- i v vi uế vii tế H ix .1 .1 h in cK 3.2 P họ 4.1 Ph 4.2 Đ ại 4.3 ng .4 .5 ườ 1.1 Tr 1.1.2 K .6 ờ i k ô - ổi (Trade – off Theory) 1.2.2 11 13 k .13 15 uế 1.4.1.1 .17 .17 tế H 1.4.2.1 18 .19 1.5.1 Chi ph 19 21 cK 1.5.1.3 M) 20 in h f 19 22 họ 24 26 2.1 ổ Đ ại ổ 26 ô 28 28 29 ng 2.2.1.1 Tr ườ 2.2.1.3 k 30 ổ 31 2.2.1.4 E) 32 2.2.1.5 .34 k 2.2.3 2.2.3.1 .35 40 .40 2.2.3.2 EPS 42 ii - 2.2.3.3 ROE 43 ô – 2014 46 2.3 HOSE 46 uế 46 48 tế H .50 50 51 h .51 ổ ổ p .52 k 3.2 57 57 ô 58 59 họ k cK in 55 3.2.2 EBIT .60 Đ ại k 62 64 .64 ng 65 65 ườ 66 66 67 Tr 68 70 70 k 72 .72 iii - k ổ 73 .75 77 79 uế 80 80 ổ 83 tế H k 86 ROE .88 91 h POM 91 92 Tr ườ ng Đ ại họ cK in iv - BCTC DN k tế H HOSE k HTK h ICR in TNDN TTS VCSH Tr ườ ng Đ ại WTO ổ họ S Đ cK TPP v ổ uế ô CAPM - S : : Đ k ô .9 k k uế ô Đ .10 ổ tế H 11 - 2014 27 2.2: G – .37 in h 2014 ô ô Tr ườ ng Đ ại họ cK - 2014 39 vi 50 - ổ 23 ô – 2014 29 ô uế k – 2014 31 ô – 2014 32 tế H ổ ổ ô ô – 2014 .33 - 2014 34 – 2014 35 in h ô .36 ô cK ô 2010 – 2014 .43 Tr ườ ng Đ ại họ ô k ô - 2014 41 - 2014 .44 - 2014 45 - 2013 45 ô - 2014 46 47 48 .50 - 2014 .51 ô - 2014 51 53 54 vii - 54 ổ ô 55 ô 57 uế – ô 58 k k M = % tế H 58 M = 30% (HSG – k k = 61 cK in 549.046.567.737 (HSG - = h 2010) .59 – 2014 62 Tr ườ ng Đ ại họ ổ viii 64 - ô k – ô ô uế ô k ổ tế H k Aswath Damodara k h k ô % % in – ổ cK % ổ ô k ô Đ ại k Tr ườ ng ô ix ô k họ ô % k ô ổ ô - Đ Đ uế k ô k họ ô k : Cô Đ ại k ổ k ô , ườ ô ô Tr % ổ ty cổ k ổ ô ô k k ô ô k ô ô ô M k k ng – , cK ô k k ô in h tế H k ổ ô % ô – - SMC VCSH NH/(D+E) E/(D+E) 874.096.159.937 68.783.245.318 543.182.549.757 58,82% 36,55% 2011 718.021.184.401 43.050.000.000 570.812.668.740 53,91% 42,86% 2012 696.565.282.745 73.668.620.867 583.905.867.815 51,44% 43,12% 2013 1.094.449.659.491 152.645.857.774 568.623.552.508 60,28% 31,32% 2014 2.664.236.412.867 125.653.780.022 576.138.993.383 419.451.910.687 2012 426.658.903.678 2013 601.875.843.572 2014 894.580.797.981 tế H 79,15% NH/(D+E) 17,12% E/(D+E) 802.450.111.044 44,38% 54,55% 8.456.974.240 736.392.795.711 36,03% 63,25% 1.208.134.240 773.431.236.352 35,52% 64,38% 962.216.873.778 38,48% 61,52% 1.076.234.732.823 45,39% 54,61% cK 2011 15.705.814.240 Đ ại họ 652.762.922.505 in h VCSH 2010 uế 2010 NH/(D+E) E/(D+E) 528.735.795.232 4.496.208.000 581.401.318.821 47,44% 52,16% 2011 704.196.738.260 523.614.771.454 57,35% 42,65% 2012 1.677.563.900.314 318.515.646.309 658.041.479.090 63,21% 24,79% 2013 1.587.252.687.370 201.828.233.137 631.458.122.290 65,57% 26,09% 2014 1.408.303.688.480 85.140.819.965 653.834.650.154 65,59% 30,45% Tr ng 2010 ườ VCSH 79 - 5.1 ô STT 8.887.072.923 ờ 681.910.956 tế H 323.700.172 11.412.372 ổ 9.904.096.423 h uế EBIT 267.508.324.927 DOL [7 = (5 + 6)/6] 1.037 cK in u n ổ họ 5.2 2010 Đ ại (1) (3) = [(1)+(2)]/(2) 9.904.096.423 267.508.324.927 1,037 11.208.846.615 252.883.638.295 1,044 2012 24.009.467.913 103.485.615.381 1,232 2013 50.734.932.814 95.449.723.391 1,532 65.341.659.563 73.586.532.274 1,888 ườ ng 2011 2014 Tr EBIT (2) POM (1) EBIT (2) (3) = [(1)+(2)]/(2) 2010 80 241.524.907.387 857.421.208.377 1,282 - 244.097.944.908 687.858.777.548 1,355 2012 288.008.518.894 305.550.985.200 1,943 2013 336.054.114.562 101.145.692.373 4,322 2014 337.820.566.200 217.798.304.712 2,551 EBIT (2) tế H (1) uế 2011 (3) = [(1)+(2)]/(2) 7.223.131.947 67.193.770.092 1,107 2011 12.805.881.421 72.758.952.545 1,176 2012 11.786.056.870 70.885.864.930 1,166 2013 12.628.565.700 63.036.487.435 1,200 2014 12.378.941.288 37.421.336.062 1,331 EBIT (2) (3) = [(1)+(2)]/(2) 366.031.045.158 1,415 2011 230.380.618.102 388.118.592.882 1,594 2012 311.737.373.339 688.659.798.633 1,453 2013 338.368.591.160 786.903.098.730 1,430 2014 354.516.590.836 612.708.970.667 1,579 ườ Tr (1) 152.071.726.357 ng 2010 Đ ại họ cK in h 2010 81 - (3) EBIT (2) (3) = [(1)+(2)]/(2) 23.759.698.048 135.684.024.792 1,175 2011 37.988.890.821 126.202.130.798 1,301 2012 61.424.722.660 82.167.752.146 1,748 2013 47.463.872.536 61.111.427.022 2014 58.998.347.114 54.255.864.610 tế H 1,777 2,087 h in TLH cK EBIT (2) (3) = [(1)+(2)]/(2) 12.862.442.731 123.421.075.679 1,104 2011 13.340.540.273 85.231.084.161 1,157 2012 12.049.155.564 79.165.415.002 1,152 2013 19.936.607.694 76.568.257.249 1,260 21.090.939.457 120.273.675.093 1,175 ườ ng Đ ại họ 2010 2014 Tr uế 2010 EBIT (2) (3) = [(1)+(2)]/(2) 2010 36.862.531.290 160.841.971.025 1,229 2011 36.241.441.187 82.417.416.733 1,440 2012 73.535.207.644 117.336.660.280 1,627 2013 122.655.644.022 124.781.878.153 1,983 82 - 99.906.314.929 2014 k 120.798.144.720 1,827 ổ k HTK/TTS (3) ổ uế (3) = (1)/(2) 1.449.679.577.079 1.966.986.860.583 2011 1.022.724.015.592 1.808.997.506.468 56,54% 2012 936.438.103.645 1.912.376.457.395 48,97% 2013 1.062.204.700.037 2.278.836.585.962 46,61% 2014 1.100.355.683.129 2.444.468.482.690 2011 h in họ 54,17% HTK/TTS (3) (3) = (1)/(2) 7.664.317.156.534 32,21% 2.530.662.371.857 8.673.455.210.249 29,18% 2.216.768.458.782 8.805.461.019.636 25,17% ng 2012 ổ 45,01% 2.468.991.540.031 Đ ại 2010 k cK POM 73,70% tế H 2010 2.047.379.643.275 7.494.243.256.938 27,32% 2014 3.643.112.512.234 9.504.469.457.806 38,33% Tr ườ 2013 83 30,44% - k HTK/TTS (3) ổ (3) = (1)/(2) 410.284.329.790 1.086.011.603.203 37,78% 2011 434.518.059.308 1.198.750.918.867 36,25% 2012 373.997.970.509 1.038.310.002.024 36,02% 2013 445.432.225.800 1.034.296.854.764 43,07% 2014 433.704.350.069 1.094.181.784.910 39,64% tế H uế 2010 ổ cK k in h 38,55% 2011 2.015.660.254.333 5.915.750.726.545 34,07% 2012 1.539.822.107.871 5.322.939.450.873 28,93% 3.019.573.646.607 7.142.170.982.172 42,28% 4.733.319.680.675 10.207.181.401.057 46,37% ườ ng Đ ại họ 1.446.169.048.203 2014 Tr (3) = (1)/(2) 2010 2013 4.549.103.510.049 HTK/TTS (3) 31,79% 36,69% k ổ HTK/TTS (3) (3) = (1)/(2) 2010 855.820.964.935 2.464.640.119.865 34,72% 2011 423.086.697.529 2.375.261.909.296 17,81% 84 - 2012 372.737.276.849 2.140.287.940.402 17,42% 2013 1.157.610.086.636 3.067.972.596.115 37,73% 2014 1.166.850.226.520 4.119.795.233.220 28,32% k tế H uế 27,20% HTK/TTS (3) ổ (3) = (1)/(2) 1.029.611.571.290 1.773.523.082.217 2011 807.929.075.210 1.500.529.160.105 53,84% 2012 578.431.551.514 1.599.380.216.066 36,17% 2013 848.363.511.455 1.981.169.577.328 42,82% 2014 963.386.100.064 2.162.608.524.401 44,55% Đ ại họ cK in h 2010 ng k 47,09% ổ HTK/TTS (3) (3) = (1)/(2) 2010 861.125.626.132 1.657.854.851.608 51,94% 2011 351.745.421.882 1.318.453.136.585 26,68% 2012 732.309.619.912 2.813.625.917.618 26,03% 2013 891.675.276.143 2.568.777.798.327 34,71% 2014 840.033.306.606 2.269.223.652.744 37,02% ườ Tr 58,05% Trung 85 35,28% - (2) (3) = (1) ( ) (1) 1.808.680.068.859 1.451.606.960.311 19.74% 2011 1.852.633.900.532 1.513.269.094.156 18.32% 2012 1.596.315.182.571 1.436.833.089.343 9.99% 2013 2.044.862.959.249 1.872.261.521.954 8.44% 2014 2.061.731.236.019 1.901.832.311.774 7.76% cK in h tế H uế 2010 (3) = (1) ( ) (1) 11.202.742.823.759 9.847.788.797.035 12,09% 2011 11.995.221.605.599 10.785.344.685.931 10,09% 2012 11.747.783.342.232 11.281.045.540.783 3,97% 9.891.226.461.080 9.543.566.740.324 3,51% 10.804.878.879.947 10.370.585.792.887 4,02% ườ ng 2014 Đ ại 2013 họ 2010 Tr HMC (2) (3) = (1) ( ) (1) 2010 4.364.101.860.876 4.233.675.779.945 2,99% 2011 6.333.163.131.742 6.154.905.802.686 2,81% 2012 4.310.812.191.940 4.171.329.127.740 3,24% 86 - 3.097.441.300.407 2.960.648.491.436 4,42% 2014 2.919.845.425.766 2.795.405.489.561 4,26% uế 2013 (1) ( ) (1) tế H (3) = 4.899.180.533.186 3.968.224.548.046 19,00% 2011 8.165.986.611.054 7.110.055.086.800 12,93% 2012 10.087.956.231.545 8.682.822.005.970 13,93% 2013 11.759.898.592.542 10.052.386.178.283 14,52% 2014 14.990.360.980.074 13.246.068.798.264 11,64% 2010 Đ ại họ cK in h 2010 (2) (3) = (1) ( ) (1) 6.857.887.544.980 6.610.285.176.939 3,61% 8.939.764.739.036 8.625.915.474.845 3,51% 2012 8.963.666.898.409 8.718.720.305.529 2,73% 2013 9.651.073.147.934 9.378.050.176.538 2,83% 10.911.449.815.122 10.585.369.048.235 2,99% ườ ng 2011 Tr 2014 87 - (2) (3) = (1) ( ) (1) 3.001.448.503.325 2.741.075.787.731 8,67% 2011 2.961.860.587.818 2.673.861.957.950 9,72% 2012 2.820.825.810.247 2.695.026.065.270 4,46% 2013 3.052.582.577.108 2.992.052.772.233 1,98% 2014 3.724.960.803.403 3.519.547.110.077 5,51% in h tế H uế 2010 cK (2) (1) ( ) (1) 3.084.162.945.387 2011 3.914.632.221.570 3.656.651.061.374 6,59% 2012 3.873.559.474.427 3.620.723.463.155 6,53% 3.416.091.904.627 3.188.310.643.216 6,67% 3.763.215.150.869 3.514.316.931.982 6,61% Đ ại 2014 họ 2010 2013 2.851.494.649.843 (3) = 7,54% ng ROE: ROE (3) Tr ườ DTL (1) (3) = (1) ( ) 2010 187.615.168.530 727.914.396.298 25,77% 2011 162.385.305.750 775.066.848.940 20,95% 2012 13.185.162.056 744.176.292.636 1,77% 88 - 2013 18.780.258.568 733.682.897.682 2,56% 2014 4.379.797.096 782.966.333.938 0,56% uế ROE (3) (1) (1) ( ) tế H (3) = 659.915.063.530 2.493,330,524,632 26.47% 2011 405.683.655.055 2.838.072,830,042 14.29% 2012 5.148.290.446 2.719.884,087,663 0.19% 2013 -219.551.784.312 2.487.106,054,657 2014 -25.318.424.436 cK in h 2010 họ 2.376.742,420,047 2010 Đ ại (1) -8.83% -1.07% ROE (3) (3) = (1) ( ) 35.188.140.544 303.696.324.900 11,59% 82.048.058.256 323.676.173.316 25,35% 2012 27.192.340.597 343.118.699.857 7,93% 2013 20.864.875.362 339.717.657.122 6,14% 2014 23.458.744.768 334.042.321.761 7,02% Tr ườ ng 2011 89 - ROE (3) (1) (3) = (1) ( ) 215.379.211.513 1.325.413.722.002 16,25% 2011 160.168.374.901 1.747.112.063.134 9,17% 2012 368.103.367.888 1.900.626.260.856 19,37% 2013 580.839.649.877 2.114.481.457.471 27,47% 2014 410.249.008.259 2.294.769.816.148 17,88% (1) cK in h tế H uế 2010 (3) = (1) ( ) 2010 82.230.265.558 2011 73.123.471.410 556.997.609.249 13,13% 2012 69.336.189.515 577.359.268.278 12,01% 25.097.408.260 576.264.710.162 4,36% 33.545.127.095 572.381.272.946 5,86% họ 426.177.573.315 ườ ng 2014 Đ ại 2013 Tr ROE (3) 19,29% ROE (3) (1) (3) = (1) ( ) 2010 57.318.296.686 781.290.324.535 7,34% 2011 27.474.754.874 769.421.453.378 3,57% 2012 42.225.508.376 754.912.016.032 5,59% 90 - 2013 112.199.631.381 867.824.055.065 12,93% 2014 74.164.431.959 1.019.225.803.301 7,28% uế ROE (3) (1) (1) ( ) tế H (3) = 110.415.394.363 508.423.319.813 21,72% 2011 27.213.452.633 552.508.045.138 4,93% 2012 -17.775.912.364 590.828.125.272 -3,01% 2013 -27.787.922.448 644.749.800.690 2014 22.376.527.864 Dupont: Đ ại ườ ng ổ ổ ổ Tr in 642.646.386.222 5.148.290.446 11.747.783.342.232 8.673.455.210.249 8.805.461.019.636 8.739.458.114.943 2.855.059.480.137 2.584.708.695.188 2.719.884.087.663 ổ ổ ROE = (1)*(2)*(3) 91 3,48% họ 9.1 -4,31% cK h 2010 0,044% 1,344 3,213 0,19% -2,220% 1,214 3,277 -8,83% in h ổ tế H ổ ổ ổ -219.551.784.312 9.891.226.461.080 8.805.461.019.636 7.494.243.256.938 8.149.852.138.287 2.584.708.695.188 2.389.503.414.126 2.487.106.054.657 (1) ổ (2) (3) ROE = (1)*(2)*(3) uế - Đ ại họ cK -25.318.424.436 10.804.878.879.947 ổ 7.494.243.256.938 ổ t 9.504.469.457.806 ổ 8.499.356.357.372 2.389.503.414.126 2.375.528.792.314 2.382.516.103.220 (1) Doanh thu ổ (2) ổ (3) ROE = (1)*(2)*(3) -0,234% 1,271 3,567 -1,06% Tr ườ ng 9.2 92 ổ ổ ổ 27.213.452.633 3.914,632.221.570 1.657,854.851.608 1.318,453.136.585 1.488,153.994.097 581.401.318.821 523.614.771.454 552.508.045.138 (1) 0,695% - ổ (2) (3) ổ 2,631 2,693 4,93% cK ổ tế H in h ổ ổ ổ -17.775.912.364 3.873.559.474.427 1.318.453.136.585 2.813.625.917.618 2.066.039.527.102 523.614.771.454 658.041.479.090 590.828.125.272 (1) ổ (2) (3) ROE = (1)*(2)*(3) uế ROE = (1)*(2)*(3) Tr ườ ng họ Đ ại ổ ổ ổ -27.787.922.448 3.416.091.904.627 2.813.625.917.618 2.568.777.798.327 2.691.201.857.973 658.041.479.090 631.458.122.290 644.749.800.690 (1) ổ (2) (3) ROE = (1)*(2)*(3) -0,459% 1,875 3,497 -3,01% 93 ổ -0,813% 1,269 4,174 -4,31%