Ng6 van GWi vd Dig Tiip chl KHOA HOC & CONO NGHE iTNG DUNG MO HINH METI LIS TINH TOAN PHAT TAN MOT SO CHAT GAY 6 NHIEM KHONG KHI TlT HOAT DQNG GIAO THONG VA CONG NGHIEP TREN DIA BAN T H A N H PHO THAI[.]
Ng6 van GWi vd Dig Tiip chl KHOA HOC & CONO NGHE iTNG DUNG MO HINH METI-LIS TINH TOAN PHAT TAN MOT SO CHAT GAY NHIEM KHONG KHI TlT HOAT DQNG GIAO THONG VA CONG NGHIEP TREN DIA BAN T H A N H PHO THAI NGUYEN, DlT BAO T I NAM 2020 Ngo Vfin Gi6i , Nguyen Thj Nham Tuai, Do^n Thj Hoang Yen Tnrd'iig Dai IK.IC Klioa Iwc Dil Iliai ^gtiyen TOM TAT B&i bio nghien ciru irng dung mo hinh Meti-Lis &k xSc dinh hien trang v^ du bdo miic nhilm moi trudng khong bui (TPS) \k SO2 tgi th^nh ph6 Thii Nguyen tdi nSm 2020 theo cdc kich ban khdc Ket qua nghidn ciiu cho thdy hien tai Thdnh ph6 Thdi Nguyen dang co dau hieu nhiem bui TPS cue bp t^i m^t s6 noi, dien hinh tai cdc khu vuc thupc phudng Gia Sang vd Phli Xd Tai cdc tuygn dudng Cdch mang thdng 8, dudng Qu6c Ip 3, du6Tig Luong Ngpc QuySn c6 nong dp bui khd cao, da vugt quy chuan cho phep Ket qua nghien ciru cho thay hien tai nong SOl tai hau het cac khu vuc deu thdp hon quy chuan cho phep Su lan truyen cac chat nhilm khong du bdo tdi nam 2020 theo kjch ban thi moi trudng khong tai Thanh ph6 Thdi Nguyen s§ bj nhilm nSng Theo kich ban thi moi trudng khong tai mpt so khu vuc vd cdc niit giao thong chinh vin bi nhiem Theo kjch ban thi moi trucmg khong khu vuc Thai Nguyen miic "an toan", nong cdc chat nhiem co ban moi trucmg khong xung quanh vdn gidi ban cho phep Tir khda.- Meti-lis, mdi trudng khdng nhiem That Nguyen, md hinh DAT VAN DE Thanh Thai Nguyen la nai tap trung hau hel cac co sd san xual kinh doanh, nha may, xi nghiep, khu - cum cong nghiep ciia tinh Thai Nguyen nhu khu Gang thep Thai Nguyen, nha may nhiet dien Cao Ngan, nha may xi mang Luu Xa Quan Trieu, cac khu vuc khai thac ciia mo than Khanh Hoa , day la yeu to quan thuc day phat trien kinh le xa hpi ciia nhung cung chinh la yeu to gay cac van de ve moi trudng song, dac biet la moi Irudng khong Cac co sd san xual kinh doanh hau bet nam cac khu vuc dong dan eu sinh song, mat dan cu dong diic va hau het cac don vi ehua co he thong xir ly kbi thai hoac hieu qua hoat ddng eiia he thong xir ly bui, thai khong cao Thanh Thai Nguyen da ed quy hoach phat trien kinh te xa hpi den nam 2020, theo do, mpt so nganh cong nghiep se khong ngirng gia tang va phat trien, keo theo la hang loat cae van de moi Irudng, co van de moi trudng khong [3] Tuy nhien, cho Tel- 0987343119 Emad- nvgioi@gmad c den van chua co cac nghien ciru, tinh loan cu the ve mii'c phat tan cac chat nhiem moi trudng khong tir cac boat dgng san xuat cong nghiep tren dia ban Thai Nguyen Hien nay, xu hudng sir dung cac mo hinh loan hgc de linh loan, udc luong thai nhiem tir cac boat dgng giao thong, cong nghiep la kha bien Md hinh Meti-lis la nipt nhirng sy lya chgn loi uu, no duoc sir dung kha rgng rai va co tin cay cao cho muc dich linh loan phat thai nhiem tir nguon diem va nguon dudng [5] M6 binh duoc phal trien bdi Vien Khoa hpc va Cong nghe tien lien Nhat Ban Vi vay, de tai: "Ung dung md hinh METI-LIS tinh todn phdt tdn mot sd chdt gdy nhiem khdng tir hogi ddng giao ihdng va cong nghiip tren dia hdn thdnh Thdi Nguyin, dir bdo tai nam 2020" da dugc thyc hien vdi muc dich: Tinh toan, mo phong hien trang va du bao tdi nam 2020 qua trinh phal tan bui va SO2 lii hoat dgng san xuat cong nghiep va giao thong van lai tren dia ban Thai Nguyen 85 DOI I UONG NGHIEN CU'U VA 106(06): 85-91 Tgp chf KHOA HOC & CONG NGH$ Ngo VdnGigi W/£)fg PHUONG PHAP Doi tirong nghien ciru Cac hoat dpng san xuat cong nghidp va giao thong v^in lai eo phal sinh chat thai gay d nhiem khong C^l the tai cae ca sd hoat dpng sail xual cong nghiep luypn kim; cac tuyen giao thong dudng bg chinh Phinmg phdp nghien cim - Phu-cnig phdp ihu thdp vd ke Ihira ldi lieu: Dc Ihyc hipn nghien cuu lac gia da Ihu Ihap, ke thira cac thong tin cd lien quan den cae ket qua nghien ciru cua cac ehuong trinh \a dO tai khoa hpe co lien quan den mdi tru'dng khong tai Thai Nguyen; cac tai lieu so lieu ve tinh hinh san xuat cong nghiep luyen kim, giao thdng van tai dudng bg tai Thai Nguyen; cac thong tin vc dieu kien tu nhien hien trang phat trien kinh te xa hoi ciia Ihanh phd Thai Nguyen va quy hoach phat trien den nam 2020 diem dugc md phdng theo khdng gian ba chieu (x y, z) [5]: QV •exp - , iTTU^cr^.cr Trong do: C: nong dg ciia md phdng tai mdt diem co tga dg (x,y,/) (ppb, ppm) Q: h? so phat thai ehat nhilm (g/s) V: phan khuech tan theo chieu thang dirng Us: hudng gio chinh tai dg cao phat thai (m/s) Oy, o^: cac thong sd khuech tan theo phuang thang dirng \ a phuang ngang (m) V dugc tinh theo phuang trinh: V= exp - exp - , i i l ^ Zr: eao eCia diem tinh (m) h^: phut cao len so vdi diem tinh (m) - Phirang phdp diiu Ira khdo sal tgi hien iru&ng: Dieu tra, kiem ke so lugng nha may, \i nghiep hoat dgng san xuat cong nghiep luyen kim CO phat thai tren dia ban Thai Nguyen; kiem ke so lugng cac phuang lien giao thong van tai duong bg boat ddng tren cac tuyen dirdng chinh lai dia ban Ihanh Thai Nguyen Bang L Cdc ihdng sd ddu vdo cua md hinh Meli-li klii - Phuang phdp thong ki ddnh gid hm Itnrng lai Immg d nhiem cdc nguon thai: Hudng gio, toe dp gio, on dinh ciia quyen nhiet dp moi trudng tirgng Ban d6 Nguon diem Nguon dudng Tpa do, cao dp dudng kinh ong khoi, tai luong phat thai, nhiet thai Tpa dp, be so phat thai, ddi cita dudng Su dung phirong phap danh gia nhanh thong ke nhilm ciia To chirc Y te thg gidi dua vao cong suat ciia nguon thai, - Phirang phdp mo htnh hda: De lai sir dung mo hinh Meli-lis phien ban tieng Anh 2.03 Mo hinh dugc xay dyng dua tren nguyen Iy phal tan theo phuo'ng trinh Gausse, dugc iing dung cho viec tinh loan phat thai lai mgt diem bk ky Mot nguon diem bk ky dugc xem nhu la mgt diem phal tan va cae chit nhilm phat tan tir Ten Chat nhiem Che dp mo phong DO lieu Dir lieu dau v^o Ten chat, khoi lugng, dang ton tai He so phat thai theo ch^ mo phong (gid thang) ngan han hay ddi han Ban khu vuc can mo phong KET QUA NGI 11 EN ClJU VA T H A O LUAN y/d phdng qud trinh lan Iruyin mgt so chat nhiim khong tit- hoat dpng cong nghiip luyin kim vd giao thong van tdi tren dja ban thdnh Thai Nguyin Ket qua md phong qua trinh lan truyen byi TSP tir hoat dgng san xuat cdng nghiep luyen Ngo Vdn Gidi vd Dtg Tgp chi KHOA HOC & CONG NGHE kim va giao thong van tai dudng bg tren dja ban Thai Nguyen dugc the hi?n tgi hinh Hoat dgng san xuat eong nghiep luy?n kim va giao thong van tai da lam nhilm bui TSP tai mgt so diem tren dia ban, khu vuc nhiem n|ing nhat la cac khu vyc thugc phu'dng Gia Sang va Phil Xa (chju anh hudng cQa khu Gang Thep), cac khu vuc nhu dudng CMT8, dudng quoc lg 3, dudng Luang Ngpc Quyen cung CO nong bui kha cao Kel qua mo phong cho lhay nong bui cao nhat tinh loan duoc la 362,9 pg/m"*, vugt quy chuan cho phep 1,2 lan 106(06): 85-91 Ket qua md phong qua trinh lan truyen SO2 tir hoat dgng san xuat cong nghiep luyen kim va giao thong van tai dudng bg ircn dia ban Thai Nguyen dugc the hien lai hinh Mac dil boat dgng eong nghiep luy^n kim va giao thong dudng bp da phat sinh mpt lugng khong nho SO2 nhien, tai thdi diem quan trac kel qua mo phong cho thay nong dp eae chat lai bau het eae khu vuc deu thap ban nhieu so vdi quy chuan cho phep, nong dp SO2 ldn nhat theo mo phong la 91,2 pg/m^ Miia dong viing Tay Nam se co nong TSP va SO2 cao, phia Tay Bae la viing eo nong dd cao vao miia he Hinh Qua irinh lan iniycn hui TSP ihco miia dong rd mini he Hinh Mo phong qud trinh lan Iruyen SO? iheo miia ddng vd miia he Ngo van Gidi vd Dig Tgp chf KHOA HQC & CONG NGHE Qud trinh lan truyen bui (TPS) vd SO2 khong kbi den ndm 2020 Tren ea sd dy bao tai lirgng cac chat nhiem phal sinh Iren dia ban Th^i Nguyen den n3m 2020, de tai lien hanh mo phong qua trinh lan Iruyen chat d nhilm tir boat dgng cong nghiep luy^n kim v^ giao thong van lai dirdng bg Ircn cac kich ban nhu sau: - Kich ban I: Chat d nhiem phal sinh khdng dugc \ii ly - Kich ban 2: ChSt iihiein phal smh dvtQC xir ly de lam giam lugng phat thai ngoai mdi trudng 50% (xCr ly 50%) - Kjch ban 3: Chat nhiem phal sinh dixgc xir ly dk lam giam lugng phal thai ngoai moi Irudng 30% (xir ly 70%) 106(06): 85-91 Kel qu^ mo phong nhu sau: Kich ban Theo kjch ban I, toan bg eae chSt nhiem phat sinh sS khong duge xii ly, diln bien mirc dg nhiem byi TPS va SO2 khdng dugc md phdng nhu hinh va hinh Ket qua mo phdng theo kjch ban I cho thay cac chat nhiem dac trung nhu TSP, SO2 lir hoat dgng cong nghidp luy?n kim va giao thong v^n lai dudng bg gay nhiem moi Irudng khong d mirc kha nSng cho Thai Nguyen Ndng dg Idn nhat theo mo phong cOa TSP, SO2 tuang iing la: 1271,81 yg/m-'; 834,5yg/m\ W\n]ii.(hhilniihh -"\,3i».', % Hinh Qud Irlnh lan Iruyin SO, lai nSin 2020 iheo kich ban I vao miia dong va miia he Ng6 van OWi va Dig Tap chi KHOA HOC & CONG NGHE 106(06): 85-91 \ Hinh Omi irinh lan iniyOn bui TSP dJn nam 2020 Ihco kich bun vdo mini ddn^ vd miia he Hinh 6, Oiid ninh lai 2020 ihco hch Kjch ban Theo kich ban 2, loan bg eae chat nhiem phat sinh se dugc xir ly 50%, dien bien nong chat nhiem khong dugc mo phong nhu hinh va hinh Ket qua mo phong theo kjch ban cho lhay: Mac dit da xii ly 50% lugng chat thai ciia cac chat nhiem dac trung nhu TSP, SOj tir boat dgng cong nghiep va giao thong van lai nhung moi Irudng khong tai mgl s6 khu vuc lap trung san xual cong nghiep (Khu gang thep), cac niil giao thong chi'nh van bj d nhiem, cac viing CO n6ng bui Idn han 300 pg/m' kha Idn Tuy vay, neu thuc hien theo kich ban 'do IHIIU ddiiji V thi nong SOj moi trudng khong xung quanh deu nam gidi ban cho phep Kich ban Theo kieh ban loan bo cac chat nhiem phat sinh se dugc xir Iy 70%, dien bien nong chat nhiem khong dugc mo phong nhu hinh va hinh Ket qua mo phong theo kich ban cho thay neu cae chat nhiem khong dugc xu iy 70%i trudc thai ngoai moi irudng thi moi trudng khong khu vyc phd Thai Nguyen se kha "an toan", nong cac chat d nhiem ea ban trgng moi trudng khong xung quanh deu nam Irong gidi ban cho phep 89 Ngo van Gidi va Dig 106(06): 85-91 Tap chl KHOA HQC & CONG NGHE \ Irlnh hill Iriivvn ISI',In \ yiJO Ihni kich ban van iiiiia tlon.ii vii initu he .1 ,.,- - , „ \ l\^£i^ dt.~>ris Hinh Qud Irinh lan truyen SO? den ndm 2020 theo kich bdn vdo mita ddng vd mita he KET LUAN Theo ket qua tinh loan ciia mo hinh thi hien tai khu vyc phudng Gia Sang, Phii Xa va mpt so tuyen dudng nhu: Quoc lg 3, Cach mang thang 8, Luang Nggc Quyen tai Thai Nguyen dang bi nhiem bui (TSP), Ket qua linh loan ciing cho lhay hien tai ndng SO2 van nam Irong gidi ban eho phep Kel qua dy bao miic nhiem tdi nam 2020 Iheo kich ban I cho thay neu khong ed giai phap xii' ly va khac phue thi mii'c nhiem moi trudng khong tai Thai Nguyen vdi bui (TSP) va SO2 se rat nang Theo kich ban neu chi dugc xu ly 50% thi miic nhiem bui van kha phd bien tai cac diem nut giao thong chinh va cac khu tap trung san xuat cong nghiep ciia pho, mirc nhiem SO2 ve ca ban se khong dang lo ngai Theo kjch ban neu dugc xir ly 70%i thi ndng 90 bui va SO2 se deu d Irong gidi han cho phep Theo tat ca cae kjch ban deu eho lhay co sir khae biel \e ndng cua cac chat nhiem theo hudng va theo miia TAI LIEU THAM K H A O [1] Cyc Thdng ke Thai Nguyen (2012), M"e« gidm ihong ke tinh Thdi Nguyen 2011, Thdi Nguyen [2] Bp Tai nguyen Moi trudng (2009), QCVN 05.2009/BTNMT- Quy chudn Ay thudl quoc qia v chdt luang khong xung quanh Ha Ngi [3] Uy ban nhan dan tinh Thai Nguyen (2006), Quy hoach phdt trien giao thdng van tdi tinh Thai Nguyen giai doan 2006 - 2010, dmh hirdng den 2020, Thdi Nguyen [4] Uy ban nhan dan linh Thdi Nguygn (2007), Quy hogch long the phdt trien kinh le xa hpi linli Thai Nguyen den ndm 2020, Thai Nguyfin [5] Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (2005), Low Rise Industrial Source Dispersion Model, Meti-lis Model - Technical Manual, Ngo van Gidl vd Dtg Tap chi KHOA HOC & CONG NGHE SUMMARY A P P L Y I N G M E T I - L I S IMODEL T O C A C U T A T E D I S P E R S A L O F A I R P O L L U T A N T S F R O M T R A F F I C A N D I N D U S T R Y IN T H A I N G U Y E N CITY, F O R E C A S T I N G U P T O 2020 Ngo Van Gioi , Nguyen Thi Nham Tuat, Doan Thi Hoang Yen College of Sciences -TNU This paper studies the application of Meti-Lis model to determine the state and forecast to 2020 of air pollutants from TPS and SO2 in Thai Nguyen city to 2020 using different scenarios Results have shown that Thai Nguyen city has been polluted by TPS in some areas, such as Phu Xa, Gia Sang Ward At the some routes such as Cach Mang Thang Tam and Luong Ngoc Quyen street have had high concentration dust that exceeded the acceptable limits of Vietnam The research results have revealed that current concentration of SO2 in almost areas is lower than the standards The spread of air pollution to 2020 in scenario has indicated air environment in Thai Nguyen city will be serirously polluted by TSP and SOi Scenario has shown that air environment in some areas and main traffic junctions in Thai Nguyen city will remain polluted According to scenario 3, the air environment in Thai Nguyen city will be at "safe" levels for the air sun*ounding and within the permissible limits Key words: Meti-lis air environment, air pollution Thai Nguyen, model Ngdy nhdn bdi 16/5/2013; Ngdy phdn bien 19/7/2013: Ngdy duyel ddng 26/7/2013 Tel 0987343119; Emad nvgioi@gmail.c: ... P T O 2020 Ngo Van Gioi , Nguyen Thi Nham Tuat, Doan Thi Hoang Yen College of Sciences -TNU This paper studies the application of Meti- Lis model to determine the state and forecast to 2020 of... le xa hpi linli Thai Nguyen den ndm 2020, Thai Nguyfin [5] Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (2005), Low Rise Industrial Source Dispersion Model, Meti- lis Model - Technical Manual, Ngo... Tgp chi KHOA HOC & CONG NGHE kim va giao thong van tai dudng bg tren dja ban Thai Nguyen dugc the hi?n tgi hinh Hoat dgng san xuat eong nghiep luy?n kim va giao thong van tai da lam nhilm bui