic, with a shift from agricultur al regions to

industrial and commercial areas, Em Georg Ravenstein, a German- -Engiish geographer, is known for his work on Migration patterns and laws In his 1885 paper “The Laws of

Migration,” he outlined several principles that he observed about migration pattems

_ Ravenstein’s laws of migration are as follows: “The mai ofity of migrants move onty a short : distance, The further a destination is from the Origa, the less lik ely people are to migrate

there Mi gration occUrs itt a series of steps, with migrants offen moving from rural areas to - | larger towns and cities before Moving to even larger cities or other countries There j isa

flow of Migrants in opposite directions with people moving from areas of high population | densify to areas of low population density and counterflows uf people returming to their:

home areas Urban areas are more alfractive to migrants than rural areas, offering plore job “

7 opportunities, higher wages, and better living standards Women are more likely to migrate

than men, but men are inore likely to travel ionger dist ANCES, Women tend te migrate for RB amily reasons, while mei tend td migrate for economic Feasons, Migration i increases wilh | economic ‘development, as more People can afford tạ migrate, Despite being over a century

old, Ravenstein's faws of migration remain influentiat int 1 the study: of migration patterns and are still relevant today,

This theory pì ays 8 role in the devetopment of migration theory, which 18 reflected | | in the work “Law of Mier ation” đa ò Migration) Ravenstein: studied population

mov ements in England and he found that mipration was related to population size, density and distance traveled, Thereby Ravensteia Came to develop Beneralized th eories, many of which are stil} relewant today: Most Jnovements take place over short distances: Females | predominate i in the nuniber of f people traveling over short distances For each migeation

33

-| flow, there is reverse Inigration, Mieration from remote areas to cities Usually t fakes Place -| int Sages: The main motive of migration is the economic one,

Ravenstein's generalized migration theories, deawn from the population laws |

presented by him, are generalized as follows: Firstly, the theory has fully demonstrated that _ large migration sroups move only short distances, atid the consequent total change o1 | populati on -disp] acement creates migration flows towards commercial centers and |

| tidustrial zones that can: attract nigrants Secondly, the result of this migration, although taking place on a national scale, is limited by the altraction processes, 1Í sHlÍ takes place

according to the following mechanism: the popuifation of a country will quickly move to |

the acighboring areas, the towns and towns with a fast growth rate, reside there, the

population » Bap in the rural arcas will be compensated by the migration of peaple from the

a most remote areas to the more dynamic urban areas The number of Migrants who are - egisteted int a given center of attraction will stow down with 8 gap proportional fo the | original | population in the place where they have left Thirdly; the process of ditation (divergence) is the reverse process of the process of attraction and exhibits similar | characteristics Fourth, cach large migr ation often generates a reverse migration te

compensate Fifth, migrants make long distance moves with preference to one of the major "

industrial and commercial centers, Sixth, people nho are originally from cities and towns are less mébile than peaple in rural areas of the country Seventh, women are often more -

, likely ta migrate than men In contemporary migration studies, researchers often employ more comprehensive and context-specific theories that account for the complexities of migration, including ‘push-pull factors, structural ‘conditions , and individual tmotivations Ww hile Ravenstein’ 8 — Work was foundational, hat should be viewed ag a starting point rather than a comprehensive

explanation of migration dynamics i in today's * coniplex and interconnected world 2.2 2 The dual-sector model ney Lewis (1 (1959

33