(Luận văn) impacts of climate change on food security in vietnam

t to ng UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS HO CHI MINH CITY VIETNAM hi INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL STUDIES THE HAGUE THE NETHERLANDS ep w n VIETNAM - NETHERLANDS PROGRAMME FOR M.A IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS lo ad ju y th yi pl n ua al n va IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON FOOD SECURITY IN VIETNAM ll fu oi m at nh z BY z k jm ht vb HUỲNH THỊ NHI om l.c gm MASTER OF ARTS IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS an Lu n va ey t re HO CHI MINH CITY, January 2013 th t to ng UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS HO CHI MINH CITY VIETNAM hi INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL STUDIES THE HAGUE THE NETHERLANDS ep w n lo VIETNAM - NETHERLANDS PROGRAMME FOR M.A IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS ad ju y th yi pl ua al n IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON FOOD SECURITY IN VIETNAM n va ll fu oi m nh A thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of at MASTER OF ARTS IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS z z k jm ht vb om l.c HUỲNH THỊ NHI gm By n va Ph.D NGUYỄN HỮU DŨNG an Lu Academic Supervisor ey t re th HO CHI MINH CITY, January 2013 t to TABLE OF CONTENTS ng hi ep DECLARATION i ACKNOWLEDGEMENT ii w n ABSTRACT iii lo ad LIST OF TABLES iv ju y th LIST OF FIGURES v ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS vi yi pl Chapter al ua INTRODUCTION n 1.1 PROBLEM STATEMENT va n 1.2 RESEARCH OBJECTIVIVES fu ll 1.3 RESEARCH QUESTIONS m oi 1.4 RESEARCH CONTRIBUTIONS at nh 1.5 ORGANIZATION OF THE STUDY z Chapter z vb LITERATURE REVIEW jm ht 2.1 BASIC CONCEPT AND DEFINITION k 2.1.1 Greenhouse gases (GHGs) l.c gm 2.1.2 Emissions 2.1.3 Climate Change om 2.1.4 Climate Change Scenario an Lu 2.1.5 Sea Level Rises 10 2.1.6 Food Security 10 2.2.2 Empirical Studies 17 th 2.2.1 Theoretical Literature 11 ey 2.2 THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK 11 t re 2.1.8 Simulation 11 n va 2.1.7 Scenario 11 t to 2.2.3 Conceptual Framework 24 ng 2.3 CHAPTER REMARKS 26 hi ep Chapter 26 w CURRENT SITUATION OF FOOD DEMAND, FOOD SUPPLY AND CLIMATE n lo CHANGE IN VIETNAM 27 ad 3.1 CURRENT SITUATION OF FOOD DEMAND, AND FOOD SUPPLY 27 y th 3.1.1 Paddy Production 27 ju yi 3.1.2 Domestic Rice Consumption and Export 32 pl 3.2 CURRENT SITUATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE 35 al n ua 3.3 CHAPTER REMARKS 35 va Chapter 39 n ll fu METHODOLOGY AND DATA 39 oi m 4.1 METHODOLOGY 39 nh 4.2 SOURCE OF DATA 43 at 4.3 CHAPTER REMARKS 44 z z ht vb Chapter 45 jm DATA ANALYSIS AND RESULTS 45 k 5.1 IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON RICE YIELD IN MEKONG DELTA 45 gm 5.2 CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS AND FOOD SECURITY SCENARIOS IN l.c VIETNAM UP TO 2030 49 om 5.3 CHAPTER REMARKS 58 an Lu Chapter 59 REFERENCES 63 th 6.3 LIMITATIONS AND FURTHER RESEASRCHES 61 ey 6.2 RECOMMENDATIONS 60 t re 6.1 SUMMARY OF THE STUDY AND CONCLUSIONS 59 n va CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 59 t to APPENDIX 69 ng hi ep w n lo ad ju y th yi pl n ua al n va ll fu oi m at nh z z k jm ht vb om l.c gm an Lu n va ey t re th t to ng DECLARATION hi ep w I declare this is the scientific research of my own Data collection and analysis in this n lo paper is truthful, not distorted This paper is not copied from the others In my research, ad y th I have used some data from previous studies which were studied by official ju organizations For these data, I have already written the sources clearly below in tables yi as well as in paper’s Appendix and References pl al n ua I hereby undertake responsibility for the contents of my thesis And I certify that this n submitted for any other degree va study has not already been submitted for any degree and is not being currently ll fu oi m nh at Ho Chi Minh City, January 2013 z z k jm ht vb om l.c gm Huynh Thi Nhi an Lu n va ey t re th i t to ACKNOWLEDGEMENT ng hi ep Fist of all, I would like to thank my supervisor, Dr Nguyen Huu Dung for his w intellectual support and his wonderful inspiration I am grateful for his support and n lo kindness in helping me at every stage of my research His knowledge about rural ad y th development and environment issues has helped me to understand and enjoy those ju issues The suggestions and comments from him are significant which was improved yi my research Without his understanding and encouragement, I would not complete this pl ua al paper Secondly, my thanks go to Dr Nguyen Van Ngai, who was given some hints for n my topic as well as methodology in the first step va n In addition, I also would like to thank Dr Ha Thuc Vien and Dr Tran Tien Khai who fu ll taught me the deep knowledge of the economic environment as well as inspired me to oi m environment issues at nh Finally, my thanks go to my family and my friends who were at my side and supported z z to me throughout this program I would not finished my course unless their k jm ht vb encouragements om l.c gm an Lu n va ey t re th ii t to ABSTRACT ng hi ep This paper studies how climate change impacts on national food security Econometric model is used to estimate from the secondary data as pool data of Mekong Delta in w period 2001-2010 The Cobb-Douglas functional form is applied for the average yield n lo function The result indicates that in Cobb-Douglass model, as the temperature rises by ad y th 1%, the estimated decrease the rice yield is 0.45% and the rice yield also decreases ju 0.15% on average when the precipitation increases 1%, holding all other factors yi constant The qualitative analysis and simulations with different scenarios are also pl ua al applied to build on Vietnam’s food security scenarios up to 2030 The findings show n that Vietnam has to face the lack of rice for consuming up to 2030 in IPSL-2030 n va climate change scenario This country needs to add 4.2 million tons of rice to ensure ll fu food security at the national level Meanwhile, in GISS-2030 and MORNE-2030 oi m scenarios, Vietnam is still ensure for domestic consume, and the surplus rice for at nh export in these two scenarios are 0.4 and 1.5 million tons, respectively z z k jm ht vb om l.c gm an Lu n va ey t re th iii t to LIST OF TABLES ng hi ep Table 2.1: Summary of Empirical Studies about Impacts of Climate Change on w Agriculture and Food Security 20 n lo Table 3.1: Paddy Yield by Regions of Vietnam, 1995-2010 31 ad ju y th Table 3.2: Domestic Rice Consumption in Vietnam, 1995-2010 32 yi Table 3.3: Rice Export Volume of Vietnam, 1995-2010 33 pl ua al Table 5.1: Descriptive Statistics of Data .45 n Table 5.2: Panel Unit Test Results 47 va n Table 5.3: Estimation Results .47 fu ll Table 5.4: Average Annual Temperature increase in Degrees by Agro-ecological oi m Zones 49 nh at Table 5.5: Average % Changes in Annual Precipitation by Agro-ecological Zones 50 z z Table 5.6: Rice Yield Change under Climate Change Scenarios 50 ht vb jm Table 5.7: Estimated Rice Planted Area versus Impact of Climate Change up to k 2030 51 gm l.c Table 5.8: Forecasted Domestic Demand of Food in Vietnam up to 2030 53 om Table 5.9: Balancing Paddy Supply and Paddy Demand in Vietnam until 2030 54 an Lu Table 5.10: Food Security Scenarios up to 2030 by CAP-IPSARD .55 n va Table 5.11: Climate Change Scenarios and Food Security Scenarios up to 2030 56 ey t re th iv t to ng hi LIST OF FIGURES ep w Figure 2.1: Global Warming and Changes in the Climate System n lo ad Figure 2.2: Climate Change and Food Security 15 y th Figure 2.3: The Linkage between Climate Change and Food Security 25 ju yi Figure 3.1: Paddy Statistic in Vietnam, 1995-2010 27 pl ua al Figure 3.2: Cultivated Paddy Area by Regions of Vietnam, 1995-2010 29 n Figure 3.3: Distribution of Vietnamese Paddy Production (average 1995-2010) 30 va n Figure 3.4: Average Rice Consumption in Vietnam, 2000-2006 33 ll fu oi m Figure 3.5: The Share Rice Exports of Vietnam in World Total, 1995-2010 34 at nh z z k jm ht vb om l.c gm an Lu n va ey t re th v