Chuyen muc: Khoa hoc xa hoi va hanh v Sir DONG GOP CilA CAC CHI SO VAO HDI CUA VUNG TRUNG DU VA MIEN NUI BAC BQ: VAN DE VA GOI MO Trin Van Nguyen', TrSn Van Dung' Tomtit Chl sd phdt diin ngudi (HDI) Id mot chi sd Ihdng lei ludng thdnh tuu cua mot qudc gia hay mat vung idnh thd vi ba chi tieu Id tudi tha gido due, vd thu nhap binh qudn ddu ngudi Bdi viet dmh hay tdng quan vi cdc cdch xdc dmh vd tinh todn cdc chi s6 chi sd phdt tnen ngu&i aia vung Tmng du vd miin mil Bdc Bd phii hap vdi bo dif heu sdn cd Bdng thdi nghien cuu tdp ming so sdnh va danh gid muc ddng gdp ciia cdc thdnh phdn vdo suphdt triin ngudi cua viing bao gdm chi sd sue khoe chi sd gido due vd chi sd thu nhap Kit qud nghiin cim cho thdy nhin chung HDI ciia viing cd budc din rd ret, nhien muc ddng gdp cua thu nhap vd gido due vdo HDI rdt thap htm so vdi mire binh qudn cd Nudc Bdi viit dua mot s6 khuyin nghi cho vimg Trung du vd mien niii Bdc Bo viec ndng cao chi s6 phdt triin ngudi thdng qua Idp trung ndng cao trinh hoc vdn d bgc trung hoc phd thdng trd len vd mice sdng ddn cu nhiing nam tiep theo Tir khoa, Chi sd phdt triin ngudi chi si gido due, chi so' sice khoi, cM sd mire sdng ddn cu, vimg Trung du vd mien niu Bdc Bo CONTRIBUTION OF DETERMINANTS OF HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INDEX IN NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND MOUNTAINOUSREGION: ISSUES AND RECOMIMENDATIONS Abstract The Human Development Index (HDI) is a stadstical tool used to measure the achievement of a country or a territory on three dimensions namely life expectancy, educanon and per cgpitg income indicators This paper presents an overview of how to calculate and measure the human development index of the Northern Midlands and Mountainous Region in accordance with the available data Simultaneously, the study focuses on comparing and assessing the conlribution of the dimensions of the human development index including indicators on health, education and income The results indicate that this region has witnessed gradual growth in human development, whereas the contribudon of income index and editcadon index lo HDI is shll lower compared to the national average Hence, the research provides some reeommendglions for the Northern Midlgnds gnd Mountgins region in raising the human development index by improving the number of students attained upper secondary school level and above and living standards for people in the commgyears Keywords: Human development index Education index, Life expectancy index, GNl index, Norihem Midlands and Mountainous region JEL classificanon: O; 015 RI 1, Dat van de ciing duoc coi la chi so phan anh chat luong cuoc De lucmg tuu phat trien kinh te cua song cua cong dong Dong tlioi, chi so phat trign mot quoc gia hay mot viing, chi so phat trien con nguoi (HDI) duoc coi la muc ticu cu6i ciing nguoi (Human Development hidex - HDI) duoc cua phat tn6n Do do, viec xem xet su dong gop tuili toan va xuat ban dau tien boi chuong trinh ciia cac chi so vao HDI la rjt quan de hoach phat tnen Lien hiep qu6c (UNDP) va Sen iiaiu dinh kS hoach phat trien hieu qua nhat Tuy nhien, 1990 [13] va [4] Theo nguon nhan luc duoc hien naj viec tinh toan cac phan va HDI cua coi la tai san quy gia nhat ciia bat k>- quoc nao va viing Trung du va mien mii Bic bo van chua duoc dugc de xuat lam ttiuoc su phat men kmh te va tinh toan, dong thai kSt qua v5n nhieu tranh luan hay nhimg nhan t6 nao cin duoc quan tam su thinh virgng cua mgt quoc gia Hien chi so phat tnen nguoi hay chi so nguon phat tnen nham nang cao chi s6 phat tnen nguoi cua nguon nhan luc (Human Development hidex) tro mot viing Ngoai mot s6 cac nghien ciru van thuoc neu chuan va bien nhat phan dmig tinh toan chi s6 phat tn6n nguoi dua tren ^VlfM ' ^ ? ' " " ' ri^'"^''"' " ; ? ™"^ lanh tho ]3| HDI duoc coi la chi so toan dien nhat no bao quat ba ITiA vvrc bao gom Hoc van (giao due), tao tho (y te) va GDP (kinh te), dgng thoi ' " ' " ' " " " S P''*? *>«"= i^ xuit boi Chuong trinh phat tnSn Lien hgp qu6c (UNDP) va T&m cue TliSiig ke (2002) [9], nhien cong cu tren chii yen duoc van dung de tinh toan cac chi sii o pham Chuyen n ; Khoa hgc xa hoi va hanh vi - TAP CHI KINI-I TE & QUAN TRI KINH DOANH SO 12 (2020) vi mdt quoc gia Cd the ke den, nghien ciru cua Nguyen Thi Mai Hucmg ya Nguyen Thj Bich Diep (2017) [2] tiinh bay ve mot sd van de HDI ciia Viet Nam sil dung nguon dir' lieu tinh toan sSn co ciia UNDP, chi rang cac chi sd ph&i HDI van ddng khdng deu qua cac nam va cd chieu hudng chirng lai, Ngoai ra, nghien cuu ve mdi quan he giiia chi sd phat trien ngudi va cac van de xa hdi dua nhan dinh rang moi quan he la chia khoa tlien chdt thuc day qua trinh phat trien kinh te xa hdi tren cd sd s6 heu ciia UNDP [6], Trong dd, vice tinh toan dua tren sd lieu san cd gap nhieu bat cap dac biet viec tinh toan chi sd giao due cho cac vimg kinh t6 Vimg Trung du va mien niii BSc Bd {TDMNBB) nhung nam qua cd nhfmg budc phat trien manh me va dat dugc nhirng tuu dang ke, Cimg vdi miic tang trudng kinh te vimg dat tren 12%/nam, viing TDMNBB da thoat khdi nhom CO thu nhap thap [3] Tuy nhien, tbeo nghiSn cim ciia Hoang Ba Thinh va Doan Thi Thanh Huyen (2018) [7] ca nudc cd 10 tinh cd ty le ngheo cao nhat thi cd den tinh thudc vimg TDMNBB Hon niia, ty Ie di hpc cap phd thdng tmng hpc mdi chi dat khoang 38% nam 2018 hong ty le ciia ca nudc la 41.4%, Do dd, mire dp dong gop cua cac chi sd ve giao due va thu nhap den HDI can phai dugc xem xet de xay dung nhung chinh sach phit hgp nham gdp phan nang cao trinh dp phat trien kinh te va xa hdi cua viing TDMNBB ndi rieng va cua ca Nudc ndi chung, Tuy nhien, hien tai cac cdng trinh nghien cuu ve miic ddng gdp cua giao due va kinh te vao HDI d vimg TDMNBB cdn han che Xuat phat tu thuc te tren, nghien ciru nham phan tich va udc lugng mire dp ddng gdp cua timg nhan to vao HDI ciia vimg Trung du va mien mii Bac bo (TDMNBB)' va so sanh vdi ca Nudc Han nira, nghien cim tong hap sir phat trien ciia cac chi so ctia Vimg nghien ciai theo cac nam ddng thdi dira cac khuyen nghi nham nang cao HDI cua vimg nhiing nam tifip theo, Phirong phap xac dinh HDI va nguon du' liSu 2.1 Phuang phdp xdc dinh cdcchisd Phirang thicc tinh toan cac chi sd HDI dirge sir dung nghien ciiu dugc de xuat dua tren du lieu sin cd ciia Viet Nam, Cac chi so dugc xac dinh theo timg chi sd nhu sau: Viiiig trung du mien niu phia Bac ve mat hanh chinh bao gom 14tinh.Ha Giang, Cao BSng, Lao Cai, Bac Kan, Lang Son, Tuyen Quang, Yen Bai, Thai Nguyen, Phii Tho, Bk Giang, Lai Chau, Dien Bien, Son La va Hoa Binh Chi sd gido due Day dugc cai la nhan tdt then chpt bdi le giao due vira la muc tieu dong tiidi cung la ddng luc ciia qua trinh phat tnen laen vung, Nang caa trinh dp giao due se gdp phan tao nguon von ngudi, vdn to chuc, von xa hdi ciia cdng dong Cd rat nhieu cac phuang thiic tinh toan chi so giao due khac va phu thudc vao nguon du heu va each tinh toan Nghien cuu, van dung each thiic tinh toan chi so giao dueti-ongHDI tii' vien khoa hoc thdng ke Viet Nam thdng qua ty le ngudi ldn biet chii va ty- le di hpc cac cap giao due (xem chi tiet tai [9]) Can luu y rSng, bd dir lieu sSn cd chua de cap den ty le di hpc cua lao ddng tir din 24 hioi d bac dai hge va cao dang, Ngoai ra, dC' lieu hien tai chi bao gdm sd lugng hpc sinh hoc cac cap tieu hoc, tmng hpc ca sd va tmng hgc phd thdng theo cac viing va ca Nudc Do dd, de tinh toan chi tieu ve ty le di hoc cac cap, nghien ciiu COI t>' le di hoc tieu bgc la 100% (theo quy dinli ve giao due Viet Nam la phd cap cap tieu hoc) Han nua, de tinh toan ty le di hoc tmng hoc ca sd, nghien ciiu gia dinh rang ty le di hpc tieu boc (nam thie n) dugc coi la tdng sd hgc sinh tnmg hpc CO sd (nam thie n +5) Tuong tu nhu tinh toan t\ le dl boc trung hoc phd thdng, ddng thdi trudng hap khdng cd nam ddi ung, nghien ciiu su dung dii lieu nam gdc sat nhat vdi nam ddi ling de tinh toan Sau tinh toan t\' le di hpc cac cap, nghien ciru su dung sd binh quan gian dan de tinh toan ty le di hgc chung, Cdng thiic tinh chi sd giao due UNDP quy dinh va theo Vien thdng ke Viet Nam nhu sau: / giio due = (Ty le biet chu' thm the) + -{tyle di hoc cac cap) Chi sd siic khoe Theo to chire phat tnen Lien hgp quoe, chi so siic khoe dirge dp ludng thdng qua tuoi tho binh quan tinh tir luc mdi sinh Han niia, chi so siic klioe dugc tinh toan su dung gia tn tudi thp nhd nhat la 20 nam kk hgp vdi gia tn tudi thg ldn nhat la 85 nam lam quyen so Do dd, phuang thuc xac dinh chi sd sue khoe nhu sau: Tuoi tho bmh quan th\xc te - 20 ' sire khoe ~ — 20 Chi so niiic song ddn cu Day la chi ticu ludng mire sdng dan cu theo gia til thi trudng, theo ly tliuyet thi tiiu nliap duac ludng thdng qua thu nhap binh quan dau ngudi mdt nam dugc rinh toan theo la my (USD) va theo mire gia sire mua tucmg ducmg (PPP) Trong dd, gia tn toi da cua thu nhap la Chuyen muc: Khoa hoc xa hoi va hanh vi - TAP CHI K117A TL J- ; 75000 USD/ngudi/nam va gia tri toi thieu cua thu nhap la 100 USD/ngudi/nam theo siic mua tucmg duong (PPP) Tuy nhien, han chg vk mat sd lieu, nghien ciiu van dung tinh toan chi sd dua vao thu nhap binh quan dau ngudi viing theo gia hien hanh va quy doi sang USD dua vao t>' gia mua vao va ban ciia Techcombank 22/9/2019, Phuang thirc tinh toan chi sd ve thu nhap nhu sau: _ Ln(thunhap thirc te) - Ln(lQO) m(:cs6ng - ^71(75000) -/,n(100) Chi so phdt trien ngudi (HDI) Sau tinh toan cac chi tieu, chi sd phat trien ngudi (HDI) la gia tn trung binh chi so dp (the geometric mean) nhu sau, HDI = (;„fc „-„, ;,4, ,;.„5 ;„fc , „ ) V 2.2 Nguon dif lieu su dung nghien ciru So lieu dugc sii' dung nghien ciiu dugc thu thap tir website ciia Tdng cue thong ke nam 2019 Ngliien cuu sii dung so lieu hang nam tir nam 2009 den nam 2018 tii Tong cu tiidng ke [10], |I1] va [12] Bao gdm, tudi tiip binh quan dau ngudi (nam), thu nhap binh quan dSu ngudi (USD/nam), ty le biet chu' (%), t>' le di hoc ca sd (%) va ty' le di hgc cap phd thdng (%) cua vimg TDMNBB va ca Nudc, Tuy nhien, dac diem bd dii lieu sSn cd chi sd ve thu nhap va HDI chi dugc tinh toan hai nam mpt tii nam 2010 Sau sd lieu dugc thu thap, nghien ciiu sii dung phuang phap tinh toan nhu da trinh bay d pban tren KSt qua nghien cihi va thao luSn 3.1 Kit qud tinh todn cdc chi sd HDI vdng TDMNBB Ket qua tinh toan chi so HDI cua vung Trung du va mien niii bac bd va chung ca Nudc dugc the hien qua bang 1, Ket qua chi rSng chi so phat trien cpn ngudi ciia viing thap han so vdi ca Nudc 0,06 diem nam (2018) Dieu la tat ca cac chi sd ve giao due, siic khoe va miic song deu thap han so vdi ca nudc HDI cua vung mdi chi dat nguong HDI trung binh (0,55 0,699), dd de nang cao chi so phat trien ngudi nhirng nam tdi vimg can tap trung nang cao miic song dan cu va ty Ic di hoc cac cap, Nhin chung, vimg TDMNBB da dat duac nhirng budc cdng dang ke su nghiep phat tiien ngudi, diem dang chu y la chi so HDI ciia vimg tang qua cac nam, Tuy nhien, ty le tang giiia cac nam cdn rat thap va khdng ddng deu tic 0,53 nam 2010 tang len 0.68 nam 2018 Xem xet cu the tirng ehi tieu HDI cua viing TDMNBB- Cd tha thay chi so ve siic khoe d^t 0.78 di6m nam 2018, day la miic thap so vdi miic binh quan ca Nudc Tuy nhien, ba chi so phan, chi sd ve siic khoe ddng gdp thie hai sau chi sd giao due Hon nua, chi sd siic khoe phan anh cac dieu kien ve y te cua -viing Ben canh do, nhiing han che ve dieu kien y te, trang thiet bi y te ha>' miic dd an toan thuc pham anh hudng den tde tang chi sd siic khoe Chi so mice song dan cu, tbu nhap binh quan dau ngudi ciia \'ung TDMNBB dat 1270 10 (USD/ngudi/nam) thap hon rat nhieu so vdi mire binh quan chung ca Nude Thuc te cung khdng khd ly giai, vi dieu kien kinh te ciia vimg TDMNBB thudc viing cd thu nhap thap nhat ca Nudc Nen kinh te ehii yeu phu thude va ndng nghiep va lao ddng ndng nghiep chiem hgn 67%, dieu dan dSn tde tang thu nhap ciia khu vuc rat cham va nam muc thap so vdi cac khu vuc khac Vl chi sd giao due, tj' le dan so biit chii cao (89,7% nam 2018) va ty le hgc sinh hgc cac cap tang nhanh nhiing nam gan day, chi sd ve giao due eua vung chiem ty eao nhdt HDI ciia viing Tuy nhien, can luu y r^ng phan ldn trgng sd ciia chi sd giao due hk nguontiity le biet chir, dd t>' ie ngudi di hpc cdp PTTH ciia vimg rat thap radi ehi dat khoang 38,12% nam 2018, Dieu rdt dang quan ngai, vi chat lugng nguon nhan luc chit lugng cao chu yeu tap tnmg d doi tuong tot nghiep PTTH trd len Do do, nhung nam riep theo can cd nhung ehinh sach day manh va ho trg hoc sinh di hgc d nhung cap hpc cao hon Day la dieu kien tien quyet giiip vimg TDMNBB hdi nhap va phat trien kinh te cdng Ctuyte ml)C! Khoa hoc xa hoi va hanh vi - TAP CHI KINH TE & QUAN TRI KINH DOANH SO 2009 Bdng 1: Kit qud tinh todr cdc chl niu HDI ciia vims TDMNBB Mirc song Sire khoe Giao due Thu nhap Tuoi Tyle Tyle binh quan tho Chi Chi Ty Ie biet di hoc di hoc Chi dau nguoi binh so so chu-'(%) co'sof PTTH s6 (USD/nam) quiin (%) (%) 70,00 0,77 N/A N/A 88,10 66,28 35,18 0,81 2010 70,00 0,77 468,20 0.23 88,30 65,75 35,54 0,81 0.53 2011 70,50 0,78 N/A N/A 89,30 67,66 34,81 0,82 N/A 2012 70,30 0,77 650,83 0,28 89,20 70,57 32,19 0,82 0,56 2013 70,40 0,78 N/A N/A 89,50 72,40 31,89 0,82 N/A 2014 70,70 0,78 834,49 0,32 89,00 74,31 32,48 0,82 0,59 2015 70,80 0,78 N/A N/A 89,90 73,29 34,74 0,83 N/A 2016 70,80 0,78 1015,56 0,35 90,00 67,20 36,29 0,83 0,61 2017 71,00 0,78 N/A N/A 89,90 75,52 37,71 0,84 N/A 2018 71,00 0,78 1270,10 Nam HDI N/A 0,38 89,70 38,12 0,83 74,29 0,63 Ngudn Tinh loan lir so lieu ciia Tong cue tiiong ke nam 2019 ciia chi so giao due va chi sd y te cd xu hudng Xem xet ky han xu the tang cac chi so hoi tu Xu hudng tang trudng cac phan phan ciia HDI, hinh trinh bay ve xu HDI ciia vimg TDMNBB cd cho thay ca diem hudng tang trudng cac chi sd cua viing manh va thach thiic Diem manh la vimg TDMNBB giai doan tii 2010 den nam 2018, Xet TDMNBB tiem can vdi kha nang tao len mdt tiong ca cau cac chi sd ciia HDI, tde dd cugc phat tnen ve ngudn nhan lire vdi toe dd cao tang tmdng cua chi so giao due va ehi sd y te cd ca ba ehi so hien tai deu ehua cao so vdi mirc xu hudng cham dan thi va cd xu hudng hdi tu, binh quan eua ca Nudc Thach thirc la vimg toe dp tang HDI chu yeu bat ngudn tir tde dp tang TDMNBB chua khai thac dugc triet de nhung co cua chi so ve miic sdng dan cu Day la dau hieu hpi phat tnen kinh te dia phuang nham tao cho thay sir tang trudng chua hgp ly va chua ben dot phat tang trudng thu nhap binh quan viing cua cae phan HDI Trong dau ngudi chi so HDI ciia viingjhap tbi miic ddng gdp _ 2010 2011 ^ C h i sd siic khoe 2012 2013 2014 ^ ^ C h i so thu nhap 2015 2016 2017 -^ i^Chi sd giao due 2018 2019 ^>^HDI Hinh I: Xu huang vd miic dong gop cdc thdnh phdn vdo HDI ciia viing TDMNBB hgn ve tinh hinh eung nhu thuc trang ve nguon 3.2 Xu hu&ng cdc thdnh phdn HDI cua nhan luc cua vimg nhirng nam qua Nhin viing TDMMBB so vdi ca Nu&c chung, cac ehi so ciia \amg TDMNBB deu thap Bang dudi day trinh bay mdt sd ket qua hon so vdi miic binh quan ehung ciia ca Nudc phan tich ve so sanh cac chi sd ve giao due, y te Cu tiie, HDI cua ca Nudc la 0,69 nam miic song dan cuu va phat trien eon ngudi cua 2018, chi so ciia viing TDNMBB ehi dat viing TDMNBB so vdi ca Nudc nhSm hieu rd Chuyen muc: Khoa hoc sa hoi va hanh vi - TAP CHI KIN; 0,63 diem, Xem xet ky hon ve cac phan, chi sd ve sire khoe va giao due tiem can gan vdi mirc binh quan chung cua ca Nudc, thi chl sd ve thu nhap co khoang each kha ldn giiia •vimg TDMNBB va miic trung binh cua ca Nude Chi sd ve miic sdng thap cd anh hudng rat ldn den ket qua ve chi sd phat tnen ngudn nhan lire, Nhu vay, qua phan tich d tren cho thdy rang tang trudng chi so HDI ciia vimg TDMNBB chii >'eu bat ngudn tir tang tnrdng mire sdng dan cu Han nua, phan ldn luc lugng lao dpng d hau bet Viing Nam Tmno du mien nui Bacbg 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 Ca Su-c khoe Tn6i tho Chi binh so quiin 0.77 70.00 70.30 0.77 70.70 0,78 70.80 0.78 0.78 71.00 0,81 72.90 0,82 73.00 0,82 73,20 0,82 73.40 0,82 73,50 cae tinh dgu thudc khu vuc ndng lam iigh'ep_™ thuv san (hgn 60% lao dgng Idiu vivc nong nghiep) va day dugc coi la khu ^vc co NSLD thap nhat so vai cac khu vuc khac [8] ^ o do, cdn day manh cong tac dao tao nham nang cao chat luang ngudn nhan luc dS vira dat dugc muc ticu nang cao chi so giao due ddng thai tao cii hich ldn tang tmdng mii'c sdng dan cu gdp pham dua chi sd HDI ciia vung TDMNBB tiem can vdi mirc binh quan chung cua cd Nudc thdi gian tdi Miic son