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NHIN LAI MO HINH PHAT TRIEN VI CON NGlTOfl CUA VIET NAM GIAI DOAN 2011-2015 VA N H U N G KHUYEN NGHI CHINH SACH Ngo Thang Lgi Khoa Ki hogch vd Phdt triin, Tru&ng Dgi hoc Kinh ti Qudc ddn EmaU: loisonglong@yahoo.com Ngay nhan: 6/9/2016 Ngay nhan ban sira: 17/10/2016 Ngay duyet dang: 25/10/2016 Tom tat: Bdi viit su dung cdng cu phdn tich kinh ti, ddnh gid tdc dpng cua tdng tru&ng din mpt sd khia cgnh ciia tiin bp xd hpi, tie riit kit ludn vi md hinh phdt triin vi ngu&i cua Viit Nam thi hiin thi ndo giai dogn 2011-2015 Kit qud phdn tich cho thdy: tdng tru&ng kinh ti co tdc dpng tich cue din tiin bp xd hpi tren khia cgnh: ndng cao mite sdng ddn cu, gidm ngheo vd phdt triin nguai Tuy nhien, mite dp tdc dpng dang cd xu hu&ng gidm di khd nhanh, nhdt Id khia cgnh phdt triin ngudi Tit viec ddnh gid md hinh phdt triin vi ngu&i cua Viet Nam dang cd xu hucmg suy gidm, bdi viit dua mpt sd khuyen nghi chinh sdch di ddm bdo su tdc ddng tich cue han cua tdng trucmg din tiin bp xd hpi, thuc hiin duac muc tieu phdt triin vi nguai ciia Viet Nam th&i gian t&i Tir khda: Tien bd xa hpi; thu nhap thyc; ngheo khd; phat trien ngudi Reassessing the people-centered economic development model in Vietnam for the period 2011 - 2015 and some recommendations Abstract: By using economic analysis tools, the paper aims to assess the impact of economic growth on social advancement in order to draw conclusions of the effects of the development for the people in 2011 - 2015 The results show that economic growth has positive impacts on social advancement in three aspects that is increasing living standard, poverty reduction, and human development However, the pace of the effects on all these aspects is decreasing, particularly for human development Basing on those results, the paper provides some policy recommendations to ensure the positive impact of economic growth on social advancement, and to enhance the effects of the people-centered economic development model in the coming time Keywords: Social advancement, real income, poverty, human development Gidi thieu nang cao chat lupng cudc sing cua nhan dan" Vipt Nam, md hinh phat toiin vi ngudi da Thyc ti, Viet Nam da thyc bien dupe md hinh dupe thi bien rd d quan diim Chiin lupc phat nhu tbi nao, cflng ed khdng it cac nghien ciiu tiien kinh ti - xa bdi 2001-2010: "Phat ttiin nhanh, toong nudc vdi nhung kit qua nhit dinh Nguyin Ki bieu qua, ben vung, tang budng kinb ti di ddi thyc Tuin (2011) kbi danh gia kinb ti Viet Nam giai doan hien tiin bd xa bdi va bao ve mdi tiiidng" Giai doan 2001 -2010 da khing djnh nhung thanhtorntt-udng 2011-2020, quan diim tiep tue dupe dat ttong kinh ti nhanh da ed tac ddng tich cyc din xoa ddi chien lupc phat trien kinh te xa hdi: "Tang tradng giam ngheo va phat triin ngudi, thdng qua minh kinh te phai ket hpp hai boa vdi phat triin van hda, hpa cac si lieu vi ty le bd ngheo giam di va gia trj thyc hien tien bd va cdng bang xa hpi, khdng ngung HDI tang len ttong giai doan Tuy nhien, tac oia So 233 thdng 11/2016 32 da ket luan: diu tang tradng kinh ti ed tac ddng tich eye, nhung phat triin ngudi chua ed sy gia tang tu'ong irng vdi tang tradng kinb ti, nhit la dii vdi cac vung sau, vung xa hay cac doi tupng de bj tin thuang, sy lan toa cua tangtin:dngdin cac ddi tupng chua manh, sy phan hoa cd xu hudng tang len rd ret Ha Van Hiin & Nguyen Hdng Chuong (2013) di sau vao giai doan tii 2008 din 2013 di danh gia md hinh tang tradng kinh ti Viet Nam thdi ky bau khung hoang va suy thoai kinb te toan cau Nghien cim da dua cae sd lieu minh chimg ve: mirc thu nhap thuc cda dan cu cd xu budng giam di qua trinh tang tindng, bp phan nam sat ngudng ngheo chiim ty le cao va ludnfrongtinhfrangtai ngheo, nhung khoang each phan hoa cang ldn frong danh muc va quy md chi tieu cua hai bd phan dan cu giiu nhit va ngheo nhat, cac ITnh vyc xa hpi tdn tai nhiiu birc xuc dang lo ngai Tren cp sd dd cac tac gia da nhan xet: dudng nhu giua quan diem va hanh ddng, giua chinh sach va thyc te de thyc bien tang tradng kinb te gan vdi bao dam tien bd va cdng bang xa hpi cdn nhung khoang each ldn, chua ke da cd nhung sai sdt tii chien lupc phat trien qudc gia Ngd Thang Loi & Tran Thj Van Hoa (2016) kbi phan tich vi cac ddng lyc tang trudng kinh te giai doan 2011-2014, bing nhftng sd beu ve ty le hd ngheo, gia frj HDI va eac chi sd phan anb bat cdng bang phan phdi thu nhap cua nam 2011- 2014 cflng da nhan xet: md hinh phat frien vi eon ngudi cua Viet Nam qua trinh thuc bien myc tieu tang tradng nhanh dang cd xu hudng bi yeu dan di, da cd nhieu nhiing tac ddng khdng tich cyc hoac hieu irng tich cyc giam dan cua tang tradng den xda ddi giam ngheo, cdng bang xa hdi hay giai quyet viec lam De dat dupe mue tieu tren, bai viet chu yeu sir dyng (i) cdng cy tinh toan djnb lupng cap nhat dupe cac td chuc phat trien the gidi su dyng de ludng mdi quan be gifta tang tmdng vdi miic sdng dan cu (so sanh tang trudng thu nhap va thu nhap thye) vdi xda ddi giam ngheo (be sd tang tracmg vi giam ngheo) va vdi phat trien ngudi (phucmg phap sir dyng dudng vanh dai phat trien ngudi, he sd tang trudng vi ngudi); (ii) Phuong phap so sanh chudi dupe sir dung de danh gia xu hudng thay ddi tac dpng cua tang tradng den phat trien ngudi giai doan 2011-2015 vdi eac giai doan trade Khung ly thuyet Kinb te hpc phat frien da chi rd: Phat frien nen kinh te la qua trinh dien ddng thdi gifta phat trien ITnh vye kinh te va phat frien ITnh vye xa hdi Tuy nhien, tren thyc te, eac qudc gia da cd nhieu sy lya chpn khac nhau: Hoac nhan manh tang tradng nhanh, hoac nhan manh cdng bang xa hpi, hoac ket hpp tang tradng nhanh vdi tien bd, cdng bang xa bdi tu dau va toan tien trinh phat trien Hudng thu ba chinb la sy lya theo chpn md binh (con dudng) phat trien vi ngudi Md hinb phat trien vi eon ngudi xac djnh myc tieu eua phat ttien ITnh vyc kinh te la vi ngudi, coi ngudi la trang tam cua phat ttien Theo md hinh nay: (i) Con ngudi la dpng lyc chinb ciia qua trinh tao nen qua cua tang tradng kinh te (tao thu nhap); (ii) qua cua tang tradng phai dupe phan phdi hpp ly va tich cyc cho muc tieu cai thien sy tien bd xa bpi, ttong dd nhan manh den: nang cao muc sdng dan cu, phat trien ngudi, mpt phan quan trpng danh cho viee xoa ddi giam ngheo va thyc hien cdng bang xa hpi De thyc hien md hinb nay, can nhan manh den cac chinh sach thuc hien sy lan toa tieh cyc cua tang trudng kinh te den cac khia canb tien bd xa bdi: (i) Thuc hien tang tradng nhanh de cai thien thu nhap, la CO sd cho viee nang cao mirc sdng dan cu; (ii) tao CO hdi cho mpi vien frong xa bdi (ke ea nhiing ngudi yeu the, vung cham phat frien, ngudi ngheo) dupe tham gia vao viee tryc tiep tao thu nhap; (iii) phan phdi hop ly ngudn thu nhap cho cac ITnh vyc phat trien ngudi; (iv) thyc hien cac chinb sach phan phdi lai tryc tiep va gian tiep thu nhap cho cac tang lap dan cu vdi cac co hdi phat trien khae Bai viet nay, tren co sd ke thira nhiing nghien cira trade, dat mdt sd myc tieu mdi ban, dd la: (i) Dua fren bd sd beu day du ciia giai doan 2011-2015, su dung cdng cy tinh toan djnh lupng (eac ehi sd the hien tac ddng lan toa cua tang tradng den ba ITnh vuc muc sdng dan cu, xoa ddi giam ngheo va phat frien eon ngudi), de phan tieh va ed nhiing kit luan ve anb hucmg cua tang tradng kinb ti din tiin bd xa hdi nhu the nao; (ii) Tim nhiing xu budng tieu cyc (ngupc) ve sy tac ddng eua tang tradng kinb ti din khia canh tien bd xa bdi tren co sd so sanh vdi cac giai doan hnidc de cd ket luan vi md hinb phat Theo each lap luan tren, de danh gia thyc trang triin vi ngudi cua Viet Nam dang cd xu budng md binh phat trien vi ngudi can tap trang vao bj vi pham va nguyen nhan cua tinh trang nay; (iii) phan tich tac dpng lan toa cua tang trucmg den ba Di xuit nhung djnb hudng va kiin nghj diiu chinb khia canb chinb cua tien bd xa hdi, dd la nang cao chinb sach de thuc bien tit bon md binh phat triin vi mite sdng dan cu, xoa ddi giam ngheo va phat trien eon ngudi d Viet Nam ngudi Cu thi: Sd 233 thdng 11/2016 33 Tdc dp tang tru&ng thu nhgp thuc (GNl/ngu&i) Mirc sdng dan cu tang len thudng dupe phan anb qua sy gia tang chi tieu, va tbi bien cu the qua dieu kien cin thiit, dd la ddng thai thay ddi eua miic thu nhap thyc, dd la mue thu nhap binh quan dau ngudi (GNI/ngudi) dat dupe sau da loai trit yeu ti lam phat gia ea tieu dimg (CPI) Diing tten gde dp nin kinh ti, tic dp tang tradng thu nhap thyc binh quan diu ngudi cd xu budng tang len, tham chi tang nhanh ban tie dp tang ti-udng thu nhap danh nghTa va nhanh bon tic dp tang tradng GDR phan anh sy lan tda tich cyc ciia tang tradng den nang cao muc sing dan cu va ngupc lai Diiu mudn nhan manh din cae chinh sach tang tin-dng nhanh phai gin vdi cac chinh sach kiim che lam phat va phai budng tdi myc tieu cuii cung la de nang cao miic sing dan cu, tuc la tao diiu kien cho ngudi dan ban dja phai la luc lupng ddng vai trd chinh viee tao thu nhap Hi s6 tang truimg vi giam ngheo (GEI) Tac ddng cua tang tradng din giam ngheo dupe thi bien rd net nhit qua He so tdng tru&ng vi gidm ngheo (he si eo gian eua giam ngheo vdi tang tradng - Growth Elasticity of Poverty) Chi si phan anh cd bao nhieu phin tram thay ddi ty le ngheo ed 1% tang tradng thu nhap binh quan diu ngudi Neu gia trj nhan dupe cua chi sd la am cho thay tdc dp tang tm'dng va ty le ngheo la ngupc chieu nhau, bic la tang tmdng cd tac dyng tit den giam ngheo Trong tmdng hpp gia frj tuyet ddi eua ehi sd nhan dupe cang cao the hien tang tmdng kinh te cua qudc gia cd lan tda cang tdt cho xda ddi giam ngheo De thyc bien tit sy tac ddng nay, qua frinh thyc hien tang tmdng nhanh, can hudng tdi: (i) Tao dieu kien cho ngudi ngheo, -viing cham phat ttien ed eo hdi tham gia tao nen qua tang tradng; (ii) thyc hien tdt chinh sach phan phdi lai thu nhap cho vung ngheo, ngudi ngheo Bu&ng vanh dai phdt triin ngu&i vd he sd tdng tru&ng vi ngu&i Theo bd tieu chi su: dyng hien nay, phat trien ngudi dupe danh gia qua chi si phat ttien nguai (HDI) va phan anh khia eanh vi nang luc phat triin eon ngudi: nang lyc tai chinb, nang lyc tri lyc va nang lyc tbi lyc Danh gia tac dpng cua tang tra'dng din phat triin ngudi, cd tbi sii dung hai edng cy la Dudng vanh dai phat tiiin ngudi va He sd tang tradng vi ngudi - Dud-ng vanh dai phdt triin ngu&i la tap hop tit ca nhflng diim cd chi si HDI ldn nhit hiang iing vdi moi miie thu nhap nhit djnb Tu'c la, tai diim do, tang tradng thu nhap dat dupe miic hieu qua nhat viec chuyin boa cac tyu phat ttien ngudi Niu ehi si HDI cua mdt quic gia cu thi cang nim gin dudng vanh dai phat ttiin eon ngudi thi quie gia dd cd frinh dp phat triin ngudi cang sat vdi miie cao nhit dieu kien cd miic miic thu nhap - Hi sd tdng tnt&ng vi ngu&i (GHR) dp co gian eua qua phat triin ngudi theo tang tou'cmg kinh ti He si phan anh mpt phanttamtang thu nhap binh quan diu ngudi tang len se cai thien dupe bao nhieu phin ttam vi qua phat tiien ngudi Niu GHR nhan gia tii duong se eho thiy phat trien ngudi dang dupe eai thien nhd vao tang tradng kinh te Niu gia tri cua GHR cang cao thi hieu qua tang tradng vi myctieuphat trien eon ngudi cang dupe danh gia la cang cao va ngupc lai Nhin lai mo hinh phat trien vi ngu-di 6Viet Nam giai doan 2011-2015 3.1 Bdnh gid tdc dpng cua tang tru&ng den cdc khia cgnh tien bp xd hpi Thit nhdt, tdc dpng cua tdng tru&ng din ndng cao miec sdng ddn cu Cae gia trj ve tang tm'dng thu nbfip va tang tradng Bang 1: Thu nhap binh quan dau ngirdi va tang trudng thu nhap thurc Don vj tinh: Trieu ddng, % Nam GNI/ngudi (theo gia hien hanh) Toe dp tang GNI/ngudi danh nghTa CPI binh quan nam so vdi nam trudc Tang trudng GNI/ngudi thuc tg Tang trudng GDP/ngudi 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 30.283 26,83 18,58 8,25 5,2 35.088 15,87 9,21 6,66 4,19 38.269 9,07 6,60 2,47 4,37 41.495 8,43 4,09 4,34 4,90 43.803 5,56 2,05 3,51 6,68 Ngudn: Tinh todn tiesd liiu cita Tdng cue Thong ki (2016) Sd 233 thdng 11/2016 34 Kiniitiyiiattrien Bang 2: Ty 1§ ngheo theo chuin ngheo 2USD/ngay (PPP) va he si co gian giam ngheo theo tang truoTig thu nhap Nam T6C giam ngheo T6C tang GDP/ngu-6i He so CO gian giam ngheo theo thu nhap 2001-2006 -12,65% 3,26% -3.88 2006-2010 -28,75% 7,46% -3.85 2010-2015 -20,24% 15,26% -1.33 Ngudn: Tinh todn tiesd lieu the World Bank (2016) thu nhap thyc tinh binh quan dau ngudi (GNI/ngudi) va tdc dp tang GDP cua Viet Nam giai doan 20112015 dupe sir dyng va tinh toan qua bd sd lieu eua Tdng eye Thdng ke (2016), ket qua the hien qua Bang tang gap ddi so vdi giai doan 2006-2010 nhung he sd eo gian cua giam ngheo vdi tang tradng chi bang 1/3, dieu cho thay tac ddng lan tda tii tang tra-dng kinh te den giam ngheo da giam manh Giai doan 2010-2015, he sd eo gian eua giam ngheo theo thu nhap nhan gia trj nhd nhat so vdi giai doan 2006- 2010 va 2001- 2005 Diiu cho thiy md hinb tang tra'dng hien tai da giam dan hieu lyc tac ddng den giam ngheo, ket qua cua tang tracing lan tda den giam ngheo mdt yeu di, phan anh xu the giam ngheo se khd khan bon toong giai doan tdi cho du tang tracmg cd dat cao ban Bang cho thay: (i) Tdc dp tang tradng thu nhap thuc cua Viet Nam giai doan 2011 -2015 ed bieu hien len xudng that thudng, neu so vdi nhirng nam dau cua giai doan tbi nhftng nam sau dang cd xu huong giam di Nam 2015 tdc dp tang tracmg thu nhap thyc ehi bang 40% so vdi nam 2011 Nhflng nam cudi cda giai doan 2011-2015, ty le lam phat dupe giua d miic dp thap, nhien tde dp tang tradng thu nhap danh ngbla lai thap, nen tdc dp tang tradng thu nhap thyc dat miic thap Mpt van de nfta, tdc dp tang tradng thu nhap thyc cua nhiing nam sau thap hem nhieu so vdi tdc dp tang trudng GDP da phan anb sy lan toa cua tang trucmg toong nam tod lai day chu yeu ed tac dpng tich eye eho eac nha dau tu nudc ngoai, cdn ddi vdi ngudi dan Viet Nam su tac ddng cua tang tradng cd xu budng giam dan Thie ba, tdc dpng cita tdng tru&ng din phdt trien ngu&i - Du&ng vanh dai phdt triin ngu&i Dya vao sd lieu cua UNDP (2015), dudng vanh dai phat toien eon ngudi dupe md ta tii 1990 den 2015 va gia trj nhan dupe cua HDI d Viet Nam dupe the hien qua Hinb Hinh cho thay, neu nam 2010, Gia trj HDI eua Viet Nam nam toen dudng vanh dai phat toien Thii hai, tdc dpng cua tdng tru&ng din gidm ngheo ngudi, dieu dd phan anh Viet Nam dat dupe Bai viet su dung chuan ngheo qudc te (2 la/ qua cao nhat ma tang tru'dng kinb te tac dpng den ngudi ngay, gia PPP) theo each tiep can cua Ngan phat toien ngudi Tuy nhien, giai doan 2011hang The gidi (WB) Theo dd, tii sd lieu ty le hd 2015 khoang gian each ciia gia trj HDI so vdi cac ngheo va tdc dp tang tradng thu nhap binh quan dau giatojnhan dupetoendudng vanh dai cang xa, ngudi qua nhieu nam (tii 2001 den 2015) va chia nam cudi cung khoang each nhan gia tri cao nhat lam giai doan tinh toan, giatojnhan dupe cda he sd Dieu dd phan anh bieu img cua tang tradng kinh te tang tradng vi giam ngheo cua Viet Nam dupe trinh ddi vdi phat trien eon ngudi ed xu budng giam dan giai doan 2011-2015 bay Bang - He sd tdng tru&ng vi nguai (GHR) Bang cho thay be sd co gian gifta tang tradng Vdi lap luan nhu phan khung ly thuyet, chi sd GDP/ngudi va ty le giam ngheo thdi gian qua diu cd gia tii am, chung td tang tradng kinh ti cd Ian tda GHR dupe tinh toan theo bd sd lieu eua UNDP tich cyc din giam ngheo Tuy nhien, he sd dang (2015) va gia trj nhan duoc eua Viet Nam giai doan ed xu budng giam vi mat gia tri tuyet dii, tii -3,88 2001-2015 nhan dupe the hien d Bang giai doan 2001-2005 va -3,85 giai doan 2006 -2010, Viet Nam da cd tdc dp tang tradng kinb te kha va la -1,33 giai doan 2010-2015 Dae biet, giai doan nhanh, GDP/ngudi tang gin gip ba (tii 1.704 USD 2011-2015, tic dp tang GDP/ngudi (theo gia PPP) nam 2000 len 5.295 USD nam 2015) Ciing vdi Sd 233 thdng 11/2016 35 Hinh 1: Dirdng vanh dai phat trien ngudi va gia trj nhan dirgfc ciia Viet Nam 0.66 0.65 0.68 0.72 0.72 °-^^-6S 0.66 0.67 ^ 0.8 0.7 0.65 0.66 0.66 0.6 0.5 0.62 O-^"* 0.65 0.66 0.67 0.48 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 1985 1995 1990 2015 2010 2005 2000 2020 =HDI-VN -HDI Max Ngudn: Sir dung sd lieu UNDP (2015) Bang 3: GHR cua Viet Nam giai doan 2001-2015 Nam GDP/ngu-M (USD PPP) 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 B Q 2001-2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 B Q 2006-2010 1.704 1.799 1.896 2.006 2.127 2.274 1935 2.427 2.578 2.695 2.838 2.995 2706 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 4486 4717 4912 5092 5295 % Y HDI (%) Giai doan 2000-20IC* 0,505 0,513 5,56907 0,519 5,39160 0,526 5,80179 0,533 5,99971 0,540 6,90224 0,526 5,93288 6,72921 0,547 0,554 6,23855 4,55039 0,559 5,31001 0,566 5,50863 0,572 5,66735 0,559 Giai doan 2011-2015 ** 0,629 4,897180 0,632 3,969869 0,635 3,664495 0,638 3,986646 0,666 % HDI (%) GHR 1,4523983 1,3091195 1,3076047 1,2804652 1,3410188 1,3381216 1,3417885 1,2452795 1,0229842 1,0896125 1,0932408 1,1585813 0,2607968 0,2428071 0,2253792 0,2134208 0,1942874 0,2273821 0,1993975 0,1996103 0,2248120 0,2051996 0,1984595 0,2054954 0,474683 0,472440 0,470219 4,388715 0,096929 0,119006 0,128318 0,100854 Nguon: Tinh todn titsd lieu UNDP (2015) Ghi chu: *: USD PPP ndm 2005 **USD PPP ndm 2011 nhftng tyu ve kinh te thi van d i phat triin ngudi cflng cd nhieu chuyen bien tich eye Chi s i HDI cua Viet Nam tang qua cac nam, tu 0,505 nam 2000 len 0,572 nam 2010 va 0,666 nam 2015 (theo Bao cao phat trien ngudi 2015 eua UNDP) n i m toong nhdm cac qudc gia cd chi s i phat triin eon ngudi trang binh Ket qua tinh toan chi sd lan tda cila tang tradng din phat triin ngudi (GHR) qua Bang cho thay: Sd 233 thdng 11/2016 (i) Trong thdi gian qua, ke tii 2001 den nay, tang tracmg kinh te ludn cd tac ddng lan tda tich cyc den phat trien eon ngudi: gia tri GHR ludn nhan gia tri duong va dieu van khdng ngoai le xet rieng giai doan 2011-2015 (ii) Tuy vay, bieu ring tich eye dang cd xu hudng giam din giai doan 2001-2010 Nam 2001, chi sd GHR dat 0,261 tbi din 2006 giam xuing 0,199 va 2010 cdn 0,198, tiic la giam khoang 30% muc dp tac 36 nen 2006-2010 (dat 6,31%) Sy suy giam tang tradng GDP, kem theo sy suy giam cua khu vyc san xuat nudc da lam eho thu nhap binh quan dau ngudi (tinh theo GNI/ngudi) giam di nhanh hem miic giam cua lam phat tinh theo chi sd PCI da la mpt nguyen nhan lam giam hieu img cua tang tmdng den mye Nhu vay, giai doan 2011-2015, mac du Viet tieu phat trien vi eon ngudi Sy giam sut tang tradng Nam van tri dupe sy gia tang cua chi sd HDI giai doan 2011-2015 la bau qua tat yeu eua sy GDP/ngudi tang nhung chi sd HDI tang cham lac hau md hinh tang trudng kinh te cua Viet ban nhieu so vdi sy gia tang eua GDP/ngudi, tiic la Nam vdn la md hinb tang tradng chu yeu theo chieu sy lan tda cua tangtirudngden phat triin ngudi rpng dya toen khai thac tai nguyen va lao dpng re Hieu irng cua chinh sach ehuyen ddi md hinh tang cang yeu di Tdm lai, giai doan 2011-2015, tang tradng kinh ti tradng kinh te rat cham chap, lam cho cac yeu td nhin chung van cd tac dpng tich cyc den eac yiu ti ddng lye tang tradng cua giai doan trd nen bat chinb cua tien bp xa hdi cho eon ngudi Tuy nhien, hop ly va la rao can ebi'nh eho tang tradng nhanh cae sd lieu thyc te eho thay mire dp tac dpng cua Thie hai, tdng tru&ng kinh te cd bieu hien bdt lai tang tmdng den cae yeu td dang cd xu hudng cho khu vuc npi dia noi chung va tdng l&p yeu the giam dan tren cae khia canh nghien cira Dieu dd ndi rieng chung td md hinb phat trien vi ngudi cua Viet - Tdng tru&ng nhanh chit yiu & khu vuc FDI Nam toong giai doan 2011-2015 dang cd xu hudng Theo Ngd Thing Lpi & Trin Thj Van Hoa (2016), van ddng khdng mong mudn, bieu iing eua md hinb giai doan 2011-2015, khu vyc FDI cd tdc dp tang ed bieu hien giam di Rat can thiet phai dieu tradng len tdi 7,72%), dd khu vye kinb te chinh cho giai doan sau nude chi dat tren 4,92% d khu vyc nha nudc 3.2 Nhung nguyin nhan chu yiu cua su- suy va 6,01%) d khu vyc ngoai nha nude Dieu lam gidm tdc dpng cua tdng tru&ng den tiin bp xd hpi eho bieu iing eua tang tracmg lan toa cho viec nang Thit nhdt, tdc dp tdng tru&ng kinh te giai dogn cao miic sdng dan cu va eac khia canh khae cua phat toien ngudi bj ban che vi phan thu nhap ehuyen 2011-2015 bi chitng lgi Hinb eho thay tfnh binh quan giai doan 2011- nudc ngoai chiem ty trpng cao, nhat la toong 2015 tang tmdng GDP chi dat 5,91%, thip nhit dieu kien FDI ehu yeu la gia edng hay khai thac tai toong giai doan 2001-2005 (dat 7,5%) va giai doan nguyen khoang san, qua thu nhap thupc ve dpng Giai doan 2011-2015, xu hudng giam cua chi sd GHR ed tie dp nhanh ban Nam 2011, GHR dat gia trj la 0,097 tbi 2014 giam xudng chi cdn 0,065 Neu so vdi nam 2001 thi giatoicua chi sd nam 2015 chi edn /4 Giai doan 2011 -2015, hieu iing lan toa eua tang tradng din HDI chi edn 50% Hinh 2: Toe tang trudng GDP giai doan 2001-2015 cia Viet Nam Ngudn: Hd Vdn Hien & Phgm Hdng Chuong (2013) cho sd lieu tie 2001-2010: Tdng cue Thdng ke (2016) cho sd lieu tit 2011-2015 Sd 233 thdng 11/2016 37 khu vyc kinb ti toong nudc lai cang it hon - Chinh sdch tdng trit&ng chua co lai cho tdng l&p yiu the Diiu dupe thi bien qua mdt sd khia canh: (i) Viee liy dit ndng nghiep de phat toien khu cdng nghiep, chp diu mdi, khu thj, sieu thj da dan din ngudi ndng dan ed bieu hien bi ban cung boa (mit dit, mit viec lam) toong kbi viec giai quyet chinb sach cd nhieu diem ehua thoa dang, cang toam topng hon cae khu edng nghiep, ehp dau mdi xay dung len nhung ty le lap day rat thap; (ii) Chinh sach tang trudng bien ehu yeu cd Ipi cho cac vflng dpng lyc, cac nha dau tu ldn, nha dau tu nudc ngoai, toong dd ngudi ngheo, vflng ngheo bay eac doanh nghiep nhd, sieu nhd khdng cd dieu kien dupe tham gia tryc tiep vao viec tao nen qua tang tracmg van rai vao tinh toang "bj cd lap" hay thieu cac dieu kien de tdn tai hay tham gia; (iii) Cac chinh sach hd top hay tao dieu kien cho ndng dan bay ngudi ngheo vflng ngheo cd dieu kien -vucm len tham gia tryc tiep vao viec tao nen qua tang trucmg cdn rat ban che - Nhiing hgn che sit dung thdnh qud tdng tru&ng vdo phdt trien ngu&i Theo eac sd lieu UNDP (2015), thi tang tradng kinh te cdn it cd quan he tac ddng tdt cho ITnh vyc giao due, vi the giao due cua Viet Nam khdng dupe tdt so vdi nhieu nudc, nhat la giao due p h i thdng S i nam di hpc trang binh cda Viet Nam van chi dimg lai d sd 5,5 (thap ban nhieu nudc toong Ichu vye nhu: Thai Lan -6,6, Trang Quie - 7,5, Philippine 8,7) Sd nam di hpc trang binh ky vpng cua chi dat 11,9 (it hon nam so vdi Thai Lan va nam so vdi Malaysia) Vi tac ddng cua tang tradng chua tit din ITnh vye giao due nen chi s i toong HDI thip so vdi cac nudc, ciing vdi mite thu nhap binh quan diu ngudi thip din din chi s i HDI cila Viet Nam cham dupe eai thien so vdi kha nang cd thi cd Mot s i khuyen nghi nhim nang cao hieu ung cda mo hinh phat triin vi ngudi Tren ca sd phat hien nhflng nguyen nhan gay tinh ttang tac ddng ngupc chiiu cua tang tradng din tiin bd xa bdi, bai viet dua mdt si khuyin nghj sau day 4.1 Cdi thien cdc dpng luc tang tru&ng kinh ti Cai thien cac ddng lyc tang trudng, mot mat tao da d i dat dupe tdc dp tang toudng cao hon, mat khac cd tac dung diiu chinb tich eye d i kit qua tang toudng cd tac dpng manh ban din nang cao muc sing dan cu Lien quan den muc tieu nay, cd yiu td kinh ti can phai "kich" manh dd la: Sd 233 thdng 11/2016 38 Cd chinh sach tich cyc ddi vdi viec thiic day kinh t i hi nhan ldn manh d i tod dpng lyc kinh t i s i cua tang tmdng kinh ti D i thyc bien dupe mye tieu nay, can xac dinb cu the "Id toinh" giai quyet mdi quan be gifta khu vyc kinh te nha nude vdi khu vyc tu nhan d Viet Nam Theo do, giai doan diu, nha nudc se di tien phong (khi khu -vye tu nhan cdn y i u hoac ehua dam thye hien); ke tiep, nha nudc di cung vdi tu nhan vdi muc tieu diu dat, nang ehat eho khu vyc tu nhan manh len va nha nudc se "thoai v i n " din theo sy ldn manh cua tu nhan; cudi cung, khu vyc tu nhan thye sy manh va ttd dpng lyc chinh cua phat trien, nha nude ehi edn ddng vai ttd "yim ttp", "bpc lot" eho khu -vyc tu nhan can thiet Hoan thien eo che kinb te thj tradng boat dpng ttong mdt nen banh chinb edng minh bach phai dupe gan kit vdi vdi tu each la ehu the dieu tiet qua ttinh tang trucmg kinb te, budng tdi nha nudc thuc hien vai ttd kien tao phat trien Yeu td npi dja va qudc te phai dupe xem nhu la ddng ddng lyc thuc day tang tradng kinb te, cd chinb sach thyc hien sy lien ket gifta khu vye FDI vdi cac khu -vyc kinh te ttong nude de qua tang n:xtdng budng tdi eai thien thu nhap cho chfnh dan cu va ngudi lao ddng Viet Nam Dieu ddi hdi: (i) chu ttpng ttong giai doan hien chat lupng ddng vdn FDI, tt'ong dd tap trung vao lya chpn cac dy an FDI cdng nghe cao, cdng nghe sach, than thien mdi tiiidng; (ii) lay eac doanh nghiep FDI lam trung tam de phat ttien eac cym lien kit nganh, phat triin san xuat cdng nghiep hd ttp vdi sy tham gia eua cac ve tinh la doanh nghiep npi dja - Cd chinh sdch huy dpng day du nguon nhdn luc cho tdng tru&ng kinh ti theo hu&ng: Binh ding vi CO hdi cho mpi ngudi lao dpng ed kha nang va nhu eau lao ddng deu cd dupe ca bdi viec lam Thuc hien myc tieu nay: (i) mpt mat, cin ed chinb sach phat trien khoa bpc edng nghe cao va phat triin, sii dung tdt lye lupng lao ddng ed ttinh dp cao, nhung nhan tai dat nude, xem nhu day la chia khoa d i thyc hien tang tmdng nhanh va hieu qua; (ii) mat khae, d i i vdi lyc lupng lao ddng khac, cin tao diiu kien cho sy di chuyen lao ddng giua cac vung cac dja phucmg; chu ttpng dao tao, day nghe theo nhu ciu sii dyng lao dpng cua thj trudng lao ddng de tao ea hdi cho mpi ngudi cd co bdi cd viec lam vdi thu nhap cao 4.2 Thuc Men cdc chinh sdch tang tru&ng hdi hod Theo yeu cau cua md hinh tang tmdng hai boa, cac chfnh sach cin dupe hoan thien theo budng: (i) tai dja phuang Lam cho tat ea mpi ting Idp dan cu (giau va ngheo) toong xa bdi (vflng dpng lyc hay cham phat trien) deu dupe thda sue tham gia vao tang trudng kinb te de hudng lpi tryc tiip tii qua tang toudng; (ii) Thyc bien kip thdi viec phan phii lai qua tang tradng gifta cac ting Idp dan cu, gifta cae vung mien ea nudc d i tao mdt dpng thai tich cue va edng bang ve tiin bd xa hdi cho ngudi Theo djnh hudng nay, can chu y den: 4.3 Cdi thien chinh sdch phdn phdi thdnh qud tang tru&ng (thu nhgp) cho cdc linh vuc liin quan din ngu&i Phat trien vi ngudi phai the hien toong eac chinh sach lien quan den viec sit dung qua tang trucmg cho eai thien tien bp xa hdi cho ngudi Theo dd khuyen nghj tap toung vao: Thanh qua tang tinrdng kinh te can dupe sii dyng de eai thien cae khfa eanh ben quan den phat trien ngudi, xa hdi: qua trinh tang tracing kinh te phai dupe kiem soat thudng xuyen, chat che bcri eac chi tieu phat toien xa hdi, topng tam la van de xda ddi giam ngheo, cdng bang xa hdi, giai quyet viee lam, chi tieu lien quan den sy phat trien toan dien cho ngudi nhu giao due, y te, the dye the thao, van hda nghe thuat - Cac chinh sach tang trudng kinb te gan lien vdi tao dieu kien cang cdng bang cho tat ca mpi ngudi ve ea hdi phat trien Dieu lien quan den viec can (i) phai thyc bien cac chinh sach tao dieu kien cho tat ca mpi ngudi deu dupe toang bj cac nang lyc tham gia vao qua trinh thyc hien tang trudng kinh te; (ii) can phai cd chinb sach nham sit dyng triet de va bao dam cho tat ca mpi ngudi cd ca hdi tham gia vao eac qua trinh kinb te de tao tang tradng Mpt sd chinh sach nham tao binh dang ve ea hdi tham gia vao qua trinh tang tradng kinh te cho mpi ngudi: (i) Phat trien manh he thing kit ciu tang ket ndi, nhat la he thdng giao thdng va he thing thdng tin cac vung trpng diem thu hiit diu tu vdi cac vflng sau vung xa - nai cung cap ngudn lao ddng, xoa bd "the ed lap" cho cac vung cham phat triin hien nay; (ii) Giam bdt tinh chit bit hpp ly dang ban ehe di eu (chinb sach quan ly hd khau, cdng nhan quyen sit dyng dat va quyen tiep can cac dich vu xa hdi cua lao ddng di eu ); (iii) Tang cudng cung cap cae djch vy giao due, sue khde va xa hdi tai eac vung sau, vung xa de bp cd dii dieu kien ve kien thitc bay tay nghe cy the de hp kha nang tham gia tryc tiip toong viec tao thu nhap - Mpt sd chinh sach dam bao sy cdng bang thy budng cae qua tang tradng mang lai Trong giai doan can ddi mdi cac chinb sach lao dpng - xa bdi, dac biet la chinb sach danh cho ngudi ngheo, ddng bao dan tde thieu sd, eac ddi tupng de bj tdn thuong (ngudi gia, tan tat, phy nft, tre em ), phat trien mang ludi an sinh xa bdi (bao hiem xa bdi, bao hiem y te, top cap that nghiep ) nham dam bao hd trp dimg ddi tupng mpt each cdng bang; tang cudng sy tham gia cua ngudi dan ttong qua trinh hoach djnb va thye hien eac chinh sach phat trien kinh te xa hdi tai dja phuang; uu tien dau tu cdng cho khu vyc ndng thdn, dac biet la vflng ngheo de tao dieu kien bd sung, hd trp cho ngudn vdn tu nhan lao ddng di cu chuyen ve phat toien tao viec Iam Thanh qua tang tradng kinb te ludn gan vdi nang cao mite sdng eho quang dai quan chimg nhan dan, thdng qua chinh sach phan phdi va phan phdi lai thu nhap Md binh tang tradng vi ngudi dat yeu cau su dung ed hieu qua hai phuong thue phan phdi thu nhap: (i) Phan phdi thu nhap theo chitc nang, tiic la thu nhap eiia mdi ngudi dupe xac djnh toen eo sd ddng gdp ve sd va chat lupng ngudn lyc ma hp ddng gdp vao viec tao thu nhap cho nen kinh te; (ii) Phan phdi lai thu nhap, dudi hinb thuc tryc tiep (thue, top cap) va gian tiep (qua chinb sach gia tiep can djch vy cdng) de gdp phan dieu tiet thu nhap gifta cac tang Idp dan cu toong xa hdi Tai ligu tham khao Ha Van Hidn & Nguyen Hong Chuong, (ding ehii bien, 2013), Md hinh tdng truang kinh te Viet Nam thai ky sau hau khimg hodng vd suy thodi kinh te todn cdu, NXB Chinh tri quoc gia - Su that, Ha Npi Ngo Thing Lpi - Trln Thj Van Hoa (ding chu bien, 2016), Dong lu-c tdng trudng kinh te Viet Nam, NXB Chinh tri Quic gia - Su that Ha Npi Nguyen Ke Tuin (chu bien, 2011), Kinh ti Viet Nam 2010-Nhin lgi mo hinh tdng tru&ng 2001-2010, NXB Dai hpc Kinh tl Quoc dan Ting cue Thing ke (2016), Dpng thai va thuc trang phat triin kinh ti Viet Nam 2011-2015, NXB Thing ke Ha Npi UNDP (2015), Human Development Report 2016: Work for Human Development, New York, USA -Worid Bank (2016), World Development Indicators, -Washington DC, USA Sd 233 thdng 11/2016 39 ... nhirng nam dau cua giai doan tbi nhftng nam sau dang cd xu huong giam di Nam 2015 tdc dp tang tracmg thu nhap thyc ehi bang 40% so vdi nam 2011 Nhflng nam cudi cda giai doan 2011- 2015, ty le lam... dpng Giai doan 2011- 2015, xu hudng giam cua chi sd GHR ed tie dp nhanh ban Nam 2011, GHR dat gia trj la 0,097 tbi 2014 giam xudng chi cdn 0,065 Neu so vdi nam 2001 thi giatoicua chi sd nam 2015. .. tmdng den mye Nhu vay, giai doan 2011- 2015, mac du Viet tieu phat trien vi eon ngudi Sy giam sut tang tradng Nam van tri dupe sy gia tang cua chi sd HDI giai doan 2011- 2015 la bau qua tat yeu
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