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UAM HAmBkC HAM DAU MO VA KHI DOT CUA TRUNG DONG VA CHAU PHI TRU^ LirONG, KHA NANG KHAI THAC VA TIEU THU Pham Thi Kim Hue* Trong nhirng nam gan day, nhu eau nang lugng tren tgan the gidi ngay cang gia[.]
UAM-HAmBkC-HAM DAU MO VA KHI DOT CUA TRUNG DONG VA CHAU PHI: TRU^ LirONG, KHA NANG KHAI THAC VA TIEU THU Pham Thi Kim Hue* T rong nhirng nam gan day, nhu eau nang lugng tren tgan the gidi cang gia tang, khien ngudn nang lugng thiet yeu la dau md va ddt cang trd nen khan hiem Trung Ddng va chau Phi dugc biet den la nhiing khu vue tiem nang ve ngudn nang lugng Vay trii lugng ve dau md va ddt tai chau Phi va Trung Ddng hien sao? Kha nang san xuat va mirc tieu thu dau md va ddt cua hai khu vuc nhu the nao? Bai viet sau day se gdp phan giai dap nhiing eau hdi tren I T R C LU'OfNG DAU M VA KHI D T TAI TRUNG DONG VA CHAU PHI Trung Ddng va chau Phi hien dang nam tay ngudn nang lugng dau md quy gia Theg danh gia eua nhieu tg chirc nang lugng qudc te, dac biet la nhan dinh mdi day nhat ciia Ta chire Dau md va Khi det The gidi, vdi tru lugng 727,314 ty thiing dau md va 2,591,653 Tcf (Tef la don vi dot, tinh bang tneu trieu phit khoi) dot tinh den 01/01/2009, Tmng Ddng la khu vuc ed trir lugng dau md va dot ldn nhat the gidi, trir lugng dau md eiia Trung Ddng chiem hon 50% tong trii- lugng dau md the gidi, cdn " Vien Nghien cuu Chau Phi va Trung Dong U trii lugng ddt eua Trung Ddng eiing xap xi gan Y2 tdng trii lugng ddt the gidi, Theo danh gia thi chau Phi cd trii lugng dau md dirng thir tu tren the, vdi 117,064 ty thiing, chiem 10% tdng trir lugng dau md the gidi, edn trii lugng ddt cua chau Phi thi xep d vi tri thir ba tren the gidi sau khu vuc Trung Ddng va Trung A vdi 494,078 Tcf Xet ve trii- luang ddu liea, nhdm "top ten" ed trii lugng dau md ldn nhat eua Trung Ddng va chau Phi bao gdm cae nude: Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, UAE, Libya, Nigeria, Algeria, Angola, Sudan, Trong dd, Saudi Arabia la nude ed trii lugng dau md khdng nhiing ldn nhat khu vuc Trung Ddng ma cdn ldn nhat the gidi vdi 266,710 ty thimg, chiem khoang 1/5 tdng trii lugng dau md the gidi Vi tri thir ba va thir tu, thii nam danh saeh cac nude ed trii lugng dau md ldn tren the gidi deu thude ve cac nude Trung Ddng Dd la Iran - nude cd trii lugng dau md ldn thir ba tren the gidi sau Saudi Arabia va Canada, rdi den Iraq vdi trir lugng dau md la 115 ty thimg, Kuwait d vi tri thir nam vdi trir lugng dau md la 104 ty thiing UAE xep d vi tri thir bay ve trtr lugng dau md tren the gidi Cac nude chau Phi nhu Libya va Nigeria cung la nhiing nude cd trii Tap chi nghien cuu CHAU PHI & TRUNG DONG so 02 (66) thang 2/201 ] Pham Thi Kim Hue Dau md va khf ddt ciia Trung Ddng lugng dau md ldn tren the gidi ehiem khoang 3,4% va % tong trir lugng dau md the gidi, dugc xep d vi tri thii va 10 theo danh gia ciia To chiic Dau md va Khi dot The gidi 01/01/2009 Ndi den cae gieng dau md ed trii lugng ldn d Trung Ddng va chau Phi khdng the khdng ke den vimg Ghawar vdi dien tich rdng 1.260 dam nam lanh tho Saudi Arabia Day la vimg cd trii lugng dau md ldn nhat the gidi ude tinh khoang 70 ty thiing Chi rieng viing Ghawar cua Saudi Arabia ed trii lugng dau md ldn hon tong trii lugng dau md cua 06 qudc gia khae cdng lai Tiep dd la khu vue Burgan rdng ldn nam phia Nam phd Kuwait bao gdm cac vimg Burgan, Magwa va Admadi, vdi trir lugng gan 70 ty thiing, day dugc coi la khu vue cd trii lugng dau md ldn thir hai tren the gidi Sau dd la den Safaniya - vimg ed trir lugng dau md ldn thir ba tren the gidi va vimg Kurais ciing la mdt nhiing viing cd trir lugng dau md ldn tren the gidi Ca hai viing deu nam ngoai khoi Saudi Arabia Cae viing cd trir lugng dau md ldn eua Iran deu nam d Tay Nam Khuzestan gan bien gidi vdi Iraq Hien nay, Iran ed 40 viing vdi trii lugng dau md ldn, cd 27 viing ndi dia va 13 viing d ngoai khoi Cac vung ed tru" lugng dau md chinh ciia Iraq deu tap trung d phia Deng Nam cua dat nude tao mdt vanh dai vdi 05 viing cd trir lugng dau md ldn, trung binh hon ty thiing/viing va 22 viing cd trir lugng dau md it hon, trung binh hon ty thiing/viing Trii lugng cua cae viing chiem kheang tir 70%) den 80%) tong trii lugng dau md eua Iraq, UAE gdm tieu qudc dd Abu Dhabi la tieu vuong ed trir lugng dau md ldn nhat qudc gia Hdi giao vdi trii lugng 92,2 ty thimg dau, ke tiep la tieu quoc Dubai vdi trir lugng dau md ty thimg, Sharjah: 1,5 ty thimg dau, va Ras al Khaimad cd trii lugng it hon khoang 100 trieu thiing, Nhin ehung, cae viing cd cac gieng dau md vdi trii lugng ldn eua khu vuc Trung Ddng deu nam gan dudng bien gidi giiia cac nude, day ciing ehinh la nguyen nhan khien khu vuc Trung Ddng trd diem ndng noi tranh chap ngudn nang lugng quy hiem giiia eae nude khu vuc, O chau Phi, cae vimg cd trii lugng dau md ldn deu tap trung d Bae Phi, Dang ke nhat la viing bac va nam Hassi Messaaud ciia Algeria ed trir lugng khoang tren 300 trieu thung, Ngoai ra, vdi trii lugng dau md khoang tir 160 trieu thiing den 300 trieu thiing trai rdng d nhiing viing khae cua Algeria, Angola, Ai Cap, Libya, Morocco, Nigeria va Tunisia Theo ngudn dii lieu eiia Hdi ddng Khoa hge Dia ly va Mintek, thi dd la viing Rhourde El Baguel, Nam Hassi Berkin, Zarzan Tine va Edj'leh ciia Algeria; viing El Morgan va viing dau lua thang eua Ai Cap, viing Zelten, Waha, Amal, Serir, Gialo Va Dahra cua Libya; viing Meskalia eua Morocco; viing Usan, Ukot, Aparo, Agabami, Bonga Sw va Jones Creek eua Nigeria; Vimg El Borma cua Tunisia Xet ve trii: luang dot, thi thir hang bang xep loai cac nude ed trir lugng ddt ldn nhat tren the gidi cd nhiing thay doi, khdng gidng vi tri bang xep hang cac nude ed trii lugng dau md ldn nhat tren the gidi Neu nhu xet ve trii lugng dau md thi Saudi Arabia xep d vi tri top ten tren the gidi, song xet ve trii lugng ddt thi Saudi Arabia chi xep d vi tri thir vdi trir lugng ddt ude tinh khoang 258 Tef Vdi trir lugng ddt 991,6 Tcf, Iran vuon len vi tri thir hai tren the gidi sau Nga Vi tri thir ba thugc ve Qatar vdi trii lugng dot 890 Tcf chiem khoang 15%) tdng trir lugng ddt Tap chi nghien cuu CHAU PHI & TRUNG DONG so 02 (66) thang 2/2011 n Pham Thi Kim Hue Dau md va khf dot ciia Trung^go^g; toan the gidi, song day la quoc gia xuat khau hda long (LNG) ldn nhat tren the gidi Trong bang xep hang cac nude cd trii luong dot ldn nhat tren the gidi, vi tri thir bay va thir chin thude ve qudc gia chau Phi la Nigeria vdi trii lugng la 184,2 Tef va Algeria vdi trir lugng la 159 Tcf, song Nigeria la nude cd trii lugng ddt ldn nhat chau Phi ed the dap irng dii ngudn eung eho eae nude thugc khu vuc Tay Phi, xep thir hang thir hai tai khu vuc la Algeria Dirng d vi tri thir ba ve trii lugng ddt la Ai Cap Mac dii dugc xep nude cd trii lugng dau md ldn nhat tren the gidi, song trii lugng ddt ciia Kuwait lai d mirc khiem tdn khoang 63 Tcf, cdn tru: lugng ddt cua Iraq thi dudng nhu khdng dugc nhae den La nude cd trii lugng ddt ldn thir tren the gidi, cac viing cd trii lugng ddt ldn cua Iran bao gdm Nam va Bac Pars, Kish, va Kangan-Nar Ben canh dd, hon 1/3 trir lugng ddt cua Iran nam rai rac d cae viing khac va chua dugc khai thac Phan ldn trii lugng ddt ciia Qatar nam d ngoai khoi rdng ldn viing phia bac, day la viing cd trir lugng dot nam rai rac ngoai khoi ldn nhat tren the gidi, vdi trir lugng dugc phat hien vao khoang 450 Tcf Tai Saudi Arabia, cac khu vuc cd trir lugng ddt ldn deu la nhu-ng khu vue cd trir lugng dau md ldn ciia qudc gia Trung Ddng 57% trir lugng ddt ciia Saudi Arabia tap trung tai viing Ghawar ndi dia rdng ldn va viing Safaniya va Zuluf ngoai khai, dac biet chi rieng viing dau Ghawar chiem khoang 1/3 trii lugng dot ciia quoc gia Tuong tu nhu vay, Abu Dhabi la tieu qudc vira cd trir lugng dau md ldn nhat va trii lugng dot ldn nhat eua UAE vdi trii lugng khoang 198,5 Tef, xep thir tu tiep theo la tieu qudc Sharjah, Dubai va Ras al- n Khaimah cd trir lugng nhd hon rat nhieu tuong irng vdi 10,7 Tef, 4,0 Tcf va 1,2 Tcf Tai chau Phi, vimg dong bSng song Niger la noi cd trii lugng dot ldn nhit cua Nigeria Viing cd trir lugng dot ldn nhat eua Algena la Hassi R'Mei dugc phat hien vao nam 1956 vdi tru: lugng ude tinh khoang 85 Tef Ngoai ra, nhu:ng viing cd trii lugng ddt tuong ddi eiia Algeria n5m rai rac d khu vuc phia nam va ddng nam cua dat nude Bac Phi 80%) trii lugng dot ciia Ai Cap nam d khu vue Dia Trung Hai Ndi tdm lai, trii lugng dau md va dot ldn cua Trung Ddng va chau Phi chi tap trung d mgt sd qudc gia khu vuc, dac biet la cac nude viing Vinh giap vinh Ba Tu, cac nude Bac Phi giap Dia Trung Hai va cac nude d khu vuc ddng bang sdng Nigel Vi tri dia ly uu dai eho cac nude Trung Ddng va chau Phi ca hdi khai thac dau md va dot tiem nang ciia minh de khdng nhiing phuc vu cho nhu eau phat trien cua dat nude ma cdn xuat khau eho eae qudc gia khac Song lam the de phat huy tdi da lgi the thue sir van cdn la mdt van de dat ddi vdi chinh cac qudc gia Trung Ddng va chau Phi va doi vdi ca the gidi II KHA NANG SAN XUAT VA MlTC TIEU THU DAU MO VA KHI DOT CUA TRUNG DONG VA CHAU PHI - Khd nang sdn xudt ddu mo vd dot cua Trung Dong vd chdu Phi - Ddu mo Tir the ky VIII, dau md da duge biet den d Trung Ddng, liic dd ngudi ta khai thae san pham tir dau md de lat nhua eae eon dudng Bat Da Sang the ky IX, dau md bSt dau dugc md rdng san xuat d khu vue Trung Ddng Cdn d chau Phi cho mai den nhiing nam 50-60 cua the ky XX, dau md cua khu Tap chi nghien ciru CHAU PHI & TRUNG DONG so 02 (66) thang 2/201 ] Pham Thi Kim Hue Dau md va khf ddt cua Trung Ddng vuc mdi bit dau dugc khai thac Hien nay, bang xep hang 15 nude san xuat dau md ldn nhat tren the gidi theo sd lieu nam 2008 thi cd nude Trung Ddng va nude chau Phi, dd Saudi Arabia la nude san xuat dau md ldn nhat the gidi vdi san lugng la 10783,07 nghin thung/ngay, xep thir la Iran vdi san lugng la 4179,62 nghin thung/ngay dirng sau Nga va My Ke tiep la UAE vdi san lugng la 3046, 449 nghin thiing/ngay va tiep dd la Kuwait vdi san lugng: 2728,501 nghin thung/ngay Mae dii vdi trir lugng dau md ldn nhat tai chau Phi, song kha nang san xuat dau md cua Nigeria lai xep sau Algena vdi san lugng 2168,552 nghin thung/ngay dirng d vi tri thir 15 bang xep hang cac nude san xuat dau md ldn nhat tren the gidi, cdn san lugng cua Algeria la 2180,07 nghin thiing/ngay, dugc xep d vi tri thir 14 Mgt phan la Algeria - qudc gia Bac Phi ed trinh ky thuat san xuat dau md hien dai va kinh nghiem lau nam hon nganh khai thae dau md d chau Phi, dd trinh dg khai thac ciing nhu kinh nghiem san xuat dau md eua Nigeria cdn yeu nen tiem nang phat trien nganh dau cua qudc gia Tay Phi van edn vd ciing to ldn Cd the ndi rang, Trung Ddng van la khu vuc san xuat dau md ldn nhat tren the gidi chiem hon 70% tong san lugng eiia OPEC va 30% tong san lugng cua toan the gidi, san lugng dau md cua toan khu vuc chau Phi chiem gan 30% tong san lugng ciia OPEC va gan 13% tong san lugng cua tgan the gidi San lugng dau md cua ea hai khu vuc Trung Ddng va chau Phi cd xu hudng gia tang theo cac nam tir nam 2005 den nam 2008, nhung den nam 2009 ed sir sut giam Mdt nhiing nguyen nhan chinh eua hieu tugng la khung hoang tai ehinh toan eau cudi nam 2008 da khien eau ve dau md tren the gidi giam siit - Khi dot: Trung Ddng va chau Phi ciing dugc biet den la hai khu vue ed trii lugng ldn ve ddt Nhung hien nay, san lugng ddt cua Trung Ddng mdi chiem 12%) tdng san lugng ddt the gidi, dirng d vi tri thir danh saeh cac khu vue san xuat ddt ldn tren the gidi, edn chau Phi thi dirng d vi tri thii bang xep hang, chiem 6,5% tdng san lugng ddt the gidi Tai Trung Ddng, Iran vuon len vi tri hang dau danh sach nude san xuat ddt ldn nhat eua khu vue vdi san lugng 4107,135 ty m2 (Bcf) nam 2008 va dirng d vi tri thir bang xep hang cac nude san xuat ddt ldn ciia the gidi Saudi Arabia xep d vi tri thir hai khu vue vdi san lugng 2841 Bef vao nam 2008, song so vdi the gidi thi qudc gia viing Vinh d thir hang thir Vi tri thir ba ciia khu vuc thude ve Qatar vdi san lugng dot la 2178,584 Bef Mae dii so vdi khu vue UAE xep d vi tri thir nhung so vdi the gidi, UAE d thir hang thir 17 vdi san lugng ddt la 1774,226 Bef Vdi trii lugng dau md khdng dang ke song Oman lai la qudc gia Trung Ddng cd san lugng ddt tuong ddi eao 849,6789 Bcf - day la mdt ngudn nang lugng quan trgng de giiip Oman phat trien dat nude Khdng chi la mdt nhirng qudc gia chau Phi cd san lugng daD md ldn nhat khu vuc ma Algeria cdn la qudc gia cd san lugng ddt ldn nhat tai chau Phi vdi 3055 Bcf, xep d vi tri thir bang xep hang cac nude san xuat ddt ldn nhat tren the gidi Ke den la Ai Cap vdi san lugng ddt la 1705,715 Bef Nigeria xep d vi tri thir ba danh saeh cae nude san xuat ddt ldn nhat khu vuc va d vi tri thir 23 bang xep hang cac nude san xuat dot ldn nhat the gidi vdi san lugng la 1159 Bcf Cac Tap chi nghien cieu CHAU PHI & TRUNG DONG S6 02 (66) thang 2/2011 -ill Pham Thi Kim Hue Dau mo va khf ddt ciia TrungDong; nude chau Phi cd san lugng dot tren 100 Bef, la Libya: 561,5085 Bcf, Guinea Xich Dao: 235,5511 Bef; Mozambique: 116,5395 Phi: 114,7738 Bcf va Bcf; Nam Tunisia: 10,8856 BefV Nhin ehung, san lugng ddt cua cae nude Trung Ddng va chau Phi deu gia tang theo cac nam, mdt phan dap irng nhu cau tieu thu nang lugng nude dang cang eao, mat khac cung giup cae nude Trung Ddng va chau Phi xuat khau dot cho cac nude khu vuc va tren the gidi - Mot so to chiee vd cong ty khai thdc vd sdn xuat ddu mo vd dot noi tieng ciia Trung Dong vd chdu Phi Cd the nhan thay rang cac nude san xuat dau md ldn d Trung Ddng va chau Phi deu la vien ciia Td chire cac nude xuat khau dau md (OPEC) - mdt td chiic cd vai trd "cam can muc" ddi vdi san lugng ciing nhu gia dau tren the gidi Hien nay, OPEC gdm nude Trung Ddng, nude chau Phi va nude Nam My Trong sd nude ddng sang lap OPEC vao nam 1949 da cd den nude thude khu vuc Trung Ddng dd la Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran va Kuwait va sau dd la cac nude Qatar (1961); Libya (1962); UAE (1967); Algena (1969), Nigena (1971); Gabon (1995) sau nit khdi OPEC Gan day nhat la Angola, nude Tay Phi da chinh thirc trd thanh vien OPEC vao nam 2007 Mgt dac diem ehung niia ddi vdi cac nude khai thac dau ldn d Trung Dong va chau Phi, dd la cae tap doan hay edng ty khai thac va san xuat dau ldn cua Trung Ddng va chau Phi deu thude sd hiiu nha nude hay cua hoang gia Chang han, Saudi Arameo la mot tap doan ndi tieng va ldn nhat thugc sd hiru nha nude ITnh vuc khai thac va san xuat dau ciia Saudi Arabia vdi san lugng dau trung binh tneu thiing/ngay va san lugng dot khoang tir 9,3 Bcf den 12,5 Bef Tai UAE, Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) la tap doan khai thae va san xuat dau ldn nhat, eiing thugc sd hiiu nha nude vdi 17 edng ty eon Tap doan dau Kuwait (KPC) bao gom mgt loat cac edng ty nhu: Cdng ty dau Kuwait (KOC) chuyen khai thae va san xuat dau khi; Cdng ty dau Quoc gia Kuwait (KNPC) chuyen lge va chuyen chd dau, Cdng ty dau md qudc te Kuwait (KPI) chuyen lge va marketing san pham dau tat ca deu thugc sd hiru nha nude Tuong tu nhu vay cung xay ddi vdi cac cdng ty khai khac va san xuat dau ldn cua Iran va Iraq Cdng ty khai thac va san xuat dau ldn cua Nigeria la NNPC thugc sd hiiu nha nude Ndi den cdng ty khai thac va san xuat dau md ciia Algeria khdng the khdng nhae den Sonatrach qudc doanh, hien cdng ty dang khai thac khu vuc dau ldn nhat ciia Algeria vdi san lugng ude tinh khoang 350.000 thimg/ngay chiem khoang 26% tdng san lugng dau md tren toan qudc va san lugng ddt chiem hon 50% tdng san lugng dot eiia Algeria Nganh dau eua Libya dg tap doan dau qudc gia (NOC) chiu trach nhiem khai thac va san xuat Day la tap doan thugc sd hiiu nha nude Trong bdi canh hdi nhap va quoc te hda hien nay, xu the lien doanh, hgp tie vdi cac cong ty nude ngoai nganh dau d khu vuc Tmng Ddng va chau Phi cang gia tang Cd the ndi ring cac tap doan dau noi tieng tren the gidi da cd mat tai hau het cac qudc gia cd tiem nang ve dau md va dot ciia Trung Ddng va chau Phi nhu Shell, ConoeoPhillips! ExxonMobil, Chevron, Petrobras, StatoilHydro, Addax Petroleum' Tap chi nghien cieu CHAU PHI & TRUNG DONG SO 02 (66) thang 2/2011 Pham Thi Kim Hue Dau md va khf ddt ciia Trung Ddng Sinopec dudi dang lien doanh hay lien ket de eiing vdi cae cdng ty ciia cae nude Trung Ddng va chau Phi eiing khai thae, san xuat va kinh doanh dau eiia khu vue, - Miec tieu thu dau mo vd dot cua Trung Dong vd chdu Phi - Ddu mo Nhu tren da de cap, khu vue Trung Ddng va chau Phi vdi trii lugng va kha nang san xuat dau md ldn khdng nhiing dii cung eho nhu eau khu vue ma edn dap irng eau nhap khau eua mdt sd ddi tae ldn tren the gidi Vdi san lugng 25.841 nghin thiing dau/ngay vag nam 2008, mirc tieu thu dau md eua ca khu vue Trung Ddng la 6.775 nghin thiing/ngay chiem 26%, dieu dd ed nghTa la xuat khau rdng eiia Trung Ddng dat 19.066 nghin thiing/ngay Trong sd eae qudc gia Trung Ddng tieu thu dau md nhieu nhat phai ke den Saudi Arabia vdi miie tieu thu 2.376 nghin thiing/ngay, chiem gan V2 mire tieu thu cua ca khu vue, tiep theo la Iran vdi miic tieu thu 1.741 nghin thiing/ngay; Iraq: 616 nghin thiing/ngay; UAE: 525 nghin thiing/ngay; Kuwait: 351 nghin thiing/ngay; Syria: 273 nghin thiing/ngay; Israel: 251 nghin thiing/ngay Tai chau Phi, miic tieu thu dau md eua chau luc van ehua eao So vdi the gidi, mirc tieu thu dau md ciia chau Phi la 3.235 nghin thung/ngay, chi chiem gan 4% tong mirc tieu thu dau md the gidi Cac nude tieu thu dau nhieu nhat cua chau Phi deu la cac nude san xuat dau md, hay la cac nen kinh te phat trien cua luc dia den, Dd la Ai Cap vdi mire tieu thu 702 nghin thiing/ngay; Nam Phi: 575 nghin thimg/ngay; Algeria: 292 nghin thimg/ngay; Nigeria: 286 nghin thimg/ngay; Libya: 278 nghin thimg/ngay; Morocco: 197 nghin thung/ngay^, Nhin ehung, nhSm phuc vu nhu cau tang trudng kinh te, nhu cau tieu thu dau md eiia cac nude Trung Ddng va chau Phi deu cd chieu hudng gia tang, Neu nhu nam 2005, mire tieu thu dau md ciia Trung Ddng la 5828,161 nghin thiing/ngay thi den nam 2009 da tang hon 1000 nghin thung/ngay, tuong tu nhu vay ciing xay ddi vdi chau Phi, mire tieu thu dau md cua chau Phi nam 2005 la 2972,44 nghin thiing/ngay thi sau nam da tang len 3238 nghin thiing/ngay, Ben canh dd, Trung Ddng va chau Phi cdn la khu vuc xuat khau dau md ldn tren the gidi, Dua tren nhiing sd lieu thu thap, tac gia ude tinh nam 2008, Trung Ddng da xuat khau rdng dau thd, dat 19,066 nghin thiing/ngay ehiem gan 68% tdng lugng xuat khau rdng eiia OPEC, edn xuat khau rdng dau md eua chau Phi la 7,644 nghin thimg/ngay ehiem hon 27% tdng lugng xuat khau rdng eua OPEC, Trong dd, lugng dau md xuat khau eiia Trung Ddng sang My dat 2,400 nghin thimg/ngay chiem gan 10% tdng san lugng dau md eua Trung Ddng va ehiem gan 13% tong lugng dau md xuat khau rdng ciia Trung Ddng Chi rieng lugng dau md xuat khau cua chau Phi sang My la 2.515 nghin thiing/ngay da ehiem gan V2 tdng lugng dau md xuat khau rdng eua chau Phi va chiem gan 1/3 tong san lugng dau md eua chau Phi Nigeria dugc coi la nude xuat khau dau md ldn nhat tai chau Phi sang My vdi 988 nghin thiing/ngay Ngoai ra, Nhat Ban eiing la nude nhap khau dau md ldn tir khu vuc Trung Ddng sau My, Trong 4,7 trieu thiing dau thd nhap khau nam 2008 thi gan 80% lugng dau nhap khau eiia Nhat Ban la tir khu vuc Trung Ddng, dd ty le nhap khau dau thd eiia Nhat Ban tir Saudi Arabia la 27%; UAE: 20%; Qatar: 12%, Kuwait va Iran deu la 9%, Lugng dau nhap khau ciia Nhat Ban tir khu vue chau Phi chua nhieu, mac dii Tap chi nghien cieu CHAU PHI & TRUNG DONG S6 02 (66) thang 2/2011 3i Pham Thi Kim Hue Dau md va khf ddt ciia TrungDong^ nhiing nam gan day chau Phi dugc coi la khu vue khai thac nang lugng chien lugc ciia Nhat Ban, Trung Qudc hien dang la nen kinh te mdi ndi eiia chau A va duge danh gia la nen kinh te ldn thir hai tren the gidi sau My Chinh vi vay nhu eau ve dau md de phat trien kinh te eua Trung Qudc dang cang gia tang Theo Ca quan Nang lugng qudc te (lEA), nam 2008 Trung Qudc da nhap 3,6 tneu thiing dau thd, 1,8 tneu thiing dau thd dugc nhap khau tir Trung Ddng chiem 50%, va 1,1 tneu thiing dau thd dugc nhap khau tir chau Phi ehiem 30% Saudi Arabia - qudc gia Trung Ddng va Angola - qudc gia chau Phi la nha xuat khau dau thd ldn nhat eho Trung Qudc, ehiem 1/3 tdng lugng dau thd nhap khau ciia Triing Qudc va dap irng nhu eau xuat khau sang cac khu vuc va qudc gia khac tren the gidi - Miec tieu thu dot cua Trung Dong vd chdu Phi Khac vdi miic tieu thu dau md, muc tieu thu dot eua Trung Ddng va chau Phi tuong ddi eao Mirc tieu thu dot eiia Trung Ddng la 11.652 Bef, chiem hon 86% tdng san lugng ddt toan khu vuc, do Trung Ddng chi edn khoang 14% dot xuat khau rdng, tuong duong vdi 1859 Bcf Trong sd eae nude tieu thu ddt nhieu nhat eua Trung Ddng phai ke den Iran, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Kuwait va Oman Neu nhu san lugng dau md nam 2008 eua nude san xuat dau md ldn nhat cua Trung Ddng khdng nhirng dap img nhu cau tieu thu dau md nude ma cdn xuat khau rdng ldn cho cac nude khu vue va tren the Neu nhu cac nude tieu thu va nhap khau gidi, thi san lugng ddt cua cae nude dau ciia Trung Ddng rat da dang thi cae nude vira du hoac khdng dii cung cap nhu cau nhap khau va tieu thu dau ciia cae nude san nude, ddi phai nhap rdng Chang xuat dau mo ldn cua chau Phi chu yeu la chau han, san lugng ddt eiia Saudi Arabia va Au Theo sd lieu eua td chire Thuong mai Kuwait vira dii mirc tieu thu nude, toan cau Atlas nam 2009, phan ldn lugng dau Iran, UAE thi phai nhap rdng xuat khau ciia Libya duge ban cho eae nude dot, mirc tieu thu dot eiia Iran la chau Au nhu: Y la 425 nghin thiing/ngay; 4200,861 Bcf, am so vdi san lugng ddt Dire: 178 nghin thiing/ngay; Phap: 133 nghin cua Iran la 4107,135, tuong ty nhu vay mirc thiing/ngay va Tay Ban Nha: 115 nghin tieu thu eua UAE la 2098,523 Bef, hon san thiing/ngay Gan V2 tdng san lugng dau xuat lugng la 324 Bcf Vdi mire tieu thu dot la khau eiia Algeria dugc ban cho cac nude chau 713,363 Bcf, chi ehiem VA, tdng san lugng Au nhu Phap, Dire, Y va Anh ude tinh dot ciia Qatar, dieu dd khien cho quoc gia khoang 482 nghin thimg/ngay theo sd lieu cua trd nha xuat khau rdng dot ldn Co quan Nang lugng qudc te (TEA), nhat cua khu vue Trung Ddng Mae dii san Cd the khang dinh rang vdi trir lugng va xuat mdt lugng dot tuong doi thap so vdi cac nude khac khu vue, song mirc tieu kha nang san xuat dau md ldn tren the gidi, cac nude san xuat dau md ciia Trung Ddng thu dot cua Oman la 477,1057 Bef, dd va chau Phi khdng chi bao dam an ninh nang gan V2 san lugng dot ciia Oman dugc lugng qudc gia ma cdn cd the eung cap du diing vao xuat khau cho eae nude khu ngudn dau thd cho cac nude khu vue vue va mdt so doi tae khae tren the gidi • Tap chi nghien cieu CHAU PHI & TRUNG DONG SO 02 (66) thang 2/2011 Pham Thi Kim Hue Dau md va khf ddt ciia Trung Dong Nhin ehung, cac nude san xuat ddt ldn d chau Phi dong thdi ciing la nhirng nude tieu thu dot ldn ciia khu vuc, song khdng giong nhu Saudi Arabia, Iran, UAE, Kuwait, cac nude chau Phi bao gdm Algeria, Ai Cap, Libya, Nigeria deu la nhiing nude xuat khau rdng ddt Ching han, vdi mire tieu thu dot 947,678 Bcf, Algeria xuat khau rdng dot la 2107,246 Bcf Mire tieu thu dot cua Ai Cap la 1108,185Bef, san lugng ddt la 1705,715 Bef Mirc tieu thu dot eua Libya chi ehiem khoang gan 35% tdng san lugng ddt ciia qudc gia Bac Phi Nigeria xuat khau rdng ddt la 726 Bcf, vi mirc tieu thu ddt cua nude chi cd 434 Bef Dac biet la Guinea Xich Dao va Mozambique la hai nude ed mirc tieu thu ddt rat it, tuong duong 52,61935 Bcf va 3,5315 Bef, ehi ehiem 20% va 3% tong san lugng ddt ciia hai nude Treng sd cac nude tieu thu ddt ldn cua khu vue chau Phi phai ke den Nam Phi va Tunisia vdi mire tieu thu ddt eua Nam Phi la 227,7818 Bcf, am 122,8962 Bcf va mirc tieu thu ddt eiia Tunisia la 149,0293 Bcf - qudc gia phai nhap khau khoang 44,1437 mdi dii tieu diing'' Khae vdi thi trudng tieu thu dau md eiia Trung Ddng va Chau Phi, thi trudng tieu thu ddt eiia hai khu vuc cd nhirng dac diem sau Thie nhdt, thi trudng tieu thu ddt cua Trung Ddng va chau Phi chu yeu la cac nude khu vue Chang han, hang nam UAE, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Kuwait, Tho NhT Ky, Yemen va mdt sd qudc gia Trung Ddng khac van phai nhap mgt lugng dot khdng nhd tir cae nude xuat khau rdng ddt eiia khu vue vimg Vinh nhu Qatar, Oman thdng qua dudng ong dan dot "Ca heo" (The Dolphine Pipeline) ndi tu viing san xuat ddt phia Bae Qatar qua Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Fujairah cua UAE va den Oman - day dugc coi la dudng dng dan ddt dau tien d viing Vinh vdi edng suat 200.000 cf/ngay Thang 3, 2009, Kuwait va Qatar da ky Hiep dinh dd de cap den viee vdng nam cir vao miia he Kuwait se nhap khau khoang 67 Bef dot hda Idng (LNG) eua Qatar Hiep djnh ed hieu lire vao thang 6, 2009 Thdng qua dudng dng dan Tay Phi (the West Afnean Gas Pipeline - WAGP), Nigeria xuat khau ddt LNG sang Ghana, Togo va Benin, Cote dTvore vdi cdng suat ude tinh khoang 170 Mef/ngay Neu dugc dau tu va an ninh dugc bao dam, vdi trii lugng ddt nhu hien eua Nigeria, qudc gia ed du kha nang dam bao cung dot cho ea khu vuc Tay Phi rdng ldn Ngoai eae thi trudng tieu thu ddt ehinh khu vuc thi cae nude nhu chau Au, My, Nhat Ban, Han Qudc, Trung Qudc, An Do la cae ddi tae nhap khau ddt ehu yeu eiia Trung Ddng va chau Phi Nhat Ban nhap khau 12% lugng ddt LNG tir Qatar; 7,9% tir UAE va 4% tir Oman Gan 2/3 385 Bef LGN eiia Oman xuat khau vao nam 2008 duge xuat sang Han Qudc Trong 1,4 Tef LNG eua Qatar thi ed gan 425 Bcf (8,7 MMt) xuat sang Han Quoc, 300 Bcf (6,2 MMt) sang An Dd, 165 Bcf (3,4 Mtt) sang Tay Ban Nha va 3Bcf (it hon 0,1 MMt) xuat sang My Lugng ddt eua cac nude Bae Phi nhu Algeria, Ai Cap va Libya ehu yeu duge xuat sang cac nude chau Au Chang han, Algeria la nude xuat khau LNG ldn thir tren the gidi, chi rieng lugng LNG xuat sang thi trudng chau Au chiem khoang 90% tdng lugng LGN xuat khau eiia Algeria ude tinh khoang 643Bef, bao gdm cac nude nhap khau ehinh: Phap, Tay Ban Nha va Y Thdng qua dudng dng dan dot dudi bien Tap chi nghien cdu CHAU PHI & TRUNG DONG S6 02 (66) thang 2/2011 33 Pham Thj Kim Hue Dau md va khf dot ciia Trung D6n§^ tir Melitah cua Libya den Gela cua Sicily, Y, lugng ddt ciia Libya dugc xuat sang Y rdi tir dd trung chuyen sang cac nude chau Au khac Nam 2008, da ed 368 Bcf cua Libya duge xuat khau sang chau Au Trong sd 450 Bcf LNG xuat khau ciia Ai Cap nam 2009, chi neng thi trudng chau Au da tieu thu gan V2, khoang 236 Bef My la ddi tae nhap khau LNG ldn thir hai eiia Ai Cap xap xi 160 Bef, eae ddi tac cdn lai la Nhat Ban, An Dg va Han Qudc eiing la nhirng thi trudng tieu thu ddt tuong ddi ldn ciia Ai Cap Ngoai ra, cac nude d khu vue Trung Ddng giap hoac gan giap vdi Ai Cap nhu Israel, Jordan, Lebanon va Syria ciing la nhiing nude nhap khau ddt quan trgng eiia Ai Cap thdng qua dudng dng dan ddt Arap (the Arab Gas Pipeline - AGP) Chau Au khdng ehi la thi trudng tieu thu dot ldn eiia cac nude Bae Phi ma cdn cua Nigeria Phan ldn lugng LNG eiia Nigeria dugc xuat sang chau Au chiem 66%, dd Tay Ban Nha chiem 33%, Phap: 15%; Bo Dao Nha: 13% My la mdt nhiing ban hang nhap khau dot quan eua Nigeria Nam 2009, lugng dot xuat khau eiia Nigena sang My la 13,3 Bcf chiem khoang 3% tdng lugng nhap khau LNG ciia My Ke tiep la Mexico va chau A nhap khau tuong irng 16% va 15% lugng LNG xuat khau ciia Nigeria Mac dii Tho NhT Ky va Yemen khdng phai la qudc gia san xuat dau md va dot ldn cua khu vuc Trung Ddng, song day la hai qudc gia cd vi tri chien lugc quan trgng viee trung chuyen dau md va dot sang chau Au, My, va cac nude chau A nhu: Trung Quoc, An Do, Nhat Ban, Han Quoc, Malaysia Nam 2009, Yemen da xuat khau 18,9 MMcf LNG sang Han Quoc, Tay Ban Nha, Trung Qudc, Texas va Boston nhd he thong kho chira dot gom thimg chira vdi tong cdng suat la 13 MMcf Thd NhT Ky duge biet den la thi trudng tieu thu ddt ldn thir hai tren the gidi bdi vi thdng qua cae kho du trir dot ldn eiia Tho NhT Ky tai vinh Caspia, dau md va dot cua khu virc Trung Ddng va Bic Phi dugc trung chuyen den cac nude chau Au va mdt sd nude khac tren the gidi Cd the ndi rang chau Phi va Trung Ddng la mdt nhiing khu vuc cd ngudn nang lugng dau md va ddt dirng hang dau tren the gidi Ngudn nang lugng khdng chi dap img dii nhu eau nude cua cac nude chau Phi va Trung Ddng ma cdn xuat khau Dau md va ddt duge vi nhu vang "den" ciia hai khu vue nay, tao ddng lye de cac nude chau Phi va Trung Ddng phat trien va nang cao vi the, song ben canh dd eung tao nhiing thach thire khdng nhd ddi vdi cac nude chau Phi va Trung Ddng hien eung nhu tuong lai Chii thieh: To chiee Qudn ly Thong tin Ndng luang My (EIA) To chiee Qudn ly Thong tin Ndng lucmg ciia My (EIA) Ca quan Qudn ly Thong tin Ndng luang ciia My (EIA) Tai lieu tham khao Do Dire Dinh, 2006, Tinh hinh chinh tri kinh ti ca bdn ciia chdu Phi, Nxb KHXH, HN Do Dire Dinh, 2008, Trung Dong: Nhiing vdn de vd xu huang kinh ti - chinh tri boi cdnh qudc ti mai, Nxb KHXH, Ha Ndi African Development Bank and the African Union, 2009, OU and Gas in Africa, Oxford University Press www.eia.doe.gov www.opec.gov Tap chi nghien cieu CHAU PHI & TRUNG DONG so 02 (66) thang 2/2011 ... khu vuc phia nam va ddng nam cua dat nude Bac Phi 80%) trii lugng dot ciia Ai Cap nam d khu vue Dia Trung Hai Ndi tdm lai, trii lugng dau md va dot ldn cua Trung Ddng va chau Phi chi tap trung. .. gia Trung Ddng va chau Phi va doi vdi ca the gidi II KHA NANG SAN XUAT VA MlTC TIEU THU DAU MO VA KHI DOT CUA TRUNG DONG VA CHAU PHI - Khd nang sdn xudt ddu mo vd dot cua Trung Dong vd chdu Phi. .. va chau Phi eiing khai thae, san xuat va kinh doanh dau eiia khu vue, - Miec tieu thu dau mo vd dot cua Trung Dong vd chdu Phi - Ddu mo Nhu tren da de cap, khu vue Trung Ddng va chau Phi vdi