Cac nhan to anh hifofng den kha nang tao viec lam cua cac doanh nghiep tai cac tmh vung Tay Bac NGO THI THANH TCI* Tom tat Bai vii't nghien cffu cdc nhdn tddnh hudng de'n khd ndng tgo viic ldm cua cdc doanh nghiep tgi cdc tinh vung Tdy Bdc Ki't qud nghien cffu cho thdy, tdng trudng cua gid tri gia ldng vd vdn ddu tu ludn la ddng lffc vd la kenh quan trgng tgo cdc vi tri viic ldm cho ngUdi lao ddng ddi vdi khu vffc doanh nghiep d cdc dnh vung Tdy Bdc Ben cgnh do, nhdn id tien luang dnh hudng den cdu lao dgng theo dung quy lugt ihi trudng la tdng luang thi nhu cau lao dong giam Ngodi ra, nghien cffu cung chi co sff dnh hudng nguac chieu cua viec doanh nghiep nam khu cong nghiep hodc khu che xual cd nhu cdu viec ldm khdc so vdi nhffng doanh nghiip khdng ndm khu cong nghiep hodc khu che xud't Tff khoa: viec ldm, lao ddng doanh nghiep tgo viec ldm vdng Tdy Bdc Summary This paper examines factors affecting the employabiUty of enterprises In the Northwestern provinces The results Indicate that the growth of value added and investment capital is always a driving force and an important channel to create jobs for employees in the aforementioned enterprises Besides, the wage factor impacts labor demand in accordance with market rule "the higher salary, the less demand for labor" In addition, there is a difference in employment need of enterprises inside industrial zones or export processing zones and those outside the industrial parks or export processing zones Keywords: employment, labor, enterprises, job creation, the Northwest region GIOI THIEU Tay Bac la mdt viing cd dilu kidn tff nhidn khd khan, khac nghidt va nguy cd sif co' moi trffdng cao, nhffng day Iai la mot nhffng vdng cd dia ehinh tri quan cua da't nffdc Vdi dien tich bang 1/3 ciia ca nffdc va dan so' tren 10 tridu ngffdi gom nhieu dan tdc khac nhau, ddy cung la Vdng ed ty le tham gia Iffc Iffdng lao dgng d mffc cao so vdi cdc viJng khdc Trong thdi gian gan day, chat Iffdng nguon lao dgng ciia viing Tay Bac dang dan dffde nang cao, so' Iffdng vi?c ldm dffdc tao dang cd xu hffdng tdng, vdi mffc thu nhap cdng dffdc cai thien Tuy nhidn, cha't Iffdng viec lam cua viing Tay Bac cdn nhieu han ehe', nhff: ty trgng lao ddng Idm cdng hffdng lifdngcdxuhffdngtang, nhffng thi trffdng iao ddng cdn khd lac hau; ty le lao ddng c6 vide lam phi chinh thffc cdn cao Do do, bdi vid't nghien cffu cdc nhdn td'anh hffdng de'n kha nang tao vide Iam ciia cdc doanh nghidp tai cac tinh vilng Tay Bac, tff do, de xua't cdc khuyen nghi ve chinh sdch thdi gian tdi COSCfLY THUYET VA MO H I N H NGHIEN CL/U Cd sof ly thuyet Krauss (2015) nghien cifu ve tao vide Idm va tieu huy vide lam tai khu vffc Ddng A - Thdi Binh Dffdng cho thd'y, cdc doanh nghidp cd quy md nhd (sd' Iffdng lao ddng it), thi tao vide lam nhieu hdn nhffng doanh nghiep cd quy md ldn Tffdng tff, nghien cffu ciia Agiomirgianakis va cgng sff (2006) ve cae nhan td' tac ddng de'n tang trffdng vide Idm va kha nang sinh loi cac doanh nghiep san xua't tai Hy Lap eung eho thd'y, sd'Iffdng lao ddng doanh nghidp ciing cd anh hffdng tidu cffc dd'n tdng trffdng vide Iam cua doanh nghidp Tuy nhien, Vlachvei va Notta (2008) nghien cffu ve cac nhan to' tae dgng de'n sff tang trffdng ciia cac cdng ty tai Hy Lap lai cho tha'y quy md doanh nghidp *ThS., Trudng Dgi hgc Hung Vifdng Vgdy nhdn bdt: 02/6/2020; Ngdy phdn hien; 20/6/2020; Ngdy duyel ddng; 25/6/2020 ^onomy and Forecasi Review 205 BAMG 1: T O m T A T C A C BiEM TROMG MO HIMH NGHIEM CffO •.TS" Tentneb LnVA Kv voneinhhicfhie + Lnaverlabor Lncapilal + Pci + + + CO k h u c n CO x k size rSriuon N g h i e n CLTU i:ua l o r gi^i (j=0,10) Nhff vay, cde tham so a se phan dnh md'i quan hd giffa cac bid'n dgc l§p, nhff: tang trffdng gid tri gia tang, vd'n, tidn Iffdng binh qudn vdi bie'n phu tbugc Id sd' lao dgng uong doanh nghiep i, Mffc anh hffdng ciia mot bie'n dgc lap (X) nao dd dd'n bien phu thuge LnL dffdc xdc dinh la dao ham ridng cua (*) theo bid'n X, nhff sau: dLnL _ o CO tac ddng tich cffc va ddng ke dd'n ty Id tang trffdng Nhff vdy, he sd' cua bie'n ddc lap (P) lao ddng doanh nghidp Ben canh dd, mdt so' nghien cffu ciia Glancey phan dnh xu hffdng va mffc dd anh hffdng (1998), Davidsson vd cgng sff (2002) ehffng minh rang, ciia bid'n doe lap dd'n bid'n phu thudc, cu tud'i cd md'i lidn he nghich bid'n giffa tud'i ciia doanh the la anh hffdng cua bid'n tang trffdng nghidp va tang trffdng lao ddng, eu the la: edc doanh VA, vd'n, tien Iffdng dd'n kha ndng tao nghidp hoat dgng lau nam se tang trffdng lao dgng viec lam doanh nghidp nhff the' ndo ehdm hdn cac doanh nghidp mdi ldp Vdi cde bie'n dffOc xdc dinh nhff tren, Tang trffdng lao ddng dffdc ky vgng se giam dan thi ky vgng anh hffdng eua cdc bie'n dd'n theo tudi eua doanh nghiep, Oliviera, Fortunato (2006) cau Iao ddng nhff Bang I Phffdng phap nghien cffu da ho trd eho quan did'm ndy vdi each giai thich, cac Nghidn cffu sff dung bg dff lieu kd't qud doanh nghiep Idn tuoi da cd mgt vi tri an toan trdn thi trffdng, md ho canh tranh va dd trai qua quy md hidu dieu tra doanh nghidp giai doan 20112016 eua Tong cue Thd'ng ke Day la cudc qua td'iffutheo san Iffdng Krauss (2015) cdn chira rdng, cd md'i lien he nghich khao sat Tong cue Thd'ng kd thffc hien bid'n giffa tien Iffdng vd tdng trffdng lao ddng mgt ndm lan, dieu tra cdc doanh nghiep doanh nghiep, Dong thdi, doanh nghiep cd tham dang boat ddng trdn dia ban ca nffdc Tuy gia boat ddng xud't khd'u hang hod, thi doanh nghidp se nhidn, bdi vid't chi nghidn cffu pham san xua't nhieu hdn de' tham gia vdo qud trinh san xuat vi 12 tinh tbugc vilng Tay Bac Cdc chi so' Nghidn effu eiia Masso vd cgng 51/(2005) cho thd'y, cd the diing de ffdc lffdng, phan tich tac ndng sud't cua ngffdi lao ddng dong bie'n vdi tang trffdng ddng nghidn cffu tff bg sd' hdu dieu lao ddng doanh nghidp Dieu cd nghia la tra doanh nghiep gom: so' Iffdng viec lam nang sud't Iao ddng tang, doanh nghidp cd xu hffdng ehung, sd' lu'dng vide lam theo nganh, so' tuyen thdm lao dgng san pham bidn vd gid tri san Iffdng vide lam ITnh vffc san xud't, vide Idm khu vffc phi ndng nghiep, phd'm bien tang tien Iffdng binh quan chung, tien Iffdng Cdn nghidn cffu cua Acquisti vd Lehman (2000) cho binh quan theo nganh, loai hinh doanh tha'y, cac doanh nghidp tff nhan tao viec lam vffdt trdi nghidp So' lidu dieu tra dffdc phdn to va so vdi cdc doanh nghiep nhd nffdc ciing quy md, xffly trdn mdy tinh bdng Excel, Stata (Bdi Md hinh nghidn cihi vie't sff diAng cdch vie't so thap phdn theo Trdn cd sd lffde khao cac cdng tnnh nghien cffu chudn qudc te) trffdc day, md hinh nghien cffu cd dang nhff sau: Y^^ = F (quy md eua doanh nghiep, tud'i ciia doanh nghiep, thu nhdp eiia ngffdi lao ddng, ndng sud't eiia ngffdi lao KET QUA NGHIEN CL/U dgng, mffc thdm dung vd'n cd tham gia hoat ddng xua't khd'u, hinh thffc sd hiJu vd'n, vi tri dia ly) Kd't quaffdcIffdng md hinh bdng phffdng Tff dd, md hinh dinh Iffdng dd' ffdc iffdng cau kha phdp hoi quy cd trgng so' WLS (Weighted Least Squares - WLS), khdc phuc phffdng nang tao vide lam, nhff sau: LnL^ = A(, + /^,LnVA^ + P^Lncapilal^ + ^/.navertabor sai sai so' thay doi mo hinh OLS, md hinh cd y nghia tho'ng kd Md ta thdng kd + J3j}ci^ + Pfo_khcn^ + P^co_xk^ + ej*) Trong dd: i la chi sd' thd' hien doanh nghidp thff i; cd ban ddi vdi cac bien nhff Bang LnVA la tang trffdng gia tri gia tang; Lncapital la tang Phan tich md hinh hdi quy, xdt chi trffdng vd'n; Lnaverlabor la tang trffdng tien Iffdng; tieu R-Squared day chinh mffc giai Pel la ehi so' nang life canh tranh cd'p tinh: co_khen !a bid'n phu thudc dffOc giai thich bdi cdc doanh nghidp cd dat khu cdng nghiep: co_xk la bid'n ddc lap la HiS^/r Ket qua ifdc Iffdng doanh nghiep cd xua't kha'u: e la phan dff Bang cho dia'y hau bet cdc he so' ffdc Cac tham sd'p (j=0.10) dffdc xdc dinh bdng each tfdc lugng dffdc deu khdc d mffc a = 59c Iffdng md hinh tren theo phffdng phdp blnh phifdng nhd difu Clia cac hd sd ffdc lUdng difdc phii nha't (OLS) ket qua ifdc Iffdng se thu dffdc cdc gia tri P^ hdp vdi ly diuye't kmh td' 206 Sau dd, tdc gia da thffc hidn mdt so' kilm dinh ve da cdng tuyd'n, dang ham va phffdng sai sai sd' thay doi Theo do, so sanh gia tri VIF vdi 10, thi thd'y cac bi^n dffa vao md hinh deu cd gid tri < 10, do, md hinh khdng cd hidn tffdng da cgng tuyd'n Cde kiem dinh dang ham vd phffdng sai sai sd'thay doi deu cd P-value < 5%, tffc la cdc bie'n khdng dong thdi bang khdng va md hinh khdng cd hidn tifdng phffdng sai phan dff thay ddi Tff kd't qua nghien effu trdn cho thd'y: (i) Tdng trffdng cua gia trj gia tdng va von dau tff ludn la dgng Iffc va la kenh quan trgng tao cac vi tri vide lam cho ngffdi lao dgng dd'i vdi khu vffc doanh nghiep d cdc tinh vung Tay Bae He sd' cua tang trffdng vd vd'n dau tff mang da'u dffdng (-I-) eho bid't, tang trffdng tao ddng life thiic d^y nhu cau ve san pham tang, dau tff md rdng san xua't se thiic da'y nhu clu lao ddng cae doanh nghidp, Cu the', ne'u tang trffdng tang thdm 1%, cdc nhdn to' khdc md hinh khdng ddi, thi kha ndng tao viec lam cua khu vffc doanh nghidp tang 0.03% He so co gian nhu cau Iao ddng theo vd'n dau tff cao hdn so vdi he sd'co gian ciia nhu cau lao dgng theo tang trffdng, cff 1% tang thdm ciia vd'n dau tff, edc nhdn to khde khdng ddi, thi vide Idm tang them 0.07% Nhff vdy, nd'u doanh nghiep md rdng dau tff san xud't, thi nhu cau ve lao ddng se tang cao hdn so vdi doanh nghidp ed sff gia tdng ve gid tri gia tang Khi xem xet tdc ddng theo loai hinh doanh nghidp cho thd'y, ed sff khac biet ro net ve tdc ddng eiia tang trffdng tdi nhu cau lao dgng d khu vffc doanh nghidp ngodi nha nffdc Tang trffdng gid tri gia tang se keo theo tang nhu cau Iao ddng dkhu vffe ngoai nha nffdc (he so'0.003) Dau tff md rdng san xua't giup tang eau lao ddng d td't ca cac khu vffc, nhffng tdng manh nhd't d khu vffe FDI, tie'p dd Id khu vffc nha nffdc va khu vffc ngodi nha nffdc chi cd sff gia tang rat yd'u (ii) Nhdn to' tien Iffdng md hinh anh hffdng de'n c^u Iao ddng theo diing quy ludt thi trffdng, tang Iffdng thi nhu cau lao dgng giam, tien Iffdng tang 1%, cau Iao ddng giam 0.22%, ket qua phu hdp vdi rai nhieu nghidn cu\i trffdc dd Ben canh 36, ti^n Iffdng tdc dgng ldm giam cau lao dgng d khu vffc ngoai nha nffdc va FDl (he so lan lffdt la -0.24 vd -0.56), nhu^g tac ddng khd yd'u tdi vide giam lao dgng khu vffc nhd nffdc (he sd' -0.018) Economy and Fon-ciisi Revi BANG mo TA THONG KE Cd BAN DOI V6l CAC BIEN Tmng MdtB binh chu^n LnL 2.371 258Tang tru'dng lao dong Irong doanh nohiep LnVA 6.379 2,337 Tang tnfdng gia tri gia tang doanh nghiep Lnaverlabor 3.516 0,952 Tang trirdng nen lifcfng doanh nghiep Lncapital 58 1975 Tang tnfdng von dau tiT pci 56.152 4,078 Chi so nang lUc canh tranh cap tinh co_khucn 1,955 208 neu doanh nghiep khu cong nghiep CO xk 1.951 0,216 neu doanh nghiep cd Iham gia hoat dong xuai khau size 1.498 0.648 Quy md doanh nghiep T€n bi^n : KET QQA CTCiC Ld0NG AMH HtfCiMG CtJA MQT SO f Tdi GAG LAO DpNG THEO HIMH THCfC s6 HdU Chune NhaniAlC Neo&i nhk ntfdc Bigh LnL LnL LnL 0,123*** 0,0856*** 0,130*** LnVA -0-00248 -0,00562 -0.00275 -0.0811*** -0.0391*** -0.0888*** Lnaverlabor -0.00538 -0.0116 -0,00632 0-0723*** 0.0654*** 0.116*** Lncapital -0.00264 -0,00664 -0.00288 0,00508*** 0,00477*** 0.0149*** PC, -0.00113 -0.00298 -0,00123 -0,106*** -0.0530* 0,0108 co_khucn -0 0263 -0,0317 -0,0799 -0.0746*** 0.00417 -0 289*** co_xk -0,0191 -0,0669 -0 0212 1,197*** 073*** 207*** si„ -0 00768 -00178 -0 0086 -0 210** -0.549** -0,443*** Hang sd -0.0907 -0,253 -0-106 15,944 Quan sat 19.115 2.925 R-squared 788 0.832 0-771 Sai sd'chuan ***p