Nghiên cứu tổng quan một số mô hình tính toán phát thải khí nhà kinh từ trồng trọt

Nghien ciru NGHIEN c u t ! TONG QUAN MOT S6 M HINH TINH TOAN PHAT THAI KHI NHA KINH TlT TRONG TROT Bui Th| Thu TrangS Mai Van TrinhS Le Thi Trinh', Nguyln Thi Hoai Thuong' Trudng Dai hpc Tai nguySn v i Mdi trudng H i Ndi ^ViSn Mdi trudng Ndng nghiep Viet Nam Tom tat Viic tinh todn phdt thdi nhd kinh (KNK) tir cdc hogt dgng sdn xudt nong nghiep co vai tro quan trong viec xdc dinh muc phdt thdi de de xudt cdc biin phdp gidm phdt thai KNK Tren the gioi cd nhilu phuong phip, md hinh tinh toan phat thai hay kiSm ke KNK dugc ip dung linh vuc nong nghiep Moi phuang phdp md hinh tinh todn co nhirng kit qud vd suphu hop khdc doi vai nhiing khu vuc cu thi Bdi bao ndy trinh bdy kit qud nghiin cuu vd tham vdn chuyen gia, di tie ddnh gid mot so mo hinh tinh todn phdt thdi KNK tie cac hogt dgng san xudt ndng nghiip bien hiin Kit qud nghien cieu gop phdn giiip cho cdc nhd nghien cuu de ddng han liea chon mo hinh vd di xudt nhiing gidi phdp phii hap gidm nhe phdt thdi KNK cua VietNam Tir khoa: Md hinh tinh phit thii KNK; Phit thai KNK ndng nghiSp; Md hinh tinh phat thii KNK; Phat thai KNK ndng nghiSp Abstract Assessment some calculation models of greenhouse gas emissions in agro-ecosystems The calculation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agricultural production plays an important role in determining emissions to propose reduce GHG emissions's measures There are many methods, models of emission calculation or GHG inventory in the agriculture field But in each country, the environment conditions such as climate, terrain, and so many other natural conditions are so different, then the methods and models have different results and suitability This paper introduces and evaluates some models of GHG emission calculation from the current popular agricultural production activities, contributing to the researchers' easier to select of models for their research, then suggest appropriate solutions, in consider to reduce GHG emissions in Vietnam Keywords: Calculation model of GHG emissions; GHG emission in agriculture activities; Calculation model of GHG emissions; GHG emissions in agriculture activities Dat v i n de TraiDat Cic KNK chu yeu bao gdm: hai Khi n h i kinh l i nhiing cd kha nang hip thu cac hdc xa song dai (hdng ngoai) dugc phan xa tu b l mat Trai Dit dugc chilu sang bing anh sang mat trdi, sau dd phan tan nhiet Iai cho Trai Dit, gay nen hieu ung nha kinh KNK inh hudng manh me den nhiet dp cua " " ^ c , CO,, CH,, N , , O3, cac CFC Can cii theo nguin gdc phat sinh, mdc dd phit thai tuyet ddi va xu hudng phit thai cung nhu mdc anh hudng din tdng tilm nang phat thai KNK cua cic qudc gia, cac ngudn phat thii dugc chia nhdm chinh [4] ; • Tgp chi Khoa hoc Tdi nguyen vd Moi tru&ng - So 19 ^ ndm 2018 27 Nghien cuu - Ndng lugng: L i mdt nhiing ngudn phit thai KNK ldn nhit hien LTnh vuc thudng ddng gdp din trSn 90% lugng CO, va 75% lugng KNK khic phit thai d cic nude dang phat trien Phat thai ITnh vuc nang lupng chia nhdm: phat thai ddt chay nhien lipu hda thach (trong cac nginh cdng nghiSp nang lugng, boat ddng giao thdng van tai, ); Phat thai tuc thdi (tuc Ii luong khi, hoi thai td cac thiet bi nen rd ri, khdng mong mudn hoac khdng thudng xuySn td qua trinh khai thic, chS biSn, vin chuyen nhien lieu, ) v i boat ddng thu hdi va luu trii cac bon [4] - Quy trinh cong nghiep vd sii dung sdn phdm: Phat thai tir ITnh virc IPPU phit sinh cac quy trinh xu ly cdng nghiSp; viec su dung KNK cac sin phim va su dung cic bon cac nhiSn lieu hda thach khdng nham muc dich sin xuat nang lugng Trong dd, ngudn phat thai chmh li cac quy trinh cdng nghiSp xu ly nguyen lieu vl mat hda hpc hoac vat ly Trong sudt cac quy trinh niy, nhieu Ioai KNK dugc tao bao gdm: COj, CH,, np, HFCs va PFCs - Chdt thdi: Cac loai KNK cd thi phat sinh ITnh vuc chit thii bao gdm: CO,, CH, va N^O Cic ngudn phat sinh KNK chinh liiih -vuc chit thii dugc ghi n h ^ li: chdn lip chit thii ran; xu ly sinh hpc chat thii rin; thiSu huy v i dot md chat thii; xu ly v i x i nude thii Thdng thudng, CH^ phit thai tir cac bai chdn lip chat thii ran (SWDS) ehilm ty IS Idn nhit tdng lugng KNK ciia ITnh -vuc n i y Cic md hinh tinh toan phat thai KNK ndng nghiep dugc xiy dung vdi cac du lipu dau vao vS tugng, thuy van, dat dai, hS thdng canh tac, Mgt md hinh gdm nhilu md~dun khic Md hinh dugc iing dung dl tinh toan va md phdng lugng phat thai cac KNKnhu:CH^,NO^,CO,, Phirtrng phap nghien cuu De danh gii dupc uu, nhuge diem va so sanh viec iing dung hiSu qui md hinh dilu kien Viet Nam, phuang phip nghien cuu chinh dugc sd dung bao gdm: - Phucmg phdp thu thgp tdi lieu: Thu thap cac tai liSu hudng din sii dung mdt so md hinh tinh toan phat thai - Nong nghiip, ldm nghiip vd sir KNK tirong linh -vuc ndng nghiSp; Thu dy.ng ddt: Cic ngudn chii ySu gay phat thii thap cac cic thdng tin cd lien quan, cic bao gdm phat thai CH^ va N p hi chan nghiSn cdu da su dung md hinh tinh nudi, tirdng liia nude, dit canh tac ndng toin phit thai KNK ITnh -vuc ndng nghiep, boat dgng ddt sin xuit ndng nghiep tren thi gidi, nude v i d dia nghiSp; Phat thai/hip thu CH^ ITnh phucmg, dugc cdng bd tren cac trang vpc ndng, lam nghiep va thay doi sii dung bao, tap chi, tren mang intemet, cac bao dat Ndi chung, ITnh vuc ndng nghiSp, lam cao, ket qui cua cic chucmg trinh, du an nghiep va sd dyng dit ddng gdp khoing da thuc hipn tai dia phuang 30% lugng phit thii KNK toan ciu, chu - Phuang phdp Delphi: Su dung ylu li COj phat thai tir nhung thay phuang phap Delphi nhim thu thap y dli tirong sd dung dit (phin ldn la pha kiSn danh gii tu cac nhdm chuySn gia rimg nhiet ddi) va CH,, N p tu trdng trpt ve uu dilm, nhuge dilm, tieu chi lua vi chan nudi gia siic [4] chpn md hinh 28 Tgp chi Khoa hgc Tdi nguyen vd Mdi tru&ng -Sd 19- ndm 2018 Nghien ciru K i t qua nghiSn cuu 3.1 Ddnh gia mdt so md hinh tinh todn phdt thdi KNK tU cac hoat dgng trpt nong nghiep 3.1.1 Mo hinh DNDC (Denitrification - Decomposition) a Giai thi^u chung ve mo hinh Md hmh DNDC (Denitriiication - Decomposition) la md hinh sinh dia hda dit, cho phep du bio cin bang cacbon v i cin bang dam dit, su phit thii m$t sl nhi kinh nhu CO,, CH,, N , tii cic he sinh thii ndng nghiep [3] Md hinh dupc xay dung vdi cac thdng sd dau vio gdm cac thdng sd vS tinh chit Iy hda eua dit, thdng sd vS dieu Men hau nhu nhiet - am, thdng sd ve ciy trdng nhu lich gieo trdng, thu ho^ch Md hinh dupc Vien NghiSn cdu Trii dit, Dai duang va Khdng gian cua Dai hpc New Hampshire phit triSn de du doan lugng phit thii nha kinh tu cac he smh thai [5] vimg hau dn ddi va nhiet ddi Md hinh dugc xay di^g vdi cac thdng sd diu vao gdm cac thdng sl ve tinh chat ly hda cua dat, thdng so ve dieu kien hiu nhiet - am, thdng so ve cay trdng nhu lich gieo trdng, thu hoach, phuang thuc cham bdn, Md hinh niy dugc xay di;ng tren nhieu phuang ti-inh sinh dia hda thuc nghiSm cac dieu kien mdi trudng khac nhu ySm khi, ky khi, Md hinh md phdng cac phat thai theo thdi gian cd the li gid hoac d cip dia phucmg, khu vuc Cling nhu tiSn pham vi toin qudc [6] b Cdu tnic ciia mo hinh Cau tnic md hinh gdm: Hgp phin md hinh hau, dit, ciy trdng va md hinh ve phin buy dung de dinh gia nhiet do, dp im, thi oxi hda-khd cua dit va tiln trinh cua eac yeu td phau dien, nang xuat cay trdng, udc lugng ham lugng cacbon dua vao dat tir cac cay tidng Cac thdng sd chiu tac dpng ciia dac trung hau, dat, cay tidng va boat ddng cua ngudi Hpp phan thir hai gdm md hinh Nitiate hda, khu Nitiate va md hinh oxi hda-khu nham udc lugng su phat thii cac CO^, CH,, NH^, NO, N , , N, tii cac he canh tic ndng nghipp Md hinh DNDC nham md phdng lai mdi quan he giiia cic chu trinh sinh hda cacbon, nita v i cic ylu t l sinh thai [3] Md hinh DNDC cho phep du bio, ciing nhu danh gia mdc dd thay ddi ham lugng cacbon hiiu co tiong dat cua cic vung dit canh tac ndng nghipp d quy md diSm va viing Sinh trudng ciy tidng ddng mdt vai tid quan tipng tiong viec diSu chinh cacbon, nita tiong dit v i chS dp nude, ban niia cd thi inh hudng den mpt loat cic qui trinh sinh hda hoac dia hda hpe xiy tiong dit Mdt md hinh php dugc xay dung tiong DNDC de md phdng su phit triSn cua ciy tidng, Mdt nhdm cac thdng sl cay cd thS dugc cung cip hoac thay ddi bdi ngudi sir dung dl xic dinh ciy tidng cua minh Cac thdng sd cay tidng bao gdm nang suit tilm nang, sinh khdi phan bd d tiing bg phan rS, than li, ty IS cacbon/ nito, nhiet dp timg ngiy, nhu cau nude, v i dinh dudng dam Su tang trudng cay tiong dugc md phdng bdi qua tirinh tich dn, quang hgp, su hap thu dam va nude theo timg bude thdi gian hang ngiy Cic qua trinh quang hgp, hd hap, phan bd cacbon, nude va hap thu nita dugc md phdng hing ngiy va dugc ghi lai dS ngudi su dung cd thi kiem tra ket qui md hinh ddi chiSu vdi nhirng quan tiac dl dim bao rang cic ciy tidng dugc md phdng mdt each chinh xac Cic thdng sd cay tidng cd thS dugc ngudi su dung Tap chi Khoa hoc Tdi nguyen vdMoi truang- So 19-nam 2018 - 29 Nghiin criw nhap va sua ddi thdng qua giao dien dau vio ciia phan mem mdt cich nhanh chdng Nhu cau nito dugc tinh toin dua tren su tang trudng cua ciy tidng hut hang theo cic dilu kien thdi tiSt nhu tdc dp quang hgp de tdng hgp hydrate cacbon Lugng dam hap thu thi/c te cua ciy trdng cd the hi gidi ban bdi dam dat va m^t it bd sung tii ngudn nude tiong sudt vu mua Khi cacbon hiiu ca tiong dit (SOC) bi phan huy, cacbon phan buy bj giam mdt phin v i mit di d dang CO^ va phin cdn lai phan bd vao bS SOC khic Toan bp md hinh dugc diSu khien bdi bdn ylu td sinh thai chmh, cu tiiS li hau, dit dai, thuc vat vi quin ly Yeu td quan tipng cho mdt md phdng diinh cdng de cd dugc du lieu dau vao day du va chinh xac ve bdn qua trinh diSu khien chinh Hieu chinh md hinh: Md hinh dugc hieu chinh bang cich so sanh kit qui tinh toan phat thai KNK cua md hinh vdi kSt qui thi nghiem ddng rudng va dieu chinh cic thdng sd cua md hinh de kSt qua tinh toin cua md hinh gin vdi kSt qua thuc dia tiong eiing mpt dilu kien tugng, dit dai, cay tidng v i canh tac dS tii dd cd cac thdng sd chuin cho md hinh theo dieu kien diSm nghiSn ciiu Qua tiinh hiSu chinh md hinh dugc danh gii dd chinh xac sd dung he so xac dinh R, v i chi sd hieu qua NashSutcliffe (NSI) c Cdc da lieu ddu vdo vd ddu cua mo hinh - Cdc da lieu ddu vdo cua mo hinh • Dii lieu vl tiigng thiiy van: Nhiet dp, lupng mua, t i e dp gid, hue xa mat tidi, dp im • Dii lieu vS canh tac: Gidng, thdi gian gieo ciy, thu hoach, phan bdn, hjdi nude, quin Ii miia vp, 30 - • Du lieu ve dat dai: Loai dit, pH, dp xdp, dp man, ham Iupng NO3', NH,*, - Cdc du lieu ddu cua mo hinh: • Lupng phat tiiai CH,,N,0, tien dem vi dien tich • Ham lugng cacbon tich luy tiong dat d U'u diim vd han che cua mo hinh DNDC U'u diSm: Cho phep tinh toin dinh lugng him lugng cacbon tiong dat d quy md vung, md hinh DNDC phu hgp cho nghiSn ciiu SOC d vung ndng nghiSp nhiet ddi KSt qua udc lugng chinh xac hon cac md hinh ITE, SOMM, Verbeme, Hgn chi: Chi tinh toin dugc su phit tiiai mpt sd KNK nhu CO,, CH,, N , td cic he sinh thai ndng nghiep 3.1.2 Mo hinh CANDY (CArbonNitrogen-D Ynamics) a Giai thiiu chung vi mo hinh La md hinh md phdng dpng luc ciia cacbon, nita, nhiet dd v i nude tiong dit ndng nghiep d quy md khu vuc dl cung cap thdng tm vS trir lugng cacbon tiong dit, tdng chit huu ca, su hap thu nito cua cay tidng, su rda tidi v i chit lugng nude Md hinh chua cac md-dun dS tinh nhiet dp dat, dp im v i cac qua trinh cua chu trinh cacbon-nifrogen tiong dat dugc dung phd bien d cic qudc gia phat triln [2] Md hinh bao gdm mpt he thdng md-dun ciia cac md hinh phu va mpt he thdng ca sd du lieu cho md hinh thdng sd, gia tii dit ban dau, dii lieu thdi tiSt, sd lieu quin ly dat dai va ludng gii tii CANDY chu tipng din cic dang nita huu ca va khoang san Nita khoing chat xuat hien dudi dang nitiat (NO^-N) hoac ammonium (NH,-N) CANDY bao gdm cac quy trinh chinh iien quan dSn Tgp chi Khoa hgc Tdi nguyin vd Mdi tru&ng -So 19- ndm 2018 Nghien cOu he thdng ndng nghiSp v i cic co sd can thiet cho viec quan ly du lieu: Tinh chit cua dit, dil lieu vl ban va quan ly ndng nghiSp b Cdc dir lieu ddu vdo vd ddu cua mo hinh - Cdc du liiu ddu vdo cua mo hinh: • Dii lieu vS thdi tiet (nhiet dp khdng khi, lugng mua v i hue xa toan can hang ngiy) • Du lieu vS die diem phat tiien cay tidng (hat gidng, thu hoach, chieu cao va chieu sau ciy tidng) • Dii lieu vS kSt cau dit va quin ly ndng nghiSp (tudi, bdn phin, ) - Cdc du lieu ddu cua mo hinh: • Du lieu vS dat dai (tdng cacbon, nitiate, ) • Dii lieu ciy trdng (him lugng nita va cacbon tiong dit tu phan buy thuc vat) c t/u diem vd hgn chi ciia mo hinh CANDY Uu diSm: Tinh thdi gian boat ddng sinh hpc cho phep danh gii su hap thu cic chat hiru ca dit cho cac dia diem khic Ngoai day li mpt md hinh dua vio qua trinh smh thai, chit che, dp tin cay cao, ySu ciu dau vao khdng qua phuc tap, thdng sd dau vio nhd, cd thS phin tich theo thdi gian tu gid, ngiy va cd the lua chpn theo thing v i nam Cd the sii dung md hinh de tinh toin tiSn nhieu pham vi dia ly cd dp ldn khac Hgn che: Chi cung cap thdng tin vS chu trinh cacbon-nita tiong dat, khdng ed hudng dan va Idi giii thich cu the cho cac q u i trinh tiong md hinh, va md hinh niy khdng xem xet su tuang tic eua he sinh thii frSn can vdi he sinh thii thuy smb 3.1.3 Mo hinh sinh quyin CASA (Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach) a Giai thiiu chung ve mo hinh Md hinh sinh quySn CaraegieAmes-Stanford Approach CASA l i mdt tiong nhiing md hinh diu tiSn de md phdng su phat thai toan ciu cua nita oxit va mdt loai KNK quan tipng khic Md hinh dimg de phin tich anh hudng cua bien ddi hau din nang suit he sinh thii trSn pham vi toan cau den khu vuc Md hinh CASA cd the dugc su dung de nghiSn ciiu cich thuc phi rimg nhiet ddi v i nhiing thay ddi tiong su dung dat gay phat thai KNK Nd cung co thS mang lai hieu biet tdt han v l vai tid cua rimg v i thay ddi su dpng dat tiong cic chu tiinh sinh hpe toin ciu CASA tinh toin ddng chay theo mua cua cacbon giua bau quyen v i tang sinh quyln tiSn mat dat vdi mdt sd budc thdi gian khac Ddng luc chtnh cua md hinh CASA li kha nang sd dung du lieu vien thim dS tinh toan sin xuit rdng sa cap (NPP), doanh thu cacbon thdng qua ca ehS gidng cay tidng va mo hinh diezen cacbon [8] Md binh CASA su dung cic thuat toin toan hpc phuc tap va cdng nghe dia ly tinh vi dS tiiu thap va phin tich du heu dl tinh cic biSn sd bien ddi tiong bS chda cacbon va su hap thu d cac khu vyc tiSn thi gidi b Cdc die liiu ddu vdo vd ddu cita mo hinh - Cdc du lieu ddu vdo cua mo hinh gom: • Dli lieu viSn thim • Du lieu tugng (nhiet dp khdng trung binh, tdng lugng buc xa, ham lugng bde hoi, ) • Dir lieu chi sd thuc vat NDVI (AVHRR) Tgp chi Khoa hgc Tdi nguyin vd Mdi tru&ng - So 19 - ndm 2018 31 Nghien cOu - Cdc da lieu ddu cua mo hinh gom: • Phin dng cua tiao ddi CO, va cac khic tiong cic he sinh thai tiSn mat dat dSn su bien ddi hiu c Uu diem vd hgn che cua mo hinh Uu dilm: U'u dilm cua md hinh l i thdng sd diu vio nhd, chi yeu can bd dii lieu dan giin gdm du lieu tugng va mdt sd dii liSu ve chi sd thuc vat Hgn chi: Nhuge diem cua rod hinh la khdng cd tii lieu hudng din cu thS, Idi giii thich cho md hinh khd hieu, su dung cic thuat toan toan hgc phde tap, khdng thi sd dung md hinh niy cho muc dich nghien cuu kich bin, tinh lmh ddng cua mo hinh kem, v i md hinh niy khdng xem xet mdi quan he v i su tucmg tac cua hS sinh thai tien can vdi he smh thai thuy sinh 3.L4 Mo hinh mo phong ca hoc cdc qud trinh vgt ly vd sinh hgc hogt dgng sdn xudt nong nghiep DAISY a Gi&i thieu chung ve mo hinh DAISY l i mdt md hinh xic dinh, md phdng nang suit ciy trdng, nude, nang lugng, cacbon va N-fluxes sin xuat ndng nghiep DAISY dugc phat tiien bdi cic thinh vien cua nhdm nghiSn cdu Agrohydrology tai Phdng Hda hgc Mdi trudng va V i t ly tai Khoa Khoa hpc Th\rc vat v i Mdi trudng thupc Khoa Khoa hpc Dai hpe Copenhagen Nha khoa hpe cd trach nhiem chinh la Soren Hansen DAISY dugc biSt din la mgt md hinh md phdng co hpc cac qui trinh vit ly va sinh hpc hoat dpng san xuit ndng nghiSp Nd ehi diu vlt cua nude, nang lugng, cacbon, nita, v i thudc tru sau, ca trSn v i dudi mat dat [4] Md hinh niy cd thi tiSn doin dugc phit thai, tic dpng mdi trudng 32 — dudi dang nia trdi, va thay ddi chit lugng cacbon, nita theo thdi gian De md hinh hoat ddng tien cic khu vuc cd diSn tich ldn, DAISY can phii dugc kit hpp vdi mdt hS thing GIS DAISY cd thS ap dung cho viec tinh toan tiong cac he sinh thai ndng ngbiSp d khu v\rc dn ddi cd the cd bang v i tuySt phu, nhung khdng tinh dugc gii tri cua nito rua tidi nhd tu he thdng ndng nghiSp v i khdng md phdng phit thii N^O gian tilp Mpt sd kinh nghiSm md hinh hda dugc xem li can thiet de su dung md hinh DAISY b Cdc du lieu ddu vdo vd ddu ciia mo hinh - Cdc du lieu ddu vdo mo hinh: • Dii lieu ve dit dai (loai dit, pH, dp xdp, dp man, ham lugng NO^", NH,"^, ) • Dir lieu ve thai tiet (Nhiet dp, lugng mua, tdc dg gid, bde x?i mat frdi, dp im) - Cic du lieu diu cua md hinh bao gdm: • Du lieu ve dat dai (tdng cacbon, tdng nita, nitiate, sinh khdi nita, CO,, ) • Dii lieu ciy tidng (him lupng nito va cacbon frong dit tii phan huy thuc v|t) c Uu diim vd hgn chi ciia mo hinh l/u dilm: Md hinh la md hinh miln phi, phan mem cho md hinh dugc cung cap mien phi tien Internet, bao gdm hudng din sd dyng va hudng din cho ngudi mdi 'bit diu' rat ro rang va dl hilu dac biet l i cho ngudi mdi su dung [1], md hinh dugc danh gii rat chat che dua vao cac qua trinh sinh dia hda, md hinh cd tinh lmh ddng cao cd thi thay ddi dua vao diu vao dii lieu Hgn chi: Md hinh khdng dugc dinh gii cao khdng xem xSt su tuomg Tgp chi Khoa hgc Tdi nguyen vd Mot tru&ng -Sd 19- nam 2018 Nghiin ciru tic giua cic phin sinh thai can va thuy sinh, v i md hinh chi phan ticb danh gia theo nam 3.1.5 Mo hinh SUNDIAL (The Simulation of Nitrogen Dynamics In Arable Land) a Giai thieu chung ve mo hinh L i md hinh md phdng ddng luc hpc cua nito tiong dit tidng tipt SUNDIAL ket hgp kien thuc khoa hpc hien tai vS cic qui tiinh hip thu nita, v i tich hgp cac qua trinh de md phdng nhung gi xiy tiong dit Nd bao gdm cac mddun, mdi md-dun dai dien eho mdt cic quy trinh frao ddi nita chii yeu La mdt he thdng dilu khiSn theo menu eho phep cic chuyen gia ndng nghiep nhap chi tiet mdt ITnh vyc cy the hoac frang frai v i md phdng hap thu nita Cac qua tiinh lien quan dugc md t i bdi mdt tip hgp cac phuang tiinh sd khdng va phucmg tiinh bac nhat Viec bd sung mdt ca sd Nova dS tinh toin cic thdng sl cay tidng cho phep udc tinh cic thdng sd cho md phdng thd ciia md hinh mdi, biSu hien true quan cic biSu thuc dupc su dung tiong SUNDIAL, so sinh cic bilu thuc tham sd vdi cic ph6p thuc nghiem v i sang lpc cic thdng sd bing cich lap cac biSu thdc riSng biet cho dii liSu hoac bing each dieu chinh cic thong sd lap lai dl cai thien su phu hgp cua ket qui md phdng vdi phep nita cua dit v i cay tidng Cic ca sd tiong SUNDIAL de hien thi cic diu khic dudi hinh thuc dd hpa lim eho nd die biet hiiu ich cho viSc kiSm tia tic ddng cua cac chien luge quin ly khac frong chu ky nito tiong ndng nghiSp b Cdc du li$u ddu vao vd ddu cua mo hinh - Cdc du lieu ddu vdo cua mo hinh gom: • Dii lieu ve thdi tiet (Nhiet dp, dp am, lugng mua, su hoc hoi nude,, ) • Dii heu ve dat dai, dii liSu vS cay tidng (Ioai cay tidng trudc, loai ciy tidng hien tai, hip thu nita cua thuc vat, ning suit cay tidng, ) • Du lieu vl kit ciu dit v i quin ly ndng nghiSp (tudi tiSu, bdn phan, ) - Cdc dulieu ddu cua mo hinh gom: • Dii lieu dit dai (Tdng cacbon, sinh khdi cacbon, CO,, nito tdng, nito sinh khdi, nitiate, nitiate nita, amoni, tdng nita khoang, va du lupng cacbon) • Dir lieu cay tidng (ham lugng nita va cacbon tiong dat tu phan buy thuc vat) c U'u diem vd han chi cua mo hinh U'u diem: Md hinh niy tucmg ddi chat che vdi dp tin cay cao dya hoan toan vao cac qui trinh sinh dia hda Md hinh CO the phan tich tien pham vi nhd nhu ndng tiai, hay mdt canh ddng be Hgn chi: Ldi giii thich md hinh khd hieu gay khd khan cho ngudi su dyng De chay md huih, yeu ciu dir lieu diu vao ldn vao chi tiet 3.1.6 Mo hinh OVERSEER a Gioi thieu chung ve mo hinh La md hinh tinh toan v i udc tmh chit dinh dudng ttong mdt he thdng canh tic hieu qua va xic dinh rui ro ddi vdi cac tic ddng mdi trudng thdng qua mat chit dinh dudng, bao gdm rda tidi va phat thii KNK [5] Md hinh udc lugng phat thai mS-tan, nita oxide va cacbon dioxide (CO,) Md hinh cung cip phuang tien dS diSu tia cic phucmg in quin ly tiang tiai thay the de nang cao hi^u qua su dung chit dinh dudng dl tdi im hda sin xuit va giam nguy ca gay nhiing tic ddng xiu den mdi trudng Tgp chi Khoa hgc Tdi nguyin vd Mdi truang -Sd 19- ndm 2018 - 33 Nghien cth/ Md hinh boat ddng d quy md ndng frai, nhung ciing bao gdm cic khdi (nhdm cic bai cd gidn^ ve dia dilm, dat, va cic thdng sd quan ly) Md hinh theo doi sy chuySn ddng cua chat dinh dudng mdt khdi (tu cic khu vyc can kiet dSn cic khu tich tu nhu tiai tap trung), v i tiong mdt tiang tiai b Cdc da lieu ddu vdo vd ddu ciia mo hinh Cdc du lieu ddu vdo ciia mo hinh gom: • Du lieu vS dit dai (loai dit, pH, dp xdp, dp man, ham lugng NO^", NH,^, ), • Dir lieu vS thdi tiet (Nhiet dd, lupng mua, tdc dp gid, buc xa mat tidi, dp im) - Cdc da lieu ddu cua mo hinh gom: • Luang phit thii CH,, N , , CO,, c Ifu nhuac diem cua mo hinh Uu diSm: Ngudi dimg cd the dS dang tiep can v i sd dung, cd thS tii trye tiep mien phi td intemet, cd tai lieu hudng din va giai thich cu the timg budc thuc hien Md hinh dugc danh gia la kha chat che dya vao qua trinh sinh dia hda YSu ciu thdng sd v i bd dir lieu diu vao khdng ldn, cd thS sd dyng dl nghiSn cdu kich ban tiSn pham vi dia ly khic Nhuac diem: Md hinh niy khdng cd nhiSu lya chgn tiong phin tich sy bien ddi theo thdi gian, chi cd thi tinh theo dan vi nim 3.1.7 Mo NITROGENIUS hinh INITIATOR/ a Giai thiiu chung vi mo hinh INITIATOR li mdt md hinh cin bing nita dan gian dua tien cac mdi quan he tuyen tinh giiia cic ddng chay khic cua he thdng ndng nghiep [7] Bao gdm cic hing sd chuyin ddi tuyln tinh la mdt ham sd cua cic loai phin chudng, loai dit hoac che dp phin NITROGENIUS bao gom mdt he thdng md hinh md t i tit ci cic ddng nito chu ySu d mpt sd quy md khdng gian v i thdi gian lien quan dupc md phdng nhu mdt tid chai, bao gdm phat thii ammonia, nita oxit v i d nhiSm nude mat v i dit Muc dich eua NITROGENIUS la: Cai thien su hieu biet ve cac mdi quan he phde f£ip frong tinh hudng d nhiSm nita v i tim kiSm cac giii phip va chinh sach tdi uu cd the ngan ngua d nhiSm v i cic inh hudng cua nd [1] b Cdc da lieu ddu vdo vd ddu ciia mo hinh Cdc da lieu ddu vdo cua mo hinh gom: • Du lieu ve thdi tiet (Nhiet dp, am, lugng mua, sy bde hcd nude, ) • Dii liSu vl kSt ciu dat va quan Iy ndng nghiep (tudi tieu, bdn phin, ) - Cdc du lieu ddu ciia mo hinh gom: • Lugng phat thii CH,, NO^, CO,, NH3, NH,, • Tdng nita tiong nude ngim va nude mat, c Uu diim vd nhugfc diim mo hinh Uu diim: Md hinh niy cd cung cap tai lieu giii thich chi tilt va hudng dan cy thS cho cic budc thuc hien Md hinh dugc dinh gia cao ve su chit che dya vao cic qua trinh sinh dia hda Yeu cau v l bd du lieu diu vio khdng Idn, cd thih linh ddng cao, Nhuo'c diem: Chi cd lua chpn de tinh toan theo dem vi nam 3.1.8 Mo hinh ECOSYS a Giai thiiu chung vi mo hinh La mdt md hinh tmh toan dung dS md phdng qua tiinh van chuySn va tiao ddi nhiet, nude, cacbon, oxy, nita, photpho va cac chit ionic qua cic he thdng biu quySn-dat-cay tidng nhu li gidi ban tien v i vat lieu gdc cua dit li ranh gidi dudi Cd vai fro tiong viec Tap chi Khoa hgc Tdi nguyen vd Mdi tne&ng -So 19- nam 2018 Nghien cuu ho tig lap ke hoach eho cac tac ddng cua bin, thyc tiln su dung dat v i quin ly dat ddi vdi nang suit sa cip, chit lugng dat, khdng va cic ySu ciu tai nguyen lien quan (vl dy nhu nude, phan bdn) cua cac he sinh thii frSn nhu mdt phin ciia mpt sd chuang trinh nghien cdu qudc gia va qudc tS [9] nhiSu Phucmg phip chu ySu dupc su dung d Viet Nam van la thue hien theo hudng din cua IPCC Tuy nhiSn, da cd mpt sd nghiSn cdu su dimg md hinh DNDC, va ket qui tinh toan the hien su phu hgp vdi ket qui phin tich ciing nhu su phu hgp frong viec ap dung md hinh tai Viet Nam Hien md hinh DNDC da dupc kiSm nghiem va ap dung dS tinh toan phat thii KNK frong cac he canh tic Cdc du lieu ddu vdo ciia mo ndng nghiSp d cic qudc gia khic hinh gom: nhu My, Italy, Dice, phd biln nhat l i d • Dd lieu ve ciy tidng (loai, ngay, Vuang qudc Anh v i Trung Qudc [6] mat dp, ) Tai Vuang qudc Anh, DNDC da dupc • Dii lieu v l kit ciu dit v i quan ly diSu chinh dS cd thS tinh dugc phat thai giin tiep Ddi vdi Trung Qudc, DNDC ndng nghipp (tudi tiSu, bdn phan, ) - Cdc du liiu ddu ciia mo hinh gom: da dugc diSu ehinh dS xem xet thdng tin tu tat ci cac tinh khac • Lugng phat thii CH,, N , , Tai Viet Nam, nam 2013, Salas mdi CO,, chi dua dl xuit y tudng xiy dung hS c U'u diem va hgn che ciia mo hinh thdng giam sat KNK phit thai tu vung Uu diim: Md hinh dugc dng dung canh tic lua cua ViSt Nam su dyng md d quy md rdng, dS kiem tia anh hudng hinh DNDC [11] Trong Bio cao cap nh^t cua cac tinh chat dit hi thay ddi va cac hai nam mdt lin lin thd nhit cua Viet boat ddng quan ly doi vdi nhiet dp dat Nam cho Cdng udc Khung cua Lien hpp v i ham lupng nude, die biet la d cac he qudc vS biSn ddi bin (2014) edng nSu sinh thai dn ddi va can nhiet ddi Day la mpt sd phuang an giam nhe KNK frong md hinh dya hoin toan vio cac qui tirinh ndng nghiSp frong cd viee iing dung sinh dia hda, yeu ciu diu vio khdng ldn, md hinh DNDC dS udc tinh phat thii bd dii lieu dan giin Cd thS su dung md KNK tii lua nude [10] Nam 2014, Vien hinh de phan tich su bidn dpng theo cac Khoa hpc Ndng nghiSp Viet Nam phdi doti vi thdi gian khac v i tiSn pham hgp vdi Dai sd quin Na Uy tiiSn khai vi dia ly khac Md huih dS dang thyc hien de tai nghien cuu "Bien ddi hau va nhiing tic ddng den san xuat liia thich dng vdi cic lua chpn mdi tai Viet Nam: Thu nghiSm cac giai phip Hgn che Md hinh niy cung khdng tiSm nang ve thich iing va giim thilu" xem xet sy tucmg tie giua he sinh thai DS tai CO su dung md hinh DNDC va can v i he sinh thai thiiy sinh da tien hanh thyc dia lugng phit thii 3.2 Ddnh gid viic dp dung mo hinh KNK tien dit tidng lua nude tai 02 dia tinh todn phdt thdi KNK tir cdc hogt diem thude tinh Nam Dinh, diy li ea sd dong trot nong nghiep tgi de SO sinh dp chinh xac kSt qui cua md hinh so vdi cac sd lieu thuc te Ciing Viet Nam frong nam 2014, tie gia Nguyen Thanh Hien nay, viec sd dung md hinh de Tuin da xem xet nang ip dung md tinh toan/ kiem kS toin phit thai KNK hinh DNDC dl udc lugng lugng SOC tu cic boat dpng trdng tipt tiong ndng (cacbon hiru ca frong dat) d cic he canh nghiSp tai Vi^t Nam chua dugc i p dung b Cdc da li?u ddu vdo vd ddu ctia mo hinh Tgp chi Khoa hgc Tdi nguyen vd Mdi tru&ng -Sd 19 - ndm 2018 - 35 Nghien ciiu tic ndng nghiSp vung ddng bang ven bien tinh Quang Tri Myc dich cua nghiSn cuu niy la xem xet kha nang ap dyng md hinh DNDC dl udc lupng lupng SOC d cac he canh tic ndng nghiep vimg ddng bang ven biln tinh Quang Tri [12] 2.1 So sdnh mo hinh DNDC vd huong ddn cua IPCC de tinh todn phdt thdi KNK tir ITnh vuc nong nghiip (a) Md hinh DNDC ySu ciu mdt lupng ldn dii lieu diu vio d cip dia phuang so vdi thdng kS dan giin d muc dp qudc gia theo hudng dan cua phucmg phap IPCC (b) Md hinh DNDC phu thudc vao du lieu tugng hpc chat lugng cao nhu nhi?t dp v i im so vdi phucmg phap IPCC khdng cin du lieu tupng hpc (c) Md hinh DNDC phu thupc vao dii lieu ve ham lugng cacbon hiiu ca frong dit so vdi cich tiep can dem gian ma khdng cd loai dat hoac chi cd hai loai dit frong phucmg phip IPCC (d) Md hinh DNDC su dung nhilu gia dinh ve dpng eo thuc diy phit thii KNK tien mdi loai dit 3.2.2 So sdnh mo hinh DNDC vd cdc mo hinh khdc di tinh todn phdt thdi KNK tu linh vuc nong nghiep (a) Da sd cic md hinh (CASA, CANDY, SUNDIAL, DAISY, STONE, INITIATOR, ALU, Ex-Act, ) l i cac md hinh tinh, khdng cd nhilu lya chpn frong phan tich theo sy biln ddi theo thdi gian, chi co thS tinh theo dem vi nam Md hhih DNDC v i md hinh DAYCENTURY la md hinh ddng, cho phep tinh toan theo cac dan vi thdi gian khac nhu tii gid, cho din thing v i nam Nhu vay, su dyng DNDC cd thi tinh libit thii KNK theo tiing Do dd, kit qui md hinh se chinh xic hon _ (b) Md hinh DNDC li md hinh miSn phi, bao gdm hudng din su dung va hudng dan cho ngudi mdi 'bit diu' 36 - rit rd ring, chi tiet v i de hieu Trong do, mdt sd md htiih khic l i mit phi Mdt sl md hinh (CASA, CANDY) khdng cd tai HSu hudng din eu thi, Idi giii thich cho md hinh khd hieu khdng cd hudng din va ldi giai thich cy thi cho cic qui frinh frong md binh (c) Md hinh DNDC cd thi hieu chinh cic thdng sd tucmg quan tiong he sinh thai, rit chat che dya vio cic qua tiinh sinh dia hda, ed tinh linh ddng cao cd thS thay ddi dya vao dau vao du liSu Trong dd, mpt sd md hinh khac (CASA, CANDY, DAISY, ECOSYS, STONE, DAYCENTURY) khdng xem xet sy tucmg tic giira cic thinh phin sinh thii can va thuy sinh (d) Md hinh DNDC cd thS su dyng de tinh toan tien nhiSu pham vi dfa ly cd dp ldn khic Do do, DNDC cho phep dinh lupng him lupng cacbon tiong dit, tinh toin phit thii KNK d quy md vimg, dia phuang, hay mdt thua rudng (e) Md hinh DNDC ySu ciu sd lieu diu vao hgp ly, tuong ddi linh ddng v i cd thi thay ddi theo du lipu diu vio thu thip duac Trong dd, mdt sd md hinh khac (STONE, DAYCENTURY) yeu cau bd dii lieu dau vao ldn v i chi tiet, giy khd khan vipc thu thip Ngoii ra, md hinh DNDC dugc danh gia la phu hgp cho nghien cuu SOC, phit thii KNK d vung ndng nghiep nhiet ddi Ket luan Tdm lai, phucmg phip md hinh hda la mdt tiong nhung phuang phap can bin v i thiSt ylu, nhit dli vdi nhirng ngudi lam nghien cuu khoa hpc Phucmg phap niy da dua dSn ldi giii cho han^ loat van de quan tipng va thiet thuc ddi vdi c i ITnh vuc khoa hgc v i thyc te ddi sdng xa hdi Chinh vi vay, chung ta can phii nam chac v i ip dung linh ho^t phuang phap md hinh hda de cd thS phuc vu Tap chi Khoa hgc Tdi nguyen vd Moi tru&ng -Sd 19- ndm2018 Nghien ctiu cdng tac nghiSn cdu khoa hpc mdt each hieu qua va tdi uu nhit Viec tinh toin phit thii KNK su dung cac md hinh udc tinh thS hien mdt danh gii hgp ly v l phit thii KNK thyc tS tii dit ndng nghiSp mac du tinh chinh xie cin dugc nghien ciiu cai thien nham ting dd tin cay Theo hudng din cua IPCC nam 1996 khuyin khich cic Qudc gia lua chpn su dyng cic md hinh hoac phuang phip khic neu chung phin inh tdt cho timg qudc gia cu thS Cic md hinh dya tien qua trinh sinh thii (dugc coi la mpt phuang phip cip theo IPCC), cd the duge ip dyng dS udc tinh phit thii KNK tii dit ndng nghiep Mdt sd md hinh md t i frong bai bao ed thS dupc sd dung nhu mot phucmg phap thay the cho cac bien phap cip hoac cap cua IPCC neu cic md hinh cd thi dugc dilu ehinh cho phu hgp vdi dieu kien cu thd cua timg qudc gia v i ttmg khu vyc dia ly Bii bao niy khdng dua mdt ket luan ve md hinh nio li tdt nhit dS tinh toin phit thai KNK trye tiep v i giin tiSp tii ndng ngtiiSji Tuy nhien, nhiing danh gii vS uu diSm v i ban chS cda cac md hinh se giup ngudi su cd the lua chpn theo muc dich nghien cdu ciing nhu ca sd dii lieu hien cd v i thuc trang dia ly cua timg khu vuc ap dung Vdi dilu kiSn Viet Nam, ket qui nghiSn cuu thi hien viec sd dung md hinh DNDC dl tinli toan phit thii KNK tii cac boat ddng ndng nghiSp la lua chgn tdi uu tiong thdi diSm hien [3) Gilttap, D.L., C Li, and S, Saggar (2010) DNDC: A process-based model of greenhouse gasfluxesjrom agriailtitral soils Agriculture, ecosystem& environment [4] Hoang Nggc Han, Nguyln Van Tai, Nguyen Tung Lim (2014) Cac ngudn phdt thdi vd dinh hu&ng gidm phdt thdi nhd kinh T^p chi Moi tnrdng [5] Li, C, (2000) Modeling trace gas emissionsfivmagricultural ecosystems.'H\An'SrL\ Cycling in Agroecosystems, p 259-276 [6] Li, C, (2009) Users Guide for the DNDC Model (version 9.3) Institute for the Study of Earth, Oceans, and Space, University of New Hampshire, Durham, NH [7] Paustian, K., N Ravindranath, and A van Amstel (2006) IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories [8] Pott:er, Christopher S., James T, Randerson, Christopher B, Field, PamelaA, Matson, Peter M Vitousek, Harold A, Mooney, Steven A Klooster (1993) Terrestrial ecosystem production: a process model based on global satelliteand surface data Global Biogeochem [9] Shaffer, M.L, L Ma, and S Hansen., (2001) Modeling carbon and nitrogen dynamics for soil management [10] Bp Tai Nguyen va Mdi tnrdng (2016) Kick bdn bien doi hgu vd nuac bienddngcho Viet Nam.YL^'^oi [11], NguySn Van Thang, Nguyln Trpng Higu (2010) Biin ddi hgu vd tdc dgng din Vi^t Nam Vien Khoa hpc Khi tupng Thuy van va Moi tnidng, Ha Npi [12] NguySn Thanh Tuan, Nguyen Xuan Hii, Trin Van Y (2014) Khd ndng TAI LIEU THAM KHAO dp dung mo hinh DNDC (Denitrification [1] De Vnes, W., et al., (2003) Decomposition) xdc dinh lugng Cacbon hiiu Uncertainties in the fate of nitrogen IL A ca ddt a cdc hi sinh thdi ndng nghiip quantitative assessment of the uncertainties ddng bdng ven biin tinh Qudng Tri Tap chi in major nitrogen fluxes in the Netherlands Khoa hpc DHQGHN: Cac Khoa hpc Trai dit Nutrient Cycling in Agroecosystems, vi Mdi trudng Tap 30, Sl 3,37 - 48 [2] Franko, U,, B Oelschlagel, and S BBT nhan bii; 12/02/2018; Phin bien Schenk (1995) Simulation of temperature-, xong: 23/02/2018 water-and nitrogen dynamics using the model CANDY Ecological Modelling Tap chi Khoa hgc Tdi nguyin vd Mdi truang - Sd 19 - ndm 2018 37 ... iien quan dSn Tgp chi Khoa hgc Tdi nguyin vd Mdi tru&ng -So 19- ndm 2018 Nghien cOu he thdng ndng nghiSp v i cic co sd can thiet cho viec quan ly du lieu: Tinh chit cua dit, dil lieu vl ban va quan. .. trudng cay tiong dugc md phdng bdi qua tirinh tich dn, quang hgp, su hap thu dam va nude theo timg bude thdi gian hang ngiy Cic qua trinh quang hgp, hd hap, phan bd cacbon, nude va hap thu nita... thdi gian lien quan dupc md phdng nhu mdt tid chai, bao gdm phat thii ammonia, nita oxit v i d nhiSm nude mat v i dit Muc dich eua NITROGENIUS la: Cai thien su hieu biet ve cac mdi quan he phde