(TIỂU LUẬN) figure 3 types of rice vietnam export until 52021 (source snnptntdongthap 2021)

GROUP ASSIGNMENT Course Code ECON1269 Course Name International Trade Campus Hanoi Campus Lecturer Dr Long Do Students Tran Quynh Ngoc - s3636101 Nguyen Thanh Binh - s3695680 Nguyen Thi Thu Trang - s3749503 Words Count 1475 Part Contribution Tran Quynh Ngoc Question (C,D) Ngọc Nguyen Thanh Binh Question (A,B,C) Bình Nguyen Thi Thu Trang Question (A, B) Trang Question a) 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 1-10/2021 2,80 2,15 2,63 2,62 2,43 2,79 2,74 Table 1: Vietnam rice export data from 2015 - 10/2021 (billion US $) (Source: Trendeconomy n.d, Vietnamcustoms 2021) Figure 1: Types of rice Vietnam exports from 2017 - 2020 (Source: nongthonmoihatinh 2017) Figure 2: Types of rice Vietnam export 2020 (Source: Vietnambiz 2020) Figure 3: Types of rice Vietnam Export until 5/2021 (Source: snnptntdongthap 2021) 2015 China Philippines Indonesia Ghana Malaysia 2016 China Ghana Philippines Indonesia Malaysia 2017 China Philippines Ghana Malaysia Cote d’lvoire 2018 China Philippines Indonesia Ghana Malaysia 2019 Philippines Cote d’lvoire China Ghana Malaysia 2020 Philippines Trung Quốc Malaysia Ghana Cota d’lvoire 2021 Philippines Cuba Ghana China Table 2: Main countries importing Vietnamese rice (OEC n.d, Vietnambiz 2020, 2021) 2015 China Laos Thailand India Phillipines 2016 China Laos Thailand India Malaysia 2017 Laos China Thailand India Myanmar 2018 China South Korea Laos Myanmar Thailand 2019 China Myanmar United States Thailand Laos Table 3: Main countries Vietnam imports rice (OEC n.d) 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 1-7/2021 2,41 3,04 3,1 2,89 2,21 1,97 1,7 Table 4: Vietnam coffee export data from 2015 - 17/2021 (billion US $) (Source: Trendeconomy n.d, Asemconnectvietnam 2021) Figure 4: Types of Coffee Vietnam export 2018 Figure 5: Types of Coffee Vietnam export 2020/2021 (Vietnambiz 2021) 2015 Germany United States Spain Italy Japan 2016 Germany United States Spain Italy Japan 2017 Germany United States Spain Italy Japan 2018 Germany United States Spain Italy Japan 2019 Germany United States Spain Italy Japan 2020 Germany United States Spain Italy Japan Table 5: Main countries importing Vietnamese rice (OEC n.d, Vietnambiz 2020) 2015 Laos Indonesia China Brazil Ethiopia 2016 China Laos Indonesia Guinea Brazil 2017 Laos China Indonesia Hong Kong United States 2018 Laos China Indonesia United States Cote d’lvoire 2019 Laos Indonesia China Cote d’lvoire Brazil Table 6: Main countries Vietnam imports coffee (OEC n.d) According to the examination of marketing channels, the structure of the Vietnamese rice market is a multiplex connection that includes SOEs, farmers, millers, and dealers Because of the positive association between the parties, the volume of rice imported and exported has remained relatively consistent in recent years, even though world rice production continues to grow Rice exporters are under a tremendous deal of competitive pressure due to this Coffee in Vietnam, which has a good climate and soil, has grown steadily in output and area over the years The processing industry in Vietnam increasingly relies on Vietnamese coffee as a source of raw materials for both internal use and export The Vietnamese coffee industry is organized as an oligopoly since enterprises that can give similar tastes in coffee goods are few and far between in the country (Sloman, 2016) According to Nguyen (2020), the main thing that affects the rice and coffee market in Vietnam is how the country and other parts of the world trade Agreements like these can help Vietnam's GDP growth, but they also have drawbacks When Vietnam signs the arrangements, it will be bound by them and must follow international standards, even though Vietnam's laws don't meet the same standards as the agreements B) Figure 6: Employment in agriculture in Vietnam 2015 - 2019 (Source: The World Bank 2021) 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 24,4 28,8 32 35,8 40,78 43 Table 7: Wage in agriculture in Vietnam 2015 - 2021 (million Vietnam dong) (Source: GSO GOV 2021) Total Labour (L) = Lr + Lc The only two choices are coffee (C) and rice (R) The labor and capital involved in producing coffee are represented by Lc and Kc, whereas Lr and Kr represent the labor and capital involved in making rice Industry structure includes several topics, including the type and number of farms, types of products produced, processing methods and product categories, as well as operational data such as production area and yields as well as market prices as well as farm cash flow and cash flow forecasts for the coming year Inflation, coffee producers who transfer to other crops, aging plants with limited or no rejuvenation, blind farm methods, elderly farmers, limited access to assured investment assets, and restricted access to finance contribute to reducing productivity C) Vietnam will begin to import coffee since the country is open to free trade and because the world price of coffee is considerably lower than the price in Vietnam The cost of coffee in the domestic market will fall, resulting in an inward shift of demand from Pc*MPLc1 to Pc*PMLc2 Free trade reduces demand for Vietnamese coffee, and coffee employees cannot migrate to the rice business owing to a lack of particular skills Thus wages fall from w to w', and some coffee workers lose jobs W/Pc grows as Pc declines, allowing coffee workers to buy more coffee as Pc drops W stays the same; thus, rice workers are better off As a result, once the contract expires and cannot be renewed, coffee industry workers must accept a lesser income or become unemployed following Vietnamese legislation On the other hand, Rice employees will be better off as a result of the accords In my view, foreign workers should have their work licenses extended by the Vietnamese government, based on what I've learned Increasing the competitiveness of both domestic and international employees may be done from there To assist domestic employees improve their skills and raising their wages, it is crucial to increase the competitiveness of enterprises, which in turn may help businesses grow in particular industries Question A) In the past two years, the outbreak of Covid 19 has heavily affected the Vietnamese rice and coffee industry in various ways Due to the contagious pandemic, the coffee and rice supply chain is severely disrupted, from harvesting to producing and delivering As we can see from the table, when covid first took its toll on Vietnam in 2019, the export value witnessed a considerable fall in both industries The export turnover has been rising since then but still has not reached the desired level like before the pandemic as companies and production units can still not fully adapt to the “new normal” caused by Covid 19 Product Rice Export 2018 2019 2020 2.9 2.43 2.8 3.3 2.33 2.5 Value (in billion U.S dollars) Coffee Export Value (in billion U.S dollars) Table: Vietnam’s rice and coffee export value from 2018 to 2020 (Source: Vietnam’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development 2021) Many reasons led to the stagnant of Vietnam’s rice export market, but the most important one lies in the supply chain, which was negatively impacted by the pandemic Companies are having difficulty exporting rice to foreign partners due to the high transportation cost, the lack of empty containers, and extreme precautions against Covid 19 in international ports and border gates (Phan 2021) According to The Ministry of Agriculture 10 and Rural Development, more than 1.5 million hectares of rice in the Mekong Delta are ready for harvest, but there are no buyers This is because companies still have much rice in stock due to the sluggish export situation The coffee industry witnesses the same problems with the supply chain Despite the rising trend of coffee prices, companies in Vietnam still struggle because they can not export their products due to the shortage of containers and transport ships, together with strict travel regulations (Tran 2021) Furthermore, companies even have to carry other coffee reserves and labor costs making their financial burden bigger than ever (Van 2021) B) The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (RCEP) is a free trade agreement that covers various business aspects and helps reduce tariffs, implement trade regulations, and connect the supply chain of member countries (RCEP 2021) Vietnam will benefit significantly from the agreement, especially in agriculture, where many main export products were heavily affected by Covid 19 Besides the tariff reduction, RCEP also makes moving and selling products between member countries easier by simplifying import and export products and rules of origin This will lift the financial burden of many companies in the coffee and rice industry whose products were immovable due to the disruption in the supply chain caused by the pandemic (NhanDan 2021) However, these advantages are also applied to other members of the agreement Therefore, the increased competition means that companies must enormously improve their products’ quality and develop adequate knowledge of export markets to benefit from the agreement fully C) In the rice and coffee market in Vietnam, the streamlining of policy and procedures of RCEP, such as customs and rules of origin, will aid in the reduction of bureaucracy (Samuel 2021) Consequently, it empowers more small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) to join the market Recently, SMEs are 98% of all businesses in Vietnam, granting 40% of GDP (Asian Development Bank 2021) Accordingly, RCEP provides numerous chances for SMEs in the rice and coffee market in Vietnam to advance up the value chain Additionally, RCEP is excellent news for all investors in ASEAN, China, or other regions By regulating the origin of a product, RCEP rules of origin can be considered a boost 11 of a free trade agreement (Dollar 2020) Investing in numerous places will be easier with streamlined customs procedures, a consistent rule of origin, and increased market access The unified management of origin in RCEP might reduce costs for corporations with supply chains across Asia and motivate multinationals to all nations in RCEP (Dinh 2021) Therefore, the global value chain occupations within RCEP countries will grow It would be a paradise for commercial activities with no different and unconnected requirements for each nation (Crivelli 2021) Nonetheless, researchers have emphasized that when the RCEP is implemented, every business in Vietnam will give into great competition both domestically and internationally, including the rice and coffee market (Wilson 2019) D) According to the forecast of the Institute of Policy and Strategy for Agriculture and Rural Development of Vietnam, despite the Covid-19 pandemic, rice and coffee exports are predicted to expand significantly due to the increasing global demands and free trade agreements As the Vietnam Coffee-Cocoa Association stated, on condition that the export prices of coffee last as high as recently, it could bring billion $ annually (VNA 2021) Export activities in Vietnam generally and rice exports particularly, encountered numerous hard challenges and hurdles in 2020, majority owing to the exceedingly convoluted influence of the Covid-19 pandemic Facing these challenging circumstances, the Vietnamese government diligently executed various solutions to secure the prevention of Covid-19 or food security and detach the complication of export activities to assist people in consuming rice with the most acceptable quantity and price (Nguyen 2020) Moreover, since there are the difficult circumstances of the Covid-19 outbreak and its rapid spread throughout the world, which increases demand for food in many nations, Vietnam's rice exports have acquired several double opportunities There are also forecasts that the need for rice reserves in many countries would rise, particularly in important markets such as the Philippines, China, Ghana, or Papua New Guinea In the meantime, Vietnamese rice export competitors are presently facing numerous challenges (Do 2021) For example, India, because of the weakening Rupee and the Covid-19, leads to an extensive society crisis, damaging logistics Meanwhile, Vietnam controls the disease, and supplies are plentiful, creating good conditions 12 for increased rice exports In this situation, investors should instead invest in the rice industry in Vietnam 13 References ● ADB 2021, Report and Recommendation of the President to the Board of Directors, February, viewed December 2021, ● Crivelli, P 2021, Making RCEP Successful through Business Friendly Rules of Origin, Asian Development Blog, viewed December 2021, ● Dao 2020, Determinants of Vietnam’s rice and coffee exports: using stochastic frontier gravity model, viewed December 2021, ● Dinh, D 2021, Rules of Origin in RCEP Agreement: Advancement and Convergence, Volume 16, Issue 6, pp 248-255, ● Dollar, D 2021, What you should know about RCEP, Asia's new trade agreement, Brookings, viewed 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Vietnambiz 2020, Top 10 thị trường nhập cà phê Việt Nam nhiều tháng 2020, ● Vietnambiz 2021, Báo cáo thị trường cà phê quý 2012, ● Vietnambiz 2021, Báo cáo thị trường cà phê tháng 2021, ● Vietnambiz 2021, Báo cáo thị trường gạo quý 2021, ● VITIC 2021, Vietnam's coffee exports in first months of 2021, ASEM Connect Vietnam, August 09, viewed December 2021, 16 ● VNA 2021, Vietnam's coffee export predicted to grow higher, November 26, viewed December 2021, ● Wilson, J 2019, What's the deal about rules of origin in the RCEP negotiations, Perth USAsia Center, July 08, viewed December 2021, ● World Bank 2021, Employment in agriculture (% of total employment) (modeled ILO estimate) - Vietnam, January 29, viewed December 2021, - 17 18 ... 2020 (Source: nongthonmoihatinh 2017) Figure 2: Types of rice Vietnam export 2020 (Source: Vietnambiz 2020) Figure 3: Types of rice Vietnam Export until 5/2021 (Source: snnptntdongthap 2021). .. (billion US $) (Source: Trendeconomy n.d, Asemconnectvietnam 2021) Figure 4: Types of Coffee Vietnam export 2018 Figure 5: Types of Coffee Vietnam export 2020/2021 (Vietnambiz 2021) 2015 Germany... 2,80 2,15 2, 63 2,62 2, 43 2,79 2,74 Table 1: Vietnam rice export data from 2015 - 10/2021 (billion US $) (Source: Trendeconomy n.d, Vietnamcustoms 2021) Figure 1: Types of rice Vietnam exports from