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VIETNAM NATIONAL UNIVERSITY, HANOI VIETNAM JAPAN UNIVERSITY NGUYEN VIET CAN ASSESSMENT OF THE EU’S CARBON BORDER ADJUSTMENT MECHANISM (CBAM) IMPACTS ON VIETNAM’S IRON AND STEEL SECTOR MASTER’S THESIS VIETNAM NATIONAL UNIVERSITY, HANOI VIETNAM JAPAN UNIVERSITY NGUYEN VIET CAN ASSESSMENT OF THE EU’S CARBON BORDER ADJUSTMENT MECHANISM (CBAM) IMPACTS ON VIETNAM’S IRON AND STEEL SECTOR MAJOR: CLIMATE CHANGE AND DEVELOPMENT CODE: 8900201.02QTD RESEARCH SUPERVISOR: PROF DR TAMURA MAKOTO Hanoi, 2023 PLEDGE I assure that this thesis is the result of my own research and has not been published The use of other research’s results and other documents must comply with the regulations The citations and references to documents, books, research paper, and websites must be in the list of references of the thesis Author of the thesis Nguyen Viet Can ACKNOWLEDGEMENT First, I would like to express my sincere gratitude and appreciation to my supervisor Prof Dr Makoto Tamura for his invaluable guidance, support, and encouragement during my study in the Master’s Program in Climate Change and Development (MCCD) at Vietnam-Japan University and the completion of the thesis His expertise, deep insights, and constructive feedback have greatly contributed to the success of my research project Second, I would like to thank my colleagues at Energy and Environment Consultancy Joint Stock Company for their valuable support, cooperation, and inspiration during my study, especially their permission to use the data for this thesis Their professionalism, dedication, and contribution in greenhouse gas emission reduction in Vietnam have motivated me to pursue a career in this field Furthermore, I am also grateful to my classmates in MCCD6 for their collaboration, friendship, and sharing of ideas and experiences Their diverse perspectives and contributions have widened my horizons and enriched my learning experience Last but not least, I would like to acknowledge the immense support and love from my family and friends who have always been there for me and cheered me up through ups and downs Thank you all for your kindness and generosity! TABLE OF CONTENTS List of tables i List of figures ii List of abbreviations iii Chapter : Introduction 1.1 Climate change and carbon pricing and CBAM 1.2 The rationale of the research 1.3 Research questions and objectives 1.4 Structure of the thesis Chapter : Literature review 2.1 Overview of the EU’s CBAM 2.1.1 What is CBAM? 2.1.2 CBAM scope 2.1.3 CBAM implementation timeline 2.1.4 How CBAM works 10 2.2 Research on the impacts of CBAM 11 2.1.5 Research on the impacts of CBAM in the world 11 2.1.6 Research on the impacts of CBAM in Vietnam 13 2.3 Overview of Vietnam’s carbon pricing policies 14 2.4 Iron and steel sector in Vietnam 15 2.4.1 Production 15 2.4.2 Import/export 16 2.4.3 Technology and GHG emissions by the sector 17 2.4.4 GHG emission mitigation for iron and steel production in Vietnam’s updated NDC in 2022 18 2.4.5 Challenges faced by the steel sector in Vietnam on its decarbonization pathway 21 Chapter : Methodology and data 23 3.1 Methodology 23 3.1.1 Overall methodology 23 3.1.2 Methodology for the calculation of carbon intensity of the iron and steel sector in Vietnam 24 3.1.3 Methodology for scenario establishment 26 3.2 Data collection process 30 3.2.1 Data on energy consumption and production output of the steel sector in Vietnam 30 3.2.2 Data on production, export and carbon price in the EU and other countries 33 Chapter : Results and discussion 34 4.1 Results the calculation of carbon intensity of the iron and steel sector in Vietnam 34 4.2 Comparison of Vietnam’s iron and steel sector’s carbon intensity with others 36 4.2.1 Comparison with the world average 36 4.2.2 Comparison with EU average 36 4.2.3 Comparison with EU prominent trading partners for iron and steel products 37 4.3 CBAM cost and competitiveness of steel sector in Vietnam under BAU scenario 38 4.4 CBAM cost and impacts on steel sector in Vietnam under NDC and Ambitious scenarios 40 4.5 Strategies for steel companies in Vietnam 43 4.6 Recommendations for the steel sector and policymakers in Vietnam 44 Chapter : Conclusion 46 5.1 Summary of main findings 46 5.2 Limitations and suggestions for further studies 48 References .50 Appendix 1: Questionnaire form (English translation) 57 Appendix 2: Interface of the calculation tool 60 Appendix 3: List of emission factors 62 Appendix 4: Calculation of the potential CBAM payments and impacts .64 Appendix 5: Matrix of learning results and outcomes for the master’s thesis 66 [TNN1] LIST OF TABLES Table 1-1: Research objectives, tasks, corresponding outputs and outcomes Table 2-1: Vietnam’s steel production outputs period 2017-2021 15 Table 2-2: Mitigation measures for the steel sector in Vietnam’s updated NDC 2022 19 Table 3-1: Summary of parameters in scenarios 29 Table 3-2: List of companies answering the survey questionnaires 31 Table 3-3: Coverage of the returned questionnaires 33 Table 4-1: Results of the GHG accounting for companies providing full data 34 Table 4-2: Comparison of the carbon intensities between Vietnam’s steel and the world average values 36 Table 4-3: Comparison of emission intensities between Vietnam and EU 37 Table 4-4: Comparison of emission intensities between Vietnam and EU’s main trading partners for steel products 38 i LIST OF FIGURES Figure 2-1: CBAM scopes (covered products, emissions, and types of GHGs) Figure 2-2: Phase-out of free EUA and phase-in of CBAM and its implementation timeline Figure 2-3: Share of export markets of Vietnam’s steel products in 2022 16 Figure 2-4: Export of steel products from Vietnam to the EU by volume (million tons) and value (billion USD) 17 Figure 3-1: Logical framework of the thesis 24 Figure 3-2: Carbon intensity of Vietnam's power grid period 2017-2021 26 Figure 3-3: Determinants of CBAM certificate price 27 Figure 4-1: Competitiveness loss index of Vietnam's steel products under CBAM (2026-2034) 39 Figure 4-2: Current carbon prices in China, South Korea, and Japan 39 Figure 4-3: Competitiveness loss index of EU’s main trading partners for steel products under CBAM (2026-2034) 40 Figure 4-4: Competitiveness loss indices of Vietnam's steel products under different scenarios and other countries (2026-2034) 41 Figure 4-5: Share of total CBAM payments to total export value of steel to the EU 42 Figure 4-6: Share of total CBAM payments to total export value of Vietnam's steel sector 42 ii LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ASEAN AR BAU BF-BOF CAGR CBA CBAM CCR CGE CO2 Co., Ltd COP EAF EF ERCST ETS EU EU ETS EUA EVFTA GDP GHG GSO HRC IF IPCC ISO JSC LDC LEP MOF MOIT MONRE N2 O NDC OECD PFCs Association of Southeast Asian Nations Assessment Report Business-As-Usual Blast furnace-basic oxygen furnace Compound Annual Growth Rate Carbon border adjustment Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism Climate change response Computable General Equilibrium Carbon dioxide Company limited Conference of the parties Electric arc furnace Emission factor European Roundtable on Climate Change and Sustainable Transition Emission trading scheme European 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On the competitiveness and welfare impacts of the EU’s proposed carbon border adjustment mechanism Energy Policy, 162, 112802 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2022.112802 56 APPENDIX 1: QUESTIONNAIRE FORM (ENGLISH TRANSLATION) QUESTIONNAIRE FOR ENTEPRISE This survey is conducted by Green Climate Innovation Company Ltd to study impact assessment of European Union's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism which will apply on products imported to the EU The collected data will only be used for research purpose The name of the responder and the enterprise will be confidential A1 IDENTIFICATION INFORMATION A1.1 Name of enterprise A1.2 Address: Name Code Province/ Municipality District (provincial city, town) Ward/ Commune: Village/ Hamlet (building number, street): A1.3 Phone: A1.4 Email : A2 INFORMATION ON ENERGY CONSUMPTION OF ENTERPRISE 2017 Type of energy Code Unit A B Electricity 01 Coal 02 C 1000 KWh Ton Crude oil 03 1000 Amount 2018 2019 2020 2021 Consumption Consumption Consumption Consumption Consumption value Amount value Amount value Amount value Amount value (mil dong) (mil dong) (mil dong) (mil dong) (mil dong) 10 57 QUESTIONNAIRE FOR ENTEPRISE This survey is conducted by Green Climate Innovation Company Ltd to study impact assessment of European Union's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism which will apply on products imported to the EU The collected data will only be used for research purpose The name of the responder and the enterprise will be confidential tons Petrol 04 Fuel oil 05 LPG 06 Gas 07 1000 litre 1000 litre Ton 1000 m3 A3 INFORMATION ON BUSINESS AND PRODUCTION ACTIVITY OF ENTERPRISE A3.1 Information on products (goods and services) of enterprise 2017 Description Product of goods code Unit VCPA 2018 and Inventory fifth level services A B C 2018 Amount Amount Produced during the year Sold during the year Sales revenue (mil dong) Inventory Produced during the year Sold during the year Sales revenue (mil dong) 2019 Description Product of goods classification Unit VCPA 2018 and Inventory fifth level services A B C Description Product Unit 2020 Amount Amount Produced during the year Sold during the year Sales revenue (mil dong) Inventory Produced during the year Sold during the year Sales revenue (mil dong) 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 2021 58 QUESTIONNAIRE FOR ENTEPRISE This survey is conducted by Green Climate Innovation Company Ltd to study impact assessment of European Union's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism which will apply on products imported to the EU The collected data will only be used for research purpose The name of the responder and the enterprise will be confidential of goods and services A classification VCPA 2018 fifth level B Amount C Inventory Produced during the year Sold during the year Sales revenue (mil dong) 17 18 19 20 A4.1 Full name of responder A4.2 Role in the enterprise A4.3 Phone: A5.4 Email: THANK YOU FOR PARTICIPATING IN THE SURVEY 59 APPENDIX 2: INTERFACE OF THE CALCULATION TOOL ISO14404universal sheet_1st year (Please fillin colored cells) Year of Assessment yyyy Crude Steel Production t Energy Consumption Source Unit 103m3(stp) Natural gas - 0 - 0 - 0 - 3 - 0 - 3 - 0 - 3 - 0 - 3 10 m (stp) - 0 - m3 - 0 - Light oil m - 0 - Kerosene m3 - 0 - 10 m (stp) Blast furnace gas 10 m (stp) 10 m (stp) Town gas Other gas ( 10 m (stp) ) Heavy oil LPG Solid fuel Calculation results of CO2 emission Direct Upstream Credit t-CO2/Plant/y Calculation results of energy consumption Direct Upstream Credit GJ/Plant/y BOF gas Liquid fuel Sold Delivered Coke oven gas Gas fuel Purchased Procured t - 0 - Coking coal dry t - 0 - BF injection coal dry t - 0 - Sinter/BOF coal dry t - 0 - Steam coal dry t - 0 - Coke for the facilities with BF process dry t 0 0 0 Coke for the facilities without BF process dry t - 0 - Charcoal dry t - 0 - EAF coal dry t - 0 - dry t - 0 - SR/DRI coal Other coal ( ) dry t Limestone dry t - - 0 - Burnt lime t - 0 - 0 dry t - - 0 - t - 0 - 0 Crude dolomite Auxiliary Burnt dolomite material 60 103m3(stp) Nitrogen Argon Oxygen Electricity Product and byproduct Others - 0 - 0 - 0 3 10 m (stp) - 0 - 0 t - - - 0 MWh - 0 - 0 Steam t - 0 - 0 Pellets for the facilities with Iron making process t - 0 - 0 Pellets for the facilities without Iron making process t - - - - - - Sinter t - 0 - 0 Hot metal for the facilities with Iron making process t - 0 0 t - - - - t - 0 0 Hot metal for the facilities without Iron making process Ferrouscontainin Cold iron for the facilities with Iron making process g material Cold iron for the facilities without Iron making process Alloys 10 m (stp) EAF graphite electrodes Energy carriers - t - - - - Gas-based DRI for the facilities with Iron making process t - 0 0 Gas-based DRI for the facilities without Iron making process t - - - - Coal-based DRI for the facilities with Iron making process t - 0 0 Coal-based DRI for the facilities without Iron making process t - - - - Ferro-nickel t - - - - Ferro-chromium t - - - - Ferro-molybdenum t - - - - CO2 for external use t - - - - Coal tar t - 0 - Benzole (coal light oil) t - 0 - — 0 0 0 0 0 Other emission sources Sub Total 0 Total Energy Consumption GJ/y Total CO2 Emission t-CO2/y Intensity GJ/y/t-crude steel Intensity t-CO2/y/t-crude steel 61 APPENDIX 3: LIST OF EMISSION FACTORS CO2 Emission Factor Energy Consumption Factor Direct energy consumption factor (Kt,d,E) Energy Consumption Source Natural gas Coke oven gas Blast furnace gas BOF gas Gas fuel Credit energy consumption factor (Kt,c,E) Direct emission factor (Kt,d,CO2) Upstream emission factor (Kt,u,CO2) Credit emission factor (Kt,c,CO2) Unit 103m3(stp) GJ/unit GJ/unit t-CO2/unit t-CO2/unit t-CO2/unit 35.900 N/A 35.900 2.014 N/A 2.014 19.000 N/A 19.000 0.836 N/A 0.977 3 3.300 N/A 3.300 0.891 N/A 0.170 3 8.400 N/A 8.400 1.512 N/A 0.432 3 35.900 N/A 35.900 2.014 N/A 2.014 10 m (stp) 10 m (stp) 10 m (stp) ) GJ/unit 10 m (stp) Town gas Other gas ( Upstream energy consumption factor (Kt,u,E) 103m3(stp) N/A N/A Heavy oil m3 37.700 N/A 37.700 2.907 N/A 2.907 Light oil m3 35.100 N/A 35.100 2.601 N/A 2.601 Liquid fuel Kerosene LPG 34.700 N/A 34.700 2.481 N/A 2.481 t 47.300 N/A 47.300 2.985 N/A 2.985 m Coking coal dry t 32.200 N/A 32.200 3.059 N/A 3.059 10 BF injection coal dry t 31.100 N/A 31.100 2.955 N/A 2.955 11 Sinter/BOF coal dry t 29.300 N/A 29.300 2.784 N/A 2.784 12 Steam coal dry t 25.900 N/A 25.900 2.461 N/A 2.461 dry t 30.100 4.000 34.100 3.257 0.224 3.481 Coke for the steelworks without ironmaking process of essential coke use dry t 30.100 N/A 30.100 3.257 N/A 3.257 Charcoal dry t 18.800 N/A 18.800 0.000 N/A 0.000 EAF coal dry t 30.100 N/A 30.100 3.257 N/A 3.257 dry t 31.100 N/A 31.100 2.955 N/A 2.955 13 Coke for the steelworks with ironmaking process of essential coke use Solid fuel 14 SR/DRI coal Other coal ( ) 62 Auxiliary material 15 Limestone 16 Burnt lime 17 Crude dolomite 18 Burnt dolomite 19 Nitrogen N/A 0.440 t N/A 4.500 4.500 N/A 0.950 0.950 dry t N/A N/A 0.000 0.471 N/A 0.471 t N/A 4.500 4.500 N/A 1.100 1.100 103m3(stp) N/A 2.000 2.000 N/A 0.103 0.103 3 10 m (stp) N/A 2.000 2.000 N/A 0.103 0.103 103m3(stp) N/A 6.900 6.900 N/A 0.355 0.355 t N/A N/A N/A 3.663 0.650 3.663 MWh N/A 9.800 9.800 N/A calibrated calibrated t N/A 3.800 3.800 N/A 0.195 0.195 t N/A 2.100 2.100 N/A 0.137 0.137 t N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 25 Sinter t N/A 2.450 2.45 N/A 0.262 0.262 26 Hot metal for the steelworks with Iron making process t N/A 20.900 20.900 0.172 1.855 2.027 t N/A N/A N/A 0.172 N/A 0.172 t N/A 20.900 20.900 0.172 1.855 2.027 Cold iron for the steelworks without Iron making process t N/A N/A N/A 0.172 N/A 0.172 28 Gas-based DRI for the steelworks with Iron making process t N/A 14.100 14.100 0.073 0.780 0.853 t N/A N/A N/A 0.073 N/A 0.073 t N/A 17.900 17.900 0.073 1.210 1.283 22 Electricity 23 Steam Hot metal for the steelworks without Iron making process 27 Cold iron for the steelworks with Iron making process Gas-based DRI for the steelworks without Iron making process Others 0.440 Oxygen 29 Coal-based DRI for the steelworks with Iron making process Product and by-product 0.000 Argon Pellets for the steelworks without Iron making process Alloys N/A 21 24 Pellets for the steelworks with Iron making process Ferrouscontaining material N/A 20 EAF graphite electrodes Energy carriers dry t Coal-based DRI for the steelworks without Iron making process t N/A N/A N/A 0.073 N/A 0.073 30 Ferro-nickel t N/A N/A N/A 0.037 N/A 0.037 31 Ferro-chromium t N/A N/A N/A 0.275 N/A 0.275 32 Ferro-molybdenum t N/A N/A N/A 0.018 N/A 0.018 33 CO2 for external use t N/A N/A N/A 1.000 N/A 1.000 34 Coal tar t 37.000 N/A 37.000 3.389 N/A 3.389 35 Benzole (coal light oil) t 40.570 N/A 40.570 3.382 N/A 3.382 36 Other emission sources — 63 APPENDIX 4: CALCULATION OF THE POTENTIAL CBAM PAYMENTS AND IMPACTS Calculation of potential CBAM payments and impacts on exports under BAU scenario by country Year Vietnam’s CBAM payment/t steel China’s CBAM payment/t steel India CBAM payment/t steel Brazil’s CBAM payment/t steel South Korea’s CBAM payment/t steel Japan’s CBAM payment/t steel Taiwan’s CBAM payment/t steel Turkey’s CBAM payment/t steel Russia’s CBAM payment/t steel Ukraine’s CBAM payment/t steel Projected export volume to EU (million tons) Vietnam’s total projected CBAM price (million USD) Share of Vietnam’s total projected CBAM price to total projected export value of steel to EU Share of Vietnam’s total projected CBAM price to total projected export value of steel 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 4.87 10.15 21.20 49.80 112.06 147.15 185.10 226.11 274.49 4.28 8.97 18.80 44.31 100.05 131.80 166.30 203.73 248.01 8.17 17.04 35.57 83.56 188.05 246.93 310.62 379.43 460.61 4.81 10.04 20.96 49.24 110.80 145.49 183.02 223.57 271.41 3.42 7.20 15.15 35.88 81.33 107.55 136.20 167.45 204.51 4.55 9.50 19.84 46.65 105.07 138.07 173.82 212.48 258.11 3.88 8.09 16.89 39.67 89.28 117.23 147.46 180.13 218.68 2.42 5.05 10.54 24.76 55.72 73.16 92.03 112.42 136.48 6.33 13.19 27.55 64.71 145.63 191.22 240.54 293.84 356.70 6.41 1.714 13.37 1.736 27.91 1.759 65.56 1.781 147.53 1.805 193.72 1.828 243.68 1.852 297.67 1.876 361.36 1.900 8.34 17.63 37.29 88.73 202.28 269.07 342.87 424.28 521.75 0.4 0.9 1.8 4.3 9.7 12.7 16.0 19.5 23.7 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 1.6 1.9 2.4 2.7 64 Calculation of potential CBAM payments and impacts on exports under NDC scenario for Vietnam Year Vietnam’s CBAM payment/t steel Projected export volume to EU (million tons) Vietnam’s total projected CBAM price (million USD) Share of Vietnam’s total projected CBAM price to total projected export value of steel to EU Share of Vietnam’s total projected CBAM price to total projected export value of steel 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 4.21 1.714 8.54 1.736 16.59 1.759 37.85 1.781 82.74 1.805 105.52 1.828 128.92 1.852 152.96 1.876 180.34 1.900 7.22 14.82 29.19 67.45 149.35 192.95 238.8 287.01 342.80 0.36 0.74 1.43 3.26 7.13 9.10 11.11 13.18 15.54 0.05 0.10 0.18 0.43 0.86 1.15 1.29 1.61 1.75 Calculation of potential CBAM payments and impacts on exports under Ambitious scenario for Vietnam Year Vietnam’s CBAM payment/t steel Projected export volume to EU (million tons) Vietnam’s total projected CBAM price (million USD) Share of Vietnam’s total projected CBAM price to total projected export value of steel to EU Share of Vietnam’s total projected CBAM price to total projected export value of steel 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 3.83 1.714 7.61 1.736 13.74 1.759 30.60 1.781 65.25 1.805 81.16 1.828 96.66 1.852 111.76 1.876 128.36 1.900 6.56 13.21 24.18 54.53 117.79 148.40 179.06 209.71 243.98 0.33 0.66 1.18 2.64 5.62 7.00 8.33 9.63 11.06 0.04 0.09 0.15 0.35 0.68 0.88 0.97 1.18 1.24 65 APPENDIX 5: MATRIX OF LEARNING RESULTS AND OUTCOMES FOR THE MASTER’S THESIS Results of the master’s thesis Program Learning Outcomes (PLO) of MCLIMATE CHANGED PLO1: Accumulating and mastering the basic knowledge on principles of Marxism Leninism, Political Theory and Ideology of Ho Chi Minh; and general knowledge about administration and management PLO2: Mastering the fundamental, interdisciplinary knowledge and methodologies to assess and address actual problems (fate and features) related to climate change mitigation, adaptation for sustainable development at global, national and local levels PLO3: Understanding and developing systematic linking; necessary knowledge on science, technology, innovation and governance related to climate change response for development; identifying, analyzing, assessing and forecasting the issues related to climate change and CCR (climate change and response); predicting the developing trend of climate change science PLO4: Applying knowledge to solve the problems in climate change and CCR: planning and approaching the works in field Carbon intensities of the steel sector in Vietnam CBAM key design elements Carbon prices in Vietnam and the EU under CBAM Scenarios of potential CBAM costs and impacts Current status of steel sector Outcomes of the master’s thesis Strategies Potential and CBAM recommend costs and ations for impacts on reducing the steel the negative sector impacts of CBAM 66 Results of the master’s thesis Program Learning Outcomes (PLO) of MCLIMATE CHANGED of climate change; proposing the initiatives as well as the researches on climate change; implementing the solutions on science, technology, mechanism, policy and finance for CCR and development PLO5: Having skills of cooperation with personal, agencies, organizations domestically and internationally to solve the climate change issues, communication in works, projects on climate change; and organizing, managing and administrating advanced career development PLO6: Accumulating soft skills to selfdirected and adapt to competitive working environment such as English proficiency (at level 4/6 according to English competencies Framework for Vietnam), Japanese communication skills; having skills on time management; using the basic computer skills proficiently; working and researching independently; having skills of research and development; and using technologies creatively in academic and professional fields PLO7: Dynamic, confident, persistent, enthusiastic, and risk-taking and management PLO8: Having social/community’s responsibility and professional morality, Carbon intensities of the steel sector in Vietnam CBAM key design elements Carbon prices in Vietnam and the EU under CBAM Scenarios of potential CBAM costs and impacts Current status of steel sector Outcomes of the master’s thesis Strategies Potential and CBAM recommend costs and ations for impacts on reducing the steel the negative sector impacts of CBAM 67 Results of the master’s thesis Program Learning Outcomes (PLO) of MCLIMATE CHANGED especially for scientific research results; being able to adapt to multicultural environment, answer the harmony between the stakeholders, CCR and development; having good social morality, assist the vulnerable people to climate change; compliance with the law; discipline at work and positive lifestyle; having good attitude to their career in climate change response for sustainable development PLO9: Having responsibility for researching, creating new knowledge, and offering new ideas on climate change response in different complex situations; adapting and guiding other people and making expert decisions on climate change response; managing research, having high responsibility in learning in order to develop professional knowledge, and creating new ideas in new process; and having good life-long learning capacity Carbon intensities of the steel sector in Vietnam CBAM key design elements Carbon prices in Vietnam and the EU under CBAM Scenarios of potential CBAM costs and impacts Current status of steel sector Outcomes of the master’s thesis Strategies Potential and CBAM recommend costs and ations for impacts on reducing the steel the negative sector impacts of CBAM 68