(TIỂU LUẬN) final examination subject foreign exchange

UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS HO CHI MINH CITY DEPARTMENT OF BANKING - - FINAL EXAMINATION SUBJECT: FOREIGN EXCHANGE Full name: Nguyen Thi Van Anh Student ID: 31191021088 Class ID: 21C1BAN50603203 Lecturers: Master Pham Khanh Duy December, 2021 TABLE OF CONTENTS PART 1: EUR/USD CURRENCY PAIR ANALYSIS 1 What is the exchange rate between the Euro and the United States Dollar (EUR/USD)? EUR/USD Influencing Factors When is the best time to trade EUR/USD? When is the best time to buy or sell EUR/USD? PART 2: REPORT METATRADER TRANSACTIONS .3 Trading on 8th December: Trading on 9th December: Trading on 10th December: Trading on 13th December: Trading on 14th December: Trading on 15th December: 10 Trading on 16th December: 11 PART 3: REFERENCES 14 Foreword: First and foremost, I would like to thank Master Pham Khanh Duy, lecturer in the foreign exchange department, for transmitting to me the basic information material as a basis for study, which is to trade in foreign exchange markets currency pair The report contains numerous flaws, and the analysis is insufficient, but it is still very useful information for me now and in the future Finally i'd like to thank the teacher once more PART 1: EUR/USD CURRENCY PAIR ANALYSIS What is the exchange rate between the Euro and the United States Dollar (EUR/USD)? The exchange rate of the Euro (the European Union's single currency) against the US dollar is known as EUR/USD (or €/$) This is also the two currencies' exchange rate (sometimes known as the cross rate, EUR/USD cross) On the Forex market, the EUR/USD pair shows how many US dollars (quote) are required to purchase one Euro (base currency) Because it is the currency rate of the world's two largest and most powerful economies, the EUR/USD pair is the most popular among traders EUR/USD Influencing Factors This pair is affected by the reported economic facts of these two countries because it is the exchange rate between the two currencies of the world's two largest economies  Factors affecting the EUR/USD exchange rate and the currency pair Leading indicators usually have a significant impact on the value of the Euro, generating volatility in the EUR/USD pair The following are some other indicators and factors that have a significant impact on the EUR:  Countries that are members of the European Union (and when the list is changed)  The European Central Bank's monetary policy (ECB)  Employment rate and new job creation  Budget deficits and public debt levels in European Union countries  Political policy in the bloc and in relation to the rest of the world  Economic growth in the bloc's member countries  Factors that influence the price of the US dollar and the currency pair Similarly, leading indicators in the United States have a significant impact on the USD value, generating changes in the EUR/USD exchange rate Aside from indicators, political, social, and local and foreign policies of the United States all have a significant impact on the USD price Among the most important metrics and policies are:  The rate of increase of the United States' gross domestic product (GDP)  Interest rates published by the Federal Reserve (Fed)  Total amount of money in circulation (Fed)  Unemployment rate  Trade Treaties, Tariffs, and International Duties  Payment account balance  The total national debt and annual budget deficit of the United States  Events at the White House  Consumption Savings Rate and Household Income  Social security and insurance coverage When is the best time to trade EUR/USD? The Forex market is open days a week, 24 hours a day However, the best time to trade the EUR/USD pair is between p.m and 11 p.m local time The European and American markets are both active during this time The market grew more active at that period, with more transactions This time frame has up to 25 pips of volatility (measured in pips) You can trade the EUR/USD pair at a little earlier time frame if you trade outside of this time frame (from 15:00 to 18:00, Vietnam time) The European session has barely begun, and volatility can reach 22 pips at this time Furthermore, the market moves differently depending on the day of the week Thursday is huge trade day, with the market being the most active (up to 90 pips), followed by Wednesday and Friday (up to 78 pips) Monday, on the other hand, is the market's quietest day (around 60 pips) This could be due to the fact that major indicators for both economies are frequently reported around the middle of the week 4 When is the best time to buy or sell EUR/USD? When a trader believes that the US economy will suffer (and hence the USD would depreciate), he or she will place a BUY EUR/USD order, anticipating that the EUR will rise in value In contrast, if they believe the US economy will strengthen and the Euro will weaken, they will now place a SELL EUR/USD order, anticipating a depreciation of the Euro PART 2: REPORT METATRADER TRANSACTIONS Name Type : van anh : Forex Hedged USD Server : MetaQuotes-Demo Login : 56270149 Password : wvk6boau Investor : uqxklfa2 NO Trading date Investing in currency pairs Profit / Loss 08/12/2021 EUR/USD P: 4.03 USD 09/12/2021 EUR/USD P: 120 USD 10/12/2021 EUR/USD P: 35 USD 13/12/2021 EUR/USD P: 60 USD 14/12/2021 GBP/USD P: 399 USD 15/12/2021 USD/JPY P: 43.94 USD 16/12/2021 EUR/USD - GBP/USD P: 51 USD P: 210 USD Total Trading on 8th December: Symbol: EUR/USD Profit: 922.97 USD ● Price: 1.13097 ● S/L: 1.11500 ● T/P: 1.13500 ● Volume: 0.01 lot ● Type: Buy ● Method of entry: Buy with the trend and the RSI technical indicator Actual situation analysis: In the early hours of Wednesday morning, the EUR/USD pair fell as investors reflected on the leadership transition in Germany as well as the rising number of infectious diseases It is currently trading at 1.1250, which is approximately 1.2 percent below its high point from last week Furthermore, the pair has suffered as the number of Covid-19 cases in important countries such as France and Germany has risen https://www.dailyforex.com/forex-technical-analysis/2021/12/eurusd-forexsignal-rebound-likely-despite-recent-selloff-december-8-2021/171775 Technical analysis: The H4 time frame shows that after the drop, there is a 3-white soldier candlestick pattern, which indicates that the currency may rise again in the near future While this is going on, the MACD indicator is indicating that the signal line is on an uptrend Create a buy order and position the stop loss and take profit near the previous resistance level Results of trading: profit taken at 1.13500, resulting in a profit of USD 4.03 (0.36 percent) Trading on 9th December: Symbol: EUR/USD ● Price: 1.13151 ● Volume: 0.5 lot ● Type: Sell ● Method of entry: Set a sell command on the market after conducting market research Actual situation analysis: The current reality has remained largely unchanged; the price mostly consolidated with low volatility over the course of the year The forex market has done little this week because the market is awaiting the release of two important data points: the CPI (inflation) data from the United States on Friday, and more information on the likely impact of the omicron coronavirus variant As a result, the price of this currency pair is likely to fluctuate only slightly today While the euro has been trading sideways and volatile for the past few days, there has been a bid in the currency, and it's possible that the short-term bearish retracement will end with a bullish bounce at the support level at $1.1301, which could make for an attractive trade opportunity should it be reached Source: https://www.dailyforex.com/forex-technical-analysis/2021/12/eurusd-forexsignal-consolidation-above-11301-december-9-2021/171874 Technical analysis: With regard to the H1 time frame, despite the current recovery efforts, the general trend line of the EUR/USD pair is still negative, prompting the placement of a sell order on the currency pair Results of trading: profit taken at 1.12911, resulting in a profit of USD 120 (0.21 percent) Trading on 10th December: Symbol: EUR/USD ● Price: 1.12705 ● Volume: lot ● S/L: 1.12690 ● T/P: 1.12740 ● Type: Buy ● Method of entry: Set a buy command on the market after conducting market research Actual situation analysis: The Euro has suffered a significant decline during the trading session on Thursday, wiping off the majority of the gains made on Wednesday The bottom of the previous downtrend channel, which we have seen offer resistance based on "market memory," indicates that this is a market that has been struggling in general Keep in mind that the European Central Bank continues to be very loose with its monetary policy, while the Federal Reserve is stepping away from tapering That in and of itself could but downward pressure on this pair, but if we get more of a “risk off attitude” around the world, that also drives up the value of the US dollar Source: https://www.dailyforex.com/forex-technical-analysis/2021/12/eur-usd-forecasteuro-pulls-back-from-previous-trendline-december-12-2021/171914 Results of trading: profit taken at 1.12740, resulting in a profit of USD 35 (0.03 percent) Trading on 13th December: Symbol: EUR/USD ● Price: 1.12850 ● S/L: 1.12690 ● T/P: 1.12910 ● Volume: lot ● Type: Buy ● Method of entry: Set a buy command on the market after conducting market research Actual situation analysis: The euro initially fell on Friday but turned around to recover again and reach towards 1.1350 level This is an area that will come into the picture noisily, as we have continued to rally and form a bit of an ascending triangle, but it is sitting just below a major trendline that had been part of the descending channel If we can break above the 1.14 level, then we may pick up a little bit of momentum, but until then I look at this as essentially the market going nowhere The euro initially dipped on Friday, but quickly recovered to reach a new high near the 1.1350 mark, before falling again So we need to purchase during the rising phase and take profits before the price enters the downturn phase Source: https://www.dailyforex.com/forex-technical-analysis/2021/12/eurusd-forecasteuro-recovers-late-in-the-day-december-13-2021/171956 Technical analysis: Using simply the MACD path and the RSI for the transaction in a short period of time, there is a good chance that the transaction will be successful Results of trading: profit taken at 1.12910, resulting in a profit of USD 60 (0.05 percent) Trading on 14th December: Symbol: GBP/USD ● Price: 1.32119 ● Volume: lot ● Type: Buy ● Method of entry: Set a buy command on the market after conducting market research Actual situation analysis: The new Omicron coronavirus strain has been identified as a reason to accelerate the introduction of so-called booster vaccines, a campaign that, according to dashboard data from the British government, is already almost as successful as the first, which was launched in early 2021 and was quite effective As a result, the value of the currency pair has increased This currency, like the others, had a significant boost at the start of the day As a result, it is worthwhile to purchase before the publication of average earnings, a change in British employment, and the domestic unemployment rate have an impact on the GBP/USD currency pair Source: https://www.dailyforex.com/forex-technical-analysis/2021/12/gbpusdtechnical-analysis-impacted-by-omicron-december-14-2021/172050 Technical analysis: Taking a look at the H1 frame, we can see the background pattern of three white soldiers that appeared after the previous session was dropped Future forecasts anticipate that the session trend will continue to rise in the foreseeable future Results of trading: profit taken at 1.32518, resulting in a profit of USD 399 (0.30 percent) Trading on 15th December: Symbol: USD/JPY ● Price: 113.825 ● Volume: lot ● Type: Sell ● Method of entry: Set a sell command on the market after conducting market research Actual situation analysis: The USD/JPY is attempting to launch itself toward the 114.20 resistance region in order to return to its bullish channel and avoid a recurrence of the previous breach of the bullish channel The pair is on the verge of hitting the 112.00 support level, which is critical in turning the overall trend downward Whatever the Federal Reserve's actions, selling the currency pair at every bullish level will continue to be the best strategy Technical analysis: Taking a look at the H1 time frame, despite the recent recovery efforts, the general trendline of the USD/JPY pair is still negative in the short run, resulting in a sell order being placed Results of trading: profit taken at 113.800, resulting in a profit of USD 43.94 (0.02 percent) Trading on 16th December: Symbol: EUR/USD ● Price: 1.13315 ● Volume: lot ● Type: Buy ● Method of entry: Set a buy command on the market after conducting market research Actual situation analysis: Proceed to buy the EUR/USD currency pair before the market moves, namely fluctuations: The European Central Bank is poised to announce a phased withdrawal from the extraordinary pandemic stimulus in the face of inflation, which is increasing in severity as a result of the omicron coronavirus variable, which is becoming increasingly prevalent Eurozone manufacturing and services PMI numbers will be released tomorrow, and their release will have an impact on the currency's performance The markets had already priced in the Federal Reserve's decision to end its asset purchase program and raise interest rates in the United States next year, which caused the EUR/USD to extend its losses to the 1.2221 support level before rebounding and settling around the 1.2290 level as of this morning Source: https://www.dailyforex.com/forex-technical-analysis/2021/12/eurusd-technicalanalysis-eyes-on-ecb-decision-december-16-2021/172173 Technical analysis: Given the time frame of the H1 candlestick, the Stoch indicator indicates that the currency pair is still in the bullish zone, and that it is necessary to purchase before entering the reversal signal frame Results of trading: profit taken at 1.13417, resulting in a profit of USD 51 (0.09 percent) Symbol: GBP/USD ● Price: 1.33504 ● Volume: lot ● Type: Buy ● Method of entry: Set a buy command on the market after conducting market research Actual situation analysis: The dollar sank in Asia on Thursday morning, as the US Federal Reserve tightened monetary policy Also on Thursday morning, the pound rose 0.8 percent against the dollar after the Bank of England lifted interest rates for the first time since the pandemic began The pound gained ground across the board after the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee voted 8/1 to raise the base rate from 0.1 percent to 0.25 percent The decision appeared to disappoint investors, who assumed that the UK central bank would reverse its decision to hike interest rates in the face of the new Omicron version of the rapidly spreading COVID-19 virus This caused some short selling in the GBP/USD pair, which coincided with the US dollar's selling tendency following the FOMC decision This demonstrates that, in the context of the Fed tightening fiscal policy, this is also a potential for a large increase in the pound when the Bank of England announces interest rates, boosting the pound's buying tendency Source: https://vn.investing.com/news/forex-news/ong-bang-tang-sau-khi-boe-tang-laisuat-de-kiem-che-lam-phat-1968052 https://www.fxstreet.com.vn/news/gbp-usd-tang-vot-len-muc-dinh-hang-thangvuot-cac-muc-giua-1-3300-sau-khi-boe-tang-lai-suat-ngan-hang-len-0-25202112161259 Technical analysis: Considering the H1 frame, the candlestick pattern indicates an uptrend, and the RSI is also in an upswing, which is also a sign of an uptrend The foregoing analysis indicates that the market's overall trend is upward, hence a Buy order was placed Results of trading: profit taken at 1.33714, resulting in a profit of USD 210 (0.16 percent) PART 3: REFERENCES https://www.dailyforex.com/forex-technical-analysis/2021/12/eurusd-forexsignal-rebound-likely-despite-recent-selloff-december-8-2021/171775 https://www.dailyforex.com/forex-technical-analysis/2021/12/eurusd-forexsignal-consolidation-above-11301-december-9-2021/171874 https://www.dailyforex.com/forex-technical-analysis/2021/12/eurusd-forexsignal-consolidation-above-11301-december-9-2021/171874 https://www.dailyforex.com/forex-technical-analysis/2021/12/eur-usd-forecasteuro-pulls-back-from-previous-trendline-december-12-2021/171914 https://www.dailyforex.com/forex-technical-analysis/2021/12/eurusd-forecasteuro-recovers-late-in-the-day-december-13-2021/171956 https://www.dailyforex.com/forex-technical-analysis/2021/12/gbpusdtechnical-analysis-impacted-by-omicron-december-14-2021/172050 https://www.dailyforex.com/forex-technical-analysis/2021/12/eurusd-technicalanalysis-eyes-on-ecb-decision-december-16-2021/172173 https://vn.investing.com/news/forex-news/ong-bang-tang-sau-khi-boe-tang-laisuat-de-kiem-che-lam-phat-1968052 https://www.fxstreet.com.vn/news/gbp-usd-tang-vot-len-muc-dinh-hang-thangvuot-cac-muc-giua-1-3300-sau-khi-boe-tang-lai-suat-ngan-hang-len-0-25202112161259 10 https://vnblog.mitrade.com/ngoai-hoi/dau-tu-forex/ty-gia-eur-usd-0527 PART PLAGIARISM CHECK RESULT ... Pham Khanh Duy, lecturer in the foreign exchange department, for transmitting to me the basic information material as a basis for study, which is to trade in foreign exchange markets currency pair... the future Finally i''d like to thank the teacher once more PART 1: EUR/USD CURRENCY PAIR ANALYSIS What is the exchange rate between the Euro and the United States Dollar (EUR/USD)? The exchange. .. of these two countries because it is the exchange rate between the two currencies of the world''s two largest economies  Factors affecting the EUR/USD exchange rate and the currency pair Leading