Post-Apartheid Patterns of Internal Migration in South Africa docx

Internal Migration Post-Apartheid Patterns of in South Africa Free download from www.hsrc p ress.ac.za Free download from www.hsrc p ress.ac.za PIETER KOK, MICHAEL O’DONOVAN, OUMAR BOUARE AND JOHAN VAN ZYL Internal Migration Post-Apartheid Patterns of in South Africa Free download from www.hsrc p ress.ac.za Compiled by the Integrated Rural and Regional Development Research Programme, Human Sciences Research Council Executive Director: Mike de Klerk Published by HSRC Publishers Private Bag X9182, Cape Town, 8000, South Africa www.hsrc.ac.za/publishing © 2003 Human Sciences Research Council First published 2003 All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilised in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publishers. ISBN 0-7969-2004-4 Cover photograph by David Lurie, first published in his book Life in the Liberated Zone, published in 1994. Production by comPress Printed by Print24.com Distributed in South Africa by Blue Weaver Marketing and Distribution P.O. Box 30370, Tokai, Cape Town, South Africa, 7966. Tel/Fax: (021) 701-7302, email: booksales@hsrc.ac.za Free download from www.hsrc p ress.ac.za Contents List of tables vii List of maps ix List of figures xi List of graphs xi About the authors xii Preface xiv Overview xvii 1. Introduction 1 Migration data generated by Census ’96 2 Context and scope of the study 2 Purpose of the book 4 Outline of the book 4 2. Literature review 8 Current status of migration research 8 Definitions 8 Data adequacy, reliability and appropriateness 11 Theories and models of the causes of migration 12 Economic factors that cause migration 13 Economic factors that perpetuate migration 18 Non-economic factors that cause migration 19 Non-economic factors that perpetuate migration 26 Evaluation 27 Modified gravity model of migration 28 Problems with ‘migration intervals’ 30 Local/area-specific data: guidelines for research 31 Conclusions 31 3. Population redistribution 33 Urbanisation trends 33 Metropolisation and inter-metropolitan migration 35 Free download from www.hsrc p ress.ac.za Multivariate statistical techniques used in this study 36 Inter-provincial migration 59 Patterns of inter-provincial migration 38 Multivariate profiles of inter-provincial migrants 38 Inter-district migration 40 Labour migration 41 Migration ‘proper’ 42 Summary of the effect of distance 48 Summarising the interactions between districts 49 Other examples of migration modelling 50 Conclusions 51 4. Migration differentials 52 Proportion of migrants in the population 53 Migration intervals compared: 1975–80 and 1992–96 54 Migration selectivity 55 Age-gender selectivity 55 Employment, education and gender differentials 57 Comparing ‘migrants’ and ‘labour migrants’ 61 Differential migration: a multivariate analysis 63 Conclusions 71 5. The way forward 75 Dealing with migration in future censuses 75 Migration questions in sample surveys 82 Conclusions 82 Appendices AInter-provincial migration: detailed MNA results 84 B Data and definition issues 92 C Information on the logistic regression 94 DModelling migration: further attempts 96 Index 111 Free download from www.hsrc p ress.ac.za List of Tables 2.1 A suggested (partial) typology of spatial mobility encom- passing both circulation and more ‘permanent’ moves, and incorporating the more flexible approaches to defining migration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 3.1 Migration to, between and from the four main metropoles and non-metropolitan areas in South Africa (1992–1996) . . . . . . . . . . . 36 3.2 Inter-provincial migration in South Africa (1992–1996): number of people involved in every migration direction . . . . . . . . . . . . 37 4.1 Age-specific comparison by province of the proportion of the population that has ever migrated. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53 4.2 Former migrants by population group (1975–1980 & 1992–1996) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55 4.3 Results of the logistic regression: Comparing ‘labour migration’ and ‘migration’. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61 4.4 Overall statistical results of the multiple classification analysis (MCA) of the probability of having ever migrated. . . . . . . . . . . 64 4.5 An MCA-based profile of the probability of having ever migrated: provincial location of the respondent . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65 4.6 An MCA-based profile of the probability of having ever migrated: type of locality . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66 4.7 An MCA-based profile of the probability of having ever migrated: population group. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66 4.8 An MCA-based profile of the probability of having ever migrated: gender . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66 4.9 An MCA-based profile of the probability of having ever migrated: age . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67 4.10 An MCA-based profile of the probability of having ever migrated: marital status . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67 4.11 An MCA-based profile of the probability of having ever migrated: highest educational qualification. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68 4.12 An MCA-based profile of the probability of having ever migrated: work status. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68 vii Free download from www.hsrc p ress.ac.za Page 4.13 An MCA-based profile of the probability of having ever migrated: annual household income. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69 4.14 An MCA-based profile of the probability of having ever migrated: household size . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69 4.15 An MCA-based profile of the probability of having ever migrated: dwelling type . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70 4.16 An MCA-based profile of the probability of having ever migrated: home-ownership by the household of the dwelling lived in . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70 5.1 Migration questions asked during Census 2001 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79 5.2 Suggested migration questions for future Censuses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81 A1 Destinations of inter-provincial migration in South Africa: Some statistical details of the explanatory variables used in the multivariate nominal-scale analysis (MNA) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84 A2 MNA results on inter-provincial migration destinations in South Africa: province of origin. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85 A3 MNA results on inter-provincial migration destinations in South Africa: type of locality (at destination) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86 A4 MNA results on inter-provincial migration destinations in South Africa: population group . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87 A5 MNA results on inter-provincial migration destinations in South Africa: migration period . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88 A6 MNA results on inter-provincial migration destinations in South Africa: age at (last) migration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89 A7 MNA results on inter-provincial migration destinations in South Africa: migrant worker status. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90 A8 MNA results on inter-provincial migration destinations in South Africa: gender. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91 C1 Variables (and their categories) used in the analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95 D1 Estimated coefficients of the model. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99 D2 Elasticities derived from the model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101 D3 Overall distribution of reasons for leaving the previous place of residence. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103 D4 Statistical details of a multivariate nominal-scale analysis (MNA): reasons for leaving previous place of residence . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104 D5 Reason categories for leaving previous place of residence: results of the multivariate nominal-scale analysis (MNA). . . . . . . . . . . . 105 viii Free download from www.hsrc p ress.ac.za List of maps 1.1 Location of provinces, districts and former homelands . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 1.2 Distribution of the population (1996): a district-based perspective . . . . 3 3.1 Usual districts of residence of labour migrants (1996) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40 3.2 Ratio of migrant workers to economically active population. . . . . . . . . . 42 3.3 District destinations of migrants (1992–96) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43 3.4 Origin districts of migrants (1992–96). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44 3.5 Origin districts of migrants to Gauteng (1992–96) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45 3.6 Usual districts of residence of Gauteng labour migrants (1992–96) . . . . 46 ix Free download from www.hsrc p ress.ac.za List of figures 2.1 (Extended) Value-expectancy-based model of migration decision-making . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 2.2 De Jong’s general model of migration decision-making. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 x Free download from www.hsrc p ress.ac.za [...]... that led to these analyses being undertaken was called ‘Causes of internal migration in South Africa It dealt with migration patterns within the country, and with the causes of both migration and non -migration This book was the first in a series of products arising from the project, which included an empirical survey 3 Post-apartheid patterns of internal migration in South Africa Free download from www.hsrcpress.ac.za... literature-based foundation for the study of internal migration in South Africa; provide a comprehensive overview of internal migration (based on recent census and other secondary data, mostly those provided by Statistics South Africa) ; introduce techniques and approaches that can be used to analyse data on internal migration; provide guidelines for questions on internal migration in future censuses and other surveys;... of questions, difficulties with the coding of origin data, and memory lapse (affecting mainly data on time of the move) The main aim of this book is to describe migration in South Africa, based on recent South African censuses and other national surveys, and to provide an analytical evaluation of the migration data that they generated Before Census ’96, South Africa lacked suitable census data on internal. .. book, includes all migrants, while ‘labour migration refers to a specific subset of migrants Outline of the book Chapter 2 provides a theoretical exposition of migration research and serves as a backdrop against which the remainder of this book should be viewed It explores the depth of our collective misunderstanding of internal migration in South Africa As indicated above, this misunderstanding can... initiation of migration and those explaining the persistence of migration across space and time Although the emphasis in their review is on international migration, there is no convincing reason why some (if not all) of these theories would not apply to internal migration Massey et al (1993) identify four theoretically derived causes of international migration: neo-classical economics, ‘new economics of migration ,... economics of migration ) is linked to community-level indicators The model describes outmigration as originating in communities ‘that are in the throes of economic development 17 Post-apartheid patterns of internal migration in South Africa Free download from www.hsrcpress.ac.za rather than in backward, stagnant areas disconnected from national and international markets’ Massey and Espinosa expected, for example,... providing the context within which migration takes place in a country Although there clearly are limits to the scope of the migration data that censuses can provide, sample surveys cannot be successful in providing the necessary insight into migration processes without reliable census data on internal migration patterns and trends Census ’96 opened up many opportunities for meaningful analyses of internal. .. 1.1) 5 Post-apartheid patterns of internal migration in South Africa Box 1 Migration questions asked during Census ’96 Free download from www.hsrcpress.ac.za Section A: In respect of each household member: 1.1 Was (the person) born in South Africa? (Include the former TBVC states – Transkei, Bophuthatswana, Venda, Ciskei) 1 = Yes 2 = No 1.2 (If ‘No’) In what country was the person born? Write in the... promoting international movement for profit, leading to a black market in migration (Massey et al., 1993:450) The institutional developments described by Massey and his co-authors are important in perpetuating international migration, and the institutionalisation becomes more and more independent of the factors that originally caused the migration This theory is clearly relevant in the case of international... certain about migration trends in South Africa Until now analyses based on a comprehensive profile of the total population have not been possible The emphasis has fallen on localised studies and/or on analyses of particular segments of the population, thus limiting the collective understanding of migration/ non -migration and the ability to generalise findings to the national or even provincial level In . inter-provincial migration destinations in South Africa: province of origin. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85 A3 MNA results on inter-provincial migration destinations in South Africa: . main metropoles and non-metropolitan areas in South Africa (1992–1996) . . . . . . . . . . . 36 3.2 Inter-provincial migration in South Africa (1992–1996): number of people involved in every migration. clear definitions of migration concepts and present a literature-based foundation for the study of internal migration in South Africa;  provide a comprehensive overview of internal migration