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Các giải pháp đảm bảo cân đối quỹ hưu trí và tử tuất trong chính sách bảo hiểm xã hội bắt buộc ở việt nam

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* * TRUdNG oai hqc kinh te quoc dan DAI HOC KTQD TT THONG TIN THU VIEN PHONGLUANAN-TVLIEU TRAN H&I CAC GIAIPHAP DAM BAO CAN DOI QUY HDD TRI VA Tfr TUAT TRONG CHINH SACH BAO HIEM XA HOI BAT BUOC VIET NAM ChuySn nganh: KINH t( bAo HIEM LUAN VAN THAC SY KINH T< • • Nguoi hufing ddn khoa hoc: PGS.TS NGUYEN VAN DINH HA NOI - 2009 - MUC LUC • • DANH MUC CAC CHtT VIET TAT DANH MUC SO DO, BANG BIEU, HINH VE TOM TAT LU AN VAN MCI DAU Chirong 1: QUY BHXH VA VAN DE CAN DOI QUY Hll TRI VA TlTTUAT TRONG CHINH SACH BHXH BAT BUOC 1.1 QUY BHXH 1.1.1 Khai niem va dac diem cua quy BHXH — 1.1.2 Phi BHXH 1.1.3 Nguon hinh quy BHXH 1.1.4 Su dung quy BHXH 14 1.1.5 Dau tu quy BHXH 18 1.1.6 Co che tai chinh BHXH can doi quy BHXH 22 1.2 CAN Ddl QUY HUU TRI VA TU TUAT 29 1.2.1 Cac nhom nhan to tac dong 30 1.2.2 Mo hinh du bao Quy HTTT 41 Chinrng 2: THIC TRANG CAN DOI QUY Hll TRI VA II TUAT TRONG CHINH SACH BHXH BAT BUOC VIET NAM 56 2.1 KHAI QUAT VE QUY HU*U TRI VA TU” TUAT TRONG CHINH SACH BHXH BAT BUOC O VIET NAM 56 2.2 THtfC TRANG CAN DOI QUY HU*U TRI VA TU" TUAT GIAI DOAN TRUOC KHI CO LU AT BHXH 59 2.2.1 Doi tuctng tham gia 59 2.2.2 Doi tuong thu huong 62 2.2.3 Thu Quy BHXH 63 2.2.4 Chi Quy BHXH 64 2.2.5 Cac yeu to khac anh huong den thu - chi Quy BHXH 65 2.2.6 Can d6i Quy BHXH 79 2.3 THUC TRANG CAN DOI QUY HlTU TRI VA TU' TUAT GIAI DOAN TU KHI CO LUAT BHXH DEN NAY 84 2.3.1 Doi tucmg tham gia 84 2.3.2 Doi tuong thu huong 89 2.3.3 Thu Quy HTTT 91 2.3.4 Chi Quy HTTT 93 2.3.5 Cac yeu to khac anh huong den thu - chi Quy HTTT 96 2.3.6 Can d6i Quy HTTT 103 Chiro’ng 3: GIAI PHAP VA KHUYEN NGHI NHAM DAM BAO CAN DOI QUY HUU TRI VA Ttf TUAT TRONG CHINH SACH BHXH BAT BUQC U VIET NAM 106 3.1 NHtfNG GIAI PHAP CHU YEU 106 3.1.1 Nhom giai phap ve chinh sach 106 3.1.2 Nhom giai phap ve to chuc thuc hien .113 3.1.3 Nhom giai phap giam sat va quan ly 121 3.2 MQT SO KHUYEN NGHI 123 3.2.1 Tiep tuc hoan thien khung chinh sach, phap luat 123 3.2.2 Thuc hien day du nghTa vu cua Nha nuuc doi vui Quy HTTT 124 3.2.3 Nang cao hieu qua hoat dong dau tu Quy HTTT 125 3.2.4 Nghien cuu lo trinh chuyen dan sang mo hinh tai khoan ca nhan danh nghTa (NDC) 129 KET LUAN 133 • DANH MUC TAI LIEU THAM KHAO 138 Phu luc 1: DU* BAO QUY BHXH TRUOC KHI CO LUAT BHXH 141 Phu luc 2: DU" BAO QUY BHXH SAU THUC HIEN LUAT BHXH 142 Phu luc 3: MO PHONG THAY DOI CHINH SACH BHXH 143 Phu luc 4: SO SANH DIEM MANH, YEU CUA BA MO HINH PAYG DB, TAI KHOAN CA NHAN VA TAI KHOAN CA NHAN DANH NGHIA (NDC) 145 DANH MUC CAC CHC VIET TAT BHXH Bao hiem xa hoi BHYT Bao hiem y te BNN Benh nghe nghiep CPI Chi so gia tieu dung DNFDI Doanh nghiep co von dau tu true tiep nudc ngoai DNNN Doanh nghiep nha nude DNNQD Doanh nghiep ngoai quoc doanh FDI Dau tu true tiep nude ngoai r r x GDP •> rri ZX f z ZX ZX • Tong san pham quoc noi HTTT Huu tri va tu tuat ILO To chuc lao dong quoc te i r r _*.zx zx r zx Co quan cung cap dich vu tinh toan va tai chinh quoc te ILO FACTS ZX t r-r-i zx Z -4-^ r ZX r J /X thuoc To chuc lao dong quoc te NDC He thong tai khoan ca nhan danh nghia NHTM Ngan hang thuong mai NLD Ngudi lao dong NSDLD Ngudi su dung lao dong NSNN Ngan sach nha nudc OECD TO chUc hop tac va phat trien kinh te PAYG DB He thong thuc thuc chi vdi mUc hudng xac dinh trudc Bo cong cu mo phong cac gia thuyet cai cach chuong trinh PROST huu tri TNLD Tai nan lao dong VSIM Mo hinh Bao hiem xa hoi DANH MUC SO DO, BANG BIEU, HINH VE So 1.1: Co che hoat dong tai chinh cua churong trinh huu tri co mure huong xac dinh 26 So 1.2: Co che hoat dong tai chinh cua chuong trinh hiru tri co muc dong xac dinh 27 So 1.3: Co che hoat dong tai chinh theo mo hinh NDC 29 So 1.4: Co che hoat dong cua Quy HTTT 30 So 1.5: Nhom nhan to dan so 31 So 1.6 Cau true mo hinh PROST 45 So 1.7: Cau true mo hinh VSIM .48 \ •> r r So 1.8: Du bao tong thu va cac yeu to anh huong 53 So 1.9: Du bao tong chi va cac yeu to anh huong den tong chi Quy HTTT 54 Bang 1.1: Muc dong BHXH cua cac quoc gia thuoc khoi OECD (1999) 12 Bang 2.1: So lao dong tham gia BHXH (1996 - 2006) 60 Bang 2.2: So nguoi thu huong BHXH hang thang (1996 - 2006) 62 Bang 2.3: Thu Quy BHXH bit buoc (1996- 2006) 64 Bang 2.4: Chi Quy BHXH bit buoc (1996- 2006) 65 Bang 2.5: So sanh giua so lao dong tham gia BHXH voi solao dong co quan he lao dong (2000 - 2006) 68 Bang 2.6: Chi quan ly BHXH (1998- 2006) 70 Bang 2.7: Tinh hinh hoat dong dau tu Quy BHXH (2003-2006) 71 Bang 2.8: Cor cau danh muc dau tu Quy BHXH (2003 -2006) 72 Bang 2.9: So sanh lai suat cho vay voi ty le lam phat (1997- 2006) 75 Bang 2.10: Can d6i Quy BHXH (1996- 2006) 79 Bang 2.11: S6 kit du Quy BHXH (1998 - 2006) 80 Bang 2.12: So lao dong tham gia BHXH (2007 - 2009) 86 Bang 2.13: Co cau lao dong tham gia BHXH (2007- 2009) 87 Bang 2.14: So ngucri hucmg che huu tri va tu tuat hang thang (2007- 2009) 91 Bang 2.15: Thu Quy HTTT (2007- 2009) .92 Bang 2.16: Chi Quy HTTT (2007- 2009) 94 Bang 2.17: So sanh giua so lao dong tham gia BHXH vdi so lao dong co quan he lao dong (2007 - 2008) 96 Bang 2.18: Nu BHXH phan theo cac khdi thu BHXH (2007- 2008) 97 Bang 2.19: Chi quan ly bo may (2007 - 2009) 100 Bang 2.20: Tinh hinh hoat dong dau tu Quy HTTT (2007-2008) 102 Bang 2.21: Co cau danh muc dau tu Quy HTTT (2007 -2008) 103 Bang 2.22: Can doi Quy HTTT (2007- 2009) 104 Hinh 1.1: Giao dien cua mo hinh PROST 44 Hinh 1.2: Giao dien cua mo hinh VSIM den tong thu Quy HTTT 53 Hinh 2.1: Ccr cau lao dong tham gia BHXH nam 2001 61 Hinh 2.2: Co cau lao dong tham gia BHXH nam 2006 61 Hinh 2.3: Ty so phu thuoc cua he thong (1996 - 2006) 63 Hinh 2.4: Ccr cau lao dong tham gia BHXH nam 2007 88 Hinh 2.5: Ccr cau lao dong tham gia BHXH nam 2009 88 TRUCJNG DAI HQC KINH TE QUdC DAN TrAn hAi NAM CAC GIAI PHAP DAM BAO CAN O0l QUY HUU TRI VA TlJ TUAT TRONG CHINH SACH BAO HIEM XA HOI BAT BUOC ft VIETNAM Chuyfin nganh: KINH T< bAo HIEM tCm tAt luan vAn thac SY • • HA NOI - 2009 ffi i TOM TAT LUAN VAN I SV CAN THIET CUA DE TAI: Luat BHXH dugc Quoc hoi Khoa XI, ky hop thu thong qua 29/6/2006 va co hieu luc thi hanh tu 01/01/2007 Theo do, quy BHXH dune quan ly thong nhat, dan chu, cong khai, minh bach, dune su dung dung muc dich, dune hach toan doc lap theo cac quy phan tao co so phap ly quan de timg buoc quan ly va su dung quy BHXH mot each hieu qua, dap ung nhu cau chi tra cac che BHXH va dam bao cho quy dune can doi lau dai Tuy nhien, thuc te thuc thi chinh sach phap luat ve BHXH hien y r r dang phai doi mat voi nhieu thach thuc co anh hucmg true tiep toi kha nang can doi tai chinh Quy BHXH ma tru cot chinh la Quy HTTT, tu nhung bat cap thiet ke chinh sach, nhu chua dam bao quan he dong huong / r r •> den nhung han che khau to chuc thuc hien chinh sach nhu so lao dong tham gia BHXH tren tong so doi tuong thuoc dien tham gia BHXH bat buoc r or x thap, tinh trang no dong, cham dong BHXH bien o nhieu doanh cao thuc thi cac cong viec, nhiem vu chua that hieu qua, hoat dong dau tu moi chi dung kha nang bao toan gia tri ma chua dem lai su tang truemg thuc su cho quy Ngoai ra, can doi tai chinh quy BHXH noi chung va r r y y r Q\xy HTTT noi rieng dang phai doi mat voi van de ve su gia hoa dan so, doi hoi phai co nhung dieu chinh chinh sach cho phu hop 131 tai khoan ca nhan va tri mot phan dudi dang tai khoan ca nhan tuong 7 A trung Viec xac dinh ty chuyen doi sang hai loai tai khoan nhu the nao thuoc vao so nam da dong gop cua nguoi tham gia Ve nguyen tac, voi nhung nguoi co so nam dong gop it, nen chuyen phan ldn sang dang tai X F khoan ca nhan; va voi nhung nguoi co so nam dong gop nhieu thi nen chuyen phan ldn sang dang tai khoan ca nhan tuong trung Viec lam nhu vay se gop x x r r phan giam thieu cu soc ve tai chinh hang loat ngudi tham gia he thong sau nam 1995 ve huu 7X7 X F Thu ba, Nha nudc can cd quy dinh cu the ve tudi nghi huu tdi thieu r x r Viec su dung quy dinh mang lai hai dieu cd loi Mot la, se han che dupe sd luong lao dong cd hieu suat va nang suat cao rut khoi thi trudng lao dong qua sdm de dam bao hoat dong cua nen kinh te Hai la, viec nghi huu sdm hay F muon se anh hudng true tiep den ngudi hudng thu chu khong phai tat ca nhung f f r ngudi tham gia boi vi tinh trung binh thi muc hudng hang nam he thong x x f f bang tong luong tien tich luy tuong trung chia cho sd nam du kien hudng r r x r luong huu (tuc la sd nam ke tu ve huu cho den luc chet) f Thu tu, du viec ap dung he thong la kha thi, nhung chung ta cung r r x r can chu y den mot sd nhung han che sau day: r F - He thong tai khoan ca nhan tuong trung mang tinh chat cua mot he r x f thong cd muc hudng dupe xac dinh theo muc ddng, nhung ve mat ban chat, no van giong he thong thuc thuc chi nen van de bat cong bang giua cac the he tham gia he thong van cd the ton tai vao each tinh ddng- hudng Viec ap dung he thong can phai dupe trien khai dan de giam thieu su bat x x f r e x cong bang Mot dieu chac chan la ganh nang no luong huu tiem an se san se deu cho cac the he, thay vi chi cd nhung the he lao dong tuong lai nhu he thong thuc thuc chi 132 - He thong tai khoan ca nhan tuong trung la he thong mdi la va kho hieu doi vdi ngudi tham gia, tham chi vdi ca cac nha quan ly he thong, vi su khac biet cua he thong vdi he thong thuc thuc chi khong nhieu Do do, viec thuc hien chuyen doi he thong can phai duoc thong tin ro rang, dac biet viec tinh toan muc dong da tich luy va muc hudng - Nhu da neu tren, he thong duoc thuc hien doi hoi phai co he thong thong ke ke toan hoan chinh nen budc dau se tac dong ldn den chi phi nang cap he thong thong tin, dao tao cua cac co quan co lien quan, dac biet la cua BHXH Viet Nam 133 KET LUAN Luat BHXH dcri va cd hieu luc thi hanh tir 01 thang 01 nam rv r x r 2007 Theo do, cung voi viec dieu chinh cac muc tro cap moi che X A , X BHXH gop phan dam bao tot hon quyen va lgi ich cua NLD viec tham gia va thu hudng che do, chinh sach BHXH thi Luat cung co quy dinh dieu chinh ve muc dong gop cua NLD va NSDLD vdi mot lo trinh thich hop A X e e r Nhung noi dung thay doi he thong chinh sach ve BHXH gian tiep hoac true tiep tac dong den su can doi quy BHXH Vdi viec md rong doi tugng tham gia BHXH, thuc thi mot he thong che BHXH vdi nhung quy dinh ve X X muc hudng, muc dong dugc dieu chinh, cung vdi viec quy dinh cu the ve su X dung, quan ly quy HTTT theo hudng khong chi dam bao quyen thu hudng cua NLD ma phai dam bao can doi ben vung quy HTT Bdi vay, viec cuu tim cac giai phap can doi quy HTTT thuc hien Luat BHXH la mot yeu cau buc thiet khong chi ve ly luan ma ca thuc tien Nhung ly luan co ban ve quy BHXH noi chung va Quy HTTT noi rieng, ve ngudn hinh thanh, quan ly va su dung quy BHXH, phan tich cac nhan to tac dong den su can doi dai han quy BHXH cung nhu van dung mot so md hinh du bao ve can doi quy HTTT phan tich tai chinh BHXH da dugc Luan van he thong lam co sd khoa hgc cho viec danh gia, phan tich thuc trang quy HTTT thdi gian qua mot each khach quan, dap ung dugc muc tieu dat Lua chon nhung giai phap phu hgp, kha thi dam bao can doi quy HTTT can thiet phai cd su phan tich, danh gia mot each day du, khoa hgc thuc trang Quy HTTT theo cac quy dinh cua chinh sach BHXH trudc va sau Luat BHXH co hieu luc thi hanh Danh gia nhung mat tich cue, han che va nguyen nhan cua cac ton tai chinh sach anh hudng den tai chinh quy 134 HTTT la co so quan de xuat van de can duoc giai quyet thoi gian toi ve mot so quy dinh can duoc nghien cuu, bo sung hoan thien, chinh sach, che BHXH, cac quy dinh ve quan ly va su dung quy BHXH dam bao can doi quy HTTT dai han va cac giai phap thuc hien Cac phan tich thuc trang thu chi quy BHXH trudc co Luat BHXH cho thay noi len hai van de anh hudng manh va ro nhat den tai chinh va tinh ben vung cua quy, la: (a) muc tuan thu thuc hien chinh z r sach BHXH thap, the hien d ty le tham gia cua khu vuc ngoai quoc doanh thap va (b) ton tai mot so bat hop ly ve chinh sach BHXH cho cac che dai han Dieu cung cd nghia, neu tang duoc ty le lao dong tham gia x r x x r x BHXH, giam dan cac bat hop ly ve chinh sach va dieu chinh dan mot so chi tieu lien quan den he thong theo trinh phat trien kinh te- xa hoi thi he thong BHXH theo nguyen tac ddng hudng vdi muc hudng xac dinh van cd the tri duoc lau dai Tinh trang tron ddng va no BHXH van mang tinh bien, cd the thay mdi quan he hai chieu giua chinh sach BHXH, cu the la ty le ddng, ty le tham gia BHXH va ty le thuc thu BHXH Song cung can nhan ro, khong phai muc tuan thu thap la ty le ddng gop cao, ma duoc ly giai d kha nang tuyen truyen, bien phap luat tdi NLD va NSDLD han che; su nhan thuc, va y thuc chap hanh luat phap cua cac ben tham gia, thuc hien cac bien phap che tai thuc thi chinh sach, nang luc quan ly va thuc hien chinh z sach cua co quan BHXH cac cap z z Vdi nhung quy dinh cua Luat BHXH da khac phuc co ban nhung bat hop ly ve chinh sach, che BHXH thdi gian qua va thuc hien day du, X z nghiem tuc cac quy dinh la dieu kien co ban dam bao can doi quy HTTT dai han 135 Tuy nhien vdi viec thuc hien Luat BHXH gan nam qua, nhung ket qua danh gia ve thuc trang quy HTTT cho thay khong it nhung thach thuc dat tac dong tieu cuc den kha nang can doi quy, la: (a) Doi tuong dong r r r gop vao quy co toc tang cham so vdi toc tang doi tuong thu hudng; (b) Muc chi co xu hudng tang cao so vdi muc thu; (c) Do tuan thu chua cao; va (d) Dau tu quy BHXH co ty le sinh loi thap •> r r r De khac phuc tot nhat nhung thach thuc neu tren cung; co nghia lai dam bao duoc can doi Quy HTTT dai han, can thiet phai thuc hien mot Z X z he thong dong bo cac giai phap, trudc het la viec thuc hien dung dung quy dinh cua Luat BHXH va cac van ban hudng dan Do la: (a) Tuan thu lo trinh tang dan muc dong cua NSDLD va NLD duoc thuc hien tu nam 2010; (b) Tuan thu quy dinh ve tien luong, tien cong thang dong BHXH bat buoc; (c) Thuc hien chat che quy dinh tuoi nghi viec doi vdi NLD thuoc moi x Z X phan kinh te duoc hudng luong huu; (d) Dieu chinh luong huu tren co sd muc tang cua chi so gia sinh hoat va tang trudng kinh te Dong thoi, tiep tnc nghien cuu, xay dung va hoan thien he thong chinh sach ve BHXH cho phu hop hon vdi dieu kien mdi Cung vdi viec tuan thu cac quy dinh cua Luat BHXH, phai thuc hien dong bo cac giai phap ve to chuc thuc hien cung nhu cac giai phap hoat dong giam sat va quan ly Do la: (a) Doi mdi hoat dong to chuc BHXH theo Z X z hudng thuc hien co che tu chu, tu chiu trach nhiem ve quan ly doi tuong, thuchi BHXH, quan ly quy BHXH va cung cap dich cong; (b) Lam chu va nang cao tinh hieu qua cua cong cn quan ly; (c) Giam dan chi phi quan ly tren co sd cai cach hanh chinh manh me, dua dan cong nghe tin hoc quan ly he thong; (d) Nang cao trach nhiem cua Hoi dong quan ly BHXH Viet Nam; (e) Nang cao hieu qua hoat dong dau tu tang trudng quy BHXH; (g) Quan ly doi tuong tham gia BHXH va thuc hien dong BHXH dung, du; (h) Hoat dong 136 r r \ tai chinh cua ca quan BHXH; quan ly doi tugng thu huong va van de chi dung, kip thoi; van de hoat dong dau tu tang trudng quy BHXH; (1) Thuc hien che bao cao va kiem toan theo dung quy dinh cua Luat BHXH Tiep tuc hoan thien khung phap luat, chinh la khuyen nghi mang tinh cac van ban dudi luat hudng dan thuc hien Luat BHXH Thuc hien dong bo cac giai phap dau tu hieu qua quy BHXH dam bao su tang trudng ben vung cua quy; co che tai du manh de nang cao tinh tuan thu thuc thi phap luat BHXH Trong ngan han, can co nghien cuu dieu chinh nang dan tuoi nghi huu cua NLD de phu hop vdi su phat trien kinh te- xa hoi r a a Nha nudc can thuc hien day du nghia vu cua minh doi vdi Quy HTTT trudc het dam bao viec chuyen kip thdi vao quy HTTT khoan kinh phi NSNN de dong BHXH cho thdi gian lam viec trudc 01/01/1995 doi vdi NLD cd thdi gian lam viec khu vuc Nha nudc trudc 01/01/1995 •try De thuc hien dugc tot cac giai phap nham nang cao hieu qua hoat dong dau tu Quy BHXH, can thuc hien mot so noi dung cong viec sau: (a) Dinh hudng ve quy trinh quan ly, che so sach bao cao; (b) Quan ly rui ro, tai chinh ke toan; (c) Co cau quan ly nhan su; (d) Thuc hien dinh ky nam du bao kha nang can doi quy BHXH dai han tren cor sd danh gia day du thuc trang quan ly, su dung quy vdi cac chinh sach dugc ban hanh A X *> A Dong thoi, cung can chu dong nghien cuu de tung budc chuyen dan he thong BHXH hien theo co che dong hudng vdi muc hudng xac dinh sang sang md hinh tai khoan ca nhan danh nghia (NDC) Vdi viec tri mot he thong BHXH thuc thuc chi nhu hien se khong dam bao su ben r r vung cua quy dai han Vdi nhung thach thuc ve mot co cau dan so a 137 Kinh nghiem d nhieu nudc da thuc hien chinh sach BHXH vdi nguyen tac ddng hudng vdi muc hudng xac dinh nhu he thong hien hanh thi dai ■ m X \ han thay doi ve chinh sach van khong du kha nang tri quy Do do, can r chu dong nghien cuu de tim phuong an cai each he thong cho phu hop vdi •> r r x r x dieu kien kinh te- xa hoi cua dat nudc, de tien tdi chuyen dan sang mo hinh tai khoan ca nhan danh nghia (NDC) la mot su lua chon Luan van da khuyen nghi viec thuc hien dinh ky nam mot lan du bao r x _ kha nang can doi quy BHXH dai han tren co sd danh gia day du thuc r trang quan ly, su dung quy vdi cac chinh sach duoc ban hanh Ket qua du bao x r la co sd de cac co quan hoach dinh chinh sach de xuat viec sua doi, bo r _ r sung cac chinh sach, che BHXH thuc hien trudc mat cung nhu lau dai 138 DANH MUC TAI LIEU THAM KHAO Tieng Viet: Nguyen Thi Tue Anh (2005), Mo hinh thong ke du bao tdi chinh quy BHXH Viet Nam, Du an ho tro xay dung Luat BHXH o Viet Nam, Ha Noi BHXH Viet Nam (2003-2009), Du toan nam tu 2003 den 2009, Ha Noi Bo Lao dong- Thuong binh va Xa hoi (1991), So tay hudng dan sic dung mo hinh tinh toan quy BHXH d Viet Nam, Ha Noi Bo Lao ddng- Thuong binh va Xa hoi (2001), Chinh sach Lao dongThucmg binh va Xa hoi cong cuoc ddi mdi, Nxb Lao dong- Xa hoi, Ha Noi Bo Lao dong- Thuong binh va Xa hoi (2006), Bao cao tong ket chinh sach BHXH, Ha Noi a r \ Bo Tu phap (2006), Dac san tuyen truyen phap luat so Chuyen de: Luat BHXH, Nxb Tu phap, Ha Noi Quoc hoi nude CHXHCN Viet Nam (2006), Luat Bao hiem xa hoi Nguyen Thi Kim Phung (2005), Danh gid chinh sach BHXH hien hanh, Du an ho tro xay dung Luat BHXH o Viet Nam, Ha Noi 10 Quy dan so Lien hop quoc 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Noi Tieng Anh: Chlon-Dominczak, A., and Mora, M (2006), “The NDC Reform in the Czech Republic”, in Holzmann, R., and Palmer, E (eds.) Pension Reform, pp 551- 572 Franco, D., Marino, M.R, and Zotteri, S (2004), “Pension Expenditure Projections, Pension Liabilities, and European Union Fiscal Rules”, Paper presented in the International Workshop on the Balance Sheet of Social Security Pensions, Hitotsubashi University, Japan 140 Giang Thanh Long and Pfau, W D (2007), “The Elderly Population in Vietnam during Economic Transformation: An Overview”, Social Issues under Economic Transformation and Integration in Vietnam, pp 185-210 ILO (1998), “Vietnam: Actuarial Valuation of the Vietnam Social Security Scheme”, Project VIE24V3.598 Geneva OECD (2005), “Ageing and Pension Reforms: Implications for Financial Markets and Economic Policies”, November 2005 Supplement, Paris Takayama, N (2006), “Reforming the Social Security in Japan: Is NDC the Answer”, in Robert Holzmann & Edward Palmer (eds.,) Pension Reform, the World Bank United Nations (2007), World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision Population Database, United Nations Population Division, New York: United Nations 141 Phu• luc • 1: D L BAO QUY BHXH IRIJOC KHI CO LUAT BHXH Nguon: Ket qua die bao theo tinh toan cua Mo hinh VSIM 142 Phu• luc 2: • DU* BAO QUY BHXH SAU TH IK HIEN LUAT BHXH Ngudn: Ket qua die bao theo tinh toan cua Md hinh VSIM 143 Phu• luc • 3: MO PHONG THAY DOI CHINH SACH BHXH Kinh nghiem cac nude: Cac phutfng an cai each trirdc nguy co’ mat can doi tai chinh quy HTTT Noi dung/ Vi du Phuong an Vi du: nudc Anh da tang tuoi nghi huu cua nu tir 60 len Tang tuoi nghi huu 65 Cd y tuong cho rang can tang tuoi theo ky vong song d ngudi ldn hay bang song r r Da hoac du kien se thuc hien d mot so nudc, vi du: Due, Giam ty le thay the Phap, Nhat Thudng khong duoc cac nha hoach dinh chinh sach ua Tang muc dong thich, nhung van duoc su dung d nhieu nudc Tang so nam bat buoc de a r x Da duoc thuc hien d nhieu nudc nhu Uc, Phap, Bo Dao hudng muc tdi da Nha, Tay Ban Nha va Anh Tang so nam lam can cu The hien su minh bach ve tinh luong huu dua vao thu tinh luong huu nhap Tang so nam tinh theo tuoi nghi huu, khong nen dua so nam huu Dieu chinh theo thu nhap tuc la tang theo toc tang theo lam phat hon la theo truong kinh te, do gay ap luc tang chi cho quy bdi toc thu nhap tang thu nhap thudng cao hon toc tang gia Khong khuyen khich ve Bien phap thudng co y nghia doi vdi cac nudc phat huu sdm bang each tang trien, co tac dong giam that nghiep Dieu dieu chinh luong hudng kien r hoac giam muc hudng Khuyen r den khich lao dong Giam thue suat bien doi vdi thu nhap tang them cua lam ngudi tuoi huu nhung van lam viec Tuoi cang i tuoi nghi viec lau hon huu r r cao, thue suat cang giam Vi du d Hoa Ky, nam 2000 ngudi tu 62-65 tuoi neu co thu nhap tren muc 10.080 USD thi cu USD se phai nop thue USD; tuoi tu 6569 se chi nop USD cho USD kiem dugc neu thu nhap dudi 17.000 USD 144 hudng Tang muc hudng cho mdi nam ddng gop sau tudi nghi khac cho moi nam huu cho cao hon ty le cua trudc tudi ve huu Vi du, dong cur mdi nam dong sau tudi huu, ty le hudng la 2% thay vi Ap dung ty BHXH le sau tudi him 1% cua trudc tudi huu Ve huu tir tir va hudng Duqc ap dung d nhieu nudc Vi du d Phan Lan thuc hien luong huu mot phan cho Id tir 56 tudi trd len; d Phap va Dire chinh phu trq cap r x r x •> de khuyen khich ve huu tir tir bat dau tir tudi 55 Bien phap nhin chung khong co tac dong tich cue nhu phuong an keo dai thdi gian lam viec hoac thay doi ty le cho mdi nam ddng sau tudi ve huu Cho phep quy BHXH Da thuc hien d mot sd nudc bang each tao chu dong cho dau tu nuoc ngoai quy dau tu vao noi co ty suat loi nhuan cao Cho phep chuyen trq cap Da duqc ap dung d mot vai noi nhung khong phai la bien huu tri nudc ngoai phap giam ap luc ve tai chinh quy ma la khuyen khich di chuyen lao dong cua lao dong gia Tuy nhien, bien phap tac dong gian tiep tdi giam that nghiep va giam nhu cau chi tieu cua chinh phu va ve huu sdm Bat buoc NLD tang tiet Vi du: Singapore bat buoc phai tiet kiem 40% thu nhap kiem (chuyen he thong) va phan ldn chi duqc rut ve huu Uii diem la tang tiet kiem, thuc day tang trudng kinh te va giam hanh vi thien can, khong lo lang cho luc ve gia tre cua r 99 mot sd ngudi Nhuqc diem la co the anh hudng tdi cung lao dong tiet kiem co the duqc coi la mot loai thue va can thiep sau vao y thich cua ca nhan Ngoai ra, nhieu ngudi ve huu da tiet kiem qua muc thdi gian lao dong bang each giam chi tieu 145 Phu luc 4: SO SANH DIEM MANH, YEU CUA BA MO HINH PAYG DB, TAI KHOAN CA NHAN VA TAI KHOAN CA NHAN DANH NGHIA (NDC) x^ Mo hinh PAYG DB Manh yeu Tai khoan ca nhan Tai khoan ca nhan danh nghia (NDC) x^ - Tinh cong bang cao vi xa hoi cao xay - Co tinh cong y bang cao (vi muc rui ro ve tai huong dua tren chat che chinh dong gop cua - Tinh tuong trg minh, co tinh den r chi so gia) £ Diem manh - Co tinh ben vung cao vi quy dugc moi quan he dong hudng - Tinh ben vung kha cao (cao hon PAYG) viec chi tra da tinh tren cor sd muc dong - Cd tinh minh bach bao dam boi chinh dong gop cua ngudi tham gia - Tinh linh hoat ca tinh muc hudng (ngudi nghi huu sdm) hoac - Tinh linh hoat cao NLD dich chuyen cho ngudi tham gia - Kho bao dam - Tinh kha thi - Tinh tuong trg khong tinh cong bang khong cao (chi phi cao nhat la cong bang chuyen doi cao) va y - Tinh ben vung cung giua cac the he doi hoi dieu kien r > - Tinh ben vung thap va phu thuoc Diem yeu thi trudng tai chinh van hanh tot vao so lugng - Tinh tuong trg xa ngudi tham gia hoi thap Ganh nang chi tra se xay xu hucmg gia hoa dan r - Chi phi van hanh cao vi viec quan ly tai khoan kha phuc so manh tap- phu thuoc vao so lugng ngudi tham gia

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