Free download from www.hsrcpress.ac.za Published by HSRC Press Private Bag X9182, Cape Town, 8000, South Africa www.hsrcpress.ac.za First published 2009 ISBN (paperback) 978-0-7969-2243-4 ISBN (pdf) 978-0-7969-2260-1 © 2009 Human Sciences Research Council Copyedited by Lisa Compton Typeset by Robin Taylor Cover by Fuel Design Print management by Greymatter & Finch Distributed in Africa by Blue Weaver Tel: +27 (0) 21 701 4477; Fax: +27 (0) 21 701 7302 www.oneworldbooks.com Distributed in Europe and the United Kingdom by Eurospan Distribution Services (EDS) Tel: +44 (0) 20 7240 0856; Fax: +44 (0) 20 7379 0609 www.eurospanbookstore.com Distributed in North America by Independent Publishers Group (IPG) Call toll-free: (800) 888 4741; Fax: +1 (312) 337 5985 www.ipgbook.com Free download from www.hsrcpress.ac.za Tables and figures iv Series preface vii Project preface viii Acknowledgements ix Executive summary x Acronyms and abbreviations xvi 1 Introduction 1 2 Researchscopeandmethodology 7 3 Profileofthepopulation 27 4 Learners’schoolsituationin2005 41 5 Learners’aspirationsoneyearfromsurvey date 51 6 Long-termaspirationsandexpectations 89 7 Findingsofthefocusgroupinterviews 95 8 Implicationsofthefindings 103 9 Conclusion 113 Appendices Appendix 1 Grade 12 learner aspiration questionnaire 115 Appendix 2 Interview schedules 127 References 135 Free download from www.hsrcpress.ac.za iv Tables Table 2.1 Matrix of variables affecting learners’ aspirations with regard to higher education 8 Table 2.2 School sample frame for the grade 12 learner aspiration survey 15 Table 2.3 Unweighted number of respondents to the grade 12 learner aspiration survey, by province 17 Table 2.4 Sample frame, response profile and weighting for the grade 12 learner aspiration survey 18 Table 2.5 School response rates for the grade 12 learner aspiration survey, by province 20 Table 2.6 Unweighted number of respondents to the grade 12 learner aspiration survey, by province and race 20 Table 2.7 Missing race information in the grade 12 learner aspiration survey, by province 21 Table 2.8 Realised sample for focus group interviews 23 Table 3.1 Race of respondents (%) 27 Table 3.2 Language spoken most at home by grade 12 learners, by province (%) 28 Table 3.3 Categorisation of education and income variables into an ordinal variable 30 Table 3.4 Socio-economic status of grade 12 learners, by province (%) 31 Table 3.5 Cross-tabulation of race with socio-economic status 31 Table 3.6 Distribution of grade 12 learner disabilities according to Census 2001 categories 32 Table 3.7 Highest level of education of father/male guardian (%) 34 Table 3.8 Highest level of education of mother/female guardian (%) 34 Table 3.9 Employment status of learners’ fathers/male guardians (%) 35 Table 3.10 Employment status of learners’ mothers/female guardians (%) 36 Table 3.11 Grade 12 learners who do not know their parents’/guardians’ monthly incomes (%) 37 Table 3.12 Monthly income of learners’ fathers/male guardians (%) 37 Table 3.13 Monthly income of learners’ mothers/female guardians (%) 37 Table 3.14 Learners with parents and/or siblings who are studying, by race (%) 39 Table 3.15 Categorisation of sources of information in the home, by race (%) 40 Table 4.1 Top ten grade 12 learner subjects by enrolment, level, expected SCE symbol and achieved grade 11 symbol, 2005 (%) 42 Table 4.2 Expected and achieved symbols in selected subjects in the SCE, 2005 (%) 43 Table 4.3 Grade 12 learners’ average grade 11 symbol, by race (%) 44 Table 4.4 Preparation for adult life 45 Table 4.5 Perceived numerical ability and grade 11 symbol in mathematics (%) 45 Free download from www.hsrcpress.ac.za v Table 4.6 Perceived numerical ability and grade 11 symbol in mathematics (%), by race 46 Table 4.7 Types and extent of career guidance provided by schools 47 Table 4.8 Types and extent of career guidance provided by schools, by race, 2005 (%) 48 Table 4.9 Types and extent of career guidance provided by schools, by race, 2001 (%) 49 Table 5.1 Learners’ preferred main activity one year hence 51 Table 5.2 Learners’ preferred main activity one year hence, by race (%) 51 Table 5.3 Learners’ preferred main activity one year hence, by gender (%) 52 Table 5.4 Institution types at which learners plan to study after grade 12, by race (%) 53 Table 5.5 Institution types at which learners plan to study after grade 12, by gender (%) 53 Table 5.6 Variables affecting grade 12 learners’ aspiration to study at a higher education institution, in descending order of effect 54 Table 5.7 Variables affecting grade 12 learners’ aspiration to study at a higher education institution, in descending order of effect by total, by race 56 Table 5.8 Institutional preferences of learners by parent/guardian income (%) 58 Table 5.9 Institutional preferences of learners by parent/guardian employment status (%) 59 Table 5.10 Average grade 11 symbol and aspiration to enter higher education (%) 61 Table 5.11 Average grade 11 symbol and aspiration to study education (as a first choice) (%) 61 Table 5.12 Percentages of learners aspiring to study various university programmes, by average grade 11 symbol 61 Table 5.13 Variables affecting learners’ decision to enter higher education in 2006 63 Table 5.14 Variables affecting learners’ decision to enter higher education in 2006, by race 64 Table 5.15 First-choice preference of higher education institution, by province, in descending order of national preference (%) 65 Table 5.16 First-choice preference of higher education institution, by race, in descending order of national preference (%) 67 Table 5.17 First-choice preference of higher education institution, by province, including all institutions based in provinces, in descending order of popularity 70 Table 5.18 Top ten higher education institutional preferences: first, second and third choices 72 Table 5.19 Distribution of institutional preference (top ten) by average grade 11 symbol, in descending order of preference 73 Table 5.20 Variables influencing institutional preferences, in descending order of influence 74 Table 5.21 Variables influencing institutional preferences, by race, in descending order of influence 75 Free download from www.hsrcpress.ac.za vi Table 5.22 Preferred qualification type, by race (%) 76 Table 5.23 Preferred programme area for higher education study (%) 77 Table 5.24 First-choice programme for higher education study, by race (%) 79 Table 5.25 First-choice programme for higher education study, by gender (%) 80 Table 5.26 First-choice programme for higher education study, by gender, 2001 and 2005 (%) 81 Table 5.27 Variables influencing higher education programme preference, in descending order according to extent of influence 82 Table 5.28 Variables influencing higher education programme preference, by race, in descending order according to extent of total influence 83 Table 5.29 Variables influencing teacher education programme preference, by race, in descending order according to extent of total influence 85 Table 5.30 Variables influencing decision to enter the teaching profession, by race, in descending order according to extent of total influence 86 Table 5.31 Responses of all respondents and of aspirant education students to questions regarding key aspects of the teaching profession 88 Table 6.1 Likelihood of variables describing grade 12 learners’ situations ten years hence 89 Table 6.2 Likelihood of variables describing grade 12 learners’ situations ten years hence, by race 90 Table 6.3 Grade 12 learners’ attitudes towards major social issues ten years hence 90 Table 6.4 Learners’ perceptions of the socio-political situation in the country ten years hence, in descending order of extent of agreement, 2001 student choice behaviour survey 92 Figure Figure 3.1 Distribution of grade 12 learners by socio-economic status 30 Free download from www.hsrcpress.ac.za vii The Teacher Education in South Africa series is produced as part of the Teacher Education Programme (TEP), funded by the Embassy of the Kingdom of the Netherlands from 2005 to 2008. The programme took place at a critical juncture in the development of teacher education in post-apartheid South Africa. Since 2004, sustained attention has been given to the improvement of teacher education consequent on the revision of the curriculum and the restructuring of higher education. In October 2004, the Council on Higher Education initiated a review of teacher education programmes. On 26 April 2007, a National Policy Framework for Teacher Education and Development was gazetted. This provided the basis for a new system of teacher education and development for a new generation of South African teachers. The TEP emerged within this overall context of enhanced attention being given to the improvement of teacher education. Its overall goal was ‘to contribute to the knowledge and information base for policy formulation and implementation regarding the organisation and practice of teacher education, with a particular emphasis on initial teacher education (both pre-service and upgrading), as well as the professional development of school leaders and managers’ (CEA, CEPD, EFT, HSRC & SAIDE 2005). The work was organised under four major themes: teacher supply and demand; institutional culture and governance; the development of education management; and literacy and teacher development. The programme was designed by a consortium of agencies with considerable expertise and experience in the field: the Centre for Education Policy Development (CEPD); the Human Sciences Research Council (HSRC); the South African Institute for Distance Education (SAIDE); the Centre for Evaluation and Assessment (CEA) at the University of Pretoria; and the Education Foundation Trust (EFT). 1 The TEP was developed in consultation with stakeholders such as the national Department of Education, the Ministerial Working Group on Teacher Education, the Deans’ Forum and the Council on Higher Education/Higher Education Quality Committee, among others. Briefing and consultation continued through the process of research, for the consortium as a whole and in relation to specific projects. Michael Cosser, HSRC Organisational Manager, Teacher Education Programme 1 The EFT has been disbanded, and uncompleted projects have been taken over by the consortium. Free download from www.hsrcpress.ac.za viii This research report forms part of a series of reports on projects that fall under the theme of teacher supply and demand. It is specifically concerned with aspirations to study and enter teaching. The National Policy Framework for Teacher Education and Development in South Africa, gazetted in April 2007 (DoE 2007b), highlights this as a crucial area for further research. This report attempts to address this need. From such research, targeted interventions can follow that will assist in ensuring a stronger supply of well-qualified teachers in the teaching profession. This report is the first in a series of reports on the cohort of learners who were in grade 12 in 2005. This monograph investigates the responses of 20 659 learners across all nine provinces to a baseline survey of learner aspirations for the future, specifically with regard to entry into higher education and study in the education field. In addition to this quantitative analysis, it reports on the findings of focus group interviews conducted in six provinces – Gauteng, KwaZulu-Natal, Limpopo, the Eastern Cape, the Northern Cape and the Western Cape – to deepen the research team’s understanding of learners’ views about the teaching profession and their reasons for wanting or not wanting to pursue a career in education. The subsequent reports will trace the 2005 cohort of learners to their destinations in 2006, 2007 and 2008 to investigate the factors that have shaped their pathways. Michael Cosser, Project Leader Free download from www.hsrcpress.ac.za ix The project for which this report is the output could not have been undertaken without the support of a number of people. I would like to pay tribute to the following team members: Nicole Moses project and survey management Badiri Moila project and survey administration Lolita Winnaar sampling, database management, data weighting Mariette Visser sampling, database management Sekinah Sehlola editing Mario Pillay (EFT) 2 focus group design Peter Verbeek (EFT) focus group management and report writing Arjen van Zwieten database management. In addition, I wish to thank the Teacher Education Programme consortium for its continued support: John Pampallis and Michelle Buchler (CEPD); Jenny Glennie and Tessa Welch (SAIDE); Sarah Howie and Elsie Venter (CEA, University of Pretoria); and Cornelius Hacking and Lebogang Molai (Embassy of the Kingdom of the Netherlands). Vijay Reddy and Linda Chisholm, my colleagues in the Education, Science and Skills Development research programme, have also been enormously supportive. The generous financial backing of the Embassy of the Kingdom of the Netherlands, and the collegiality with which Cornelius Hacking and Lebogang Molai approached the disbursement of funds, made working within the programme and on this particular project a pleasure. The project could not have been undertaken without the cooperation of the national Department of Education and its provincial satellites, which gave permission for the team to conduct the survey in schools across the country. My thanks go to all the schools that participated in the survey – and, of course, to the 20 659 learners who completed questionnaires and agreed to participate in subsequent tracer studies. Finally, I would like to thank Linda Chisholm, Jane Hendry (Institutional Planning Department, University of Cape Town) and Jeremy Seekings (Centre for Social Science Research, University of Cape Town) for their very helpful comments on an earlier draft of this report. 2 EFT = Education Foundation Trust, a research partner in this project before the dissolution of the organisation. Free download from www.hsrcpress.ac.za x This monograph analyses and discusses the findings of a study of learners who were in grade 12 in 2005. The main objective of the 2005 Grade 12 Learner Aspiration Project was to investigate the factors affecting grade 12 learners’ aspirations with regard to their future learning and career trajectories. Of specific interest was whether they planned to proceed to higher education to study education with a view to entering the teaching profession. A survey was conducted among grade 12 learners in the second and third quarters of 2005. The sample for the survey comprised schools that were stratified by province and by pass rate in the 2004 Senior Certificate Examination (SCE). All grade 12 learners in these schools were requested to complete questionnaires, which were administered by teachers in the schools themselves. A total of 20 659 learners in 362 schools completed the questionnaires that generated the data for the study. In addition, a set of focus group interviews of respondents to the survey conducted in six provinces sought to deepen understanding of learners’ attitudes towards the teaching profession and the reasons for their interest in entering or not entering the profession. The key findings of the study and their implications are presented below. Key findings Aspiration to proceed to higher education • Morethansevenoutoftengrade12respondents(72.2%)wouldprefertobe studying, a fifth (20.3%) working, 6.5% travelling overseas and 1% doing none of these activities one year from the survey date. • BlackAfricanandIndian/Asianlearners’aspirationtostudy(73.7%and73.2% respectively) is far higher than white and coloured learners’ aspiration to study (63.8% and 64.4% respectively). White learners’ aspiration to travel abroad, on the other hand, is far higher (at 13.5%) than that of any other group, with black African learners’ aspiration to travel abroad being the lowest, at 5.7%. • Fromagenderperspective,whilethree-quartersoffemalelearnerssee themselves studying, 69.4% of male learners expect to be studying. Concomitantly, a higher percentage of male learners (23.5%) than of female learners (17.7%) see themselves working one year from the survey date. • Ofthosewhoplantostudyfurtheraftergrade12(5%areunsureaboutwhich institution type they plan to enter), three out of five learners (59.8%) plan to study at a higher education institution, exactly one-quarter at a further education and training (FET) college, 3.2% at a private FET institution, 3.4% at an agricultural college and 8.6% at a nursing college. Far higher percentages of Indian/Asian and white learners than of black African and coloured learners plan to study at a higher education institution; the corollary is that far higher percentages of black African and coloured learners than of Indian/Asian and white learners plan to study at an FET college. A higher percentage of white learners than of learners of other races plan to study at a private FET institution, while a lower percentage of white learners than of learners of other races plan to study at a nursing college. • Fromagenderperspective(5.4%ofmalesand4.7%offemalesareunsureabout their preferred institution type), slightly higher percentages of male learners than of female learners want to study at a higher education institution (61.4% Free download from www.hsrcpress.ac.za [...]... to do so (6.5% versus 2.5%) Male learners’ aspiration to study education is higher than female learners’ aspiration to do so (3.3% male versus 2.7% female), which reverses the male–female interest in studying education observed in 2001 (1% male versus 1.8% female) and learners’ financial status as measured by parental/guardian income level and employment situation The higher the income level of learners’... their 2001 counterparts xii Implications Aspiration to proceed to higher education Free download from www.hsrcpress.ac.za three-quarters of respondents – is to continue along their learning pathways, studying either at higher education institutions (the choice of three out of five learners who plan to study further) or FET institutions (the choice of one in four learners who plan to study beyond grade... is doubtful, however; only 13.7% of learners in grade 12 in 2001 proceeded to higher education in 2002 The annual mismatch between aspiration and enrolment is bound to foster cumulative dissent as the ambitions of successive cohorts of young people are thwarted – a social phenomenon with potentially far-reaching consequences least waning That black African learners’ interest in entering higher education... higher learning, at least at the aspirational level higher than black African learners’ aspiration to do so replicates the disjunction between white learners’ and black African learners’ preference for studying education observed in the 2001 study, and would therefore seem to signal a trend This development is worrying in a national context of dire need for wellqualified teachers in rural areas, which... pertaining to the pursuit of teacher education These two literatures underpin the study design, which is focused in the first instance on learner aspirations for the future whether or not learners plan on studying education at university and, in the second, on learner aspirations specifically to enrol for teacher education programmes with a view to entering the teaching profession Most significantly for... situation Education Influence on learner Finance Parental income Access to finance Home province Home province Siblings Free download from www.hsrcpress.ac.za Physical disability Population group Home Gender Studying Graduates Family situation School Family responsibility Academic performance Academic performance (grade 11) Academic performance School Provision of career guidance Provision of career guidance... study go some way towards addressing these issues, but the questions around these issues need to be sharpened Undertaking case studies Reference is made later in this report to a major study of adolescent ambitions conducted by researchers at the University of Chicago over a number of decades (Schneider & Stevenson 1999) While the present study is in its infancy, the research team should explore the feasibility . Fromagenderperspective,whilethree-quartersoffemalelearnerssee themselves studying, 69.4% of male learners expect to be studying. Concomitantly, a higher percentage of male. mothers/female guardians (%) 37 Table 3.14 Learners with parents and/or siblings who are studying, by race (%) 39 Table 3.15 Categorisation of sources of information