(Luận văn thạc sĩ) strengthening agricultural resilience against saline intrusion in ca mau peninsula in the context of climate change

VIETNAM NATIONAL UNIVERSITY, HANOI VIETNAM JAPAN UNIVERSITY NGUYEN VAN DUONG STRENGTHENING AGRICULTURAL RESILIENCE AGAINST SALINE INTRUSION IN CA MAU PENINSULA IN THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE n MASTER’S THESIS VIETNAM NATIONAL UNIVERSITY, HANOI VIETNAM JAPAN UNIVERSITY NGUYEN VAN DUONG STRENGTHENING AGRICULTURAL RESILIENCE AGAINST SALINE INTRUSION IN CA MAU PENINSULA IN THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE n MAJOR: CLIMATE CHANGE AND DEVELOPMENT CODE: 8900201.02QTD RESEARCH SUPERVISOR: ASSOC PROF MAKOTO TAMURA ASSOC PROF TRINH CONG VAN Hanoi, 2021 PLEDGE I assure that this thesis is the results of my own research and has not been published The use of other research’s result and other documents must comply with regulations The citations and references to documents, books, research papers, and websites must be in the list of references of the thesis AUTHOR OF THE THESIS NGUYEN VAN DUONG n ACKNOWLEDGMENT I would like to express my respecting to Assoc Prof Makoto Tamura who introduced me to this exciting topic and supervising me during this time My thanks also go to Assoc Prof Trinh Cong Van for his comments during this thesis work Their comment and essential enabled me to complete this study on time My warm thanks also go to members of the Master of Climate Change and Development office for their relentless supporting during this time Finally, my grateful acknowledgment to my friends and family for their recommendations, suggestions and supportive of my study in VJU n TABLE OF CONTENTS n LIST OF TABLES i LIST OF FIGURES ii LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS iii CHAPTER INTRODUCTION 1.1 The necessary of the research 1.2 Overview of research in Vietnam and International scope 1.2.1 Climate change and climate change impact 1.2.2 Impact of climate change to agriculture 1.2.3 SLR and Saline intrusion impact in the 21st century 1.2.4 Adaptation strategies 1.2.5 Mitigation strategies 1.2.6 Ca Mau peninsula natural condition 1.3 The research questions 11 1.4 Research objectives 11 1.5 Scope of the research 12 1.6 Framework of the study 13 CHAPTER METHODOLOGY 16 2.1 Research task 16 2.2 Data and survey collection methods 18 2.3 Data analysis methods 19 2.3.1 Economic benefit analysis method between traditional and transitional model 19 2.3.2 Risk analysis method between traditional and transitional model 20 CHAPTER ANALYSIS OF CURRENT ADAPTIVE ACTIONS TO SALINE INTRUSION IN AGRICULTURAL SECTOR 22 3.1 Overview of current adaptive action to saline intrusion in agricultural sector 22 3.2 Economic benefit comparison between traditional agriculture method and agricultural transition 25 3.2.1 Income 27 3.2.2 Expense 28 3.2.3 Profit 30 3.3 Risks comparison between traditional agriculture and agricultural transition in terms of risk related to saline intrusion 30 3.4 Impacts of agricultural transition to natural environment 32 3.5 Impacts of agricultural transition to GHGs emission 33 3.6 Impacts of climate change to agricultural transition 36 3.7 Overall discussion: SWOT analysis of rice-shrimp model 39 CHAPTER PROPOSAL OF RECOMMENDATIONS TO INCREASE RESILIENCE IN AGRICULTURE AGAINST SALINE INTRUSION 42 4.1 Recommendation to increase agricultural resilience against saline intrustion 42 4.1.1 Overall recommendations to increase agricultural resilience against saline intrustion 42 4.1.2 Increase financial resource to cope with saline intrusion 44 4.1.3 Promote the value of transitional agriculture model 49 4.1.4 Environment 50 4.1.5 Empowerment 51 4.1.6 Infrastructure improvement 53 4.2 Limitation of the research and future work 54 CHAPTER CONCLUSION 57 REFERENCES 59 APPENDIX 63 n LIST OF TABLES Table 3.1 Rice production in An Bien District 27 Table 3.2 Comparison between income from rice monoculture and rice-shrimp farming model 28 Table 3.3 Comparison between expense from rice monoculture and rice-shrimp farming model 29 Table 3.4 Comparison between risk and opportunity from rice monoculture and riceshrimp farming model 32 Table 3.5 Comparison between rice monoculture and rice-shrimp farming model in terms of impact to environment 33 Table 3.6 Souces of activity data and emission fators 35 Table 3.7 Comparison between rice monoculture and rice-shrimp farming model in terms of GHGs emission 36 n i LIST OF FIGURES n Figure 1.1 Salinity boundary in the Mekong Delta Figure 1.2 Map of Ca Mau peninsula 10 Figure 1.3 Research objetives 12 Figure 1.4 Framework of the study 15 Figure 2.1 Research tasks 16 Figure 2.2 Illustration of the risk concepts of the IPCC WGII AR5 (IPCC, 2014) 21 Figure 3.1 The shrimp culture area by farming systems in the Mekong Delta (MD) 22 Figure 3.2 Rice-shrimp farming area in some communes in Kien Giang Province 23 Figure 3.3 Development zoning of the rice-shrimp farming (yellow part) 24 Figure 3.4 Economic benefit comparison between farming methods 30 Figure 3.5 SWOT analysis of rice-shrimp model 40 Figure 4.1 Triple bottom line framework (HBS, 2020) 42 Figure 4.2 Provincial spending in Ca Mau Province 45 Figure 4.3 Provincial spending in Kien Giang Province 45 Figure 4.4 Traditional production value chain 49 Figure 4.5 Production value change development 50 Figure 4.6 Unemployment rate of labour force at working age in rural area by gender in Kien Giang Province 52 Figure 4.7 Unemployment rate of labour force at working age by gender and by residence in Ca Mau 53 ii LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS GSO: HBS: IPCC: MARD: MRD: MONRE: MOC: SLR: UNDP: WB: General Statistics Office of Vietnam Harvard Business School Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development Mekong River Delta Ministry of Nature Resources and Environment Ministry of Construction Sea level rise United Nations Development Programme World Bank n iii CHAPTER INTRODUCTION 1.1 The necessary of the research At the end of 2015, severe dought has impacted all provinces in Mekong Delta and other parts in Central regions of Vietnam, affecting millions of people, especially people living in coastal areas Drought has caused water shortage and saline intrusion in Mekong delta, up to 90 kilometer inlands (UNDP, 2016) The impact of drought is considered as the most serious within 100 years in the region, in which Kien Giang and Ca Mau Province are reported with the highest damages The unexpected occurance of drought and the intrusion of salt water extends up to 20-25 km further inland than average (MARD, 2016) havebrought up the concern of climate change, natural disaster and food security Climate change has caused the increasing average sea level, abnormal climatic condition and many natural hazards Climate change also contributes to the loss caused by El Niño (ENSO), both in intensity and frequency (NOAA, 2020) n El Niño is a phenomenon consisting of changing ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific (NCSU, 2016) El Niño is considered as one of the main drivers of extreme climate variations, including changes in the space-time patterns of floods, droughts, cyclone/severe storms activity, cold/hot spells etc (Subiah & Kishore, 2005) Elicited by the El Niño, the drought has resulted in adverse impacts, such as reduced agricultural production, which limit the livelihoods and aggravates food insecurity in poor and vulnerable communities (Nguyen, 2016) The severe drought and salinity intrusion strongly affected 11 of the 13 provinces in the MRD in 2015 Around 400,000 of cropland have been affected, of which 25,900 were left fallow Rice areas affected by drought and salinity intrusion rapidly increased from 139,000 in mid-March 2016 to 224,552 by mid-April 2016 The MARD report updated on 15 April 2016 showed 208,394 households lacked freshwater for domestic use Water shortage and salinity intrusion have also affected 13,000 of cash crops, 25,500 of fruit trees and 14,400 of aquaculture Other major challenges include increases in Agriculture Aquaculture Livestock Other Air Food Water Other……… PART B – ECONOMICAL EFFICIENCY ANALYSIS A For rice-shrimp crop rotation: Type of shrimp:…………… n Type of rice:……………… Type of environment (fresh water/ brackish water/ how salinity):………………………… Duration raising shrimp: Season 1: from…………to…………… Season 2: from…………to…………… Season 3: from…………to…………… Duration growing rice: Season 1: from…………to…………… Season 2: from…………to…………… 67 Income Rice: Season Productivity/ha:…….(tons) Unit price/ton:………(VND) Area:…………………… ( ha) Total income: - Expense: Seeds:…………………… (VND/ha) Fertilizer:……………… (VND/ha) Other expense:………(VND/ha) Net income: Season Productivity/ha:…….(to ns) Unit price/ton:………(VND) Area:………………… … (ha) Total income: Expense: Seeds:………………… … (VND/ha) Fertilizer:……………… (VND/ha) Other expense:………(VND/h a) Season Productivity/ha:…….(tons) Unit price/ton:………(VND) Area:…………………… (ha) Total income: Expense: Seeds:…………………… (VND/ha) Fertilizer:……………… (VND/ha) Other expense:………(VND/ha) Net income: Net income: n Shrimp: Season Productivity/ha:……… ……….(tons) Unit price/ton:……………………(VND) Area:…………………………….… (ha) Total income: - Season Productivity/ha:……… ……….(to ns) Unit price/ton:……………………(VND ) Area:…………………………… … (ha) Total income: Expense: Spawn:………………(VND/ha) Food:…………………(VND/ha) Other:……………… (VND/ha) Net income: - Expense: Spawn:………………(VND/ha) Food:…………………(VND/ha) Other:……………… (VND/ha) Net income: Other income from agriculture: 68 ………………………………………………………… Total investment…………………………………… (VND/ha) B For rice-shrimp inter-cropping: Duration of inter-cropping: from………… to………… Type of shrimp:…………… Type of rice………… Type of environment:……………………… Income Rice Productivity/ha:…….(tons) Unit price/ton:………(VND) Area:…………………… (ha) Total income: Expense: Seeds:…………………… (VND/ha) Fertilizer:……………… (VND/ha) Other expense:………(VND/ha) Net income: n - Shrimp Productivity/ha:…….(tons) Unit price/ton:………(VND) Area:…………………… (ha) Total income: - Expense: Spawn:………………(VND/ha) Food:…………………(VND/ha) Other:……………… (VND/ha) Net income: Other income from agriculture: …………………………………… Total investment…………………………………… (VND/ha) 69 APPENDIX B QUESTIONNAIRE FOR LOCAL EXPERT A DETERMINATION AND APPROVAL QUESTION AND FILTERS PROVINCE/CITY: DISTRIC/TOWN: SUB-DISTRICT/VILLAGE: HAMLET/GROUP: HOUSE'S NUMBER COORDINATE PAIR: X Y NAME OF THE RESPONDENT GENDER OF THE RESPONDENT n NAME OF INTERVIEWER: DATE OF INTERVIEWING: NAME OF SUPERVISOR: [ ] [ ] ] [ ] ]_ _] [ ] ]_ _] ] [ ] ]_ _] ] [ ] ]_ _] ] [ ] ]_ _] ] [ ] ]_ _] ] _/ /2020 _/ /2020 DATE OF MONITORING: B SELF-INTRODUCTION INTERVIEWERS CODE STUDENTS AND APPROVAL OF Hello, my name is I am a graduate student of Vietnam-Japan University, Hanoi National University We are conducting a study on ………………… in Kien Giang Province We want you to provide some information regarding the above problem by answering the questions below All information you provide will be recorded accurately and anonymous Your participation in this study is voluntary and you may not answer any questions or all questions However, we hope 70 that you will cooperate, participate in this study because your opinions are very important We greatly appreciate your participation in this study Would you like to answer some question in my survey? If yes -> Proceed to interview If no -> Move to another household/specialist, etc C GENERAL QUESTION Interview for local authorities: Please indentify general conditions of your province/district/commune in terms of: + Overall economic activities: + Main types of agricultural methods: + Environment and pollution: + Strategy for future development: + Social issues (gender discrimination/ safety/ rich-poor gap, etc.) - Please indentify changes of traditional method (rice) to adaptive method (rice-shrimp) in terms of: + Living standard: + Environment: + Overall provincial economy: (export) + Technology: - Does local authority have any support to adaptive method in terms of: + Finance support: + Technical training: + Output for products: + PR-marketing for the product: - Please indentify challenges for adaptive method in terms of: + Pollution: + Policy: + Climate change (storm/saline intrusion/flood/drought): + Human resource: + Technical: + Disease: + Etc n - 71 - Please indentify opportunities for rice-shrimp farming: + Special: (organic) + Market need: n 72 APPENDIX C Unemployment rate of labour force at working age by sex and by residence in Kien Giang Province Total By sex By residence Year Male Female Urban Rural 2014 2.5 0.95 4.45 1.89 2.57 2015 3.35 2.32 4.87 3.43 3.32 2016 3.36 2.84 4.41 3.72 3.22 2017 2.98 2.1 4.32 2.98 2.8 2018 2.97 1.88 4.66 2.71 3.07 n 73 APPENDIX D ENVIRONMENTAL TAXES RATE (RESOLUTION No.: 579/2018/UBTVQH14) No Goods Unit Tax rate (VND/ unit) Petrol, oil and grease Petrol, except ethanol liter 4,000 Jet fuel liter 3,000 Diesel oil liter 2,000 Kerosene liter 1,000 Mazut liter 2,000 Lubricant liter 2,000 Grease kg 2,000 II Coal Lignite ton 15,000 Anthracite coal ton 30,000 Black coal ton 15,000 Other coals ton 15,000 III HCFC solutions, including those of HCFCcontaining mixtures kg 5,000 IV Taxable plastic bags kg 50,000 V Restricted-use herbicides kg 500 VI Restricted-use termiticides kg 1,000 VII Restricted-use forest product preservatives kg 1,000 VIII Restricted-use storehouse disinfectants kg 1,000 n I 74 APPENDIX E RISK CALCULATION TO AGRICULTURE PRODUCTION DUE TO SALINE INTRUSION Rate of loss 0.10 0.11 0.13 0.14 0.17 0.20 0.25 0.33 0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.6 10% 1.0% 1.1% 1.3% 1.4% 1.7% 2.0% 2.5% 3.3% 3.4 25% 2.5% 2.8% 3.1% 3.6% 4.2% 5.0% 6.3% 8.3% 36% 3.6% 4.0% n FREQUENCY OF SALINE INTRUSION SALINITY CONCENTRATION (g/litter) 4.5% 5.1% 6.0% 7.1% 8.9% 11.9% 4.8 50% 5.0% 5.6% 6.3% 7.1% 8.3% 10.0% 12.5% 16.7% 7.6 100% 10.0% 11.1% 12.5% 14.3% 16.7% 20.0% 25.0% 33.3% 75 APPENDIX F MATRIX OF LEARNING OUTCOMES FOR THE MASTER’S THESIS Result 1: Gaining general knowledge about Climate Change Result 2: Accumulate experience in practical situation Result 3: Applying knowledge to practical environment Result 4: Implementing project to developing society Outcome 1: Thesis will be applied to work after graduation Outcome 2: Improving writing skill and critical thinking n Results of the Master’s thesis Program Learning Outcomes (PLOs) Other outcomes of the Master’s thesis of MCCD Result Result Result Result Outcome Outcome PLO1: Accumulating and mastering the basic knowledge on principles of Marxism - Leninism, Political Theory    and Ideology of Ho Chi Minh; and general knowledge about 76 administration and management PLO2: Mastering the fundamental, interdisciplinary knowledge and methodologies to assess and address actual problems (fate and features)    related to CC mitigation, adaptation for sustainable development at global, national and local levels systematic thinking; n PLO3: Understanding and developing necessary knowledge on science, technology, innovation and governance related to CC response for development;   identifying, analyzing, assessing and forecasting the issues related to CC and CCR; predicting the developing trend of CC science 77 PLO4: Applying knowledge to solve the problems in CC and CCR: planning and approaching the works in field of CC; proposing the initiatives as well as the researches on CC; implementing   the solutions on science, technology, mechanism, policy and finance for CCR and development PLO5: Having skills of cooperation n with personal, agencies, organizations domestically and internationally to  solve the CC issues, communication in   works, projects on CC; and organizing, managing and administrating advanced career development PLO6: Accumulating soft skills to selfdirected and adapt to competitive   working environment such as English 78 proficiency (at level 4/6 according to English competencies Framework for Vietnam), skills; Japanese having communication skills on time management; using the basic computer skills proficiently; researching working independently; and having skills of research and development; and using technologies creatively in n academic and professional fields PLO7: Dynamic, confident, persistent, enthusiastic, and risk-taking and   management PLO8: Having responsibility social/community’s and professional morality, especially for the scientific    research results; being able to adapt to multicultural environment, ensure the 79 harmony between the stakeholders, CCR and development; having good social morality, assist the vulnerable people to climate change; compliance with the law; discipline at work and positive lifestyle; having good attitude to their career in climate change response for sustainable development PLO9: Having responsibility for n researching, creating new knowledge, and offering new ideas on climate change response in different complex situations; adapting and guiding other    people and making expert decisions on climate change response; managing research, having high responsibility in learning in order to develop professional knowledge, and creating 80 new ideas in new process; and having good life-long learning capacity n 81