Luận văn thạc sĩ UEH impacts of climate change on food security in vietnam

PROBLEM STATEMENT

Climate change stands as one of the most significant challenges of our time, presenting critical socio-economic and environmental issues globally This phenomenon has emerged as a pressing global concern, adversely affecting all nations, particularly in agricultural regions where it threatens crop yields, livelihoods, and the stability of vital ecosystems The agricultural sector is especially vulnerable, relying heavily on weather patterns and natural conditions, making it imperative to address the impacts of climate change on food security and ecosystem resilience.

Climate change presents significant challenges to global food security, particularly as the world population is projected to rise from 6.9 billion in 2010 to 9.1 billion by 2050, predominantly in developing countries This population growth necessitates a 70% increase in food production to meet escalating demand The burden of feeding this rapidly growing population is exacerbated by the adverse effects of climate change on agricultural output, making the task increasingly daunting (UNDESA, 2009).

According to United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC,

Vietnam ranks fifth globally in vulnerability to climate change, with the Mekong Delta identified as one of the world's three most at-risk deltas, alongside the Nile Delta in Egypt and the Ganges Delta in Bangladesh In East and South Asia, climate change is expected to disrupt precipitation patterns, leading to more frequent droughts and rising average temperatures, which threaten freshwater supplies essential for agriculture Additionally, Sub-Saharan Africa faces significant challenges, with projected rainfall reductions of up to 50%.

2020 It is a threat for agriculture sector, and so it effect to food security all over the world Consequently, ensuring food security is increasingly urgent The

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPPC, 2007) has also estimated that Vietnam will be seriously affected by changing of climate in the future

Vietnam is one of the countries most severely impacted by climate change, facing rising sea levels, altered rainfall patterns, and temperature changes According to the Vietnamese Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment, by the end of the 21st century, the average temperature in Vietnam is projected to increase by approximately 2.3°C, with total annual rainfall and rainy season precipitation rising, while dry season rainfall decreases Sea levels are expected to rise by about 75 cm compared to averages from 1980-1999 If sea levels rise by 1 meter, around 40% of the Mekong Delta, 11% of the Red River Delta, and 3% of other coastal provinces will be inundated, affecting 10-12% of Vietnam's population and potentially resulting in a loss of about 10% of GDP With a population exceeding 100 million in 2020, Vietnam must enhance its food production to ensure food security amid these challenges.

Vietnam's unique climate, diverse topography, and extensive 3,260 km coastline render it highly susceptible to climate variability and natural disasters Covering a total natural area of 329,241 km², with 29% allocated for agricultural production, Vietnam has emerged as the world's second-largest rice exporter Despite this achievement, approximately 1 million people, predominantly from ethnic minorities, still face food insecurity Consequently, the challenges of food security in Vietnam are not only critical for its population but also pose significant implications for global food stability amid the impacts of climate change.

Climate change is significantly impacting agricultural land in Vietnam, particularly in low coastal areas like the Red Delta and Mekong Delta, where rising sea levels have submerged vast regions Additionally, increasing temperatures and extreme weather events are exacerbating crop diseases and epidemics, threatening both agricultural productivity and national food security In response, the Vietnamese government and various institutions have initiated numerous programs and research efforts aimed at adapting to climate change and ensuring food security This paper examines the effects of climate change on food security in Vietnam through a simulation approach, utilizing existing climate change scenarios and previous research findings.

RESEARCH OBJECTIVIVES

This study aims to assess the potential impacts of climate change on food security, utilizing MORNE's climate change scenarios and food security projects The research is guided by four specific objectives that focus on understanding these dynamics.

(1) To understand the relationship between climate change and food security;

(2) To indicate the impact of climate change on rice yield in Mekong Delta in period 2001-2010;

(3) To explore and estimate the impacts of climate change on food security in Vietnam up to 2030, focusing on food supply side;

(4) To draw policy recommendations for food security in Vietnam.

RESEARCH QUESTIONS

To obtain the above objectives, this paper will attempt to answer the following questions:

(1) How is the relationship between climate change and food security?

(2) How is the impact of climate change (such as rainfall changes, temperature increases, etc.) on rice production in Mekong Delta region?

(3) How is the impact of climate change on food security in Vietnam up to 2030?

Among of predicted scenarios, which scenarios are suitable for Vietnam in reality?

(4) What are policy implications to food security in the future?

RESEARCH CONTRIBUTIONS

This study forecasts the effects of climate change on food security in Vietnam up to 2030, utilizing simulations across various scenarios It also examines food demand and supply in alignment with government objectives outlined in legal documents The findings aim to equip policymakers with valuable insights for evaluating the feasibility of food security goals amid climate change, enabling them to choose suitable policies for adaptation and ensuring food security.

ORGANIZATION OF THE STUDY

This paper explores the significant impact of climate change on food security, structured into six key chapters Chapter 1 offers an overview of the study, while Chapter 2 reviews relevant literature Chapter 3 examines the current state of food demand, supply, and climate change effects in Vietnam Chapter 4 details the methodology and data utilized in the research Chapter 5 analyzes the collected data and discusses the findings Finally, Chapter 6 concludes the paper with recommendations and acknowledges the limitations of the study.

Chapter 1 introduces the problem statement that serves as the foundation for this thesis, focusing on the impact of climate change on food security It outlines the study's objectives and contributions, setting the stage for the subsequent analysis.

This article explores fundamental concepts such as greenhouse gases, emissions, climate change, and food security, alongside theoretical and empirical studies linking climate change to agricultural production It reviews a conceptual framework that connects climate change and food security Chapter 3 analyzes the current food demand and supply situation in Vietnam, focusing on paddy production as rice is a staple food It examines paddy statistics from 1995 to 2010, including cultivated areas and yields across regions, while also assessing domestic rice consumption and export volumes The chapter summarizes climate change impacts using data on temperature, rainfall, sea level rise, and extreme weather events Chapter 4 outlines the methodology, employing an econometric model to analyze secondary data from the Mekong Delta from 2001 to 2010, utilizing a Cobb-Douglas functional form for yield estimation and presenting various analysis methods Finally, Chapter 5 discusses the results, highlighting the effects of climate change on food security projections up to 2030 under different scenarios.

Finally, Chapter 6 concludes the paper It discusses the main findings as well as offers some recommendations The limitations of this research are also raised in the last section.

BASIC CONCEPT AND DEFINITION

Greenhouse gases, including water vapor (H2O), carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrous oxide (N2O), methane (CH4), and ozone (O3), are essential for absorbing long-wave radiation (infrared) reflected from the Earth's surface after sunlight illumination This process contributes to the greenhouse effect by trapping heat and warming the planet.

Emissions are the release of GHGs and (or) their precursors and aerosols into the atmosphere which over a specified area and a period of time (IPCC Glossary, 1995)

Climate change refers to significant alterations in climate patterns over extended periods, often decades or more, driven by both natural processes and human activities Human-induced factors, such as changes in atmospheric composition and land use, have notably contributed to this phenomenon The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) highlights that climate change can arise from natural variability within the climate system, emphasizing the complex interplay between natural and anthropogenic influences on our environment.

Agriculture Organization of the United Nation (FAO, 2008), greenhouse gases to the atmosphere was one of the major causes This was proposed by Joseph Fourier in

1824 After that, in 1896, Svante Arrhenius investigated quantitatively These factors determine the greenhouse gas emission such as economic growth, population, consumption, energy sources, technology transfer and land use, etc (IPCC, 2007)

Among of them, water vapor which causes about 36-70% of the greenhouse effect, carbon dioxide (CO2) about 9–26%, methane (CH4) about 4–9%, ozone (O3) about 3–

Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and nitrous oxide (N2O) contribute to 7% of climate change, with research by Wigley and Jones (1981) highlighting the significant impact of CO2 on the climate They concluded that atmospheric CO2 levels are already high and are expected to rise further in the future, making it a critical factor in climate change.

Figure 2.1: Global Warming and Changes in the Climate System

 Increasing accumulation of greenhouse gases traps more heat in the atmosphere

 Higher global mean and maximum surface air temperatures

 Higher global mean and maximum sea surface temperatures

 Changes in patterns of water flow in glacier-fed streams

 Changes in recharge rates for underground aquifers

Changes in average weather conditions

 Higher rates of evaporation and evapotranspiration

 Changes in degree of humidity and atmospheric pressure

 Changes in frequency, duration intensity and geographic distribution of rainfall and snowfall

 Increased frequency, duration and intensity of droughts

 Changes in frequency, duration and intensity of extreme weather events

 Species shifts uphill and towards polar regions, resulting in changed species composition of nature habitats

 Changes in suitability of land for arable crops, tree crops, pasture crops, grazing and human habitation

 Changes in star/end of growing season

 Displacement of agro- ecological zones

 Changes in pattern of sedimentation after flooding

 Changes in shorelines of coasts and lakes

The climate change scenario represents a scientific projection regarding the future interplay between socio-economic development, GDP, greenhouse gas emissions, climate change, and rising sea levels, as outlined by the IPCC in 2007 These scenarios highlight the critical relationships that influence environmental and economic outcomes.

The A1 Family scenario is characterized by rapid economic growth, with the global population projected to peak in 2050 before declining This scenario also highlights the swift introduction and efficiency of new technologies, a convergence in income levels and lifestyles across regions, and enhanced cultural exchanges and social interactions.

The A1 scenario, as outlined by the IPCC in 2007, categorizes technological development into three distinct groups: A1F1, characterized by high emissions and a reliance on fossil fuels; A1B, which represents a medium emission scenario with a balanced approach across various energy sources; and A1T, focused on low emissions through the use of non-fossil energy sources.

The A2 Family scenario is characterized by a heterogeneous world that emphasizes self-reliance and the preservation of nations With a continuously growing population in the 21st century, this scenario also highlights regionally-oriented economic development, significant technological changes, and slow per capita economic growth, resembling the high emission scenario similar to A1F1, as reported by the IPCC.

The B1 Family scenario is characterized by rapid economic growth similar to the A1 scenario, but with a shift towards a service and information-based economy It anticipates that the global population will peak in 2050 and subsequently decline, while also focusing on reducing material intensity and adopting clean, resource-efficient technologies This scenario emphasizes the importance of global solutions for achieving economic, social, and environmental sustainability, aligning with a low emission trajectory akin to A1T (IPCC, 2007).

The B2 Family scenario is characterized by a steadily growing population, albeit at a slower pace than the A2 scenario It prioritizes local solutions to achieve economic, social, and environmental sustainability, focusing on intermediate economic development Additionally, it experiences less rapid and more diverse technological changes compared to the B1 and A1 families, aligning with a medium emission scenario similar to A1B, as outlined by the IPCC in 2007.

Sea level rise refers to the increase in ocean water levels globally, excluding factors like tides and storm surges Local variations in sea level can occur, with some areas experiencing rises that are higher or lower than the global average due to differences in ocean temperature and other influencing factors.

Food security ensures that every individual has reliable access to enough safe and nutritious food at all times, essential for normal growth, development, and maintaining an active and healthy lifestyle.

“Availability at all times of adequate world food supplies of basic foodstuffs to sustain a steady expansion of food consumption and to offset fluctuations in production and prices”

“Ensuring that all people at all times have both physical and economic access to the basic food that they need” (FAO, 1983)

“Access of all people at all times to enough food for an active, healthy life” (World Bank,

Food security is attained when individuals, households, nations, regions, and the global community ensure that everyone has consistent physical and economic access to enough safe and nutritious food This access must meet dietary requirements and food preferences, enabling all people to lead active and healthy lives.

Food security refers to the condition where every individual has consistent physical, social, and economic access to enough safe and nutritious food, fulfilling their dietary requirements and preferences for a healthy and active lifestyle.

Scenario is a possible description of how the future may develop which based on a coherent and consistent set of assumptions about driving forces and key relationships

Simulation is a form of predictions given a set of prediction schemes based on different assumptions about future scenarios (IPCC Glossary, 1995)

THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK

2.2.1.1 The Linkage between Climate Change and Food Security

The relationship between climate change and food security has been extensively studied, primarily focusing on how climate change affects agricultural productivity, which in turn influences food supply Key factors contributing to climate change include the rise in Earth's average temperature, driven by carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions Over the past century, the Earth's average surface temperature has increased by approximately 0.8°C, with significant warming observed in the last three decades.

During the 20 th Century, the average temperature of Earth rose 0.6°C and predicted that it will rise between 1.8° and 4.0° Celsius in during 21 st Century (IPCC, 2007)

Most of the scientists found that the increase in concentrations of greenhouse gases is the cause, which were produced by human activities (IPCC AR4 SYR, 2007)

In the case of Vietnam, agriculture accounts for a large proportion of greenhouse gas emissions Actually, rice cultivation and livestock account for about 43% (MORNE,

Climate change significantly interacts with agricultural production, impacting both the quality and quantity of crop yields over the long term It influences agricultural practices, including the use of fertilizers, herbicides, insecticides, and irrigation methods Additionally, environmental factors such as soil drainage frequency, soil erosion, and a decline in crop diversity are affected Moreover, changes in the amount of cultivated land contribute to alterations in rural landscapes.

As a result, greenhouse gases do make global warming and lead to change the climate

Climate change significantly impacts food security by altering key aspects of the food system, as highlighted by FAO and NRCB (2008) The five main factors include the CO2 fertilization effect, rising global temperatures, shifts in precipitation patterns, increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, and greater weather variability These changes disrupt food system assets and activities, ultimately affecting the four essential components of food security: availability, accessibility, utilization, and system stability (FAO, 2008).

Indeed, the climate change has become the global environment issue This problem is more dangerous deal with developing countries According to World Bank (WB,

Climate change is projected to disproportionately affect developing countries, leading to altered rainfall patterns, rising temperatures, increased weather events, and higher sea levels, which pose significant risks to agriculture, food, and water supplies The impacts of climate change on agricultural production and human life are becoming more pronounced, with many individuals historically suffering from hunger, a situation that is particularly dire for impoverished populations As climate change continues to threaten agricultural output, food insecurity will persist, prompting extensive research into its implications for agriculture and food security.

Research by Parry and Swaminathan (1992) indicates that global climate change will increase pressure on agricultural systems, leading to declining yields amid rapidly growing food demand, which threatens world food supply and security Additionally, Downing (1992) provided evidence of the vulnerability to hunger due to global changes, highlighting food security indices in developing countries and the associated resource pressures and climate change risks Furthermore, Chen (1990) identified the interconnectedness of global agriculture, environmental factors, and food security.

He highlighted these linkages in the past, present and future This was presented in the article “Global Agriculture, Environment and Hunger” In particular, Sinha et al

(1988) argued the food supply in smaller countries will be more affected by climate change than the larger countries

Kwon and Kim (2008) explored the link between productivity and climate change, specifically focusing on rice yield, using non-parametric and semi-parametric models Their findings indicated a positive relationship between rice yield and temperature, while rainfall negatively impacted yield, revealing a non-linear connection between rice yield and weather variables However, their study primarily addressed average rice yield changes without considering yield variability in relation to weather conditions In contrast, McCarl and Schimmelpfennig (2004), Chang and Chen (2005), and Devadoss and Isik (2006) highlighted that weather variables influence both average crop yield and its variability They found that the average crop yield tends to decrease and variability increases in hotter and drier conditions, with effects varying based on crop characteristics and growing locations.

Climate change poses a significant threat to Vietnam, particularly in low-lying regions like the Mekong Delta and Red Delta, which are highly vulnerable to flooding, salinity, and extreme weather events The primary drivers of climate change in the area include increased greenhouse gas emissions from human activities and the overexploitation of forest and marine resources The Mekong Delta is vital to Vietnam's economy, serving as the largest rice granary and aquaculture hub, contributing approximately 50% of the national rice output and 52% of aquatic products However, research indicates that climate change could lead to a reduction of up to 2.7 million tons in annual rice production by 2050, with crop yields in the Mekong Delta projected to decline by 4.3% to 8.3%.

The interplay between biogeophysical and human environments significantly influences the entire food system, encompassing the production, processing, distribution, preparation, and consumption of food Climate change arises from both natural variability and human activities, as highlighted by the IPCC.

2007) According to FAO, food systems involve food availability, food access and food utilization And so, the resulting in food systems ensure for food security

Possible Changes in Food Consumption Patterns

 Shift away from grain fed livestock products

 Shift in proportion of locally produced foods in the diet

 Increase in consumption of new food items

 Reduction in consumption of wild foods

 Reduction in quantities and/or variety of food consumed

Figure 2.2: Climate Change and Food Security

 Increase in availability of atmospheric carbon dioxide for plant growth

INCREASE IN GLOBAL MEAN TEMPERATURES

 Increase in maximum temperature on hot days

 Increase in minimum temperature on cold days

 Increase in annual occurrence of hot days

 Increase in frequency, duration & intensity of heat waves

 Increase in frequency, duration and intensity of dry spells and droughts

 Changes in timing, location & amounts of rain and snowfall

INCREASE IN FREQUENCY AND INTENSITY OF EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS

 Increase in annual occurrence of high winds, heavy rains, storms surges & flash floods associated with tropical storms and tornados

 Greater instability in seasonal weather patterns

 Change in start and end of growing seasons

Adaptive Responses of Foods Systems

Change in Food System Assets

 Storage, transport and marketing infrastructure

Possibility of Migration and Conflict

Change in Food System Activities

 Storing and processing of food

Change in Components of Food Security

Possible Changes in Human Health

 Change in caloric sufficiency of diets

 Change in nutritional value of diets

 Increased in cadence of water-borne diseases in flood- prone areas

 Change in disease vectors and habitats for existing diseases

Cobb-Douglas functional form was introduced with the postulates in Just and Pope

In the late 1970s, researchers began approximating average yield equations, which were further developed by Tveterås in 2000 Subsequently, Kim and Pang in 2009 utilized this functional form to assess the impact of climate change on rice yield and production risk The average yield functions can be expressed as: y = β0 + βtT + ∏xjβj.

The Cobb-Douglas model incorporates various inputs, including weather variables, denoted as xj, with coefficients β that need to be estimated Additionally, the time trend variable T reflects the influence of technological advancements over the sample period These advancements encompass enhanced crop planting techniques, the use of fertilizers and pesticides, and the introduction of new rice varieties.

Various studies have utilized simulation approaches to analyze the effects of climate change on food production and security Matthews et al (1997) explored its impact on rice production in Asia, while Diakosavvas and Green (1998) focused on food consumption variations in India Quinn (2002) linked food production with population consumption needs and sustainable development through a simulation model Falcon et al (2004) examined the connection between climate change and food supply in Indonesia to enhance food security More recently, Gerald et al (2010) investigated global food security and climate change projections up to 2050, encompassing both developed and developing nations Additionally, Pedercini et al (2012) assessed the potential impacts of climate change on food security specifically in Mali.

2.2.1.4 Climate Change Scenarios: MORNE, IPSL-CM4, GISS-ER

 MORNE: Climate change scenarios are developed by Ministry of Natural

Vietnam's diverse geographic zones, including North West, North East, North Delta, North Central, South Central, Central Highlands, and South, are analyzed for climate change scenarios related to greenhouse gas emissions These scenarios focus on projected changes in temperature and precipitation, using a baseline period from 1980 to 1999 (MORNE, 2009).

 IPSL-CM4: Climate change scenarios are developed by Institute Pierre Simon

Laplace, France, integrates four key components of the Earth system: LMDZ-4 for atmospheric dynamics and physics, OPA for ocean dynamics, LIM for sea ice dynamics and thermodynamics, and ORCHIDEE for the land surface The study focuses on various anomalies, including specific humidity, precipitation flux, sea level air pressure, surface down-welling shortwave flux, air temperature, eastward wind, and north wind (IPCC, AR4, 2007).

 GISS-ER: Climate change scenarios are developed by Institute Pierre Simon

The variables analyzed include specific humidity, precipitation flux, sea level air pressure, surface down-welling shortwave flux, air temperature, eastward wind, and north wind, as outlined in the IPCC AR4 report from 2007.

So far, climate change and food security are hot topics Therefore, these issues attracted many researchers Among of them, some authors such as Matthews et al

Numerous researchers, including Aggarwal and Mall (2002), Chen et al (2005), and Kim et al (2009), have examined the global impact of climate change on food production, with significant findings reported in various studies In Vietnam, similar investigations by Hoang et al (2008) and Bingxin Yu et al (2010) have revealed consistent conclusions regarding the adverse effects of climate change on agricultural output Despite the diverse methodologies employed, the overarching consensus among these studies highlights the critical relationship between climate change and food production A summary of relevant empirical studies will be presented in the following table.

Table 2.1 Summary of Empirical Studies about Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture and Food Security

Study Data set Methodology Findings

- Panel data: Asia - Rice yield

 Scenarios predicted for a doubled-CO2

- An increase in CO2 level was found to increase yields increases in temperature reduced yields

- Rice production in the Asian region may decline by −3.8% under the climate of the next century

- Experiments time- series data: India

 Crop simulation models- Ceres-Rice and ORYZA1N

- Rice yields increased between 1.0 and

16.8% in pessimistic scenarios of climate change depending upon the level of management and model used These increases were between 3.5 and 33.8% in optimistic scenarios

- Unit root tests and maximum likelihood methods

- Weather variables affect not only average crop yield but also the variability of crop yield

- Average crop yield and yield variability are mixed (some are positive and some are negative)

- There is a non-linear relationship between temperature, precipitation and revenue

- Predictions from global circulation models confirm that global warming will have a substantial impact on net crop revenue

- The temperature component of global warming is much more important than precipitation

Hoang, V.Q et - Cross-sectional - Rice production

- The temperature increases in the hot al (2008) data: Vietnam

- Primary data (Vu Quang & Loc Ha district, Ha Tinh province) production

- Temperature season and decreases in the winter

- Higher rainfall in rainy season, lower rainfall in dry season

- More and more storms coming to the south and sea level is about 10 cm higher than before

- Adjustment of crops system & cultivation schedule to ensure harvesting before flood season

- Cobb-Douglas (CD) functional form

- Rice yield is positively related to temperature & negatively associated with precipitation

- The responsiveness is estimated as +0.8

- Rice yield variability reveals may increase by up to 10%~20%

- Per rural capita disposable income

- CC will affect the food security significantly but food price had no influence on food security in the current year in China

- Predict data: Sub- Saharan Africa

- CCC (Comprehensive Climate Change Scenario)

- CCC scenario predicts consistently higher temperatures & mixed precipitation changes for the 2050 period

- Compared to historic climate scenario,

CC will lead to change in yield & area growth, higher food prices, reduce food availability

- Rice production is likely to be severely compromised by climate change

- Annual rice production may be reduced by 2.7 million tons by 2050 under climate change applied per unit land

- Crop yield reductions under climate change vary widely across agro- ecological zones

- The yield decline is estimated to be 4.3– 8.3 percent by 2050 in the Mekong River Delta

- Experimental time-series data, statistical data: China

- 4 different experimental schemes under B2 scenario relative to baseline

- In 2021-2050, B2 scenario comparing with the baseline (1961-1990): Without

CO2 fertilization effect considered, the yield of irrigated rice decreases by 14.8%

 With CO2 fertilization effect considered, the yield of irrigated rice decreases by

3.3% and the yield of rain-fed rice decreases by 4.1% on average

 CO2 fertilization has a certain positive effect on rice yield

The Figure 2.1 below shows the conceptual of the linkage between climate change and food security

Emission from carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), ozone (O3), chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and nitrous oxide (N2O), etc is the cause of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere This leads to climate change

CHAPTER REMARKS

This chapter examines the relationship between climate change and food security, highlighting that greenhouse gas emissions are a primary driver of climate change The resulting ecological vulnerabilities threaten crop yields and lead to significant losses in livelihoods Research indicates that climate change adversely affects agricultural production Food security is defined as the condition where all individuals have consistent access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food necessary for healthy growth and development Various models, including the Cobb-Douglas function, Ricardian model, Stochastic production model, and Simulation model, have been utilized to assess the impact of climate change on agricultural yields Overall, these studies consistently demonstrate that climate change significantly influences food production.

CURRENT SITUATION OF FOOD DEMAND, AND FOOD SUPPLY

According to the FAO (2008), key food items include corn, rice, cassava, sweet potato, maize, meat, vegetables, eggs, and milk This study focuses specifically on rice for two main reasons: it is a staple grain in Vietnamese diets and Vietnam ranks among the world's largest rice exporters Therefore, this research emphasizes food security by analyzing the balance between rice demand and supply.

3.1.1 Paddy Production Figure 3.1 Paddy Statistic in Vietnam, 1995-2010

Source: Author’s drawing based on data from GSO, 2011

From 1995 to 2010, the cultivated area for rice increased gradually from nearly 6.8 million hectares to 7.5 million hectares, reflecting an average annual growth rate of approximately 0.67% The growth rate was more pronounced in the earlier years, specifically from 1995 to 2000, before tapering off to an average of 0.19% between 2001 and 2010 Meanwhile, the average rice yield experienced a steady increase, with an average growth rate of about 2.33%, although this rate slowed in recent years Consequently, rice production rose significantly from 25 million tons in 1995 to around 40 million tons in 2010, resulting in an overall annual growth rate of 3.04% The initial period from 1995 to 2000 saw a higher growth rate of 4.54%, which decreased to an average of 2.13% from 2001 to 2010.

Figure 3.2 Cultivated Paddy Area by Regions of Vietnam, 1995-2010

Source: Author’s drawing based on data from GSO, 2011

In the 2000s, cultivated paddy land in Vietnam decreased by approximately 153,000 hectares, despite increases in areas like the Midland, Northern Mountain, Central Highlands, and Mekong Delta The decline was particularly notable in the Red Delta, North Central & Central Coast, and South Central Coast regions Key factors contributing to this reduction include urbanization and climate change, with significant influence from government policies aimed at industrialization Notably, the establishment of industrial parks and the issuance of regulatory decrees, such as the 1997 decree on industrial zones and subsequent laws like the Law on Enterprises (2000) and the Land Law, have accelerated the transformation of agricultural land into industrial use.

Since the introduction of the Investment Law in 2005, urbanization in Vietnam has significantly affected agricultural production The construction of numerous golf courses across the country has led to the destruction of many agricultural fields Additionally, climate change poses a growing threat to Vietnam's agricultural landscape each year.

North Central & Central Coast (1,000 ha)

Red Delta (1,000 ha) to face with natural disaster e.g typhoon, flood, drought, landslide and hurricane

Climate change also causes to narrow down the cultivated paddy land

Figure 3.3 Distribution of Vietnamese Paddy production (average 1995-2010)

Source: Author’s drawing based on data from GSO, 2011

From 1995 to 2010, the Mekong Delta emerged as the dominant rice cultivation region in Vietnam, contributing 51% of the country's total paddy production In contrast, the Central Highlands represented the smallest cultivated area, while both the Red Delta and the North Central & Central Coast regions accounted for 16% each Overall, the Mekong River Delta consistently maintained its status as the largest rice-producing area in Vietnam, comprising over half of the nation's rice cultivation land during this period.

The Red River Delta remains Vietnam's top region for paddy yield, achieving nearly 60 quintals per hectare in 2010 Consequently, this research will use the Mekong River Delta as a case study to provide estimates applicable to the entire country.

Table 3.1 Paddy Yield by Regions of Vietnam, 1995-2010 Unit: quintal/ha

Paddy Yields by Regions of Vietnam for period from 1995 to 2010 are shown in Table 3.1 Generally, the paddy productivity increased over the last time

Vietnam's rice yield varies significantly by region, with the Red Delta achieving the highest yield of 59.2 quintals per hectare in 2010, while the South Central Coast reported the lowest at 44.9 quintals per hectare The Mekong Delta follows as the second-highest yielding region at 54.3 quintals per hectare, and the Midland & Northern Mountain region ranks as the second lowest with 46.4 quintals per hectare Notably, from 1995 to 2010, the Central Highlands experienced a substantial increase in rice productivity, rising by 23 quintals per hectare.

But Mekong Delta is the largest cultivated paddy area in Vietnam (see Figure 3.3 above), so improve the rice productivity will be significantly for our country

3.1.2 Domestic Rice Consumption and Export Table 3.2 Domestic Rice Consumption in Vietnam, 1995-2010

Rice production Million tons 25.0 32.5 35.8 40.0 Domestic rice consumed Million tons 11.2 13.6 13.4 14.4

Per capita rice consumed Kg 155 175 163 166

Vietnam's domestic rice consumption has steadily increased, rising from 11.2 million tons in 1995 to 14.4 million tons in 2010 However, per-capita rice consumption has seen a decline, decreasing from 175 kg per person in 2000 to 166 kg per person in 2010.

Vietnam’s consumers like others who access other foods for meal as their incomes put up Vietnam’s per capita income increases leading to diversification of the diet

Rice consumption in Vietnam continues to rise, driven by the growing population and dietary habits As of the 2009 Census of Population and Housing, Vietnam had a population of 85.8 million, making it the third most populous country in Southeast Asia and the thirteenth globally Between 1999 and 2009, the average annual population growth rate was 1.2%, marking the lowest growth rate in the past 50 years.

Nevertheless, Vietnam's population continues to increase the momentum of population growth in coming decades It is a pressure for food security in this country

Figure 3.4 Average Rice Consumption in Vietnam, 2000-2006

From 2000 to 2006, rice consumption for food and reserves constituted a significant 59% of total consumption in Vietnam, reflecting its status as a staple food in every Vietnamese household This high consumption rate is driven by the need for food security, as families prioritize reserves Additionally, Vietnam emerged as the second-largest rice exporter globally, contributing to 21% of average rice consumption during this period.

The rest of consumption was used for seed, animal and loss

Table 3.3 Rice Export Volume of Vietnam, 1995-2010 Year 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Vietnam's rice export volume has generally shown an upward trend over the years, as illustrated in Table 3.3 However, there were notable declines in specific years, including 2000, 2002, 2006, and 2007 By 2010, the rice export volume reached nearly 6.9 million tons.

With this result, Vietnam continues to hold second rice exporter in the world, after Thailand It indicated rice is one of the major export commodities of Vietnam

Figure 3.5 The Share Rice Exports of Vietnam in World Total, 1995-2010

Source: Author’s calculation & drawing based on data from FAO, 2011

Vietnam's rice export share has experienced significant fluctuations over the years Starting at 8.8% in 1995, it doubled in 1996 but saw a decline from 2000 to 2002 However, from 2002 to 2005, the proportion steadily increased, followed by another decline between 2005 and 2007 In recent years, the share has grown consistently, reaching over 20% of the global total by 2010.

Although the share was altered in period 1995-2010 but it was greater on the whole

Over 15 years, the proportion nearly has grown up three times These percentages confirmed the position of Vietnam's rice exports in the world as well as the contribution of Vietnam in world’s food security.

CURRENT SITUATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Vietnam is increasingly affected by climate change, resulting in significant sea level rise and reduced rainfall due to the El Niño phenomenon, which diminishes precipitation by 20-25% in the Central and Central Highlands regions This leads to prolonged drought conditions, particularly impacting South Central and West Highlands more severely than North Central and South Highlands Additionally, Vietnam's total greenhouse gas emissions are approximately 120.8 million tons annually, highlighting the urgent need for climate action.

Vietnam's GHG emissions include four major types as CO2, CH4, NO2, and NO gas

They are due to activities in the energy, industry and traffic sector In particular, traffic accounted for 85% CO and industry accounted for 95% NO2

MORNE has analyzed changes of climate parameters and sea level based on observed data as follows:

Over the past 50 years (1958-2007), the annual average temperature has risen by approximately 0.5°C to 0.7°C, with Northern climate zones experiencing a more rapid increase than Southern zones Notably, winter temperatures have risen faster than summer temperatures The annual average temperature from 1961 to 2000 surpassed that of the previous three decades (1931-1960) During the period of 1991-2000, Ho Chi Minh City recorded annual temperatures 0.6°C higher than the average from 1931-1940, while Da Nang and Ha Noi were 0.4°C and 0.8°C warmer, respectively By 2007, these regions showed an increase of 0.8°C to 1.3°C compared to the 1931-1940 average, and temperatures were also 0.4°C to 0.5°C higher than in 1991-2000 (MORNE, 2008).

Over the past nine decades (1911-2000), annual average rainfall has shown inconsistent changes across different regions, with some experiencing increases and others decreases Notably, Southern climate zones have seen an increase in rainfall, while Northern regions have faced a decline In the last 50 years (1958-2007), the overall rainfall in the country has decreased by approximately 2% Additionally, there has been a shift in precipitation patterns, characterized by increased rainfall during the rainy season and a decrease during the dry season (MORNE, 2008).

Sea level rise varies significantly across regions, with data from tidal gauges along the coasts of Vietnam indicating a rise of approximately 1.7 to 2.4 mm per year during the twentieth century Notably, this rate increased to about 3 mm per year from 1993 to 2008.

The risk of accelerated sea level rise is increasing in the future, with Hon Dau experiencing a rise of approximately 20cm over the past 50 years In Vung Tau, data from 1979 to 2006 indicates an average sea level increase of about 9.5cm, with the highest recorded rise reaching nearly 13cm (MORNE, 2008).

In recent years, Vietnam has experienced a rise in the frequency and intensity of typhoons, leading to significant damage to property and loss of life across various regions The impact of these powerful storms appears to be escalating, resulting in increasing losses over time.

Recent trends indicate that typhoons are moving southward and the typhoon season is extending, with an increase in abnormal typhoon movements (MORNE, 2003) The North and Central coastal provinces are the most severely impacted, while the South, though experiencing fewer typhoons, has faced significant damage in recent years Approximately 62% of the population and 44% of the total area are frequently affected by these storms Typhoons typically bring storm surges, and over the past 30 years, half of the typhoons have generated surges exceeding 1 meter, with 30% surpassing 1.5 meters, and 11% exceeding 2.5 meters These storm surges have led to the overtopping and destruction of sea dykes, resulting in flooding of low-lying coastal regions (Viet Nam Country Report, 1999).

In the past two decades, Vietnam has experienced a significant decline in the number of cold fronts, with only 15 to 16 cold air waves recorded in 1994 and 2007, accounting for 56% of the average cold atmosphere However, recent years have seen an increase in anomalous weather events (MORNE, 2008).

In Hanoi, the average number of drizzle days has significantly decreased since the last decade of 1981-1990, continuing to decline over the past ten years Recent data indicates a sharp reduction, with the average dropping to approximately 15 drizzle days annually, which is only half of the previous average (MORNE, 2003).

CHAPTER REMARKS

This chapter examines the interplay between food demand, supply, and climate change in Vietnam, focusing on paddy production, a staple in Vietnamese cuisine An analysis of paddy statistics from 1995 to 2010 reveals a decrease in cultivated area but an increase in rice yields, with the Mekong Delta remaining the primary cultivation region, contributing over half of the total area On the demand side, domestic rice consumption has risen due to population growth, although per capita consumption has declined as consumers diversify their diets The chapter also addresses the impact of climate change, highlighting rising temperatures, increased rainfall, and sea level rise, alongside more frequent and intense typhoons While the number of cold fronts affecting Vietnam has decreased, anomalous weather events have become more common, and the incidence of drizzle days has diminished since the late 1980s.

METHODOLOGY

The methodology of this study contains two parts separately, which are econometric model for Mekong Delta region in period 2001-2010 and simulation approach for Vietnam up to 2030

This study utilizes an econometric model with historical data to analyze the influence of climate variables on rice yields in the Mekong Delta region, employing the Cobb-Douglas functional form for the average yield function By examining secondary panel data from 12 provinces and one city, covering Long An, Tien Giang, Vinh Long, Ben Tre, Dong Thap, Tra Vinh, Can Tho, Hau Giang, Bac Lieu, Soc Trang, An Giang, Kien Giang, and Ca Mau from 2001 to 2010, the research focuses specifically on rice, a crucial export commodity for Vietnam, which accounts for approximately 20% of global rice production, with the Mekong Delta contributing around 90% of the country's rice exports The region's low-lying geography makes it particularly vulnerable to climate change, with rising sea levels posing significant threats; MORNE’s climate scenarios indicate that a 1-meter rise in sea level could inundate 37.8% of the area, affecting 1.7 million hectares of saline land The findings demonstrate the tangible impacts of climate change on rice production in the Mekong Delta, highlighting the critical relationship between temperature, rainfall, and rice yield during the specified period.

This section utilizes the Cobb-Douglas functional form to analyze the average yield function, as introduced in Chapter 2 with equation (1) The paper modifies these forms and excludes the time trend variable from consideration.

T to simple model The simple equations are suggested to estimate rice yield as follows: ycx j  j x k  k

Cobb-Douglass (2) where y is rice yield; xj and xk are inputs including weather variables as temperature and precipitation, respectively

To estimate the impact of temperature and precipitation on rice yield by Cobb- Douglass function (2), we take log it, the function is rewritten by

Ln (y)  1  +  j ln( x j ) +  k ln( x k ) (3) where denotes lnc =  1 and  are the coefficients to be estimated

We utilize the Cobb-Douglas (CD) functional form for several reasons: it aligns with the principles established by Just and Pope (1979), which emphasize an additive interaction between average and variability functions Additionally, the Cobb-Douglas form offers the flexibility needed to effectively approximate the average yield equation While the trans-log specification might seem attractive, its multiplicative interaction contradicts the assumptions set forth by Just and Pope (Tveteras, 2000).

This study employs a simulation approach to forecast food security in Vietnam up to 2030, focusing on the impacts of climate change It draws on findings from research by Bingxin Yu et al (IFPRI, 2010) and Nguyen (ICD-MARD, 2009), as well as Vietnamese government resolutions related to national food security, including Resolution No.63/NQ-CP and Decision No.124/2012/QĐ-TTg By utilizing existing data, the research estimates national food security under various climate scenarios and conducts an analysis and evaluation of these scenarios Ultimately, the study aims to present a comprehensive outlook on Vietnamese food security by balancing food supply and demand through 2030.

According to FAO (2008), climate change will impact all four dimensions of food security which includes availability, accessibility, utilization and systems stability

This research focuses solely on food availability, specifically examining rice yield changes under various climate change scenarios, including IPSL-2030, GISS-2030, and MORNE-2030, as identified by Bingxin Yu et al (IFPRI, 2010) These scenarios are based on the A2 emission pathway from the IPCC scenario family and investigate the impact of climate change on rice yields through 2030 We utilize their findings alongside rice planting area data from Resolution No 63/NQ-CP, dated December 23, 2009, which addresses national food security, to align government objectives with prior research for forecasting purposes Consequently, this data enables us to estimate rice output through 2030 Additionally, we have adapted Nguyen's (ICD-MARD, 2009) projections for domestic rice demand in Vietnam through 2030.

We suppose the equations of rice supply and rice demand as follows:

With RSot : rice output supply in year t

RSt : rice cultivated area in year t

RYt : rice yield per rice cultivated area in year t (ton/hectare) where RS t = RP t x N (5)

RPt : Rice planted area in year t

N : Number of crops in year t

In demand side, rice requirement contains domestic demand and rice for export

According to Nguyen, V.H (ICD-MARD, 2009), the domestic demand for rice is comprised of four key components: seed, animal feed and loss, processing, and food reserves These components are projected to help estimate the overall domestic demand for rice, leading to the formulation of a specific equation to represent this demand.

RD t = RSe t + RA t + RPo t + RF t (6)

With RDt : rice domestic demand in year t RSet : rice for seed in year t

RAt : rice for animal and loss in year t RPot : rice for processing in year t

RFt : rice for food and reserve in year t

To achieve national food security, it is crucial to balance domestic rice demand and supply, represented by the equation RSo t = RD t Any imbalance in this equation poses a threat to food security Therefore, we will analyze and discuss the outcomes using a simulation approach based on the available data in the final section.

SOURCE OF DATA

In our initial analysis of historical data, we gathered rice yield statistics from the Mekong Delta region, sourced from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD, 2011) This dataset encompasses average rice yields at the provincial level from 2001 to 2010 Additionally, we collected monthly precipitation and temperature data from the Vietnam Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Environment (IMHEN, 2011), utilizing information from various meteorological stations across the region, including Moc Hoa for Long An and Can Tho for Can Tho city, among others The precipitation data reflects total annual rainfall for each province, crucial for understanding water usage in rice cultivation, while the temperature data provides monthly averages, which are compiled into yearly averages for each province.

This analysis utilizes simulations derived from previous research to assess climate change impacts on Vietnam's agriculture We measured the Average Annual Temperature increase and Average % changes in Annual Precipitation across various Agro-ecological zones, as well as the projected changes in rice yield under climate scenarios IPSL-2030, GISS-2030, and MORNE-2030, based on findings by Bingxin Yu et al (IFPRI, 2010) Additionally, data on Rice Planted Area was sourced from Resolution No.63/NQ-CP (December 23, 2009) concerning national food security and Decision No.124/2012/QĐ-TTg (February 2, 2012) for the agricultural production master plan through 2020 and a vision for 2030 The projected Rice Domestic Demand in Vietnam for 2030 is informed by research conducted by Nguyen (ICD-MARD, 2009).

CHAPTER REMARKS

This chapter outlines the methodology and data utilized in the econometric model, which was estimated using secondary data It is divided into two distinct sections, with the first focusing on the sample size selected from the Mekong Delta region during the period from 2001 onward.

In 2010, data on average yield was analyzed using the Cobb-Douglas functional form, with information sourced from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD, 2011) and the Vietnam Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Environment (IMHEN, 2011) The study also included simulations under three distinct climate change scenarios: GISS, IPSL, and MORNE.

The data was applied from previous researches and legal documents of Vietnamese Government.

IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON RICE YIELD IN MEKONG DELTA 45 5.2 CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS AND FOOD SECURITY SCENARIOS IN

Table 5.1 Descriptive Statistics of Data

Rice yield (quintal/ha) Temperature ( 0 C) Precipitation(mm)

Source: Author’s calculation based on data from IMHEN and MARD

Over a decade, from 2001 to 2010, a comprehensive analysis was conducted across 12 provinces and 1 city in the Mekong Delta region, utilizing panel data The summary statistics of this data are detailed in Table 5.1, providing insights into the various variables examined in the study.

 The average rice yield per sown area in Mekong Delta is 47.6 quintal/hectare

The average rice yield per hectare is 47.9 quintals, with a maximum yield of 62.6 quintals and a minimum yield of 30.7 quintals based on 127 observations The dispersion in this data set is measured at 6.829 quintals.

The Mekong Delta experiences an average temperature of 27.2 degrees Celsius, with a median value also at 27.2 degrees The highest recorded temperature is 28 degrees Celsius, while the lowest is 26.6 degrees Celsius, based on 127 observations The temperature dispersion within this data set is measured at 0.352.

The Mekong Delta experiences an average annual precipitation of 1,733 millimeters, with a median value of 1,670 millimeters The region sees a maximum rainfall of 2,872 millimeters and a minimum of 705 millimeters recorded over 127 observations, resulting in a dispersion of 421 millimeters.

Before running the model, we conduct a unit root test to assess the stationarity of pooled data utilizing the ADF Test Statistics This involves applying unit root tests specifically designed for panel data, which are based on the average of individual unit root statistics The findings of these tests are presented in Table 5.2.

Based on the test results of Table 5.2, we conclude that all the variables in the model are stationary Therefore, we can apply OLS method to estimate this model

Table 5.2 Panel Unit Test Results

Source: Author’ calculation based on data from IMHEN and MAR

The estimation results for functional form are presented in Table 5.3 as the following:

Source: Author’ calculation based on data from IMHEN and MAR

The estimation results are showed in the Table 5.3 above We can explain the meaning of values as follows:

The Cobb-Douglas model reveals a negative correlation between temperature and precipitation and the average rice yield from 2001 to 2010 Specifically, as temperature and precipitation levels rise, the rice yield per sown area tends to decline.

In the Cobb-Douglas model, a 1% increase in temperature leads to an average decrease of 0.45% in rice yield, while a 1% increase in precipitation results in an average decline of 0.15%, assuming all other factors remain constant The Adjusted R² value of 0.2547 indicates that approximately 25% of the variation in rice yield in the Mekong Delta can be attributed to changes in temperature and precipitation.

For many years, rice production in Vietnam, particularly in the Mekong Delta, has faced challenges due to temperature fluctuations and total rainfall The region's rice fields largely rely on natural conditions, making them vulnerable to climate change, which directly affects rice yields While the Mekong Delta has emerged as the second-highest rice-producing area after the Red Delta, the increase in yields from 2001 to 2010 can be attributed partly to advancements in technology, including fertilizers, pesticides, and new rice varieties However, the impact of these technological variables is not fully accounted for due to a lack of available data Instead, the focus remains on climate change factors like temperature and precipitation Historically, rice yields have been estimated to decline due to droughts, flooding, landslides, and rising sea levels, challenges that are expected to worsen in the future and significantly impact agricultural production The increasing heat is a primary factor contributing to the reduction of paddy yields.

5.2.CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS AND FOOD SECURITY SCENARIOS

Table 5.4 Average Annual Temperature increase in degrees by Agro-ecological zones

Agro-ecological Zones IPSL-2030 GISS-2030 MORNE-2030

Source: Bingxin Yu et al (IFPRI, 2010)

In 2030, three climate change scenarios indicate a rise in average annual temperatures across different agro-ecological zones Utilizing the A2 emission scenario from the IPCC scenario family, the study reveals that temperature increases are more pronounced in the IPSL and GISS scenarios compared to the MORNE scenario Notably, both the IPSL and MORNE scenarios predict greater temperature increases in Northern agro-ecological zones than in their Southern counterparts.

In Vietnam, temperature increases vary significantly across different regions under various climate scenarios In the IPSL scenario, the Red River Delta experiences the highest temperature rise at 1.19°C, while the South East sees the lowest increase at 0.81°C Conversely, the GISS scenario indicates that the South Central Coast faces the highest increase of 0.99°C, with both the South East and Mekong River Delta recording the lowest at 0.78°C Under the MORNE scenario, the Central Highlands has the lowest temperature increase at 0.5°C, whereas the North Central Coast experiences the highest rise at 0.85°C.

Table 5.5.Average % changes in Annual Precipitation by Agro-ecological zones

Agro-ecological Zones IPSL-2030 GISS-2030 MORNE-2030

Source: Bingxin Yu et al (IFPRI, 2010)

Table 5.5 illustrates the projected average percentage changes in annual precipitation for various agro-ecological regions by 2030 under three climate change scenarios The data indicates an increase in precipitation for the GISS and MORNE scenarios, while a decrease is expected under the IPSL scenario Notably, the GISS scenario predicts a more significant increase in rainfall compared to the MORNE scenario Overall, annual precipitation across these regions may vary, reflecting the differing impacts of the applied climate change scenarios.

Table 5.6.Rice Yield Change under Climate Change Scenarios

Vietnam RRD NE NW NCC SCC CHL SE MRD Climate change scenarios

Source: Bingxin Yu et al (IFPRI, 2010)

Climate change significantly affects rice yields across Vietnam's agro-ecological zones, with three scenarios analyzed The IPLS and GISS scenarios show a more pronounced decline in rice production compared to the MORNE scenario Notably, the Red River Delta experiences one of the most substantial reductions in rice yield due to climate change impacts.

By 2030, rice yields are projected to decline significantly, with the IPSL scenario showing the greatest decrease at 18.4%, compared to just 4.3% in the MORNE scenario The South Central Coast faces the steepest yield drop of 26.7% in the IPSL scenario, while the Central Highlands experiences a slight increase of 0.6% In the GISS scenario, the Red River Delta sees a 21.4% decrease, with the Central Highlands again showing an increase of 1.6% The MORNE scenario highlights the South East with a 5% yield reduction and the Red River Delta with a minimal decrease of 2% These declines are attributed to climate change impacts, alongside reductions in rice cultivation areas due to urbanization and rising sea levels, posing significant threats to food security in Vietnam's future.

Table 5.7 Estimated Rice Planted Area versus Impact of Climate Change up to

Current Rice Planted Area (1,000 ha) 4,100

Estimated Land Loss by Climate Change (1,000 ha) -5.7 -19.9

Target Rice Planted Area of Government (1,000 ha) 3,812 3,812

Average Number of Crops/year 2.0 2.0

Estimated Rice Cultivated Area (1,000 ha) 7,624 7,624

Target Output of Government (1,000 tons) 42,000 44,000

Estimated Average Rice Yield (quintal/ha) 55 57.7

Source: Author’s calculation based on MORNE’ data

According to MORNE estimates, climate change will result in a loss of 5,700 hectares of land by 2020, escalating to 19,900 hectares by 2030 To project the rice planting area until 2030, data from the Vietnamese Government's Decision No.124/2012/QĐ-TTg is utilized, which outlines a master plan for agricultural production development This plan aims to protect 3.812 million hectares of stable rice land by 2020, with a target of producing 41-43 million tons of rice to ensure food security and export readiness The average cropping frequency is anticipated to be around two crops per year, resulting in an estimated rice cultivated area of approximately 7.624 million hectares from 2020 onward, necessitating a focus on enhancing average rice yields to meet these goals.

In 2020, the average rice yield was 55 quintals per hectare, projected to increase to 57.7 quintals per hectare by 2030, despite a peak yield of only 53.22 quintals per hectare in 2010 Currently, the average yield is approximately 1.8 crops per year, making it challenging to achieve future production goals through advanced intensive farming practices Additionally, climate change significantly impacts rice production, particularly in the Mekong Delta, with research indicating a potential yield reduction of 10-20% by 2020 The Summer-Autumn crop is expected to suffer the most, with projected decreases of 3.8% by 2020, 5.06% by 2050, and 9.87% by 2100 By 2100, a 2°C temperature rise could lead to a 14.3% decrease in Winter-Spring rainfall and a 13% increase in Autumn-Winter rainfall, resulting in a yield reduction of over 5% across all three rice crops (IMHEN, 2011).

CHAPTER REMARKS

This chapter outlines Vietnam's food security projections for 2030 under three climate change scenarios: GISS, IPSL, and MORNE The findings indicate that under the GISS and MORNE scenarios, Vietnam will achieve sufficient rice production to ensure national food security and have surplus for export However, the IPSL scenario predicts a shortfall in rice output.

These findings of this study conflict with other previous researches According to CAP-IPSARD (2011), Vietnam has still enough rice to ensure food security up to

2030 However, our study indicates Vietnam has to face with the shortages of food under the impact of climate change.

SUMMARY OF THE STUDY AND CONCLUSIONS

Climate change poses significant threats to food security, particularly in Vietnam, where it leads to reduced agricultural productivity, increased land erosion, and loss of arable land Rising temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, and sea-level rise are directly impacting rice production, which is a staple food source As these climate variables continue to worsen, the supply of rice may fail to meet the growing demand, jeopardizing food security in the country by 2030 The effects of climate change on rice yield vary across Vietnam's agro-ecological zones, highlighting the complex relationship between environmental changes and food availability.

This study quantitatively assesses the impact of weather conditions on rice yield in the Mekong Delta from 2001 to 2010 Our findings reveal a negative correlation between temperature and precipitation with rice yield.

Rising temperatures and increased precipitation are projected to negatively impact paddy yields According to the Cobb-Douglas model, a 1% rise in temperature leads to an average decrease of 0.45% in rice yield, while a 1% increase in precipitation results in an average decline of 0.15%, assuming other factors remain constant Furthermore, this paper analyzes and compares various climate and food security scenarios previously studied, aligning them with the objectives set by the Vietnamese Government.

Our research assesses food security projections for Vietnam up to 2030, considering the influence of climate change on government goals We developed two scenarios, GISS-2030 and MORNE-2030, which indicate that Vietnam will not only achieve sufficient rice production for national food security but will also generate an export surplus Specifically, the MORNE-2030 scenario predicts a rice surplus of 1.5 million tons available for export.

By 2030, Vietnam is projected to have a surplus rice output of only 0.4 million tons for export, while it will need an additional 4.2 million tons to maintain national food security This situation highlights the increasing pressure on Vietnam's food security, exacerbated by the effects of climate change on agricultural production Consequently, it is crucial for Vietnamese policymakers to address these challenges in their strategies, implementing effective solutions to adapt to climate change and safeguard the nation’s food security.

RECOMMENDATIONS

This study evaluates food security in Vietnam by analyzing the balance between rice demand and supply The results indicate that climate change will lead to a rice shortage for consumption To address this challenge and ensure national food security, we propose implementing several simultaneous solutions to adapt to climate change.

In supply side: Firstly, realizes the paddy land to follow Vietnamese Government

Decision No 124/2012/QĐ-TTg has established a master plan for agricultural production development through 2020, with a vision extending to 2030 It is crucial for departments and local authorities to collaborate effectively to implement this plan This includes prohibiting the conversion of paddy land for industrial parks or golf courses, and instead utilizing infertile sandy soil or less productive aquaculture land Additionally, policies should be enacted to ensure rice farmers achieve a 30% profit, incentivizing them to maintain rice cultivation and preserve rice land.

To increase the number of crops per year, it's essential to modify both the structural rice varieties and the overall crop structure This involves promoting short-term hybrid rice varieties in place of the traditional long-term pure rice currently in use.

To minimize post-harvest losses in rice production, it is essential to implement combined machinery for harvesting and develop a synchronized irrigation system that aligns with the enhancement of inland transportation and rural roads Additionally, offering training courses on post-harvest technology and equipment for farmers will further support these efforts.

To reduce per-capita rice consumption, it is essential to diversify daily diets by incorporating alternative staples such as corn and cassava Vietnamese consumers are encouraged to increase their intake of vegetables, fish, meat, eggs, and fruits to ensure a balanced and nutritious diet, moving away from rice as the primary food source.

Secondly, reduces the rice for animals by using the others for feed: need to use the other food as corn, cassava and vegetables

These solutions above focused on food supply and demand to ensure food security

To effectively adapt to climate change, it is essential to implement several key strategies: enhance and construct sea dikes and salinity control systems to safeguard agricultural regions; promote reforestation efforts to combat deforestation and mitigate flood risks and soil erosion; reduce reliance on fossil fuels by exploring alternative energy sources to lower greenhouse gas emissions; invest in agricultural research and development for sustainable practices; and collaborate with international organizations to address climate change challenges.

LIMITATIONS AND FURTHER RESEASRCHES

This study employs an econometric method to assess the impact of climate change on rice yield at the regional level, specifically utilizing the Cobb-Douglas regression model The findings reveal a negative relationship between temperature and precipitation variables and rice yield, which aligns with conditions in the Mekong Delta region However, the model's R-square and adjusted R-square values are low, indicating limited relevance Additionally, the omission of the technological progress variable, due to insufficient data, may lead to an incomplete understanding of the factors affecting rice yield.

This study is divided into two distinct analyses: the first focuses on the Mekong Delta region using historical data from 2001 to 2010, while the second extends the analysis to Vietnam with simulations projected up to 2030 However, due to the unsatisfactory results from the first part, the two analyses are not linked, resulting in an inconsistency in the research findings.

This paper utilizes data from previous research and legal documents to assess food security metrics, including rice yield, planted area, average per capita rice consumption, and population figures The findings are grounded in studies conducted by specialized organizations focused on climate change and food security While food security encompasses various items such as corn, cassava, sweet potato, maize, meat, vegetables, eggs, and milk, this study specifically concentrates on rice.

This study recommends that future research should explore a comprehensive model that accurately captures the variables affecting rice yield and production Additionally, upcoming studies should address food security by including a broader range of food items.

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Appendix 1 Paddy Statistic in Vietnam, 1995-2010

Cultivated area Output Average yield

Appendix 2 Pool Unit root test – Rice yield variable

Pool unit root test: Summary

Series: YIELD_LA, YIELD_DT, YIELD_AG, YIELD_TG, YIELD_VL, YIELD_BT, YIELD_KG, YIELD_CT, YIELD_HG, YIELD_TV, YIELD_ST, YIELD_BL, YIELD_CM

Exogenous variables: Individual effects Automatic selection of maximum lags Automatic selection of lags based on SIC: 0 to 1 Newey-West bandwidth selection using Bartlett kernel

Method Statistic Prob.** sections Obs

Null: Unit root (assumes common unit root process) Levin, Lin & Chu t* -2.83649 0.0023 13 110

Null: Unit root (assumes individual unit root process)

Im, Pesaran and Shin W-stat 0.90502 0.8173 13 110 ADF - Fisher Chi-square 16.4184 0.0086 13 110

** Probabilities for Fisher tests are computed using an asymptotic Chi -square distribution All other tests assume asymptotic normality

Appendix 3 Pool Unit root test – Temperature variable

The pool unit root test was conducted on various temperature series, including TEMPERATURE_LA, TEMPERATURE_DT, TEMPERATURE_AG, TEMPERATURE_TG, TEMPERATURE_VL, TEMPERATURE_BT, TEMPERATURE_KG, TEMPERATURE_CT, TEMPERATURE_HG, TEMPERATURE_TV, TEMPERATURE_ST, TEMPERATURE_BL, and TEMPERATURE_CM This analysis aims to determine the stationarity of these temperature data series, which is crucial for understanding their long-term trends and variations The findings from this test will provide insights into the underlying patterns of temperature fluctuations across the different regions represented by the series.

Exogenous variables: Individual effects Automatic selection of maximum lags Automatic selection of lags based on SIC: 0 to 1 Newey-West bandwidth selection using Bartlett kernel

Method Statistic Prob.** sections Obs

Null: Unit root (assumes common unit root process) Levin, Lin & Chu t* -7.06100 0.0000 13 113

Null: Unit root (assumes individual unit root process)

Im, Pesaran and Shin W-stat -3.11962 0.0009 13 113 ADF - Fisher Chi-square 52.7875 0.0000 13 113

** Probabilities for Fisher tests are computed using an asymptotic Chi -square distribution All other tests assume asymptotic normality

Appendix 4 Pool Unit root test – Precipitation variable

Pool unit root test: Summary Series: PRECIPITATION_LA, PRECIPITATION_DT, PRECIPITATION_AG, PRECIPITATION_TG, PRECIPITATION_VL, PRECIPITATION_BT,

PRECIPITATION_KG, PRECIPITATION_CT, PRECIPITATION_HG, PRECIPITATION_TV, PRECIPITATION_ST, PRECIPITATION_BL, PRECIPITATION_CM

Exogenous variables: Individual effects Automatic selection of maximum lags Automatic selection of lags based on SIC: 0 to 1 Newey-West bandwidth selection using Bartlett kernel

Method Statistic Prob.** sections Obs

Null: Unit root (assumes common unit root process) Levin, Lin & Chu t* -6.80714 0.0000 13 115

Null: Unit root (assumes individual unit root process)

Im, Pesaran and Shin W-stat -3.50518 0.0002 13 115 ADF - Fisher Chi-square 57.3555 0.0000 13 115

** Probabilities for Fisher tests are computed using an asymptotic Chi -square distribution All other tests assume asymptotic normality

Appendix 5 Regression Results output with Cobb-Douglas Model

Dependent Variable: LOG(YIELD?) Method: Pooled Least Squares Date: 09/28/12 Time: 23:02 Sample: 2001 2010

Included observations: 10 Cross-sections included: 13 Total pool (unbalanced) observations: 127

Variable Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic Prob

R-squared 0.269715 Mean dependent var 3.852158 Adjusted R-squared 0.254711 S.D dependent var 0.149370 S.E of regression 0.145227 Akaike info criterion -0.997704 Sum squared resid 2.615257 Schwarz criterion -0.930518 Log likelihood 66.35417 Hannan-Quinn criter -0.970407 F-statistic 4.646260 Durbin-Watson stat 0.209576 Prob(F-statistic) 0.011329