Assessment of the impact of covid 19 on construction industry

i VIETNAM NATIONAL UNIVERSITY HO CHI MINH CITY HO CHI MINH CITY UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY POE MYAT THU ASSESSMENT OF THE IMPACT OF COVID-19 ON CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY Major: CONSTRUCTION MANAGEMENT Major code: 8580302 MASTER'S THESIS HO CHI MINH CITY, December 2022 ii THIS RESEARCH IS COMPLETED AT: HO CHI MINH CITY UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY – VNU-HCM Instructor 1: Dr Nguyen Thanh Viet, PhD Instructor 2: Dr Do Tien Sy, PhD Examiner 1: Dr Nguyen Hoai Nghia Examiner 2: Dr Pham Hai Chien Master's thesis is defended at HCMC University of Technology, VNU-HCM on 8/12/2022 The board of the Master's Thesis Defense Council includes: President: Dr Nguyen Anh Thu Secretary: Assoc Prof Dr Pham Vu Hong Son Council member: Assoc Prof Dr Tran Duc Hoc Counter-argument member 1: Dr Nguyen Hoai Nghia Counter-argument member 2: Dr Pham Hai Chien Verification of the Chairman of the Master's Thesis Defense Council and the Dean of the Faculty of Civil Engineering after the thesis is corrected (If any) CHAIRMAN OF THE COUNCIL Dr Nguyen Anh Thu DEAN OF THE FACULTY OF CIVIL ENGINEERING i VIETNAM NATIONAL UNIVERSITY HO CHI MINH CITY HO CHI MINH CITY UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY SOCIALIST REPUBLIC OF VIETNAM Independence – Freedom - Happiness THE TASK SHEET FOR MASTER'S THESIS Full name: Poe Myat Thu Student code: 2070290 Date of birth: May 30, 1997 Place of birth: Yangon, Myanmar Major: Construction Management Major code: 8580302 I THESIS TOPIC: Assessment of the Impacts of Covid-19 on Construction Industry (Đánh giá tác động Đại dịch Covid-19 đến công nghiệp xây dựng) II TASKS AND CONTENTS: Assessing the impact of Covid-19 in both negative and positive ways in Indonesia, Myanmar, Philippines, and Vietnam III TASKS STARTING DATE: March 2020 IV TASKS ENDING DATE: ………………………., 2022 V INSTRUCTORS: Dr Nguyen Thanh Viet, Dr Do Tien Sy HCM City, …………… , 2022 INSTRUCTOR INSTRUCTOR Dr Nguyen Thanh Viet Dr Do Tien Sy HEAD OF DEPARTMENT ………………………… DEAN OF FACULTY OF CIVIL ENGINEERING ………………………… ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENT It is my pleasure to extend my appreciation to all those who helped me to accomplish this master's dissertation work Firstly, I would like to considerably spread my gratitude to my supervisors Dr Nguyen Thanh Viet and Dr Do Tien Sy, Ph.D., for their excellent advice, encouragement, and support throughout my master's degree They provided me with valuable advice and the potential to become a great researcher during the master's program Their excellent support, keen advice, and encouragement have been the source of my inspiration I believe that the knowledge and skills they have given me will forever be a good help for my future life and career Moreover, I would like to thank my classmates Febrina Vienna Soulisa (Ebi), John Emmanuel Maano, and Justine Mharzeline Guanzon (Zei), Tung, Lien, Minh, and Nhu for helping me enjoy my graduate student life, helping me to get my thesis surveys in their respective counties, and studying with me during the master's course Furthermore, I wish to warmly and sincerely thank my family for their emotional support, patience, love, beliefs and help during my entire graduate career Finally, I would like to thank the Burmese Community in Ho Chi Minh City for their love, encouragement, and blessings that made my task easy and comfortable iii ABSTRACT The world pandemic (Covid-19, Coronavirus) started to be found and spread in 2019 unexpectedly Because of the Coronavirus, all sectors in every country were distracted, and some had to stop completely Among them, the construction industry also faced a lot of struggles to continue the existing project and to prevent the health and safety of workers The reason is that the construction industry needs a lot of human resources and material supplies (which need transportation from region to region) But the primary safety standard for Covid-19 is social distancing and lockdown to protect people and materials from each other since Coronavirus can spread via air and the respiratory system Therefore, this study aims to know the impacts affected by Covid-19 by using the Delphi Technique, including the interview with experts to investigate the level of effects, both negative and positive directions According to the results of impacts, the completion time, the quality of the project, and the project's cost were affected consequently by providing additional items, like advanced health and safety equipment and technology to monitor or proceed with the project by staying away from each other in the construction site or workplace Based on the positive and negative findings, the recommendation to apply in real life and to investigate the impacts of the postpandemic era were also mentioned in this study Keywords: Covid-19 pandemic, lockdown, construction industry, human resources, material supply iv TÓM TẮT LUẬN VĂN THẠC SĨ Đại dịch giới (Covid-19, Coronavirus) bắt đầu lây lan năm 2019 cách bất ngờ Bởi loại virus trên, tất ngành nghề quốc gia bị trì trệ, chí số ngành phải ngừng hoạt động hồn tồn Trong số đó, ngành xây dựng phải đối mặt với nhiều khó khăn để tiếp tục dự án có đảm bảo sức khỏe an toàn người lao động Nguyên nhân ngành xây dựng cần nhiều nguồn nhân lực vật tư (cần vận chuyển từ vùng sang vùng khác) Nhưng tiêu chuẩn an toàn Covid-19 giãn cách xã hội phong tỏa để bảo vệ người vật tư vi-rút corona lây lan qua khơng khí hệ hơ hấp Vì vậy, nghiên cứu nhằm tìm hiểu tác động Covid19 cách sử dụng Kỹ thuật Delphi, bao gồm vấn chuyên gia để điều tra mức độ ảnh hưởng, theo chiều hướng tiêu cực tích cực Theo kết tác động, tiến độ hoàn thành, chất lượng chi phí dự án bị ảnh hưởng cung cấp điều khoản bổ sung, thiết bị, công nghệ tiên tiến đảm bảo an toàn sức khỏe để giám sát tiến hành dự án cách giãn cách công trường nơi làm việc Dựa kết phát được, khuyến nghị áp dụng vào thực tế sống điều tra tác động thời kỳ hậu đại dịch đề cập nghiên cứu Từ khóa: Dịch Covid-19, phong tỏa, ngành xây dựng, nguồn nhân lực, cung ứng vật tư v AUTHOR'S COMMITMENT The undersigned below: Name : Poe Myat Thu Student ID : 2070290 Place and date of born : Yangon, May 30, 1997 Address : Republic of the Union of Myanmar This declaration that the master thesis entitled "Assessment of the Impacts of Covid-19 to The Construction Industry" is done by the author under the supervision of the instructor All works, ideas, and material that was gained from other references have been cited accurately Ho Chi Minh City, December 14, 2022 Poe Myat Thu vi CONTENTS THE TASK SHEET FOR MASTER'S THESIS i ABSTRACT iii TÓM TẮT LUẬN VĂN THẠC SĨ iv LIST OF FIGURES viii LIST OF TABLES x ABBREVIATION xi CHAPTER 1.1 Problem Statement 1.2 Research Objectives 1.3 Scope of Study 1.4 Contribution to Academic and Practical Field CHAPTER 2.1 Impacts of Covid-19 on the Construction Industry 2.2 General Process of Covid-19 Impacts Procedure 2.2.1 Identification of Impacts of Covid-19 2.2.2 Assessment of the Impacts of Covid-19 15 2.3 Interview Questions and Answers 16 2.3.1 Creating Interview Questions 16 2.3.2 Qualitative Analysis of Answers from Interview 17 CHAPTER 18 3.1 Research Process 18 3.1.1 Identification of the impacts of Covid-19 on the construction industry 18 3.1.2 Determining the most influenced impacts by Covid-19 20 3.1.3 Analysis of Interview Questions 24 CHAPTER 25 4.1 Responses on the Impacts of Covid-19 on the Construction Industry 25 4.2 Ranking, Comparison and Analysis of Covid-19 Impacts 28 4.2.1 Ranking of the Impacts of Covid-19 on Each Country 28 4.2.2 Comparison of Impacts between Four Countries 31 4.2.3 Spearman Test Results 35 4.2.4 Cronbach’s Alpha (Reliability) Test of The Covid-19 Impacts 36 4.2.5 ANOVA Test Result 37 vii 4.3 Data Analysis of the Impacts of Covid-19 43 4.3.1 EFA Analysis of Negative Impacts of Covid-19 43 4.3.2 Discussion on Each Component of Negative Covid-19 Impacts 48 4.3.3 EFA Analysis of Positive Impacts of Covid-19 48 4.3.4 Discussion on Each Component of Positive Covid-19 Impacts 52 4.4 Qualitative Analysis of Interview Questions 52 4.4.1 NVivo Result for the Covid-19 Impacts in Indonesia 53 4.4.2 NVivo Result for the Covid-19 Impacts in Myanmar 55 4.4.3 NVivo Result for the Covid-19 Impacts in Philippines 57 4.4.4 NVivo Result for the Covid-19 Impacts in Vietnam 59 4.4.5 Comparison of the Impacts of Covid-19 Between Four Countries 61 CHAPTER 65 5.1 Conclusion 65 5.2 Recommendations 67 REFERENCES 68 APPENDIX 74 viii LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1 Covid-19 Confirmed Cases in Indonesia, Myanmar, Philippines, and Vietnam Figure Comparison in percent of GDP between the Covid-19 pandemic and GFC Figure GDP Growth in Southeast Asia Figure IMF projections of real GDP growth rate (2020-2025) Figure 1Delphi Technique 16 Figure 2 Identification of Impacts for Interview by Literature Review - 16 Figure Research Flow Diagram 18 Figure Monotonic Function (Increasing, Decreasing, and Non-monotonic) - 20 Figure 1Percentage of Respondents by Nationality - 25 Figure Percentage of Respondents by Year of Experience 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Sheet 76 77 III Results of Communalities from EFA Communalities Initial Extraction Cost Overrun 1.000 0.285 Decrease in Revenue and 1.000 0.560 Increase in Additional Expenses Increase in rental fee of 1.000 0.362 machinery and operators Late payment to 1.000 0.370 contractors and salary cuts 78 Increase in the tax rate and currency exchange rate Increase in Labor Wages Dramatic rising of material and equipment prices Uncertainty in bank insurance and the policy for loan Increasing in claims, disputes and litigation Disruption in workload because of sickness Shortage of manpower, material and equipment Uncertainty of survival Difficultite in working with foreign partner organization Difficulties in recircuiting foreign workers Increase in worker layoffs and unemployment Decrease in work productivity and efficency Reducing of the number of projects 1.000 0.197 1.000 1.000 0.421 0.498 1.000 0.230 1.000 0.542 1.000 0.525 1.000 0.657 1.000 1.000 0.419 0.500 1.000 0.344 1.000 0.390 1.000 0.434 1.000 0.556 Communalities Initial Extraction Flexibility in adjusting the 1.000 0.516 project schedule Technical Support for 1.000 0.700 Monitoring office and worksites Implementation of 1.000 0.645 advanced technology Preparation of Backup Plan 1.000 0.489 for pandemic 79 IV Recruiting the skilled local 1.000 0.707 workforce Flexibility in adjusting 1.000 0.530 workload by allowing "Work from Home" Providing the online 1.000 0.668 platform like "Zoom Meeting" or "Microsoft Team" to get the better communication Providing the suitable 1.000 0.590 accomodation for workers Training the local 1.000 0.600 workforce to become skilled worker and to substitute the foreign workers Restructing the safety plan 1.000 0.559 including the rules of social distancing Enhancing Site Cleaning 1.000 0.455 facilities Hiring the health assistance 1.000 0.417 for protecting and providing health issues for on site workers Avalibility of health 1.000 0.353 protocools for Covid-19 on site Education for worker about 1.000 0.548 the pandemic Providing health insurance 1.000 0.574 for workers Avalibility of PPE at 1.000 0.730 construction site Always checking the new 1.000 0.740 policy announced by government Qualitative Analysis of Interview Question by NVivo Software 80 ✓ The new project with the name was created first in the NVivo software ✓ After the project was created, the data prepared in Microsoft Excel was imported to analysis ✓ Then, the question that need to analysis was selected and checked if it is open-ended question or close-ended question ✓ After checking all of the requirement were done and the data in the dataset were ready, the analysis can start by choosing word cloud in word frequency category 81 82 83 PROFILE Full Name : Poe Myat Thu Place and Date of Birth : Yangon, May 30, 1997 Student ID : 2070290 Major : Construction Management Faculty : Civil Engineering Address : Ho Chi Minh City Studying Period : September 2020- December 2022