Báo cáo " Cuộc khủng hoảng hạt nhân Iran (2001 - 2008) và thái độ của châu Âu." pptx

cuoc KHUNG HORNG HM NHRN IRRN (2001 - 2008) vA THni DO cun CHnu nu PGS.TS. Nguyen Van Tan D^i hpc Khoa hpc - Dai hpc Hue Ths. Tran Ngoc VT Tru&ng THPT so 3 Qudng Trach 1. Khai quat chuong trinh h^t nhan Iran trudc khung hoang Chuong trinh hat nhan cua Iran bat dau dudi thai vua Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, ngudi dugc Anh - My giiip siic quay trd lai nam quyen sau cudc dao chinh 1953 lat dd Chinh phil dan cir cua Tbu tudng Mohammed Mossadegh. Nam 1957, My cho rang che do Pahlavi dii tin tudng de cd the ciing Israel hgp thanh hai tru cdt cho chinh sach ddi ngoai cua My d Trung Ddng, nen da quyet dinh ciing cd cac ddng minh nay bang viec chuyen giao cdng nghe hat nhan trong khudn khd "Chuang trinh nguyen tir vi hda binh " ciia My. Nam 1973, cudc khiing hoang nang lugng da mang lai ngudn thu nhap Idm cho Iran, vdi ngudn tai chinh ddi dao cho phep Iran day manh chuong trinh hat nhan (Sau nam 1975, sd vdn dau tu cho ITnh vuc hat nhan len 1 ty USD). De thuc hien chuang trinh nay, Tehran hgp tae vdi Due, Phap, Thuy Dien vdi eac hgp ddng tri gia 10 ty USD de xay dung eac nha may dien nguyen tir. Kenh nhap khau urani dugc thiet lap vdi Uc va Nam Phi. Liic dd, chuang trinh hat nhan Iran phat triln tuomg ddi thuan lgi bdi chinh sach ngan chan s\r xam nhap ciia Lien Xd vao Trung Ddng Clia My. Cudc Cach mang Hdi giao (thang 2 nam 1979) da day quan he My Iran tir ddng minh chien lugc trd thanh ke thu. Chinh vi vay. chuang trinh hat nhan ma My img ho va giiip do Iran da trd thanh muc tieu de My ngan chan. Cac ddi tac cua Iran lan lugt riit khdi cac du an hat nhan cua nudc nay. Nam 1983, nha cam quyen Iran tuyen bd ndi lai chuang trinh hat nhan dang bi gian doan. Song Iran gap rat nhieu khd khan khi dd bdi cac cudc nem bom ciia Iraq vao cac CO sd bat nhan eua nudc nay. Mat khac, Iran cd qua it cac nha khoa hgc. De khac phuc tinh trang tren, Iran da giri hang ngan sinh vien ra nudc ngoai dao tao va khuyin khich cac nba khoa hgc cii trd vl. Ddng thdi, Iran tim kilm doi tac mdi - la Pakistan. Tir nam 1984, cac nha lanh dao hai nudc da tiln hanh thao luan xung quanh cdng nghe hat nhan va chuong trinh hat nhan cua Iran. Sau khi chiln tranh vdi Iraq kit thuc (1988), Iran lai tim kilm cac ddi tac khac dk tai khdi dong lai chuang trinh hat nhan, nhung chi cd Nga va Trung Qudc sin sang diu tu nhim tim Quda UlLung, luoAng, kal nliuti 3^an II kiem khdng ehi lgi nhuan kinh tl ma ca lgi ich chinh tri. Thang 3 nam 1990, van ban dau tien ve viec phuc hdi nha may dien nguyen tir Busbehr dugc ky ket vdi Lien Xd. Vi nhilu li do, mai tdi ngay 8/1/1995, hgp ddng chinh thiic giira Nga vdi Iran mdi dugc ky ket. Theo dd, Nga se xay dung cho Iran bai td may phat dien bat nlian nudc nang, cdng suat 915 MW, 2.000 tan uranium tu nhien va hang nam dao tao cho Iran 15 chuyen gia hat nhan. Tir nam 1991, Iran da cd hang loat hgp ddng mua urani, cac tbiet bi lam nudc nang tir Trung Qudc. Ngoai ra, Iran cdn tim each phat trien chuang trinh hat nhan cua minh thdng qua hgp tac bi mat vdi Trieu Tien. Trong hai nam 1993 - 1994, dai dien ciia •^ f Iran da thuc hien nhieu chuyen cdng du tdi Binh Nbuong. Trong cac thda thuan dat dugc, bai ben ddng y hgp tac va phat trien hat nhan va Iran se cung cap 500 trieu USD cbo qua trinb hgp tac dd' Trudc viec chinh quyen Tehran tiep tuc thai do thil dich ddi vdi My va theo dudi chuong trinh hat nhan, ngay 7/5/1995, Tdng thdng Bill Clinton da chinh thiie ky lenh "cdm van kinh te quan trgng, mdi" ddi vdi f Iran. Nam sau (ngay 5/8/1996), Qudc hdi My thdng qua dao luat trimg phat Iran va Libya (ILSA - Iran and Libya Sanction Act), theo f f dd My tuyen bd se phat bat ki edng ty nao diu tu tir 40 trieu USD trd len vao eae du an diu lira va khi ddt d Iran va Libya. ' TTXVN (2008), My cdo buoc hop tdc qudn su giira Bdc Triiu Tien vd Iran, TLTKTG. Tuy dimg trudc nhieu khd khan, song chuang trinh hat nhan ciia Iran van tilp tuc tien trien. Den cudi nhirng nam 1990, Iran da phat trien mang ludi tren dudi 20 co sd hat nhan nam pban tan tren khap lanh thd. Tir nam 1998, quan he hai nudc cd dau hieu dugc cai thien khi My chu truong binh thudng hda quan be vdi Iran. Thang 5/1998. My tuyen bd biiy bd lenh trirng phat doi vdi cac cdng ty nudc ngoai dau tu vao nganh nang lugng ciia Iran. Nhung vu khung bd 11/9/2001 vao nudc My da lam mdi quan be bai nudc tdi te them, khi muc tieu trong chinh sach ddi ngoai ciia My la chdng kbiing / ft bd qudc te, va bg ludn cao budc Iran dang ngam ngam ung ho cac td chiic khung bd chdng lai nudc My va bi mat phat trien vii khi bat nhan. 2. Khiing hoang hat nhan Iran (2001 2008) Van de hat nhan Iran ndi len khi ban bao cao (9/2001) ciia Co quan Tinh bao Trung uong My (CIA) td cao Iran sd hiru mot trong nhiing chuong trinh bat nhan de san xuat vii khi. Ngoai ra. My cdn cho rang Iran dang tim kiem cdng nghe lien quan den ten lira tir mdt sd nudc, trong dd cd Nga va Trung Qudc. Tir day, hat nhan trd thanh tam diem cang thang trong quan he giiia My va Iran. Cang thang gia tang khi My lien tiep cd nhirng tuyen bd the hien sir thii dich. Trong Thdng diep Lien bang ngay 29/1/2002, Tdng thdng My da xep Iraq, Iran va Bac Trieu Tien vao cai gpi la "true ma quy", la nhiing ke tbii kbdng "dpi trdi ehung" vdi My. Ngay 20/9/2002, chinh 12 NGHIEN CLfU CHAU AU EUROPEAN STUDIES REVIEW N°l 1 (134).20T 1 quyin Bush cdng bd Chien luge An ninh qudc gia mdi. Theo dd My tyr gianh lay quyen danh ddn pbii dau khdng khoan nhugng, khdng cham tre, d miic dg t^n khde nbat neu cd the, ke ca viec sir dung vu khi hat nban, cho dii ddi tugng chiu ddn pbii dau dd la cdc nhdm khimg bd, cac qudc gia ma My budc tdi la "bao trg khiing bo" cdc qudc gia "ddc tai" san xuat va tang trir vii khi giet f f ngudi hang loat hay bat ki cudng qudc nao, the lire nao dam thach thirc dia vj lanh dao the gidi cua My. Iran da nam vao tam ngam trong chien lugc danh ddn phu dau cua My. Thang 12/2002, My td cao Iran bi mat phat trien chuong trinh vii khi bat nban, va cdng bd cac biic anh ve tinh ve hai co sd bat nban dang dugc xay dung d Natanz va Arak. Nham giam bdt sir nghi ki va siic ep cua cdng ddng qudc te ve chuang trinh hat nhan ciia minh, ngay 11/3/2003, Iran da cbo phep gidi truyen thdng dugc tiep can, quan sat cac nha may dien hat nhan dau tien cua nudc nay dang trong qua trinh xay dimg tai tbi tran Busbehr d mien Nam. Trudc cudc khiing hoang hat nhan d Iran va sir that bai trong viec ngan cbSn cac hanh ddng dom phuang ciia My, de bao ve lgi ich cua minh ciing nhu nang cao vai trd ' f r cua minh trong eae mdi quan he qudc te trudc My, thang 8/2003, Dire, Anh, Phap (hay cdn ggi ia EU3) da de nghi Iran tien hanh dam phan ve chuang trinh hat nhan cua nude nay. Din thang 10 nam 2003, Due, Anh, Phap da ky vdi Iran mdt thda thuan, theo dd ap dung nghi dinh thu bd sung trong Hiep udc Khdng phd bien vii khi bat nhan (NPT), dong thdi cbo phep Ccs quan Nang lugng nguyen tir Quoc tl (IAEA) thuc hien cdc cugc thanh sat bat ngd tdi cac co sd hat nhan ciia nha nudc Hdi giao. Dieu dd cho thiy Iran muon thodt khdi cudc khimg hoang va tinh the bi cd lap. De chung td chuong trinb bat nban cua minh pbuc vu muc dicb dan su, lam an long cdng ddng qudc tc. ngay 18/12/2003. Iran chinh tbiic ky vdn kien bd sung Hiep dinh NPT. Qua dd, Iran da thuc hien thanh cdng ke hoan binb chien lugc. tranh mdt cupc chien tire tbi khdng can sire vdi My theo kith ban Iraq, cung nhu tir bd chuong trinh hat nhan vd dieu kien gidng Libya. Thdng 4/2004, cac nba lanh dao Iran de nghj thuang thuyet true tiep vdi My \e van de bat nhan, nhung de nghi nay ciing bi Tdng thdng My George W Bush tir chdi. De giam sire ep tir My, ngay 14/ir2004. Iran da ky hiep dinh vdi 3 nudc chau Au la Anh. Phap. Diic vdi ndi dung: Iran da chap nban ngirng tam thdi viec lam giau uranium \ i mudn mot hiep dinh ve lau dai se cd dugc nhirng cam ket ve van de an ninh. Vi cam kit nay bi Washington tir choi, nen Iran lai tilp tue chuang trinh lam giau uranium. f ^ Cudi nam 2004, My gap nhieu khd khan khi sa lay trong hai cudc chiln tranh Afghanistan va Iraq, trong khi hai nba cung cip hat nhan cho Iran la Trung Qudc va Nga xich lai gin nhau, hinh thanb thi ddi trpng mdi trong can can quyin lire toan ciu. Vi the ehinb tri duge cune co kliiln Iran canp them ^ju&4L khung, ftaa^tg, fiat nhatt '3¥€UL 13 eung ran, day cudc khung hoang hat nhan len miic nguy hilm. Thdng 2/2005, Tdng thdng Iran Mohammed Khatami tuyen bd Iran se khdng bao gid tir bd cdng nghe hat nhan vi muc dich bda binh. Nga ung hd Iran va ky thda thuan cung cap nang lugng cho Id phan ling d Busbehr. Trudc thdi do cung ran cua Iran, mdt lan nira My cdng khai len dn Iran va ddi thay ddi che dp. Nguyen Ngoai trudmg My CondoUeezza Rice ndi tai Qudc hdi My rang, nudc dd la mdt trong sdu "tien ddn eua nen chuyen che" ma My "mudn thay ddi che dp" (Cuba, Myanmar, Zimbabwe, Belarus, Bac Trieu Tien va Iran). Khdng chiu lui budc trudc My, ngay 15/5/2005, Qudc hdi Iran thdng qua "Luat Sir dung ky thuat bat nban cho muc dicb dan sir". Luat nay ddc tbiic chinh phu khdi ddng lai boat ddng' lam giau uranium, trao quyen cho chinh phu sir dung nang lugng hat nhan cho muc dich hda binh. Quylt tam theo dudi chuang trinh hat nhan cua Iran dugc nang len khi dng Mabmoud. Ahmadinejad, ngudi theo dudng ldi ciing ran r r f chdng phuang Tay gianh chien thang tai cudc biu cir Tdng thdng Iran vao thdng 6/2005. Ciing tir day quan he hai nudc budc vao giai doan eang thang mdi. Thdng 8/2005, Tdng thdng G.Bush dua ra tuyen bd dau tien trong hang loat tuyen bd ring. My se khdng loai trir kha nang tan cdng vii lire ddi vdi Iran khi eao huge Iran dang tim each phdt trien vu khi hat nhan. Ddp lai, Iran tuyen bd sdn sang nit khdi Hiep udc Khdng phd biln vQ khi hat nhan va se tir f r r bd tat ca cde cam ket lien quan den nang lugng hat nhan trong trudng hgp My tan cdng cdc muc tieu hat nhan ciia bp. Mdi quan be thii dich giira bai qudc gia tiep tuc dugc nang len d mirc cao, khi Tdng thdng My Bush md ta Iran la mdt ddi thii cdng khai tuyen bd "sir thii dich tuyet ddi'" vdi My: "Nhu Al Qaeda vd nhirng ke cue doan ddng Sunni, chinh quyen Iran ed nhirng muc tieu ro rdng. Hg mudn xua dudi My ra khdi viing ndy, tieu diet Israel vd thdng tri viing Trung Ddng md rgng Chinh quyen Iran vd nhitng ten dgi dien khung bd cua hg da the hien su sdn sdng giet ngudi My. vd gid day, Chinh quyen Iran dang ed gdng tim cdch ed duge vQ khi hgt nhdn " Ngay 11/4/2006, Tdng thdng Iran M. Ahmadinejad tuyen bd Iran da dat dugc budc phdt trien quan trpng trong chuang trinh phat trien cdng nghe hat nhan cua minh va "Gia nhdp edu lgc bg cdc nu&c ed cdng nghe hgt nhdn. Ddy Id ket qud cita su khdng eu cita Iran. Dua tren cdc quy dinh qudc te. ehiing tdi se tiep tuc eon du&ng eiia minh cho den khi ehiing tdi cd urani ldm gidu tren quy md cdng nghiep " Hon the nira, Iran canh bdo se f f ' cat diit cdc mdi quan be vdi IAEA neu nudc nay phai ehju them cdc lenh trimg phat ciia phucmg Tay. Ngay 8/5/2006, Tdng thdng Iran Mabmoud Ahmadinejad da giri mdt birc tbu dai 18 trang cho Tdng thdng G.Bush, de nghi tien hanh mdt cudc ddi thoai toan dien ve ^ TTXVN (2007), Chinh sdch Iran ciia chinh quyen Bush (phin I), TLTKCN. 14 NGHIEN cau CHAU AU EUROPEAN STUDIES REVIEW N°11 (134).20n mpi bat ddng giiia hai nude, bay td lap trudng cua Iran khdng chi thuang lugng vdi My ve van de chuang trinh hat nhan cua minh, ma cdn bao gdm ca tinh hinh khu vue Trung Ddng; Hay ndi rgng born, Iran muon thuong lugng vdi My vl moi quan he giiia the gidi Hdi gido va My. De nghi ndy ciing bi chinh quyen Bush bdc bd. Den lugt minh, ngdy 31/5/2006, Washington da de ngbj tbam gia true tiep vao cdc cudc dam phdn ve chuong trinh hat nban cua Iran cimg vdi cdc qudc gia chau Au vdi dieu kien Tehran phai ngimg ngay viec lam gidu urani. Day dugc coi la mdt thay ddi quan trpng trong chinh sdch ciia My ddi vdi Iran. Ngay ngay bdm sau (1/6/2006), Iran / n> f cho biet san sang ddi thoai vdi My, song lai tir chdi ngimg lam giau urani. Ngay 6/6/2006, cdc nudc My, Nga, Trung Qudc, Anh, Phdp, Diic da trao cho Iran mdt ban de nghi yeu cau Iran ngimg toan bd cdc boat ddng lam giau uranium de bat dau cac cudc thuang lugng thuc sir. Iran hoan nghenh va cho rang nhiing de nghi dd chiia dimg nhirng yeu td tieh cue, va thdng bdo se tra ldi chi tiet vao ngay 22/8/2006. Thdi ban tra ldi ma Iran dua ra chua bet thi ngay 31/7/2006, Hdi ddng Bao an Lien hgp f f \ qudc thdng qua Nghi quyet 1696, yeu cau f Iran ngimg tat ca mgi boat ddng lien quan den viec lam giau urani trudc. ngay 31/8, ddng thdi de dga se dp dung cdc bien phdp trimg phat ve kinh te va ngoai giao chdng lai nudc Cdng hda Hdi giao nay. Nhim gia tang sire ep vdi Iran, ngay 23/12/2006, Hdi ddng Bdo an tilp tue thong qua Nghi quylt 1737, yeu cau Iran ngimg ngay cdc boat dgng lam giau urani va thit chat cdc bien phdp trimg phat. EU da thuc thi nghi quylt nay bing cdcb phe chuan danh sdch cdc cd nban va td chirc lien quan den chuang trinh hat nban ciia Iran de pbong toa tai san. Dac biet, vdi Ngbj quyet nay, Iran bi cim van ddi vdi viec mua vii khi vd cdc nudc Idn ban che viec ban vii khi cho nudc nay. Nghi quyet thii bai de ra thai ban 60 ngay cbo Iran de ngimg lam giau uranium, neu khdng se bj trimg phat cimg ran hom trong Nghi quyet thu ba. Ngay lap tiic Iran cd hanh ddng trd diia vao ngdy 27/12/2006. Qudc hoi Iran ra quyet djnh ban che hgp tdc vdi IAEA, ddng thdi keu ggi Chinh pbii da\ nhanh chuong trinh hat nban. Trudc thai dp phdt la cua Iran, ngay 24/3/2007 mdt lan niia Hoi ddng Bao an Lien hgp qudc ra Nghi quyet 1747, md rdng lenh trimg phat \a dp dat lenh cam xuat khau vu khi ciia Iran. Khdng dimg lai d ldi ndi, chinh quyen Bush gia tang siic ep bing viec tang cudng lire lugng quan sir khi dua nhdm tau tin cdng ciia hai quan My do tau san bay Nimitz v Stennis dan dau den viing Vinh (vao cuoi thdng 3/2007), de dga lap lai kich ban Iraq. Tuy nhien, ban than ngudi My ciing khdng mudn diy tinh hinh vugt khdi tim kilm soat. Dl giam tinh trang ddi diu kbdng khoan nhugng vdi Iran, phdt bilu tai Vien Qudc te Hoang gia Anh ngay 2/5/2007. Thir trudng Ngoai giao My Nicholas Burns ndi ring My mudn "If ' - \Qud^ khungiiodng. hat.nhan 3^€LtL 15 ilran sau gan 30 nam bang gid, va hy vgng 5 tien trinh nay se bat dau trong tuan tai Hdi fnghi Thiic day hda binh tai Iraq. Ddp lai, thdng 6/2007, Iran ddng y ndi lai dam phdn va cbo phep IAEA thanh sdt cdc ca sd hat 1 nhan. Budc di nay khdng chi la nudc cd chien thuat nham tri hoan mdt lenh trimg phat mdi eua Hdi ddng Bdo an ciing nhu kha i nang My tan cdng ma mang thdng diep ve viec Iran cd the dimg lai tai ngudmg lam giau uranium dan sir. Khimg hoang leo thang vao 8/2007, khi IAEA cho biet han tiep tuc theo dudi boat ddng lam giau uranium tai nha mdy Natanz, vdi khoang 2.000 mdy ly tam boat ddng. Dau hieu mdt cudc dung dau quan su giiia phuomg Tay va han sap nd ra khi Ngoai trudng Phap 7 t Bemard Kouehner khang dinh: The gidi phai 7 tff "chuan bi cho mdt tinh hudng xau nhat" Trong khi dd, tai khda hpp thii 62 cua Dai Hdi ddng Lien hgp qudc ngay 25/9/2007 tai New York, Tdng thdng M.Ahmadinejad thdng bdo, nudc dng da dat dugc trinh dp san xuat nhien lieu pban bach cho muc dich hda binh d quy md cdng nghiep va tuyen bd chuong trinh hat nhan cua nudc nay la hoan todn hda binh va minh bach, cdn cdc bien phdp trimg phat cua Hdi ddng Bao an Lien hgp qudc la bat hgp phap. Cung ngay, Ha vien My thdng qua du luat xilt chat cac bien phdp trimg phat han bao gdm cim hgp tdc hat nhan dan su vdi cdc nudc ung hg Iran, khdi dgng cam van tai chmh toan ciu. Ddng thdi, Thugng vien My cQng xep luc lugng Ve binh Cach mang Hdi giao Iran vao danh sdch cac td cbiic khung bd, dgn dudng 7 f \ cho Tdng thdng G.Bush toan quyen phat lenh tin edng Iran. Ngay 2/10/2007, Tdng thdng G.Bush yeu eau Bg Qudc phdng tbu hep dien cdc mue tieu khdng kich d Iran neu nd ra chien tranh tir 2.000 xudng 1.200, tap trung vao cdc CO sd hat nhan va lire lugng Ve binh Cdch mang. Khdng chiu liii budc trudc My, ngay 29/9/2007, Qudc hdi Iran ra nghi quyet liet CIA va quan dpi My vao cdc td chirc kbiing bd. Song ben canh dd, Tehran lai cd ddng thai xudng nudc, khdng de dpa "lap day Iraq" mdi khi quan My nit di niia, ma td thien cbi tbam gia kenh ddi thoai My - Iraq - Iran ve van de an ninh fraq. Ngay 3/12/2007, Hdi ddng Tinh bdo qudc gia My da edng bd Bdo cdo Ddnh gid tinh bdo qudc gia, trong dd cho thay: Iran da ngimg chuong trinh phat trien vii khi hat nhan tir nam 2003 va cho den thdi diem giira nam 2007, chuang trinh nay van chua dugc tdi khdi ddng. Hien nay, Iran khdng cd via khi hat nhan cung nhu kbdng du kha nang edng nghe de san xuat pluton cho viec che tao vii khi hat nhan trudc nam 2015. Nhirng thdng tin duge dua ra chiing td nhiing cdo budc cua My ve tham vgng nguyen tir ciia Tehran da bi thdi phdng qud mirc. Lan dau tien sau 6 nam khimg hoang. My chu ddng "xudng thang", lam giam eang thang quan be giiia hai nudc. Ngay 6/1/2008, cand tuan tra ciia Iran r f f bat ngd tien sat cdc tau chien My dang di 16 NGHIEN cau CHAU AU EUROPEAN STUDIES REVIEW N°n (134).2011 chuyen trong eo bien Hormuz. Tuy nhien, neu de y ring Iran ehi cho cdc cand nhd khdng cd kha ndng tin cdng ra thdm dd, cdn phia My cbi gidi ban trong vi?c bdy td lo ngai ve khd ndng dung dp quan sir, thi cd the cho thay bai ben deu dang tim cdch "kiem che" de khdng mit the dien. Trong chuyen edng du 7 nude Trung Ddng sau dd, Tdng thdng My Bush da khdng de dpa chien tranh, ma chi keu ggi cdc nudc trong khu vuc ngan chan Iran. Trudc dd, phdt bieu tai Yazd ngay 3/1/2008, Gido cbii Iran Khamenei khang dinh, khdng loai trir kha nang ndi lai quan be vdi My, tuy vao thdi diem hien tai dieu nay ehua mang lai Igi ich cho Iran. Trudc thdi do thieu hgp tdc cua Iran, nham gia tang dp lire, ngay 3/3/2008, mdt cudc hpp dac biet eua Hdi ddng Bao an Lien r f hgp qudc da thdng qua Nghi quyet 1803, dp dung nhiing bien phdp trimg phat cirng ran hom do nudc nay tir chdi ngimg cde boat ddng hat nhan nhay cam ciia minh. Ngay sau dd, trong cudc hpp ngay 5/3/2008, Tdng thdng M.Ahmadinejad da khang djnh: "Iran f \ r se khdng thuang lugng v&i bdt ki ai ve vdn de hgt nhdn cua minh. Ke tir bdy gid vdn de hgt nhdn cita Iran chi dugc thdo ludn tgi IAEA vd ndm trong khudn khd cdc cam ket hai ben, ciing nhu Hiep u&c Khdng phd bien vU khi hgt nhdn (NPT) " Trude tinh the ngay eang bat lgi, Iran da chu ddng keu ggi ndi lai dam phan. Vao ngay 3/4/2008, Tdng thong Iran M.Ahmadinejad tuyen bd: Iran san sang tien hanh cdc cudc thuang lugng vdi cdc ben f f \ lien quan den van de nay. Ngay 14/6/2008, phuomg Tay yeu cdu Iran hgp tdc chat che vdi nhdm P5+1 (gdm 5 thanh vien thudng true cua Hdi ddng Bao an va Diic). Doi lai viec ngimg boat ddng lam giau uranium ciia Iran, cdc cudng quoc phuomg Tay thira nban quyen phdt trien boat ddng nghien cuu, sdn xuit va sir dung nang lugng hat nhan vi muc dicb bda binh. Iran van td rd quylt tam theo dudi chuong trinh hat nhan khi Tdng thdng M.Ahmadinejad tuyen bd khdng nhugng bd trong van de hat nhan ciia nudc minh bat chap phai bimg chiu them nhirng lenh trimg phat mdi. Ngay 16/9/2008, dng Herman Naeckerts, ngudi chi dao cdc cudc thanb sat ciia Co quan Nang lugng nguyen tir Qudc te IAEA o Trung Ddng, da cdng bd mdt sd tai lieu va anh cho thay Iran bi mat tim each che tao dau dan hat f f nhan. Cudi thdng 9, Lien hgp qudc ra mot nghj quyet mdi yeu cau Iran ngimg ngay lap tlic mgi boat ddng lam giau urani, nhung khdng dp dung them bien phdp trimg phat nao. Ngdy 19/11/2008, Iran tilp tuc phdt Id "menh lenh" ciia Hdi ddng Bao an va van pbong tda cudc dieu tra vl nhiing dau hieu lien quan den chuong trinb hat nban vi muc dich phi dan sir cua nudc nay ma IAEA da neu ra trong ban bdo cdo mdi trudc dd. Lap trudng cung rin cua Tdng thong G.Bush vl vin dl hat nhan Iran mgt lin niia dugc khang dinh trong cugc hgp bdo cuoi ciing trudc khi rdi Nha Tring TO/ig thing G.W. Bush tuyen bd, CHDCND Jrilu Tien va Iran " Mu&e. kliiuiq. kjoAnjg. ftat nhAit ^^IUL 17 ivay, khi rdi nhiem sd, Tdng thdng G.Bush I van ehua tim dugc giai phdp nao de cham I diit cudc khimg hoang hat nhan d Iran. Mdt i lan niia, Iran la van de de lai cbo Tdng thdng , ke tiep. 3. Thai do ciia Nga, EU xung quanh ' van de hat nhan o Iran 1. Thdi dp cda Nga Trong cdc cudng qudc tren the gidi, Nga . dang la nudc cd dnh hudmg va quan he than thien nhat tai khu vuc Trung Ddng. Nga khdng chi la ddi tdc tdt vdi ke thii cua My (Iran) ma vdi cd ban than ddng minh ciia My (Israel). Nudc Nga dang la cau ndi giiia phuang Ddng va phuomg Tay, la quan sdt vien cua Td chiic cdc nudc Hdi gido. Vi vay, Nga la nhan td quan trpng trong viec giai quylt vin de ndi com tai khu vuc, nhat la van dl hat nhan ciia Iran. Vi dia - chinh tri, han nam sdt bien gidi phia Nam, gin trung tam chien lugc cua Nga. Quan he Nga - Iran ciing i\liu quan he ddi ngoai cua Iran true tilp tdc ddng tdi toan cue dia - chiln lugc cua Nga. Nga dang bj My chen ep chiln lugc toan dien, bi bao vay chien lugc d phia Ddng lln phia Tay. Rieng d phia Nam, do han tdn tai chinh quyen chdng My, nen My khdng thi thuc thi kiem che chien luge ddi vdi Nga. Iran trd thanh qudc gia then chdt dl phdt triln dnh hudng cua Nga d Trung Ddng va ban chl anh hudng ciia cdc nudc khde d khu vuc nay. Ca Nga lan han cimg cd lgi ich ehung trong viec bao ve lgi ich d Trung A - Cdpcada va chdng lai su xam nhap cua phuang Tay de dga din lgi ich cua hai nudc. vi kinh ti, Nga ed nhiing Igi ich kinh te ldn d Iran. Nga cd quan be hgp tdc kinb te va ky thuat quan sir dac biet vdi Iran. Hai ben da ky kit nhilu hiep dinh quan trpng. viec Nga cung cip cdc loai vu khi hicn dai da gdp phin gia tang ddng ke tiem luc quan su cua Iran. Iran da soan thao chuong trinh hicn dai bda quan dpi trong vdng 25 nam chii yeu dua vao vii khi ciia Nga. Ca Nga va Iran deu coi nhau la ddi tdc thuong mai va dau tu quan trpng. Hai ben dang cd nhirng du an dau tu ldm. Cbi rieng nba mdy dien hat nban Busbehr da buy ddng din 300 doanh nghiep Nga va tao viec lam cbo bom 20.000 ngudi Trdnh canh tranh bit lgi, Nga va Iran da thda thuan phan chia thi trudng dau khi, theo dd phin ldn chau A la thi trudng ciia Iran, cdn Nga khai thdc thi trudng chau Au va tien tdi hai nudc se thilt lap mdt "OPEC" khi dot. Trong vdn de hgt nhdn Iran, Nga la nha dau tu nudc ngoai chii yeu, la nudc cd nhieu lgi ich khi tien hanh hgp tdc vdi Iran. Cbi rieng du dn hgp tdc vdi Iran trong viec xay dung nha mdy Busbehr da len tdi gan 1 ty USD, gdp phan dua nganh bat nban ciia nudc Nga thodt khdi khiing hoang sau khi Lien Xd sup dd. Nga bet siic coi trpng viec lgi dung hgp tdc hat nhan va hgp tdc quan sir de tao dung mdi quan he vdi Iran, hy vpng nhd "true da dia li" ciia Iran de chi pbdi tinh hinh chinh tri Trung Ddng, khdi phuc anh hudng nirde ldn trudc day tren the gidi. Thdng qua ^ TTXVN (2009), Chinh sdch cua Nga trong viec hgp tdc hgt nhdn v&i Iran, Tai lieu tham khao dac biet. 18 NGHIEN cau CHAU AU EUROPEAN STUDIES REVIEW N°11 (134).20n hgp tdc hat nban vdi Iran, Nga ed the tien them mdt budc lam tang khd ndng ddi dau giira My va Iran, ngan chan quan be My - Iran di den cbd de dpa lgi ich chien lugc cua Nga. Ddng thdi, van de hat nban ciia Iran lam cbo tinh binb Trung Ddng cang thang, gid dau the gidi tang Ien, Nga tu nhien dugc lgi khdng it. Vc phan minh, chinh pbii Nga van cho rang hicn kbdng cd bang chirng nao cho thay Iran dang tim each phdt tricn vu khi hat nlian. Tuy nhien, Nga ciing Io ngai chuong trinh hat nhan cua Iran phuc vu cbo muc dicb quan sir, do dd da tim cdcb dan xep cudc tranh chap hat nhan vdi nhiing de nghi thda hiep nhu de nghj nhan lai nhiing thanh nhien lieu hat nhan da qua sir dung ve Nga va ciing f vdi Iran lam giau urani tren dat Nga. Nga khdng the chap nhan cd them mdt nudc Idng gieng cd bom hat nhan. Thdng 9/2003, khi tra ldi phdng van hang truyen binh CNN, Tdng thdng Nga V.Putin ndi: "Phia Nam f f nu&c Nga xudt hien mgt qudc gia hgt nhdn m&i Id khdng phil hgp v&i lgi ich cita Nga " Muc tieu CO ban khi giai quyet van de hat nhan Iran cua Nga la vira ngan chan Iran cd vii khi bat nhan, ddng thdi ngan chan My thuc bien muu dd chinh trj kiem sodt Iran, tlic ngan can My bien chinh quyen Iran than Nga chdng My hien nay thanh chinh quyen than My, xa rdi Nga. Chinh vi vay, Nga da hgp tdc cd gidi ban vdi Lien hgp qudc trong f viec dua ra cdc lenh trirng phat ddi vdi Iran. 7 f Quan diem ciia Nga la khdng mudn cd them lenh trimg phat mdi. Nga ludn cd tinh tri hoan hoac chi chip nhan mdt phan trong cac dl xuit trimg phat Iran. Cudi cimg hg cung ddng y vdi mdt sd bien phdp trirng phat, nhung khdng bao gid dugc nhu y mudn ciia phuang Tay. Trudc kha nang My vd ddng minh co the sir dung vu lire chdng Iran. Nga luon phan doi giai phap dd, bdi vice pha bo nguyen trang d Iran se lam iha\ ddi linh hinh trong khu vuc, ddng cham den quyen Igi ciia Nga. Bd trudmg Ngoai giao Nga I. Ivanov d5 nban manh: "Nga hy vgng rdng nhirng yev sdch eua My ddi v&i Iran se khdng ddn ldi cugc xung dot gidng nhu a Iraq Cupc lap tran chung tren bien Caspi \ di Iran (7/2009), mang thdng diep ma Nga giri tdi My la Nga khdng dung thii cho bat ki kjch ban "thay doi che dp" nao nham vao Iran - thanh tri chdng My d khu vuc. Ngoai ra Nga cdn canh bao My, Israel va cdc nudc phuomg Tax su dung vii lire chdng Iran. Thuc tinh, vi lgi ich ciia minh, Nga khdng hy vgng cudc kbiing hoang hat nhan Iran sdm cham diit, it nhieu ky vpng My su dung vii lire ban che (chi tan cdng cac muc tieu hat nhan) ddi vdi Iran, khdng dan toi thay ddi che do. Song lgi ich ma xung dot kilu nay mang lai la rit ldn vi da loai bd kh^ nang san xuat bom nguyen tir cua Iran, tang them quan he ddi diu My Iran, lam phiic tap them tinh hinh Trung Ddng. Khi dd, ca My, phuomg Tay va Iran cin vai trd cua nuoc Nga va anh hudmg, vi thi ciia Nga dugc tang len. vl ca ban, Nga thuc bien chinh sach thuc dung, thdng qua vin dk hat nhan Iran de ^ude. kfiuiLQ. ^mAtijg, hat nhatt J4fan tim kiem lgi ich va tang cudng dja vi qudc te ciia minh. 2. Thdi dp cua EU EU va My cd muc tieu chung khdng de cbo Iran phdt trien vii khi hat nhan, xda bd mdi de dga hat nhan tilm tang nay. Vi vay, hai ben ludn cd sir phdi hgp va hgp tdc gan bd trong viec gidi quyet van de bat nhan Iran. Dau vay, hai ben van chua dat dugc thdng nhat hodn toan do nhiing toan tinh tir lgi ich chien lugc. EU da thua My trong viec ngan chan "vii khi giet ngudi bang loat" d Iraq, nay EU khdng mudn nhugng bd My trong van de Iran. Vi the, lanh dao nhd nudc Hdi gido dang tim cdch khai thdc su ran niit ve chinh sdch giiia Washington va EU. Lap trudmg cua Iran la lam suy yeu lien minh EU - My chdng Tehran. Ted Carpenter, nba phan tich chien lugc cua Vien Cato Washington cho biet, EU va My chi "thdng f \ f \ nhat ngoai mat" ve van de hat nhan cua Iran. Thuc bien chinh sdch chia re, Iran cbpn ddi tdc dam phdn la EU chir khdng pbdi la My. Khi dam phdn vdi Iran that bai, EU da dieu chinh chinh sdch dua vdo Lien hgp qudc, gay > f f \ y Siic ep vdi Iran nham giai quyet van de bang phuang phdp ngoai giao. Do chii truang cua EU tuomg ddi dn hda, thiet thuc va cho phep Iran sir dung nang lugng hat nhan tren miic do nhit dinh, nen Iran ludn sin sang md cua dam phdn vdi EU. Nhu vay. My va EU cd nhiing khde biet / f f \ tir cdcb tiep can va gidi quyet van de bat nhan cua Iran, khac biet dd bi chi phdi bdi ^ f bai toan lgi ich. My ludn de xuat "chia se gdnh nang" cbii chua de xuat chia se "lgi ich" vdi bat cii ai. mudn thdng qua khung hoang hat nhan de ldi keo cdng ddng qudc tc ung bd muc tieu ciia My. Cdi ma My Iheo dudi la loai bd che dp hien nay d Iran, xay dung mdt chinh quyen than My, tien tdi xay dung mdt "Trung Ddng md rdng" thiet lap sir thdng tri tuyet ddi ciia My, khdng che Nga, Trung Qudc lan cdc ddng minh ciia My. Dimg dau md va vj tri chien lugc ciia Trung Ddng de ep budc chau Au cd dau hieu "ddc lap", quay trd lai quy dao ciia My. Trong khi dd, EU ciing cam nhan dugc nhumg bat lgi neu de My mdt minh giai quyet van dc hai nhan Iran, bdi bp nban thay: Ve mat dia - chinh tri, Trung Ddng each xa My, nhung lai lien ke vdi chau Au. la sudn chien lugc. Id chan an ninh va "san sau" cdc bien ciia EU. Vdi anh budng hien nay cua Iran, neu khiing hoang hat nhan leo thang, Trung Ddng tiep tuc bat dn dan tdi thii ban dan tdc va tdn giao. xa hdi rdi ren. lan sdng di dan va tien cdng khimg bd. iryc liep anh hudng va tdc ddng tdi chau Au chir khdng phai la My. Ve kinh te, Trung Ddng vdi ngudn tai nguyen dau md pbong phu cd dnh hudng ldn tdi nen kinh te EU nhieu bom la ddi vdi My. "An ninh vd su phdn thinh ciia Tdy Au nha cdy nhieu vdo Trung Ddng, dgc biet Id tdi nguyen chien lucre ddu md ciia khu vuc ndy " So vdi My, nudc dugc da dang bda ngudn cung dau md, EU le thudc vao Trung Ddng nhieu ban, chilm 52%) lugng diu sir dung [...]... Idng dan chung N » ^ tao dieu kien lat dd chinh quyen bien nay d Iran Ve thuc chit, chinh quyin Bush quan tam trude hit din viec thay ddi cdcb "irng xu" cua cae nha lanh dao d Iran Cudc khiing hoang hat nhan Iran nd ra " TTXVN (2007), Vdn di hgt nhdn Iran vd vdn bdi lgi ich giUa cdc nuoc Ion, TLTK CN ' TTXVN (2009), Chinh sich cua My dii v6i Iran, TLTKDB gan nhu ddng thdi vdi cudc chiln chdng khung bd... loa Ki Iran Irong nua the ki Tap chi Chau M ngay T nay, so 3/2007 8 Do Trpng Quang, Chuang trinh hgi nhdn Iran vd cugc khung hoang quan he MJ - Iran, Tap chi Nghien ciru Chau Phi va Trung Ddng, sd 5/2008 9 Dang Xuan Thanb, Chieu cgnh hgt f f f nhdn trong quan he qudc te vd trd chai chien luge Mi - Iran, Tap cbi Nhumg van de kinh te va chinh tri the gidi, sd 3/2008 10 TTXVN (2007), Vdn di hgi nhdn Iran. .. ciia My ddi vdi Trung Ddng Chinh vi lgi ich vd cdch iing xir ciia cdc ben qud khde xa nhau, nen van de hat nhan Iran ngay cang trd nen nghiem trgng va khd tim dugc mdt ldi thodt de cdc ben "deu thang" Bai bgc ldm hoang bat nhan d quoc tl dd la niem tin tudng Ian nhau f nhat trong cudc khimg Iran ddi vdi cdng ddng tin Khi nao cdn thieu sir thi khdng cbi van de bat \ f f 21 nhiem ki ciia Tdng thdng Goerge... qudc khu vuc ciia Iran Ve phan minh, My da tir chd img ho Iran xay dung chuong trinb bat nban chuyen sang ngan edn nudc nay phdt trien chuong trinh bat nhan nham phuc vu cbo quyen lgi ciia minh d khu vuc Trudc nam 1979 My ludn giiip dd, iing hd Iran phdt trien chuang trinb hat nhan, tir ky thuat tdi cung img nguyen lieu Nbung sau nam 1979 My tim each ngdn chan chuong trinb bat nban cua Iran, bdi Washington... TTXVN (2007), Chinh sdch Iran ciia ehinh quyen Bush (phdn I) TLTKCN 12 TTXVN (2008), My edo budc hgp tdc qudn su giUa Bdc Trieu Tien vd Iran TLTKTG nhan ma mpi van de khde ciia qudc te se di vao bl tic, Ilic dd tinh trang bat dn ciia the gidi ngay cang tang, dieu ma khdng ai mong dgi TAI LIEU THAM KHAO 13 TTXVN (2009), Mudi vdn di ndi com xung quanh chuang Irinh hgt nhdn cua Iran, TLTKDB 1 Donette Murray,... Irinh hgt nhdn cua Iran, TLTKDB 1 Donette Murray, US foreign policy and Iran, Newyork, Routledge 2010 14 TTXVN (2009), Chinh sdch cita My ddi v&i Iran, TLTKDB f 2 Dinh Qiiy Do, Chinh sdch ciia Mi ddi vdi vdn di hgt nhdn Iran, Tap cbi Nhiing van dl kinh tl va chinh trj thi gidi, sd 8/2008 3 Gordon Corera, Budn Bom, NXB Van hda - Thdng tin Ha Ndi 2010 4 Nguyen Thai Yen Huong, Chinh sdch ddi ngogi cua... nban cua Iran, bdi Washington cdn cho rang Iran la trung tam ciia cdc phong trao Hdi gido chinh thdng, noi khdi ngudn cdc boat ddng chdng My cua thi gidi dao Hdi Ddng thdi, sir troi day ciia mdt Iran bat nhan cd thi gay ra mol cudc chay dua hat nhan trong khu vuc, de dpa true tiep Israel vd cac ddi tdc Arab ciia My Thdng qua van dk hat nhan, nlu chi phoi dugc Iran thi My cd thi giam manh tinh thc^n cua... hodng bat nhan hien nay ciia Iran la bet sire khd khan khi Igi ich ciia My va EU cd nhiing khde biet ldm EU van chu truang thuomg lugng de tim ldi thodt, pban ddi banh ddng chien tranh cua My 4 Ket luan Trudc chinh sdch kiem che ciia My, Iran dang thdng qua van de hat nhan dk phd bd the bao vay, cd lap va nang cao vj the trong khu vuc Cudc kbiing hoang hat nhan la co hdi tdt de Iran md rdng khdng gian sinh... Lien minh nay'* Hien vdi 27 nudc thanb vien, EU la ddi tdc kinb doanh ldn nhat cua Iran, ndm 2006 chiem tdi 27,8%) kim ngach budn bdn ciia nude nay^ 11' mat xd hgi, cdc nudc thanb vien EU cd ddng dan sd theo dao Hdi, trd thanb mdt lire lugng chinh trj kbdng the xem nhe Neu EU mdt muc theo dudi My trong van de hat nhan Iran, kbdng nhirng se lam mat di sir iing hd Clia dan chiing Hdi gido ddi vdi ehinb... Khi nhan thay My da sa lay trong bai cudc chien tranh Afghanistan va Iraq, dang can tdi vai trd cua nudc Idn d Trung Ddng, Iran da gia tang miic dp kbiing hoang nham tao dp lire vdi My, budc My phai xudng nudc Song vdi mau thuan lau dai, ciing nhu de bdo ve danh tieng, ca My vd Iran da khdng mudn tim mdt ldi thodt thuc sir trong khi dd cdc cudng qudc khde mudn thdng qua cudc khiing hodng nay de kiem . cao budc Iran dang ngam ngam ung ho cac td chiic khung bd chdng lai nudc My va bi mat phat trien vii khi bat nhan. 2. Khiing hoang hat nhan Iran (2001 2008) Van de hat nhan Iran ndi. dl hat nhan ciia Iran. Vi dia - chinh tri, han nam sdt bien gidi phia Nam, gin trung tam chien lugc cua Nga. Quan he Nga - Iran ciing iliu quan he ddi ngoai cua Iran true tilp tdc ddng. khi ddt d Iran va Libya. ' TTXVN (2008), My cdo buoc hop tdc qudn su giira Bdc Triiu Tien vd Iran, TLTKTG. Tuy dimg trudc nhieu khd khan, song chuang trinh hat nhan ciia Iran van