PROBLEM STATEMENT
Up to now, climate change is one of the greatest challenges facing human beings It has become the concern as socio-economical and environmental problems in the world Indeed, climate change became global issue in recent years, negatively impacted to all countries, especially in agriculture regions; threat crop failures, life damage losses and other critical ecosystem vulnerabilities In particular, agriculture sectors have direct exposure and dependence on weather and other natural conditions
Hence, climate change could pose serious issues On the other hand, the challenges of global food security through increasing population, accompanied by increased demand for food As predicted, the world population can be growth from 6.9 billion in 2010 to 8.3 billion in 2030 and to 9.1 billion people in 2050, but the majority occurs in developing countries Thus, food demand has to increase by 70% to meet the population growth, in which the developing countries have doubled At present, enormous burden of feeding a global population is growing rapidly become more severe due to the impact of climate change on food production (UNDESA, 2009)
According to United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC,
2007), Vietnam is the graded fifth in vulnerability under the impacts of climate change In which, Mekong Delta is one of the three most vulnerable Deltas in the world as rising sea level, besides the Nile Delta in Egypt and the Ganges Delta in Bangladesh In East and South Asia, climate change will alter precipitation patterns, increasing frequency of droughts and average temperatures, threatening fresh water for agricultural production In Sub-Saharan Africa, rainfall will be reduced by half in
2020 It is a threat for agriculture sector, and so it effect to food security all over the world Consequently, ensuring food security is increasingly urgent The
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPPC, 2007) has also estimated that Vietnam will be seriously affected by changing of climate in the future
In fact, Vietnam is among of the countries hardest hit by climate change through rising sea levels, changing in rainfall and temperatures According to Vietnamese Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (Climate change, Sea level rise scenarios for Vietnam, MONRE, 2009), the change in climate would significantly affect over all regions of Vietnam "By the end of the 21st century, average temperature in Vietnam is expected to increase about 2.3°C; total annual rainfall and rainy season's rainfall would increase while dry season's rainfall would decrease; sea level is expected to rise about 75cm compared to the average for 1980-1999" (MONRE, 2009) If sea levels rise by 1 meter, approximately 40% of the Mekong Delta, 11% of the Red River Delta area and 3% of the other provinces in coastal areas will be flooded; 10-12% Vietnam's population directly affected, and losses of about 10% of GDP (Tran Hong Ha, MONRE, 2011 ) Meanwhile, the population of Vietnam was estimated more than 100 million people in 2020 It means that Vietnam has to raise the current food production to ensure food security
Furthermore, Vietnam's climate, topography and long coastline makes Vietnam particularly vulnerable to climate variability and natural disaster The Vietnamese coastline is about 3,260 km with the sea consists 1,000,000 km 2 • The natural area has 329,241 km 2 , of which 29% of land used for agricultural production (GSO, 2010) In recent, Vietnam is the second largest rice exporter in the world However, the country still has about 1 million people, mainly ethnic minorities without enough food for their living Thus, food security is not only more serious for Vietnam but also for the rest of the world by impacting of climate change
In brief, climate change has narrowed the area of agricultural land which were submerged a large portion of agricultural land in the low coastal plains, the Red Delta and the Mekong Delta by rising sea levels Besides, increasing temperatures, changing weather and natural disasters lead to grow diseases and epidemics Not only the productivity and output have been threatened, but also the national food security as well It is the reason why the Vietnamese government and many Institutions had a lot of programs and researches to adapt the climate change and food security Based on the available climate change scenarios which were conducted by researchers and institutions as well as the previous findings, this paper studies the impacts of climate change on food security in Vietnam with the simulation approach.
RESEARCH OBJECTIVIVES
The goal of this study is to examine how likely is the climate change may pose impacts on food security based on MORNE's climate change scenarios and food security projects This research has four specific objectives as follows:
(1) To understand the relationship between climate change and food security;
(2) To indicate the impact of climate change on rice yield in Mekong Delta in period 2001-2010;
(3) To explore and estimate the impacts of climate change on food security in Vietnam up to 2030, focusing on food supply side;
(4) To draw policy recommendations for food security in Vietnam.
RESEARCH QUESTIONS
To obtain the above objectives, this paper will attempt to answer the following questions:
( 1) How is the relationship between climate change and food security?
(2) How is the impact of climate change (such as rainfall changes, temperature increases, etc.) on rice production in Mekong Delta region?
(3) How is the impact of climate change on food security in Vietnam up to 2030?
Among of predicted scenarios, which scenarios are suitable for Vietnam in reality?
(4) What are policy implications to food security in the future?
RESEARCH CONTRIBUTIONS
This paper will forecast the impact of climate change on food security in Vietnam up to 2030 In particular, it attempts to forecast the impact of climate change on food security with simulations on different scenarios In addition, this study also looks at the food demand and supply based on government goals which is evident in the legal documents The findings may provide policy makers useful information in assessing the feasibility of food security objectives under climate change, and in selecting the appropriate policies to adapt the climate change and ensure the food security up to
ORGANIZATION OF THE STUDY
This paper consists of six parts, covering the major theme as impact of climate change on food security Chapter 1 provides the overview of the study Chapter 2 presents the literature review Chapter 3 indicates the current situation of food demand and supply, and climate change in Vietnam Chapter 4 shows the methodology and data Chapter 5 analyzes data and discusses the results Finally, Chapter 6 concludes the paper and provides some recommendations as well as the limitations of this research
In detail, Chapter 1 raises the problem statement which is caused the theme for this thesis Based on the issue, impact of climate change on food security is studied The objectives and contributions of this study also present in the first part Second, Chapter
2 presents basic concepts and defmitions such as greenhouse gases, emissions, climate change, climate change scenario, and food security Theoretical literature and empirical studies which related climate change and agriculture production aspect are also presented The finding of conceptual framework indicating the linkage between climate change and food security is reviewed as well Third, Chapter 3 shows and analyzes the current situation of food demand and supply, and climate change The chapter begins with the analysis of paddy production as rice being the major food for Vietnamese meal This section investigates Vietnam's paddy statistics in the period from 1995 to 2010, including cultivated paddy area and paddy yields by regions of Vietnam In the demand side, this study evaluates domestic rice consumption and rice exports volume of Vietnam Regarding to the current situation of climate change, the chapter mainly summarizes the analysis of climate parameters and sea level based on observed data of MORNE Climate is considered in this part as temperature, rainfall, sea level rise, typhoon, cold front and drizzles Next, Chapter 4 presents the methodology and data where econometric model is used to estimate from the secondary data which is adopted pool data of Mekong Delta in period 2001-2010 The Cobb-Douglas functional form is applied for the average yield function Methods for analysis and simulations under different scenarios are also presented And then, Chapter 5 analyses and explains the results The aim of this chapter is to show the impact of climate change on food security up to 2030 with various climate scenarios
Finally, Chapter 6 concludes the paper It discusses the main findings as well as offers some recommendations The limitations of this research are also raised in the last section
The chapter firstly defmes the relevant concepts including climate change and food security Next, it shows theoretical literature on the linkage between the climate change and food security Cobb-Douglas Function and Simulation approach are laid out Then, it reviews some empirical studies And finally, the conceptual framework for this study is also presented in this chapter
2.1.1 Greenhouse gases (GHGs) Greenhouse gases are gases that absorb long-wave radiation (infrared) These are reflected from the earth's surface when illuminated by sunlight, then, dissipate heat back to the earth and causing the greenhouse effect Ordinarily, the prime greenhouse gases in the Earth's atmosphere are water vapor (H20), carbon dioxide (C02), nitrous oxide (N 2 0), methane (CRt) and ozone (03) (IPCC Glossary, 1995)
2.1.2 Emissions Emissions are the release of GHGs and (or) their precursors and aerosols into the atmosphere which over a specified area and a period oftime (IPCC Glossary, 1995)
2.1.3 Climate Change Climate change is the change of climate states compared to average and climatic fluctuations to maintain a longer period, typically some decades or longer It may be due to natural internal processes or external effects Moreover, human activities were altered the composition of the atmosphere or in land utilization (IPCC Glossary, 1995) Climate change occurs due to the natural variability in climate system According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPPC, 2007) and Food and
Agriculture Organization of the United Nation (F AO, 2008), greenhouse gases to the atmosphere was one of the major causes This was proposed by Joseph Fourier in
1824 After that, in 1896, Svante Arrhenius investigated quantitatively These factors determine the greenhouse gas emission such as economic growth, population, consumption, energy sources, technology transfer and land use, etc (IPCC, 2007)
Among of them, water vapor which causes about 36-70% of the greenhouse effect, carbon dioxide (C0 2) about 9-26%, methane (Cf-4) about 4-9%, ozone (0 3) about 3-7%, chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and nitrous oxide (N 2 0) were the rest cause Wigley and Jones (1981) concluded that the effects of C0 2 on climate is available and by this time, atmospheric C02 concentrations may become high and will be higher in the future which was an important cause of climate change
Figure 2.1: Global Warming and Changes in the Climate System
• Increasing accumulation of greenhouse gases traps more heat in the atmosphere
• Higher global mean and maximum surface air temperatures
• Higher global mean and maximum sea surface temperatures
• Changes in patterns of water flow in glacier-fed streams
• Changes in recharge rates for underground aquifers r -
Changes in average weather conditions
• Higher rates of evaporation and evapotranspiration
• Changes in degree of humidity and atmospheric pressure
• Changes in frequency, duration intensity and geographic distribution of rainfall and snowfall r - • Increased frequency, duration and intensity of droughts
• Changes in frequency, duration and intensity of extreme weather events
• Species shifts uphill and towards polar regions, resulting in changed species composition of nature habitats
• Changes in suitability of land for arable crops, tree crops, pasture crops, grazing and human habitation
• Changes in star/end of growing season
• Displacement of agro- ecological zones
• Changes in pattern of sedimentation after
Climate change scenario is the scientific assumption and reliability in future evolution, of which the relationship between socio-economic development, GDP, greenhouse gas emissions, climate change and sea level rises (IPCC, 2007) The scenarios reported by IPCC (2007) are as follows:
• Al Family: Scenario characteristics are rapid economic growth, global population reaches the peak in 2050 and declines thereafter, rapid introduction of new technologies and more efficient of these, convergence of world-income, way of life and among regions, strong cultural exchanges and social interactions (IPCC, 2007)
Based on technological development, Al scenario divides into three groups All these are A 1 F 1 (High emission scenario) with an intensity on fossil intensive, AlB (Medium emission scenario) with an intensity on a balance across all energy sources and A 1 T (Low emission scenario) with an intensity on non- fossil energy sources (IPCC, 2007)
• A2 Family: Scenario characteristics are heterogeneous world, self-reliance and preservation of nations, continuously increasing population in the 21st century, regionally-oriented economic development, technological change, slow per capita economic growth (High emission scenario, similar to A 1 F 1 ) (IPCC,
• Bl Family: Scenario characteristics are rapid economic growth as in Al, but with changes toward a service and information economy, global population reaches the peak in 2050 and declines thereafter, reduces in material intensity and introduces clean and resources efficient technologies, emphasizes on global solutions to economic, social and environmental sustainability (Low emission scenario, similar to A 1 T) (IPCC, 2007)
• B2 Family: Scenario characteristics are continuously increasing population, but at a rate lower than A2, emphasizes on local rather than global solutions to economic, social and environmental sustainability, economic development with intermediate levels, less rapid and more diverse technological change than in
B 1 and Al families (Medium emission scenario, similar to AlB) (IPCC, 2007)
Sea level rise is the surge of ocean water in worldwide, which does not include tides, storm surges Sea level rise at a certain location may be higher or lower than the global average because of differences in ocean temperature and other factors (IPCC Glossary, 1995)
Food security is a situation that exists when all people, at all times have secure access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food for normal growth and development, for an active and healthy life (IPCC Glossary, 1995)
"Availability at all times of adequate world food supplies of basic foodstuffs to sustain a steady expansion of food consumption and to offset fluctuations in production and prices"
"Ensuring that all people at all times have both physical and economic access to the basic food that they need" (F AO, 1983)
"Access of all people at all times to enough food for an active, healthy life" (World Bank,
BASIC CONCEPT AND DEFINITION
2.1.1 Greenhouse gases (GHGs) Greenhouse gases are gases that absorb long-wave radiation (infrared) These are reflected from the earth's surface when illuminated by sunlight, then, dissipate heat back to the earth and causing the greenhouse effect Ordinarily, the prime greenhouse gases in the Earth's atmosphere are water vapor (H20), carbon dioxide (C02), nitrous oxide (N 2 0), methane (CRt) and ozone (03) (IPCC Glossary, 1995)
2.1.2 Emissions Emissions are the release of GHGs and (or) their precursors and aerosols into the atmosphere which over a specified area and a period oftime (IPCC Glossary, 1995)
2.1.3 Climate Change Climate change is the change of climate states compared to average and climatic fluctuations to maintain a longer period, typically some decades or longer It may be due to natural internal processes or external effects Moreover, human activities were altered the composition of the atmosphere or in land utilization (IPCC Glossary, 1995) Climate change occurs due to the natural variability in climate system According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPPC, 2007) and Food and
Agriculture Organization of the United Nation (F AO, 2008), greenhouse gases to the atmosphere was one of the major causes This was proposed by Joseph Fourier in
1824 After that, in 1896, Svante Arrhenius investigated quantitatively These factors determine the greenhouse gas emission such as economic growth, population, consumption, energy sources, technology transfer and land use, etc (IPCC, 2007)
Among of them, water vapor which causes about 36-70% of the greenhouse effect, carbon dioxide (C0 2) about 9-26%, methane (Cf-4) about 4-9%, ozone (0 3) about 3-7%, chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and nitrous oxide (N 2 0) were the rest cause Wigley and Jones (1981) concluded that the effects of C0 2 on climate is available and by this time, atmospheric C02 concentrations may become high and will be higher in the future which was an important cause of climate change
Figure 2.1: Global Warming and Changes in the Climate System
• Increasing accumulation of greenhouse gases traps more heat in the atmosphere
• Higher global mean and maximum surface air temperatures
• Higher global mean and maximum sea surface temperatures
• Changes in patterns of water flow in glacier-fed streams
• Changes in recharge rates for underground aquifers r -
Changes in average weather conditions
• Higher rates of evaporation and evapotranspiration
• Changes in degree of humidity and atmospheric pressure
• Changes in frequency, duration intensity and geographic distribution of rainfall and snowfall r - • Increased frequency, duration and intensity of droughts
• Changes in frequency, duration and intensity of extreme weather events
• Species shifts uphill and towards polar regions, resulting in changed species composition of nature habitats
• Changes in suitability of land for arable crops, tree crops, pasture crops, grazing and human habitation
• Changes in star/end of growing season
• Displacement of agro- ecological zones
• Changes in pattern of sedimentation after
Climate change scenario is the scientific assumption and reliability in future evolution, of which the relationship between socio-economic development, GDP, greenhouse gas emissions, climate change and sea level rises (IPCC, 2007) The scenarios reported by IPCC (2007) are as follows:
• Al Family: Scenario characteristics are rapid economic growth, global population reaches the peak in 2050 and declines thereafter, rapid introduction of new technologies and more efficient of these, convergence of world-income, way of life and among regions, strong cultural exchanges and social interactions (IPCC, 2007)
Based on technological development, Al scenario divides into three groups All these are A 1 F 1 (High emission scenario) with an intensity on fossil intensive, AlB (Medium emission scenario) with an intensity on a balance across all energy sources and A 1 T (Low emission scenario) with an intensity on non- fossil energy sources (IPCC, 2007)
• A2 Family: Scenario characteristics are heterogeneous world, self-reliance and preservation of nations, continuously increasing population in the 21st century, regionally-oriented economic development, technological change, slow per capita economic growth (High emission scenario, similar to A 1 F 1 ) (IPCC,
• Bl Family: Scenario characteristics are rapid economic growth as in Al, but with changes toward a service and information economy, global population reaches the peak in 2050 and declines thereafter, reduces in material intensity and introduces clean and resources efficient technologies, emphasizes on global solutions to economic, social and environmental sustainability (Low emission scenario, similar to A 1 T) (IPCC, 2007)
• B2 Family: Scenario characteristics are continuously increasing population, but at a rate lower than A2, emphasizes on local rather than global solutions to economic, social and environmental sustainability, economic development with intermediate levels, less rapid and more diverse technological change than in
B 1 and Al families (Medium emission scenario, similar to AlB) (IPCC, 2007)
Sea level rise is the surge of ocean water in worldwide, which does not include tides, storm surges Sea level rise at a certain location may be higher or lower than the global average because of differences in ocean temperature and other factors (IPCC Glossary, 1995)
Food security is a situation that exists when all people, at all times have secure access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food for normal growth and development, for an active and healthy life (IPCC Glossary, 1995)
"Availability at all times of adequate world food supplies of basic foodstuffs to sustain a steady expansion of food consumption and to offset fluctuations in production and prices"
"Ensuring that all people at all times have both physical and economic access to the basic food that they need" (F AO, 1983)
"Access of all people at all times to enough food for an active, healthy life" (World Bank,
"Food security, at the individual, household, national, regional and global levels [is achieved] when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life"
"Food security is a situation that exists when all people, at all times, have physical, social and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food that meets their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life" (State ofFood Insecurity, 2001)
Scenario is a possible description of how the future may develop which based on a coherent and consistent set of assumptions about driving forces and key relationships
Simulation is a form of predictions gtven a set of prediction schemes based on different assumptions about future scenarios (IPCC Glossary, 1995)
2.2.1.1 The Linkage between Climate Change and Food Security
The linkages between climate change and food security have been examined and documented in literature For the most part, this relation is the impact of climate change on productivity Therefore, food supply is influenced as a link The causes of climate change are also considered to explain clearly The increase in average temperature of Earth due to emissions of carbon dioxide and other gases into the atmosphere had caused the change of global climate Over the past 100 years, Earth's average surface temperature increased by about 0.8°C, especially in last three decades
During the 20th Century, the average temperature of Earth rose 0.6°C and predicted that it will rise between 1.8° and 4.0° Celsius in during 21st Century (IPCC, 2007)
Most of the scientists found that the increase in concentrations of greenhouse gases is the cause, which were produced by human activities (IPCC AR4 SYR, 2007)
In the case of Vietnam, agriculture accounts for a large proportion of greenhouse gas emissions Actually, rice cultivation and livestock account for about 43% (MORNE,
2011 ) Thus, the climate change and agriculture production have an interaction together In the long run, the climate change could impact on agriculture in many ways It could affect the yield, in term of quality and quantity of crops Besides, agriculture practice will be influenced due to fertilizers, herbicides, insecticides and irrigation In another way, the environment will be effected through frequency and intensity of soil drainage, soil erosion, crop diversity declined as well Furthermore, the loss and gain of cultivated lands also lead to rural landscape change
As a result, greenhouse gases do make global warming and lead to change the climate
CHAPTER REMARKS
This chapter mainly focuses on the literature which related climate change and food security Firstly, greenhouse gases to the atmosphere were one of the major causes led to climate change Climate change will cause the vulnerable in ecological system, threat crop failures and life damage losses In term of agriculture, many researches found that climate change negatively impacts on agriculture production Secondly, food security is a situation that exists when all people, at all times have physical, social and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food for normal growth and development, for an active and healthy life In order to evaluate the impacts of climate change on the yield, many authors have been applied the Cobb-Douglass function to estimate with different variables Ricardian model, Stochastic production model, and Simulation model, etc have also employed On the whole, most of them have concluded that climate change impacts on food production in reality
CURRENT SITUATION OF FOOD DEMAND, FOOD SUPPLY AND
This chapter chiefly shows and analyzes the current situation of food demand and supply, and climate change Firstly, it investigates Vietnam's paddy statistics in the period from 1995 to 2010, including cultivated paddy area and paddy yields by regions of Vietnam Then, it presents domestic rice consumption and rice exports volume of Vietnam Finally, it summarizes the analysis of climate parameters and sea level based on observed data of MORNE
3.1 CURRENT SITUATION OF FOOD DEMAND, AND FOOD SUPPLY
According to F AO (2008), the mainly items of food were com, rice, cassava, sweet potato, maize, meat, vegetable, egg, milk, etc However, this paper only studies paddy item The research concentrates on rice item as two reasons Firstly, Vietnam's lifestyles and diets, rice is one of the main grain for food in Vietnam Secondly, Vietnam is one of the largest rice exporters in the world Hence, food security in this research only focuses on the consideration of the balance of rice demand and rice supply
3.1.1 Paddy Production Figure 3.1 Paddy Statistic in Vietnam, 1995-2010
,._Cultivated area (million ha) -Output (million tons)
Source: Author's drawing based on data from GSO, 2011
Figure 3.1 showed that in period 1995-2010, cultivated area increased slowly from nearly 6.8 million hectares in 1995 to 7.5 million hectares in 2010, and annual growth rate was about 0.67% on average (see figures in Appendix 1 ) In which, the annual growth was higher in the first period, in 1995-2000, after that, it was narrowed down about 0.19% in 2001-2010 on average The average rice yield increased over time with average growth was about 2.33% on average However, it was slowly growth rate in recent year As a result, over 15 years, the rice production increased from 25 million tones in 1995 and approximately 40 million tones in 2010 and the annual growth rate was 3.04% The annual growth was also greater in the first period with 4.54%, in 1995-2000 and it was slowly in 2001-2010, about 2.13% on average (see figures in Appendix 1 )
Figure 3.2 Cultivated Paddy Area by Regions of Vietnam, 1995-2010
111 North Central & Central Coast (1,000 ha)
Source: Author's drawing based on datafrom GSO, 2011
The cultivated paddy land has reduced in the 2000s (see Figure 3.2) Although the cultivated area was increased in Midland and Northern Mountain, Central Highlands and Mekong Delta, but it was decreased in Red Delta, North Central & Central Coast and South Central Coast Consequently, the land lost about 153 thousands ha Some reasons lead to reduce the cultivated paddy land such as urbanization, climate change, etc The first reason was due to government policies The Vietnamese government constructed many industrial parks in our country to Vietnam's economic structure towards industrialization In 1997, the government issued a decree on regulation of industrial zones, processing zones production After that, the Vietnamese National Assembly promulgated some laws such as the Law on Enterprises (2000), Land Law
(2003) and Investment Law (2005) The wave of urbanization has spread and direct impact on agriculture production On the other hand, in recent year, many golf courses have been built everywhere in Vietnam Thus, many fields have destroyed to carry out this objective The second reason was due to climate change Every year, Vietnam has
• to face with natural disaster e.g typhoon, flood, drought, landslide and hurricane
Climate change also causes to narrow down the cultivated paddy land
Figure 3.3 Distribution of Vietnamese Paddy production (average 1995-2010)
Source: Author's drawing based on datafrom GSO, 2011
Figure 3.3 shown that in period 1995-2010, Mekong Delta accounted 51% in cultivated paddy of Vietnam On the contrast, Central Highlands is smallest cultivated region in those Red Delta and North Central & Central Coast accounted as same as 16% In general, Mekong River Delta is still the largest cultivated rice region in Vietnam It accounted more than a half of rice cultivation area over the year
However, Red River Delta is still the highest paddy yield region in Vietnam which achieved nearly by 60quintal/ha in 2010 (Table 3.3 below) For this reason, the research will exploit Mekong River Delta as an example in order to estimate for Vietnam on the whole
Table 3.1 Paddy Yield by Regions of Vietnam, 1995-2010
South Red Northern Central & Central
Paddy Yields by Regions of Vietnam for period from 1995 to 2010 are shown in Table 3.1 Generally, the paddy productivity increased over the last time
Nevertheless, it tends to diminishing growth rates The rice yield in each region of Vietnam is also different Red Delta is the highest yield region with 59.2 quintal per ha in 2010 and South Central Coast is the lowest yield region with 44.9 quintal per ha Mekong Delta is the second high yield region with 54.3 quintal per ha and Midland & Northern Mountain is the second low yield region with 46.4 quintal per
• ha If consider the change of productivity in a long term (1995-20 1 0), the rice yield in Central Highlands is increased appreciably with 23 quintal per ha in growing yield
But Mekong Delta is the largest cultivated paddy area in Vietnam (see Figure 3.3 above), so improve the rice productivity will be significantly for our country
3.1.2 Domestic Rice Consumption and Export Table 3.2 Domestic Rice Consumption in Vietnam, 1995-2010
Rice production Million tons 25.0 32.5 35.8 40.0 Domestic rice consumed Million tons 11.2 13.6 13.4 14.4
Per capita rice consumed Kg 155 175 163 166
In general, domestic rice consumption of Vietnam increased over year The consumption of rice had grown from 11.2 to 14.4 million tons for period 1995-2010 (see Table 3.2) Despite of Vietnam's per-capita rice consumption tend to reduce in recent year, declining from 1 75kg/person in 2000 down to 166kg/person in 2010
Vietnam's consumers like others who access other foods for meal as their incomes put up Vietnam's per capita income increases leading to diversification of the diet
However, rice consumption is still increase In fact, Vietnam's rice consumption depends on populations and components of daily diet According to the Census of Population and Housing 2009, Vietnam's population is 85.8 million persons Vietnam is the third most populous country in Southeast Asia and thirteenth among the most populous country in the world In period 1999-2009, the average annual of Vietnam's population growth rate was 1.2%/year which was the lowest rate during 50 last years
Nevertheless, Vietnam's population continues to increase the momentum of
• population growth m commg decades It 1s a pressure for food security in this country
Figure 3.4 Average Rice Consumption in Vietnam, 2000-2006
In 2000-2006, rice consumption for food and reserve accounted for a large percentage in the total consumption with 59% (see Figure 3.4) Rice is the main food in every meal of Vietnamese household, so they consume more Moreover, reserve to ensure food security is attended In the other hand, Vietnam is the second largest rice exporter in the world which accounted 21% in average rice consumption in this period
The rest of consumption was used for seed, animal and loss
Table 3.3 Rice Export Volume of Vietnam, 1995-2010 Year 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Figure in table 3.3 showed that in general, rice export volume of Vietnam increased over the year However, it is also declined in some year such as in 2000, 2002, 2006 and 2007 The volume of rice export achieved nearly by 6,900 million tons in 2010
With this result, Vietnam continues to hold second rice exporter in the world, after Thailand It indicated rice is one of the major export commodities of Vietnam
Figure 3.5 The Share Rice Exports of Vietnam in World Total, 1995-2010
• Rice export of Vietnam Total rice export of the world mil.tons
Source: Author's calculation & drawing based on datafrom FAO, 2011
The share of Vietnamese rice export fluctuated over periods (see Figure 3.5) To begin with 8.8% in 1995, after that it double increased in 1996 However, the proportion decreased in 2000-2002 but continuously increased over the years in
• period 2002-2005 Then, it was declined in 2005-2007 and continuously enlarged in recent year In 2010, the share of Vietnam was more than 20% in world total
Although the share was altered in period 1995-2010 but it was greater on the whole
Over 15 years, the proportion nearly has grown up three times These percentages confirmed the position of Vietnam's rice exports in the world as well as the contribution of Vietnam in world's food security
3.2 CURRENT SITUATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE
CURRENT SITUATION OF FOOD DEMAND, AND FOOD SUPPLY
According to F AO (2008), the mainly items of food were com, rice, cassava, sweet potato, maize, meat, vegetable, egg, milk, etc However, this paper only studies paddy item The research concentrates on rice item as two reasons Firstly, Vietnam's lifestyles and diets, rice is one of the main grain for food in Vietnam Secondly, Vietnam is one of the largest rice exporters in the world Hence, food security in this research only focuses on the consideration of the balance of rice demand and rice supply
3.1.1 Paddy Production Figure 3.1 Paddy Statistic in Vietnam, 1995-2010
,._Cultivated area (million ha) -Output (million tons)
Source: Author's drawing based on data from GSO, 2011
Figure 3.1 showed that in period 1995-2010, cultivated area increased slowly from nearly 6.8 million hectares in 1995 to 7.5 million hectares in 2010, and annual growth rate was about 0.67% on average (see figures in Appendix 1 ) In which, the annual growth was higher in the first period, in 1995-2000, after that, it was narrowed down about 0.19% in 2001-2010 on average The average rice yield increased over time with average growth was about 2.33% on average However, it was slowly growth rate in recent year As a result, over 15 years, the rice production increased from 25 million tones in 1995 and approximately 40 million tones in 2010 and the annual growth rate was 3.04% The annual growth was also greater in the first period with 4.54%, in 1995-2000 and it was slowly in 2001-2010, about 2.13% on average (see figures in Appendix 1 )
Figure 3.2 Cultivated Paddy Area by Regions of Vietnam, 1995-2010
111 North Central & Central Coast (1,000 ha)
Source: Author's drawing based on datafrom GSO, 2011
The cultivated paddy land has reduced in the 2000s (see Figure 3.2) Although the cultivated area was increased in Midland and Northern Mountain, Central Highlands and Mekong Delta, but it was decreased in Red Delta, North Central & Central Coast and South Central Coast Consequently, the land lost about 153 thousands ha Some reasons lead to reduce the cultivated paddy land such as urbanization, climate change, etc The first reason was due to government policies The Vietnamese government constructed many industrial parks in our country to Vietnam's economic structure towards industrialization In 1997, the government issued a decree on regulation of industrial zones, processing zones production After that, the Vietnamese National Assembly promulgated some laws such as the Law on Enterprises (2000), Land Law
(2003) and Investment Law (2005) The wave of urbanization has spread and direct impact on agriculture production On the other hand, in recent year, many golf courses have been built everywhere in Vietnam Thus, many fields have destroyed to carry out this objective The second reason was due to climate change Every year, Vietnam has
• to face with natural disaster e.g typhoon, flood, drought, landslide and hurricane
Climate change also causes to narrow down the cultivated paddy land
Figure 3.3 Distribution of Vietnamese Paddy production (average 1995-2010)
Source: Author's drawing based on datafrom GSO, 2011
Figure 3.3 shown that in period 1995-2010, Mekong Delta accounted 51% in cultivated paddy of Vietnam On the contrast, Central Highlands is smallest cultivated region in those Red Delta and North Central & Central Coast accounted as same as 16% In general, Mekong River Delta is still the largest cultivated rice region in Vietnam It accounted more than a half of rice cultivation area over the year
However, Red River Delta is still the highest paddy yield region in Vietnam which achieved nearly by 60quintal/ha in 2010 (Table 3.3 below) For this reason, the research will exploit Mekong River Delta as an example in order to estimate for Vietnam on the whole
Table 3.1 Paddy Yield by Regions of Vietnam, 1995-2010
South Red Northern Central & Central
Paddy Yields by Regions of Vietnam for period from 1995 to 2010 are shown in Table 3.1 Generally, the paddy productivity increased over the last time
Nevertheless, it tends to diminishing growth rates The rice yield in each region of Vietnam is also different Red Delta is the highest yield region with 59.2 quintal per ha in 2010 and South Central Coast is the lowest yield region with 44.9 quintal per ha Mekong Delta is the second high yield region with 54.3 quintal per ha and Midland & Northern Mountain is the second low yield region with 46.4 quintal per
• ha If consider the change of productivity in a long term (1995-20 1 0), the rice yield in Central Highlands is increased appreciably with 23 quintal per ha in growing yield
But Mekong Delta is the largest cultivated paddy area in Vietnam (see Figure 3.3 above), so improve the rice productivity will be significantly for our country
3.1.2 Domestic Rice Consumption and Export Table 3.2 Domestic Rice Consumption in Vietnam, 1995-2010
Rice production Million tons 25.0 32.5 35.8 40.0 Domestic rice consumed Million tons 11.2 13.6 13.4 14.4
Per capita rice consumed Kg 155 175 163 166
In general, domestic rice consumption of Vietnam increased over year The consumption of rice had grown from 11.2 to 14.4 million tons for period 1995-2010 (see Table 3.2) Despite of Vietnam's per-capita rice consumption tend to reduce in recent year, declining from 1 75kg/person in 2000 down to 166kg/person in 2010
Vietnam's consumers like others who access other foods for meal as their incomes put up Vietnam's per capita income increases leading to diversification of the diet
However, rice consumption is still increase In fact, Vietnam's rice consumption depends on populations and components of daily diet According to the Census of Population and Housing 2009, Vietnam's population is 85.8 million persons Vietnam is the third most populous country in Southeast Asia and thirteenth among the most populous country in the world In period 1999-2009, the average annual of Vietnam's population growth rate was 1.2%/year which was the lowest rate during 50 last years
Nevertheless, Vietnam's population continues to increase the momentum of
• population growth m commg decades It 1s a pressure for food security in this country
Figure 3.4 Average Rice Consumption in Vietnam, 2000-2006
In 2000-2006, rice consumption for food and reserve accounted for a large percentage in the total consumption with 59% (see Figure 3.4) Rice is the main food in every meal of Vietnamese household, so they consume more Moreover, reserve to ensure food security is attended In the other hand, Vietnam is the second largest rice exporter in the world which accounted 21% in average rice consumption in this period
The rest of consumption was used for seed, animal and loss
Table 3.3 Rice Export Volume of Vietnam, 1995-2010 Year 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Figure in table 3.3 showed that in general, rice export volume of Vietnam increased over the year However, it is also declined in some year such as in 2000, 2002, 2006 and 2007 The volume of rice export achieved nearly by 6,900 million tons in 2010
With this result, Vietnam continues to hold second rice exporter in the world, after Thailand It indicated rice is one of the major export commodities of Vietnam
Figure 3.5 The Share Rice Exports of Vietnam in World Total, 1995-2010
• Rice export of Vietnam Total rice export of the world mil.tons
Source: Author's calculation & drawing based on datafrom FAO, 2011
The share of Vietnamese rice export fluctuated over periods (see Figure 3.5) To begin with 8.8% in 1995, after that it double increased in 1996 However, the proportion decreased in 2000-2002 but continuously increased over the years in
• period 2002-2005 Then, it was declined in 2005-2007 and continuously enlarged in recent year In 2010, the share of Vietnam was more than 20% in world total
Although the share was altered in period 1995-2010 but it was greater on the whole
Over 15 years, the proportion nearly has grown up three times These percentages confirmed the position of Vietnam's rice exports in the world as well as the contribution of Vietnam in world's food security.
CURRENT SITUATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE
Earth is heating up day by day As a result, Vietnam is facing with climate change in the negative direction Climate change causes the amplitude of sea level rise which is quite large Climate change accompanied by the El Nino phenomenon, which reduces to 20-25% of rainfall in the Central region-the Central Highlands It leads to drought and prolonged dry in period El Nino This effect in South Central, West Highlands is greater than in North Central, South Highlands, respectively According to MORNE, the total GHG emissions in Vietnam are around 120.8 million tons per year
Vietnam's GHG emissions include four major types as C02, C~, N02, and NO gas
They are due to activities in the energy, industry and traffic sector In particular, traffic accounted for 85% CO and industry accounted for 95% N02•
MORNE has analyzed changes of climate parameters and sea level based on observed data as follows:
• Temperature: The annual average temperature increased about 0.5°C to
0 7°C during last 50 years (1958-2007) Temperatures in Northern climate zones increased faster than those of Southern climate zones Winter temperatures increased faster than summer temperatures The annual average temperature for the last four decades (1961-2000) was higher than that of three previous decades (1931-1960) In period 1991-2000, annual temperatures in Ho Chi Minh City were higher than the average in 1931-1940 by 0.6°C Similarly, annual temperatures in Da Nang and Ha Noi were higher than the average in this period by 0.4°C and 0.8°C, respectively The
• annual average temperatures at these three regions in 2007 were higher than the average in 1931-1940 by 0.8-1.3°C Likewise, in 2007, the annual average temperatures were higher than the average in 1991-2000 by 0.4-0.5°C at these three locations (MORNE, 2008)
• Rainfall: For the last 9 decades (1911-2000), the change of annual average rainfall was not distinct at every region and not consistent with each other There were ascending periods and descending periods The annual rainfall increased over Southern climate zones and decreased over Northern ones Over the past 50 years (1958-2007), it decreased about 2% on the whole country Besides, changes in precipitation with increased rainfall in the rainy season but decreased in the dry season (MORNE, 2008)
• Sea level: Sea level rise on the uneven regional Based on data from tidal gauges along Vietnam coasts, the rate of sea level rise was about 1.7-2.4mm/year during twentieth century This rate was about 3mm/year for the period 1993-2008
Hence, risk of sea level rise will be faster in the future According to this record, sea level rise at Hon Dau rose about 20cm in the past 50 years In Vung Tau, within the period from 1979 to 2006, the average sea level rise was about 9 Scm while the highest sea level rose nearly 13cm (MORNE, 2008)
• Typhoons: In recent years, Vietnam has more frequent and powerful typhoons It has impacted to Vietnam as damaged the properties and human life in many locations The losses caused by typhoons seem to be increasing over time
Furthermore, typhoon track has a tendency of moving southward and typhoon season tends to end later More typhoons with abnormal movement appeared in recent times (MORNE, 2003) The coastal Provinces of the North and Central Regions are the most affected regions by typhoons In the South, typhoons were less frequent but it damaged extremely in the last years There were about 62% of the population and 44% of the whole which are frequently affected by typhoons In addition, typhoons
are normally accompanied by storm surges During the past 30 years ( 1979-1999), half the typhoons have caused a storm surge of over 1m, 30% of typhoons over 1.5m, and 11% of typhoons over 2.5m These typhoons and storm surges have often overtopped - and frequently destroyed - sea dykes, flooding lowland coastal areas (VietNam Country Report, 1999)
• Cold front: The number of cold fronts affecting Vietnam was declined remarkably in the last two decades In 1994 and 2007, there were only 15- 16 waves of cold air, which made up 56% of average cold atmosphere However, anomalous events were more frequent in recent years (MORNE, 2008)
• Drizzles: In Hanoi, the average number of drizzle days reduced since the last decade of 1981-1990 And it continuously decreased for last 10 years In recent years, the average number of drizzle days fell sharply, with only by a half compared to previous There was only around 15 drizzle days per year (MORNE, 2003).
CHAPTER REMARKS
This chapter presented the current situation of food demand and supply, and climate change In supply side, this section analyzed the paddy production as rice being the major food for Vietnamese meal The chapter investigated Vietnam's paddy statistics in the period from 1995 to 2010, including cultivated paddy area and paddy yields by regions of Vietnam In general, the cultivated paddy area has decreased but the rice yield has increased over time In which, Mekong Delta was still the largest region of cultivated area in Vietnam, with accounted for more than a half of rice cultivation area over the year In the demand side, this part evaluated domestic rice consumption and rice exports volume of Vietnam Domestic rice consumption increased over year due to increase in the population However, the rice consumed per capita declined in recent year due to assess the others food of consumers Regarding to the current situation of climate change, the chapter mainly summarized the analysis of climate parameters and sea level based on observed data of MORNE The temperature, rainfall, sea level rise have increase comparmg with the past Besides, Vietnam has more frequent and powerful typhoons The number of cold fronts affecting Vietnam was declined but anomalous events were more frequent in recent years, and drizzle days reduced since the last decade of 1981-1990
This chapter mainly presents the methodological framework that will be used for the subsequent empirical analysis At the beginning, it introduces the methodology employed to examine the impacts of climate change on rice yield in Mekong Delta by historical data Next, the chapter lays out the methodology to estimate the impacts of climate change on food security up to 2030 with simulation approach Finally, the sources of data are presented in order to estimate and analyze
The methodology of this study contains two parts separately, which are econometric model for Mekong Delta region in period 2001-2010 and simulation approach for Vietnam up to 2030
In the first part, we use econometric model with historical data to indicate the impact of climate variables on rice yield in Mekong Delta region The Cobb-Douglas (CD) functional form is applied for the average yield function In other words, Mekong Delta as an example to illustrate the impact of climate change on rice yields in the past Secondary data with panel data is used to estimate the impacts of temperature and precipitation on rice yield in Mekong Delta It is covered 12 provinces and one city, including Long An, Tien Giang, Vinh Long, Ben Tre, Dong Thap, Tra Vinh, Can Tho, Hau Giang, Bac Lieu, Soc Trang, An Giang, Kien Giang, and Ca Mau from 2001 to 2010 As we mentioned in Chapter 3, food includes many items but we only study focusing on rice item In addition, Vietnam contributes about 20% of rice production for export on the world market, in which, Mekong Delta contributed around 90% of the country's rice exports (FAO, 2011) On the other hand, climate change will seriously affect this region Mekong Delta is low-lying and heavily influenced by rising sea levels According to MORNE's climate change scenarios, when sea level
• rises by 1m, deep soil surface on 1m lasts 1 month across the plain accounts for 68% of the natural ground And saline area with concentration is on 4g/liter of 1 7 million ha As this scenario, there will be 37.8% of inundation area (MORNE, 2009) For these reasons, some findings from the first part have proven that climate change impacted on rice production in reality The aim of this part is order to present how the temperature and rainfall impact on rice yield in Mekong Delta in 2001-2010 by the specific numbers
As mentioned at the beginning, this part applied Cobb-Douglas functional form for the average yield function The function has been introduced in Chapter 2 including equation ( 1) above This paper adapts these forms and ignores the time trend variable
T to simple model The simple equations are suggested to estimate rice yield as follows:
Cobb-Douglass (2) where y is rice yield; Xj and Xk are inputs including weather variables as temperature and precipitation, respectively
To estimate the impact of temperature and precipitation on nee yield by Cobb- Douglass function (2), we take log it, the function is rewritten by
Ln (y) = 13 1 + ~Jn(x) + f\ ln(xJ (3) where denotes Inc = 13 1 and 13 are the coefficients to be estimated
We employ the Cobb-Douglas (CD) functional form as these following reasons First, this functional type is consistent with the postulates in Just and Pope (1979) which is an additive interaction between the average and variability functions Second, the functional form is flexible enough to approximate the average yield equation The trans-log specification may be more appealing but it has the multiplicative interaction which violates Just and Pope's assumptions (Tveteras, 2000)
In the second part, this study uses simulation approach from different scenarios to forecast food security in Vietnam up to 2030 This part will investigate the impacts of climate change on food security which based on the findings of Bingxin Yu et al (IFPRI, 2010), Nguyen, (ICD-MARD, 2009) and the target of Vietnamese Government implying Resolution No.63/NQ-CP on December 23, 2009 about national food security and Decision No.l24/2012/QD-TTg on February 2, 2012 about approving master plan of production of agriculture to 2020, a vision toward 2030 and the scenarios national food security up to 2030 of Center for Agricultural Policy (CAP-IPSARD, 2011) In other words, we use available data from previous researches which have just listed above to estimate national food security under climate change with different climate scenarios Simultaneously, the analysis, comparison and evaluation also studied in among of scenarios Next, this research presents the prospect Vietnamese food security toward 2030 based on the balance of food supply and food demand
According to F AO (2008), climate change will impact all four dimensions of food security which includes availability, accessibility, utilization and systems stability
However, this research focusing on food availability only In supply side, we mainly apply the results of rice yield change under climate change with different scenarios as IPSL-2030, GISS-2030 and MORNE-2030 which were found by Bingxin Yu et al (IFPRI, 2010) Particularly, Bingxin Yu et al (IFPRI, 2010) applied three climate scenarios as IPSL-CM4, GISS-ER and MORNE which based on A2 emission scenario from the IPCC scenario family to study the impact of climate change on rice yield up to 2030 And we adopt their above results to examine In addition, we use rice planted area from Resolution No.63/NQ-CP on December 23, 2009 about national food security to combine between the Government's objectives and the previous findings researches to forecast Based on these data, the rice output is estimated up to 2030 In demand side, the forecasted domestic demand of rice in Vietnam up to 2030 of Nguyen (ICD-MARD, 2009) has been adapted
We suppose the equations of rice supply and rice demand as follows:
(4) With RSot : rice output supply in year t
RSt : rice cultivated area in year t RYt :rice yield per rice cultivated area in year t (ton/hectare) where RSt=RP.xN (5)
RPt : Rice planted area in year t
N : Number of crops in year t
In demand side, rice requirement contains domestic demand and rice for export
According to Nguyen, V.H (ICD-MARD, 2009), domestic demand for rice contains four composite parts These are for seed, for animal & loss, for processing, and for food & reserve which are forecasted We adopt these data to estimate, and so, the equation of rice domestic demand is presented as the following:
(6) With RDt : rice domestic demand in year t
RSe : rice for seed in year t RAt : rice for animal and loss in year t RPot : rice for processing in year t
RFt : rice for food and reserve in year t
In order to ensure the national food security, rice domestic demand and rice supply firstly have to equalize The balance model will be as RSot = RDt Consequently, an imbalance occurs that will be threatened national food security Hence, we will consider, analyze and discuss the results with simulation approach after adopting available data in the last section
For the first step analysis with historical data, we collected rice yields data over the years of MeKong Delta region from database of Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD, 2011) The rice yield data includes time series average rice yields at the province-level over year, from 2001 to 2010 The data on precipitation and temperature are collected from the statistical database by monthly of Vietnam Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Environment (IMHEN, 2011) Of which, these data based on Meteorological Stations of each region, correspondingly In detail, Moe Hoa station for Long An province, My Tho station for Tien Giang province, Vinh Long station for Vinh Long province, Ben Tre station for Ben Tre province, Cao Lanh station for Dong Thap province, Cang Long station for Tra Vinh province, Can Tho station for Can Tho city, Hau Giang station for Hau Giang province, Bac Lieu station for Bac Lieu province, Soc Trang station for Soc Trang province, Chau Doc station for An Giang province, Rach Gia station for Kien Giang province and Ca Mau station for Ca Mau province Precipitation data is time series of total rainfall within a year for each province which calculated by summing the rainfall in 12 months in a year This reflects the direct water usage for rice cultivation and the inter-seasonal water accumulation within the year Temperature data contained monthly average temperature from January to December and these are calculated to yearly average temperature for each province as well
For the next step analysis with simulations from data of previous researches, we obtained Average Annual Temperature increase in degrees by Agro-ecological zones, Average % changes in Annual Precipitation by Agro-ecological zones and Rice yield change of Vietnam under climate change scenarios as IPSL-2030, GISS-2030, MORNE-2030 from the findings research of Bingxin Yu et al (IFPRI, 2010) On the other hand, Rice Planted Area is collected based on Resolution No.63/NQ-CP on December 23, 2009 about national food security and Decision No.124/2012/QD-TTg on February 2, 2012 about approving master plan of production of agriculture to 2020, a vision toward 2030 Rice Domestic Demand in Vietnam up to 2030 is obtained from the research of Nguyen (ICD-MARD, 2009)
This chapter showed the methodology and data where econometric model was used to estimate from the secondary data There were two parts in this chapter, separately In the first part, the sample size was adopted of Mekong Delta region in period 2001-
2010 with pool data The average yield function applied the Cobb-Douglas functional form The data was collected from Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD, 2011) and Vietnam Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Environment (IMHEN, 2011 ) In the second part, the simulation under different scenarios was employed There are three climate change scenarios with GISS, IPSL and MORNE
The data was applied from previous researches and legal documents of Vietnamese Government
Chapter 5 DATA ANALYSIS AND RESULTS
This chapter mainly analyses, explains and discusses the results In the first section, it shows and discusses the results of Mekong Delta region with descriptive statistics and regression outcomes with Cobb-Douglas function In the second section, it indicates the impact of climate change on food security up to 2030 with various climate scenarios as MORNE, IPSL and GISS
5.1 IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON RICE YIELD IN MEKONG DELTA
Table 5.1 Descriptive Statistics of Data
Rice yield (quintallha) Temperature {'C) Precipitation(mm)
Source: Author's calculation based on datafrom IMHEN and MARD
METHODOLOGY
The methodology of this study contains two parts separately, which are econometric model for Mekong Delta region in period 2001-2010 and simulation approach for Vietnam up to 2030
In the first part, we use econometric model with historical data to indicate the impact of climate variables on rice yield in Mekong Delta region The Cobb-Douglas (CD) functional form is applied for the average yield function In other words, Mekong Delta as an example to illustrate the impact of climate change on rice yields in the past Secondary data with panel data is used to estimate the impacts of temperature and precipitation on rice yield in Mekong Delta It is covered 12 provinces and one city, including Long An, Tien Giang, Vinh Long, Ben Tre, Dong Thap, Tra Vinh, Can Tho, Hau Giang, Bac Lieu, Soc Trang, An Giang, Kien Giang, and Ca Mau from 2001 to 2010 As we mentioned in Chapter 3, food includes many items but we only study focusing on rice item In addition, Vietnam contributes about 20% of rice production for export on the world market, in which, Mekong Delta contributed around 90% of the country's rice exports (FAO, 2011) On the other hand, climate change will seriously affect this region Mekong Delta is low-lying and heavily influenced by rising sea levels According to MORNE's climate change scenarios, when sea level
• rises by 1m, deep soil surface on 1m lasts 1 month across the plain accounts for 68% of the natural ground And saline area with concentration is on 4g/liter of 1 7 million ha As this scenario, there will be 37.8% of inundation area (MORNE, 2009) For these reasons, some findings from the first part have proven that climate change impacted on rice production in reality The aim of this part is order to present how the temperature and rainfall impact on rice yield in Mekong Delta in 2001-2010 by the specific numbers
As mentioned at the beginning, this part applied Cobb-Douglas functional form for the average yield function The function has been introduced in Chapter 2 including equation ( 1) above This paper adapts these forms and ignores the time trend variable
T to simple model The simple equations are suggested to estimate rice yield as follows:
Cobb-Douglass (2) where y is rice yield; Xj and Xk are inputs including weather variables as temperature and precipitation, respectively
To estimate the impact of temperature and precipitation on nee yield by Cobb- Douglass function (2), we take log it, the function is rewritten by
Ln (y) = 13 1 + ~Jn(x) + f\ ln(xJ (3) where denotes Inc = 13 1 and 13 are the coefficients to be estimated
We employ the Cobb-Douglas (CD) functional form as these following reasons First, this functional type is consistent with the postulates in Just and Pope (1979) which is an additive interaction between the average and variability functions Second, the functional form is flexible enough to approximate the average yield equation The trans-log specification may be more appealing but it has the multiplicative interaction which violates Just and Pope's assumptions (Tveteras, 2000)
In the second part, this study uses simulation approach from different scenarios to forecast food security in Vietnam up to 2030 This part will investigate the impacts of climate change on food security which based on the findings of Bingxin Yu et al (IFPRI, 2010), Nguyen, (ICD-MARD, 2009) and the target of Vietnamese Government implying Resolution No.63/NQ-CP on December 23, 2009 about national food security and Decision No.l24/2012/QD-TTg on February 2, 2012 about approving master plan of production of agriculture to 2020, a vision toward 2030 and the scenarios national food security up to 2030 of Center for Agricultural Policy (CAP-IPSARD, 2011) In other words, we use available data from previous researches which have just listed above to estimate national food security under climate change with different climate scenarios Simultaneously, the analysis, comparison and evaluation also studied in among of scenarios Next, this research presents the prospect Vietnamese food security toward 2030 based on the balance of food supply and food demand
According to F AO (2008), climate change will impact all four dimensions of food security which includes availability, accessibility, utilization and systems stability
However, this research focusing on food availability only In supply side, we mainly apply the results of rice yield change under climate change with different scenarios as IPSL-2030, GISS-2030 and MORNE-2030 which were found by Bingxin Yu et al (IFPRI, 2010) Particularly, Bingxin Yu et al (IFPRI, 2010) applied three climate scenarios as IPSL-CM4, GISS-ER and MORNE which based on A2 emission scenario from the IPCC scenario family to study the impact of climate change on rice yield up to 2030 And we adopt their above results to examine In addition, we use rice planted area from Resolution No.63/NQ-CP on December 23, 2009 about national food security to combine between the Government's objectives and the previous findings researches to forecast Based on these data, the rice output is estimated up to 2030 In demand side, the forecasted domestic demand of rice in Vietnam up to 2030 of Nguyen (ICD-MARD, 2009) has been adapted
We suppose the equations of rice supply and rice demand as follows:
(4) With RSot : rice output supply in year t
RSt : rice cultivated area in year t RYt :rice yield per rice cultivated area in year t (ton/hectare) where RSt=RP.xN (5)
RPt : Rice planted area in year t
N : Number of crops in year t
In demand side, rice requirement contains domestic demand and rice for export
According to Nguyen, V.H (ICD-MARD, 2009), domestic demand for rice contains four composite parts These are for seed, for animal & loss, for processing, and for food & reserve which are forecasted We adopt these data to estimate, and so, the equation of rice domestic demand is presented as the following:
(6) With RDt : rice domestic demand in year t
RSe : rice for seed in year t RAt : rice for animal and loss in year t RPot : rice for processing in year t
RFt : rice for food and reserve in year t
In order to ensure the national food security, rice domestic demand and rice supply firstly have to equalize The balance model will be as RSot = RDt Consequently, an imbalance occurs that will be threatened national food security Hence, we will consider, analyze and discuss the results with simulation approach after adopting available data in the last section.
SOURCE OF DATA
For the first step analysis with historical data, we collected rice yields data over the years of MeKong Delta region from database of Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD, 2011) The rice yield data includes time series average rice yields at the province-level over year, from 2001 to 2010 The data on precipitation and temperature are collected from the statistical database by monthly of Vietnam Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Environment (IMHEN, 2011) Of which, these data based on Meteorological Stations of each region, correspondingly In detail, Moe Hoa station for Long An province, My Tho station for Tien Giang province, Vinh Long station for Vinh Long province, Ben Tre station for Ben Tre province, Cao Lanh station for Dong Thap province, Cang Long station for Tra Vinh province, Can Tho station for Can Tho city, Hau Giang station for Hau Giang province, Bac Lieu station for Bac Lieu province, Soc Trang station for Soc Trang province, Chau Doc station for An Giang province, Rach Gia station for Kien Giang province and Ca Mau station for Ca Mau province Precipitation data is time series of total rainfall within a year for each province which calculated by summing the rainfall in 12 months in a year This reflects the direct water usage for rice cultivation and the inter-seasonal water accumulation within the year Temperature data contained monthly average temperature from January to December and these are calculated to yearly average temperature for each province as well
For the next step analysis with simulations from data of previous researches, we obtained Average Annual Temperature increase in degrees by Agro-ecological zones, Average % changes in Annual Precipitation by Agro-ecological zones and Rice yield change of Vietnam under climate change scenarios as IPSL-2030, GISS-2030, MORNE-2030 from the findings research of Bingxin Yu et al (IFPRI, 2010) On the other hand, Rice Planted Area is collected based on Resolution No.63/NQ-CP on December 23, 2009 about national food security and Decision No.124/2012/QD-TTg on February 2, 2012 about approving master plan of production of agriculture to 2020, a vision toward 2030 Rice Domestic Demand in Vietnam up to 2030 is obtained from the research of Nguyen (ICD-MARD, 2009).
CHAPTER REMARKS
This chapter showed the methodology and data where econometric model was used to estimate from the secondary data There were two parts in this chapter, separately In the first part, the sample size was adopted of Mekong Delta region in period 2001-
2010 with pool data The average yield function applied the Cobb-Douglas functional form The data was collected from Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD, 2011) and Vietnam Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Environment (IMHEN, 2011 ) In the second part, the simulation under different scenarios was employed There are three climate change scenarios with GISS, IPSL and MORNE
The data was applied from previous researches and legal documents of Vietnamese Government.
IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON RICE YIELD IN MEKONG DELTA 45 5.2 CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS AND FOOD SECURITY SCENARIOS IN
Table 5.1 Descriptive Statistics of Data
Rice yield (quintallha) Temperature {'C) Precipitation(mm)
Source: Author's calculation based on datafrom IMHEN and MARD
Based on the information from 12 provinces and 1 city of Mekong Delta region in 10 years, from 2001 to 20 1 0 with panel data, the summary statistics of data are reported in Table 5.1 above The variables are explained as follows:
• The average rice yield per sown area in Mekong Delta is 47.6 quintal/hectare
The middle value of rice yield per sown area is 4 7.9 quintal/hectare The highest rice yield per sown is 62.6 quintal/hectare The lowest rice yield per sown is 30.7 quintal/hectare in 127 observations The dispersion or spread in the series is 6.829
• The average temperature in Mekong Delta is 27.2 degree Celsius The middle value of temperature is 27.2 degree Celsius The highest temperature is 28 degree Celsius The lowest temperature is 26.6 degree Celsius in 127 observations The dispersion or spread in the series is 0.352
• The average precipitation (total rainfall within a year) in Mekong Delta is 1, 733 millimeters The middle value of precipitation is 1,670 millimeters The highest precipitation is 2,872 millimeters The lowest precipitation is 705 millimeters in 127 observations The dispersion or spread in the series is 421
Before run the model, we perform the unit root test to check stationary of pooled data using the ADF Test Statistics They proposed unit root tests for panel data based on the mean of individual unit root statistics The test results are shown in Table 5.2
Based on the test results of Table 5.2, we conclude that all the variables in the model are stationary Therefore, we can apply OLS method to estimate this model
Table 5.2 Panel Unit Test Results
ADF- Fisher Chi-square Rice yield Temperature Precipitation
Source: Author' calculation based on data from IMHEN and MAR
The estimation results for functional form are presented in Table 5.3 as the following:
Source: Author' calculation based on data from IMHEN and MAR
The estimation results are showed in the Table 5.3 above We can explain the meaning of values as follows:
• Both the temperature and precipitation are negatively related to the average rice yield in Cobb-Douglas model It means that in period 2001-2010, when the temperature and precipitation increase, the rice yield per sown area decreases on average
• In Cobb-Douglass model, as the temperature rises by 1 %, the estimated decrease the rice yield is 0.45% on average, holding all other factors constant And the rice yield also decreases 0.15% on average when the precipitation increases 1%, holding all other factors constant The value of Adjusted R 2 = 0.254711 means that about 25 percent of the variation in rice yield in Mekong Delta is explained by temperature and precipitation
In many years ago, the temperature and total rain fall are the problem with rice production in Vietnam, especially in Mekong Delta Most of the rice fields in this region depend on natural conditions Hence, the climate changes directly impact on rice yield In recent year, Mekong Delta is the second high yield region after Red Delta region On the whole, the rice yield in 2001-2010 has increased but a part by applying the technological progress such as fertilizers, pesticides, new rice varieties, crop planting practices, etc But this model does not consider the impact of technological progress variable due to not available data Moreover, we only focus these variables belong to climate changes like temperature and precipitation In the past, the rice yield estimated to decrease due to drought, flooding, landslides, sea level rise and other factors And these occurred in the future and more serious in those for agriculture production The weather becomes hotter which is one of the main causes lead to reduce the paddy yield
5.2 CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS AND FOOD SECURITY SCENARIOS
Table 5.4 Average Annual Temperature increase in degrees by Agro-ecological zones
Agro-ecological Zones IPSL-2030 GISS-2030 MORNE-2030
Source: Bingxin Yu et al (IFPRJ, 2010)
Three climate change scenarios in 2030 are shown in Table 5.4 In 2030, the average annual temperature by agro-ecological will increase with these scenarios The authors had used the same family scenarios, based on A2 emission scenario from the IPCC scenario family to study However, in IPSL and GISS scenarios, temperature increases are greater than those in MORNE scenario In both of IPSL and MORNE scenarios, temperature increases in Northern are greater than those in Southern agro-ecological
In IPSL scenario, Red River Delta is the highest temperature increase in Vietnam with 1.19°C temperature increase, and South East is the lowest in those with 0.81 °C temperature increase But in GISS scenario, South Central Coast is the highest temperature increase with 0.99°C temperature increase, and South East and Mekong River Delta are the lowest in those with 0 78°C temperature increase In MORNE scenario, Central Highlands is the lowest temperature increase with 0.5°C temperature increase, and North Central Coast is the highest in those with 0.85°C temperature mcrease
Table 5.5 Average o/o changes in Annual Precipitation by Agro-ecological zones
Agro-ecological Zones IPSL-2030 GISS-2030 MORNE-2030
Source: Bingxin Yu eta/ (IFPRL 2010)
Table 5.5 presented the average percentage changes in annual precipitation by agro- ecological in 2030 corresponding with three climate change scenarios It shown that precipitation will increase in GISS and MORNE scenarios meanwhile it will decrease in IPSL and scenario But rainfalls in GISS scenario are greater increases than those in MORNE scenario In general, annual precipitation of all these regions may be increased or reduced with different climate change scenarios which are applied
Table 5.6 Rice Yield Change under Climate Change Scenarios
Vietnam RRD NE NW NCC SCC CHL SE MRD
Climate change scenarios IPSL-2030 -18.4 -26.6 -14.7 -18.1 -15.1 -26.7 0.6 -8.3 -12.5 GISS-2030 -6.9 -21.4 -19.9 -15.6 -4.7 -17.6 1.6 -1.4 -7.8
Source: Bingxin Yuet al (IFPRL 2010)
Most of Vietnam's agro-ecological zones, rice yield decrease under climate change which were exploited three scenarios However, rice yield in IPLS and GISS scenarios decreased more than those in MORNE scenario Red River Delta is one of the areas with the biggest drop in rice yield under the impact of climate change in
2030 Among of three scenarios, rice yield decrease in IPSL scenario is greater than those in the rest ones The authors estimated the yield decline is 18.4% in IPSL scenario, and only 4.3% in MORNE scenario In IPSL scenario, South Central Coast is the highest rice yield decrease with 26.7% yield decrease, meanwhile the yield increases in Central Highlands with 0.6% yield increase In GISS scenario, Red River Delta is the highest rice yield decrease with 21.4% yield decrease, meanwhile the yield increases in Central Highlands with 1.6% yield increase In MORNE scenario, South East is the highest rice yield decrease with 5% yield decrease, and Red River Delta is the lowest rice yield decrease with 2% yield decrease (see Table 5.6) On the one hand, the rice yield decline due to impact of climate change as above On the other hand, rice cultivated area reduce due to urbanization, sea level rise, etc Hence, rice productions are affected as well as agriculture productions These are more serious to food safety for Vietnam in the future
Table 5.7 Estimated Rice Planted Area versus Impact of Climate Change up to
Current Rice Planted Area (1,000 ha) 4,100 Estimated Land Loss by Climate Change (1,000 ha) -5.7 -19.9 Target Rice Planted Area of Government (1,000 ha) 3,812 3,812
Average Number of Crops/year 2.0 2.0
Estimated Rice Cultivated Area (1,000 ha) 7,624 7,624
Target Output of Government (1,000 tons) 42,000 44,000
Estimated Average Rice Yield (quintal/ha) 55 57.7
Source: Author's calculation based on MORNE' data
According to the estimates of MORNE, land loss by climate change in 2020 will be
5, 700 hectares (MORNE, 2009) Until 2030, climate change will harm 19,900 hectares (see Table 5 7) In order to calculate rice planted area up to 2030, this part used the data of Vietnamese Government target in Decision No.124/2012/QD-TTg on February 2, 2012 the Prime Minister, approving master plan of production development of Agriculture to 2020, a vision toward 2030 In which, "protection of stable rice land from 2020 is 3.812 million ha with rice of two harvest seasons or more is 3.2 million ha, applying in sync measures of advanced intensive production to achieve 41-43 million tons in 2020 and 44 million tons in 2030, ensuring food security and export" The average number of crop per year is expected around 2 crops per year, and so, rice cultivated area is evaluated From 2020, it is estimated around 7.624 million ha So that, to implement these aims, average rice yield is estimated as
55 quintal/ha in 2020 and 57.7 quintal/ha in 2030 (see Table 5.7) Meanwhile, the highest average rice yield was only 53.22 quintal/ha in 2010 over the past year The current average rice yield is approximate only 1.8 crops per year Therefore, it seems to be difficultly to reach this objective by applying in sync measures of advanced
CHAPTER REMARKS
This chapter has set up on Vietnam's food security scenarios for up to 2030 with three climate change scenarios as GISS, IPSL and MORNE The results showed that in GISS and MORNE scenarios, Vietnam meets the rice output to ensure food security at the national level and be surplus to export, but it will be shortages in IPSL scenario
These findings of this study conflict with other previous researches According to CAP-IPSARD (2011), Vietnam has still enough rice to ensure food security up to
2030 However, our study indicates Vietnam has to face with the shortages of food under the impact of climate change.
SUMMARY OF THE STUDY AND CONCLUSIONS
In fact, there are the relationships between climate change and food security Climate change will be reduced productivity, increased land erosion and land loss They are more serious in the future due to more emissions into the environment Some climate variables as temperature, precipitation, sea level rises, etc have impacted rice production in reality Therefore, they have affected food supply side and threatened food security as a consequences However, the change in rice yield under climate change is different in Vietnam's agro-ecological zones Up to 2030, food security in Vietnam will be threatened due to climate change Of which, rice supply may be not respond to rice demand
First, this study has developed a quantitative estimation of the impacts of weather conditions on the rice yield in Mekong Delta in period 2001-2010 The findings of our research indicate the temperature and the precipitation negatively relate on rice yield
It presents that the paddy yield will be decline when the temperature and precipitation rise In Cobb-Douglass model, as the temperature rises by 1%, the estimated decrease the rice yield is 0.45% on average, and the rice yield also decreases 0.15% on average when the precipitation increases 1% holding all other factors constant In addition, this paper has analyzed and compared some climate and food security scenarios which were studied by previous researches and the objectives of Vietnamese Government
But our paper evaluates food security scenarios up to 2030 by Center for Agricultural Policy as well as the goals of Government will not perform in reality under impacting of climate change Then, this paper has built on Vietnam's food security scenarios for up to 2030 In GISS-2030 and MORNE-2030 scenarios, Vietnam not only meets the rice output to ensure food security at the national level but also is surplus to export In MORNE-2030 scenario, the surplus rice output is 1.5 million tons to export In GISS-
2030, the surplus rice output to export is 0.4 million tons However, in IPSL-2030, Vietnam needs to add 4.2 million tons of rice to ensure food security at the national level In conclusion, Vietnam's food security will be more pressured in the future due to impact of climate change on food production Therefore, the Vietnamese policy makers should note in the policy and fmd out appropriate solutions to adapt to climate change as well as ensuring national food security.
RECOMMENDATIONS
In this study, we estimate the food security based on the balance rice demand and rice supply The findings showed that Vietnam will be lack of the rice for consumption under the impact of climate change Therefore, in order to adapt climate change and ensure national food security, we suggest some solutions which are carried out at the same time as follows:
In supply side: Firstly, realizes the paddy land to follow Vietnamese Government Planning: At the moment, Decision No 124/2012/QD-TTg approving master plan of production development of Agriculture to 2020 and a vision toward 2030 has been promulgated and effective Therefore, departments and local authorities need to coordinate and resolutely implement an effective plan It means that do not use paddy land to build industrial parks or golf Instead, we should use infertile sandy soil, or land used for aquaculture less effective for these purposes Simultaneously, need to perform the policies which met for rice farmers achieved 30% profit on the direction and enriched by serving rice as they will be motivated to keep rice land
Secondly, increases the number of crops per year: in order to do that, we have to change the structural rice varieties and crop structure Specifically, the short-term hybrid rice will be promoted instead of the long-term pure rice as the current
Thirdly, reduces the post-harvest losses of rice: use the combined-machinery in harvesting rice, build the planning irrigation system must be synchronized with the development of inland transportation system, associated with rural roads to facilitate for moving machinery, open the training courses about technology and equipment of post-harvest for farmers
In demand side: Firstly, diversifies the components of daily diet to reduce per-capita rice consumption: reduce the quantity of rice in diet and use the others such as com, cassava Moreover, Vietnamese consumers should to add consuming vegetables, fish, meat, egg, fruit, etc to ensure the nutrient instead of rice for mainly consuming in daily diet
Secondly, reduces the rice for animals by using the others for feed: need to use the other food as com, cassava and vegetables
These solutions above focused on food supply and demand to ensure food security
Besides that, we suggest some solutions to adapt climate change as follows: build and upgrade sea dikes system, salinity sewers system and construction of dikes closed to protect agricultural areas; plant and protect the forest to prevent deforestation, contribute to flood protection, soil erosion, etc; limit the use of fossil fuels and find alternative energy sources for those to reduce emission which caused greenhouse gases; invest in agricultural research and development; cooperate with international organizations on climate change.
LIMITATIONS AND FURTHER RESEASRCHES
In this study, we used econometric method to estimate the impact of climate change on rice yield in region-level The results of regression in Cobb-Douglas model are quite well Specifically, the signs and the coefficients of temperature and precipitation variables indicate the negative relationship with rice yield These are suitable for Mekong Delta region in reality However, the value of R-square and adjusted R-
- - - - - - square are low for the model Therefore, the relevance of the model is still low As mentioned in Chapter 4, the technological progress variable is omitted due to lack of correct information Thus, we ignored this variable and estimated the model without it Because technological progress is also important variable, so our results may not fully reflect the impacts of all variables on rice yield
In addition, this study separated the analysis into two parts The first part is for Mekong Delta region with historical data in period 2001-2010 The second part is for Vietnam with simulation up to 2030 However, we do not linkage these parts together due to the results of the first ones is not good to simulate These lead to the connection between the parts is inconsistent for the research
Furthermore, this paper used some data from previous researches and legal document to calculate and estimate food security in both sides such as rice yield, rice planted area, average rice consumed per capita, population, etc Thus, the result of my paper is depended on previous researches which are special organizations about climate change and food security In addition, food were known with many items such as corn, paddy rice, cassava, sweet potato, maize, meat, vegetable, egg, milk, etc but this study only focus on rice item
For these reasons, this study suggests that further researches should dig into the model that fully reflected the variables impacting on rice yield as well as rice production On the other hand, researches in the future need to present food security which consist other food items
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Appendix 1 Paddy Statistic in Vietnam, 1995-2010
Year Amount growth rate Amount growth rate
Appendix 2 Pool Unit root test- Rice yield variable
Pool unit root test: Summary
Series: YIELD_lA, YIELD_DT, YIELD_AG, YIELD_TG, YIELD_VL, YIELD_BT, YIELD_KG, YIELD_CT, YIELD_HG, YIELD_TV, YIELD_ST, YIELD_BL, YIELD_CM
Exogenous variables: Individual effects Automatic selection of maximum lags Automatic selection of lags based on SIC: 0 to 1 Newey-West bandwidth selection using Bartlett kernel
Method Statistic Prob.** sections Obs
Null: Unit root (assumes common unit root process) Levin, Lin & Chu t* -2.83649 0.0023 13 110
Null: Unit root (assumes individual unit root process) lm, Pesaran and Shin W-stat 0.90502 0.8173 13 110
** Probabilities for Fisher tests are computed using an asymptotic Chi -square distribution All other tests assume asymptotic normality
Appendix 3 Pool Unit root test- Temperature variable
Pool unit root test: Summary Series: TEMPERA TURE_LA, TEMPERA TURE_DT, TEMPERA TURE_AG, TEMPERATURE_ TG, TEMPERATURE_ VL, TEMPERA TURE_BT, TEMPERATURE_KG,TEMPERATURE_CT,TEMPERATURE_HG, TEMPERATURE_TV, TEMPERATURE_ST, TEMPERATURE_BL, TEMPERATURE_CM
Exogenous variables: Individual effects Automatic selection of maximum lags Automatic selection of lags based on SIC: 0 to 1 Newey-West bandwidth selection using Bartlett kernel
Method Statistic Prob.** sections Obs
Null: Unit root (assumes common unit root process) Levin, Lin & Chu t* -7.06100 0.0000 13 113
Null: Unit root (assumes individual unit root process) lm,PesaranandShinW-stat -3.11962 0.0009 13 113
** Probabilities for Fisher tests are computed using an asymptotic Chi -square distribution All other tests assume asymptotic normality
Appendix 4 Pool Unit root test - Precipitation variable
Pool unit root test: Summary Series: PRECIPITATION_LA, PRECIPITATION_DT, PRECIPITATION_AG, PRECIPITATION_ TG, PRECIPITATION_ VL, PRECIPITATION_BT,