An ninh nguồn nước lưu vực sông NILe cơ hội và thách thức

i^?^^?^;^!^^^^^ $^-(^•^1 i:?' hi AN NINH NGUON NlTdC L l / U Vy"C SONG N I L E : C O H O I VA THACH i m T C Pham Thi Kim Hue* N udc cd y nghia sdng cdn ddi vdi cupc sdng ngudi Trong nhiing ndm gan day, vide gia tdng dan sd ciing vdi su phat tridn kinh te xd hdi dd khidn nhu cdu -vg nudc cho sinh boat vd san xuat cdng gia tang cgng vdi la bidn ddi hau da, dang vd se tae ddng ddn nguon nudc vd tdi nguyen nudc cua cdc qudc gia tren the gidi ndi chung vd cua luu vuc sdng Nile ndi ridng Chua bao gid an ninh ngudn nudc lai trd thdnh van dd cap thidt nhu hidn nay, thu hut su quan tara cua tdt ca cac qudc gia, edc td chflc tren the gidi Viec nghign cuu an ninh ngudn nudc luu vuc sdng Nile se phdn ldn giup chung ta higu rd hon vd luu vuc ndy, vd tinh hinh sfl dung nguon nudc tai ddy cung nhu nhung co hgi vd thdeh thflc ddt vdi an ninh ngudn nudc Liru virc song Nile Bgc diim ttr nhiin ciia Liru virc sdng Nile Sdng Nile cd ten ggi bat ngudn tu tu "Neilos" tidng Hy Lap, cd nghTa la "ddng sdng thdn" xudt hien tu thdi Ai Cap cd dgi Theo tidng Phdp, ddng sdng cdn cd ten ggi la "Nil" vd dugc phidn am Id "Nin" Vdi nhieu ten ggi khdc nhau, song de tai se chi su dyng tdn ggi nhdt la "sdng Nile" Thac sT, Vi^n Nghifin ciiu Chau Phi v^ Trung Dong Sdng Nile Id sdng ddi nhdt trdn the gidi vgi chidu ddi Id 6.695 km', ddi hon sdng Amazon (6.437 km) vd la sdng cd dnh hudng nhdt d chau Phi Thupng ngudn song Nile gdm hai nhanh chinh: mpt la nhanh "Nile frang" chdy tu vung Hd Ldn d Rwanda vd hai la nhanh "Nile xanh" chay tu vung nui Ethiopia, sau dd hgp luu tai Khartoum - thu dd Sudan, rdi chdy qua Ai Cap va Dia Trung Hdi Tren thuc td, chidu ddi sdng Nile de cd thd tau be qua lgi Id 4.149 km^ vdi luu lugng nudc tdi tao hdng nam khoang 80 ty m"^ (Hinh 1) Luu vuc sdng rgng 3.176.543 km^, chidm 1/10 didn tich chdu Phi, tu vT -4° nam ddn 31" bac va tfl kinh 24" ddng ddn 40° ddng, trdi rgng lanh thd 11 qudc gia d DdngBdc Phi gdm: Rwanda, Burundi, Tanzania, Congo, Uganda, Kenya, Ethiopia, Erifrea, Nam Sudan, Sudan, Ai Cap Trong dd, qudc gia cd dien tich luu virc sdng Nile ldn nhdt la Sudan vdi hon tridu km^, chidm 44% tdng dien tfch luu virc song Nile, tidp theo la Nam Sudan vdi didn tich luu vuc sdng Nile la 620.626 km^ chidm 19,5% tong dien tich luu vuc sdng Nile Dung thfl ba la Ethiopia cd dien tich luu vuc sdng Nile la 365.318 km^, chiem 11,5% va xdp thu tu la Ai Cap vdi dien tich luu vuc song Nile la 302.452 km^ chidm 9,5% tdng didn tich luu vuc song Nile Tgp chi nghiin cau CHAU PHI & TRUNG DONG SO 12 (112) thang 12/2014 An ninh nguon nfldc, Pham Thj Kim Hue Hinh 1: Lun vuc sdng Nile Nguon: http://exploringafrica matrix, msu edu Bang 1: Dien tich ciia cac qudc gia Imi virc song Nile Ty le dien tich liru vuc Ty le dien tich liru vwc Dien tich luru Dien tich so voi dien tieh lanh so vtfi tong dien tich luu vuc song Nile lanh tho thi (%) vuc song Nile (%) _ (Kmi ' (Km') ; _ " 74,9" " ' J " 44,0 1.396.230 J.864.049^ 1^ d ^ _ 97 J^ ' 19,5 620^626 _635.150_ Nam Sudan 31,9 _LT44.035^ l^LS "'" Ethiopia 365.318 996.'960 303 |_AiJI]ap • "'302.452" 9,5 _"241.24S[ j Uganda _ _ i _240.067 ' 7,6 J 933.566 ' Tanzan la 12,7 IJ Vis.s'b? 593.116_ Kenya 1,6" 51.363 " 121.722 , Eritrea i \% 25^97'""" 21,1 ^.40l!94T CHDC Congo7^ \ 21.796 "" oj 28.062 Burundi 49,4 13.860 0,4' Tong cong 3.176.543 Nguon: Tong hap lir Global Administratiw Unit Layer (GAUL): Projected GCS-WaS-I984-UTMZom 36N So vdi cac luu vyc sdng khac fren the gidi thi luu vyc sdng Nile rat da dang ve mat hau, tai nguyen nudc phan phoi khdng ddng deu va luu luong ddng chay tuang ddi nhd so vdi kich thudc cua liru vyc Ca hai nhanh Nile frang va Nile xanh deu bat ngudn chay tir nhirng vimg tuong ddi am ucit, vcii luong mua dao ddng hang nam khoang 1.200-2.000 mm, cdn lai hau hit cac phan ciia luu vuc sdng Nile nam viing ban khd cin, cd nai lupng mua rit it khoang 100 mm moi nam Cu the, thuang ngudn nhanh Nile trang chay qua qudc gia la: Rwanda, Burundi, CHDC Congo, Tanzania, Uganda, Kenya, Nam Sudan thudc cao nguyen Congo vdi cao trung binh khoang 1.700m so vdi mue nudc bien Khi hau ndng am va khd, gan luu vyc sdng thi mat me, nhiet dp khoang 2830°C vao miia khd va 22-24°C vao miia mua Tai khu vyc nay, miia raua bit diu tir thang den thang 11 va miia khd tir thang 12 dSn thang nam sau vdi lupng mua kha ldn Tgp cItinghien ciru CHAU PHI & TRUNG DONG so 12 (112) thang 12/2014 An ninh nguon nfldc, Pham Thj Kim Hue khoang tu 1.000 mm ddn 1.200 mm Trong dd, thugng nguon nhdnh Nile xanh tfl cao nguyen Ethiopia vd Eritrea vdi dp cao trung binh khoang 2.000 m ddn 2.200 m so vdi mat nudc bien Khi hdu dn ddi, mat me tren cao nguyen vdi nhidt dp trung binh khodng 1525°C, cdn vimg dat thap cd hdu ndng khd thugc vung hdu ban sa mac Mua Idn tu giua thdng ddn gifta thang 9, cdn tu thang den thdng cd nhiing mua nhd khoang thdng tu ddu thdng gid mua tu phia nam mang den Chinh vi vdy, lugng raua trung binh tai Sudan khd it, khoang 161 mm Ha luu sdng Nile chay qua Ai Cap Mac du dien tich luu vuc sdng Nile cua Ai Cap chi chidra 1/3 tdng didn tich ldnh thd, song thung lung sdng Nile vd ddng bang sdng Nile Id nhung khu vuc cd y nghia sdng cdn ddi vdi Ai Cap vd la noi hinh thdnh rapt Trung nguon sdng Nile la qudc gia Sudan, nhung ndn van mmh sdm nhdt cua nai hgp luu cua hai nhdnh Nile trdng vd Nile nhdn loai - ngn vdn minh sdng Nile rue rd xanh Tfl thang gidng ddn thdng chiu cdch ddy hang nghin nam Lugng mua tai Ai anh hudng bdi gid khd tfl phia bdc ngn khu Cap kha thdp, khoang 80 rara vao mua he vd vuc khdng cd mua Mua ldn keo ddi 200 rara vao mua ddng Bang 2: Lirpng mira trung binh nam 2009 cua cac qudc gia luu vuc song Nile I Quoc I iii !! Lucmg mua Kenya CHDC Congo 1.260 1.245 Uganda Ethiopia Burundi Rwanda Eritrea 1.140 1.125 1.110 1.105 520 Nam Sudan Sudan 500 ' 161 Ai Ca£ 150 ii trung „ binh (mm) _ _._ J J_ Ngudn: Tieu ludn Qudn ly Tdng hap Luv virc song Nile, Ldp cao hoc Qudn ly moi trudng khda 2012, Khoa Mdi trirdng, Tnrdng Dgi hoc Bdch khoa Tp Ho Chi Minh Gdp phdn hinh ddng chay cua sdng Nile khdng thd khong ke den cdc hd luu vuc sdng Nile nhu: ho Victoria, hd Kyoga, hd Albert, hd Tana, ho Edward vd hd Nasser , dd ndi tieng nhdt la hd Victoria Day la hd Idn nhdt chdu Phi vd la hd nudc nggt ldn thfl hai tren the gidi vdi dien tich 67.000 km^, d cao 1.134 m so vdi rauc nudc bien vd dp sau nhdt dat 82 m Hd Victoria cung cdp ngudn nudc chinh cho nhanh Nile trang Cac nudc ciing dugc hudng Igi tu ho Victoria bao gdm cd Kenya, Uganda vd Tanzania Thu hai la hd Albert ndm gifta bien gidi hai nudc Uganda vd CHDC Congo, vdi dien tich Id 5.374 km^, d dp eao 619 m so vdi mue nudc bien Nudc tfl hd Victoria chdy den hd Albert roi vdo Nam Sudan hinh ddng chdy cho nhdnh Nile frdng Thu ba Id hd Tana ndm d cao nguygn Ethiopia vdi cao 1.786 m so vol mue nudc bidn cd dien tich la 3.156 km^ vd dp sau nhdt la 14m, tao thdnh ddng chay cho nhdnh Nile xanh vdi luu lugng ddng chdy trung binh dat 3.732 trieu m^ (Rientjes et al 2011) Cudi cung phdi ke ddn la hd Nasser d ngudn luu vuc sdng Nile vdi dien tich 5.168 km^, d cao 175 m so vdi mue nudc bien vdi luu lugng ddng chay la 121,3 km^ Day la hd nhan tao dugc hinh viec xdy dung ddp cao Aswan tao vd dugc dat ten theo nhd Ianh dao Ai Cap Nasser - ngudi da chi dgo xdy dung dap Khi hdu vd dja hinh phuc tap dd tao cho luu vuc sdng Nile mgt he thdng sinh thai vd cung da dang Ven cdc ho va dam ldy dgc hai ben bd sdng Nile mgc rdt nhidu cdy say (Papyrut) va vdo mua thu nhugm dd bdi hoa sen Ngudi Ai Cap cd dai tu xa xua da bidt dflng vd cay Tgp chi nghien ciru CHAU PHI & TRUNG BONG SO 12 (112) thang 12/2014 |g An ninh nguon nfldc Pham Thi Kim Hue say dg chd tao giay vidt Nhung trang gidy vidt ndy cdn dugc luu gift tgi cac bdo tang eho ddn nay, vd nhd ma chung ta cd thd higu vg mdt thdi lich su huy hodng cung nhu nhiing thdnh tuu y khoa va van hda vT dai cua nen van minh Ai Cap cd dai loai ddng vat nhu dch, rua, rua can, cay Mangut dd cd hai loai dgng vat phd bidn ciia sdng Nile Id ca sdu va hd rad Ngoai lodi ca nhu cd ddi ddu det, cd ban va ca Perch Dac trung nhdt Id cd Perch sdng Nile Chau thd sdng Nile cdn la noi trfl ddng cd ldp vdy mdu bac dnh xanh la mgt cfla hdng tram nghin chim nudc nhu lodi nhung loai ca sdng khdng Id bdi chigu dai mdng bign nhd, nhan xdm, didc xam, choi cua nd cd thd len tdi 1,8 m vd ndng hon 227 choi cd khoang, cdc, vit md thia, didc bach kg vd cdn Id mpt nhung ngudn cung va cd qudm Khdng chi cd vdy, ddng bdng cdp thuc pham quan trpng ddi vdi dan cu sdng Nile cdn Id ncri sinh sdng cua rat nhidu sdng d luu vuc song Nile Bang 3: Mpt so chi s6 quan trgng cua cac qudc gia luu vuc song Nile Ty le dan s6 Co mirc thu nhap dudi mirc ngheo PPP' 1,25 USD/ngay (2002-2011) Lam phat nam 2012' HDI nam 2012' Al C0P GNI binh quan dau nguai nam 2012'(USD) 5.401 1,7 8,5 Kenya 1.541 43,4 9,4'" 0.662 (112)* 0.519 Tanzania 1.383 67,9 16 Uganda 1.168 51,5 14,6' Rwanda 1.147 63,2 6,2 Sudan 1.848 - Ethiopia 1.017 39,0 20,5 Burundi 544 81,3 "i"8",2' chi so tham nhung nam 2012* (%) 3,2 eM!*^ (NJJ* 'fs'is ' Eritrea 531 - 12,3 CHDC Congo Nam Sudan**» 319 87,7 2,7 - - 0.476 ^ CSV 0.456 (161)* 0.434 (167)* 0.414 (171)* 0,396 (173)* 0,355 (178)* 0,351 (1812* 0,304 ' 2,7 (139)" 3,5 (102)** _, 2,9 (130)** 5,3 (SO)** 1,3 3,3 (113)** 1,9 (165)** 2,5 -J'SPI'^ iim* _ 2,1 (160)** Chti thich: * Xep thir hang ve HDI so vdi 186 quoc gia tren thi gidi ;•* Xip thir hang vl chi so tham nhung so voi 174 quoc gia tren the gioi; ' " N a m Sudan chua co so lieu vi la quic gia non tre nhit chau Phi va tren the gidi, mdi tuyen bo doc lap vao ngiy 9/7/2011 sau tach khoi Sudan Ngudn: long hop tir 2014 African Economic Outloolq OECD 2014 Ma Human Development Report 2013 Die diem liinh te - xa hgi cda liru vuc song Nile ,,., , J, , Mac du l u u j y c song Nile la Imi vue quan trgng nhat chau Phi vai nhieu tiem nang to ldn, song nhin chung cac qudc gia luu vyc sdng Nile, trir Ai Cap, diu la cac quoc gia kem va dang phat triln vdi GNI binh quan diu ngudi nam 2012 thupc lo?i thap cua thi gidi (Bang 3), co Tgp chi nghien cuu CHAU PHI & TRtiNG BONG so 12 (112) thang 12/2014 Pham Thj Kim Hue An ninh nguon nu'dc CHDC Congo thudc dien nudc tren thi gidi cd ty le dan so sdng d mirc ciing cue ngheo khd ddng nhat^ va eiing la qudc gia cd ty le dan sl cd miic thu nhap dudi mirc ngheo khd ldn nhit s l eac qudc gia luu vuc sdng Nile (87,7%) Trong nam 2012, lam phat cua mgt sd qudc gia luu vuc sdng Nile tuong ddi cao d mdc hai sd nhu: Sudan la 35,5%; Ethiopia: 20,5%; Burundi: 18,2%; Tanzania: 16%; Uganda: 14,6% va Eritrea: 12,3% Ty le lam phat cao la mdt nhung nhan td khien cho nen kinh tl cua cac qude gia luu vyc sdng Nile phat trien khdng ben vihig Luu vyc sdng Nile la nai sinh sdng ciia 238 trieu ngudi ttong tdng dan sd 437 trieu ngudi ciia II qudc gia luu vyc sdng Nile, chilm ty le 54%' Trong dd, hon 80% dan sd ciia cac qudc gia nhu: Ai Cap, Rwanda, Nam Sudan, Sudan, Uganda sinh sdng chu yeu ven bd sdng Nile (Bang 4) Bang 4: Dan so ciia cac quoc gia liru virc song Nile _ Burundi CHDC Congo AiC Eritrea j^thiopia_ Kenya Rwanda Dan so nam 2012 i.749.387 69.575.394 83.958.369 "'5'.580.862 86.538.534 Ty le dan so song luu ^ Ty le dan so cii nuo'C \ song 6'_yung nong thon vuc song Nile nam 2012 " 58,8% 3,8% 95,7% '37,6%'" 40,3% 39,7% 82,6% 99,0% _ ; _JZ r '""i ' 89% 66% " ' 57%""" 79% 83% 76% "81%' | J ' I '"'" 67% _ ' 7'3"% 21,5% "'9'9',4% 84% Nguon: Landscan 2009 va World Population Prospects 2010, World Urbanization Prospects 2010 Tanzania Uganda 47.656.367^ "35.620.977 ' Ngoai nhimg phd ldn dupc hinh va phat trien dpc hai ben bd sdng Nile nhu: Kigali - thu dd cua Rwanda vdi dan sd 1,004 trieu ngudi (2011)'°; Kampala - thu dd cua Uganda vdi dan sd 1,659 trieu ngudi (2011)"; Entebbe - thu dd dau tien cua Uganda; Jinja - phd cua Uganda vdi dan sd la 491.000 ngudi'^; Mwanza - phd cua Tanzania vdi dan sd la 635.730 ngudi (2011)'^; Kisumu - phd ldn thir ba cua Kenya vdi dan sd la 968.909 ngudi (2011)'"; Juba - thii dd Nam Sudan vdi dan sl la 372.410 ngudi (20II)"; Khartoum thu dd Sudan vdi dan sd la 4,632 trieu ngudi (2011)"; Wad Madani - phi ciia Sudan vdi dan sd la 332.752 ngudi"; Addis Abada - thu dd Ethiopia vdi dan sd la 3,633 mpt trieu ngudi (2011)'^; Luxor nhthig phd cd kinh cua Ai Cap vdi dan sd 422.407 ngudi (2011)", Cairo - thu dd Ai Cap va la phd ldn nhat chau Phi vdi dan sd 9,120 trieu ngudi (2011)^° Cdn lai nhin chung gan 60% dan sd cua cac qudc gia luu vuc sdng Nile sdng d cac vung ndng thdn va phu thudc nhieu vao ndng nghiep, diln hinh nhu Burundi vdi 89% dan sd sdng d ndng thdn; Uganda 84%; Ethiopia 83% Trong 11 qudc gia luu vyc sdng Nile thi cd den 10 qudc gia trir Ai Cap cd chi sd phat triln ngudi thupc dien thip nhit thi gidi Dung thli hang cudi ciing la CHDC Congo vdi chi sd HDI la 0,304 xip thii 186/186, tilp theo la Eritrea vdi ehi s l HDI la 0,351 xip thu 181/186, Burundi: 0,355 xip thir 178/186; Ethiopia: 0,396 xip thir 173/186; Sudan: 0,414 xip thii 171/186 Tham nhung la can benh kinh nien ctia chau Phi, kim ham su phat triln cua ca luc dja den va cac quoc gia luu vuc sdng Nile Tgp chi nghien ciru CHAU PHI & TRUNG DONG so 12 (112) thing 12/2014 An ninh nguon nu'dc Pham Thj Kim Hue cung khdng ngoai le Sudan la qudc gia cd dien tich lim vyc sdng Nile ldn nhit vdi ngudn tai nguyen thien nhien dli dao, song lai la mdt hai qudc gia tham nhiing nhit thi gidi xip thir hang 173/174 CHDC Congo, Burundi, Eritrea, Kenya, Uganda tham chi ca Ai Cap cimg bi xip loai cac qudc gia tham nhiing nhilu tren thi gidi Ben canh dd, luu vyc sdng Nile cdn la mdt nhimg khu vyc bat dn nhat ciia chau Phi, xdy hang loat cac cudc xung dot chinh tri, sic tdc tdn giao nghiem trpng Ching han, cudc chien keo dai sudt 30 nam Eritrea cl ging gianh dgc lap khdi Ethiopia va nghiem trgng hon la cudc chien bien gidi giiia Eritrea va Ethiopia tu thang 8/1998 din 6/2000 da khiln 100.000 ngudi chit va hang tram trieu dd la da lang phi dd vao viec mua ban va phat trien vii Hay cugc chiln keg dai hang thap nien ke tir Sudan gianh ddc lap tir ngudi Anh vao nam 1956 giita phe chinh phu mien Bac ngudi gic Arab chiem da sd va nhihig ngudi da den theo Kitd giao va cac tin ngucmg ban dia d mi§n Nam Cudc chien da khien khoang trieu ngudi bi chet va 2,7 trieu ngudi huge phai rdi bd que huong di ti nan hoac lanh nan d cac nudc ldng gieng Sau nhieu nam giao tranh, den 9/7/2011 Nam Sudan da tach khdi Sudan de trd qudc gia ddc lap non tre nhat tren the gidi The gidi khdng the quen cudc xung dot sac tdc tai khu vyc Darfur thudc mien Tay Sudan giira lyc lugng dan quan gdc Arab chinh phii hau thuin va nhting ngudi da den ban dia diln tit thang nam 2003 din nay, da cudp di sinh mang cua hon 70.000 ngudi va budc khoang 1,8 trieu ngudi phai di di tan Nghiem trgng nhat la cugc chiln hai sic tdc Hutu va Tutsi xay d thu Rwanda chuyen co cua Tdng thing Rwanda- mgt ngudi Hutu bi bin rcri Mdt cupc tham sat dam mau chi diln vdng 100 bit diu tir 7/4/1994 da lam 800.000 ngudi Tutsi dn hda va mpt sl it ngudi Hutu bi gilt va khiln khoang 95.000 tre em bi ml cdi cha me va khoang 2.000 phu nit bj nhiim HIV bi ham hilp Day dupc coi la mpt nhihig nan diet chung kinh hoang nhat mpi thdi dai K I tit gianh dupc dpc lap, CHDC Congo dudng nhu chiu sir tan pha ciia cac cupc xung dot lien mien Tir nam 1998 din nam 2003 la cudc chiln Congo lin thir hai hay cdn dupc bilt din vdi ten gpi khac la cupc chiln thi gidi d chau Phi Trong nhimg nam qua, luc lupng phien quan M23 cimg vdi cac nhdm vd trang khae da lien tiep dung dp vdi cac lyc lupng quan dpi qudc gia eua CHDC Congo tai khu vyc mien Ddng va da lam hon 100.000 ngudi mit nha cira, 2,6 trieu ngudi phai di cu va 6,4 trieu ngudi can hd trp khin cip va hd trp luong thyc Hay gin day nhit, 30/12/2013, hang loat cac vu tan cdng vao dai truyen hinh, san bay va doanh trai quan dpi da xay tai thii Kinshasa cua CHDC Congo khien giao thdng tai day bi te liet hoan toan Ai CSp qudc gia d luu sdng Nile thdi gian vira qua cung da phai trai qua bien dpng chinh tri xa hdi Mua xuan Arab, khien dit nudc Kim Ty Thap rai vao tinh trang bat on Bieu tinh, bao loan, xung ddt tdn giao lien tilp xay d thu dd Cairo va mpt sd phd ldn khac cua Ai Cap Cd the ndi rang cac dac diem tu nhien cfing nhu kinh te - xa hdi eua eac qudc gia Itm vuc sdng Nile cd anh hudng true tilp va gian tilp den ngudn nudc lim vyc sdng Nile An ninh ngudn nudc luu vyc sdng Nile cd dupc bao dam hay khdng phu thudc rit nhilu vao nl lyc cua cac qudc gia luu vyc sdng Nile Thuc trgng sir dung nguon nu&c liru vuc song Nile Nhu da dl cap d tren, sdng Nile la sdng dai nhit tren thi gidi vdi dien tich luu Tgp cili nghien cuu CHAU PHI & TRUNG DONG SO 12 (112) thang 12/2014 An ninh nguon nfldc Pham Thj Kim Hue vuc rdng hon trieu km , song luu lugng ddng chdy frung binh hang ndm chi hon 80 ty m^, nhd hon nhieu so vdi luu lugng ddng chdy trung binh hdng ndm cfla sdng Congo - mdt sdng khdc ciia chdu Phi (khoang 1.300 ty m^) Sdng Nile bdt ngudn tu hai nhanh thugng ngudn Nhanh Nile xanh cung cdp khodng 8090% luu lugng ddng chdy cho song Nile nhung phu thugc Idn vao mua vd cd dp bdi ldng cao, ngugc lgi nhanh Nile frdng chi cung cdp khodng 10-20% luu lugng ddng ehay cho sdng Nile song tuong ddi dn dinh va it bdi ldng Phdn ldn luu vuc sdng Nile ndm frong vung bdn khd cdn vd khd cdn ndn ngudn nudc bi that thoat Idn bi bay hoi d nhung viing dam lay, sa mac va bi trft lai d cac hd nhdn tgo nhu hd Nasser, Jebel el Aulia Trong sd cdc qudc gia luu vuc sdng Nile thi CHDC Congo la qudc gia cd ngudn nudc cd thd tdi tao ldn nhat, dat 900 ty m^ vdo ndm 2009 vi quoc gia cdn cd sdng Congo chay qua, song lai la mgt nhung qudc gia luu vuc sdng Nile kem vd khd ndng du trft nudc, vdi mflc du trft nudc binh qudn ddu Bang : Ngudn nirdc, sir dung va Nguon nuo'C Tong nguon Tdng nguon nudc CO the nuac (ty mVnam) tai tao (ty 2000-2010 mVnam) 2009 „ ^, ngudi nam 2012 la m^ Thu hai Id Ethiopia vdi ngudn nudc cd the tdi tao ndm 2009 la 122 ty m^ vi cd hd Tana tao ddng chdy chinh cho nhdnh Nile xanh Viec xdy dung hdng loat dap thuy dien ciing phan ndo giup ddt nudc d vung Sung chdu Phi du trft dugc 67ra^/ngudivao nam 2012 Mac du tdng ngudn nudc cd the tai tao cua Tanzania va Uganda khong nhieu bang Ethiopia va CHDC Congo, song nhd lgi the Id cdc quoc gia d thugng ngudn nhanh Nile frdng va cung chia sd ngudn nuoc tfl hd nudc ngpt ldn thu hai frdn the gidi Id hd Victoria ndn ca Tanzania vd Uganda ed lugng du trft nudc binh qudn ddu ngudi ldn nhat frong 11 qudc gia luu vuc sdng Nile (Tanzania la 2.324 m^/ ngudi vd Uganda la 2.392 m^/ ngudi) Ndra ngudn sdng Nile, Ai Cap cd tdng nguon nudc cd the tdi tao thdp nhdt frong cae qudc gia luu vuc sdng Nile, chi dat 1,8 ty m^ vao nam 2009 nhung nhd xdy dung dap cao Aswan da giflp Ai Cap tdng khd nang du trft nudc len ddn 2.073 m^/ngudi dd ddp ung nhu cdu sfl dung vd phdt tridn kinh te ciia ddt nudc dir trir nirdc ciia cac quoc gia lini virc song Nile Sir dung Diitrii' % tren long mdc nudc tai tao thuc te giai doan 2000-2010 % tren tong mirc nudc sir dyng tir song Nile giai doan 2000-2010 0,2% 0,5% % nudc sd dung cho nong nghi?p giai do^in 2000-2010 Kha ngng du trit nudc cua cac d$p (m^ diu ngudi) Burundi 10,1 0,29 2,9% 77,1% 900,0 0,1% CHDC 0,62 17,7% Congo 1,8 3.794,4% 56,5% 68,3 Ai Cap 86,4% 2.073 2,8' 20,8% 0,5% 94,5% 0,58 Eritrea 4,6% 4,6% 5,56 122,0 Ethiopia 93,6% 67 ,_Kenya 20,7 13,2% 23% 2,74 79,2% 611 Rwanda 9,5 1,6% 0,1% 0,15 68,0% Nam Sudan* 30,0 37,14 123,8% 30,7% 97,1% Sudan** 200 5,18 4,3% 89,4% 84,0 6,2% Tanzania 2.324 0,32 0,3% 37,8% 39,0 0,8% Uganda 2.392 Chu thich: *: Nam Sudan chua cd sd !i?u bdi vi mdl tach khdi Sudan va lgp qudc gia mdi vdo 9/7/2011; **: Bao gdm so U^ucuacaNam Sudan NguSn: FAO AQUASTAT2012 Tgp chi nghien cO-u CHAU PHI & TRUNG DONG SO 12 (112) thang 12/2014 An ninh nguon nUdc Pham Thi Kim Hue Theo sd lieu thdng kd cua FAO Phdn Idn ddn so cua cac quoc gia luu vuc AQUASTAT 2012, Ai Cap la qudc gia su sdng Nile sdng d cdc viing ndng thdn vd phy dung lugng nudc ldn nhdt sd cac qudc thugc nhidu vao ndng nghiep, chinh vi vdy ty gia luu vuc sdng Nile giai doan tu nam Id nudc su dung cho ndng nghidp cua cde 2000 ddn ndra 2010 vdi lugng nudc sfl dung qudc gia luu vuc sdng Nile chigm ty Id kha hdng ndm Id 68,3 ty mVndm, dd ty Id cao Dign hinh nhu Sudan, Eritrea vd nudc su dung tfl sdng Nile chiem 56,5% Ethiopia su dung hon 90% nuoc cho ndng Thfl hai la Sudan - qudc gia d trung ngudn nghigp (Bdng 5); Tanzania vdi ty Id nudc sfl sdng Nile cd thu Khartoum Id nai hgp luu dung cho nong nghiep chiem 89,4%, Ai Cap: cua hai nhanh Nile trdng va Nile xanh vdi 86,4%, Kenya: 79,2%, Burundi: 77,1% va lugng nudc su dung giai dogn 2000- Rwanda: 68,0% Trong 5.419.000 dien 2010 la 37,14 ty mVndm, dd 30,7% tich ddt dugc tudi tidu ciia Ai Cap nam 2009 nudc sfl dung duge Idy tfl sdng Nile thi ban Vz dien tich dat luu vuc sdng Nile Ethiopia xgp thfl ba vd tdng rauc nudc sfl (2.963.581 ha) dugc tudi tidu Cd dugc di$n dung binh qudn nam giai doan 2000-2010 Id tich tudi tigu rgng nhu vay la Ai Cap da 5,56 ty m'^/nam vd ehi cd 4,6% nude sfl dung cdi tgo he thong thuy Igi de dua nudc tu sdng duge lay tfl sdng Nile Kenya cung la qudc Nile tudi tieu cho cdc didn tich ddt ndng gia cd ty Ie nudc su dung Idy tu sdng Nile nghiep cua minh Qudc gia cd dien tich ddt tuong ddi eao (23%) so vdi cac qudc gia luu luu vuc sdng Nile dugc tudi tieu Idn thfl hai vuc sdng Nile khdc mac du tong rauc nudc frong sd cdc qudc gia luu vuc sdng Nile la su dung trung binh ndm cua qudc gia Ddng Sudan vdi dien tich dat luu vuc song dugc Phi khdng nhidu chi d rauc 2,74 ty hidi tidu Id 1.749.300 Xdp thfl ba Id m^/ndra Cdn lgi cdc qudc gia luu vuc sdng Tanzania: 110.544 va thfl tu id Ethiopia: Nile khdc giai doan 2000-2010 tdng 90.769 ba Dien tich ddt luu vuc dugc tudi mflc nudc su dung binh qudn ndm khdng tidu cua cdc quoc gia cdn lai lire vuc nhigu vd ty le nuoc sfl dung ldy tu sdng Nile song Nile khdng nhidu chi khoang tren 10.000 ddn dudi 40.000 cung khdng ldn Iam Bang 6: Ty le dan s6 tilp can ngudn nudc sach cua cac qudc gia luu vuc song Nile (2008) T y jle da so tiep can nguon nirdc sach Ty e dan Nonff thon Do Ihi •71% 83%'" 28% _8b% 98% 100% " 57% 74% 26% 52% "6'2"%" "" 77% 53% 67% 64% 80% 91% 64% Burundi r CHDC Congo AiCap Eritrea Ethiopia Kenya Rwanda Nam Sudan Sudan Tanzania Uganda Nguon: WHO/UNICEF 2010 Ben canh dd, ty le dan sd dupc tilp can ngudn nudc sach cua Ai Cap chilm ty le cao nhat nam 2008, 100% dan sd thj va 98%i dan sd ndng thdn ciia Ai C$p - Tgp chi ngliien cuu CHAU PHI & TRUNG DONG SO 12 (112) thang 12/2014 Pham Thi Kim Hue An ninh nguon nLrdc cd CO hdi dugc sfl dung nudc sach Dai da sd dan thi cua Ethiopia (98%) vd CHDC Congo (80%) dugc tiep cap ngudn nudc sach song chi cd mdt ty le rdt nhd ngudi ddn ndng thdn cua hai qudc gia ndy dugc tidp can ngudn nudc sach Ngugc lgi, ty le dan sd ndng thdn cua Uganda vd Tanzania dugc tigp can ngudn nudc sach tuong ddi cao ty Id dan sd dd thi dugc tidp can ngudn nudc sach cua hai nudc lai rdt khiem tdn (Bdng 6) Khdng the phu nhdn tdm quan trgng cua sdng Nile ddi vdi eac qudc gia luu vuc sdng Nile, Ai Cap - qudc gia d luu sdng Nile Id qudc gia sfl dung ngudn nudc tfl sdng Nile nhidu nhat de phat trien kinh te xa hgi Nhd ngudn nudc sdng Nile khdng chi giup nen nong nghidp cua cac qudc gia luu virc sdng Nile phdt trien md cdn tao co hgi cho eac cu ddn ed ca hgi dugc tidp can ngudn nudc sgch An ninh ngudn nudc luu vuc song Nile: Off hoi va thach thuc Ccf hoi: Thir nhdt, an ninh ngudn nudc luu vuc sdng Nile gdp phdn bdo dam an ninh Iuong thuc cua cdc qudc gia ven sdng Luu vuc sdng Nile cd he thdng sinh thai dgng thuc vdt vd cung phong phfl, la mdi trudng sdng ciia hang nghln loai chim, ca, dgng vat, cd nhung lodi quy hidm nhu cd Perch loai ca nudc nggt khdng 16 Ddy Id ngudn thuc phdm quan trgng nudi sdng dai bg phgn dan cu ven sdng Nile Hon thd nfta, didn tich dat canh tac cua cac quoc gia sdng Nile dugc tudi tieu phu thugc nhidu vdo ngudn nudc sdng Nile, chdng han nhu Ai Cap cd 2.963.58 luu vuc sdng Nile dugc tudi tieu; Sudan cung cd ddn hon 1.749.300 luu vuc sdng Nile dugc tudi tidu; dien tich ddt luu vuc sdng Nile cua Tanzania duoc tudi tidu la 110.544 Hon 80% dan sd cua cdc qudc gia ven song Nile nhu Uganda (99,4%), Nam Sudan (99,0%), Ai Cap (95,7%), Sudan (87,3%), Rwanda (82,6%) phu thugc vao ngudn nudc song Nile, dd ngdnh ndng nghidp eua Ai Cap phu thugc hoan toan vdo sdng ndy vd sir tru phu cua ddng bang sdng Nile da tao ndn mdt nhftng ndn van minh sdm nhdt cua nhan logi Do vdy ed thd ndi rdng, ndu khdng cd ngudn nudc sdng Nile thi Ai Cap chi cdn Id mgt sa mac rgng ldn Hay ndi each khac, tinh frang mdt an ninh ngudn nudc luu vuc sdng Nile se khien ddt dai bi khd cdn, sa mgc hda dan ddn mat mua va ddi ngheo cua cdc qudc gia luu vuc sdng Nile gia tdng Thu hai, an ninh ngudn nudc song Nile tao CO hgi bdo ddm an ninh ndng lugng Thuc td, sdn xudt didn binh qudn dau ngudi cua tat cd cdc qudc gia ven sdng Nile trfl Ai Cap rdt thdp, dd qudc gia luu vuc song Nile cd mflc san xudt didn binh qudn ddu ngudi thdp hon 100 kWh/ngudi/nam bao gdm: Rwanda, Burundi, Ethiopia, Erifrea, Uganda, Tanzania, thap hon nhidu so vdi mflc binh quan cua thd gidi: 2.752 kWh vdo nam 2007 Chi tru Ai Cap vdi 100% ddn sd thi dugc sfl dung dien cdn lgi cdc qudc gia lim vuc song Nile, ty Id ddn sd thi dugc su dung dien khdng cao Didn den dugc cdc viing ndng thdn cua cdc quoc gia Iim vuc sdng Nile rdt hiem, vdi ty Id rat nhd dudi 10% Viec thidu dien lam cdn trd ddn qua trinh cdng nghidp hda, giara gia tri gia tang ddi vdi cac sdn phdm nong nghiep ndi rieng va kim hdm su phat tridn kinh td - xa hgi cua cdc quoc gia luu virc sdng Nile ndi chung Trong dd, tidm nang thuy dien cua cac qudc gia lim virc sdng Nile vugt 20 GW, rat khd quan, song hidn tai mdi chi khai thdc dugc 26% tidm ndng thuy dien ndy Cu thd, Ethiopia la qudc gia cd tidm nang thuy dien ldn nhdt sd cdc qudc gia luu vuc sdng Nile voi Tgp chi nghien cuu CHAU PHI & TRUNG DONG SO 12 (112) thang 12/2014 An ninh nguon nu'dc Pham Thi Kim Hue tilm nang thuy dien cd thi khai thac dat Ethiopia tham vpng trd nude xuat 13.947 MW; thu hai la Uganda vdi tiem khiu dien ldn nhat va kilm soat nang lugng nang thuy dien ciing kha cao dat 4.343 d khu vyc Ddng Phi Cd thi ndi ring an MW , day diu la cac qudc gia d thuang ninh ngudn nudc cting chinh la an ninh ngudn sdng Nile nhu: Ethiopia - qudc gia d nang lupng khdng chi cua cac qudc gia thugng ngudn nhanh Nile xanh va Uganda - thugng nguon sdng Nile ma cdn ciia cac quic gia d thuang ngudn nhanh Nile trSng qudc gia trung nguon va ngudn sdng Nile Trong tucmg lai, nhd tilm nang thuy dien nhu Sudan, Nam Sudan va Ai Cap Bang 7: Mirc san xuit tilu thu dien va tilm nang thiiy dien cua cac quoc gia Imi vuc song Nile " " • " Buon b an dien Ty 1? xuat Ty le nhap khau di^n khau dien so vdi so vdi tong miic tong mue tieu thu tieu thu dien hang dien hang nam nam 0,0% "" o,'o% 9,8% 11,2% San xuat tieu thu E)ien Ty le dan Ty le dan San xuat so nong so thi dien nam thon dugc duoc sir 2007 su d^ng dung dien (kWh) dien 2010 2010 26% 25 Burundi 141 45% CHDC Congo 100% 1.661 Ai Cap 57%, 64 Eritrea 86% Ethiopia 47 139 51% Kenya 12% 19 Rwanda 17% Nam Sudan 60%, • " 117 Sudan Tanzania 40% 79 Uganda 40% 67 Nguon: CBWS 2010 vd 201] " ' 3% 6»7o 99% 3% 2% 12% 2% 1% 7% 2% 6% ^ An ninh ngudn nudc cdn tao co hpi cho giao thuang va hdi nhap giira cac qudc gia luu vuc sdng Nile Nhu tren da de cap, sdng Nile chay qua 11 qudc gia Ddng - Bac Phi vdi chieu dai de tau be cd the qua lai la 4.149 km, la mdt nhiing huylt mach giao thdng dudng thuy quan trgng khdng chi cua mdi qudc gia ven sdng ma cdn cua ca luu vuc sdng Nile Dudng thuy ndi dia sdng Nile giiip chuyen chd nhilu hang hda cd ldn, tit nhung tuyln dudng ngan din nhimg tuyln dudng dai vdi chi phi phai chang va hieu qua han nhieu so vdi he thing dudng bd va hang khdng hien tai khu vyc Ching han 0,8% 0,0% 0,0% 0,4% 0,0% - 0,0% 0,0%, 1,0% 0,9% 0,0% 0,0% 0,4% 27,5% - 0,0% 0,0% 1,0% Tiem niing Kha nang san xu3t thuy di?n nam 2010 (MW) thiiy dien Tiem nang thuy dien nam 20IO (MW) D 20 78 2.862 40 931 25 27 13.947 191 20 2.570 3280 280 4.343 - i.S9'3 380 J nhanh Nile Trang tir Kosti din Juba la tuyen dudng thuy chinh ndi tir khu vyc Hi Xich dao den cac nudc luu ven sdng Nile, tao dieu kien thuc day thuang mai, trao ddi nong san giita cac nudc thang du ndng nghiep nhu Nam Sudan, Uganda va cac nudc nhap khau rdng luong thyc nhu Ai Cap Hay nhu H6 Victoria ciing la he thdng giao thdng quan trgng tao vanh dai lien kit giua vanh dai phia bac bao gdm: Kigali - thu dd cua Rwanda, Kampala - thu cua Uganda va Mobasa phd cang ldn thir hai cua Kenya vdi vanh dai trung tam bao gdm: Dar es Salaam - phd ldn nhat va giau cd nhat ciia Tgp chi nghien cuu CHAU PHI & TRUNG BONG SO 12 (112) thdng 12/2014 An ninh nguon nfldc, Tanzania, Tobara - thu phu cua khu vuc Tobara, Tanzania vd Mwanza - mgt thdnh phd khdc cua Tanzania Viec nang cdp he thdng dudng thiiy hd Victoria se mang lai CO hgi thuc day hgi nhdp kinh td gifta cdc nudc xung quanh hd Hg luu song Nile chdy qua Ai Cap dd giup he thdng dudng thuy cua qudc gia phdt tridn Nhd sdng Nile, hang hda tu cac nudc thugng ngudn sdng Nile cung nhu hang hda sdu ngi dia Ai Cap dugc van chuyen trdn nhung xa lan, tdu thuy cd ldn den cdc phd ven sdng Nile vd xudt khdu cdc nudc khdc tai hai cang Alexandia cua Ai Cap, vd tu xa xua cdc cang ven sdng Nile cua Ai Cap da trd nhftng dia didm giao thuong hang hda sdm sudt vd ndi tidng trdn thd gidi Hien nay, Ai Cap cd ddn 18 cang ndi dia, ngoai Uganda (18 cang ngi dia), CHDC Congo (13 edng ngi dia) va Sudan (8 cdng ngi dja) cung khdng ngimg md rgng vd phdt frien cac cdng ngi dia nhdm thiic day trao ddi hang hda vd hdi nhdp khu vuc sdu rgng han Cd thd khang dinh rang an ninh ngudn nudc dugc ddm bdo se tao co hgi dd phat tridn he thdng giao thdng dudng thuy ngi dia cung nhu thiic ddy hgi nhdp khu vuc vd todn cdu cua cdc qudc gia luu vuc sdng Nile, giup cdc qude gia tdng trudng bdn vftng Pham Thi Kim Hue cua Ethiopia sd dat khoang 132 tridu ngudi; Ai Cap 111 trieu ngudi; CHDC Congo 109 trieu ngudi; Tanzania 75 trieu ngudi^' Tdc dp tang ddn so dd thj hang ndm khoang tfl 45%, nhung ddn ndm 2030 dai da sd dan cu cfla cac nudc nhu Burundi, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda vd Uganda sd song d cdc viing ndng thdn ven sdng Cugc sdng cua hg phu thugc hoan toan vao vide khai thdc tai nguyen thidn nhidn frdn sdng nhu: ddnh bat cd va sdn xudt ndng nghidp nhu: frdng trgt va chdn nudi gia sue, dieu se Idm gidm va gdy d nhidm ngudn nudc tdc dgng true tidp ddn moi trudng sinh thai cfla luu vuc song Nile Hon thd nfta, nhung nam gdn day, mdt sd qudc gia luu vuc sdng Nile cd tdc tang trudng khd cao nhu: CHDC Congo dat ty Id tdng trudng GDP thuc td ndm 2013 la 8,2%; Rwanda 7,1%; Eritrea 7,0%; Tanzania 6,9% vd Ethiopia 6,5%^^, vay nhu cdu vd nudc, ddc bidt la nudc dung cho sinh hogt vd sdn xuat cang gia tang ngudn cung tu luu vuc sdng Nile khdng phai la vd ban Ddng thdi nudc thai sinh boat vd nudc thdi cdng nghiep cung vi thd md gia tdng khidn nguon nudc luu vuc sdng Nile mgt d nhiem Cd the ndi rang dp luc vd gia tang dan sd dang de nang ldn cdc quoc gia ven sdng Nile, de dpa an ninh ngudn nudc luu vuc sdng - Thach thirc: Thu nhdt, su gia tang ddn sd cua edc qudc gia luu v\rc song Nile tgo thdeh thuc khong nhd ddi vdi an ninh nguon nudc vi Iiru vuc sdng Nile la noi cu ngu cfla dai bg phdn ddn cu cdc qudc gia ven sdng Theo tinh toan cua Uy ban Dan sd Lien hgp qudc, tdng ddn sd cua cdc qudc gia luu vuc sdng Nie ddn nam 2030 sd dat 647 trieu ngudi, tang gap 2/3 lan so vdi ddn sd nam 2012 cua cac qudc gia luu virc sdng Nile Trong do, cdc qudc gia nhu: Ethiopia, Ai Cap, CHDC Congo, Tanzania ddu Id nhung nuoc cd dan sd tdng nhanh, cu the den nam 2030, dan sd Thir hai, bidn ddi hdu la mgt frong nhung mdi de dpa nghidm trpng nhat ddn mdi trudng tu nhien va mdi trudng sdng va luu vuc sdng Nile cung khdng phdi ngoai id Trong mpt thd ky gdn ddy, nhiet dp trung binh cua frai ddt gia tang 0,8*'C, dac biet d chdu Phi - noi cd sa mac Sahara ldn nhdt thd gidi, nhiet dp khdng ngimg tdng nhanh 30 nam, qua tdc dpng xdu den mdi tnrong va ngudn nudc cua luc dia den, luu vuc sdng Nile nam khu vuc cd hdu ban khd cdn va kho cdn nen chiu anh hudng cdn nghiem trpng hon Bidn doi hau Tgp chi nghien cu-u CHAU PHI & TRUNG DONG SO 12 (112) thang 12/2014 An ninh nguon nu'dc Pham Thi Kim Hue khien miia mua cua luu vuc sdng Nile ngan di va trd nen that thudng Dieu khdng chi lam suy giam ngudn nudc cua luu vyc ma cdn khien ndng dan lim vuc sdng Nile khd canh tac miia mang, dan den nguy co mat an ninh luong thyc Hon the nda, the ky XX chung kien mue nudc bien dang cang dang cao vdi mue trung binh nam la 1,7mm hien tuong tan chay cac tang bang tai Bac cyc va Nam cue vi nhiet dp d dai duang tang cao Nude bien dang cao de dpa nghiem trpng den dien tich ddng bang chau thd sdng Nile Theo tinh toan, cu lm nudc biln dang len se lam ngap 4.500 km' mua mang va khien 6,1 trieu ngudi sdng d vung bi anh hudng phai di ddi Ben canh dd, nudc bien dang cao cdn lam tang sy xam thue nudc man, khien dat dai nhilm man khdng cdn kha nang canh tac, gay mit miia de dpa an ninh luang thyc cua Ai Cap ndi rieng va ciia toan bd luu vuc sdng Nile ndi chung Biln ddi hau cung vdi sy gia tang dan sl da khien cho dien tich rimg cua mdt sd qudc gia luu vyc sdng Nile, dac biet cua cac qudc gia d thupng ngudn sdng Nile thdi gian qua giam dang kl Cu thi giai doan tu 1990 din 2008, dien tich rimg cua Burundi giam 39,2%; Uganda giam 33,4%; Tanzania giam 17,5%; Sudan giam 8,5%; Kenya giam 5,9%; CHDC Congo giam 3,5%^' Viec dien tich rimg diu ngudn sdng Nile bi suy giam, khdng cdn vanh dai bao ve mua mua din khien 10 tran sdng Nile trd nen dir vdi dd tan pha cao gay ngap lut tren dien rdng d luu sdng Nile Khdng ehi cd vay, hien tuong sat Id hai ben bd sdng Nile cdng vi thi ma gia tang Chi vdng nam tir 2005 den 2009, tai nguyen mdi trudng cua luu vue sdng Nile bj suy giam, cu thi dien tich ddng cd ven sdng giam tir 342.344 km' xudng cdn 326.096 km , cac loai sinh vat nudc luu vyc ciing giam 1,3%'\ dd dit hpc gia tang tir 965.165 km' nam 2005 len 978.918 km' nam 2009 Cd the ndi rang biln ddi hau dat khdng it thach thuc ddi vdi an ninh ngudn nudc luu vyc sdng Nile, tac ddng day chuyen den an ninh luong thyc, an ninh nang lupng va tinh hinh an ninh cua cac qudc gia luu vyc Do vay, cdc qudc gia luu vyc sdng Nile ndi rieng va cdng ddng the gidi can phai hpp tac trien khai cac bien phap va hanh ddng cy the va hieu qua td bay gid de bao dam an ninh nguin nudc lim vyc sdng Nile vi lpi ieh cua mli qudc gia ven sdng, cua luu vuc sdng Nile, cua luc dia den va toan trai dat Nudc dang trd mpt nhimg mat hang quy cua the gidi, nhu cau ve nudc cang gia tang ngudn nudc trd nen khan hiem Viec tranh chap ngudn nudc sdng Nile la nguyen nhan gay cang thing va cd the cham ngdi cho cac cupc xung dot gida cac qudc gia luu vyc sdng Nile nhu nhan xet cua cyu Tdng thu ky Lien Hgp Quic Boutros Ghali - ngudi Ai Cap "Chiln tranh tiep theo tai Trung Ddng se vi nudc chii' khdng phai vi chinh tri"" Trong lich su, nam 1970 Ethiopia cd y dinh x^y dyng mdt dap thuy didn tren hi Tana - thupng ngudn cua nhanh Nile xanh, tdng thing Ai Cap Anwar Al-Sadad Idc biy gid dga phat ddng ehiln tranh khiln Ethiopia phai chuyin dia dilm xay dyng Nam 2004, Ai Cap cflng de dpa danh bom pha buy du an dudng Ing din nudc dai 170 km tit Hi Victoria - hd nudc ngpt ldn nhit chau Phi va thd hai tren the gidi, thupng ngudn ciia nhanh Nile tring nlu Tanzania vin Uiln khai thyc hien dy an dudi su tai trp cua My va Ngan hang Thi gidi Du an ciia Tanzania da khdng thi thyc hien dupe My va Ngan hang Thi gidi lo sp cang thing leo thang cd thi din tdi xay xung dpt t?i khu vyc nen da dimg tai trp Gin day, cang thang lien quan din ngudn nudc sdng Nile Tgp chi nghien cuu CHAU PHI & TRUNG BONG so 12 (112) thing 12/2014 Pham Thj Kim Hue An ninh nguon ntfdc gifta mdt ben la Ai Cap, Sudan vd ben Id Ethiopia, Tanzania, Uganda vd Rwanda lai gia tang bdn nudc thugng ngudn sdng Nile gdm: Ethiopia, Tanzania, Uganda vd Rwanda ky hidp udc Entebbe vao ngdy 14/5/2010 cho phep cdc nudc thugng ngudn su dung nudc nhidu hon cho cdc mue dich ndng nghidp vd thuy dien, khac so vdi thda thudn ky kdt nam 1929^^ Chinh vi vdy, Hidp udc dd vdp phdi su phan ddi gay gdt tu Ai Cap va Sudan - hai qudc gia d ngudn sdng Nile vi cho rang "quyen ljch sfl" sfl dung 87% ngudn nudc sdng Nile cua Ai Cap vd Sudan bi dnh hudng nghidm trgng Hon hdt, Ai Cap hieu rd tam quan trgng cua ngudn nudc d6i vdi su tdn tai vd phat tridn cua qudc gia minh, vdy Ai Cap se dung "tat cd mgi bi|n phdp" (kd cd qudn sir) de bdo dam quyen su dung ngudn nudc sdng Nile cua minh Hon thd nfta, quan he giua Ai Cgp vd Ethiopia dot nggt trd ndn cang thdng sau Ethiopia tien hdnh chuyen hudng ddng chdy nhdnh Nile xanh khudn khd xdy dung dap thiiy didn "Dgi phuc Ethiopia", cd tdng vdn ddu tu Ien tdi 4,2 ty USD vdi cdng sudt 6.000 MW vd dung lupng chua 200 ty m'' Viec xdy dung ddp "Dai phuc Ethiopia" sd tac dpng tieu cue den ban ngach khai thdc nudc sdng Nile cua Ai Cap va luu lugng nudc dd vd dap thuy dien Aswan fren ho Nasser se gidm it nhdt la ty m^ Dieu se khidn gan 0,8 trieu dat nong nghiep khong the tiep tuc canh tac vd cd thd gay cdc van dd vd cung cap nudc cho sinh boat vd cdng nghiep cho Ai Cap Cd y kidn cho rang dgng thdi cua Ethiopia la "hdnh dgng gay chien" Ndu hai ben khdng tim dugc gidi phdp de giai quyet cugc xung dot thi rat cd thd vi ngudn nude sd la mdi lira chdm ngdi cho cupc chidn tranh Cd the ndi rdng an ninh ngudn nudc dat nhung ca hgi vd nhftng thdeh thuc ddi vdi cac qudc gia luu vuc sdng Nile Ldm the nao dd phdt huy nhftng co hgi va han che nhftng nii ro ddi vdi an ninh nguon nudc nhdm bdo vd cdc he thdng nudc de bi tdn thuang, phdng ngua cdc thidn tai lien quan ddn nudc nhu lu lut vd hgn ban, phdt fridn tdi nguydn nudc vd dam bdo tidp can cac chflc ndng vd dich vu vd nudc Id trdch nhidm va nghia vu khdng chi cua rieng qudc gia ndo ma la cua toan luu vuc song Nile, cua chdu Phi vd toan the gidi Chti thich: ' Guiness World Records 2013 ^ NBI Basin Map ^ The Millenium Development Goals Report 2014 ''•^•' Human Development Report 2013 " 2014 African Economic Outlook, OECD 2014 ^ 2014 African Economic Outlook, OECD 2014 ^ UN Population Division, World Population Prospects, 2010 and Landscan 2009 '" http://www.indexmundi.com " http://www.indexmundi.com '^ http://jinja.go.ug/ '^ http://www.mwanzacity.go.tz "'KNBS2012 '^ http://www.skvscrapercitv.com '^ https://w'ww.cia.gov ^ http://www,tiptop globe, com '^ http://www.evi.com '^ http://population.mongabav.com ^^ hHp://www.mapsofworld.com ^' UN population division, 2008 " AfDB Statistics Department, Various Domestic Authorities and AfDB estimates ^' Human Development Report, 2011 ^* Nile Basin Initiative, State ofthe River Nile Basin 2012 " Nicol, 2003 Day la thda thuan gifla cac nudc thupc dia ciia Anh tai luu virc sdng Nile eho phep Ai Cap nudc d luu sdng Nile cd quygn phii quygt doi vdi cac du an Idn d thucmg ngudn cung nhu sd huu 55,5 ty m nudc mdi nSm, tuong duong 2/3 luu lugng nudc ciia sdng Nile Tgp chi nghien ciru CHAU PHI & TRUNG DONG SO 12 (112) thang 12/2014 ... thdng 12/2014 An ninh nguon nfldc, Tanzania, Tobara - thu phu cua khu vuc Tobara, Tanzania vd Mwanza - mgt thdnh phd khdc cua Tanzania Viec nang cdp he thdng dudng thiiy hd Victoria se mang lai CO... Cd the ndi rang biln ddi hau dat khdng it thach thuc ddi vdi an ninh ngudn nudc luu vyc sdng Nile, tac ddng day chuyen den an ninh luong thyc, an ninh nang lupng va tinh hinh an ninh cua cac... Rwanda Nam Sudan Sudan Tanzania Uganda Nguon: WHO/UNICEF 2010 Ben canh dd, ty le dan sd dupc tilp can ngudn nudc sach cua Ai Cap chilm ty le cao nhat nam 2008, 100% dan sd thj va 98%i dan sd ndng