the impact of the russia ukraine conflict on vietnams tourism industry

Inparticular, due to the impact of the pandemic and conflict, the number of international touristsin general and Russian tourists, in particular, has decreased continuously.. Introductio

VIETNAM GENERAL CONFEDERATION OF LABOR

TON DUC THANG UNIVERSITY

FACULTY OF SOCIAL SCIENCES AND HUMANITIES

MID-TERM PRESENTATION COURSE: TOURISM PLANNING

TOPIC:

THE IMPACT OF THE RUSSIA-UKRAINE CONFLICT

ON VIETNAM'S TOURISM INDUSTRY

Lecture: MR HA THE LINH Students:

DƯƠNG CHÍ TOÀN – 320H0244

TẠ NGUYỄN THỤY KHA – 320H0294 HUỲNH HOÀNG LONG - 320H0303 VĂN NGỌC ĐAN THANH – 320H0344

HO CHI MINH CITY, MARCH 2023

Table of content:

I

Introduction -II Literature

review -2.1

Background -2.2

Theories: -III

Results -4.1 Tourism in Vietnam before the influence of the Covid pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine

conflict -4.1.1 The period before the COVID-19

pandemic -4.1.2 After the pandemic - 12

4.2 Impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on Vietnam's economy and tourism market: -15

4.2.1 On the economy - 15

4.2.2 On Vietnam’s tourism: - 21

4.3 Opportunities of Vietnam tourism in the period of conflict between Russia - Ukraine -24

IV Discussion -25

4.1 Russian tourist market - 26

4.1.1 Travel behavior and trends of international tourists after covid and during the conflict period of Russia and Ukraine. -26

4.1.2 The importance of the Russian visitor market -26

4.2 Vietnam's tourism policy in the post-covid-19 context and the Russia-Ukraine conflict: - 28

V Policies and solutions to recover and develop the inbound market in Vietnam -30

Focus on exploiting the available market: - 30

Exploiting potential markets: - 33

Issuing visa exemption policy - 34

Changing the way to approach customers: - 35

Investment in tourism infrastructure: - 36

Applying digital technology in marketing: -37

VI Conclusions -39References -40

ABSTRACT: The world has gone through an extremely stressful period due to the impact of

Covid-19 Under that context, Vietnam cannot avoid bearing the negative impacts and heavy

losses caused by the pandemic Specifically, in early 2020, for the first time in Vietnam'shistory, recorded a decrease in domestic and international tourists Not fully recovered fromthe pandemic, Vietnam continues to suffer the impacts of the Russia-Ukraine conflict Inparticular, due to the impact of the pandemic and conflict, the number of international tourists

in general and Russian tourists, in particular, has decreased continuously Facing thatimpact, the government and related parties have also actively issued policies to createconditions for inbound tourism to recover In general, the above context has caused negativeimpacts on Vietnam's tourism but also created many opportunities for Vietnam's tourism tohave many new changes

Keywords: Russia-Ukraine conflict, post-Covid-19, Vietnam's tourism industry, inboundtourism

I Introduction

According to a survey and investigation by the World Tourism Organization (UNWTO), for acountry with a developing or developed economy, tourism has become an indispensable needfor most people

However, since the end of 2019 - the beginning of 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic hasexploded and spread to most countries in the world, causing the tourism industry to besignificantly affected not only in Vietnam but in the whole world In Vietnam, the beginning

of summer 2021 is considered the peak tourist season in many places This is also consideredthe 4th outbreak of the epidemic, the period that has the most impact on the smokeless tourismindustry, causing the largest drop in tourist arrivals to date In particular, the decline in thenumber of tourists to Vietnam has affected many tourism service businesses includingrestaurants, hotels, transportation services,

Besides, in February 2022 a declaration of war between Russian President VladimirPutin announcing the opening of a military operation in Ukraine led to the conflict betweenthe two countries serious impact on the global economy This war led to many economicthreats and short-term and long-term consequences, the threat of shortages, disruptions in thesupply chain of Vietnam, causing inflation in many countries such as the US, Europe andVietnam increased and the prices of goods continued to rise Those are the reasons that lead tothe fact that most countries in the world and Vietnam have indirectly suffered damage to the

economy in general the tourism industry in particular from the war between Russia Ukraine According to an interview with Mr Nguyen Duc Tan - General Director of AnexVietnam Trade and Tourism Co., Ltd., said that about the two countries war, which affects thetourism industry as follows: Russia - Ukraine devalued the ruble, causing the company to lose

-a number of Russi-an customers in the mid-r-ange -and low-end segments, while others h-aveshelved their intention to travel for fear of economic difficulties."

Since then, some questions about the impact of the covid pandemic and the Ukraine conflict on Vietnam's tourism or what to do to recover and develop the internationaltourism market in the context of the Russian conflict - Ukraine and the lack of a large source

Russia-of visitors from Russia will be mentioned and resolved in this report

II Literature review

2.1 Background

It can be said that the political as well as cultural and social context has causedsignificant negative impacts on global tourism in general and Vietnam tourism in particular.Specifically, the covid-19 pandemic along with the political conflict between Russia andUkraine has upheaved and caused negative effects that tourism in the world has faced untilnow

The World Health Organization (WHO) officially declared COVID-19 a pandemic onMarch 11, 2020 The pandemic is predicted to have many sociocultural, political, andeconomic impacts Clearly, the global tourism industry is highly vulnerable to such crises andthe impact on global travel destinations will be profound and long-lasting Specifically, asignificant 78% drop in the share of global tourists and the loss of about 120 million jobs led

to a loss of $1.2 trillion in export revenue This shows that the global economic damagecaused by the pandemic is enormous, especially in destinations whose economic systems arelargely dependent on the business of tourism

The tourism industry in Asia has also suffered heavily during the first outbreaks of theCOVID-19 pandemic More specifically, many businesses are unemployed, bankrupt, lostrevenue and budget deficits because of the severe impacts brought about by the COVID-19pandemic In the study "How much did the Tourism Industry Lost? Estimating Earning Loss

of Tourism in the Philippines" by Raffy S Centeno and Judith P Marquez in 2020, the impact

of COVID 19 on the national tourism business in the Philippines was estimated to cause losses

of more than $7 billion due to the pandemic crisis that lasted until July 2020 In addition,many Asian countries consider tourism as a key economic sector such as Thailand, SouthKorea, Indonesia, China, Japan, also suffered the severe consequences of the pandemic.Besides the Covid pandemic, the recent intense conflict between Russia and Ukrainehas also shaken the tourism industry worldwide The war has added to uncertainty for theglobal economy, already reeling from the Covid-19 pandemic, leading to record public debt,

an inflation-driven cost-of-living crisis and labor shortages in essential industries Theeconomic sanctions against Russia come as barriers to world trade increase following an era ofrapid globalization Sweeping Western economic sanctions against Russia, especially theremoval of Russian banks from the global financial system, have caused the exchange rate ofthe Russian ruble against the dollar to plummet and rapidly This will negatively affect theincome of the Russian people, how they spend and their plans to travel abroad On the otherhand, the fact that the Central Bank of Russia also introduced restrictions on individualstransacting in dollars, will make it difficult for Russians to travel abroad

In many Middle Eastern countries, the tourism industry plays an extremely importantrole in driving economic growth, creating jobs, and providing a large supply of foreignexchange After controlling the pandemic, countries in the region are optimistic about therecovery of tourism, especially with the lifting of travel restrictions of many countries.However, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has exacerbated difficulties for the tourism industry inMiddle Eastern countries, especially after the damage caused by the Covid-19 pandemic Theconflict took place, posing a series of problems affecting tourism in the region, specifically:reducing the number of visitors from Eastern Europe, travel activities from Russia andUkraine to Middle Eastern tourist destinations facing many difficulties,

As one of the countries that considers Russian tourists as the main market forexploitation, Vietnam, Thailand and some countries in the region have been severely affected

by the conflict Bhunanan Patanasin, chairman of the Pattaya Business and TourismAssociation (PBTA), said Russian and Ukrainian visitors are the "pillars" of the tourismindustry in Pattaya, Phuket, etc When the conflict took place, Thai tourism was also partlyaffected, specifically the number of Russian visitors to Thailand also decreased significantly.Especially Thailand – one of the countries actively in introducing policies to attractinternational tourists, this is one of the great influences on this service industry of theircountry

2.2 Theories:

Inbound tourism: In-bound tours are trips to visit and explore the natural beauty and people

of that country where foreigners act as tourists They are people who live and work abroad,visit that country and stay for a certain period of time In addition, "Inbound Tour" is alsounderstood as a tour to explore the host country for international visitors (also known asInbound visitors)

According to UNWTO - World Tourism Organization, Inbound tourism is a tourist activity of

no less than 24 hours and no more than 1 year when arriving outside their home country Andthe purpose of the trip is not to work for a long time, but to rest - relax - leisure

Inbound tourist: The definition of a tourist of an international nature was formed at the Rome

Conference organized by the United Nations in 1963: "An international tourist is a person whostays temporarily abroad and lives outside their permanent residence for a period of 24 hours

or more."

According to the Vietnam Tourism Law: "A tourist is a person who travels or combinestourism, except for the case of studying, working or practicing a profession to receive income

at the place of destination"

Tourism's behavior: According to the American Marketing Association, "it is the interaction

between environmental stimuli and human cognition and behavior through which peoplechange their lives." Or, "consumer behavior is a process that allows an individual or group ofpeople to choose, purchase, use, or discard a product/service, existing thoughts, experience, oraccumulation, in order to satisfy their needs or desires."

According to Philip Kotler, "are the specific behaviors of an individual when makingdecisions to purchase, use, and dispose of a product or service." Travel consumer behaviorTravel consumers: According to Assoc Dr Nguyen Van Manh, tourism consumer "is a buyer

of tourism products to satisfy personal needs and desires They are the last consumers of thetourism product created by the production process A travel consumer can be an individual, ahousehold or a group of (collective) people."

Tourism consumer behavior: "is the whole action that travelers/tourists perform in theprocess of searching, buying, using and evaluating tourism products to satisfy the needs oftheir trip".

III Results

4.1 Tourism in Vietnam before the influence of the Covid pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict

4.1.1 The period before the COVID-19 pandemic

● Tourism's contribution to the country's GDP

Before the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, the contribution of the tourism industry

to the country's GDP was not small Specifically, in the period 2011 - 2019, Vietnam's tourismindustry achieved encouraging achievements, making an important contribution to promotingsocio-economic development, and enhancing the country's position and image 2019 is the10th year in a row that the tourism industry has had a high and stable growth rate since theglobal economic-financial crisis in 2009 Total revenue from tourists and the tourismindustry's contribution to GDP also increased significantly If in 1990, the total revenue fromtourism only reached VND 1,340 billion, by 2019, that figure will be VND 755,000 billion(equivalent to USD 32.8 billion), of which the total revenue from international tourists willreach 421,000 billion VND (18.3 billion USD), and total revenue from domestic touristsreached 334 trillion VND (14.5 billion USD)

Graph 1: Graph of total revenue from tourists, period 1990-2019 (billion VND)

In 2011, total revenue from tourists was only VND 130,000 billion, contributing 3.1%

to GDP By 2019, the total revenue from tourists has increased to 726,000 billion VND (anincrease of more than 5.5 times compared to 2011), the average growth rate for the wholeperiod of 2011 - 2019 is 24%/year, the contribution of tourism in GDP reached 9.2%.Thereby, it can be affirmed that tourism is gradually moving towards becoming a spearheadeconomic sector according to the target of Resolution 08-NQ/TW dated January 16, 2017 ofthe Politburo

Graph 2: Graph of tourism's direct contribution to GDP (%) in the period 2015-2019

Along with the cause of national renewal, the tourism industry has risen and grownrapidly in both scale and quality, affirming its important role and position in the economy Thesystem of tourist accommodation establishments nationwide is invested more and morestrongly, in 1990 there were only 350 establishments with 16,700 sadly, by the end of 2019,the whole country had 30,000 tourist accommodation establishments with 650,000 rooms.Thus, after more than 30 years of renovation and opening to integrate with the worldeconomy, the system of tourist accommodation establishments of Vietnam's tourism industryhas increased 85 times in number of establishments and 39 times in number of rooms Theaverage growth rate of rooms for the whole period 2011 - 2019 is about 12.3%/year, theaverage occupancy rate of rooms is about 59%/year Types of accommodation are increasinglydiverse, from a system of high-class accommodation facilities (4-5 star hotels, luxury touristapartments, tourist villas) to a system of hotels ranked from 1-3 stars, tourist motels, houseswith rooms for tourists to rent (homestay), tourist villages, cruise ships for touristaccommodation,

Graph 3: Statistics of tourist accommodation establishments before the COVID-19pandemic in the period 2011-2019

The team of international travel business enterprises is growing stronger, in 2019 therewere 2,667 enterprises in the whole country, compared to 1990 there were only 4 enterprises,

in 1996 there were 76 enterprises, in 2005 there were 428 enterprises By the end of 2019, thewhole country had 27,683 tour guides, including 17,825 international tour guides, 9,134domestic tour guides and 724 on-site tour guides Regarding international tourists, if in 1990there were only 250,000 international visitors to Vietnam, in 2019 it will reach more than 18million arrivals, an increase of 72 times compared to 1990 The annual growth rate usually

reaches 2 numbers, especially in the period 2015-2019 reached 22.7% per year Along withthe country's development in the period of opening up and international integration,Vietnamese people's lives are increasingly improved, the demand for and ability to travel isincreasing, contributing to improving the spiritual life and promote economic activity in thecountry In 2019, Vietnam Tourism was honored to receive a series of prestigious awards fromprestigious international organizations around the world The most prominent are the awardspresented by the World Travel Awards such as: World's leading heritage destination; LeadingGolf Destination in the World and Asia; Asia's top destination; Asia's Leading CulturalDestination and Asia's Leading Culinary Destination Along with that, there are manyprestigious regional and world awards for hotels, resorts, tourist attractions, restaurants, travelcompanies, airlines…

● Tourist market

Regarding the total revenue from tourists, in 2019 Vietnam's tourism reached 755trillion VND (equivalent to 32.8 billion USD), while in 1990 it reached 1,340 billion VND Ofwhich, total revenue from international tourists reached VND 421,000 billion ($18.3 billion),total revenue from domestic tourists reached VND 334 trillion ($14.5 billion) Tourism's directcontribution to GDP is also increasing 2015 reached 6.3%; 2016: 6.9%; 2017; 7.9%; in 2018:8.3% and in 2019: 9.2% With continuous efforts to improve quality, Vietnam has become anattractive destination in the world, respected by international organizations and press honoredwith prestigious regional and international awards

Graph 4: Chart of the number of international visitors to Vietnam fluctuated strongly

in the first quarter of 2020

Generaly in the first 3 months of 2019, there were 4,500,114 international visitors toVietnam, up 7% over the same period in 2018 Many tourist markets grew, especially key

tourist markets Vietnam's calendar The Northeast Asian market with Korea reached1,107,794 arrivals, up 24.1%; Taiwan reached 207,095 turns, up 26%; Japan reached 233,355turns, up 8.3% The Southeast Asian market has Thailand with the strongest growth, reaching124,588 turns, up 49.3%; Malaysia reached 143,629 arrivals, up 11.1% The European markethas Russia as a prominent market, reaching 215,618 arrivals, up 6.2%; Sweden reached 27,969turns, up 10.4%; Britain reached 89,879 turns, up 4.7%; France reached 87,322 turns, up4.1%; Germany reached 72,211 turns, up 6.2%; Italy reached 22,927 arrivals, up 10.3% The

US market also achieved an impressive growth rate with 219,700 arrivals, up 7.9% TheAustralian market reached 108,522 turns Also in the first 3 months of the year, domestictourists reached 24.9 million visitors, of which 12.6 million visitors stayed Total revenuefrom tourists reached VND 175,100 billion, up 8.35% over the same period in 2018

● Travel trends before the pandemic

With such rapid growth of domestic and international visitors to Vietnam, tourism hasbecome one of the main pillars of international trade and an important source of income formany developing countries UNWTO forecasts that global tourism will grow by about 3-4%

in 2019

Along with the rapidly increasing number of tourists, the trend of different types oftourism has changed significantly The choice of tourists around the globe shows eco-friendlytourism types such as ecotourism, community tourism, resort tourism and tourism servinghealth and beauty needs becoming more and more popular It is forecasted that by thebeginning of 2019, tourists traveling for the purpose of visiting, health and religion willaccount for 31% of the total number of tourists; for the purpose of sightseeing, convalescence,entertainment and entertainment, accounting for 54%; with work and professional purposesaccounting for 15%

In fact, the world tourism industry is witnessing the development of many othertourism trends such as self-designed tours, adventure tourism, experiential travel, leisuretourism with modern equipment The trend of tourists is more interested in the quality ofexperience at the destination instead of the destination image alone, guests will stay more days

if the destination has many interesting experiences and vice versa In the past, beach tourismwas popular, but in recent years, it has turned to mountain resorts and experiencing localculture New generation tourists are people who love the environment, respect and areresponsible for the environment, so the trend of looking for unique cultural values and pristine