Thực trạng nhận thức của người dân ven biển về biến đổi khí hậu

THlTC TRANG NHAN THtTC CUA NGlTCfl DAN VEN BIEN V£ BIEN D I KHI HAU Trinh Thi Tuy^t Dung Nguygn Diic Hoan Tom tat: Trong bdi cdnh hiin nay, cdc bieu hiin ciia biin ddi hgu dang ngdy cdng the hiin ro ret vd cd nhieu tdc ddng din nguoi ddn vd cdc hogt ddng sinh ki Nhdn thirc vi biin ddi hdu la hit siic cdn thiet di cdc bin liin quan cd hdnh ddng chung tay ciing gidm thiiu tdc dgng cua biin ddi hdu vd thich img v&i bien ddi hdu Nghiin cuu ndy khdo sdt nhdn thuc cua ngu&i ddn ven biin vi bien ddi hgu trin cdc khia cgnh gdm: nhdn thirc vi biin doi hdu, diin bien cua biin ddi hdu, cdc dnh huong cua bien ddi hdu vd hogt ddng ung phd Bin cgnh do, nghiin ciru cdng xem xet cdc nguyen nhdn gidi thich cho viic nhdn thiic chua cao vi biin ddi hdu cua nguai ddn ven biin Tir khda: Biin ddi hdu; nhdn thirc, ven bien Dat v3n de Bign ddi kbi hau (BDKH) la mdt vdn de ndi com toan eau, thach thiic eac nd lyc irng phd ciia nhigu qudc gia nhat Nd ed anh hudng true tiep va ro ret len cac viing ven bign, tac ddng dgn boat dgng kinh tg va siic khde cua ngudi Do do, viec nhan thiic duge nhiing bieu bien va tac ddng cua BDKH dg cd hanh ddng thich ung, ling phd la dieu hgt siic can thigt nhat la ddi vdi ngudi dan lam nong nghiep cd boat dgng san xuat gan vdi dat va bign - cd tinh dg bi tdn thuang cao Vi vay, viec ludng nhan thiic cua ngudi dan ve BDKH la can thigt dg danh gia, so sanh, tii' cd nhiing giai phap nang eao nhan thuc hgp ly ddi vdi nhdm ddi tugng Mot sd khai niem 1.1 Bien ddi hgu Theo IPCC, BDKH thg hien b5ng su thay ddi tiang thai hau, dugc xac dinh bdi nhung gia tri binh hoac sy thay ddi vg thudc tinh ciia nd tiong thdi gian dai vai thap ky hoac lau han Nguyen nhan eua viee thay ddi phan quygn va tiong sir dung dat dugc xac dinh la quy trinh ty nhign bgn tiong hoac bgn ngoai, hoac ngudi tao (IPCC', 2007) Theo quan digm nay, nguygn nhan cua BDKH bao ham ca nguygn nhan tir tu nhien va tii ngudi, nhung ngudi cd vai trd quan tigng khien cd dien bien cua BDKH xay nhanh ban Dinh nghTa ciia IPCC cung ndi rd hon ve cac bieu Men cy thg cua BDKH bao gdra: Thay ddi bat thudng cua am va lugng mua theo khdng gian va thdi gian; gia tang nhiet tnmg binh; myc nude bign dang; va gia tang cae hien tugng thdi tigt eye doan Trong pham vi ciia nghign cim nay, viec ludng nhan thuc vg BDKH se dugc tinh toan trgn cac khia canh: sy tdn tai ciia BDHK, nguygn nhan chii ygu eiia BDKH, cac bieu hien cua BDKH, anh hudng ciia BDKH dgn boat ddng san xuat ndng nghigp, va eac hoat ddng ung phd ndi chung Viec ludng bign bien ciia BDKH gidi ban d viec ludng nhan thiie cua ngudi dan vg sy thay ddi tan suat va cudng ciia eac hien tugng: bao, gidng Idc, nang ndng, han ban, mua Idn http.//www thegwpf.org/ipcc-inttoduces-new-climatechange-defmition/ P H A T T R I E N B E N VCfNG VUNG Q U Y E N 9, SO (9/2019) 141 NGHIEN CO'U THU'C NGHlEM - KINH NGHIEM 1.2 Cdc nghien cdn ve nhdn thirc ve bien ddi khihgu rui ro that su ma ho dang phai doi mat (Lin va cong sir, 2018) Cac nghien ciiu thyc nghiem da chi rang cang ngu'di dan cang cd mdi quan tara dgn BDKH cung nhu cd su ddng thuan hon tiong nhan thiic vg nguygn nhan gay ngn BDKH la ngudi Nghign cim tir 2012 cho thay cdn cd gan 2/3 sd ngudi tra ldi cho rSng nguyen nhan chinh ciia BDKH la radt sy ket hop cua hoat ddng cua ngudi va qua tiinh tu nhign (DOEIN, 2012) Cac nghign ciiu sau dd cbi ro sy ddng nhat quan digm cho rSng BDKH la ngudi (xem Ahmad, 2014; Wei va cdng sy, 2014; Ojomo va cdng sy, 2015) Vg eac bign hien eua BDKH, ngu'di dan nhan bigt dugc nhiing dign bien phd bign thdng thudng nhu miia he ndng ban, miia ddng am ban (Hasan va Kumar, 2019) O Viet Nam ciing cd mdt sd cac nghien ciiu lien quan dgn nhan thirc cua ngudi dan ve BDKH: Le Nguyen Doan Khdi, 2011; Dang Dinh TbSng, 2013; Luong Thi Thu Hang, 2016 Cac nghien ciiu da nhan thirc cua cdng ddng ven bien vg eac higu Men CO ban cua BDKH nhu bien ddng thdi tigt noi chung (nhiet do, nang, mua, gid, bao ); bien ddng nhiet ndi chung; sd raua, lugng raua, tinh tiang ngap lut; sd nSng, tinh tiang nang nong va ban ban; gid Idn, bao; myc nude bign, thiiy trign, ddng chay va sdng bign; muc nude sdng, ddng chay trgn sdng rach; tinh trang xara nhap man trgn sdng va rudng ddng (Le Nguygn Doan Khoi, 2011) phu hgp vdi dia ban nghign ciiu Ngoai ra, cae nghien ciiu ciing chi cac giai phap img phd, danh gia chinh sach, ciing nhu mite san sang cM tra cho viec ung phd ciia ngudi dan (Dang Dinh Thang, 2013), bay dg xuat cac md hinh sinh kg cho ngudi ngheo thich ling vdi BDKH (Luang Thi Thu Hang, 2016) Nghign Cliu vg nhan thirc BDKH cho thay cd su khac biet theo cae dac diem ca nhan nhu: sd thich, niem tin, mdi quan tam, tudi, gidi tinh, trinh hgc van (Zelezny, 2000; DOENI, 2012; Aini va cdng sy, 2013; Ahmad, 2014; Jitendra va cdng sy, 2015; Ziegler, 2017.,.) Theo dd, nhung ngudi cd mdi quan tam nhieu hon dgn mdi trudng thudng cd banh vi ung hd radi trudng cao bon Nhirng ngudi ed trinh hgc van cao han co nhan thiie ve BDKH tdt ban (DOENI, 2012), thara ehi nhan thiic vg tac ddng cua BDKH tieu eye han (Poortinga va cdng sy, 2019) Nghign ciiu d 33 qudc gia cho thay d nhung nude phat thai cacbon thap, cac ea nhan cd xu hudng cd nhan tbiic vg BDKH thap hon chii ygu nhan thiic ve cae nguyen nhan cua BDKH (SilviaLuis va cdng su, 2018) O cap dp ca nhan, nhieu nghien ciiii chi ro nguai dan co nhan thiic chua day du ve anh hudng ciia BDKH nhu; Chiang, 2018; Escarcha va cong su, 2018; Lm va cong su, 2018; Zhai va cong sir, 2018; SilviaLuis va cong sir, 2018; Dubeva Phiri, 2013 Mac dii ngudi dan nhan thiic dugc nhiing m i ro tit BDKH, ciing nhu nhung tac dong den sinh ke, va sue klioe nhung phan Ion hg biet dugc muc 142 Tdm lai, cac nghign ciiu vg nhan tbiic vg BDKH ciia ngudi dan d Viet Nam da dang nhung chua nhigu ciing nhu chua phan tich sau nhu cae nghien cim trgn thg gidi Cac nghien ciiu da cd thudng lign quan dgn ITnh vyc ndng nghiep - cung la nganh nghg cd sd lugng lao dgng Idn d Viet Nam, va vi thg nhirng tac ddng ciia BDKH cung dugc xem xet ehii ygu tiong san xuat ndng nghigp, nhan thirc vg anh hudng cua BDKH ddi sdng chua duge quan sat cd be thdng nhu cac nghign Cliu d nude ngoai Cac nghign eiiu rieng ve nhan thue eiia ngudi dan vdi tac ddng cua BDKH va thay ddi sinh kg cung chua nhieu Phirong phap nghien ciru 2.1 Phuffngphdp dieu tra Nghien ciru thyc hien dieu tra bang bdi ngudi dan ven bign Ddi tugng dugc chgn khao sat la ngudi dan tai xa ven bign Nhan Hai thudc huyen Ninh Hai, tinh Ninh Thuan Trong dd ngudi dan dugc chgn tai 4/6 thdn cua xa dam bao cd dii so ngudi boat ddng cac ITnh vyc khac nhu canh tac ndng nghiep, thuy hai san, lara raudi PHAT TRIEN BEN V C N G VUNG Q U Y E N 9, SO (9/2019) Trjnh Thj Tuyet Dung - Nguyin Bifc Hoan Thirc trang nh§n thirc Ngoai ra, dg bd sung cho phdn dieu tra vg nhan thiic cua ngudi dan, nghien cim tign hanh phong van sau mdt sd ngudi dan va dai dien chinh quygn de cd cai nhin tdng thg va sau sic ban vg van dg nghign eiiu 2.2 Phirong phdp phdn tich sd lieu Mau dua vao phan tich gdm cd 133 mlu Ca cau mlu phan chia theo boat ddng kinh tg ehu yeu cua hg gia dinh Trong dd, boat ddng ITnh vyc tidng tigt va chan nudi la chu yeu ngudi dan trgn khia canh chmh la: Nhan thirc chung vg BDKH, nhan thuc ve anh hudng cua BDKH, va nhan thirc vg boat ddng img phd vdi BDKH Dg tim higu ro ban vg cac ygu td anh hudng dgn nhan thirc cua ngudi dan ven bign vg BDKH, nghign ciiu dua vao phan tich cae bign nhan khau gdm: gidi tinh, trinh dd hge van, boat ddng kinh te chinh, tudi dg xem cac nhan td giai thich dugc bao nMgu phan tiam sy khac biet tiong nhan thiic vg BDKH cua ngudi dan ven bign Kgt qua nghien cihi Dg phan tieh thyc trang nhan thirc ciia ngudi dan ven bien vg BDKH, nghien ciru sir dung phuang an gan tigng sd tuong duong cho cac phin cau hdi ve nhan thiie Nhan thirc vg BDKH dugc chia phan: Al) nhan thirc vg nguyen nhan ciia BDKH; A2) nhan thiic vg higu Men cua BDKH; A3) nhSn tbiic vg anh budng BDKH; A4) nhan thiic ve irng phd chung BDKH Trong dd phan nhan thiie chung vg BDKH ludng cu thg nhan thii'c vg sy tdn tai, nguygn nhan, cac higu hien chinh ciia BDKH Moi phan dugc danh trgng sd de tinh digm cho tung phin Al, A2, A3, A4 Mdi nhdm dugc gan diem eho sd digm ciia tirng phan, Al, A2, A3, A4 la bang Sau dd, tap hgp digm ciia timg nhom se tinh toan digm trung binh nham so sanh ro net nhat ve digm nhan thiic (Dnt) cua cac nhdm 3.1 Nhdn thirc vi bien ddi hgu Nhdn thuc chung ve BDKH Nhan thirc chung ve BDKH dugc xem xet qua cau hdi nhan dinh vg higu biet eua ngudi dan vg su tdn tai ciia BDKH tien thyc tg, nguygn nhan chu ygu cua BDKH va cac bieu Men cy thg ciia BDKH Kgt qua dieu tra vg sy tdn tai ciia BDKH tien thyc tg d nhdm ngudi dan ven bien cho thay ty lg sd ngudi cho rang BDKH da va dang xay cdn thap, sd la dudi 85% (Bang 1) Trong dd, ty le cao so ngudi tia ldi khdng biet va klidng tia ldi cau hdi cdn cao Digu cho thay nhan thiic cua ngudi dan ve BDKH cdn thip Bang 1: NHAN THU'C VE NGUYEN NHAN CUA BIEN D O I KHI HAU Da va dang xay (%) 85 Cac phmmg an Chira xay ra, tiroTig lai xiiv (%) Hoan toan khong xay (%) Nuoi danli bat thuy hai san 78 11 5.6 Nghe khae 74 5,3 Lam muoi 83 8,3 Cac nhom nghe Trong trot chan nuoi gia sue Ngudn: Phdn tich kit qud dieu tra cua tdc gid (2019) Nhan thirc vi bieu hien cita BDKH Nhan thitc vg bieu hien ciia BDKH ciia ngudi dan cdn thap Hg nhan bigt dugc cac hien tugng gan gui, cu thg nhat ddi vdi ddi sdng hang nhu sy thay ddi tan suat, thdi gian, va cudng ddcae hien tugng ve bao, ban, mua Idn, gidng Idc, nSng ndng Ty le sd ngudi tra ldi dua y kign rat ddng y cao nhat chigm 61,7% tdng sd ngudi cd cau tra ldi Cac nhan dinh manh tinh khai quat hem nhu PHAT T R I E N B E N V O N G V C J N G Q U Y E N 9, SO (9/2019) 143 NGHIEN CO'U THU'C NGHIEM - KINH NGHIEM nhan dinh cdc hien tuang xdy vdo cdc khodng thdi gian khde hon so v&i tru&c khien nhigu ngudi tia ldi khdng chac chan va khdng ed cau tia ldi, ciing nhu ty le ddng y va rat ddng y rat thap eon sd la 40% tdng sd ngudi cd cau tia ldi Trong tdng sd nhiing ngudi tra ldi chi cd 32 ngudi (chigm 23,7%) cd y kien d miic ddng y trd len vdi ca nhan dinh vg BDKH (Hinh 1) HINH 1: TY LE NGUOL TRA LOI DONG Y VOI CAC NHAN DINH VE BIEU HIEN CUA BIEN DOI KHIHAU Cac hien tugng xay vao cac khoang thdi gian khac hoai so vdi trudc f////////////A IS ii— j^^~iZZZir2i Gia tang cac bign tuang bao, han, raua Idn, gidng, Yy///y//w//^iWM loc • • • • :-:- • 57.3 ^6-3 Gia tang nhiet, nhidu nang ndng hon ^yy>3yyyyyyyyyyyyy>^^^^^ va nang ndng nhieu han • • ""^ Mua Ion, bao lu nhidu han, manh hon , 6I.71 ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ Mue nitocbifa dang ^SSSmsmS^M^ 0.0 10.0 DKB/KTL 20.0 30 HRDY 40.0 DDY 50 60.0 70.0 BKDY Nguon: Phdn tich kit qud dieu tra cua tdc gid (2019) Nhdn thirc ve dnh hudng cua BDKH Nhan thirc vg anh hudng cua BDKH cho thay nhigu ngudi dan hoai nghi vg eac tac dgng ciia BDKH dgn boat dgng ciia ngudi Trong sd nhung tra ldi cau bdi cd dgn 30,1% so ngudi cho rdng "tdc ddng cua BDKH la khdng chdc chdn" Chi cd 37,6%) khdng ddng vdi nhan dinli nay, va sd cdn lai ludng lu ngn khdng cd cau tia ldi Tucfng tu eau hdi tign, can tra ldi cho cau hdi "mire nghiem trgng cua BDKH bi phdng dgi" cd 33,8%) sd ngudi ludng lu, va 30,8%) lua chgn "ddng y" hoac "rat ddng y" eho y kien "miic nghiim trgng cita BDKH bi phong dgi" Hau hgt d cac nhan dinh dugc dua la cac anh hudng cua BDKH dgn boat ddng kinh tg nhu "tdng ty li ddi ngheo", "gia tdng binh tdt cho nguoi", "tdc dgng bdt lgi din sire khde " ngudi tra ldi deu cd y kien "dongy" hoac "rdt dongy" Sd ngudi khdng "dongy" a cac nhan dinh tren chigm ty le nhd d miic dudi 10%) (Hinh 2) Tuy nhign, tiong sd eac nhan dinh ve anh budng eiia BDKH dugc ludng, cd nhan dinh la "mdt nai cu tru" va "tdng sd nguoi bi thuong, bi chit thien tai" ed sd lugng ngudi tia ldi thg hien y kign d miic "khdng dongy" rat cao, chigm trgn 1/3 sd ngudi tra ldi Dieu la dia ban cu trii xa Nhon Hai it chiu anh hudng ciia hoan luu cac can bao Idn, chii ygu la anh hudng ciia ap thap nhiet ddi Anh hudng cua cac hien tugng chii yeu dimg lai d viec gay lu, ngap lam hu hai cay trdng, rudng raudi va khdng ed thiet hai ve ngudi, nha cira (Bao eao tinh hinh phdng chdng thign tai va tim kigm ciru nan tren dia ban xa qua cac nam cho thay khdng cd thiet hai ve ngudi, nha cua Chu yeu la thiet hai vg hoa mau, mdng mudi) PHAT TRIEN B E N V O N G V D N G Q U Y E N 9, SO (9/2019) Trinh Thi Tuyet Dung - Nguyin Btrc Hoan Thuc trang nh§n thijc Hinh 2: NHAN THUC CUA NGUOl DAN VE A N H H U O N G CHUNG CUA BIEN DOI Kffl HAU Mat noi eu tni • ^ — , , Tang sd ngudi bi thuong, bi chgt thien tai Lam tang ty le ddi ngheo B.J Gia tang benh tat cho ngudi nhat la eac benh g i.a truygn nhigm Tac ddng tigu cue (bat lgi) dgn sire khde eon ^ ^ g ngudi ^^H 52.6 i^'49.6 • RBY HDY DKDY Nguon: Phdn tich kit qud diiu tra ciia tdc gid (2019) Nhdn thirc ve dnh huang cua BDKH din hogt dgng kinh te Trong cac loai hinh thdi tigt eye doan lya chgn dg ngudi dan danh gia tac dgng cho thay, cd bien Urang chinh la nfing ndng va ban ban dugc danh gia cd anh hudng to Idn khdng chi den boat dgng san xuit ndng nghiep tren dit lign Dai da sd ngudi dan cho rang nang ndng va ban han cd anh hudng nhigu den san xuat ndng nghiep (Hop 1), (Hinh 3) Hop 1: Xam hanh tdi gid khdng dugc nhu trudc kia, nhigu thigu nude hoac ngap ling, nang suat thap ban" Hien tugng nang ndng gay ban ban anh hudng Idn den dien tieh dit san xuat ndng nghiep khien ngudi dan phai cd nhieu bien phap khac nham thich img Dien tich trdng tigt canh tac nho, tao, hanh, tdi thi ap dung md hinh tudi nho gigt vira tigt kiem nude va van dam bao cung cip dii lugng nude cho cay sinh trudng Bgn canh dd, thdi tigt nang ndng lai giiip cho eay nho cd dugc chat lugng la nang suit tdt ban (Hop 2) Hop "Cay nho ua khd ndng, cho tiai ngon nggt hon, nang ndng lai cd nang suat ban" Hinh 3: NHAN THU'C CUA NGUOl DAN VE ANH HUONG CUA BIEN DOI KHI H A U DEN TRONG TROT VA CHAN NUOI 150 100 50 Bern vi % 100 I N5ng nong 30.3 lan Mua 16m ^ u lut Han han Sa mac hoa Qlt • Trung binh HNhiSu a KB Bao Nguon • PJidn tich kit qud dieu tra cita tdc gid (2019) P H A T T R I S N B t N VONG V D N G QUYfeN 9, SO (9/2019) 145 NGHIEN CU'U THU'C NGHlEM - KINH NGHlEM Nhdn thirc dnh hu&ng cita BDKH din nudi trdng ddnh bdt thuy hdi sdn man ciia dam nudi lam thiet hai khdng nhd dgn thiiy bai san Tucmg ty vdi boat ddng trdng trgt va chan nudi, nudi trdng va danh bat thiiy bai san cung nhu lam mudi bi anh budng Idn bdi Men tirgng nang ndng va ban ban Trgn 2/3 so ngudi tia ldi cho rang BDKH anh hudng Idn dgn hoat ddng kinh te chinh cua hg Anh hudng cua bao va ngap lut den thuy san va danh bat bai san d miic thap hon nhigu (Hinh 4) Digu kha phii hgp vdi bao cao ve tinh binh tMet bai anh hudng tir thign tai tdi kinh tg cua xa Theo cac bao cao trudc dd, xa thudng xuygn chju anh hudng ciia bien tugng thdi tigt khd ban va thigu nude chung trgn dia ban xa Ddi vdi nudi trdng thiiy san, thieu nude nggt khien tang Hop 3: Phdng van sau chinh quyen xa va ngudi dan dgu cho bigt dien tich thieu nude san xuat, khd ban gia tang va dang chuygn sang lam dam mudi "Han la thieu nude nggt bom vao cac dam tdm, vu thu kem ban" Ngugc lai vdi nhiing tac ddng tieu cye cac hien tugng thdi tiet eye doan gay ngn, nang ndng lai tao dieu kien cho san xuat mudi d xa Nhan Hai ed nhigu thuan lgi Hinh 4: NHAN THUC CUA NGUOl D A N VE A N H H U O N G CUA BIEN DOI KHI H^U DEN NUOI TRONG THUY S A N 41.741 i 20.8 ^1 11^ LuJul Han lian H tnmg binh • nliieu Ngudn: Phdn tich kit qua diiu tra ciia tdc gid (2019) Nhdn thirc vi dnh huong cua BDKH din sice khde ngu&i Phan ludng nlian thiic cua ngudi dan vg cac bien tirgng: nang ndng, nude bign dang, bao va ap thap nhiet ddi, ngap lut, ban han dgn sire khde eua ngudi cho thay phan Idn ngudi dan cho ring nang ndng va ban han ed anh hudng cao dgn siic khde ngudi dan Chi sd la tren 80%) sd ngudi tra ldi (Hinh 5) Trong khi dua y kign eua ea nhan vg anh budng ciia cac hien tugng thdi tigt khac thi da sd ngudi tra ldi lya chgn d mire trung binh, tham ehi d miic thap Dieu ehii ygu la dac digm dia phuang it chiu anh hudng eua cac hien tugng khac va chiing khdng cd tac ddng Idn dgn sire khde eiia ngudi dan noi PHAT TRIEN BEN V O N G V U N G Q U Y E N 9, SO (9/2019) Trjnh Thj Tuylt Dung - Nguyen Ditc Hoan Thuc trang nhSn thirc mnh 5: NHAN THUC CUA NGUOI DAN VE ANH HUONG CUA BIEN DOI KHI H A U DEN StlC KHOE Han ban m-iOi \/y^/'/'/'/yY/'/ " "^'//Yy'/y'y'y'/y'yA Nguon: Phdn tich ket qud diiu tra cua nhdm tdc gid (2019) Nhdn thuc vi hogt ddng img phd Cac hoat ddng img phd vdi BDKH bao gdm cac boat ddng giup giam lugng phat thai nha kinh duac cho la nguyen nhan cua BDKH ciing nhu thay ddi phuong thirc san xuat dg thich iing vdi BDKH Nhan thiic ciia ngudi dan vg cac boat dgng ling phd cdn thieu, chua day du Phan Idn ddng y vdi nhan dinh ve "tdng cu&ng trdng vd bdo vi rimg" va nhan dinh "thay ddi cdch thirc sdn xuat ndng Idm nghiep thich img voi BDKH", day cung la nhung hoat ddng thigt thuc va gan giii nhat doi vdi ngudi dan Tuy nhign, hg khdng nhan thuc dugc ban chat ciia boat ddng phai la giam ngudn gay nhigm radi trudng Trong sd nhiing ngudi tia ldi cd 39 ngudi, chiem 28,9%o sd ngudi tia ldi ddng y vdi ea boat ddng trgn deu la cae hoat ddng img phd vdi BDKH (Hinh 6) Va nhung ngudi cd boat ddng kirih te chinh la danh bat va nudi thiiy hai san cd nhan thirc vg boat ddng img phd vdi BDKH tdt bon la nhung ngudi co boat dgng kmh te chinh la tidng trgt va chan nudi Dg giam su phuc thudc vao sy thay ddi cua cac hien tugng thign tai va thdi tigt cye doan dgn san xuat ndng lam thuy san, ngudi dan va chinh quygn xa phdi hop cimg xay dyng hd trii nude va he thdng kenh dan nhara cung cap nude smh boat va san xuat cho ngudi dan xa tir 10 nam trudc Hinh 6: NHAN THLTC VE HOAT DONG UNG PHO VOl BIEN D I KHI HAU CUA NGUOl D A N Tang cudng va bao ve rimg Giam cac hoat dgng lam gia tang thai Thay doi each thiic san xuat nong lam nghiep thich ling vm BDKH Ngudn: Phdn tich kit qud dieu tia cita nhdm tdc gid (2019) PHAT TRIEN BEN VCfNG VUNG QUYEN 9, SO (9/2019) NGHIEN CU'U THU'C NGHlEM - KINH NGHlEM Diem nhdn thirc tdng hop cua ngu&i ddn vi BDKH Digra nhan tbiic tdng bop ciia ngudi dan vg BDKH dugc xac dinh chay khoang tir dgn 11,7 Trong cd ngudi cd diem cao nhat la 11,7 digm tdng sd phan digm, va I ngudi cimg dat 6,6 digm Digm nhan thirc trung binh ciia ngu'di dan la 6,5 digm, digm trung vi la 6,6 Theo dd cd 50%) sd ngudi tia ldi cd digra tir dudi 6,6 diem Phan phdi diera nhan thiic tdng hgp cua ngudi dan kha tap tnmg va la mdt phan phdi chuin lech tiai (do cd xien la -0,473 thugc khoang tir -1 den Do xign thg hien miic bat ddi xiing cua phan Bang 2: DIEM NHAN THlTC VE BIEN phdi xac xuat ciia mdt bign ngau nhien: = la phan phdi can xiing, >0 la phan phdi lech phai, < la phan phdi lech trai) Quan sat cae diem nhan thirc phan vg BDKH nhu: nguyen nhan ciia BDKH, higu Men cua BDKH, anh hudng ciia BDKH, va cac boat ddng ling phd vdi BDKH cho thay Dnt vg nguygn nhan cua BDKH dgu cd diem trung binh va digm trung vi cao nliat, sd la 1,5 va 1,97 diem Trong dd cac Dnt cdn lai thap hon, thap nhat la Dnt vg boat dgng iing phd Cac chi sd eua digm thap bon han vdi digm tnmg binh la 0,6 digm va digra tmng vi la 0,88 digm D6I KHi HAU CUA NGUOl DAN Gia tri nho nhat Gia trj 16'n nhat Gia tri trung hinh Diem nhan thiic tong hgp 11,7 6,5 Nhan thiic ve nguyen nhan cua BDKH 3,0 1,97 Nhan thuc ve bieu hien cua BDKH 3,0 1,43 Nhan thuc ve anh hucmg ctia BDKH 2,7 1,54 Nhan thtrc ve hoat dong ting vai BDKH 3,0 1,54 Ngudn: Nhdm tdc gid (2019) 3.2 Xu hu&ng nhan thirc cda ngu&i dan Cae van dg vg nhan thirc ciia ngudi dan cho thay nhd cac phuong tien truygn thdng phd bign nhu dai va ti vi ma ngudi dan cang cang cd Men biet hon vg cum tir "biin ddi hgu" Nhd do, phan Idn ngudi dugc hdi ty danh gia rang nhan thirc vg BDKH cua hg cd tang ign eho dii day chi la nhQ-ng bieu biet ca ban nhat vg van dg BDKH Tuy nhign, cd mdt sd khdng nhd nhiing ngudi dugc hdi cho rang nhan thiic ciia hg kem di 10 nam qua sy suy giam tri nhd vg gia ldi cd quan tam den van de ve BDKH nhung day khdng phai la im tien cua bg Thyc tg mdi quan tam Idn nhat cua hg la van dg Hgn quan tryc tiep, cy the va rd nhat dgn ddi sdng eiia hg la "thu nhap vd viic Idm " (Hinh 7) Mdi quan tam dgn eac van dg lign quan den radi trudng, bign ddi hau, su cd mdi trudng la nhu va xgp thii hai Ket qua phdng van sau ngudi dan ciing cho thay thyc tg ngudi dan quan tam va higu biet rd ret hon den cac hien tugng thdi tigt cu the thudng anh hudng dgn ddi sdng va san xuat la "ndng ndng" va su thay ddi ciia raiia raua nam Mdi quan tam cua ngudi dan ddi vdi cac van de vg BDKH ciing cd nhigu sy khac biet Ngudi tra 148 PHAT TRIEN BEN V O N G VONG Q U Y E N 9, s o (9/2019) Trjnh Thj Tuyet Dung - Nguyin Dih: Hoan ThiJC trang nh^n thirc Hinh 7: MLTC DO QUAN T A M CUA NGUOl D A N VEN BIEN D £ N M O T SO V A N DE D o n vi % Thu nhap va viec lam Ngheo ddi Benh dich EiEiE3a3CH3 51.9 L•••.•••••••••••••••••••—••^S^ Suy thoai mdi trudng nhigm mdi trudng Bign doi hau '••••f.j-.j- -.j-.f.i-.t^>-.i-.ti 10.0 20.0 DRat quan tam 30.0 ^- Quan tam 40.0 50.0 60.0 B Khong quan tam Ngudn: Nhdm tdc gid (2019) Cac phuang tien truygn thdng ciing cd tac ddng lam nang cao nhan tbiic cua ngudi dan Khao sat cho thay nhirng ngudi cd nhan tbiic tdt bon cd xu hudng sd biiu day dii cac thigt bi truygn thdng hien dai nhu, ti-vi, dien thoai thdng minh va cd sir dung mang internet Viec sir dung cae thigt bi thudng xuygn tao kha nang cho viec ca nlian dd tigp can vdi cae ngudn tin cd lign quan den BDKH mgt each ngau nhign Vi du, ngudi xem, ngudi nghe cho rang hg khdng bigt va khdng chu ddng tim den cac cum tii nhu "BDKH" nhung hg lai vd tinh xem, nghe trgn dai hoac tivi Tham cbi nhiing ngudi tre tudi lai vd tinh bigt dgn qua cac trang mang xa hdi Idn nhu facebook Hop 4: " cung khdng biet ve BDKH, xem trgn mang ed liic tu nhign thay tign facebook thi biet thdi" 3.3 Cdcyeu to dnh hu&ng den nhan thirc cda ngu&i ddn Khac biet trinh hgc vdn Phan tich cac nhan td anh hudng dgn nhan thiic cua ngudi dan ven bien vg BDKH cho thay cac bien nhdm tudi, sir dung ti-vi, sir dung dien thoai thdng minh, nghe dai, sir dung mang internet, trinh hoc van cd thg giai thich dugc 12,2%) sy khac biet nhan thiic ciia ngudi dan ven bign vg BDKH Cdn lai ban 80%o phu thudc vao cac nhdm nhan td khac khdng dugc quan sat Phan tich mdi tuong quan giii'a eac cap bign gdm trinh bgc van, boat ddng kinh tg chu ygu va digm nhan thitc tdng hgp thi cU cd cap la diem tong hgp va trinh nhan thiic cd mdi tuong quan thuan cd y nghia Theo do, trinh hgc van cang cao thi diem nhan thirc cua ngudi dan ven bign ve BDKH cang cao Mdi quan tdm din mdi tru&ng Moi quan tam cua ngudi dan ddi vdi cae van dg vg BDKH ciing ed nhigu su khac biet Ngudi tia ldi cd quan tam dgn van dg vg BDKH nhung day khdng phai la uu tien ciia hg Thuc te mdi quan tam Idn nhat ciia hg la van de lign quan true tigp, cy thg va ro nhat dgn ddi sdng ciia bg la "thu nhap va viec lam" Mdi quan tam den cac van dg lien quan dgn radi trudng, bign ddi kbi ban, su cd mdi trudng la nhu va xgp thii hai Kgt qua phdng van sau ngudi dan ciing cho thay thyc tg ngudi dan quan tara va Meu biet rd ret hon dgn cac hien tugng thai tiet eu thg thudng anh hudng den ddi sdng va san xuat la "nang ndng" va su thay ddi cua miia mua nam Truyin thdng ve bien ddi hdu Cac phuang tien truygn thdng ciing cd tac ddng lam nang eao nhan thiic ciia ngudi dan Khao sat cho thay nhirng ngudi cd nhan thiic tdt ban cd xu hudng sd hiiu day du cae thigt bi truygn thdng hien dai nhu, ti vi, dien thoai thdng minh va ed sir dung PHAT T R I E N BEN VCfNG VUNG Q U Y E N 9, SO (9/2019) NGHIEN Cliu THU'C NGHiEM - KINH NGHlEM mang intemet Ngugc lai, nhiing ngU'di tra ldi ma hd gia dinh dd sd huu day du cac thiet bi: dai, ti-vi, dien thoai thdng minh, raang intemet dgu ed digm nhan thiic d mire trung binh trd lgn Trong dd ed 37,5 sd ngudi tra ldi ed sd hiiu day du cac thigt bi tren cd diem nhan thiic d miic cao Ciing cd ngudi thudc nhdm nhung ed miic dd nhan thiic thap hg thudc nhdm ngudi cao tudi, cae thiet bi bien cd hg khdng su dyng raa ngudi khac tiong gia dinh sir dyng Nhin chung, cac phuong tien va cac each thuc truyen thdng vg BDKH va cac van de hen quan dgn mdi trudng, phdng chdng va giara nhe nii ro thien tai tien dia ban xa giiip ngudi dan ed nhan thirc tdt ban vg van dg BDKH Kgt luan Nghien ciiu nhan thiic cua ngudi dan ven bien ve BDKH trgn cac gdc ve sy tdn tai, nguyen nhan, bigu hien, tac ddng cua BDKH va cac boat ddng ling phd vdi BDKH cho thay radt sd van dg CO ban sau: Ngudi dan ven bien ed nhan thiie khdng cao ve su ton tai cua BDKH cting nhu ve nguygn nhan va cac bigu bien eua BDKH Hau bet hg nhan thirc dugc cae van de co ban nhat va cy thg nhat vg BDKH va cac bign tugng thdi tiet eye doan la nang ndng va sy thay ddi eiia raiia raua nam Kgt qua phan tich mdi tu'ong quan va md hmh eho thay hau nhu cac bign nhan khau hgc khdng co mdi tuong quan cd y nghia ddi vdi digm nhan thiic ve BDKH Bign trinh bgc van cd tuong quan thuan vdi diem nhan thiic nhung cung chi giai thich dugc ty le khdng cao vg nhan thirc ciia ngudi dan vg BDPCH Bgn canh do, cac bien vg phuang tien truygn thdng cung khdng ly giai dugc nhan thirc kbi ket qua eiia phdng van sau lai cho thay ngudi dan cd tbgm cac kign thiic ve BDKH thdng qua cac phucmg tien tmygn thdng nhu bao dai Vi vay, day la radt ban che ciia nghign cmi va cd thg can tim higu sau hon cac nghign ciiai tigp theo Cudi cimg, nghign ciru sii dung kgt hgp ca phuang phap digu tra bang hdi va phdng v§.n sau dg dua kgt qua nghien ciiu Nghign cim ciing ed thg md mgt sd hudng nghign ciiu tiep theo nhu: Phan tich kgt hgp giiia nhan thiic vg anh budng ciia BDKH dgn boat ddng kinh te di kem vdi phan tich sd lieu quan trae va thiet hai hang nam de phan vimg miic anh hudng Kgt hgp them ndi dung se cho cai nhin tdng thg xem lieu ngudi dan ed nhan thiic diing dugc miic anh hudng cua BDKH dgn dia ban ciia bg hay khdng? Digu se thyc su can thigt dg dua khuygn nghi dg giiip ngudi dan cd nhan thiie dung dan vg tac ddng cua BDKH, tii dd ed nhiing bien phap thich iing nham giam thigu tac ddng cua BDKH dgn ddi sdng va boat ddng kinh tg Tai ligu tham khao Ahmad, K (2014) Students' perception of the Learning Environment in Bussiness education m Kuwait: A comparative study between private and public Universities Journal of business stutdies quarterly, volume 5, nuber 3, pp 59-68 bttp://jbsq.org/wrp-content/uploads/2014/03/March_20l4_6.pdf Aini, M.S., Chan, S.C, and Jyuhaily, C (2013) Predictors of teehmcal adoption and behavioural change to transport energy-saving meansures in response to climate change Energy policy 61, pp.10551062 Chiang (2018) Exploring community risk perceptions of climate change - A case study of a floodprone urban area of Taiwan Cities, pp.42-51 Dang Dinh Thang (2013) Nhan thiic ve bign ddi hau va danh gia ciia ngudi dan cho chinh sach giam thieu tac ddng: Nghien ciiu tiardng hgp Thanh phd Hd Chi Minh, Viet Nam Tgp chi Khoa hgc vd Phdt trien, tap 11, sd 4, tr.519-592 http://www.vnua.edu,vn/tapchi/ Upload/1292013-tc so 4.2013 582-592.pdf DOENI (2012) Public perceptions on climate change in Northern Ireland 2012 http://vAvw.doeni.gov.uk/public_perception_on_elimate_cbange_report_2012.pdf PHAT TRIEN BEN V O N G V U N G Q U Y E N 9, SO (9/2019) Trinh Thi Tuyet Dung - Nguyen Birc Hoan Thyc trang nhan thiJc Dube., T., and Phiri, K (2013) Rural livelihoods under stiess: the impact of climate change on livelihoods in South Wetem Zimbabwe American international journal of contemporary research Vol No 5, pp 11-25 https://aijcmet.eom/joumals/Vol_3_No_5_May_2013/2.pdf Escarcha, J., Lassa, J.A., Palacpac, E.p.,and Zander, K.K (2018) Understanding climate change impacts on water buffalo production through farmers' perceptions Climate risk manegement, Available online 28 March 2018 Escarcha, J P., Lassa, J A., Palacpac, E P., and Zander, K K (2018) Undersatanding climate impacts on water buffalo production through farmers' perceptions Climate Risk Management, bttps://doi.org/10.10l6/j.crm.2018.03.003 Hasan, M.K., and Kumar, L (2019).Comparison between meteorological data and farmer perceptions of eliraate change and vulnerability in relation to adaptation Journal of Environmental Management, Volume 237, May 2019, pp54-62 10 Jitendra, K.S., Bellad, A,A., and Angolkar, M (2015) Assessment of the knowledge and altitude regarding global warming among high school students of Ramnagar, Belagavi city: A cross-Sectional study Journal of Dental and Medical Sciences, Vol 14, Issue Ver VI, pp.74-78 http://www.iosrjournals.org/iosr-jdms/papers/Voll4-issue4/Version-6/O014467478.pdf 11 Lg Nguygn Doan Khdi (2011) Nhan thiic cua cdng ddng ve tac ddng cua bien ddi kbi hau dgn san xuat ndng nghiep va cac giai phap irng Tgp chi khoa hgc xa hgi Dgi hgc Hue, sd 67, tr 23-30 12 Lin, T.,Cao, X., Huang, N., Xu, L., Li, X., Zhao, Y , and Lin, J (2018) Social cognition of cbmate change in coastal community: A case study in Xiamen City, China Ocean & Coastal Management Available online March 2018 https://doi.org/10.1016/] ocecoaman.2018.02 025 13 Luong Thi Thu Hang (2016) De tai cap Nha nude Ddnh gid tdc ddng cita BDKH den nhdm nguoi ngheo & Bdc Bg Viet Nam vd di xudt cdc gidi phdp gidm thieu Chuang trinh khoa bgc va cdng nghe phuc vu Chuang tinh MTQG iing phd vdi BDKH (KHCN-BDKH/11-15) 14 Ojomo, E., Elliot, M., Arajad, U., and Bartiam, J (2015) Climate change prepardness: A Knowledge and Attitudes student in Southem Nigeria Environmet, 5, pp 435-448 15 Poortinga, W., Whitmarsh, L., Steg, L., Bdbm, G., and Fisher, S (2019) Climate change perceptions and their individual-level determinants: A cross-European analysis Global Environmental Change, Volume 55, March 2019, pp.25-35 16 SilviaLuis, Christin-Melanie, VauelairMaria and LuisaLima (2018) Raising awareness of climate change causes? Cross-national evidence for the normalization of societal risk perception of climate change Environmental Science & Policy, Volume 80, February 2018,'Pp 74-81 17 Zelezny, L.C., Chua, P.P., and Aldricb, C (2000) New Ways of Thinking about Environmental ism: Elaborating on Gender Differences in EnvironmentaHsm Journal of Social Issues 56 (3), pp.443^57 18 Zhai, S.Y., Song, G.X., Qin, Y.C., Ye, X.Y., and Leipnik, M (2018) Climate change and Chinese farmers: Perceptions and determinants of adaptive strategies Journal of Integrative Agriculture Volume 17, Issue 4, April 2018,pp.949-963 19 Ziegler, A (2017) Political orientation, environmental values, and climate change beliefs and attitudes: An empirical cross country analysis Energy Economics, Volume 63, March 2017, pp 144-153 Thong tin tac gia: Trinh Thi Tuyet Dung, Th S - Daii vi cdng tac: Vien Nghign ciiu Phat tiien bgn viing Vung, Vien Han lam Khoa hgc xa hdi Viet Nam - Dia ehi email: tuyetdungsp@graail.com Nguyin Due Hoan, Th.S - Dan vi cdng tac: Vien Nghign ciiu Phat tiign bgn viing Vung, Vien Han lam Khoa hgc xa hdi Viet Nam Ngaynhanbai: 05/8/2019 Ngay nhan ban sua: 12/9/2019 Ngay duyet dang: 22/9/2019 P H A T TRIEN BEN VO-NG VUNG QUYEN 9, s o (9/2019) 151 ... Phuffngphdp dieu tra Nghien ciru thyc hien dieu tra bang bdi ngudi dan ven bign Ddi tugng dugc chgn khao sat la ngudi dan tai xa ven bign Nhan Hai thudc huyen Ninh Hai, tinh Ninh Thuan Trong dd ngudi... tiam sy khac biet tiong nhan thiic vg BDKH cua ngudi dan ven bign Kgt qua nghien cihi Dg phan tieh thyc trang nhan thirc ciia ngudi dan ven bien vg BDKH, nghien ciru sir dung phuang an gan tigng... cua ngudi dan ven bien ve BDKH trgn cac gdc ve sy tdn tai, nguyen nhan, bigu hien, tac ddng cua BDKH va cac boat ddng ling phd vdi BDKH cho thay radt sd van dg CO ban sau: Ngudi dan ven bien ed