Table of Contents Abstract 5 1. INTRODUCTION 5 1.1 Background 5 1.2. Target 5 2. Literature review 6 2.1. Definition 6 2.2. Expected scope of RCEP 6 2.2.1. Market access issues 7 2.2.2. Other new issues in the RCEP Agreement 7 2.3 Approach and research methodology 7 3. INDUSTRY ANALYSIS 9 3.1. Vietnams trade according to partner countries 9 3.1.1. Export 9 3.1.2. Import 11 3.2. Trade by difference items 13 3.2.1. Export 13 3.2.2. Import 18 3.3. AgricultureForestryFishery 19 3.3.1 Contribution to GDP 19 3.3.2 Total output and trade 19 3.3.3 Investment in the agroforestry and fishery industry 23 3.3.4. Opportunities and challenges for the AFF industry 28 5. POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS 30 5.1. General policies: 30 5.2. Apply the RCEP to the FTA policy 31 5.3. Recommendations for agriculture: 32 References 34 2 Table of Figures Figure 1. Export to RCEP with MFN status .................................................................... 8 Figure 2. Impact of joining RCEP ................................................................................... 9 Figure 3. Trade value of agroforestryfishery sector, period 20042012 (USD billion) ....................................................................................................................................... 20 Figure 4. Proportion of AFF products in total import and export of Vietnam, period 2004 2012 (%) ............................................................................................................... 21 Figure 5. AFF export structure at current prices, period 20042013 (%) ..................... 22 Table of Tables Table 1. Vietnams export growth to some trading partners trade, period 20012013 (%) ................................................................................................................................. 10 Table 2. Import growth of Vietnam from some trading partners, period 20012013(%) ....................................................................................................................................... 12 Table 3. Structure of Vietnams total export turnover by commodity group, period 20042012 (%) ............................................................................................................... 14 Table 4. Proportion of main exports of Vietnam, period 20082012 (%) ..................... 16 Table 5. Share of Vietnams exports by RCA group, period 20092012 (%). .............. 18 Table 6. Structure of state investment by economic sector 20072013 ........................ 23 Table 7. National investment into AFS classified into sectors, period 20002010(%) . 25 Table 8. FDI by sectors, period 20062013 ................................................................... 27 3 Abbreviations RCEP: Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership ASEAN: Association of Southeast Asian Nations FTA: Free Trade Agreement TTP: TransPacific Partnership Agreement 4 Abstract Officially launched in 2012, RCEP is an ambitious agreement to forming a comprehensive economic partnership between ASEAN and six regional partners The region has signed FTAs with ASEAN. RCEP is also consistent with Vietnams point of view South is pursuing deeper economic integration associated with reforms in the country stronger and more comprehensive. This study has two specific objectives. One is to assess the impact of RCEP for the Vietnamese agroforestry and fisheries sector. Second, determine the preparation steps both in policy levels and businesses to ensure that RCEP implementation will bring maximum (net) benefits to Vietnam’s agroforestry and fisheries sector Keyword: International economics, RCEP, agroforestry and fisheries sector, Vietnam trade 1. INTRODUCTION 1.1 Background Since 1986, Vietnam has actively and actively engaged in the association worldwide economic integration, expanded access to foreign markets, and resources essential for the countrys socioeconomic growth. RCEP, in particular, is an ambitious agreement aimed at establishing a strong link between the two nations. ASEAN has inked FTAs with six regional partners, including China, Japan, Korea, Australia, New Zealand, and India, as part of a comprehensive economic alliance. In 2012, the RCEP negotiating process was formally begun. With a combined GDP of almost 19 thousand billion dollars, the Zone RCEP area is predicted to be the region with the biggest population. RCEP is also aligned with Vietnams goal of pursuing greater economic integration, coupled with stronger and more comprehensive internal reforms, based on progress made in ASEANs FTAs with each member. 1.2. Target This study has two specific goals. First, the study identifies preparations at both the policy and corporate levels to ensure that the implementation of RCEP will bring maximum benefits to Vietnam. These preparations are essential because, given the scope and depth of the agreement, RCEP could present unprecedented opportunities and challenges for business and investment. 5 Second, assess the impact of RCEP on the Vietnamese economy. To this end, the report updates existing research papers on the impact assessment of the various FTAs that Vietnam has signed. 2. Literature review 2.1. Definition The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is a free trade agreement between Australia, Brunei, Cambodia, China, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, New Zealand, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam, which includes Australia, Brunei, Cambodia, China, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, New Zealand, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam. It is the worlds largest trading union, with 15 member nations accounting for around 30% of the worlds population (2.2 billion people) and 30% of worldwide GDP (26.2 trillion). It is Asias first free trade pact, bringing together China, Japan, and South Korea, three of the continents four major economies. The RCEP includes a mix of nations with high, medium, and low incomes. Within 20 years of entering into effect, it is anticipated to abolish almost 90% of tariffs on imports between its members, as well as create standard norms for ecommerce, trade, and intellectual property. RCEPs success depends on ASEAN using the agreement to maintain pressure on member countries domestic economic reforms; desiring to continue to be at the heart of the everevolving regional economic partnership; and specific contents such as having a commitment plan for all ASEAN member countries. Among nonASEAN partners, RCEP offers Australia and New Zealand an opportunity to go beyond results that can be achieved through bilateral cooperation. For China, the RCEP not only puts more pressure on the domestic reform process but also closely ties these nine countries to a large region. India is not yet eligible to join the TPP, so RCEP is an important regional game for India, as is China, despite the difficulties in accepting the fundamentals of the TTP vs. RCEP. For China, Japan and South Korea, RCEP is an easier forum than negotiating a separate FTA between these three countries. 2.2. Expected scope of RCEP After the first six rounds of negotiations, the ASEAN Leaders agreed that the RCEP agreement would commit to a deeper and broader commitment with significant improvements over the existing FTAs and ASEAN+1, and acknowledged the unique and diverse circumstances of the participating member countries. During the negotiation 6 process or even after the conclusion of the RCEP negotiations, new countries may be allowed to join the agreement, subject to terms and conditions accepted by the existing member countries. Thus, in the future, the RCEP agreement can admit countries outside the ASEAN+6 region, which has practical implications for regional countries, including Vietnam. 2.2.1. Market access issues Rules of Origin (RoO) play an important role in ensuring preferential treatment only for FTA members to avoid trade diversion, and thereby increase the possibility of taking advantage of the FTA agreement. Therefore, RoO is a key content in RCEP negotiations, including harmonization and balance of rules and accumulation of valuable content to reduce costs and transaction time. Details on this are not available at this time, but the RoO is certainly influenced by the structure of the RCEP Agreement. Given the importance of the agroforestryfishery sector to RCEP member countries, negotiations on agroforestryfishery are expected to be rather conservative and may not exceed concessions made by countries under the current framework: WTO commitments ASEAN Trade in Goods Agreement ASEANChina Free Trade Agreement (ACFTA) ASEAN Korea Free Trade Agreement (AKFTA) ASEAN Japan Free Trade Agreement (AJFTA) ASEAN Australia New Zealand Free Trade Agreement ASEANIndia Trade in Goods Agreement Vietnam Japan Economic Partnership Agreement 2.2.2. Other new issues in the RCEP Agreement RCEP covers many topics such as intellectual property rights, environmental protection, labor, financial services, technical barriers and other legal issues. By taking a progressive ASEANstyle approach, committed to new content can be negotiated and agreed upon over time. The important topics of RCEP are cooperation in many fields: Economic and technical cooperation Intellectual Property Compete Dispute resolution 2.3 Approach and research methodology 7 Research that incorporates detailed analysis at the industry level to identify areas special attention should be paid when negotiating market access under the RCEP framework, or in the case of importcompetitive industries, which industries can increase? growth is slower or even shrinking, thereby posing challenges to adjust. Moreover, the study uses the general equilibrium model to determine the interactions in the entire economy by linking all industries through the InterIndustry Balance sheet and linking all countries through trade commercial flow. Figure 1. Export to RCEP with MFN status The main effects of RCEP are trade creation, trade diversion, loss of tax revenue, effects on trade conditions (export prices relative to import prices) and zero losses (loss of economic efficiency). These effects can be illustrated with two simple graphs. The graph shows the results when a nonRCEP country (Vietnam) exports to an RCEP member country. Exporting countries are subject to the same MFN tariff rates as other nonmembers. The figure shows the export volume (Q1), import volume (M1) and tax revenue (a + b + c + d) of the importing country when the tariff is t and the domestic price is Pw(1+). t 8 Figure 2. Impact of joining RCEP The figure above shows the impact on exporting and importing countries when the exporting country (Vietnam) joins RCEP with preferential tax rates. A new RCEP member, as an exporter, increases exports to Q2 and achieves an export revenue equal to the area (a+b+c), which is again the trade loss of nonmembers. another member. Thats called trade diversion. It also means that import tax revenue is reduced by area (a+b+c). Part of the loss (a + b) goes to the exporting country, but part c is a “zero loss” because the exporting country still has to bear the cost of producing the export product more than it costs to produce the export product. competitive in the world. This additional cost makes the exporting country a supplier of highcost goods, which can only increase exports when other competitors in the world lost because of the tax rate that the exporting country enjoys. discount due to special offer. 3. INDUSTRY ANALYSIS 3.1. Vietnams trade according to partner countries 3.1.1. Export Vietnams exports to most markets tended to increase in the period 20012006. Notably, some markets achieved very high growth, such as the US (47.9%), Australia and New Zealand (20.14%), South Korea (19.20%), China (17.83). %), ASEAN (17.9%). However, the financial crisis and global economic recession in 20072008 caused a significant decline in global aggregate demand, leading to a decrease in Vietnams exports in 2007 compared to the previous period. Thus, export to the number of trading partners decreased sharply in the period 20082009 and all grew negatively. 9 Exports to the US still increased, but the pace fell to 14.46% in the 20072013 period, 33.44 percentage points lower than in the previous period the largest decrease among the countrys main trading partners. Vietnam. During the same period 20072013, exports to the EU and India achieved a positive growth rate of 13.69% and 46.85%. While exports to the EU market only decreased slightly compared to the previous period of 0.17%, the Australian and New Zealand markets witnessed negative average growth during this period. The positive point is that exports to other main markets still increased impressively, especially China and Korea. Between 2007 and 2013, exports to China and South Korea increased by 26.98% and 32.46%, 9.15 percentage points and 13.26 percentage points higher, respectively, compared with 2001 2006. Exports to Japan also increased at 14.47%, up 2.18 percentage points. ASEAN continued to increase demand for exports from Vietnam, with an increase of 17.90%, slightly higher than in the 20012006 period. The sharp increase in exports to China and Korea is partly due to the impact of the ASEANChina and ASEANKorea FTAs. Exports to India, although achieved a very high growth rate of 50.89% in the period 20012006, the absolute value is not large, at about 159.83 million USD in 2006 compared to 13.5 million USD in 2000 However, exports to this market maintained a high growth rate, reaching 46.85% per year in the period 20072013 with nearly US2.35 billion in 2013, even though India still has many limitations. many aspects of the ASEANIndia trade in goods agreement. AANZFTA does not promote Vietnams exports to Australia and New Zealand because Vietnams export turnover to this market decreased by 0.17% in the 20072013 period, in stark contrast to the 2001 2006 period. Table 1. Vietnams export growth to some trading partners trade, period 20012013 (%) 20012006 20072013 Australia 20,14 0,17 ASEAN 17,79 17,90 10 China 17,83 26,98 EU25 14,47 13,69 India 50,89 46,85 Japan 12,29 14,47 Korea 19,20 32,46 America 47,90 14,46
FOREIGN TRADE UNIVERSITY SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS AND INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS -*** INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS MIDTERM REPORT Topic: THE IMPACT OF REGIONAL COMPREHENSIVE ECONOMIC PARTNERSHIP (RCEP) ON VIETNAM'S AGROFORESTRY AND FISHERIES SECTOR Table of Contents Abstract INTRODUCTION 1.1 Background 1.2 Target Literature review 2.1 Definition 2.2 Expected scope of RCEP 2.2.1 Market access issues 2.2.2 Other new issues in the RCEP Agreement 2.3 Approach and research methodology INDUSTRY ANALYSIS 3.1 Vietnam's trade according to partner countries 3.1.1 Export 3.1.2 Import 11 3.2 Trade by difference items 13 3.2.1 Export 13 3.2.2 Import 18 3.3 Agriculture-Forestry-Fishery 19 3.3.1 Contribution to GDP 19 3.3.2 Total output and trade 19 3.3.3 Investment in the agroforestry and fishery industry 23 3.3.4 Opportunities and challenges for the AFF industry 28 POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS 30 5.1 General policies: 30 5.2 Apply the RCEP to the FTA policy 31 5.3 Recommendations for agriculture: 32 References 34 Table of Figures Figure Export to RCEP with MFN status Figure Impact of joining RCEP Figure Trade value of agro-forestry-fishery sector, period 2004-2012 (USD billion) 20 Figure Proportion of AFF products in total import and export of Vietnam, period 2004 2012 (%) 21 Figure AFF export structure at current prices, period 2004-2013 (%) 22 Table of Tables Table Vietnam's export growth to some trading partners trade, period 2001-2013 (%) 10 Table Import growth of Vietnam from some trading partners, period 2001-2013(%) 12 Table Structure of Vietnam's total export turnover by commodity group, period 2004-2012 (%) 14 Table Proportion of main exports of Vietnam, period 2008-2012 (%) 16 Table Share of Vietnam's exports by RCA group, period 2009-2012 (%) 18 Table Structure of state investment by economic sector 2007-2013 23 Table National investment into AFS classified into sectors, period 2000-2010(%) 25 Table FDI by sectors, period 2006-2013 27 Abbreviations RCEP: Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership ASEAN: Association of Southeast Asian Nations FTA: Free Trade Agreement TTP: Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement Abstract Officially launched in 2012, RCEP is an ambitious agreement to forming a comprehensive economic partnership between ASEAN and six regional partners The region has signed FTAs with ASEAN RCEP is also consistent with Vietnam's point of view South is pursuing deeper economic integration associated with reforms in the country stronger and more comprehensive This study has two specific objectives One is to assess the impact of RCEP for the Vietnamese agroforestry and fisheries sector Second, determine the preparation steps both in policy levels and businesses to ensure that RCEP implementation will bring maximum (net) benefits to Vietnam’s agroforestry and fisheries sector Keyword: International economics, RCEP, agroforestry and fisheries sector, Vietnam trade INTRODUCTION 1.1 Background Since 1986, Vietnam has actively and actively engaged in the association worldwide economic integration, expanded access to foreign markets, and resources essential for the country's socio-economic growth RCEP, in particular, is an ambitious agreement aimed at establishing a strong link between the two nations ASEAN has inked FTAs with six regional partners, including China, Japan, Korea, Australia, New Zealand, and India, as part of a comprehensive economic alliance In 2012, the RCEP negotiating process was formally begun With a combined GDP of almost 19 thousand billion dollars, the Zone RCEP area is predicted to be the region with the biggest population RCEP is also aligned with Vietnam's goal of pursuing greater economic integration, coupled with stronger and more comprehensive internal reforms, based on progress made in ASEAN's FTAs with each member 1.2 Target This study has two specific goals First, the study identifies preparations at both the policy and corporate levels to ensure that the implementation of RCEP will bring maximum benefits to Vietnam These preparations are essential because, given the scope and depth of the agreement, RCEP could present unprecedented opportunities and challenges for business and investment Second, assess the impact of RCEP on the Vietnamese economy To this end, the report updates existing research papers on the impact assessment of the various FTAs that Vietnam has signed Literature review 2.1 Definition The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is a free trade agreement between Australia, Brunei, Cambodia, China, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, New Zealand, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam, which includes Australia, Brunei, Cambodia, China, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, New Zealand, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam It is the world's largest trading union, with 15 member nations accounting for around 30% of the world's population (2.2 billion people) and 30% of worldwide GDP ($26.2 trillion) It is Asia's first free trade pact, bringing together China, Japan, and South Korea, three of the continent's four major economies The RCEP includes a mix of nations with high, medium, and low incomes Within 20 years of entering into effect, it is anticipated to abolish almost 90% of tariffs on imports between its members, as well as create standard norms for e-commerce, trade, and intellectual property RCEP's success depends on ASEAN using the agreement to maintain pressure on member countries' domestic economic reforms; desiring to continue to be at the heart of the ever-evolving regional economic partnership; and specific contents such as having a commitment plan for all ASEAN member countries Among non-ASEAN partners, RCEP offers Australia and New Zealand an opportunity to go beyond results that can be achieved through bilateral cooperation For China, the RCEP not only puts more pressure on the domestic reform process but also closely ties these nine countries to a large region India is not yet eligible to join the TPP, so RCEP is an important regional game for India, as is China, despite the difficulties in accepting the fundamentals of the TTP vs RCEP For China, Japan and South Korea, RCEP is an easier forum than negotiating a separate FTA between these three countries 2.2 Expected scope of RCEP After the first six rounds of negotiations, the ASEAN Leaders agreed that the RCEP agreement would commit to a deeper and broader commitment with significant improvements over the existing FTAs and ASEAN+1, and acknowledged the unique and diverse circumstances of the participating member countries During the negotiation process or even after the conclusion of the RCEP negotiations, new countries may be allowed to join the agreement, subject to terms and conditions accepted by the existing member countries Thus, in the future, the RCEP agreement can admit countries outside the ASEAN+6 region, which has practical implications for regional countries, including Vietnam 2.2.1 Market access issues Rules of Origin (RoO) play an important role in ensuring preferential treatment only for FTA members to avoid trade diversion, and thereby increase the possibility of taking advantage of the FTA agreement Therefore, RoO is a key content in RCEP negotiations, including harmonization and balance of rules and accumulation of valuable content to reduce costs and transaction time Details on this are not available at this time, but the RoO is certainly influenced by the structure of the RCEP Agreement Given the importance of the agro-forestry-fishery sector to RCEP member countries, negotiations on agro-forestry-fishery are expected to be rather conservative and may not exceed concessions made by countries under the current framework: - WTO commitments ASEAN Trade in Goods Agreement ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement (ACFTA) ASEAN - Korea Free Trade Agreement (AKFTA) ASEAN - Japan Free Trade Agreement (AJFTA) ASEAN - Australia - New Zealand Free Trade Agreement ASEAN-India Trade in Goods Agreement Vietnam - Japan Economic Partnership Agreement 2.2.2 Other new issues in the RCEP Agreement RCEP covers many topics such as intellectual property rights, environmental protection, labor, financial services, technical barriers and other legal issues By taking a progressive ASEAN-style approach, committed to new content can be negotiated and agreed upon over time The important topics of RCEP are cooperation in many fields: - Economic and technical cooperation Intellectual Property Compete Dispute resolution 2.3 Approach and research methodology Research that incorporates detailed analysis at the industry level to identify areas special attention should be paid when negotiating market access under the RCEP framework, or in the case of import-competitive industries, which industries can increase? growth is slower or even shrinking, thereby posing challenges to adjust Moreover, the study uses the general equilibrium model to determine the interactions in the entire economy by linking all industries through the Inter-Industry Balance sheet and linking all countries through trade commercial flow Figure Export to RCEP with MFN status The main effects of RCEP are trade creation, trade diversion, loss of tax revenue, effects on trade conditions (export prices relative to import prices) and zero losses (loss of economic efficiency) These effects can be illustrated with two simple graphs The graph shows the results when a non-RCEP country (Vietnam) exports to an RCEP member country Exporting countries are subject to the same MFN tariff rates as other non-members The figure shows the export volume (Q1), import volume (M1) and tax revenue (a + b + c + d) of the importing country when the tariff is t and the domestic price is Pw*(1+) t Figure Impact of joining RCEP The figure above shows the impact on exporting and importing countries when the exporting country (Vietnam) joins RCEP with preferential tax rates A new RCEP member, as an exporter, increases exports to Q2 and achieves an export revenue equal to the area (a+b+c), which is again the trade loss of non-members another member That's called trade diversion It also means that import tax revenue is reduced by area (a+b+c) Part of the loss (a + b) goes to the exporting country, but part c is a “zero loss” because the exporting country still has to bear the cost of producing the export product more than it costs to produce the export product competitive in the world This additional cost makes the exporting country a supplier of high-cost goods, which can only increase exports when other competitors in the world lost because of the tax rate that the exporting country enjoys discount due to special offer INDUSTRY ANALYSIS 3.1 Vietnam's trade according to partner countries 3.1.1 Export Vietnam's exports to most markets tended to increase in the period 2001-2006 Notably, some markets achieved very high growth, such as the US (47.9%), Australia and New Zealand (20.14%), South Korea (19.20%), China (17.83) %), ASEAN (17.9%) However, the financial crisis and global economic recession in 2007-2008 caused a significant decline in global aggregate demand, leading to a decrease in Vietnam's exports in 2007 compared to the previous period Thus, export to the number of trading partners decreased sharply in the period 2008-2009 and all grew negatively Exports to the US still increased, but the pace fell to 14.46% in the 2007-2013 period, 33.44 percentage points lower than in the previous period - the largest decrease among the country's main trading partners Vietnam During the same period 2007-2013, exports to the EU and India achieved a positive growth rate of 13.69% and 46.85% While exports to the EU market only decreased slightly compared to the previous period of 0.17%, the Australian and New Zealand markets witnessed negative average growth during this period The positive point is that exports to other main markets still increased impressively, especially China and Korea Between 2007 and 2013, exports to China and South Korea increased by 26.98% and 32.46%, 9.15 percentage points and 13.26 percentage points higher, respectively, compared with 2001- 2006 Exports to Japan also increased at 14.47%, up 2.18 percentage points ASEAN continued to increase demand for exports from Vietnam, with an increase of 17.90%, slightly higher than in the 2001-2006 period The sharp increase in exports to China and Korea is partly due to the impact of the ASEAN-China and ASEAN-Korea FTAs Exports to India, although achieved a very high growth rate of 50.89% in the period 2001-2006, the absolute value is not large, at about 159.83 million USD in 2006 compared to 13.5 million USD in 2000 However, exports to this market maintained a high growth rate, reaching 46.85% per year in the period 2007-2013 with nearly US$2.35 billion in 2013, even though India still has many limitations many aspects of the ASEAN-India trade in goods agreement AANZFTA does not promote Vietnam's exports to Australia and New Zealand because Vietnam's export turnover to this market decreased by 0.17% in the 2007-2013 period, in stark contrast to the 2001- 2006 period Table Vietnam's export growth to some trading partners trade, period 2001-2013 (%) 2001-2006 2007-2013 Australia 20,14 -0,17 ASEAN 17,90 17,79 10 shifted from exploitation to afforestation, through investment programs projects, longterm allocation of forest land to households This fact reflects the efforts of the wood processing industry in product innovation and market penetration, leading to significant improvements in wood product exports The crop sub-sector maintained its growth and remains the most important agro-forestry-fishery sub-sector In the period 2007-2013, total crop production increased 3.67 times and achieved a growth rate of 20.39% per year, much higher than 8.16% per year in 2001-2007 However, the share of crops in agro-forestry-fishery production decreased from 62% in 2000 to only 53% in 2013 Although some crops (especially perennial crops) play an important role in the international market, many other crop products have not improved their position Livestock production also changed significantly in the output structure of the agroforestry-fishery sector, increasing from 15% in 2000 to 19% in 2013 In absolute terms, the value of the sub-sector increased 7.90 times in the period 2000-2013, ranking second in the sub-sectors of agriculture-forestry-fishery, only after fisheries (12.12 times) Commerce For many years, Vietnam was a net exporter of AFF products AFF export value increased rapidly from USD 5.59 billion in 2004 to about USD 20.49 billion in the period 2004-2012 Main export products are rice, cashew nuts, rubber, coffee beans and seafood Especially, years after joining WTO, the increase in export value of rice, pepper and tea was 19.8%/year, 23.9%/year and 11%/year respectively from 2007 to 2012, compared to rates of 15.4%/year, 15.4%/year and 7.2%/year for the period 2001 to 2006 Import value of agro-forestry-fishery industry increased from 1.95 billion USD in 2004 to 9.76 billion USD in 2012 The upward trend was almost continuous in both export and import of agricultural products, except in 2009 There was a slight decrease because Vietnam was affected by the financial crisis and the global economic recession Figure Trade value of agro-forestry-fishery sector, period 2004-2012 (USD billion) 20