z TRƯỜNG ĐẠI HỌC KINH TẾ QUỐC DÂN *** BÀI TẬP NHÓM MÔN KINH TẾ QUỐC TẾ 2 ĐỀ TÀI Foreign Exchange Market and Vietnam Nhóm 2 Lớp Kinh tế quốc tế CLC 63B GVHD Ngô Thị Tuyết Mai HÀ NỘI, NĂM 2023 0 0 Conte[.]
z TRƯỜNG ĐẠI HỌC KINH TẾ QUỐC DÂN -*** - BÀI TẬP NHÓM MÔN: KINH TẾ QUỐC TẾ ĐỀ TÀI: Foreign Exchange Market and Vietnam Nhóm: Lớp: Kinh tế quốc tế CLC 63B GVHD: Ngô Thị Tuyết Mai HÀ NỘI, NĂM 2023 0 Contents I What is Foreign Exchange Market Definition of Foreign Exchange Market 2 Functions Types .3 Pros and Cons .3 Participants in the FOREX .5 II The Foreign Exchange Market in Vietnam The operating mechanism of the Foreign Exchange Market in Vietnam The role of central banks in the Foreign Exchange Market State bank of Vietnam intervenes in the Foreign Exchange Market I What is Foreign Exchange Market D efinition of Foreign Exchange Market - The Foreign Exchange Market, or forex market for short, is where currencies of different countries are bought and sold It is a decentralized market where participants trade currencies with each other, and its purpose is to facilitate international trade and investment The prices of currencies are constantly changing based on supply and demand, economic factors, political events, and other factors People and businesses use the forex market to exchange one currency for another, to invest in other countries, or to hedge against currency risks Functions - Currency conversion: The Forex market allows users to convert one currency to another to facilitate commercial transactions, travel, or financial investments - Currency valuation: The Forex market is the place to determine the value of currencies around the world Traders will be interested in the relative value of currencies and make trading decisions based on the fluctuations in price - Currency supply and demand: The Forex market is also the place where traders meet each other's currency supply and demand needs Sellers want to sell their currencies at higher prices, and buyers want to buy currencies at lower prices The trade between the two parties will change the value of that currency - Financial investment: The Forex market is a place where financial investors can participate in trading currency pairs with the hope of making a profit Investors can buy and sell currency pairs depending on market prices and trends - Risk management: The Forex market also provides financial instruments for traders to manage risks such as futures contracts or currency options These tools help minimize finanial risks for investors." Types - Spot Forex Market: The spot market is the immediate exchange of currencies at the current exchange On the spot This makes up a large portion of the total forex market and involves buyers and sellers from across the entire spectrum of the financial sector, as well as those individuals exchanging currencies - Forward Forex Market: The forward market involves an agreement between the buyer and seller to exchange currencies at an agreed-upon price at a set date in the future No exchange of actual currencies takes place, just the value The forward market is often used for hedging - Futures Forex Market: The futures market is similar to the forward market, in that there is an agreed price at an agreed date The primary difference is that the futures market is regulated and happens on an exchange This removes the risk found in other markets Futures are also used for hedging Pros and Cons PROS CONS + There are fewer rules than in other markets, + Though the market being unregulated brings which means investors aren't held to the strict advantages, it also creates risks, as there is no standards or regulations found in other markets + There are no clearing houses and no central bodies that oversee the Forex market + Most investors won't have to pay the traditional fees or commissions that would be applied on another market + Because the market is open 24 hours a day, which means there's no cut-off time to be able to participate in the market significant oversight that can ensure risk-free transactions + Leverage can help magnify profits but can also lead to high losses As there are no set limits on leverage, investors stand to lose a tremendous amount of money if their trades move in the wrong direction + Unlike stocks that can also provide returns through dividends and bonds through interest payments, FX transactions solely rely on + If you're worried about risk and reward, you appreciation, meaning they have less residual can get in and out whenever you want, and you returns than some other assets can buy as much currency as you can afford based on your account balance and your broker's rules for leverage + Lack of transparency in the FX market can harm a trader as they not have full control over how their trades are filled, may not get the best price, and may have a limited view of information, such as quotes Participants in the FOREX - Central banks: These are government organizations responsible for regulating monetary policy and often intervene in the Foreign Exchange Market to keep currency values stable The policies of central banks can affect the exchange rate and profits of other traders in the Foreign Exchange Market - Commercial banks: These are financial institutions that deal with individual and corporate clients Commercial banks may participate in the Foreign Exchange Market to protect their clients from exchange rate risks - Investment funds: These are asset management organizations that invest in diverse investment portfolios, including the Foreign Exchange Market Investment funds often make investment decisions based on economic and political factors - Individual traders: These are individual investors who participate in the Foreign Exchange Market to make profits Individual traders often use different trading methods to predict and select currency pairs - Multinational corporations: These are companies that operate businesses in multiple countries and often have to carry out currency transactions such as payments and income from their activities Multinational corporations often participate in the Foreign Exchange Market to protect their transactions from exchange rate risks II The Foreign Exchange Market in Vietnam The Foreign Exchange Market in Vietnam involves the trading of VND and USD currency pairs through commercial banks and authorized dealers Exchange rates are determined by market supply and demand and can be influenced by various factors The State Bank of Vietnam regulates exchange rates and intervenes when necessary to maintain stability The market facilitates international trade and investment and contributes to economic growth The exchange rates of foreign currencies at Vietnam Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam on March 24th, 2023: Currency Currency Buying Buying Selling code Name Rates Rates Rates (Cash) (Transfer) AUSTRALI 15,294.5 15,449.01 15,946.65 AN AUD DOLLAR CAD CHF CNY CANADIAN 16,706.6 16,875.35 17,418.93 DOLLAR SWISS 24,998.8 FRANC YUAN 3,376.67 3,410.78 3,521.18 - 3,355.39 3,484.32 25,251.34 26,064.73 RENMINBI DKK DANISH KRONE EUR EURO 24,807.4 25,058.07 26,196.51 GBP HKD POUND 28,126.6 28,410.72 29,325.87 STERLING HONGKON 2,918.84 2,948.32 3,043.29 - 285.06 296.5 G DOLLAR INR INDIAN RUPEE JPY YEN 174.95 176.72 185.22 KRW KOREAN 15.79 17.54 19.24 - 76,611.48 79,684.38 WON KWD KUWAITI DINAR MYR MALAYSIA - 5,261.86 5,377.30 2,213.96 2,308.25 294.38 325.92 N RINGGIT NOK NORWEGIA N KRONER RUB RUSSIAN - RUBLE SAR SAUDI - 6,241.01 6,491.34 - 2,227.67 2,322.54 RIAL SEK SWEDISH KRONA SGD SINGAPOR 17,255.1 THB 17,429.48 17,990.91 E DOLLAR THAILAND 609.54 677.27 US 23,310.0 23,340.00 23,680.00 DOLLAR 703.3 BAHT USD The operating mechanism of the Foreign Exchange Market in Vietnam - The operating mechanism of the Foreign Exchange Market in Vietnam includes the agencies and policies regulated by the State Bank of Vietnam - The State Bank of Vietnam is the official regulatory agency of the Foreign Exchange Market in Vietnam Its main functions include managing and supervising exchange rates, providing information, and making decisions on monetary policy - In addition, commercial banks and other financial institutions also participate in the Foreign Exchange Market in Vietnam However, their activities must comply with the regulations and supervision of the State Bank - To ensure transparency and honesty in transactions in the Foreign Exchange Market, the State Bank of Vietnam requires financial institutions to register and obtain licenses to operate Furthermore, the State Bank also monitors and updates regulations on foreign exchange transactions in Vietnam - In recent years, Vietnam has also expanded the scope of the Foreign Exchange Market and allowed foreign investors to participate in this market However, regulations and limitations are still in place to protect the interests of domestic investors." The role of central banks in the Foreign Exchange Market - Exchange rate adjustments: Central banks can intervene in the Foreign Exchange Market to buy or sell a country's currency and adjust the exchange rate This helps to control inflation, promote economic growth, and maintain the stability of the currency - Protection of currency supply: Central banks can also buy or sell different currencies to protect the currency supply of a country If a currency is losing value too quickly, the central bank can intervene to prevent excessive devaluation of the currency - Financial stability maintenance: Central banks can use monetary policy to maintain financial stability and prevent risks in the Foreign Exchange Market By minimizing exchange rate fluctuations, central banks help to reduce risks for businesses and investors in international transactions State bank of Vietnam intervenes in the Foreign Exchange Market In order to manage the value of its domestic currency (VND) against other foreign currencies, the State bank of Vietnam will intervene in the Forex The key reasons are: - Keeping the Foreign Exchange Rate at a stable level When SBV expects an up-coming fluctuation in the Foreign Exchange Market, they will adjust the Exchange Rate to keep it stay in line, which will encourage the growth in national economics by attracting more FDI and boosting International trade Example: According to experts, monitoring and stabilizing the exchange rate is an urgent goal for policy makers in Vietnam In response to the long-standing tension in the exchange rate, the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) had sold a substantial amount of USD from its foreign exchange reserves to stabilize the domestic rate The report from VinaCapital and ACBS estimates that the SBV sold an estimated US$21 billion in early 2022 to reduce Vietnam's foreign exchange reserves to US$89-90 billion, which is equivalent to an import value of about months As estimated by data company WiGroup, Vietnam's foreign exchange reserves in the first nine months of this year have fallen from $ 110 billion to $ 87 billion, reaching the safe threshold However, the anti-inflation raise in the US has not come to an end Therefore, the USD/VND exchange rate is not full 10 So far, the SBV has consistently emphasized, in the context of unfavorable market conditions, and significant pressure, that the size of the foreign exchange reserves has strongly strengthened in the previous period, and that it has and will continue to sell its foreign currency to stabilize the market Accordingly, SBV will increase the frequency of foreign exchange intervention to be ready to supplement the supply of foreign currencies to the market more frequently, facilitating the credit institution system to fully and promptly meet the legitimate foreign currency needs of organizations and individuals, including foreign currencies, to import essential commodities for domestic production and business and export In doing so, helping to stabilize the market and support economic recovery - Controlling the inflation If inflation happened and caused an increase in the exchange rate of Vietnam Dong, SBV will intervene to avoid facing inflationary pressures such as lowering in the import price or rising in demand for foreign goods and services Example: Vietnam has successfully controlled inflation in 2022 in the face of unpredictable fluctuations in the world economy due to the following key causes: First, the production and supply of Vietnamese food and foodstuff are guaranteed In recent times, the world has faced the risk of food insecurity, especially when the conflict between Russia and Ukraine occurred However, domestic supply of this group was abundant, not only meeting the needs of the people but also contributing to export 11 promotion, so food prices were quite stable While food represents a high share (almost 25%) of Vietnam's total household consumption expenditure, the impact on the CPI is strong In it, the average pork price in 2022 fell by 10.68%, helped curb the food group's appreciation rate and hit the overall CPI by 0.36 percentage points Second, some State managed goods have been keeping prices stable for 2022 Specifically, in the school year 2021-2022, many localities waived or reduced tuition fees to share difficulties with residents during the pandemic If the 2022-2023 school year roadmap is in line with the Government's Decree No 81/2021/ND-CP stipulating fee collection and management mechanism for educational institutions under the national education system and policies on tuition fee exemption and reduction, education fee support, education service price in the field of education and training, however, December 20, 20 22, the Government passed Resolution No 165/NQ-CP on school fees for public education and training institutions for the 2022-2023 school year, which requires localities to maintain the collection of school fees for the 2022-2023 school year such as the 2021-2022 school year to continue providing support for people For the cost of healthcare, if the cost of healthcare services is carried out in accordance with the schedule, in 2021, the total cost shall be completed in accordance with the price law But to share the difficulties with them, this amendment has not yet been done In addition, electricity prices on EVN have not increased for nearly four years, despite the entry costs of the sector, such as gasoline prices, and coal prices, which have risen extremely high Third, because of the close, timely and drastic administration of Governments amid world commodity prices In recent years, the government has launched a series of timely solutions on tax, supply, price 12 support This has helped the business of the enterprise and stabilize the life of people, reduce significant pressure on the price ground In particular, for petroleum products, in the year prices rose rapidly as the world economy recovered along with armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine made supply scarce, which in turn affected Vietnam The 2022 domestic gasoline price was adjusted 34 times causing the average gasoline price of 2022 to increase by 28% compared to 2021 However, compared to the world, this increase is still much lower (Brent oil per year in 2022 increased by about 40% compared to the previous year) because in the past time, the stabilization fund was used efficiently and flexibly, the supply shortage was overcome in time, in addition to the reduction of taxes in petroleum has helped curb the rate of increase and support for economic recovery - Maintaining the competitiveness Along with the increasing demand for foreign goods and services, high inflation will also make Vietnamese exports become relatively higher, causing an decrease in demand for Vietnamese goods in the global market SBV can intervene in the exchange rate to make goods from Vietnam more appealing to foreign importers Examples: Provide export incentives: The Vietnamese government has implemented various export incentives to encourage domestic firms to export more For example, they may provide tax incentives, subsidies, or low-interest loans to exporters These incentives can help to offset the costs of exporting and improve the competitiveness of Vietnamese products in foreign markets 13 Promote trade agreements: The Vietnamese government has signed several trade agreements with other countries and regions, such as the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) and the EU-Vietnam Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA) These agreements reduce tariffs and other trade barriers, making Vietnamese exports more competitive in those markets Invest in infrastructure and technology: The Vietnamese government has invested heavily in infrastructure and technology to improve the competitiveness of its exports For example, they have developed modern ports, highways, and airports to facilitate the movement of goods and people They have also invested in research and development to improve the quality and efficiency of Vietnamese products - Building the foreign exchange reserves Foreign exchange reserves are important for any country’s economics, including Vietnam By intervening in the exchange rate, the government will build up this reserve to pay for foreign debts and import finance Example: In 2022, the international financial market was complicated, the exchange rate and domestic foreign currency market were under great pressure, the balance of supply and demand for foreign currencies was difficult With the size of foreign exchange reserves has been accumulated significantly in the previous periods, when the domestic market has fluctuated, the SBV has prepared resources to meet the demand of foreign currencies to intervene, ensure liquidity for the market, thereby contributing to macroeconomic stability and curb inflation At the same time, the SBV made timely adjustments in the structure, standards 14 and quotas on state foreign exchange reserves to conform to domestic and international financial market developments, while ensuring compliance with prudential, liquidity, and profitability principles of managing state foreign exchange reserves 15