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Xa hpi hQC, s6 (136) 2016 37 TAI DINH CIT TAP TRUNG - M O T PHLTONG THLTC THICH LTNG CHU D O N G B E N VITNG V I B I E N DOI KHI HAU VA MOI TRUCJNG (Ngfaidn cun trudng hop tinh Hda Binh) NGLIYfiN H6NG THAI* Tom tdt: Bdi viit dua tren kit qud khdo sdt 407 hp ciia xd thupc huyen Mai Chdu, tinh Hoa Binh, noi dang thuc hi^n ki hogch chu dpng di doi cdc hp cd nguy ca hi anh hudng bai thien tai, sgt la ddt tai cdc ldm tdi dinh cu Phuang thuc ndy logi bo duac hdu nhu hodn todn cdc nguy ca thiin tai vd biin dot hgu Bi cdc hp tu nguyen tham gia chuang trinh cdn ndng cao nhgn thuc vi nguy ca thien tai, bdo ddm sinh ki vd cha trpng xdy dung moi trudng vdn hoa xa hpi phit hpp tgi nai tdi dinh cu Kho khdn nhdt Id vdn di thiiu ddt sdn xudt cho cdc hg Cdn co chinh sdch ho trg tdng thu nhdp tic chdn nudi vd phi nong nghiip Ca bdn nhdt Id phdi phdt triin gido due nen tdng vd ddo tgo nghi cho lao dpng tgi cdc khu tdi dinh cu Tit khda: tdi dinfa cu, tfaidn tai, bien ddi hau va mdi tnrdng Din nfa^p Vdi nfaGng kich bdn kfade nhau, Vift Nam dupe ddnfa gid Id mft nhGng qudc gia bi dnh hudng ndng ne nhat cua biSn ddi khifadu(ADB, 2009; Dasgupta vd cfng s\r, 2009; Cfamfa pfau, 2011) Hon 70% ddn sd cd the bi dnhfaudngbdi nhGng dang thien tai, hi^u cue doan khac Vift Nam cd nguy co cao chiu riii ro tir biSn ddi kfai fadu, nhdt la lu lut, bdo td, xam nfaap man, sat Id ddt, o nliiem mdi trudng (Anfa Qudn, 2016) Mac dd da cd khdng it n5 luc nfaam gjam tfaieu tfaiftfaaido tfai6n tai cung nfau biSn ddi kfai fadu, Viet Nam vdn pfadi ganh cfaiu nhung tdn tfadt Idn cd vd ngudi va vdt cfadt Trong giai doan 2011 - 2015, trung binh moi nam cd 226 ngudi chdt hoac mdt tich thiSn tai ciing vdi tfaift faai vdt chat kfaodng 13.647 ti ddng, udc cfaiem 1,2% tdng san pfadm qudc nfi (Cfamfa pfau, 2015) Vifc td cfauc di ddi cacfafdan kfadi cdc kfau vuc cd nguy co cao Id mft nfaGng gidi pfadp duac dp dung d Vift Nam thdi gian qua nfadm ung pfad vdi tfaien tai Didu pfaufagpvdi quan diim cda Uy ban Lien efainh pfau vd bidn ddi kfaifadu.Td ehiic ket ludn, bidn ddi kfaifaduketfaopvdi tfaih tr^g mat df ddn sd eao tai cdc kfau vuc hay bi hiim hpa thien tai tren the gidi cd the se tfaiic ddy di cu, vd cac klfaoEichtdi Vien Xd hoi hoc, Vien Hdn ldm Khoa hoc xd hoi Viet Nam 38 Tai djnh cu tgp Irung-mgt sd phmmg thuc thich ling dinh eu se cang ttd nen ein tiiiit (IPCC, 2012), Trong CWin lupc quoc gia phdng, ehdng va gidm nhe tWSn tai din nam 2020, mot ttong nhiing mye tidu phin diu din ndm 2010 Id CO bdn hodntiidnhviec di ddi ddn khdi cae khu vyc cd nguy co eao xay lu quel, sat Id dit vd cdc viing nguy Ulm din noi an todn (Chinh phu, 2007), CWen lupc qudc gia vl Win dii kW hdu (CUnh phu, 2011) cung nhin manh vide ttiln khai eae gidi phdp ey till dl phdng ching hdu qudtiiientai, lu qudt vd sat Id dit d vung nili, Mpt sd dia phuong, ttong dd cd tinh Hda Binh, da hodc dang triin khai nhfing chuong ttinh, dy dn tdi dinh eu (TDC) tdp trung nhdm phdng trdnh tiiien tai vd xem la mdt md Wnh quan ttpng ttong chiin lupc thich ling chu ddng ben virng vdi bien ddi hdu, Cdu hdi ddt Idttdnfliyctl, cac md hmh TDC ed dupe da so ngudi ddn chip nhdn, hudng ling vd cd tdc ddng thi ndo din cupc sdng eda hp? NgMen cim cua Vo Thanh Danh vd Shahbaz Mushtaq (2011) cho thiy, ehuong trinh "sing chung voi lii" (xdy dyng cum, tuyen dan eu vd nhd d vdng ngdp lu ding bdng sdng Ciiu Long) Id mpt giai phdp tdi ^nh eu hpp ly va ed Weu qud nhat dinh, nhung chua dupe mpt sd ngudi ddn nhin nhin tich cue bdi nhiing han ehe ve eo sd h^ ting, Theo bao cao gdn ddy eua Lien hpp quic chd yen dya ttdn kdt qud khdo sdt tai mpt sd tinh phia Nam Viet Nam tW vl eo bdn, cac chuong trinh TDCfingphd tWen tai vd bidn ddi kW hdu khdng ehi giup tdng ddng kl khd ndng ching chju tWdn tai, ma cdn cdi tWen diiu kipn tiip cdn ede dich vy xd hdi cho ngudi ddn, nhung ttong nWlu trudng hpp lai gdy mpt sd khd khdn eho sinh kl eua eac h6 raC, gidm tinh bin vihig cua chuong ttinh (UN, 2014), Nhu vdy, tac dpng cita vi|e TDC dudng nhu la khd da dang va phdc tap, nhung eho din mdi eW cd rit it ngWen clhi ddnh gid vl Wpu qud cua cdc ehuong ttinh, du dn TDC dofliientai d tinh Hda Binh cung nhu d Vi$t Nam ndi ehung, Bdi vilt phdn tich si lieu khdo sdt Vien Xd hdi hpe tiin hdnh nam 2016 tai hai xd viing long hi thdy dien Hda Bmh Id Tan Mai va Phdc S?n thupc huyen Mai Chdu, va ba khu tdi dinh cu lap ttung dupe xay dung each noi a eu khodng 100 km eho cdc hd ty nguySn tai djnh cu tdp trung cua hai xa trdn, Hai phuong phdp dinh luong vd djnh, tinh dupe ket hpp dp dyng Khdo sat dinh lupng dupe'thue Wen vdi 407 hd tiiudc doi ttrong TDC cWa thdnh nhdm dii sanh gdm: 274 hd Wpn vin ehua TBC va 133 hd da dupe TDC tap ttung ttr nam 2010, Khao sdt dinh tt'nh dupe fliue W$n vdi 50 trudng hpp Kit qua nghien ciiu cung cip them bdng chiing nhdm rut nhimg bai hpe kinh nghiSm, gdp phan ttien khai md hinh TDC phdng ttdnh tiiien tai cd Weu qua vd bin vfing hon, khdng chi d Hda Binh md cd thi nhdn rdng toan quic Tinh tr?ng thyc hifn tdi djnh cu- tap trung t?i dia ban khao sat Hda Binh la tinh tiiupc viing nui Tdy Bde cd ciu tEio dia Unh, kM hju d^e tiiu: hi fliuy dien, ddi nut eao, nWdu sdng suli vdi dp die cao, luong mua tdp ttung rit Idn flieo mua dan den nguy ca cao ve ngdp lyt, lu quet, sat 16 dit vd nhfing fliiet hai dofliientai ttong to gism gdn day Id rdt ddng kl (Huu Trung, 2016) Tai hai xa Tdn Mai vd Phuc ban, nhung so Uu thdng ke cho fliiy fliito tai va Win ddi h|u, mdi ttudng dd anh huong ttyc ttep, todn di$n tdi td ehiic ddi sing vd sinh kl cua cpng ding ngudi ddn Ddc biet eon bdo sd ndm 2007 da ldm ngucri chit, hang ttdm ngdi nhd W lu cuin ttdi va Nguyin Hdng Ihdi 39 s£5) dd hoan todn Horn 100 ddt canh tdc bi ddt, da vui lip khdng cdn kha nang canh tdc, hau fait viing ddi nui d hai xa deu xuit hifn nfaGng vlt ndt rfng ed thi gay s^t Id dat rat nguyfailm.Tfaeo kfado sat nam 2007, cd 652fadtaifaaixS cd nhu cdu dugtc TDC dd dn dinh ddi sdng md muc tieu ddu tien la gidm thilu duoc tfaift hai,fliuongtich ve ngudi (Dd Ha, 2014) Trudc thuc trang do, tinh Hda Buih da cd kdfaoacfabo tri lai dan cu dl cfau dfng d6i pfad vdi i ^ y CO nii ro tfaien tai Tmfa da chonfainhtfadc TDC tfp trung 3fainfatfaGc TBC CO bdn (TBC tap trung, TBC xen ghep, tu TDC) Kdt qua khao sat vao thang ndm 2016, tmfa da di ddi dugcfaon180 faf den kfau TDC tap trung each noi xuat eu kfaodng 100 km Thii nhdt, kfau TDC Dong Tdm -fauyfnLac Tfauy ndm 2014 dd tidp nhdn 50 faf gdm ddn tfe cua xa din TDC Hifn cdn 70 Id ddt d nhung cfaua tfaucfaifndugc TDC Tfaiifaai,kfau TDC Bao Hifu - huyfn Yen Thuy nam 2010 da tiip nhan 70fadtfaufc dan toe nfaung edn 18 Id ddt TDC chira cd hf cfauyin ddn Thd ba, khu TBC Yen Ngfaifp huyfn Lac Scm nam 2010 da tiep nhdn 60 fad Cfainfa sdch ho trg chung cda tuih eho cdc hf TDC tap trung gom:fadtrg tidn di cfauyin ldm nfad 23 trieu ddng/faf (nam 2014) va 15 trifu ddng/hf (nam 2010); mSi fad dugc cap 300 d6n 400m^ ddt d; 5000 m^ ddt san xuit Ngoai cdn mgt sd cfainfa sdch hS trg uu tien dac bift khde tdy tfaeo tiing khu tGng thdi diim nhu: ho trg ldm bl nude trifu/fag, cap 900.000d ldm nha vf sinh tufaoai,fadtrg bd cfaofagnghdo (Nguyin Hd My, 2014) Dac bift, tinfa cd cfainfa sdch cfaua bi tfaufadiddt riing sdn xudt tai noi cii cua cdc hf TDC ma chi tfau hoi ddt d Trong nhGng nam ddu sau kfai TQC, tfau nfaap tG dat dai noi d cu cfaiem ty trgng khd cao ca can thu nhap gia dinh cuafao.Hang ndm, mft sd lao dgng ehinh van gidnh tu 6-9 thang ve que eanh tdc va tfaufaoacfatren dat riing duge chia t^ noi d cu MdfainfaTBC tap trung vdn dang dugc tinh Hda Binh thyc hifn vd rdt kinfa ngfaifm de cd tfad nfadn rong Tfaeo ddnh gid cda mft sd nfad quan ly, uu didm vugt trfi cua TBC t|,p trung Id gidi quyit dugc su an toan cua cfng ddng trudc thien tai va biin ddi hfu Cac kfau TDC ddu dugc thiet ke xay dyng de ed the loai bd hdu nhu hodn todn nguy co rui ro thien tai nhu lu lyt, sat Id dit Han cfae Idn nfadt cua TDC t|lp trung Id xudt ddu tu cao (ca thu hdi dit, ddu ty tdng vd ho trg can xdp xi 100 trifu/fad) ddn den gap khd khdn ve kinfa pfai ddi vdi tinh cdn ngheo nhu Hda Buih Tfaeo muc gid nam 2011 vd thdng ke chua thft ddy dd, dl cd thd bd tri lai dan cu theo Quyit dinh sd 1776/QD-TTg 21/11/2012 cua Thu tudng Chinh phii, Hda Binh cdn kfaodng 700 ty nhung ngudn ngan sacfa dja pfauong tdi da chi ddp ling dugc 17% (UBND tinh Hda Binh, 2011) Day la mft nfaGng nguyen nfadn ldm cfao qua trinfa TDC bi cfafm, kfad nhieu hf dang Icy tu nguyfn TDC tu 2010 din van chua dugc thyc hifn Kfad kfadn Idn nfadt cua cac hd TDC tfp trung la dat sdn xuit chi dugc c ^ 5.000m^ mdi faf Day la dit tfau hdi cua cdc ndng trudng n6n chdt lugng kfadng cao Sinfa kl cfau yen dya vao ndng ldm ngfaifp cua ddng bao ddn tgc tfaieu sd hi dnh hudng nghiem trgng md thai gian ddu chua tfae cd pfauong tfaiic de tfaay ddi ca ciu nguon tfau nhdp Thu nfafp tu ngudn dat dugc edp tnmg binfa cfai du cfao cac hf sdng khodng 4-5 tfadng/ndm Ty If faf ngfado d cd khu TDC d6u tren 66% Day Id bdi todn kfad gidi quyit khdng chi ddt 40 Tdi dinh cii tap trung - mdt sd phucmg thiic thich img vdi Hoa Binh ma cd le cdn la thach tiific chung cda qua tttoh TDC tiilch dug vdi Win ddi hdu tten loan qudc Qnyit dinh tdi dinh c» eua cac hp Vdi thucttangthyc Wen ehiromg trinh TDC kl tten, cae hd gia dinh tiiuong phdi cdn nhdc ky luSng vd khdng phdi tit ed cac hp dlu quyit dinh se di roi din noi TDC, cho du ho dang phai dii mat voi nguy co Idn vl thien tai, \a lyt, sat 16 dit, Trong long so 407 hp dupe khao sat thi co gin 1/3 dd chuyin din noi mdi, Tuy nWen ttong sd 274 hd cdnlai tW CO 25,9% chua quyit dinh, 37,6% quyit dinh se TDC vd 36,5% quyit dinh se khdng TDC (vdi nhfing diiu kien nhu hien nay), Diln dang ehii ^ la ty le hd quyit djnh sS TBC ttong nhdm hp ngheo hole can ngheo chi la 31,1%, tiiip hem dang kl so voi ttong nhdm khdng ngheo (43,9%), Diiu ndy eho thiy diiu ki$n kinh tl khd khan cd till la mpt ttong nhihig ttd ngai din viee quyet dinh TDC eua cac hp gia dinh Bang 1, Quyet djnh cua h$ yk vi^c tai djnh cir Dan vi: % Chira quyit dinh Ho ngheo, c ^ ngh^o H$ khdng nghgo 29,6 22,3 Chung 25,9 Quyit djnh kh6ng TDC 39,3 33,8 36,5 QuySt dinh sS TDC 31,1 43,9 37,6 135 139 274 N Ngudn: Sd lieu khdo sdl ciia Viin Xa hoi hoc ndm 2016 Theo sd heu ttong Bang 2, ly phd bidn nhit khiin nWlu hd quyit dinh se khong di chuyin theo ke hoach TDC la tam ly "6 1^ vdn thiy an loan" eua nguoi ddn (32%), Nhu da ttinh bay a muc 2, nguy co bi sat 16 dit hai xa theo ddnh gia cua cdc co quan chiic nang la Men hfiu va la ly cUnh quyin phai tl chuc TDC Tuy nWen kU m$t so hp ehua nhdn thiic diing ve nguy co ndy tM viSc hp qyyit dinh khdng ehuyin di cung la diiu dl hiiu Nhu vay, dl tiiyc Wdn triet dl kl hojch TDC till mdt ttong nhflng giai phdp can thiet Id tang cuang edng tdettiyentruyin, gidi tWch cho cac hp gia dinh vl nguy COtiiientai, khdng cW tdpttrungcho nhom hd ngheo ma cho tit cae cdc hd tiiu6c diSnTDC, Ly phd Wenfliiihai 14 viec ngudi ddn quen vdi noi Men t£ii va khdng muln xa que, ho hang, hang xdm (35%) Hay noi cdch khac, mdi ttitong van hda, xd hpi doi vdi eong dong cdc ddn tpc day la khd quan trpng ma nai mdi tai khu TDC chua till thay flic dupe Hai ly tiipflieophan dnh lo ngai eda nguoi ddn vl sinh kl t?i noi TDC, la "khong co viec lam, thu nhdp" (23%) va "tiiilu ddt san xuit" (17%), NIU tinh gop lai tM ty le hp dua it nhdt mpt ttong hai ly la 34% vd dilu cho thdy lo Idng cua ngudi dan ve sinh kl cWnh la mpt ttong nhimg nguyen nhdn phi biin nhit khiin ho quyet dinh khdng chuyen din noi TDC Tuang ding voi danh gid bdo eao cua LiSn hpp qudc (UN, 2014), ket qua gpi y rdng, viec bdo ddm sinh kl cho nguoi dan tai noi a moi Id dlto kien rdt quan ttpng dl cd thifliycWen edng cdc ehuong ttinh TDC thien tai vd Men doi hdu Ngiiyin Hong Thdi 41 Bang C£c 1^ cho quy^t djnh khSng djnh tdi djnh cir cua cdc hf Dcm v/; % lai vin thiy an t o ^ KhSng mu5n xa quS, hp h^g, h ^ xom Khong c6 vifc ^ , tiiu nh^p o noi din Thilu 6k san xuSt d noi din Phai chjr qui ISu n€n khdng dl nOa H6 trgr, d^n bO khSng hgp iy Gi^ sAc khde y^u Chua c6 nhh a t^i noi din Thilu thdng tin vl noi din Chua cd trudng hgc, t r ^ y tl Cic ly khic N Hf Dghto, cap ngheo Hf khong nghto 36,2 28,3 25,5 35,8 27,7 20,8 17,0 17,0 12,8 13,2 14,9 3,8 12,8 3,8 4,3 3,8 2,1 1,9 1,9 2,1 6,4 7,5 47 53 Chung 32,0 31,0 24,0 17,0 13,0 9,0 8,0 4,0 2,0 2,0 7,0 100 So Ii0u khdo sdt cua Vi0n Xa hgi hgc ndm 2016 ""T^ If hd dua cdc I^ lien quan trueti%)ddn qud tiinh tridn khai cac kefaoacfaTBC tap trung nfau "pfadi cfad qua Idu"faay"faS trg, d§n bu IdidngfagpIy*' khdng cao (13% vd 9%) nhung cung la nhihig van de rit dang dugc cac ca quan chtic nang luu ^ va rut kinfa nghifm Trong kfai do, ty If dua cdc ly hen quan den nfad eua, co sdfaatdng vd tfadng tin deu duoi 5%, tfaapfaonnfaieu so vol cac ly pfad bien nfadt da phdn tich d tren HSn quan den ba kfaia canh: nhfn tfaiic ve mi^ df riii ro, sinfa ke va mdi truong vanfadaxa fadi Danh gid cua ngirdi ddn vh cufc s6ng t^i khu TDC so vdi nffi d cii De dugc danh gia lafaifuqud vd ben vihig, chuong trinh IDC khdng cfai giup ngirdi ddn tranh hiem hoa thien tai ma can phdi tgo chofagcac dieu kifn sinh sdng tdt hon, hodc it nfadt la kfadng kemfaonnoi d cu Dira tren y kien cua 133 hg da efauyen den kfau TDC, cdc pfadn tfch sau ddy tdp trung so sdnh dieu kifn smh song cua hg so vdi noi d cii qua cfai bdo: ddt thd cu, ddt sdn xuit, co sdfaatdng, vifc ldm va tfau nfadp, siic khde, quan faf cdng ddng Bing Difn dch mft so lo^i dat cQafaft^i khu TDC so vdi noi & cQ ^ ^ D3t thd cu hhon Tuong duong Nbiluhon N Dat sin xuit ndng nghifp 69,9 12,8 17,3 133 ^^(^ W- % Dit pha hoang 9.8 10.5 37,6 54.1 133 133 Nguon: So lieu khdo sdt cOa Vi0n Xd hgi hoc ndm 2016 4.1 vi dat thd cu Nfain chung, ddt thd eu tai khu cdc TBC cd difn ticfa ftfaonva khdng tfaudn lgi efao sulfafaoatvd chan nudi bdng noi d cii Trong sd cdc hd da cfauydn ddn kfau TDC cd tdi 42 Tdi djnh cu tgp trung -mgt so phuong thtic thich ling , 70% hp ed dit till eu it hon noi d eu (Bang 3) Tpi khu TDC, mdi hp cM dupe eip tit 300m^ din 400m^ ddt d theo diing han mure dupe Chinh phu ban hanh Tuy nMen, khde bidt Idn nhdt gdy ttd ngai eho tl chuc cupc song ciia cdc hd TDC khdng cW la di^n tich nhd hon md la kbdng gian sing Tai noi d eii, dit d eda hp ludn dan xen vdi dit rung, ddt vudn liin kl t?o mdt khdng gian sing thdng thodng, phdng khoang theo dung each song cua dong bdo dan tpc tWdu so Cdu true eua khdng gian sdng edn tao dilu Iden oho vile chdn nudi hpp vp smh, ddm bdo khdng nWim mdi ttudng Cdn tai khu TDC, dat till eu dupe phanflieoId, khdng cd khdng gian dem ndn rit khd khdn chotiidiquen 16 chile ddi sdng vd t£ip qudn chan nudi cua ding bdo ddn tpc tiiilu so Hp cdn edflidigian detiiiehngW vdi dilu kien song mdi 4.2 Ve dit sdn xuat Khd khan, ttd ng^ Idn nhit dii vdi eae hd TDC la fliiiu dit san xuit Do quy dit cii h|n n6n moi hp TDC cM dupe eip 0,5 vd kit qua Id cd tdi 80% si hp TBC cd dipn tfch dat san xuit it hon so vdi noi d cu (txmg binh khodng haAp), Hon niia, dit cip cho cac hO TDC deu Id ddt ttong cay edng ngMpp dai tiiu hii tvr ede ndng ttudng nen chit lupng khdng cao,tiiuongdem lai thu nhdp kha thdp, Tuy nhidn vdi cM'nh sdeh Imh hoat ttnh ehuatiiuhdi ddt rimg t£ii noi d cu, nen khd khan vl dit sdn xudt ciing phdn ndo duoc khde phue, '^'f ^^^ ^