International Perspectives on Managerial Decision-Making 2009.12.12

本本本 12 本 12 本 EMBA本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本 本本本本本本本本本本 本本本 本本本本本本本本本 〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔 〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔 〔〔〔〔〔〔 〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔 〔 〔 〔 〔 〔 〔 〔 〔 〔 〔 〔 〔 〔 〔 〔 〔 〔 〔 〔 〔 〔 〔 〔 〔 〔 〔 〔 〔 〔 〔 〔 80 〔 〔 〔 〔 〔 〔 〔 〔 〔 〔 〔 〔 〔 〔 〔 〔〔 本本本本本本 〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔 〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔 〔 〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔 〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔 〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔 〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔 本本本本本本(assignment questions) 〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔 〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔 -1- 本本本本本本本本本本本本 本本本本本本本本本本本本 150 本本本本本本 〔〔〔〔:2009/12/06 14:50 戴戴戴 〔〔〔〔〔〔 〔〔〔 〔〔〔〔〔〔Met Office〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔 〔〔 150 〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔 〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔 〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔 1000 〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔 〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔 150 〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔 〔〔〔〔〔〔 188 〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔 〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔University of East Anglia's Climatic ResearchUnit, CRU〔〔〔〔〔〔CRU 〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔 〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔 CRU 〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔 〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔 〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔IntergovernmentalPanel on Climate Change, IPCC〔〔〔〔〔〔 〔Rajendra Pachauri〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔 〔〔〔〔〔〔 CRU 〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔 -2- 〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔 -3- Key global climate talks begin in Copenhagen By Hilary Whiteman, CNN | 12/07/2009 4:58 PM (CNN) The drumbeat rousing world leaders to action on climate change is fading out as delegates get down to the business of negotiating a global deal at climate talks in Copenhagen Almost 100 heads of state have confirmed they will attend the 15th meeting of the Conference of Parties, or COP15, which begins Monday in the Danish capital The summit is testing the capacity limits of the Bella Center, a sprawling conference building outside the city center where the talks are being held More than 34,000 people have applied to attend the meetings more than double the number allowed to be in the center at any one time Non-government organizations have been told some of their members will have to wait outside, while registration has closed early for journalists after 3,500 applied for access Speaking at a "curtain-raiser" press conference on Sunday, Yvo de Boer, Executive Secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC), said: "Time is up." "Over the next two weeks government have to deliver a strong and long term response to the challenge of climate change." He said the level of commitment so far from developing and developed countries to reduce their emissions was "unprecedented." "Never in the 17 years of climate change negotiations have so many different nations made so many firm pledges together," he said On the sidelines, controversy over a series of e-mails stolen from the UK's University of East Anglia's Climatic Research Unit (CRU) is igniting debate in some quarters over the extent of climate change -4- The emails were seized upon by those who have questioned the evidence that the earth's climate is significantly warming and that human burning of fossil fuels is a significant contributor to that warming trajectory De Boer said he welcomed the scrutiny that some have called "Climategate" has brought upon the issue "I actually think it's very good that what is happening has been critically addressed in the media This process has to be based on solid science If the integrity of the science is being called into question that needs to be examined," he added The head of the East Anglia Climate Research Unit, Professor Phil Jones, has stepped down while an independent review is conducted into the affair De Boer said successive reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the most recent of which was released in 2007, made it clear that man-made climate change was a global threat Those IPCC reports are based on many thousands of climate measurements examined by climate scientists from more than 100 countries "This is not the first report from the IPCC It's the fourth report and it's consistent in the trend." "I not believe that there is any process anywhere out there that is that transparent," he added In the last two weeks, the world's biggest emitters the U.S and China have quantified their proposed cuts in carbon emissions and intensity The U.S has said it will cut carbon emissions by 17 percent on 2005 levels by 2020 That equates to a cut of just four percent on 1990 levels, the baseline used by most other countries China announced a "notable" commitment of a 40 percent to 45 percent cut in carbon intensity on 2005 levels by 2020 Carbon intensity is a measurement of emissions per unit of gross domestic product -5- While De Boer welcomed President Obama's decision to reshuffle his schedule to attend the end of the talks, he made it clear he expected the U.S to come to the talks with a firm emissions target and financial contribution Firm funding commitments from developed countries for developing countries is seen as vital to reaching an agreement in Copenhagen UNFCC is seeking $10 billion each year in 2010, 2011 and 2012 before the figures rise sharply "By 2020 and 2030 we're going to need much more significant sums to deal with mitigation and adaptation," De Boer said In the next two weeks, he said countries must agree on three layers of action: Fast action to mitigate and adapt to climate change from 2010, "ambitious" commitment to cut and limit carbon emissions and a long-term "shared" vision for a "low-emissions future for all." "I know two things for sure: There will be many more steps on the road to a safe climate future but also few turning points And Copenhagen must be such a turning point," de Boer said as of 12/07/2009 4:58 PM -6- UN Summit on Climate Change, 22 September 2009 STATEMENT OF DR R K PACHAURI Chairman, IPCC Director General, The Energy and Resources Institute Director, Yale Climate and Energy Institute Excellencies, members of the media, distinguished ladies and gentlemen! I speak to you in the voice of the world’s scientific community, which in November 2007 completed IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), the collective effort of almost four thousand of the world’s best specialists working tirelessly over five years The uniqueness of this mammoth exercise lies in the fact that all the governments of the world – your own governments –approved of this report, and therefore have full ownership of its contents, some salient features of which I mention now We stated, “Warming of the climate system is unequivocal as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice and rising global sea level”, and that “Most of the observed increase in temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic GHG concentrations” In the twentieth century average global temperature increased by 0.740 C while sea level rise resulting from thermal expansion of the ocean and melting of ice across the globe amounted to 17 cms With this increase the Maldive Islands with land surface barely a metre or two above sea level, every storm surge and major upwelling of the seas represents a major danger to life and property But this is not all Climate change is already resulting in an increase in the frequency, intensity and duration of floods, droughts and heat waves Precipitation has increased significantly in eastern parts of North and South America, northern Europe and northern and central Asia, whereas it declined in the Sahel, the Mediterranean, southern Africa and parts of south Asia Globally the area affected by drought has increased since the 1970s The frequency of heavy precipitation events (or proportion of total rainfall from heavy falls) has increased over most areas If we take no action to stabilize the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, then average temperature by the end of this century would increase anywhere from 1.1 degrees to 6.4 degrees C The world is increasing its emissions at a rate that may take us to the upper end of the range projected, which implies a total increase in these two centuries of over degrees C, that is, over 12 degrees -7- Fahrenheit Yet between 1970 and 2004 global GHG emissions increased by 70% and carbon dioxide by 80% We must halt this unacceptable trend Climate change, in the absence of mitigation policies would in all likelihood lead to: Possible disappearance of sea ice by the latter part of the 21st century Increase in frequency of hot extremes, heat waves and heavy precipitation Increase in tropical cyclone intensity Decrease in water resources due to climate change in many semi-arid areas, such as the Mediterranean Basin, western United States, southern Africa and north-eastern Brazil Possible elimination of the Greenland ice sheet and a resulting contribution to sea level rise of about metres Without mitigation future temperatures in Greenland would compare with levels estimated for 125,000 years ago when palaeoclimate information suggests to m of sea level rise Approximately 20 to 30% of species assessed so far are likely to be at increased risk of extinction if increases in global average warming exceed 1.5 to 2.5 degrees C In Africa, by 2020, between 75 and 250 million people are projected to be exposed to water stress due to climate change, and in some countries yields from rainfed agriculture could be reduced by up to 50% The impacts of climate change would be disproportionately severe on some of the poorest regions and communities of the world My own analysis suggests that at least 12 countries are likely to tend towards becoming failed states and communities in several other states would show potential for serious conflict due to scarcity of food, water stress and soil degradation Mitigation of emissions is essential, and the IPCC has assessed its costs as modest To limit average temperature increase at 2.0 and 2.4 degrees C, the cost of mitigation by 2030 would not exceed 3% of the global GDP In other words, the so-called prosperity expected in 2030 would be postponed by just a few months Further, mitigation carries many cobenefits, such as lower levels of air pollution and associated health benefits, higher energy security, larger employment and stable agricultural production, ensuring greater food security A portfolio of technologies, currently available or expected to be commercialized, enable stringent mitigation efforts being mounted today -8- It is heartening that the G8 leaders have recognized the broad scientific view of limiting increase in global average temperature to 2° C But, we have clearly specified that if temperature increase is to be limited to between 2.0 and 2.4° C, global emissions must peak no later than 2015 That is only six years from now And the 2.0° ceiling too would lead to sea-level rise on account of thermal expansion alone of 0.4 to 1.4 meters This increase added to the effect melting of snow and ice across the globe, could submerge several small island states and Bangladesh Avoiding the impacts of climate change through mitigation of emissions would provide incalculable benefits including economic expansion and employment If those in this August gathering not act on time, all of us would become leaders and citizens of failed states, because we would be failing in our sacred duty to protect this planet, which gives life to all species Science leaves us with no space for inaction now -9- Peanut shells, corn stalks: China's alternative to coal? By Emily Chang, CNN December 6, 2009 9:55 p.m EST Shengchang uses corn stalks, tree bark and peanut shells to make pellets that can replace coal STORY HIGHLIGHTS • China is the world's largest emitter of greenhouse gases • The country relies on coal for 70 percent of its energy • Beijing to cut carbon intensity 40-45 percent below 2005 levels by 2020 • Analysts: China's emissions will still rise significantly but at a slower pace Beijing, China (CNN) Mountains of peanut shells are spread out across Shengchang Bioenergy's property on the outskirts of Beijing Local farmers drive in and out, unloading dried corn stalks in exchange for a small fee The peanut shells, corn stalks and even tree bark are dried, ground and re-purposed The end result: Biomass pellets that can be used as a replacement for coal Shengchang Bioenergy also makes a line of stoves and boilers in which the pellets can be burned The company says the stoves are up to five times more energy efficient than traditional coal boilers and are slightly cheaper to operate "Our stoves mean a lot to rural villagers because they heat more effectively," said the company's general manager, Fu Youhong "They're very accessible and we're planning to expand with the government." Just down the street from the factory, Bi Hongjun, a bus driver for the city of Beijing, has received a new stove as part of a test project with Shengchang Bioenergy and the Ministry of Agriculture "It's very easy to use," Bi said as he demonstrated how to load the energy-saving stove with the pellets "It's not like the old-style cumbersome boiler which is difficult to light." The Shengchang boilers are one small-scale example of how China can make a large- -10- The news was greeted with dismay in Australia Heather Ridout, chief executive of the Australian Industry Group, the country's biggest business trade body, said an important policy issue had been left unresolved and it would "prolong, if not compound the uncertainty for business" The Climate Institute, an independent research group, foreshadowed another year of political squabbling and scaremongering "The low-carbon train is leaving the station round the world and Australia is haemorrhaging investments in clean energy industries and technology to competitors in developed and developing countries," John Connor, the Climate Institute's chief executive said "It's a sad irony that while the U.S and China are investing billions in renewable energy and battling over who will lead the clean energy economy, Australian politicians are squabbling in the 'domestic playground' of party politics," he added After the Senate decision, Mr Abbott said it would be a mistake for Australia to make a decision before the Copenhagen climate change summit and before the US had established its model "The Senate has delivered a big win to the people of Australia who have been saved from a massive new tax that would have been foisted on them without proper scrutiny," Mr Abbott said -23- Climate change threatens life in Shishmaref, Alaska By John D Sutter, CNN December 3, 2009 Updated 0839 GMT (1639 HKT) STORY HIGHLIGHTS • World leaders meet next week in Copenhagen to try to pass a treaty on climate change • Meanwhile, warming is threatening places like Shishmaref, Alaska • One couple in arctic village live at edge of coast that's melting • Their safety, survival of Shishmaref's Inupiat Eskimo culture are in jeopardy Shishmaref, Alaska (CNN) When the arctic winds howl and angry waves pummel the shore of this Inupiat Eskimo village, Shelton and Clara Kokeok fear that their house, already at the edge of the Earth, finally may plunge into the gray sea below "The land is going away," said Shelton Kokeok, 65, whose home is on the tip of a bluff that's been melting in part because of climate change "I think it's going to vanish one of these days." Coastal erosion has been an issue for decades here, but rising global temperatures have started to thaw the permafrost that once helped anchor this village in place Sea ice that protects Shishmaref's coast from erosion melts earlier in the spring and forms later in the fall As a result, the increasingly mushy and exposed soil along Shishmaref's shore is falling into the water in snowmobile-sized chunks The crumbling land already toppled one house into the sea Thirteen other homes -nearly all of the Kokeoks' neighbors had to be moved inland The land they stood on washed away Now the Kokeoks' wooden residence, which Shelton built by hand 20 years ago, stands alone only feet from the edge of this barrier island But safety is only one of Shishmaref's many concerns The warming climate and erosion threaten to steal the Kokeoks' centuries-old culture, their unique language and the viability of their entire village They're not alone A dozen Alaskan villages, including Shishmaref, are at some stage of moving because of climate-change-related impacts like coastal erosion and flooding Around the world, as many as 150 million people may become "climate refugees" because of global warming, according to an Environmental Justice Foundation report, which attributes some of the moves to rising sea levels People in Shishmaref are aware that world leaders will meet next week in Copenhagen, Denmark, to try to hammer out an international treaty on climate change -24- Read the CNN special report on an Alaska town "on the brink." Most of the talk at the United Nations Climate Change Conference will focus on cutting the industrial world's emissions of heat-trapping gases, or trying to prevent climate disasters like those already seen here and in other coastal communities Three students from Shishmaref will travel to Copenhagen as witnesses to the impact of climate change That doesn't give Shelton and Clara much comfort Many of their neighbors have resigned themselves to having to leave Shishmaref because of the changes Not Shelton "This is my hometown," he said "I don't want to go anywhere." Shelton is afraid to budge from his perilous location on the front lines of the climate catastrophe To move would be to give in, to lose everything Already, he's lost more than he can bear Harsh environment As far as outsiders are concerned, Shishmaref might as well be at the edge of the Earth Only 20 miles south of the Arctic Circle and less than 150 miles from Russian Siberia, the village's geography alone makes it seem uninhabitable Its 600 residents endure temperatures that drop to minus 40 degrees Fahrenheit in the winter Polar bear sightings are common Water is scarce There's no plumbing in most homes; ice is harvested from lakes in microwave-size blocks and melted in buckets No roads connect Shishmaref to the outside world It's a harsh, isolated and dangerous place but one Shelton has learned to love Shishmaref's tundra environment provides everything he needs The village island, about a quarter-mile wide in the center, sits between the Chukchi Sea and the wide estuary of the Serpentine River That's prime real estate for hunting and fishing, the main forms of survival and employment in the village In the winter, Shishmaref residents hack tiny cylinders of ice out of the estuary to fish for tomcod and smelt In the summer, when the sun hangs in the sky almost 24 hours a day, locals harvest cloudberries, which are orange, and blueberries; caribou and reindeer herds gallop across the vast expanse of inland tundra When Shelton was growing up, he looked forward to the springtime hunt for bearded seals, spotted seals and walrus, which took place out on the still-frozen sea Dried meats and oils cured from those marine mammals sustained the community year-round, even when other hunts or fishing seasons went poorly Shelton's father taught him to hunt seals They rode a dogsled toward an eerily flat horizon, where the thick slate of white sea-ice met an eternal blue sky At the edge of the ice, they hunted sea mammals out of the frigid water below Shelton has raised his four children in Shishmaref's unique traditions Clara, his wife, still sews seal slippers They speak Inupiaq at home Dried seal meat, black and crusty, -25- hangs on a wooden rack beside their house They keep seal oil in the kitchen Their kids grew up eating both Norman Charlie, Shelton's youngest son, learned to chase down seals and fish as soon as he was old enough to handle the arctic elements The boy became a fine hunter And that pleased Shelton On Norman, Shelton his hopes for the future Forced adaptation Because of its remote location and live-off-the-land lifestyle, it could appear that Shishmaref has remained the same for centuries, as time passed it by That's not the case The village itself is an adaptation to outside influence Shishmaref's people were nomadic, following seals and caribou, until the U.S Bureau of Indian Affairs built a school on the island in the early 1900s and forced Inupiat children to attend Some residents still resent that school; they say it punished those who spoke Inupiaq and stifled other aspects of the Native culture Over the decades, though, the community adjusted to its new stationary existence And today, people are attached to this place Change also has come from within When Shelton was young, Shishmaref was nothing but an outpost of one-room sod houses with no electricity; some villagers made windows out of "Eskimo plastic," the translucent intestines of the bearded seal It was difficult to import materials from the outside, so people got most of what they needed from the land and the sea Today, two stores in Shishmaref sell Cheez-Its, Coke, Tang, ramen noodles and Ruffles, all brought in by plane In front of the local school complex, which has new computers and wi-fi Internet, snowmobiles and all-terrain vehicles drop kids off in the morning In the past, dogsleds were the main mode of transit A sign in a high school class where students learn to make carvings from walrus tusks reminds them to put their iPods away The modernization of Shishmaref angers some people, including Shelton He worries that Shishmaref's youth don't speak Inupiaq as well as they should, and he says people in town are getting fat and lazy in part because soda is available He had to wrestle with the fact that younger generations are carrying on village traditions in new ways when Norman decided to move away from the village, to Fairbanks, Alaska, for work His son returned to Shishmaref to visit He still worked on speaking the local language and tried to carry on his village's musical traditions by participating in a traditional dancing and drumming group And, always, when he was home, he hunted But things were changing -26- Shishmaref exists in a delicate balance with nature and with its own identity And, one morning in June 2007, that balance tipped for Clara and Shelton The storm Morris Kiyutelluk, a short man in an orange ski jacket, walked to the edge of the sea on a recent day, pointed to the slushy water behind Shelton's and Clara's home and said, "That's where I grew up." The land where his house stood has vanished into the ocean It was the middle of a stormy night during the winter of 2002 when Shelton and Clara heard the waves slapping the side of their house with a force that vibrated the floors and shook the walls Next door, behind their house and even closer to the roiling sea, Morris was rushing to evacuate his family By the time his wife and children were out, waves were clawing at the ground underneath his house, to the point that it off the edge of the island by four feet, he said Neighbors wrapped a rope around the body of the red wooden home and pulled in unison They were able to scoot it back just enough to keep it from tipping After that storm and a series of others, Morris' home was among those moved to the other side of the island At first he and his wife, Mildred, had a hard time adjusting to their new life on the sheltered side of the island They joke that they're "eastsiders" now, not "west side people," like they used to be Mildred had trouble sleeping in the new location because the soothing sounds of the sea were gone But, over time, she's learned to sleep through the silence "Apparently, I got used to it," she said In part because they've had to relocate once, Morris and Mildred are among many locals pushing for Shishmaref to move off of this tenuous island and onto an uninhabited location away from the sea Morris says the changes in Shishmaref the melting sea ice, the disappearing seals and polar bears, the crumbling coastline are beyond the village's control "We've got to move There's no question about it," he said "That seawall will stop erosion on this end, but the water will go around it My ancestors said it will happen It will happen." But planning the move has been anything but easy The village voted in 2002 to relocate from the island Seven years later, it has had little luck finding a suitable location or funding A place called Tin Creek, several miles inland, is the most talked-about relocation spot at the moment But many of the same problems that plague Shishmaref could be issues there, too -27- Tin Creek sits on permafrost, and permafrost melt across Alaska has been accelerating The site is further from the sea mammals locals depend on And, to make matters worse, Tin Creek may also be situated atop "ice lenses," thin sheets of underground frozen water that could melt and cause the ground to crater Earlier this decade, the people of Shishmaref applied for grants and started a Web site where the public could donate money for the village's relocation Those efforts haven't gotten the village far That's partly because there's no federal or state government agency ready to pay for the coming wave of "climate refugees," like those in Shishmaref A 2009 Government Accountability Office report found that 31 Alaskan villages face "imminent threats" because of coastal erosion, flooding and climate change At least 12 are at some stage in the relocation process Moving an entire town is not cheap The U.S Army Corps of Engineers estimates that Shishmaref's relocation, if it happens, will cost up to $200 million Relocations of other Alaskan villages carry similar estimates Who's to blame is another contentious topic Residents of the industrialized world could be considered liable for the climate refugee problem, since they produce the bulk of the greenhouse gas emissions that alter the climate Some say the government is responsible Others say it's difficult to prove with absolute certainty that a problem in any single community was caused by climate change because other factors, like land use and natural erosion, could be at play The climate refugee problem gets all the more complicated when considered on a global scale The Environmental Justice Foundation estimates that unchecked climate change will force 150 million people from their homes by mid-century In Shishmaref, when talk of relocation first surfaced, it seemed like the village would be able to adapt, to control its fate Lately, it appears the village's worst fear may come true Shelton and others are terrified that Shishmaref may have to merge with an existing town, like Nome or Kotzebue Both are less than 100 miles away but worlds apart Shishmaref residents say their entire way of life may disappear Without access to the sea, they might have to stop hunting Their threatened dialect, spoken only in Shishmaref, could fizzle and die The village's celebratory dances, its music, its walrus-ivory carvings and native food recipes, all of it could be flushed off the Earth and into history books Over the edge It was about o'clock on a spring morning two years ago when Shelton got the phone call that changed his life His youngest son, Norman Charlie, had gone out duck hunting with a friend They'd -28- traveled by snowmobile across the estuary that separates Shishmaref from the mainland In the past, that stretch of water would have been frozen solid on the first week in June, Shelton said But that year was warmer than usual Shelton waited and waited for his son to come home Finally, the phone call came The ice cracked Norman fell in His friend couldn't save him Shelton blames climate change for taking his son "Something went wrong with me the last couple of years, after we lost that boy," Shelton said "I think he's taken most of my life I lost my baby." Dozens of photos of the young man, who was 24, line Shelton and Clara's living room His grave is on this island Tradition Like the young man who clung to village traditions but whose life was taken by the melting ice, Shishmaref may become a memory For Shelton and Clara, solace is hard to come by these days She had a heart attack last year His knees are giving out He's no longer able to hunt The death of their son pushed them over the edge Their only relief comes from a native tradition: Scattered around their village and beyond are perhaps a half-dozen children, born since their son died, who are named after Norman In Shishmaref, when a child is named after someone who's gone, that child takes on characteristics of his or her namesake Ken Stenek is Shelton's nephew and the local science teacher He and his wife named their youngest boy after Norman Norman Charlie was one of Stenek's favorite students He was a respected hunter He was trying to learn the Inupiaq language He was part of a native dance troupe He was carrying Shishmaref's traditions onward Stenek says he's raising his son to the same At supper time, he grinds up seal meat, a Shishmaref staple, and feeds it to his 7-monthold Baby Norman loves it -29- UK Met Office to publish climate records December 6, 2009 12:08 a.m EST STORY HIGHLIGHTS • UK weather service to publish data it uses to analyze climate • Met Office will make information from over 1000 weather stations available online • Publication follows controversy from leaked emails from separate UK research center London, England (CNN) The UK's weather service, the Met Office is to publish station temperature records that make up the global land surface temperature record Professor John Mitchell, director of climate science at the Met Office told CNN: "We are releasing the data to reassure people that climate data is sound." The data includes information from more than 1000 stations worldwide and will be published online next week The Met Office said it was publishing a subset of the full HadCRUT record of global temperatures that's one of a handful of global temperature data sets that underpin the assessments of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) The announcement comes amid a continuing controversy over leaked emails from the UK's University of East Anglia's Climatic Research Unit (CRU) which were published on the Internet in November The emails were seized upon by climate skeptics who say they prove scientists are manipulating global warming data to strengthen the argument for man-made climate change But Professor Mitchell told CNN that he didn't see "any issue whatsoever with the soundness of global mean temperature records "If you look at the land data, the sea surface data temperatures and mean air temperature data, those three records independently show a 0.7 degree warming trend over the past 100 years That's all published by the IPCC." Professor Mitchell urged people who had become skeptical since the publication of the CRU emails to look at the evidence rather than "a selective take on emails which were stolen." Mitchell added: "We also know that NASA have data sets that show pretty much the same trend over the past 100 years and NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) also have a data set which, I think, is all freely available." In a separate statement Saturday, UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown called on people to -30- concentrate on securing a deal at the upcoming climate talks Brown told the UK's The Guardian newspaper: "With only days to go before Copenhagen we mustn't be distracted by the behind the times anti-science, flat earth climate skeptics We know the science We know what we must We must act and close the five billion ton gap That will seal the deal." The Met Office said that by releasing the data it was continuing a policy of putting as many station temperature records as possible into the public domain The office says it's confident that the data will show that global average land temperatures have risen over the past 150 years The announcement came on the same day that thousands of people attended a march in London, UK to demand action on climate change ahead of the 12-day U.N climate conference that begins on Monday in Copenhagen The Wave protest was organized by Stop Climate Chaos, a coalition of environmental and development organizations Director of Stop Climate Chaos Ashok Sinha told CNN: "Industrialized countries are not setting ambitious enough targets for carbon reduction "If you look at the level the UK is talking about, it amounts to a reduction of 30 percent by 2020 If we did that, we'd still only have a 50-50 chance at best of keeping global climate change under the dangerous threshold of two degrees Celsius." Sinha said that many scientists are indicating that emissions need to be cut by around 40 percent and he urged the UK government to show leadership in cutting carbon emissions 本本 Video 本本: http://www.cnn.com/2009/TECH/science/12/05/climate.data met.office/index.html -31- The business of climate: A look to technology By Kevin Voigt, CNN November 14, 2009 Updated 0742 GMT (1542 HKT) STORY HIGHLIGHTS • Climate change a key topic discussed at APEC economic summit • Analysts differ on effectiveness of alarmist environmental strategies • Clean technology will be key in effort against global warming, experts say Singapore (CNN) Tim Flannery believes the future peace and stability of the world rides on action at next month's United Nations Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen "Really, Copenhagen is really a question between peace and prosperity versus war and chaos," Flannery, chairman of the Copenhagen Climate Council, told delegates at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation CEO Summit on Saturday "Food security, water security, mass migration and political instability" are at risk if the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere isn't mitigated, he said Bjorn Lomborg, director of the similarly named Copenhagen Consensus Center, has a very different view not about the potential consequences of climate change, but about the "scary stories" approach of Flannery and others He says the "end of days" approach is ineffective because the projections of potential damage so widely vary with ocean levels this century projected to rise anywhere from 18 centimeters to six meters "Panic is a pretty poor way to respond, which results in poor policies which don't get enacted," Lomborg told APEC delegates "If you make the wrong policy decisions, you don't fix the problem and you waste much money." Flannery, author of "The Weather Makers," said that climate models show that 80 percent chance in the next 100 years will be "moderate to severe," whereas there is a 10 percent chance on either end that "nothing will happen" or there will be "catastrophic consequences." "To quote Rupert Murdoch, 'You've got to give the planet the benefit of the doubt'," Flannery said He argues that the opportunity for businesses and investors to get on the ground floor of new green technology is now "Some may want to wait for the discount factor (of investing in established technology) but I liken it to being told you have five years to live you buy the medicine now, or you wait four years for the price of the medicine to go down?" Flannery said -32- "Business is the entity that is going to much of the heavy lifting toward a clean energy environment," Flannery said Lomborg, author of the book "Cool It: The Skeptical Environmentalist's Guide to Global Warming," believes the cap-and-trade approach favored by Flannery and others is doomed to failure Under this plan, governments cap total emissions and require pricey permits and hefty fines for emissions Industry finds ways to reduce emissions to decrease costs and with leftover polluting allocations sell to the highest bidder on the open market The European Union has been at the forefront of cap-and-trade policy  Accounting is growth industry  'Protectionism' the bogey at APEC  In-depth: APEC Lomborg doesn't believe cap-and-trade will work because of the past failures of agreements in Rio de Janeiro in 1992 and in Kyoto in 1997, and predicts "accounting tricks" will ultimately hobble its effectiveness Lomborg said his group had 31 top environmental economists evaluate the most cost effective ways to reduce global warming A stop-gap measure could be "geo-engineering" a solution by seeding marine clouds to reflect more light "That could avoid 100 years of warming for $9 billion, but that's a band-aid approach," he said Ultimately, both agree new clean energy technology is the only permanent solution to climate change "We will never succeed in making dirty energy clean and inexpensive," Lomborg said -33- 本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本 〔〔〔〔:2009/12/07 10:45 戴戴戴 〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔 12 〔 〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔 192 〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔 〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔 〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔 〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔 90%〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔 〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔 〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔 〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔 〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔 〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔 16〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔 22〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔 〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔 〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔 〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔 -34- 本本本本本本本本 2050 本本本本本本本 本 〔〔〔〔:2009/12/08 14:05 〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔 〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔 2050 〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔 1990 〔〔〔〔 〔〔〔 60%〔(〔〔〔〔〔) 〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔 190 〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔 〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔 80 〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔 〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔(8 〔)〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔 〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔 〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔 〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔 102 〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔 2050 〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔 1990 〔〔〔〔〔〔 60%〔 〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔 2005 〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔 〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔 2040 〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔 〔 30 〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔 -35- 本本本本本本(assignment questions) 〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔 〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔 〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔 〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔〔 -36- -37- ... implications for the climate system and the global economy Using PwC's global long-term economic growth and energy consumption model, the study derives plausible annual carbon budgets and carbon intensity... out an international treaty on climate change -24- Read the CNN special report on an Alaska town "on the brink." Most of the talk at the United Nations Climate Change Conference will focus on cutting... emissions absolutely, most argue it is a significant step in the right direction "China will not repeat traditional path of growth of developed nations of high emissions, high energy consumption