Su" dung phiTorng phap CODA danh gia cac yeu to anh hu'dng den ca cau chi tieu cua khach du lich noi dia • • • TRjNH TH! HCJCfNG* LE VAM TUAN" D A M TH! THG TRAMG"* Tom tat Nghien edu gidi thieu vd sd dung ly thuyet mdi - phUOng phdp phdn tich so lieu da hgp (Compositional data analysis - CODA) xem xet ddnh gid cdc ye'u to dnh hudng den cO edu ehi tiiu cap qudc gia cda khdch du lich ngi dia tgi Viet Nam, gam cd dia diem du lich, nguon thong tin trudc du lieh vd dgc diem nhdn khau hgc cua khdch du lich Nhdm tdc gid gap khd khdn tii'p can so liiu, nin cdc ddnh gid dugc minh hga trin so Ueu dupe lay ta Kit qud dieu tra chi tieu cua khdch du lich ndm 2013 Tong cue Thd'ng ki thiic hien Tijf khda: eacdu chi tieu, du lieh, khdch du lich ngi dia Summary The study introduces and utilizes new theoiy - Compositional data analysis (CODA) method to assess factors affecting expenditure structure at national level of domestic tourists in Vietnam, including tourist destinations, sources ofpre-trip information and demographic characteristics of tourists Due to difficulties in accessing data, the assessments are based on data taken from the 2013 Tourism Expenditure Survey conducted by the General Statistics Office Keywords: expenditure structure, tourism, domestic tourists G\6l THIEU Ca'u true chi tieu ciia khdch du Ijch cd anh hu'dng de'n chien lUdc phdt trien du lich ciia Viet Nam vd ngu'dc lai TCf xu hifdng chi tidu ciia khdch du lich, Tdng cue Du lich va cdc dia phifdng se len ke' hoach phat trien ke't ca'u tang va cac san pham du lich dd thiic day chi tieu cao hdn nCfa cua khdch du lich Ben canh dd, cac dia phUdng cd the chii ddng phdt trien ke't ca'u tang vd san pham theo dac diem cua dia phu'dng va ti^ dd tac dong de'n xu hifdng chi tieu ciia khdch du iich Cu the, mii'c chi tieu binh qudn mdt ngay/khach phan dnh mu'c dd thu nhdp ciia ngu'di ddn dia phu'dng, tii ddng gdp cho kinh te dia phifdng Ddng thdi, mu'c chi tieu binh quan mdt ngay/khach cung phan dnh xu hu'dng chi tieu cua khdch difa trdn ddc diem va cdc san pham du lich ciia dia phifdng Miic chi binh quan mdt cang cao se cdng tot cho kinh te dia phifdng ' Mac du, nghien cu'u ye xu hifdng chi tieu cua khach du lich rat can thie't bd'i canh phdt tnen thi trifdng du lich tai Viet Nam, nhifng cac nghien cihi lai han che' va phiic tap nhidu nhan td' khach quan vd chu quan Khao sdt ciia nhdm tac gia cho thd'y, cac nghien ciiM ve chi tieu cua khdch du lich tai Viet Nam mdi dijfng d cd'p dia phu'dng hoac cdp vung, chifa cd danh gia chung d ca'p qud'c gia; cd cau chi tieu diidc the hien qua cdc bang thdng ke cd ban, bieu dd hinh cot va hinh trdn ddn gian Cac nghien cu'u cung chu'a su: dung cdc cdng cu phan tich thdng ke mdi, phia hdp vdi dac diem cua thdng ke du lich Chung tdi sii dung phifdng phdp CODA de xdc dinh cac yeu td chinh anh hifdng den cd cau chi tieu Day Id lan dau tidn •TS., "ThS., " ' T h S , TrUdng Dai hoc ThUdng mai Nfidy nhdn bdi: 09/02/2020; Ngdy phdn bien: 18/02/2020; Ngdy duyel ddng: 24/02/2020 phifdng phdp difdc s^ dung ddnh gia ve Cd cd'u chi tieu cua khach du lich tai Viet Nam Cdc danh gid difdc minh hpa tren sd lidu chi tieu cua khdch du hch ndi dia tai 30 tinh, phdtijf bp sdlieu dieu tra chi tieu cua khdch du licli 2013 (Dieu tra chi tieu ciia khdch du lich ndi dia dUdc tien hanh cac nam 2005,2009,2013 vd 2017 Tuy nhien, khd khan de'p can sd lieu, nen nghien cu\i siif dung sdlieu nam 2013) PHUtfNG PHAP NGHIEN CLfU Phrfdng phap CODA Gan day, Ferrer - Rosell va cdng sU (2015,2016a,2016b, 2017,2018)da phat trien phUdng phap CODA va dp dung vao phan tich cd cd'u chi tieu ciia khach du lich PhUdng phdp CODA dUdc minh hpa qua cac dang bieu mdi: bieu tam giac (ternary) va bieu cdy phdn Idp (Dendogram) bang phan td day nhi phdn (sequential binary partidon, SBP) de minh hpa cd'u tnic chi tieu Ddng thdi, md hinh hdi quy dtfa tren dii lieu da hdp cung difdc phdt trien, diia trdn hdi quy tuye'n tinh theo phUdng phap binh phUdng be nhd't (OLS) TU dd, dUa dd'n cdc nghien cdu sdu ve anh hudng ciia ca'u tnic chi tieu den bie'n quan tam (vi du GDP cua mot qud'c gia) va anh hu'dng cua cdc nhdn to khdc dd'n cd cd'u chi tieu binh quan mdt Phifdng phap dUdc ddnh gid la mdi vd cho ke't qua kha chinh xdc nghien culi xem xet nhieu yeu to anh hu'dng den cd cd'u chi tieu cd'p qud'c gia, gdm ca dia diem du lich, ngudn thdng tin trUdc du lich va dac diem nhan khau hpc cua khach du Hch CODA dUdc the hidn qua bang phan td day nhi phdn, mdt vec td da hdp S gdm D ty dUdc bieu didn sidu phang S°: S0= (s = (S,,S ,S^):S^>0,j = 1,2, , D: £5^=-^} j=i Trong dd, kj- hieu la chuyen vj ciia vec td S va tdng cdc ty trpng cua vec td S bang hoac 100% Vi md'i quan he phu thudc giu'a cdc ty trpng td'c la tdng bang 1, cac md hinh hoi quy thdng thUdng se khong dUdc ap dung Phep toan ty le logarit danj cU (isometric log-ratio, ILR) chuyen doi D ty irpng sidu phang ve vec to gdm D- i toa dd khdng gian Euclide thdng thudng (Egozcue vd cdng sU, 2003) BAtiG 1: VI Pg PHAN TO DAY MH! NGQYEM (SBP) TROt^G SIEG PHANG S" s, s, s, S^ Y nghia 1 -! -1 Phanto {Sj.Sj} va {S3, S J -1 0 Phan to S, va S, 0 -1 Phan to S3 va S^ Phep bie'n ddi ILR dUa tren tpa dO cdn bang (balance coordinates) tif phdn td day nhi nguyen (sequential binary partition, SBP) ciia D ty trpng Cu the: Budc 1: Tpa dp can bdng thii nhd't dUdc phan nhdm khdng trung nhau: nhdm tii* sd' va nhdm mdu sd', ky hieu la vd -1 Budc 2: Tifng nhdm nhd tren dUdc tid'p tuc phdn td hai toa bp cdn bang, kf hidu vd -1 Nhdm nhd khdng dUdc phdn td ki hieu la Vi du ciia phan td day nhi nguyen ciia sieu phang chieu cd vec td dUdc thd hidn d Bang TUdng u'ng vdi vi du phan td day nhi nguyen (SBP) d Bang I, phep bie'n ddi ILR tUdng iing, gdm toa dp la: ILR, ; ILR^ = i^ln -^; ILR^ = U-h Khi dd, nhu mieu ta Bang 1, tpa dp chiJa thdng tm so sdnh sd thay ddi giiia phan td {S,, S^} va {S3, S^} TUdng tu, ILR^ (tUdng tU ILR^ chtia thdng tin so sanh ty S^ va S-, (tUdng tU S^ va S^) Nghien cii'u Pawlowsky-Glahn va Buccianti (2011) chiing minh phep bie'n doi ILR cd anh xa ngUdc, td'c la cd the lay nghich dao cua ILR de dat cdc gid tri ty trpng tUdng ting sieu phang Sau qua trinh bie'n ddi, cdc gia tn ILR cd the ddng vai trd la bidn phu thudc hoac bie'n ddc Idp md hinh hdi quy thdng thUdng Vi du ddn gian la md hinh hdi quy tuye'n tinh theo phUOng phap binh phifdng tdi thieu (OLS) Giai thich y nghTa cua he sd' hdi quy cd thd dUdc giai thich gian tie'p, tiic la sU tdc ddng cua bien ddc lap len cdc bie'n ILR (Muller va cdng sii, 2016; Dumuid vd cdng sif, 2018), hoac cd the giai thich trifc tie'p, tdc la sif tac ddng ciia bid'n ddc Idp Idn tiing ty trong sieu phang (Morals vd cdng sU,2018) Dong thdi, sif dung phan td day nhi nguyen (SBP), bieu dd cay phan Idp (CoDa-Dendogram) dUdc ap dung de so sdnh cac thd'ng ke cd ban giiia cdc phdn td So' lieu didu tra chi tidu cua khach du lich noi dia Nghidn cu'u dUa tren sd' lieu dieu tra chi tidu ciia khach du lich dUdc Tdng cue Thdng ke dieu tra thang 07/2013 Bd sd heu gdm ca khdch du lich ndi dia (24.139 lu'ot khach) tai 30 tinh, didnh phd trifc thudc Trung Udng va khdch qudc te' de'n Viet Nam (9.500 lifdt khach) tai 14 tinh, Bd sd lieu thu thap chi tidu ciia khdch tu sap xe'p di va khach di theo tour Nghien cUu ban che'tren khach du lich ndi dia tU sap xep di (17.218 lUdt khach) Phid'u dieu tra du lich thu thdp thdng tin vd nhan khau hpc ciia khdch du hch, bao gdm: nhdm hidi, gidi tinh 27 BAMG 2: PHAM TO D A Y NHI MGUYEN (SBP) TROMG SIEG P H A N G PHAM MUC CHI 'nEG S = (S^ ^ ^ , S^^, S^ s ST™^ 1 -i 1 0 Y ngbia Sf^d s*™™-.*1 s , ) Pti3n tg {S^^„^„^ S^^,^,} va {S,^^, S^^^^^^J Phant6'S^^„^,,^^vaS.,._^^,^i Phan id S^^^ vi* S^^^^^^^^^„ Nguon Tong hdp c tac gia muc dich chuyen di, cdc ngudn thdng tin tham khao de quyet dinh chuye'n di va miic dp hai long chuyd'n di Ddc biet, dieu tra chii trpng vao chi tieu cua tifng khoan muc ciia khach du lich nhU muc dich ciia cudc didu d-a Trong dd, phUdng phdp long hdp sd lieu dUdc dp dung theo phUdng phdp binh qudn Cu the: Sd d lai binh qudn _ Tong sd khach d lai lUdt khach Tdng sd khach Chi deu binh qudn _ Tdng so lien chi tieu cua khach lUdt khach = Tdng sd khach Chi lieu binh quan lUdt khdch Chi lieu binh qudn khdch " sd d lai binh quan lUdt khdch Cdc chi phi chuye'n du lich dUdc chia thdnh each khoan muc chinh: (1) Chd d (Accomodation); (2) An udng (Food); (3) Di lai (Travel); (4) Chi phi tham quan; (5) Chi phi mua hang hda, qua lifu niem, ky niem; (6) Chi phi dich vu van hda, the thao, giai tri; (7) Chi phi mua thuo'c chila benh, dich vu y te'; (8) Chi khac DUa vdo thd'ng ke cd ban ciia chi tidu binh quan khach va chi tieu binh qudn tUng khoan muc ngay/khdch, nghien ciiu gdp chung cdc khoan muc (4) dd'n khoan muc (8) va gpi chung la khoan muc chi cho cac hoat ddng (Activity) Mdc chi tieu blnh qudn ngay/khach cho tCfng khoan muc dUdc tinh tu'dng tif nhu chi tieu binh quan ngay/khach Tii do, cd ca'u chi binh quan khdch cho tUng khodn muc (ddn vi: %, phan trdm) dUdc xdc dinh nhu sau: Chi tieu binh quan I ngay/khach = S^ ^ ^ + ^F d + s„.„, + s„,.,„ _ Tien chd d (Accomodation) * 100 Chi tieu binh qudn ngay/khach Tien an udng (Food) * 100 Food Q]^i (jgu i^-jj^h qudn ngdy/khdch-(%) _ Tien cdc boat ddng (Activity) '*' 100 Ac v.ti(^i^i jjgy ^-jjjjj qugjj ngay/khach -(%) (%) Cdch phdn chia cac khoan muc chi tieu nhu trdn ciing tlidng tif cdc nghien culi khach tren the' gidi nghien cu\i ve cd ca'u chi tieu cua khach du lich (Ferrer - Rosell vd Coenders, 2018; Ferrer - Rosell va cdng sU, 2015; Ferrer - Rosell va cdng sif, 2016; Ferrer - Rosell Coenders, 2017) Nhdm muc dich nghien cu'u chi tie't cdc khoan muc chi tieu, nghien ciiu ban che' tren cac khach noi dia di theo hinh thu'c tu sdp xep chiem khoang 78,4% sd khach ndi dia dU^c didu tra Hinh thUc di du lich tif sap xep cd nhieu ifu diem so vdi hinh thiic di tiieo tour Tuy nhien, so' lidu dieu tra du lich qua cac nam cho tha'y, ludng khach di theo tour dang cd xu hUdng lang boat ddng cua cac cdng ty Iff hdnh dUdc cai thien ve chat lUdng va gid ca Xu hUdng khach dl theo tour ciing thuan ldi hdn cho sU lien ke't giiia cdc nganh nghd va cd sd dd'n^hoat ddng du lich Ung dung CODA didu tra chi tidu cua khach du lich ndi dia Dd'i vdi tiing khach du lich, vec td ty trpng chi tieu binh qudn ngay/khach cho tffng khoan muc, tdc la S = (la mot phan cua sieu phang Diia vao cdc nghien cffu tnfdc (lich (Ferrer - Rosell va Coenders, 2018; Ferrer - Rosell vd cdng sU, 2015; Ferrer - Rosell va cdng sii, 2016; Ferrer-Rosell Coenders, 2017), phdn td ddy nhi nguydn dffdc minh boa Bang Trong dd, phan to va thd hien xu hffdng chi tieu khodn muc Hnh ddng va khoan muc cd ban (ttfc la An O theo vdn hda cua ngffdi Viet Nam) Cdc phdn td tiep theo phdn chia nhd tffng khoan muc d tren Ung vdi vi du phan td day nhi nguyen (SBP) d Bang 2, phep bidn ddi ILR tffdng ffng, gdm bleu thffc la: ry {S~J~^, ILR^ = ^In -f^; ILR^ = \^ln ^ ^""^ Md hinh hdi quy da hdp (compositional regression models) xem xet cac nhan td tdc ddng de'n cd cd'u chi tieu, gdm md hinh hdi quy mye'n tinh tffdng iJng vdi bie'n ddi ILR va cdc bie'n ddc lap cdc md hinh la gid'ng Cu the: ILR, = a , + i ^ , X , + e,, (1) ILRl = a]^E/l,K'^^,, Trong dd, X bao gdm: Cdc dac diem nhan khau hpc cua khach du lich (nhdm tudi, gidi tinh, nghd nghiep); Muc dich chuyd'n di; Phffdng tien di chuyen; So lan tham quan; Ngudn thdng tin tham khao; Mffc dd an tffdng vd hai long chuye'n di Cac tac gia Muller va cdng sff (2016), Dumuid vd cdng sff (2018) da chffng minh rang, sU lUa chon ddy phan td nhi BAMG 3: DAC DIEM CHGNG CGA KHACH DG LICH MOI DIA THEO HINH THCTC T^ TGC Dacdi^m Gifitri D^c di^m So d lai binh quan Tong so 17.218 lu'dt khach (ngay) quan sat Chi tidu binh quan 1.241,4 I idiach Nha doanh nghiep (987,3) (nghin dSng) Tu-15 de'n 24 ludi Tii 25 den 34 tuoi Nh6mtu5i{%) TCr 35 den 44 tuoi Til 45 den 54 tuoi Tren 54 tuoi NO Gidi dnh (%) Nam Hpinghi, hoi thao Tham ho hang, ban be Du lich nghi ngdi, Muc dich ciia tham quan, vui chOi chuydn di (%) giii tri Thu'dng mai Muc dich khac Khong cd Tre em dif3i tu^i (%) Co Nguon thong tin tham khao de quyet dmh chuyen dl (%) Ban be, ngu'di than Internet 2,7 ( 2,2 ) 15,4 8,6 Cong chi?c, vien chu'c nha nu'dc Nghe nghiep (%) 32,6 Cong nhan 32,8 HUU tri 16,9 Nong dSn va nghe nghiep khac 9,1 Lan Lan thiJ may den tinh/ 39,0 Lan ihanh (%) 61,0 Tir lan trd ten 13,5 Mdy bay 10,8 to Phu'Ong tien chinh chuyen di 56.9 T.„«, 36,6 11,2 6,6 30,2 32,9 32,5 34,6 i4,6 65,1 7,2 11,7 Hai Icng vcB chuyeti di (%) 87,1 So lu'dng nguon tham 12,9 kiiao thong tm de quyet dinh chuyen di 51,4 12,6 5,0 95,0 PhUdng tien khac Khong Cd 1,2(0,5) Phong canh dep Dac di^m in tifdng Thai ciia ngu'di dSn ncfi de'n cac diem tham quan, du du lich lich (%) Chat lUdng phuc vii tai cac 1.6(1) diem tham quan 11,7 Solu^dngdacdiem CO an tifdng tot Ghi chii Bdi vdi cdc bien lien tuc, thd'ng ke gom g rac gid tn lUOng iing td ty le phdn tram 7,7 57,4 24,4 34,3 trung binh vd lech chuan (irong ngoac) Do'i vdi cdc bie'n rdi Nguon Tmh loan tu =16 iieu thong ke la 1.241 nghin ddng Tmng binhl Iffpt khdch d lai dia diem du lich la 2,7 Nhdm tudi du lich chu yd'u la tff 25 de'n 34 tuoi vd 35 de'n 44 tudi vd hai nhdm tudi cd ty Id tffdng ddi bang Khdch du lich chu ye'u la nam gidi vd ty Id nam gidi gan gd'p ddi nff gidi Nhdm nghe nghiep cdng nhdn vidn chffc chie'm 36,6% vd nhieu nhd't cdc nganh nghe Xu hffdng ndy diing vdi phong trao du lich cdng doan cdc cO quan dffng td chffc hang nam vdo dip he (thang 7) Trong cdc muc dich du lich, muc dich nghi ngdi, tham quan va vui chdi giai tri chiem nhieu nha't Ty Id ngffdi du lich cd tre em dffdi tudi chid'm ty le nhd (12,9%), nen nhdm tac gia gia thie't ty le tre em khdng dnh hffdng dd'n kd't qua nghien cffu Trffdc chuye'n di du lich, khdch du lich se tham khao tren ngudn thdng tin (dUa tren ngudn thdng tm: ban KET QUA NGHIEN CU'U be, ngUdi than; sdch, bdo, tap chi; internet; cdng ty du Dac diem cd ban cua khach du lich lich; tivi; dUdc mdi) Trong do, ngudn tham khao phd bien nhd't la tU ban be vd ngffdi than Hau he't khach du ndi dia di theo hinh thii'c tif tuc ' Bdn2 the hien ddc diem chung ciia Iich (95%) hai Idng vdi chuyd'n di khdch du lich ndi dia theo hinh thffc tU Tuy nhidn, dac diem d'n tffdng tai diem tham tuc Co 17.218 khdch noi dia nghien quan (phong canh dep; thdi dp cua ngffdi ddn ndi de'n cffu Chi tieu binh qudn khach du lich, chd't Iffdng phuc vu cua cdc co sd luu tru, chd't nguyen (SBP), Hen quan de'n cdng thffc chuydn ddi ILR, la bd't bien vdi ke't qua hdi quy tuye'n tinh Cu the, tham sd' tff (a) vd cdc kiem dinh mu'c dp phii hdp ciia md hinh (quality of fit) khdng phu thudc vao viec Iffa chpn ILR dp dung phffdng phap phan tich giai^ thich true tiep cdc he sd cua md hinh hdi quy Cdc tinh toan nghien ciiXi dUdc tien hanh tren phan mdm Rsmdio, phien ban 3.6.1 Nghien ctiu sff cac dung gdi dii lieu compositions, robCompositions, ggplot2 va tidyverse phan mem Rstudo 29 BANG 4; HE SO HOI QUY CQA MO HltiH DA H0P (1) TddNG dNG Vfll BIEN ILR H^so D9 l^ch H$so DO l^ch chu^n cua hSi chuS'n ciia hg h6i chu^n cua h$ hgi sS* hoi quy quy h^s6^hSiquy quy s(^h6iqi^ quy -0.43 *"=* -0.03 -1,53*** -0,18 -1,16'*" 0,09 He so' it/ Muc dich chuyen di (mac dinh Hoi ngh), hoi thao] Tham hp hang, ban 66 0.27 ** 0.05 0,41 *** -0.1 0.05 *** -0.02 Duhch nghi ngdi, tham t|uan vui chdi giai tri 0,24 *** 0,04 0,44 *** -0,07 0,17*** -0,01 0,08 0,05 -0,03 -0.1 0.08 *** 0,02 0,19*** 0,05 0,2* -0,09 0.05 *** 0,01 Lan -0,02 0,03 0,03 -0,06 0.01 L;1n thi?3 trd len -0,07 * 0,03 -0,1 , -0,06 0,01 0.15*** 0,04 0,21 ** -0,07 0.03 ** 0,01 0,05* 0,03 Thu'dng mat Cac muc dich khac Lan thd may den iinh (mac dinh: U n 1) Tham khao ihong iin tir dau ? Internet Ban be, ngifSi thSn to Phu'dng tien chinh uong chuyen dl (Mac dinh' May bay) Phu'dng tien khac Tau hoa An tu'