Reducing Air Pollution from Urban Transport doc

Reducing Air Pollution from Urban Transport Ken Gwilliam, Masami Kojima, and Todd Johnson THE WORLD BANK Copyright © 2004 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/THE WORLD BANK 1818 H Street, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20433, U.S.A. Telephone 202-473-1000 Internet www.worldbank.org All rights reserved Manufactured in the United States of America Published June 2004 The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Board of Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent. The World Bank cannot guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this publication and accepts no responsi- bility for any consequence of their use. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply on the part of the World Bank any judgment of the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Cover: Todd Johnson, 2004; Shanghai, China. iii Contents Acknowledgments ix Foreword xi List of Abbreviations, Acronyms, and Glossary xiii Preface xv Executive Summary xvii Background xvii A Framework for Decisionmaking xvii Policy Instruments for Reducing Transport Emissions and Reducing Human Exposure xviii Conclusions xxv 1. The Context of the Problem 1 The Air Quality Problem in Developing Countries 1 Transport as a Source of Pollution 1 Air Pollution Levels and Trends 2 Global Climate Change 3 Urban Transport Policy in Developing Countries 4 The Policy Stance 5 2. A Systematic Approach to Controlling Urban Air Pollution from Mobile Sources 7 A Framework for Analysis 7 Air Quality Monitoring and Standards 7 The Determinants of Transport Emissions 8 Assessing Air Pollution Mitigation Measures 11 Cost-Effectiveness Analysis 15 The Results of Analysis of Air Pollution Control 17 Appraising Instruments: A Structure for Policy Appraisal 20 3. Reducing Emissions per Unit of Fuel Consumed 23 Cleaner Fuels 23 Maintaining Fuel Standards 32 Alternative Fuels 34 Vehicle Technology 40 Vehicle Replacement Strategies 48 4. Reducing Fuel Consumption per Unit of Movement 53 Improving Fuel Efficiency through Vehicle Technology 53 Increasing Fuel Efficiency through Vehicle Operation 54 Encouraging Nonmotorized Transport 55 Regulation and Control of Public Road Passenger Transport 59 The Role of Mass Transit 63 5. Reducing Total Transport Demand 65 Land Use Policy 65 Road Pricing 67 Physical Restraint Policies 69 iv REDUCING AIR POLLUTION FROM URBAN TRANSPORT Parking Policies 69 The Special Problem of Motorcycles 70 6. Designing a Supportive Fiscal Framework 71 Direct Taxation on Emissions 71 Fuel Taxation 71 Taxation on Vehicles 74 Constructing a Road Transport Tax Package 74 Property Taxation and Fees 75 Public Expenditure Policies 75 7. The Supporting Institutional Framework 77 The Range of Institutions Involved in Urban Air Quality 77 The Role of Central Government 77 The Hierarchy of Government and Inter-Jurisdictional Collaboration 78 The Organization of Municipal Government 79 Involving the Private Sector 80 Nongovernmental Organizations and Civil Society 82 8. Synopsis: Constructing an Effective Package of Measures 85 Adopting a Positive Policy Stance 85 Direct Policy Tools 86 Indirect Policy Tools 88 Political and Technical Consistency 89 “Horses for Courses” 90 Conclusion 92 Annex 1. Conventional Fuel Technology 93 Gasoline Quality Improvement 93 Diesel Quality Improvement 95 Impact on the Refining Industry 99 Annex 2. Trends in Vehicular Emission Standards and Fuel Specifications in the United States 103 Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 103 Air Quality Improvement Research Program 106 Tier 1 and Tier 2 Emission Standards 107 Annex 3. Trends in Vehicular Emission Standards and Fuel Specifications in the European Union 113 European Auto-Oil Programme 113 Current and Future Standards 114 Annex 4. World-Wide Fuel Charter 119 Annex 5. Two- and Three-Wheelers 121 Relationships between Mass Emissions and Vehicle and Fuel/ Lubricant Technology 122 Emission Standards for Two- and Three-Wheel Vehicles 125 Controlling Emissions from Two- and Three-Wheelers 127 Annex 6. Alternative Fuels 129 Natural Gas 129 Liquefied Petroleum Gas 133 Electric/Hybrid 134 Biofuels 135 Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Technology 137 CONTENTS v Annex 7. Maintaining Vehicles: Inspection and Maintenance Programs 139 Data on Vehicle Population 139 Test Procedures 139 Administrative Control 144 Experience in Mexico City 148 Annex 8. Estimating the Health Impacts of Air Pollution 151 Selecting the Health Effects to Be Studied 151 How Are Health Effects Estimated? 151 Results from Existing Studies 154 Estimating Health Effects in Developing Countries 154 Conclusions 155 Annex 9. Valuing Health Effects 157 Valuing Reductions in Illness 157 Valuing Reductions in Premature Mortality 158 Valuing Health Benefits in Developing Countries 159 The Policy Relevance of Health-Benefits Analysis—Example from Mexico City 159 The Use of Benefit Estimates in Cost-Benefit Analyses 160 Conclusions 161 References 163 Tables 1 Contribution of Vehicle Exhaust to Ambient Particulate Concentrations 14 2 Estimated Cost of Air Quality Mitigation Measures 18 3 Bus Priority Measures in London 63 A1.1 Gasoline Fuel Parameters that Affect Air Quality 94 A1.2 Diesel Parameters that Affect Air Quality 96 A2.1 U.S. Industry Average Baseline Gasoline, 1990 104 A2.2 Simple Model, 1 January 1995–31 December 1997 104 A2.3 Complex Model, 1 January 1998–31 December 1999 105 A2.4 Federal Diesel Standards 105 A2.5 Tier 1 U.S. Federal Exhaust Emission Standards for Light-Duty Vehicles, Federal Test Procedure, Cold CO (g/km) 108 A2.6 U.S. Federal Heavy-Duty Exhaust Emission Standards Compression Ignition and Urban Buses (g/kWh) 108 A2.7 Tier 2 FTP Exhaust-Emission Standards for Light-Duty Vehicles, Light-Duty Trucks, and Medium-Duty Passenger Vehicles, Permanent (g/km) 110 A2.8 Phase-in Percentages for Tier 2 Emission Standards for Light- Duty Vehicles, Light-Duty Trucks, and Medium-Duty Passenger Vehicles 110 A2.9 Gasoline Sulfur Limits in the United States 110 A2.10 Heavy-Duty Gasoline Exhaust Emission Standards for 2004 and Later Model Year 111 A3.1 Automotive Gasoline Specifications in the EU 115 A3.2 On-Road Diesel Specifications in the EU 115 A3.3 EU Exhaust Emission Standards for Passenger Cars (g/km) 116 A3.4 EU Emission Standards for Light Commercial Vehicles (g/km) 116 A3.5 EU Emission Standards for Heavy-Duty Diesel Engines (g/kWh). 117 A3.6 Emission Standards for Diesel and Gas Engines, European Transient Cycle Test (g/kWh) 117 A4.1 World-Wide Fuel Charter Gasoline Specifications 120 vi REDUCING AIR POLLUTION FROM URBAN TRANSPORT A4.2 World-Wide Fuel Charter Diesel Specifications 120 A5.1 Independent Variables in Regression Analysis 123 A5.2 Log Particulate Emission Model Specification 124 A5.3 Log HC Emission Model Specification 124 A5.4 CO Emission Model Specification 124 A5.5 U.S. Emission Limits for Motorcycles over 50 cc Capacity 125 A5.6 Future U.S. Motorcycle Exhaust Emission Standards 125 A5.7 ECE Regulation 40/40.01 for Type Approval Exhaust Emission Limits for Four-Stroke Engine Motorcycles 126 A5.8 EU Motorcycle Emission Limits, 1999–2003 126 A5.9 Common Position on Motorcycle Emission Standards Adopted in July 2001 by the European Council (g/km) 126 A5.10 Type Approval Emission Standards for Gasoline- and Diesel- Powered Two- and Three-Wheelers in India (g/km) 127 A5.11 Emission Standards for New Production Motorcycle Models in Taiwan, China 127 A6.1 Emissions Benefits of Replacing Conventional Diesel with CNG . 131 A6.2 Comparison of CNG and “Clean-Diesel” Buses in New York (g/km) 131 A8.1 Human Health Effects of the Common Air Pollutants 152 A9.1 Annual Health Benefits due to Ozone and PM 10 Reductions in Mexico City (million 1999 US$) 160 Figures E.1 Factors Contributing to Transport Emissions xix 1 Sequence of Questions to Appraise Mitigation Options to Tackle Mobile Sources 7 2 Particulate Emissions as a Function of Vehicle Speed 10 3 U.S. Particulate Emission Standards for Urban Buses 19 4 Factors Contributing to Transport Emissions 21 A1.1 Particulate Emissions from New U.S. Heavy-Duty Diesels 95 A6.1 Payback for Conversion from Premium Gasoline to CNG in Argentina, 1999 Fuel Prices 132 A7.1 Correlation Between Visible Smoke and Mass Particulate Emissions 142 Boxes 1 Actual Levels versus Limits 24 2 Cost of Fuel Reformulation: Examples from Latin America and the Caribbean and from Asia 27 3 Diesel Certification in California 106 4 From Dual-Fuel Buses to Dedicated CNG: Lesson from Seattle, United States 130 5 Natural Gas Buses: Experience of Bus Fleet Operators 132 6 Estimating a Health Impact of Lowering PM 10 Concentrations 153 International Experience 1 Source Apportionment: Lessons from the United States 12 2 Diesel Sulfur Contribution to Emissions 26 3 Market-Based Approach to Tackling Abuses in Fuel Markets: “Pure for Sure” in India 35 4 Vehicle Replacement in Bogotá, Colombia, and Delhi, India 52 5 Bus Rapid Transit in Bogotá 60 6 Addressing the Environmental Impacts of Bus Competition in Santiago, Chile 61 7 Congestion Pricing in Developing Countries 68 CONTENTS vii Frequently Asked Questions 1 How do you decide when to lower transport fuel sulfur limits, and to what level? 29 2 If it costs only a cent or two a liter to improve fuel quality, why can’t we improve fuel quality immediately? 31 3 Since CNG produces markedly lower particulate emissions than diesel, why not promote switching from diesel to CNG in all cities with serious particulate air pollution? 37 4 Biofuels are renewable and hence should surely form an important component of sustainable transport, so shouldn’t all governments actively promote biofuels? 39 5 When would it make sense to install passive catalyzed particulate filters? 44 6 Does privatization of public transport lead to worsening urban air pollution? 62 ix Acknowledgments This report was commissioned by the Air Quality Thematic Group of the World Bank, consisting of spe- cialists from the environment, transport, and energy sectors. The report has been approved by the Environ- ment, Transport, and Energy and Mining Sector Boards of the World Bank. The Air Quality Thematic Group discussed and agreed on the report in detail. Important contributors to this review process included Ronald Anderson, Asif Faiz, David Hanrahan, Pierre Graftieaux, Magda Lovei, Paul Procee, Richard Scurfield, Jitu Shah, Akira Tanabe, and Robert T. Watson. Nigel Clark, George Berry Chair of Engineering, Department of Mechani- cal and Aerospace Engineering, University of West Virginia, conducted a technical review of the first ver- sion of the report in June–July 2003. Consultation drafts of this report were discussed in workshops in Bangkok, Thailand, in June 2003; Rio Janeiro, Brazil, in December 2003; and Washington, D.C., in January 2004. A Web-based consultation was conducted in March and April of 2004. Comments were received from national and international nongov- ernmental organizations, academics, industry, and gov- ernments. We are grateful to the participants of the work- shops and all those who provided written comments during the consultation process. The authors thank Linda Harteker and Paula Whitacre for editorial assis- tance and Nita Congress for desktop publishing. [...]... information and advice on air pollution control experiences in the transport sector from both industrial and developing countries that will assist the local formulation of policies towards urban air pollution in many different circumstances CHAPTER 2 A Systematic Approach to Controlling Urban Air Pollution from Mobile Sources To assess the seriousness of transport- related air pollution and enable informed... waterways, and airports can have a marked impact on urban air pollution xv xvi REDUCING AIR POLLUTION FROM URBAN TRANSPORT by country, there is no “magic bullet” to solve all problems Hence the report does not prescribe a “onesize-fits-all” list of technological imperatives, but rather concentrates on providing information and a strategy framework with which countries may design and adopt air pollution. .. the pollution problem This entails monitoring air quality and comparing ambient concentrations with national air quality standards or, in their absence, internationally recognized health-based air quality guidelines Pollution reduction measures should focus on the most damaging pollutants, based on the combined impact of high ambient concentra1 Chapter 2 xvii xviii REDUCING AIR POLLUTION FROM URBAN TRANSPORT. .. in order to diagnose urban air pollution problems, determine the role of the transport sector, and identify affordable and sustainable solutions Figure 1 suggests a number of logical steps in developing a strategy for controlling air pollution from urban transport The first step is to establish the magnitude and nature of the ambient air quality problem in a particular FIGURE 1 Air Quality Monitoring... strengthened (chapter 7) to construct an overall policy package (chapter 8) Policy Instruments for Reducing Transport Emissions and Reducing Human Exposure The contribution of transport to air pollution can be viewed broadly as the product of three factors.2 Air pollution from mobile sources can be decreased by reducing emissions per unit of fuel,3 consuming less fuel per passenger- or freight-kilometer... transport- related air pollution will be suboptimal or ineffective over the longer term without policy changes in the transport and fuel sectors While such policy changes will rarely be made based on environmental concerns alone, it is important to recognize that reforms in the urban transport sector or the oil and gas industry can have an enormous positive effect on reducing transport- related air pollution. .. Encouraging Nonmotorized Transport, Regulation and Control of Public Road Passenger Transport, and The Role of Mass Transit Mixing motorized and nonmotorized transport, as well as public transport vehicles with cars and other vehicle types, reduces the average speed of traffic and makes it difficult to establish an effective bus system xx REDUCING AIR POLLUTION FROM URBAN TRANSPORT conventional bus... emissions will remain low over the lifetime of the vehicle The state of vehicle repair is known to have a great impact on the amount of pollution generated and of fuel consumed Fuel and vehicle technology measures will be most effective in reducing emissions if vehicles are routinely repaired xxii REDUCING AIR POLLUTION FROM URBAN TRANSPORT and serviced, if cheaper but lower-quality counterfeit spare parts... energy demand by the urban transport sector, such as modal choice and land use planning, are likely to have much greater effect on GHG emissions and be more cost-effective than incremental changes in fuels and vehicles (GEF 2002) Urban Transport Policy in Developing Countries Environmental policy decisions cannot be separated from transport sector policy decisions Urban air pollution from mobile sources... industry study) NEPC National Environment Protection Council (of Australia) NG Natural gas xiii xiv REDUCING AIR POLLUTION FROM URBAN TRANSPORT NGO Nongovernmental organization UNECE NGV Natural gas vehicle URBAIR Urban Air Quality Management Strategy in Asia NMHC Nonmethane hydrocarbons USDA NMT Nonmotorized transport U.S EPA U.S Environmental Protection Agency NO Nitric oxide U.S GAO U.S General Accounting . harbors, inland waterways, and airports can have a marked impact on urban air pollution. xvi REDUCING AIR POLLUTION FROM URBAN TRANSPORT by country, there. 650,000 people died prematurely from urban air pollution in developing countries in 2000. The need to tackle air pollution from transport is widely acknowledged.