PETROVIETNAM Nghien ctru djnh huang san xudt cdc sdn phdm hda ddu tgi Viet Nam tCr ngudn nguyen lieu khi giai dogn 2011 2025 ThS Phan Gia Ti£u Cim, KS La Anh Thio v i cic cdng sir Vi^n Ddu khi Viit Na[.]
PETROVIETNAM Nghien ctru djnh huang san xudt cdc sdn phdm hda ddu tgi Viet Nam tCr ngudn nguyen lieu giai dogn 2011 2025 ThS Phan Gia Ti£u Cim, KS La Anh Thio v i cic cdng sir Vi^n Ddu Viit Nam Tomtit Vtit Nam id nUde cd nhiiu khd ndng nhdp khdu tifsau ndm 2020 Viic tim kHm cde gidi phdp nhdm ndng cao gid tri tdi nguyin thiin nhiin khivd phdt triin ngdnh cdng nghiip hda ddu nUdc Id hUdng di hit sUfc cdn thiit Bdi bdo ndy trinh bdy kit qud nghien cdfu dinh hUdng sdn xudt cdc sdn phdm hda ddu cd hieu qud kinh titgi Viit Nam di t^ngudn nguyin Iiiu giai dogn 2011 - 2025 Trong dd, hda ddu tif chudi C2 mang Igi nhieu lgi nhudn han so vdi hda ddu tiichu6i Cl vd C3 Do dd, hda ddu tCfchuoi C2 id hUdng nen dUgc tap trung ddu tUdimang Igi gid tri tdng thim cho ngudn nUdc Ddng thid miin Ddng Nam bd cd khd nang trd thdnh khu sdn xudt hoa ddu tCf chudi Cl, C2 va C3 cua khu vUc miin Nam diphuc vu cho thj trUdng cd nUde, miin Tdy Nam bd vd Bde Trung bg cd thi phdt triin hda ddu tU tUchuoiC I.Kit qud nghiin cUu dinh hudng gdp phdn ho trg cdng tdc nghien cdu quy hogch ngudn khivd Id trinh ti/ng budc phdt triin ede sdn phdm hda ddu tiim ndng nude nhdm dgt duac muc tiiu den ndm 2020 suf dung 20% luang khai thdc nUdc disdn xudt cde sdn phdm hda ddu theo ket ludn cda Idnh dgo Tdp dodn Ddu Viit Nam tgi kjf hgp Idn I cda Tiiu ban Hda - Che biin Ddu nhiem ky2011- 2013 I Mddau thdi x i c djnh lapng va loai d n eung d p theo tflng giai doan Viet Nam san x u l t dflpe hOn ty m ' v i o nam 2010, dd 90% sin Iflpng dflpc dung de s i n x u l t dien, ehi cd 6% dddc dflng de s i n xuat p h i n dam va 4% eho edng nghiep Trong dd, d cac nfldc khu vfle II Noi dung Kinh nghiem phat triln hoa dau tfl ehau A, t;^ Id sfldung eho s i n xuat dien chl v i o khoang 1.1 Tong quan cdc hUdng phdt triin cdc sdn phdm hda 25 - 70%, hda dau khoing - 25%, cdn lai l i cho linh vfle ddu tUkhi edng nghiep va d c linh vflc khae Can cfl v i o tinh hinh p h i t t r i l n tham dd va khai t h i e khf d Vidt Nam, cflng vdi CO hdi nang cao g l l trj eho ngudn khf thidn nhidn thdng qua phat t r i l n sin xuat hda dau dap flng nhu elu d n g t i n g cao nfldc Tap d o i n D i u khf Viet Nam xic djnh day la thdi diem thieh hpp de dfla mdt Id trinh rd rang eho dau tfl v i phat trien hda d i u tai Viet Nam Xult p h i t tfl cac 1^ tren, Tap doan D i u Viet Nam da giao nhiem vy eho Trung tam Nghien eflu va Phit t r i l n Che b l l n D i u khf {PVPro} thudc Viin Dau Viet Nam nghien cflu djnh hfldng san x u l t ele s i n pham hda dau tai Viet Nam tfl ngudn nguyen lieu giai doan 2011 - 2025 vdi mue tieu chinh I I d l x u l t chflng loai sin p h i m hda dau t i l m n i n g cd edng suit dat hieu q u i kinh t l v l dap flng thj trfldng tieu thu nadc, ddng Theo kinh nghiem d e nude cd cdng nghiep hda d i u p h i t t r i l n trdn t h l gidi, d i l u kien de p h i t triln nganh cdng nghiep hda d i u tfl khf chfl y i u dfla tren hai y i u to chinh I I ngudn nguyin lieu khf sin cd v l g l l rl.Trung Ddng l i khu vflc dan d i u phat trien cdng nghiep hda d i u tfl ngudn nguydn lieu khf san ed vdi g l l thap Mpt sd nfldc d khu vflc chiu A cd trfl Iflong khf dflpe dflng eho sin x u l t hda d i u la An Dd, Indonesia, Malaysia, Australia va Thai Lan Ddi vdi d c nflde phli nhap khau khf (LNG) Idn khu vfle (Nhit Bin, Han Qudc), cdng nghiep hda d i u tfl h l u nhfl khdng phat trien g i i nhap khau khdng canh tranh Cic dan xuat/san pham ' ehuoiCI (methane),chiioi'" ••[-•'-I h^o g o m •pane) HOA - CHE BIEN DAU KHI k h i u tfl n i m 2011 Do dd, Chinh phij Thil Lan da x i c djnh rd ngudn nfldc (giiu C2+) se dflpe flu t i l n sfl dgng eho hda d i u ngudn LNG nh|p k h i u phyc vu cho cic ITnh vflc khic Doi vdi Vi^t Nam, vdi ngudn han ehlvj p h l i n h i p khiu tfl khoing nam 2015 64 d i p flng cho nhu elu ndi dia, viec tien h i n h quy hoach nguon dd xk djnh mflc dd flu tidn d i u tfl eho dung cho hda d i u eIn dflpc d n nhle + Lfla chpn d c sin phIm hda dluti:! khi: Cie qudc gia cd ngudn khf sin ed v& g i l r l (nhfl Saudi Arabia), hole dflpc sir hd trp manh me eua ehinh phu d l ph^t t r i l n edng nghidp hda d i u tfl (nhu Bdng I.Tyli phdn bdsddung thiin nhiin cho hda ddu tgi mdt s6 nUdc khu vUc chdu A Trfl lUtfng xac minh (ty m') ; Saudi Arabta Sin lacmg khai thic (t;^ m^) 78 (2009) 84(2010) 42 (2009} 45(2010) Nhucau'26 Malaysia 63 (2009) 67(2010) Nhu ciu: 31 31 (2009) 33(2010) Nhu ciu: 39 1^16 phin bd sfl dung thien nhien (%) Dien: 50 Hda dlu^ 25 Cong nghiep: 20 Khic: Di^n: 25 Hda diu: Cdng nghiep: 58 Khic: 14 Dien, 47 Hda diu: Cdng nghiSp: 38 Khic: Oi4n:72 Hda diu: 17 Cdng nghiep: 10 Khic: Malaysia) d i u p h i t t r i l n edng nghiep hoa d i u tfl vdi d c s i n phIm da dang, bao gdm h l u h i t eic sin phIm chu6it(f Cl - C3 Trong dd, d c qudc gia khdng n h i n dflpc sfl tra g i i tfl chinh ph6 (nhir Thli Lan) Ifla chon sin x u l t d c sin pham hda d i u tfl mang lai hieu q u i kmh te v l cd thj trfldng tieu thu Viet Nam can lua chpn sin pham hda d i u tfl thich hop, x u l t p h i t tfl hadng thj tnJdng, b i t dau vdi nhflng sin p h I m cd flng dung rdng rai, co thi trfldng d i n g k l va cd t i l m ning ph^ t r i l n , Bdn eanh dd, Viet Nam cung d n xiy dflng Id trinh timg bfldc p h i t trien eac sin pham chudi sin pham hda dau til nhflThii Lan da thfle hien ,J + Xic djnh dja d i l m xiy dflng cac to hop hda d i u tfl khi: Cic td hpp hda dSu Ngudn: Market Evaluation of Gas-based Petrochemical Industry, Nexant, March 2010 tfl dflpc x i y dflng tai d e vj tri ed thS 1.2 Kinh nghiim phdt trien hda ddu td' tgi mdt sd t i n dung tdi da cac Ipi the v l t i l p c i n nguon nguyen l i ^ nUdc khu vUc cung nhfl thj trfldng tieu thy sin phIm, ddng thcii sfl dyng dfloe co sd t i n g sSn cd T h i m vao do, Vi6t Kmh nghiem p h i t t r i l n cdng nghidp hda dau tfl tren t h l gidi v l tai mdt sd qudc gia noi b i t khu vae eho t h i y mdt so v i n d l d n xem xet q u i trinh quy hoach phat trien hda d i u tfl khf tai Viet Nam nhfl sau: Nam eIn x i y dflng k l hoach p h i t then eic to hpp hoa d i u tich hpp vdi quy md ldn, tflOng tfl khu cdng nghifep Map Ta Phut tai Thli Lan, hoac td hop hda d i u Kerteh t?i Malaysia + Sfl dung hieu q u i ngudn khf: Kinh nghiem the gidi cho thay, cdng nghidp hda dau tfl khf p h i t trien manh me va thuan Ipi tai d c qude gia ed ngudn ddi d i o v i g i l re, d e qudc gia p h i i n h i p khau Idn h l u nhfl khdng phat t r i l n hda d i u tfl khf Thli Lan I I quoc gia p h l i nhap 38 DilUKHl.Sd 5/2012 Nguon cung nguyen lieu tai Viet Nam va khu vflc chau A Giai doan 2010 - 2025, Vidt Nam ludn tinh t h i l u ngudn eung khL Lflpng t h i l u hut cd the llf PETROVIETNAM tren t^ m' vao n i m 2020 v i gan 10 ty m^ vao n i m 2025 Cie j^^ phflong an nhap khiu ed t h l xem xet i l nhap khau qua ^ :b L dfldng dng hole n h i p khau dfldi dang hda Idng LNG: + Nhap khau bing dfldng dng: D f l l n Natuna D Alpha (Indonesia) cd trfl Iflpng 1.300 tJ- m^ + Nhap khiu LNG: Dfl i n Gorgon v l Pluto-1 eua Australia, Shkhailin II cfla Nga v i Peru LNG eua Peru c ^ _ I Nquon BP StaU^licat Review ol Woikl Limgy 201!, BP, June2011 Hinh Ihi tiuanq i^himot sonitdc ctuiu A acini 2010 Ngoii ra, Vidt Nam ed t h l xem xet nhap khiu LPG tfl d c qudc gia x u l t khau LPG ldn nhfl: Malaysia, Qatar, Indonesia, Papua New Guinea v l Australia E Thj trfldng cac sin pham hda dau tai Viet Nam Nhin ehung, giai doan 2009 - 2025, d c sin p h I m hda dau tai Viet Nam nhfl: amoniae, SA, metanol, PE, VCM, PVC, MEG, PETxo spi, EVA {Ety! Vinyl Acetat), SM, PS, PR 2-EH, DOP ludn tinh trang t h i l u hut v l dflpc dap flng ehfl y i u tfl ngudn nhap khau , — 11 • - L h_ 1 -MO m50C- _ 623 • • SA 1155 PE VCM PVC MEG PP 2-EH 68 742 w 299 58 411 40 18 631 19 211 0 15 0 « -56 -OT JO -16 -119 •631 •19 -16 D 7j; -PtJ Sar -50 -n55 PETm Usianoi •68 -104 SM EVA PS DOP 29 Nguon Tong hep so lieu tUcdc nguon Thong tin thuang mai Cue Hoa chat-Bd Cong Thuang, 20 W Hinh Thl Iniang cdc san pham hoa ddu tifkhi tai Viet Nam nam 2009 Djnh hudmg phit trien hda 11 dau tfl t I 4.1 Phuang phdp nghiin cufu vt Nham de x u l t djnh hfldng phit triln hda dau tfl cho tflng chudi sin pham C l , C2 v i C3, ehung tdi da thflc hien nghien cflli theo trinh tfl sau; Giai dogn /: Xic dinh quy md cdng suit va thdi d i l m d i u tfl • Tieu m i.Sin Quy md cdng suit v l thdi diem d i u tfl eua d e nha m i y ehe blln d c san pham hda d i u tfl khf dflpc xac djnh dfla tren d c tieu |.«._ s Uelanol PE 1862 1606 m 2353 VCM PVC MEG PET« E „ SM PS PP 2-EH 1112 150 703 i:'.a 1.10 500 1637 21 11 120 1530 0 600 400 400 444 -332 -1606 483 1553 ?12 150 265 I4B Nguon: Tong hgp sd Iiiu tii cdc ngudn cCia PVPro, 2010 Hinh Thi trUdng cdc sdn phdm hoa dai.: •: , • " " ' DOP 97 30 21 -67 HOA - CHt MHi chf v l : lflpng thidu hut nhu d u tidu thy cua thj trfldng D l cung d p nguydn li|u cho d e n h i m i y PE, SM,VCM Vidt Nam giai do^n 2009 - 2025 eao hon hole b i n g v l MEG, mdt n h i m i y sin x u l t ethylene edng suit 770.000 mflc edng suit tdi t h i l u d^t hl§u q u i kmh t l ; k h i thi v l t I n / n I m sd dl v i o hoat d^ng cflng thdi dilm, nam mat cdng ngh| 2021, vdi nhu elu ethane khoing 950.000 t i n / n l m Ngoii dl/ I n t i c h 250.000 t i n ethane/nim tfl khf cua dfldng &ig Giai dogn 2: D i n h g i l tinh k h i thi v l m i t t i l ehlnh Bach H - Dinh C6 (ethane 1), d n p h l i d i u tfl Nha miy Tinh k h i thi v l m i t t i i chinh cfla cic n h i miy/chudi n h i m i y dflpe d i n h g i l thdng qua vile p h i n tich hidu q u i ethane vdi edng suit 700.000 t l n / n i m di tfl cfla hai k i n h t l so bd bd cho t h i y c i hai n h i m i y d i u dat hi^u q u i kinh t l Giai doan 3: Xic dinh nhu d u nguydn li§u d n dfldng dng Nam Cdn Son v l Nam Cdn Son 2.E)lnhgilso Vdi hfldng p h i t t r i l n tfl chudi C3, cym n h i miy sin x u l t propylene (cdng suit 450.000 tIn/nIm) vi thidt, polypropylene (edng suit 400.000 t l n / n i m ) ed t h l dfl^c 4.2 Kit qud nghiin cdu Odi vdi chudi C l , k i t q u i p h i n tich eho t h i y cd t h l d i u tfl mdt n h i m i y sin x u l t amoniae cd cdng suat 300.000 xem xdt d i u tfl v i o n i m 2023 K h i n i n g cung dp nguydn lidu t i n / n i m (mflc cdng suit tdi t h i l u d l dfl i n dat h i i u q u i Hidn tai, sin Iflpng khai thie efla Vidt Nam flat hon kmh t l ) v i o n i m 2014 n h l m cung d p amoniae cho ele ty m' khi/nim D i y l i ngudn nguyin hdu k h i doi dio d f l l n DAP (Di Amoni Photphat), NH^NO, (Amoni Nitrat) v i cho p h i t t r i l n hda d i u tfl C l Trong dd tieh ethane cic nhu d u khic nflde Nhu d u nguyen lidu cho v l propane tfl d l p h i t t r i l n hda d i u tflC2 v i C3 phu Nha m i y Amoniae cdng suit 300.000 t I n / n I m la 0,252 t)f thudc v i o h i m Iflpng cfla chflng kh! v l h i thdng ccr mVnam sd t i n g eho v i n chuyin khL Odi vdi ehuoi C2, mdt td hpp hda d i u tfl dfloc de Nha m i y C h l b i i n Dinh Co l i ngudn eung LPG x u l t d i u tfl vao n i m 2021, gdm d e n h i m i y sin x u l t di tfl khf n h i t nflde, hang n i m sin xult gan PE cdng suit 400.000 t I n / n I m , SM cdng suit 230.000 300.000 t i n LPG (hdn hop propane v l butane) eho thj t I n / n I m , PS 220.000 tan/nim, VCM 400,000 tan/nam, PVC trfldng nflde N h i m i y dfl k i l n dflOC ning cap de 200 000 tin/nam, MEG 175.000 tan/nam v l mpt n h i m i y tach thdm 250.000 t i n ethane/nIm Cflu Long, sin xult PET xa soi cdng suit 180.000 tan/nlm Sin x u l t eung flng choTd hpp Hda d i u m i l n Nam vao nam 2014 hda d i u tfl C2 mang lai gia tri gia t i n g dang ke eho ngudn nflde.Tdng g i l trj tang them dat USD/trieu Btu, g i n 40% g i l ban d i u , dd cic khau sin x u l t PE va PVC mang lai nhieu g i i trj gia tang nhit Ethane v l propane cd t h l dflpc tieh tfl dfldng ong Nam Cdn Son v l Nam Cdn Son Dfldng dng Nam Cdn Son cd t h l dflpe Petrovietnam d i u tfl v l dfla vao v i n h i n h v i o n i m 2014 v6i edng suit v | n ehuyin II 5,6 ty mVnam Sin Iflpng v l ham Iflong ethane tfl hai dfldng ong PM3-CiMauvaLdB&52-0 Mdn k h i t h l p , thdm vio viec van chuyen ethane bSng dfldng dng tfl f^y Nam W sang Bdng Nam bd rit kh6 khin Vi vay, vide d i u W tach ethane tfl hai dfldng dng t r ^ khdng dflpc d l xult Vile tach propane ed t h l dflpe nghifti cflu trien khai cho dfldng 6ng Nguon: PVPro, 2010 Hinh Gid tn gia tdng tao cho khf sdn xudt hda dau td C2 40 DAunil-Sd5/2012 LdB&52-0Mdn PETROVIETNAM Bdng Khd ndng cung cdp ethane vd propane cda cdc dudng dng ddn khf DflAmg d n g C&ng s u i t Trung binh C2 Trung binh C3 d i n tJ m^/nim %mol %mol BfldngdngBachHoDinhC6(1995) 2,2 10 5,6 6,4 ' S i n lUtfng Ethane S i n luong Propane , nghin t W n i m i nghin t l n / n i m j 257 198 Dfldng d n g Nam Con son (2002) Dfldng d n g Nam Cdn Son (2014) D u d n g d n g PM3 C l Mau (2007) DUdng d n g Lo B & S2-0M6n(2014) Tong cung Idn n h a t 409 316 2,5 327 253 70 54 2,5 224 j 173 1.287 994 993 940 1,5 23,2 Dling cho hoa d i u Nguon PV Gas, 2010