Khuôn mẫu hôn nhân tiêu biểu trong xã hội Tây Âu, Bắc Âu và Nam Âu giai đoạn từ đầu thế kỷ 21 đến nay.pdf

Nghign cilu Gia d i n h va G i d i So - Khuon mau hon nhan tieu bleu xa hgi Tay Au, Bac Au va Nam Au glal floan tirflauthe ky 21flennay Phan Huyen Dan Vifen Nghign cihi Gia dinh va Gidi Torn tat: Bai vie't lUa chon van de ket hon, ly hon va chung sd'ng khdng ke't hon d xa hdi Tay Au, Bac Au va Nam Au giai doan ta dau the ky 21 den vdi mong mud'n se gdp phan dUa nhiing thdng tin va phan tich tong hdp dang tm cay ve nguyen nhan va tac dpng ciia cac mo hinh va xu hUdng hon nhan cl cac nu6c phat trien, lam tien de cho cac nghien cflu soi roi tinh hinh thUc te tai Viet Nam cung giai doan Bai viet cho tha'y mac du d cac nudc Tay Au, Bdc Au va Nam Au xu hUdng giam ty le ke't hon, tang ty le chung so'ng khdng ke't hdn, tang ty le ly hdn lam gia tang nhieu cac va'n de bat dn gia dinh, nhien xa hoi va phap luat da cdi md hdn dd'i vdi cac lUa chpn sdp xep cupc so'ng khac ciia ngUdi Xu hUdng hdn nhan mdi dUdc nhin nhan theo chieu hudng tich cUc hdn Tac gia cho ritng can danh gia cac mo hinh hdn nhan ci gdc dp khach quan de tha'y dUdc ca mat tich cUc va tieu cUc, tfl dd dUa dUdc nhOng giai phap hdp iy Tif khda: Hdn nhan; Ly hdn; Chung sd'ng khdng ke't hdn; Mo hinh; Xu hu6ng; Giai doan the ky 21, Tay Au; Bdc Au; Nam Au Chu dl vl md hinh va cac xu hudng hdn nhan Iudn dugc quan tSm nghidn cuu bdi hdn nhan la md'i quan hd mang dam tfnh xa hdi va dao diic ngudi Xu hudng hdn nhan d nhilu qud'c gia trdn thd' gidi hidn Phan Huyen Dan 71 dang thay ddi theo chilu hudng gidng la tri hoan kd't hdn, giam ti Id kd't hdn, tang ti Id ehung sd'ng khdng kd't hdn (CSKKH) va cac quan he khdng sdng chung mdt nha, ddng thdi eung gia tang su ba't dn irong cac md'i quan he Hdn nhan lau dai mdt vg mdt chdng vdn duoc coi ia chuan mirc dd'i vdi hau hd't thd'hd sinh trudc nam I960 vi the khdng ndm giii' hai vai trd chfnh ciia mdt the chd' Cd thd nhilu ngudi van coi trgng kd't hdn va hdn nhan vdn dugc dat d vi trf bilu tugng mang tfnh ly tudng vd mat van hda, nhung ranh gidi gifla hdn nhan cd dang ky va cac hinh thflc thay thd'khac dan bi xda nhda thi thirc su bdt dau qua trinh phi the chl hda hdn nhan (Treas J va cgng su, 2014: 1497) Cac sd lieu va phan tich dudi day se minh chung cho nhflng nhan dinh trdn Dac diem ket hon Ty le ket hon giam Trdn thuc td', xu hudng kd't hdn giam da didn manh me tfl nhung thap ky cudi ciia the ky 20 va van tid'p didn budc sang the ky 21 Theo sd lieu cua Hgi ddng Chau Au nam 2006 sau nhung nam 1980, ti id ket hdn lan dau lidn tuc giam va dao ddng khoang xa'p xl 0,6%, 0,7%, va 0,6% vao giai doan 2000 - 2005 tuong iing d khu vuc Tay Au (Ao, Phap, Tay DiJ'c Ha Lan, Thuy ST va Anh), Bdc Au (Dan Mach, Phdn Lan, Na Uy va Thuy Dien) va Nam Au (Y, Bd Dao Nha va Tay Ban Nha) (trfch theo Sobotka va Toulemon, 2008: 93) So lieu dua trdn ti Id kd't hdn iSn dau a tudi cu the ap dung cho ta't ca phu nfl khdng tfnh dd'n tinh trang hdn nhan, dd chi sd khdng the chi'nh xac Ngoai ra, ca ca'u tudi cua dan sd theo tinh trang kd't hdn thay ddi cung khid'n cho chi sd bi bdp meo Tuy nhidn vi day la phuang phap don gian va sdn co d hau he't cac nudc chau Au ndn nd cung gdp phdn phan anh so lugc vl xu hudng hdn nhan theo thdi gian NgiiytPn nhdn khie'n li le ket hdn gidm Xu hudng kd't hdn giam quan nidm ve vai trd cua hdn nhan dang thay ddi Quan diem hidn dai cho rdng hdn nhan nen la mgt cdng cu giiip ca nhan dat dugc su hoan thidn cudc sd'ng Hdn nhan khdng chi dap ung chiic nang tri gia dinh, ma quan trgng hon la dap irng nhu cau bidu cam (ddn theo Treas J va cdng su 2014: 1499) Dac diem va y nghTa ctia hdn nhan da cd nhung bid'n ddi Idn Sobotka va Toulemon (2008: 114-115) tirng md ta nghidn ciru cua minh rSng "vai trd cua vide kd't hdn suy giam cang trd ndn ro rang han thdng qua sir gia tang dang kl ciia tinh trang chung sd'ng khdng kd't hdn" Nhieu ngudi 72 Nghien CLTU Gia dinh va Gidi Quyen 24, so 6, tr 70-80 cd y dinh sinh nhung khdng earn tha'y cdn phai vdi vang kd't hdn, va vide mang thai khdng phai la yd'u td qua quan quye't djnh di dd'n hdn nhan hay khdng Dilu hoan loan trai ngugc vdi giai doan sau nhiing nam 70 cua the ky 20 ti Id di tdi hdn nhan eua nhflng cSp ddi sdng chung dat miic ra't cao Ngoai ra, gia dinh dugc hinh khdng chi theo mdt tieu chudn nhat la "kd't hdn khdng trai qua qua irinh sdng chung, sau dd sinh con", ma cd the cd nhiing Iua chgn khac phd bid'n hon "chung sd'ng - kd't hdn - sinh con", "chung sd'ng - sinh ddu long hoac thii hai - ke't hdn", hoac don gian hon la "chung sdng - sinh con" (trfch tir Sobotka va Toulemon 2008: 114-115) Mgi so'tdc dgng cita viec ty le ke't hdn gidm Quan didm trudc day cho rdng d da sd cac qudc gia, mdi quan he gifla hdn nhan va ti Id sinh thu&ng cung tang va cung giam, tflc la sir suy giam ti Id kit hdn se khid'n cac qud'c gia khdng dugc bo sung luc lugng Iao ddng tre tuong lai, keo theo su gia hda dan sd Tuy nhidn, nghidn ciiu cua Sobotka va Toulemon (2008: 85) da dua bdng chirng rdng md'i quan he khdng ludn iudn cung chilu: d Chau Au, nhiJng nSm dau thd'ky 21, nhung qud'c gia cd ti Id sinh cao nha't la nhung ndi cd ludi kd't hdn mudn nha'l, hidn tugng tre sinh ngoai hdn nhan va d cac cap ddi chung sd'ng khdng kd't hdn phd bid'n nhat, va ti Id ly hdn cao Vi thd', d nhilu qud'c gia, tinh trang giam ti Id kd't hdn khdng lien quan tdi tinh trang gia tang ti Id nam va nu lua chgn khdng sinh va khdng ke't hdn, ma nd chi lidn quan tdi su gia tang so Iugng nam va nfl lira chgn chung sdng khdng kit hdn va Iua chgn sinh ngoai hdn nhan Day la nhirng qud'c gia ma quan diem \-e va'n dl hdn nhan va chung sdng khdng kd't hdn da trai qua rat nhieu thay ddi, dd khdng cd md'i lidn ke't gifla kd't hdn va ti Id sinh (vi du, trudng hgp Thuy Dien) Bdn canh dd tai nhirng qud'c gia ma "gia dinh truyln thdng" vdn cd vai trd Idn nhu mdt thd che, thi ti Id kd't hdn va ti Id sinh cd quan he ciing chidu (vf du, trudng hgp Y) (trfch tir Sobotka va Toulemon, 2008: 128) Nhu vay, yd'u td ke't hdn giam khdng dugc phep nhin i^an la nguyen nhan quan trgng ddn tdi ti Id sinh thap d nhieu nudc chau Au Do tudi ket hdn trung binh lan d^u tang Dd tudi kd't hdn trung binh lan ddu (dugc hieu la dang k'} kd't hdn Idn dau tien, khdng phan biet da timg chung sd'ng khdng ke't hdn hay chua) cua nir gidi giai doan ttt nam 2000 - 2004 tid'p tuc tang ldn so vdi giai doan trudc Vf du, d cac nudc Tay Au (Phap Diic), va Nam Au (Tay Ban Nha, Y), tudi diu dat mflc phd bie'n trdn 28 tudi vao nam 2004, Phan Huyen Dan 73 SO vdi mtrc tiir 26 dd'n 28 tudi giai doan 1995 - 2000 Hay Thuy Didn thdi dilm tuong ting cd tudi kd't hdn trung binh lan dau cua nu tang tir mflc 23 - 25 tudi ldn trdn 26 ludi (sd lidu cua Hdi ddng Chau Au nam 2006, tn'ch tfl Sobotka va Toulemon, 2008: 96) Nguyen nhdn khie'n tuoi kel hdn tnmg binh Idn ddu ldng Tim hid'u nguydn nhan ciia vide tri hoan kd't hdn va chung sd'ng Ian ddu d xa hdi Tay Au va Bdc Au, cac nha nghidn ciiu nhan thay dd tudi kd't hdn trung binh ldn ddu tang Idn gdn liln vdi thuc td'la nidn keo dai thdi gian hgc tap va mong mud'n dn djnh cdng vide (trfch lfl Sobotka va Toulemon, 2008: 96) Nhu vay, co hdi giao due va sir nghidp chfnh la nhflng yd'u td quan trgng ma hidn dai hda mang lai, khid'n cho khudn mdu gia dinh thay ddi cac qud'c gia Nam Au, ngoai tac ddng ciia hidn dai hda, vide tri hoan cdn lidn quan tdi thuc td' la dd tudi ddi khdi ngdi nha cua bd me cung mudn hon kha nang dgc lap vl kinh te ciia nidn tai day gap nhilu khd khan hem nhu ty Id thdt nghidp cao, thj trudng mua ban nha cung nhdc, thj trudng thud nha ddt dd (Schroder, 2005: 5) Dang chu y Id d Nam Au ca trudng hgp cd kha nang ddc lap vl tai chi'nh, Ihi nidn cung dugc tu hon rat nhilu quan he tinh due (quan he tinh due va sinh la hai van dl ridng bidt), nen vide ddi khdi ngdi nha ciia bd me sdm khdng phai la ap luc dat cho hg, va hon nfla, vide chung sdng thdi gian dai nha bd me cung nhan dugc su cho phep va ung hd ciia bd me (trfch tfl Sobotka va Toulemon, 2008: 90) Cd the suy Iuan rdng su tach bidt giua tinh due, hdn nhan va sinh chinh la nguydn nhan ddn tdi tudi kd't hdn trung binh Ian dau tang Kd't qua trung vdi cac kd't qua nghien cuu trudc kia, va triing hap vdi trudng hgp Thuy Diln vdi tu each la nudc ddu lidn chiing kid'n su tri hoan tudi kdt hdn Idn dau vao nhiing nam 1960 (Sobotka va Toulemon, 2008: 95) Mdt nguydn nhan khdng the bd qua chfnh la dd tudi trung binh lan dau chung sd'ng (dd'i vdi cac cap ddi chung sdng khdng kd't hdn) cung tang Idn, keo theo dd tudi ke't hdn trung binh Ian dau tang ldn, ty Id cac cap ddi CSKKH trudc kit hdn thuc su rat cao (xem sd Iidu muc 3.) Sir tri hoan tang cham d cac qudc gia Tay Au va Bdc Au, nhung lai rat manh me tai cac qud'c gia Nam Au Vf du, d Phap, nu va nam sinh vao nhflng nam 1970 tri hoan thdi gian sdng chung lan ddu khoang hon hai nam (lUdng tbg vdi 21,5 va 23,8 tudi) so vdi thd'hd sinh vao nhflng nam 74 Nghien ctiu Gia dinh va Gidi Quyen 24, so 6, tr 70-80 1950 Trong dd, d V, chdnh ldch la nam (tuong flng vdi 26,5 tudi) d nfl gifla the he sinh vao nhflng nam 1950 va vao giai doan 19661970, Do ludi trung binh Ian ddu chung sd'ng ctia nam mdn Y cdn thay ddi manh hon, chi cd mdt phan tu thudc thi he sinh giai doan 1966-1970 bat dau cugc sd'ng chung d tudi 27 (trich tir Sobotka va Toulemon, 2008: 108) Mat sd'tdc dgng tuoi ke't hdn irung binh tdng len Khi dd tudi kd't hdn trung binh tang Idn, cau hdi dat la lidu dilu cd lam cho ludi sinh ldn dau lang Idn hay khdng Theo cac nha nghien cun vide kd't hdn bi tri hoan manh me hon vide sinh eon, va ti Id sd tre em sinh ngoai hdn nhan se d mflc cao nhat d dd tudi mdn d hau hd't cac qud'c gia, tudi kd't hdn ldn dau cao hon tudi sinh Ian dau Md hinh phd bid'n nhat d Thuy Dien, tudi kd't hdn lan dau thudng di sau ba nam so vdi dd tudi sinh Idn ddu Nhu vay nghi Id/thii tuc kd't hdn didn phd bid'n d cac cap ddi cd hon la d cac cap ddi chua cd (trfch tfl Sobotka va Toulemon, 2008: 114 - 115) Tham chf, ca vide sinh dugc tri hoan d dd tudi mudn hon, thi dieu cung dem lai tac ddng tich cue, chfl khdng phai tieu cue, vi day la tudi trudng va sdn sang cho vide nudi day dfla tre thi se cd hai thuan loi Thfl nha't, ngudi me (va ngudi bd nd'u thiia nhan dtia con) cd du thdi gian dc lam vide va tfch luy tai chfnh, nhu vay se chu ddng vide nudi ddu tu cho vide hgc tap va phat tridn cua cai Thfl hai, ngudi me cd du thdi gian de nang eao trinh dd hgc van ciia minh, tfl dd vide nudi day cai cung dat chat Iugng cao hon Day cd thi coi la mdt nhung phuong phap ddu lu hidu qua cho ngudn vd'n ngudi (Foreman-Peck, 2009: 3) Dac diem ly hon: ty le Iy hon cao Trong giai doan ddu thd'ky XXI, hau hd't cac nudc chau Au ddu chung kien ti Id ly hdn cao, phd bid'n d mflc gap tfl hai dd'n nam lan so vdi giai doan nhting nam 60 cua thd'ky trudc Sd lidu ciia Hdi ddng Chau Au nam 2006 (trfch tfl Sobotka va Toulemon, 2008: 110-111) cho tha'y cac nudc Bdc Au va Bi cd ti Id Iy hdn d mflc 50%, tflc la mdt nfla sd Iugng ke't hdn se kd't thtic bdng ly hdn Mgt sd nudc TSy Au (Ao Phap, Dflc) dat mflc xap xi 40% va cd xu hudng tang ldn Ha Lan giam nhe tfnh tir nam 2000 nhung vdn d ngudng eao 35% Cac nudc Nam Au nhu Y va Tay Ban Nha cd ti Id thap hon (khoang 15%) nhung lai cd xu hudng gia tang so vdi giai doan trudc nam 2000 Phan Huyen Dan 75 Nguyen nhdn kinen ty le ly hdn cao Nguydn nhan ddn tdi ty le Iy hdn cao cd nhilu, va mdt nhung nguydn nhan chu yeu dugc nhde den la su ddc lap vl mat kinh t l cua phu nfl cang Idn Phu nu cd nhilu co hdi tham gia vao thi trudng Iao ddng han dudi tac ddng cua qua trinh hiln dai hda va cac chfnh sach phuc lgi xa hdi danh cho phu nu chua tu chu vl kinh td' cflng td't hon (tn'ch tfl Sobotka va Toulemon, 2008: 112) Phu nfl cd ca hdi ddc lap tai chfnh, dac biet cting vdi su hd trg cua cac bidn phap tranh thai hidn dai cac CO hdi Iua chgn quyd't dinh cua hg - tfl trudc tdi chua tirng cd trd ndn nhilu ban: quydt djnh nao mud'n mang thai, tham chf nao va Iidu cd mud'n kit hdn hay khdng , nhiing quyen cd thd lam tang kha nang "can nhdc lai eudc hdn nhan" d nhiing ngudi da ket hdn (Cunningham, 2004) O mdt sd qud'c gia, khdng phai la nguydn nhan khid'n ly hdn gia tang, nhung Iuat phap ciing gdp phdn "binh thudng hda" ly hdn (vf du, trudng hgp Ha Lan) Nam 2001, Ha Lan dua mdl hinh thiic giai quyd't hdn nhan mdi, theo dd, mdt cap vg chong se thdng nhdt "ha mflc" hdn nhan cua minh xud'ng mfle quan he dd'i tac dugc dang ky, sau dd cd thi d i dang "giai tan" ma khdng nhal thid't phai dua vao sd sach dudi dang mdt vu Iy hdn (Sobotka va Toulemon, 2008: 110-112) Trong dd mdt sd qud'c gia khac khid'n cho mong mud'n ly hdn khdng dd dang dat dugc, dd ty Ie ly hdn thap hon so vdi cac nudc Bdc Au va Tay Au Cac nudc Ireland, "f' va Tay Ban Nha quy djnh ly than hgp phap la dieu kidn tidn quyd't hoac mdt hinh thflc thay thi cho ly hdn hoan toan Tuy nhidn, xu hudng gia tang ty Id ly hdn d cac qudc gia mdt Idn nfla khdng dinh luat phap chi cd vai trd hgp phap hda ly hdn, chfl khdng phai la nguyen nhan ciia ly hdn Thuc tranh cai vl vai trd cua lual phap vdi ty Id gia tang ly hdn da diln sudt nhflng thap ky gan day, va Ingleharl (2008) bd'i canh Tay Ban Nha va Y giai doan nhifng nam 1970 da limg nhan manh "can dat cau hdi vi iy hdn da trd hgp phap cf cac nudc nay", hon la vice "budc ldi" lual phap da day manh Iy hdn Mgi si) ldc dgng ty le ly hdn cao Nghidn cun cua Bernardi va Radi (2014 1670 - 1671) thuc hidn d 14 qud'c gia, dd cd Ao, Bi, Phap Y, Ha Lan va Nauy chi rdng cha me ly hdn cd tac ddng anh hudng tidu cue lau dai ddi vdi trinh hoc van ciia tre Trung binh, hau qua ciia vide ly hdn lac dgng tdi 7% co hgi lay bdng dai hgc ciia cai, va dac bidt nang ne hdn dd'i vdi tre cd cha me cd trinh 76 Nghien curu Gia dinh va Gidt Quyen 24, so 6, tr 70-80 hge van eao (12%) Nghidn eiiu eua Erola and Jalovaara (tn'ch lfl Bernardi va Radi, 2014) cung cho kd't qua tuong tu d Phan Lan Tuy nhidn, kit qua trdn cdn ehiu su anh hudng cua dac diem he thd'ng giao due Vf du mflc phan tdng giao due thap, vide cha me Iy hdn cd xu hudng lam giam mflc dd ba't binh dang dd'i vdi cd hdi giao due Ci mdl nghidn ciiu khac, Carol Smart va cdng su (tn'ch lit Gillies, 2003: 13) tap trung vao van dl tre em cua hau Iy hdn sdng nhu thi nao Hg lap Iuan rang thay vi xem Ire em la nan nhan, vide cha me ly hdn tham chi giflp ddy manh tfnh dan chii quan he cha me va cai Ly hdn la kd't qua tfl nhiing va'n de nghidm trgng didn mdi quan he gia dinh, vi the, can cd su danh gia lai ve vai trd va each hanh xii gia dinh Khi dd, cai duge phep chu ddng hon tham gia vao vdn de dan xd'p gia dinh va quyd't djnh - nhu vay, Ihuc ehat, vide tre em dugc tham gia giai quyd't vdn dl anh hudng dd'n chung cdn dem lai gia tri nhilu hon so vdi su dao ldn cudc sd'ng hau ly hdn Tfl each nhin nhan nhu tren, su ba't dn ciia gia dinh dugc bu Iai bang su ghi nhan va tu chu Idn hem cho timg vidn gia dinh Ngoai ra, vdi each nhin nhan tfl gdc dd tfch cue, ti Id ly than va ly hdn gia tang khdng phai la da'u hidu chflng to ly tudng cua hdn nhan va gia dinh dang suy yd'u, ma la mdt dac didm cho thay ban cha't ciia hdn nhan dang thay ddi Gid day, mdi quan he vg chdng bao ham ky vgng cao hdn, hudng tdi mdi quan hd hai bdn eiing hai idng thda man Theo Ralph Fevre, xua't phat lfl quan didm va ky vgng vl mdi quan he tinh cam dd ma nhung eudc hdn nhan khdng hanh phflc dang dugc thay thd' cang nhieu bdi eae eudc ly di, gid'ng nhu mdl each ngudi ta di de "thu van may Idn thfl hai, thfl ba, hay Ihfl tu cua minh, vdi hy vgng cd the tim thay dd ed cung y nghT vdi minh" (trfch tfl Gillies, 2003: 8, 11) Dac diem chung song khong ket hon Chung sd'ng khdng kd't hdn dugc coi la hinh thuc phd bid'n nhat hidn thay thd'hdn nhan Mdi qude gia cd mdt dinh nghTa ve CSKKH, nhien, dua trdn cac bao cao nghidn cun, Treas J va cdng su (2014; 1496) dl xuat eae dac dilm cua cap ddi CSKKH bao gdm: chdt lugng quan hd Ihap hon so vdi cap ddi kd't hdn, ddng gdp chi lieu chung nhu nhau, Ioi ich kinh t l gidng nhau, tuong flng vl sflc khde va hanh phuc, tdn sual quan hd linh due cao hon, va nii ro chia tay cao han Mae dii CSKKH phd bie'n tdi mflc gdn nhu khdng cd su phan dinh xa hdi giua CSKKH va hdn nhan cd dang ky d cac qudc gia Bdc Au, nhung vdn tdn tai su khac bidt bat nguon tfl dac didm ft "nghidm trgng" han cua CSKKH so vdi hdn nhan cd dang Phan Huyen Dan 77 ky: ngudi ta cd the vdn vui ve chung sdng vdi ngudi ma hg khdng sdn sang kd't hdn (Maenpaa va Jalovaara 2014: 1785) Tai khu vuc Tay Au va Bde Au, vai thap ky gan day, CSKKH gdn nhu thay thi hoan loan hdn nhan lira chgn lan dau chung sd'ng (vf du trudng hgp Thuy Diln) Tai Phap CSKKH tang dot bid'n til giai doan 1965 (10%) dd'n 1995 (90%) Nguydn tdc "sd'ng chung trudc, sau dd kd't hdn, hoac khdng bao gid kd't hdn" dugc ting hd rdng rai d nhdm sinh vdo nhung nam 60 ciia the ky trudc d Ao va Ha Lan (Sobotka va Toulemon 2008: 99-100) O cac nudc Bdc Au, gdn nhu khdng cd suphan bidt vl mat xa hdi giua CSKKH va cap vg chdng cd kit hdn Cfl mudi cap ddi Phdn Lan quye't djnh chung sd'ng thi cd tdi chfn cap la CSKKH (trfch tfl Maenpaa va Jalovaara 2014: 1771) Tuy nhidn, tfl dinh nghTa, CSKKH da khdng dugc ky vgng la bin vflng hem chung sd'ng cd kd't hdn Trin thuc tl, ke ca nhung nudc cd ti Id CSKKH rdt cao nhu Phdn Lan thi mudi nam kl tfl cac cap ddi bdt dau hinh CSKKH, chua tdi 40% sd dd chuyen kd't hdn, va cd tdi hon 50% di tdi "giai tan" (trfch tfl Maenpaa va Jalovaara, 2014) Tai cac nudc Dja Trung Hai hinh thflc chung sdng vdn cdn kha de dat, CSKKH cd vai trd nhu giai doan ddu chuan bi chuyen sang chung sd'ng ke't hdn Tuy chua phd bid'n nhung khu vuc Nam Au cung dang chung kiln phong trao CSKKH mdt manh me ban: the hd tre eua Y (dac bidt d khu vue Trung va Bdc Y) cd trinh hgc va'n cao di da.u phong trao nay, CSKKH mac du sd lugng edn han che nhtmg da cd su gia tang nhanh chdng tfl sau nhung nam 90 cua the ky trudc dTay Ban Nha (trfch lfl Sobotka va Toulemon 2008: 99-100) Nguyen nhdn khie'n CSKKH lid nen phd bie'n, mac dit de ddi a mot sd khu vif( d Tay Au va Bdc Au, nhu da dl cap, gan nhu khdng cd su phan bidt vl mat xa hdi gifla CSKKH va cap vg ehdng cd kit hdn CSKKH dugc ea xa hdi cha'p nhan thi vide quyd't dinh chung sdng se gid'ng nhu cac hoat ddng thdng thudng khac Khdng ehi su cdi md ciia xa hdi ma ban than y thflc cua nhung ngudi cudc cung khdng coi nhe "lidn minh dd'i tac dn dinh" va vide sinh dua trdn su ddng thuan cua hai bdn Ngoai ra, nha nudc dcm lai co hdi binh ddng cho ta't ca cac cdng dan cho du thugc phdn x;T hdi nao (trfch tu Maenpaa va Jalovaara 2014: 1785-1786) gdp phan thuc ddy cac yd'u td nhu trinh dd hgc va'n kha nang tham gia vao thi trudng lao ddng vli thu nhap cao la dieu kidn dd cac cap ddi tid'n dd'n cudc sd'ng CSKKH Hon nfla, phap luat nhieu qudc gia (vf du Iceland 78 Nghien cufu Gia dinh va Gidi Quyen 24, so 6, tr 70-80 Nauy, Thuy Dien Tay Dflc cu (nam 2005), va sau la Phap) cd lual bao ve quyln lgi cfla ngudi me va nhflng dfla ire sinh ngoai hdn nhan, khid'n cho cugc sdng cua eae cap ddi CSKKH khdng he cd tfnh rui ro hay de dga, dac bidt ddi vdi Ire em Trong dd khae vdi khu vuc Tay Au va Bdc Au, CSKKH klidng phd bid'n d Nam Au cd nhilu yd'u td kim ham Schroder (2005: 1-6) long ke't ba nguyin nhan chii yd'u: thfl nha't eau true eua he thd'ng phuc lgi vdi cac quyln lgi xa hdi gdn liln vdi qua trinh tham gia vao thj trudng Iao ddng trudc dd cdng vdi li Id thdt nghidp cua nidn rdi cao khid'n cho nidn phai phu thudc vao cha me, Ihi Irudng nha d kha cflng nhdc va thud nha rat dat dd Thfl hai, nha nudc phflc Igi khdng quan tam tdi nhiing dich vu hd trg cho phu nfl, dae biet ho sinh eon Thfl ba, mdi rang budc gia dinh d cac nudc Dia Trung Hai kha ben chat chfl khdng nhu d Bdc Au, cac quyd't dinh ciia cai cdn di theo cac gia tri va chudn muc truyln thdng, va vide CSKKH vdn khdng dugc xa hdi chdp nhan se bj cha me trflng phat bdng each han che hd trg tai chfnh va nhflng hd trg khac Tuy nhidn thuc te gia tang ty Id CSKKH d khu vuc Nam Au cho thay nhu edu cang cao cua cac nhdm CSKKH vide cd dugc sir cdng nhan hgp phap vdi quan he khdng kd't hdn cua hg (trfch tfl Sobotka va Toulemon 2008: 99-100) Mgt so' tdc dgng CSKKH ngdy cdng trd nen bie'n Keo theo su gia tang ciia CSKKH la su gia tang sd lugng tre em sinh ngoai hdn nhan: 1/3 sd tre sinh khd'i EU-25 nam 2005 la ngoai hdn nhan (trfch tfl Sobotka va Toulemon 2008: 117) Quan diem phan dd'i sinh ngoai hdn nhan manh me nhat d khu vuc Nam Au (Tay Ban Nha, Bd Dao Nha, Hy Lap, va Y) va Ddng Au, vi hg eho rdng linh due khdng kd't hdn la sai trai nhflng dfla tre smh chju thidt thdi vi khdng dugc ea cha va me nudi dudng (tn'ch tfl Treas J va cdng su, 2014: 1502) Quan didm trdn ed nhilu dilm hgp Ij', vf du, irudng hgp tai Y, phu nu sinh con, hg buge phai ddi khdi thi trudng lao ddng va nhan dugc xSx ft hd trg tfl chfnh phu Ndu CSKKH, nam gidi khdng cd nghTa vu cham lo cho ngudi phu nfl sinh cho va ngudi phu nfl thudng khdng nhan dugc su hd trg tfl gia dinh, viec CSKKH va sinh ngoai gia thu khdng dugc xa hdi y cha'p nhan (Schroder, 2005: 4-5) Tuy nhidn, can cd su phan bill gifla nhung tre em dugc sinh va ngoai eae lidn minh dd'i lac on dinh Ddi vdi nhdm khdng sinh d mdt lien minh cd su ddng thuan, thi vide phan djnh dau la nhung ngudi me don than nudi mdt minh, va dau la nhirng cap ddi cd thi khdng sdng vdi Phan Huyen Dan 79 nhung van cd vai trd cua mdt "cap cha me" la mdt khd khan Thue td', d nhieu noi, dien hinh la cac nudc Bdc Au va phdn Idn eae nude Tay Au, ti Id sinh ngoai hdn nhan lang Idn khdng he phan anh mflc gia lang tuong flng cua cac gia dinh ba me don than, vi nhirng dfla tre duac smh cac md'i quan hd CSKKH bin vflng va dn dinh, vide dfla tre ddi xudt phat tfl kdhoach sinh eua eap ddi (trfch tfl Foreman-Peck, 2009: 3) Dl dam bao quyen lgi cho nhung dfla tre, eang nhilu qud'c gia dua luat cdng nhan tre sinh ngoai hdn nhan, vf du Estonia, Iceland, Nauy, Thuy Diln Tay Dflc cQ (nam 2005), va sau la Phap Mdt dilm thfl vi la nhung qud'c gia Bdc Au di dau va nhanh hidn tugng thi ti Id tre sinh ngoai hdn nhan eung dat mflc dn dinh lfl sau cud'i nhung nam 90 CLia thd' ky trudc, sau sd tre ngoai hdn nhan chid'm 50% ldng sd tre dugc sinh (trfeh tfl Sobotka va Toulemon, 2008: 117) Ket luan Xu hudng hdn nhan d cac xa hdi Tay Au, Bde Au va Nam Au' hidn deu theo khudn mdu: giam ty Id kit hdn, tang ty Ie CSKKH va su xudt hidn cang nhidu cac va'n dl ba't dn gia dinh Tuy cung chung xu hudng, nhung mflc dd bid'n ddi cd su khac giua cac khu vuc: Tay Au va Bdc Au tuang dd'i dong nha't (ty Id CSKKH eao ky luc tfl nhflng nam 1990 va vdn Iri thi ky XXI ndn td'c tang thi ky XXI khdng qua ddt bic'n; xa hdi va phap luat cdi md hon dd'i vdi cac lua chgn sdp xd'p cudc sd'ng khae cua ngudi ), Nam Au gifl sde thai ridng (ty Id CSKKH thap nhung dang tang Idn rd rdt; xa hdi va phap luat edn nhilu khat khe dd'i vdi cac lua ehgn sdp xd'p cudc sd'ng khac cua ngudi nhung nhu cdu Ihuc le didn tai day da khdng ngimg dugc the hidn ) Mdt sd nhan djnh trudc vl anh hudng cua nhung xu hu'dng cd nhilu diem lidu eue, nhung nhin nhan thdi dai mdi da cd nhilu diem "minh oan" va hon nfla la theo hudng tich cue: khdng ''d6 ldi" cho giam ty Id kd't hdn va tang dd ludi kd't hdn/chung sdng lan ddu la nguydn nhan giam ly Id sinh; ly hdn khdng han la lua chgn sai lam va gay hau qua, tham chf nhilu trudng hgp la giai phap giai thoat va dem lai tuang lai td't dep han cho nhung ngudi eudc; CSKKH se khdng de doa su dn djnh cugc sd'ng ciia ba me va ire em neu phap iuat cd nhung quy dinh bao vd nhung dd'i tugng nay; Vi the, chung ta cung can danh gia cac md hinh d gdc dd khaeh quan de thdy dugc ca mat tfch eue va tidu cue, tu dd cd nhung giai phap hop ly.B 80 Nghien cUu Gia dinh va Gidi Quyen 24, so 6, tr 70-80 Tai lieu trich ddn Bernardi Fabrizio & Radi, Jonas 2014 The long-term consequences of parental divorce for children's educational atlainmeni Demographic Research Volume 30 Article Pages 1653-1680 Published 27 May 2014 Cunningham, James P 2004 Marriage in lite 21 st cenluiy Michigan Bar Journal Foreman-Peck, James 2009 Tbe western European marriage pattern and economic development Cardiff Economics Workmg Papers No E2009/15 Gillies Vai 2003 Families & Social Capital ESRC Research Group Working Paper No Published by South Bank University Ingleharl Ronald 2008 Hien dai hoa va hau hien dai hoa Vien Khoa hpc xa hoi Viet Nam - Vien Nghien cflu Con ngudi NXB Chinh tri Qudc gia backMaenpaa Elina & Jalovaara Marika 2014 Homogamy in socio-economic and the dissolution of cohabiting unions ground and education, Demographic Research Volume 30 Article 65, Pages 1769-1792 Schroder, Christin 2005 Cohabitation in Italy: Do Parents Matter? MPIDR Working Papei W P 2005-030 September 2005 Demographic Research Sobotka, Tomas & Toulemon Laurent 2008 Changing family and partnership behaviour: Common trends and persistent diversity across Em ope Demographic Research Volume 19 Article Pages 85-138 Published 01 July 2008 Stein Willen & Pavetic 2014 Couples' decision making on Demographic Research Volume 30 Article 63 Pages 1697 Published June 2014 fertility 1732 Treas, Judith el al 2014 Atlilitdes on marriage and new relationships: Crossnational evidence on the deinslilutionalization of marriage Demographic Research Volume 30 Article 54 Pages 1495-1526 Published 2014  ... qud''c gia Nam Au Vf du, d Phap, nu va nam sinh vao nhflng nam 1970 tri hoan thdi gian sdng chung lan ddu khoang hon hai nam (lUdng tbg vdi 21, 5 va 23,8 tudi) so vdi thd''hd sinh vao nhflng nam 74... gidi giai doan ttt nam 2000 - 2004 tid''p tuc tang ldn so vdi giai doan trudc Vf du, d cac nudc Tay Au (Phap Diic), va Nam Au (Tay Ban Nha, Y), tudi diu dat mflc phd bie''n trdn 28 tudi vao nam. .. 70-80 1950 Trong dd, d V, chdnh ldch la nam (tuong flng vdi 26,5 tudi) d nfl gifla the he sinh vao nhflng nam 1950 va vao giai doan 19661970, Do ludi trung binh Ian ddu chung sd''ng ctia nam mdn