(Luận văn) socioeconomic determinants of fertility in hcm city

ng THE UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS HOCHIMINH CITY VIETNAM hi ep INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL STUDIES THE HAGUE THE NETHERLANDS w n lo THE VIETNAM-NETHERLANDS PROJECT FOR M.A PROGRAMME IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS ad th yj uy ip la SOCIOECONOMIC DETERMINANTS an lu n va OF FERTILITY IN HOCHIMINH CITY ll fu oi m at nh BY NGUYEN LUONG HONG HANH z z vb jm ht k IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF ARTS IN ECONOMICS OF DEVELOPMENT m co l gm an Lu SUPERVISOR: HOANG THI CHINH, Ph.D n va te re HOCHIMINH CITY, 2003 ng CERTIFICATION hi ep "I certify that the substance of this dissertation has not already been submitted for any w degree and is not being currently submitted for any other degree n lo ad I certify that to the best of my knowledge any help received in preparing this dissertation, th yj and all sources used, have been acknowledged in this dissertation" uy ip la an lu n va ll fu oi m at nh z z vb k jm ht m co l gm an Lu n va t re i ng ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS hi ep First of all, I would like to express an enormous appreciation to my academic supervisor w Dr Hoang Thi Chinh for her invaluable guidance along the way ofmakin·g this thesis n lo ad Great gratitude is also expressed to Dr Karel Jansen and Dr Youdi Schipper for their th yj academic advices on the thesis proposal uy ip Dr Nguyen Thi Thieng, who gave me huge support in terms of courage, suggestions and la comments from the first stages of doing this research to its completion, is as well truly an lu appreciated n va ll fu I am very grateful to all project teachers and staff for their useful lectures, material and oi m services nh at Many thanks are owned to my classmates, especially Ms Luong Thi Chung Thuy and z z Mr Luong Vinh Quoc Duy, who lent me a great helping hand in collecting data for this vb k jm ht research gm Last but not least, I thank my dear family for their spiritual encouragement and support m co l during the time of doing this work an Lu n va t re ii ng TABLE OF CONTENTS hi ep CERTIFICATION i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ii w n TABLE OF CONTENTS iii lo ad LIST OF TABLES ~ v th yj LIST OF FIGURES vi uy ABBREVIATIONS vii ip la ABSTRACT viii an lu Chapter 1: INTRODUCTION va 1.1 PROBLEM STATEMENT n 1.2 OBJECTIVE OF THE THESIS fu ll 1.3 RESEARCH QUESTIONS m oi 1.4 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY nh 1.5 ORGANIZATION OF THE THESIS at Chapter II: LITERATURE REVIEW AND EMPIRICAL STUDIES z z II.l FERTILITY AND ITS MEASURES vb II.2 MODELS OF FERTILITY DETERMINANTS , ht jm II.2.1 The household demand model k II.2.2 Synthesis model 12 gm 1!.2.3 Bongaarts model 15 l II.2.4 Reasons for choosing the research model 16 co II.3 EMPIRICAL STUDIES ON FERTILITY DETERMINANTS 17 m an Lu II.4 CHAPTER OUTLINE 22 Chapter III: FERTILITY IN VIETNAM AND HCMC 23 iii t 11!.2.2 HCMC 27 re III.2.1 Vietnam 26 n III.2 POPULATION 26 va III.1 HCMC GENERAL CONDITIONS 23 ng III.2.3 Policies on population and fertility 28 hi 11!.3 FEATURES OF FERTILITY IN VIETNAM AND HCMC 30 ep 11!.3.1 Trends 30 111.3.2 Socioeconomic differentials 32 w 11!.3 CHAPTER OUTLINE 37 n lo Chapter IV: DETERMINANTS OF FERTILITY IN HCMC 38 ad IV.1 ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK AND RESEARCH METHODS 38 th yj IV.1.1 Analytical Framework 38 uy IV 1.2 Research Methods 41 ip IV.2 DETERMINANTS OF FERTILITY IN HCMC ~ 44 la IV.2.1 Descriptive Statistics 44 lu an IV.2.2 Regression Analysis 52 va IV.3 CHAPTER OUTLINE 57 n Chapter V: CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS 59 fu ll V.1 CONCLUSION 59 m oi V.2 RECOMMENDATIONS 60 at nh V.3 FURTHER RESEARCH 61 APPENDIX A - QUESTIONAIRE 62 z z vb APPENDIX B 64 jm ht APPENDIX C ~ 65 k BIBLIOGRAPHY 66 m co l gm an Lu n va t re iv ng LIST OF TABLES hi ep Table III.l: Education Levels HCMC, 1989-1999 25 Table III.2: Levels of education of population aged over five years HCMC, 1979- w n 1999 25 lo ad Table III.3: TFRs HCMC, 1989-1999 31 th yj Table !11.4: ASFRs and TFRs by urban and rural areas Vietnam, 1989-1999 33 uy Table 111.5: ASFRs and TFRs by urban and rural areas HCMC, 1999 33 ip la Table iV.l: Calculation for sample size 43 lu an Table IV.2: Description ofvariables 45 va Table IV.3: Distribution ofCEB 46 n fu ll Table IV.4: Relationship between fertility and completed years of schooling 50 m oi Table IV.5: Relationship between fertility and household income 51 nh at Table IV.6: Regression results for CEB 53 z z vb k jm ht m co l gm an Lu n va t re v LIST OF FIGURES ng hi ep Figure III.l: Trends ofTFRs Vietnam, 1959-1999 30 Figure III.2: Natural Increase Rates(%) HCMC, 1975-1999 31 w n Figure III.3: Fertility differentials by education attainment Vietnam, 1999 34 lo ad Figure III.4: Fertility differentials by occupation category Vietnam, 1999 35 th Figure III.5: Fertility differentials between rural and urban by quintile 36 yj uy Figure IV.l: Fertility changes between rural and urban by age group 48 ip la Figure IV.2 Fertility changes between rural and urban by women's schooling 49 lu an Figure IV.3: Relationship between fertility and completed years of schooling 50 n va Figure IV.4: Relationship between fertility and household income 51 ll fu oi m at nh z z vb k jm ht m co l gm an Lu n va te re vi ng ABBREVIATIONS hi ep w ASFR Age-Specific Fertility Rate CBR Crude Birth Rate n Children Ever Born lo CEB ad General Fertility Rate th GFR ip HoChiMinh City la HCMC Steering Committee for Population and Housing Census an lu HSCPH General Statistics Office uy HCMC yj GSO 01/4/1999 n va HoChiMinh City Statistics Office NCPF National Committee for Population and Family Planning OLS Ordinary Least Squares TFR Total Fertility Rate VNDHS Vietnam Demographic and Health Survey VLSS Vietnam Living Standard Survey ll fu HSO oi m at nh z z vb k jm ht m co l gm an Lu n va t re vii ng ABSTRACT hi ep This thesis examines the effect of female schooling and household income on fertility in w HoChiMinh City using data collected from the personal survey in 2003 The first method n lo of descriptive statistics presents the correlations between fertility and female schooling, ad household income and location by summarized data and graphs The second method of th yj regression analysis estimates a reduced form equation in which the number of children uy ip ever born is regressed on the mother's age and completed years of schooling, household la income and area variables The equation is estimated using ordinary least squares (OLS) an lu n va The study reveals some findings as follows: schooling reduces fertility, while income ll fu raises it Urban residence is negatively associated with fertility Parts of population who oi m still have high fertility rates are of low levels of education or are living in rural districts at nh From these findings, some recommendations are suggested for enhancing population and z family planning programs in order to reach the objective of fertility reduction z vb k jm ht m co l gm an Lu n va t re viii ng Chapter I: INTRODUCTION hi ep 1.1 PROBLEM STATEMENT w Population is one of the biggest concerns to development economists and policy makers n lo ad because of its extensive impact on the economic development (Ray, 1998:295) th Population growth is strongly determined by fertility level (Tran, 1999:106) The world yj uy history has experienced fluctuation in population growth and fertility level, such as an ip unprecedented and unanticipated 'baby boom' followed by an almost equally startling la an lu 'baby bust' And population controlling policies have also been changing from time to n va time, different from one country to another, from incentives to childbearing in the ll fu developed countries facing low fertility in the Great Depression to measures of lowering oi m the fertility rate in the less-developed countries in the post-World War II era (Eatwell et at nh al, 1987 :302) Studying fertility behavior will provide us insights into how population is z changing around us Moreover, a better understanding of fertility level and pattern will z vb significantly assist the process of policy making Policies influencing fertility rate could ht k jm in turn have an effect on population growth On the other hand, according to Nguyen gm (200 1), mastering of fertility level and pattern will provide more accurate projections For co l example, to estimate budget on primary education, the analysts need to figure out the m number of children going to primary school, which could be accessed through fertility an Lu studies Projection of labor force is likewise worked out (Nguyen, 2001:1 ) t re (NCPF, 1999:3); and the current population growth is not in line with the development n fertility rate attribute to a wide range of social, economic, and ecological problems va In the case of Vietnam, a developing country, explosive population growth and high high education attainment indicates high opportunity cost of women spending on child ng hi bearing and rearing and the demand for children decreases On the supply side, women's ep education can have an effect on lifetime fertility by delaying age at marriage, or age of w first birth Additionally, educated women have better knowledge to maintain their n lo ad children's health, raise child survival and increase childspacing Another explanation th cited in Bouvier L F et al (1999) is that education provides women with alternatives to yj uy childbearing as a means of achieving personal satisfaction and social recognition, or it ip increases their exposure to outside ideas All of these make a substantially inverse effect la an lu of education on fertility n va * Household income: fu ll The INCOME variable is significant at the percent level, but unexpectedly it is of a oi m positive sign, or household income raises fertility In comparison, the income impact was nh at found negative by Nguyen and Ainsworth However the size of income effect in this z ~ z thesis is relatively small By increasing the household income one million units, Vietnam vb ~ jm ht Dong, more, CEB rises 3.14% The theory suggests that as a normal goods, demand for k children increases with higher income, but this weak effect could be offset by price effect gm or quantity-quality tradeoff In this case, however, the strong negative effect is not l m co observed High income is positively linked to fertility It means that there is no quantity- an Lu quality tradeoff or price effect or they are not strong enough to outweigh the positive effect of high income The increase in income may might lead to easier child bearing and n va rearing, better nutrition and thereby higher fecundity of a wife, or to shorter breastfeeding been seen, the distance in urban and rural income in the working sample is not much 56 te re as baby food substitutes become available and affordable On the other hand? as we have ng large, rural households can earn much money but most of this does not come from wages hi ep or women labor Almost rural women not come to work, so their opportunity costs of child care are still lower than urban women's w n lo * Urban residence: ad th The AREA of the household has significantly negative effect on the number of children yj uy That is not different from Ainsworth's findings and also Nguyen's Fertility differentials ip by urban-rural residence are substantial Women living in urban districts give fewer la an lu births during their lifetime than women in rural These differentials may be due to the following reasons: firstly, access to heath care facilities in rural areas is limited, meaning va n that availability of contraceptives to rural people is not as broad as it is to metropolitans; ll fu oi m secondly, urban areas provide more employment opportunity; both of these reasons raise at nh opportunity cost of children and then reduce demand for them Moreover, in a rural setting, children are supposed to offer hands to help their parents make a living, while z z vb children in urban areas require more investment such as food, school fee, scare housing ht or transportation to school These reasons make children more expensive to urban jm k households than rural ones l.c gm IV.3 CHAPTER OUTLINE om an Lu The analytical framework of the thesis is based on the household demand model of fertility A reduced-form equation is estimated using OLS method Data serving for this n va research was from personal survey via interviewing 141 ever-married women aged 15-49 schooling and household income are explored via descriptive statistics and regression 57 te re Relationships between the number of children ever born and completed years of analysis The study reveals some important findings First, education has a negative effect ng hi on fertility as expected while income is unexpectedly related to fertility with a positive ep effect The average number of children increases by age of women, and those who living w in urban areas have fewer children than those who in rural areas From these findings, n lo some recommendations will be suggested in the next chapter ad th yj uy ip la an lu n va ll fu oi m at nh z z vb k jm ht om l.c gm an Lu n va te re 58 Chapter V: CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS ng hi ep V.l CONCLUSION w According to Strategy of Population and Family Planning for the period 2001-2010, n lo population task is an important part of the national strategy of development, one of key ad th elements to enhance quality of life of each citizen, each household and the whole society, yj uy decisively contributing to implement industrialization and modernization One of the ip most important factors deciding the population movement is fertility rate Therefore, the la an lu key objective of the Strategy is fertility reduction HCMC is a big city of the country, it is also the most populous city Although having low fertility rate of only 1.4 per child, the n va population size of the city is still large and there still exist parts of population where the ll fu oi m fertility rates are quite high The research examines the main socioeconomic determinants at nh of fertility in HCMC in order to find out such high-fertility areas With data from z personal survey, and method of descriptive statistics and regression analysis, the author z vb has figured out some findings as follows: jm ht Female schooling is associated with lower fertility The higher level of education a k l gm woman receives, the fewer children ever born she has Unexpectedly, income raises fertility, although the variable is significant at percent level Variables of age and urban m co residence were controlled for schooling and income in the regression model The average an Lu number of children ever born increases by age of women People who live in the rural n va areas have a tendency of having more children than who live in the urban districts te re 59 V.2 RECOMMENDATIONS ng hi ep The effective implementation of Strategy of Population and Family Planning to the year 2000 resulted in rewardable achievements The Strategy in the case of period 2001-2010 w n was issued to overcome existing shortcomings in order to reach the planned objectives lo ad One of the key objectives of the Strategy is fertility reduction In order to complete the th tasks, following recommendations are proposed: yj uy ip The high priority should be given to concentrate to reducing fertility in the alertly high- la fertility rate areas These areas could be population of low education or rural setting an lu n va From the research, education has a strong effect on the number of children a woman has, ll fu therefore, enhancing the level of education of women and continuing invest in education oi m of women is a must for the objective of fertility reduction Relating to this task, there are at nh some suggestions as follows: z z There still exists a part of population who not receive any schooling, in which women vb jm ht account more The authorities should implement the program of mass education, at least at the primary level, and then continue to upgrade the higher level Alongside with k education, forms of propagandization appreciably influence om l.c reproductive behavior of low educated people would gm schooling an Lu One of the outcomes of this study is that there was no quantity-quality tradeoff children of higher "quality" 60 te awareness of the one or two children norm, advocating the small size family with few re with high quality Therefore, family planning programs should focus to raise people n va influencing fertility behavior Parents still accept a large family in stead of fewer children The difference in fertility rate between rural and urban areas proves that, apart from ng hi inherent negative effects to society and environment, urbanization is a good trend to bring ep down the fertility rate In other words, improving the living conditions especially in the w rural districts, industrializing the economy, reducing the distance between urban and rural n lo areas should be considered as sub-targets on the route of stabilizing population of ad th Vietnam yj uy V.3 FURTHER RESEARCH ip la an lu This thesis explores socioeconomic determinants of fertility, among these factors, women's education is found the main variable for reducing fertility However, because of va n constrains of time and resources, several aspects of the matter were not elaborated, ll fu oi m initiating further researches Firstly, among limitations of household demand model, the at nh assumption of the 'family' utility should be eliminated In reality, husband and wife not always have the same opinion on reproductive topic A bargaining model should be z z vb applied to combine both preferences of father and mother for the demand for children ht Secondly, the number of observations collected just satisfies an appropriate sample size jm k to analyze fertility determinants for entire sample It is not many enough to observe gm co l variables for subsamples of urban or rural areas, schooling specification or age cohorts The impacts of the influencing factors would be much clearer with these specific m an Lu analyses Finally, son preference is one of important social variables affecting reproductive behavior, especially for the case of an Asian society like Vietnam n va Examining this factor could suggest more effective policy implications te re 61 APPENDIX A - QUESTIONAIRE ng hi This questionnaire is used to interview women who satisfy the following requirements: ep - Living in HCMC w - Ever-married n lo - Aged from 15 to 49 ad th yj Respondent: la an lu Date of interview: Interviewer: I Religion: ip Ethnicity: I Tel: uy Address: n va ll fu 1a How many members are there in your family? : m oi 1b Among them, how many have earnings? at nh 1c Among them, how many adults (over eighteen)? z What is your marital status? z 0 0 vb k jm ht gm Married Widowed Divorced Separated Other an Lu te 62 re What is your occupation? n How many completed years of schooling you have? va T m co l How many children you have ? How many sons/ daughers ? How old they are ? List in oder of age ng How much is your average monthly income? (Fill the blank or check a box) hi ep w n Less than 500,000 VND 500,000 VND- 1,000,000 VND 1,000,001 VND- 2,000,000 VND 2,000,001 VND- 3,000,000 VND 3,000,001 VND- 4,000,000 VND Greater than 4,000,000 VND lo 0 0 0 ad th yj uy How many completed years of schooling does your husband have? ~ ip What is your husband's occupation? la an lu How much is your husban's average monthly income? (Fill the blank or check a box) va n ll fu oi m 0 0 0 at nh Less than 500,000 VND 500,000 VND- 1,000,000 VND 1,000,001 VND- 2,000,000 VND 2,000,001 VND- 3,000,000 VND 3,000,001 VND- 4,000,000 VND Greater than 4,000,000 VND z z 10 Apart from mentioned incomes, does your household have any other incomes? How much? vb k jm ht m co l gm 11 How much is your household's average monthly expenditure? an Lu 12 Does your household have electricity? n va 13 Does your household have a television set? te re ***** 63 APPENDIXB ng reg CEB AGE SCHOOLING INCOME AREA hi Source I ss df MS -+ ep Model I Residual I 59.4350931 67.5010771 136 Number of obs F( 4, 136} Prob > F R-squared Adj R-squared Root MSE 14.8587733 496331449 -+ w Total I 126.93617 140 90668693 141 29.94 0.0000 0.4682 4526 70451 n lo ad CEB I Coef Std Err t [95% Conf Interval) P>ltl -+ th AGE SCHOOLING INCOME AREA cons yj I I I I I 0092778 0164185 3.11e-08 1558775 411818 uy 0698024 -.0496063 7.16e-08 -.4137705 -.1385604 7.52 -3.02 2.30 -2.65 -0.34 0.000 0.003 0.023 0.009 0.737 0514549 -.0820748 1.01e-08 -.7220278 -.9529555 0881498 -.0171377 1.33e-07 -.1055132 6758346 ip la ovtest an lu Ramsey RESET test using powers of the fitted values of CEB Ho: model has no omitted variables F(3, 133} 1.84 Prob > F = 0.1436 n va corr, coef fu INCOME AREA ll AGE SCHOOL-G cons 0000 -0.1954 -0 5714 -0.3552 0000 0.0600 -0.1027 0000 -0.0509 at 0000 0.1375 -0.1065 0320 -0.9061 nh I I I I I oi AGE SCHOOLING INCOME AREA cons m -+ - 1.0000 z z vif VIF vb Variable 1/VIF 0.628037 0.659086 0.952610 0.957656 k gm 1.59 1.52 1.05 1.04 jm SCHOOLING AREA INCOME AGE ht -+ -+ -1.30 l Mean VIF m co predict u (option xb assumed; fitted values} Skewness/Kurtosis tests for Normality Pr(Skewness} Pr(Kurtosis} adj chi2(2} joint -Prob>chi2 0.453 0.043 4.73 0.0940 t re u I n ~ + - va Variable I an Lu sktest u hettest Cook-Weisberg test for heteroskedasticity using fitted values of CEB Ho: Constant variance chi2(1} 25.46 Prob > chi2 0.0000 64 APPENDIXC ng reg LNCEB AGE SCHOOLING INCOME AREA hi Source I ss df MS -+ ep Model I Residual I 14.9457973 14.7464738 136 Number of obs 136) F( 4' Prob > F R-squared Adj R-squared Root MSE 73644932 108429954 -+ w Total I 29.6922711 140 21208765 141 34.46 0.0000 0.5034 0.4887 32929 n lo LNCEB I Coef Std Err t [95% Conf Interval) P>ltl ad -+ th AGE SCHOOLING INCOME AREA cons yj uy 0369954 -.0169488 3.14e-08 -.2494971 -.6043014 0043364 007674 1.45e-08 0728572 1924837 8.53 -2.21 2.16 -3.42 -3.14 0.000 0.029 0.032 0.001 0.002 0284198 -.0321246 2.7le-09 -.3935766 -.9849497 045571 -.0017729 6.0le-08 -.1054176 -.2236531 ip la ovtest an lu Ramsey RESET test using powers of the fitted values of LNCEB Ho: model has no omitted variables F(3, 133) 0.40 Prob > F = 0.7562 va coef n corr, fu INCOME AREA ll AGE SCHOOL-G cons 1.0000 0.0600 -0.1027 1.0000 -0.0509 at 1.0000 -0.1954 -0.5714 -0.3552 nh 1.0000 0.1375 -0.1065 0.0320 -0.9061 oi AGE SCHOOLING INCOME AREA cons m -+ - 1.0000 z z vif VIF vb Variable 1/VIF 0.628037 0.659086 0.952610 0.957656 k gm 1.59 1.52 1.05 1.04 jm SCHOOLING AREA INCOME AGE ht -+ -+ -1.30 l Mean VIF m co predict u (option xb assumed; fitted values) Skewness/Kurtosis tests for Normality Pr(Skewness) Pr(Kurtosis) adj chi2(2) joint -Prob>chi2 0.518 0.018 5.80 0.0550 t hettest re u n -+ - va Variable I an Lu sktest u Cook-Weisberg test for heteroskedasticity using fitted values of LNCEB Ho: Constant variance chi2(1) 0.34 Prob > chi2 0.5583 65 BIBLIOGRAPHY ng hi ep Ainsworth, M (1989) 'Socio-economic Determinants of Fertility in· Cote d'Ivoire' LSMS Working Paper No 53 Washington D.C.: The World Bank w n lo ad Bardhan P and C Udry (1999) Development Microeconomics Oxford: Oxford th University Press yj uy Benefo K D and T P Schultz (1994), 'Determinants of Fertility and Child Mortality in ip la Cote d'Ivoire and Ghana' LSMS Working Paper No 103 Washington D.C.: The World an lu Bank va n Bouvier L F and J T Bertrand (1999) World Population - 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