/> Nghidn ctifu & Trao doi LOl iCH KINH TE CAC D y AN THUY DIEN VU''''A VA NHO O LAO CAI THAM GIA CO CHE PHAT TRIEN SACH KS Le Nguyen Tu''''dng, KS Vu''''ang Xuan Hoa Vien Khoa hoc Khi tugng Thuy van va Mdi tr[.]
/> Nghidn ctifu & Trao doi LOl iCH KINH TE CAC D y AN THUY DIEN VU'A VA NHO O LAO CAI THAM GIA CO CHE PHAT TRIEN SACH KS Le Nguyen Tu'dng, KS Vu'ang Xuan Hoa - Vien Khoa hoc Khi tugng Thuy van va Mdi trudng Goran Lifwenborg - Chuyen gia dy an cua Vien hgp tae vdi DANIDA v l thuy dien vu'a va nhd D ay Id mpt nhiing nghien ciru thue hien khudn khd du dn "Lgi ich eua thich nghi vdi biin ddi hdu tir eae nha may thuy dien vira va nhd ddng bd vdi phdt triin ndng thdn" Muc tieu la ddnh gid eae Igi ich eita eae nha may thuy dien vira vd nhd duge quy hoach d Ldo Cai bdi cdnh biin dii hau, dea khia canh giam nhe biin ddi hau va thich irng Trong nghien eiru da xem xet danh gid igi ich cua thiiy dien vira va nhd d Lao Cai nhu cae du dn giam nhe biin ddi hdu thdng qua tinh todn tiim ndng giam nha kinh eita he thing ndy Tiim ndng gidm nhd kinh duge tinh todn tren ea sd thay thi he thing thuy dien a Ldo Cai bdng cdc nhd mdy nhiet dien Kich ban phat triln cac nha may thuy dien viFa quy hoach, dd mdt s l dang qua trinh xay va nho & Lao Cai dung, mpt s l dang giai doan thilt k l , m6t s l D l danh gia eae Igi ieh giam nhe biln ddi hau va tilm nang giam khf nha kfnh cua he thong thuy dien va Igi ich xay dyng cac du an ca c h l phat triln sach (CDM), nghien cu'u da xem xet he thing cae nha may thuy dien vu'a va nhd d Lao Cai dudi cac kjch ban phat triln khae 116 dy an nha may thuy dien vu'a va nhd d Lao Cai da duge da dugc dang ky va mpt sd chl mdi dugc quy hoach kjch ban phat triln dugc gia thilt nhu trinh bay bang dudi day dya tren sa d l quy hoach cua Sd Cdng nghiep tinh Lao Cai va da duge Bd Cdng nghiep, la Bd Cdng Thugng phe duyet da duge xem xet lam ca sd tfnh toan Ngoai eung cd xet d i n cac d i l u kien cua b i l n doi khf hau Bang Cac kich ban phat trien nha may thuy dien & tinh Lao Cai Kich ban Cac kjch ban Sa'duf an Tong c6ng suS't thiet ke'MW T6ng cong sua't hoat dong M W Dang ton tai + dang xay 26 396,8 67,9 T6ng dien nang GVi'h/year 1662,1 43 551,3 101,5 2290,4 61 738,6 146,8 3134,2 121 928,6 199,8 3990,5 dij'ng Kich ban + du" an dang giai doan thiet ke Kich ban -i- cac du" an da du'dc dang ki Kich ban -i- cac drf an mdi du'dc quy hoach Hieu qua cua giam tac dong cua biln ddi khac phai thay t h i thuy dien de dap Crng cho nhu hau toan c l u giam phat thai nha kinh c i u nang lugng cang eao tuang lai, hoac N l u cac dy an thuy dien da duge quy hoach phai nhap dien tCp Trung Q u i c hoac tu' ludi dien khdng dugc thye hien thi cac ngudn nang lugng qudc gia Tren ea sd nhO'ng xem xet tfnh kha thi va Phan bien: TS Tran Hong Thai 32 Tap chi Khi tifrfng Thuy van * Thang 2/2009 v' Nghien cufu & Trao doi thye t l , cac nha may thuy dien vua va nhd d Lao Cai dugc gia thilt la se thay thi bdi eae nha may nhiet dien chay than vdi cac ly sau: (i) Theo sa dd Quy hoach Phat triln Dien VI (PDP), viee md rdng he thong nha may nhiet dien d phia blc la eae nha may nhiet dien chay than; (ii) Tit ea cac dy an thuy dien da duge quy hoach vdi tru' lugng ed han va cae nha may nhiet dien chay bing than se san xuit dien de cung cip cho tai trpng eg ban eua he thing dien nang Cac nha may nhiet dien chay than se sinh nha kfnh Sy phat thai khf nha kinh tu cae nha may nhiet dien chay than duge d l cap din nghien CLPU dua theo cac gia tri sau day: Bang Phat thai nha kinh tw cac nha may nhiet dien chay than C02 TS'n/GWh CH4 TS'nyOVi^h CH4 / CO2 Tifcfng difcfng N,0 Xa'n/GWh N2O/ CO2 TuTofng dufoTng 1050 72 23 72 296 Tong nha kfnh (GHG) TS'n/GWh 1073 Nguin: v\/ww.carma.org vd [7] Lugng nhd kinh han chi duge hdng nam duge ddnh gid eho tirng kjeh ban phdt triin khdc nhau, niu ede du dn thiiy dien vu'a vd nhd da quy hoach dugc thuc hien: Bang Lwang KNK giam hang nam cho cac kich ban phat trien khac Kjch ban Cac kich ban Dang ton tai -1- dang xay difng Kich ban -1- duf an dang giai doan thiet ke Kich ban -1- cac dif an da difdc dang ki Kich ban + cac dif an du'dc quy hoach So'dif an Td'ng c6ng sua't thie't ke' (MW) Te'ngdien nang GWh/nam Tong GHG giam Trieu ta'n/nam 26 396,8 1662,1 1,78 43 551,3 2290,4 2,46 61 738,6 3134,2 3,36 121 928,6 3990,5 4,28 Danh gia lu'Cfng phat thai khf nha kinh tie cac hd chira cua cac dip an thuy dien vira va nho da du'O'C quy hoach "nhiet dp i m , kh6" dugc dua dudi day: Dya tren sd lieu v l cac nha may thuy dien vu'a va nhd d Lao Cai, dien tich hd chu'a trung binh la 0, 21 Da cd tranh luan v l kha nang thai nha kinh km^ tuang u'ng vdi 21 Theo bang 2, tong phat nhu CO2 va CH4 tu' cae h i chu'a Cae nghien cu'u thai nha kfnh tu' cac hd chu'a cd the dugc danh v l van d l edn bj bd lu'ng Trong nghien CLPU gia nhu bang dudi day cho tu'ng kjch ban phat trien da tiln hanh khao sat eho cae dy an thuy dien vO'a khac vdi gia thilt la dien tich trung binh cua ho va nhd da quy hoach d Lao Cai Tfnh phat thai khf chu'a la 21 ha: nha kfnh tu cac h i chCra dugc dua tren eae gia tri So sanh vdi Bang 1, phat thai nha kinh tu' cac trinh bay phu luc va eua Hudng din eua h i chCfa hien tai chl khoang 0,2% so vdi lugng Ban lien Chfnh phu v l Biln doi khf hau (IPCC) 2006 nha kfnh tO' cae nha may nhiet dien dung than, dd nhu la gia tri trung binh eho "nhiet dp Im, im" va cd thi bd qua Tap Chi Khi tifgfng Thuy van * Thang 2/2009 33 Nghidn cufu & Trao doi Bang Phat thai nha kinh tir cac ho chCra Khi Phat thai kg/ha/ngay CO2 6,65 CH4 0,1 CH4/CO2 tu'dng difdng 23 8,95 Tong CO2 Bang Phat thai KNK hang nam tir ho chCra theo cac kich ban khac Kich ban Cac kjch ban Dang ton tai + dang xay dirtig Kich ban + dif an dang giai doan thiet ke' Kich ban + cac dif an da du'dc dang kl Kich ban + cac dif an mdi du'dc quy hoach So'dif an Dien tich ho chu'a trung binh (ha) Tdng dien tich ho chifa (ha) Tdng phat thai khf nha kinh Ta'n/nam 26 21 546 1800 43 21 903 3000 61 21 1281 4200 121 21 2541 8300 Ap dung cho co" che phat triln sach Quang Nam vdi cdng s u i t thilt k l la 156 MW, Ngan hang Phat trien Chau A (ADB) tai trg Nhan td a Tong quan phat thai n i n ap dung cho d y an thuy dien Sdng Cae dy an phat triln sach la nhung dy an thuy dien d Lao Cai dugc d l x u i t dya tren v i n d l lien quan sau day: (1) Nhan t l phat thai n i n , ma ehCrng chl cacbon dya vao dd d l tfnh la su dung cae nha may nhiet dien than ehLP khdng SLK dung n i n la phat thai CO2 cua cae nha may dien n i l vdi he thing nhu Bung la 588 t i n CO2 /GWh, va nhan t l phat thai cOng dugc ap dung nghien cu-u Gia tri g i n gilng vdi nhan t l phat thai n i n 598 t i n CO2 /GWh CDM da duge phe duyet ap dung cho dy an phuc hIi Tram thuy dien Song Muc, vdi cdng hien nay; (2) Cae du an ed t h i khdng cd Igi ich v l suit thilt k l MW, d tinh Thanh Hda mat tai chinh khdng quan tam den chCrng ehl c Bo sung cacbon nhung chung se ed Igi ich tai chinh n l u tham gia ea e h l phat triln sach (Igi fch bo sung); (3) Nhung d i l u kien bo sung dugc trinh bay Mat dd nang lugng, dugc xae djnh bang c6ng s u i t "Cdng cu de chCrng minh va danh gia bo sung" va lap may theo W, phan chia theo dien tfch ngap cua phan tich giai thich phat thai khf nha kinh nhan tao eae h i chu'a, neu cao han lOW/m^, lugng phat thai gay bdi eae nguon nhu t h i nao khdng cd hoat nha kfnh tu cac h i ehCra ed t h i dugc bd qua ddng cua cae d y an da duge de x u l t va mCre cd t h i b Nhan to phat thai nen giam so vdi chung D i l u dd cd lien quan d i n mdt nhu'ng d i l u kien sau: (1) Phan tich d i u tu d l Co e h l phat trien sach hien dang duge chuan bj ap dung eho Dy an thuy dien Sdng Bung d tinh 34 ehu'ng minh ring cae dy an da dugc d l x u i t la cd gia tri kinh t l hoac tai ehfnh nhung it h i p d i n han Tap Chi Khi tu'o'ng Thuy van * Thang 2/2009 /?• Nghien cufu & Trao doi n l u thilu Igi nhuan tCr viec ban chCrng ehl giam phat Thdi gian xay dung la 2, nam, vdi ehi phi phan thai (CERs); (2) Phan tfch cae can trd d l ehu'ng b l la 30% cho nam d i u tien, 50% eho nam thu* va minh ring eae d y an da dugc d l x u l t ddi mat vdi 20% edn lai eho nCpa nam c u l i ; Chi phi thay t h i thilt nhung trd ngai (i) Can trd viee thue hien cac dang bj sau 30 nam la 20%) eua chi phf xay dung; Chi phi dy an da dugc d l x u i t va (ii) khdng can trd t i i thilu hoat ddng va tri la 1,5%) eua tong ehi phi xay n l u tham gia CDM; (3) Trong ca e h l phat triln sach dung; Khoang thdi gian djnh gia la 40 nam; Nang ap dung cho du an thuy dien Sdng Bung 4, dy an lugng khoang 4,4 US cent/kWh theo gia biln dya vao WACC (Weighted Average Cost of Capital), eho ngudi tieu thu tCf cac nha san x u i t dien ddc lap; da khdng ed Igi ieh tai chfnh khdng tinh d i n Igi Hoan v i n eho nha phat triln la 12%; 70% cua chi phf xay dyng va chilt khiu qua trinh xay dung nhuan ca c h l c h l phat triln sach (IDC), tl le chilt k h i u la 12%, se dugc tinh bing lai cf Phan tfch tai chinh suit cho vay tai cae ngan hang thuang mai vdi lai De xae djnh mdt each rd rang 116 d u an thuy suit 6% cho ki han 10 nam thdi gian xay dyng la (2, dien ed dap Crng cac chl s l d i u tu tren hay khdng, nam); Thue thu nhap la 28% theo Igi nhuan; T h u l chu d i u t u phai tinh toan FIRR (Financial Internal tai nguyen la 2%, 700 VND /kWh tuang duang Rate of Return) vdi phuang an cd va khdng ap dung 875USD/GWh; Nhan td phat thai n i n la 588 tan CDM, dua tren nhung gia thilt sau day: C02 /GWh; Gia tin dung cacbon 10 USD / t i n Bang Chi phi dau tw trung binh (WACC) dwac tinh nhw sau: Chi phi tai chfnh that % Sau dieu chinh cho thue thu nhap % Chia se tai chfnh % Trong so'chi phi % Lai sua't cho vay Ngan hang nifdc 4,32 70+IDC 3.23 Chi phi 12 12 30 IVIyc WACC 3.6 6.52 Dua vao k i t qua trinh bay danh muc eae duge cdng nhan, vdi cdng s u i t thilt k l bo sung la nha may thuy dien, s l cae dy an d i u tu ed gia 492, MWva dien nang san x u i t trung binh la 2085 tri tai chfnh su' dung cac chl sd tren va gia thilt la GWh, va dd Igi nhuan cd dugc cd anh hudng hoan von thap nhit 12% eho cac nha d i u tu ed xet tich eye tdi su phat triln cua eae d y an thuy dien d i n va khdng xet d i n lgi nhuan CDM vu'a va nhd d Lao Cai Vdi thj trudng khdng on djnh K i t qua tinh toan cho thiy ehl khoang 35 (30%)) d Viet Nam hien tai, cae phan tich tai chinh va cac eua cac dy an da quy hoach, vdi tong cdng s u i t k i t qua tren d n phai dugc tinh toan lai mdt each t h i l t k l la 223 MW (25%) va dien nang san x u l t d n than trung binh la 1,044 GWh (27%), la ed gia tri tai chfnh d Lu'gng nha kinh giam du'gc khdng kem theo lgi nhuan CDM, so sanh vdi 80 (69%) cac du an ma tong cdng suit thilt k l 3.128 Nhu tren, lugng nha kinh giam dugc hang GWh (80%) n l u bao g i m ca Igi nhuan CDM Cd t h i nam cd the dugc danh gia eho cae kjch ban dugc k i t luan rang bo sung 55 dy an thuy dien da quy xae djnh, n l u cac dy an ed gia tri kinh t l vdi Igi hoach se cd gia tri tai chfnh n l u Igi nhuan CDM nhuan CDM dugc thue hien: Tap Chi Khi tifgfng Thuy van * Thang 2/2009 35 Nghien cu'u & Trao doi Bang Lwang KNK giam dwac hang nam theo cac kich ban eua cac dw an co gia tri kinh te v&i lai nhuan CDM Kich ban 23 Tong cong sua't thie't ke' IVIW 380,0 Tong dien nang GWh/nam 1598,2 Tong giam thai GHG Trieu t§'n/nam 1,71 33 464,2 1935,2 2,08 48 600,6 2578,4 2,77 80 739,2 3219,1 3,45 SodLf an Dac diem Dang ton tai + dang xay difng Kich ban + dir an dang giai doan thie't ke Kich ban + cac diT an da difOc dang kl Kich ban + cac dU an m6i difcJc quy hoach Phat thai nha kinh hang nam la 3, trieu tin ed the giam dugc tit ca 80 dy an thuy dien cd gia tri kinh t l (ca Igi fch CDM) d tmh Lao Cai duge thye hien vdi gia thilt la 10 USD /tin eho cac kjeh ban khac nhau: Bang Chwng chl CDM cua cac dw an thuy dien vira va nho da dwac quy hoach a Lao Cai Kich ban Dac diem Dang ton tai + dang xay d\Ing Kich ban + di/ an dang giai doan thie't ke' Kich ban + cac duf an da di/dc dang ki Kich ban + cac dif an chifa difdc khai thac Sodtf an Tong cong sua't thie't ke'MW Tong dien nang GWh/nam 15 275,6 1154,8 long giam thai GHG Trieu ta'n/nam 1,24 24 353,4 1465,1 1,57 3,3 27 398,2 1663,4 1,78 5,4 45 492,8 2085,2 2,24 10,0 *Chung chi CDM khdng duge dp dung cho cdc du dn dang tin tai vd dang xdy dung Phat thai GHG hang nam la 2, 24 trieu tin cd thi tranh dugc nlu eae du an cd gia tri kinh t l khdng kem theo Igi nhuan CDM dugc thye hien TCrc la cd thi giam 1, 21 trieu tin/nam so sanh vdi trudng hgp 80 du an cd gia tri kinh t l vdi Igi nhuan CDM dugc thye hien Kit luan - Lugng nha kinh hang nam la 4, 28 trieu tin cd the dugc giam tit ca 116 dy an thuy dien vua va nhd da dugc quy hoach d tinh Lao Cai dugc thuc 36 Chiing chl CDM Trieu USD/nam 0* hien khdng kem theo dieu kien nao; Phat thai nha kinh tu cac hd chCpa chi chilm khoang 0,2% eua tong lugng nha kinh giam duge tu cac nha may nhiet dien va ed t h i bd qua - Cae dy an se khdng ed hieu qua v l mat tai ehfnh nlu khdng cd tin dung cacbon nhung se cd t h i cd hieu qua vdi Igi nhuan CDM (bl sung vao) Cac phan tich tai chfnh chi ring chl 35 (30%) cua eae dy an da duge quy hoach vdi tong cdng suit thilt k l 223 MW va dien nang san xuit trung binh hang nam la 1044 GWh ed thi khdng kha thi v l tai chinh nlu khdng ed lgi nhuan CDM, so sanh vdi 80 (69%o) dy an cdng suit thilt k l 715, MW va dien nang san xult trung binh hang nam la 3128 GWh nlu bao gdm Igi nhuan CDM Tap Chi Khi tu'tfng Thuy van * Thang 2/2009 - Lygng nha kfnh giam dugc hang nam theo tung kjch ban phat trien khac gdm va khdng bao gim Igi nhuan CDM dugc tinh la 3, 45 trieu tin cd thi giam dugc nlu tit ea 85 du an kha thi v l kinh Nghidn cuTu & Trao dd'i t l duge thye hien (vdi Igi nhuan CDM), so sanh vdi 2, 24 trieu tin nlu 45 dy an thuy dien kha thi v l kinh t l duge thye hien (khdng ed CDM), khae khoang 1,21 trieu tin/nam Tai lieu tham khao Bao edo tdm tdt: Quy hoach cdc luu vuc sdng tinh Lao Cai (Giai doan 2006 - 2015); Bp Ndng nghiep vd Phdt triin Ndng thdn - Vien Quy hoach Thuy Igi Quy hoach phdt thin dien luc tinh Ldo Cai giai doan 2006 - 2010 cd xet din 2015; Oy ban nhdn ddn tinh Lao Cai - Sd Cdng nghiep Ldo Cai Bdo edo thuyit minh ehung: Du dn Quy hoach khai thdc thuy dien vu'a va nhd tinh Ldo Cai; Bd Ndng nghiep vd Phdt triin Ndng thdn - Cdng ty xdy dung vd chuyin giao cdng nghe thuy Igi - Vien Khoa hoc Thuy Igi Quy hoach phdt triin cdng nghiep - tiiu thu cdng nghiep tinh Ldo Cai giai doan din nam 2015; Oy ban nhdn ddn tinh Lao Cai - Sd Cdng nghiep Bdo cdo he thing chi tieu kinh ti - xa hdi ehu yiu ndm 2006 tinh Lao Cai, UBND tinh Ldo Cai Du dn" Lgi ich cua thich nghi vol biin ddi hau tu' ede nhd mdy thuy dien vira va nhd ding bp vdi phdt triin ndng thdn", Bdo edo ting kit, 8/2008 Economics of GHG Limitation, IMH-UNEP-RISO, 19 Nilsson, M (2007) Valuation of some environmental costs within the GMS Energy Sector Strategy SEI report to the Asian Development Bank Tap chi Khi tufofng Thuy van * Thang 2/2009 37 ... n l u tham gia CDM; (3) Trong ca e h l phat triln sach dung; Khoang thdi gian djnh gia la 40 nam; Nang ap dung cho du an thuy dien Sdng Bung 4, dy an lugng khoang 4,4 US cent/kWh theo gia biln... (27%), la ed gia tri tai chfnh d Lu''gng nha kinh giam du''gc khdng kem theo lgi nhuan CDM, so sanh vdi 80 (69%) cac du an ma tong cdng suit thilt k l 3.128 Nhu tren, lugng nha kinh giam dugc hang... tranh dugc nlu eae du an cd gia tri kinh t l khdng kem theo Igi nhuan CDM dugc thye hien TCrc la cd thi giam 1, 21 trieu tin/nam so sanh vdi trudng hgp 80 du an cd gia tri kinh t l vdi Igi nhuan CDM