Dynamic Modeling and Econometrics in Economics and Finance 22 Herbert Dawid Karl F. Doerner Gustav Feichtinger Peter M. Kort Andrea Seidl Editors Dynamic Perspectives on Managerial Decision Making Essays in Honor of Richard F Hartl Dynamic Modeling and Econometrics in Economics and Finance Volume 22 Editors Stefan Mittnik Ludwig Maximillian University Munich Munich, Germany Willi Semmler Bielefeld University Bielefeld, Germany and New School for Social Research New York, USA More information about this series at http://www.springer.com/series/5859 Herbert Dawid • Karl F Doerner • Gustav Feichtinger • Peter M Kort • Andrea Seidl Editors Dynamic Perspectives on Managerial Decision Making Essays in Honor of Richard F Hartl 123 Editors Herbert Dawid Department of Business Administration and Economics and Center for Mathematical Economics Bielefeld University Bielefeld, Germany Karl F Doerner Department of Business Administration University of Vienna Vienna, Austria Gustav Feichtinger Institute of Statistics and Mathematical Methods in Economics Vienna University of Technology Vienna, Austria Peter M Kort Department of Econometrics and Operations Research & CentER Tilburg University Tilburg, The Netherlands Andrea Seidl Department of Business Administration University of Vienna Vienna, Austria ISSN 1566-0419 ISSN 2363-8370 (electronic) Dynamic Modeling and Econometrics in Economics and Finance ISBN 978-3-319-39118-2 ISBN 978-3-319-39120-5 (eBook) DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-39120-5 Library of Congress Control Number: 2016945568 © Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2016 This work is subject to copyright All rights are reserved by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, express or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made Printed on acid-free paper This Springer imprint is published by Springer Nature The registered company is Springer International Publishing AG Switzerland Contents Introduction Herbert Dawid, Karl F Doerner, Gustav Feichtinger, Peter M Kort, and Andrea Seidl Part I Economic Dynamics Dynamic Drug Policy: Optimally Varying the Mix of Treatment, Price-Raising Enforcement, and Primary Prevention Over Time Jonathan P Caulkins and Gernot Tragler Economics of Talent: Dynamics and Multiplicity of Equilibria Yuri Yegorov, Franz Wirl, Dieter Grass, and Andrea Seidl Skiba Phenomena in Markov Perfect Equilibria of Asymmetric Differential Games Herbert Dawid, Michel Y Keoula, and Peter M Kort 11 37 63 A Dynamic Advertising Game with Market Growth Steffen Jørgensen and Simon Pierre Sigué 77 Managerial Delegation in a Dynamic Renewable Resource Oligopoly Luca Lambertini 93 Optimal Growth with Polluting Waste and Recycling 109 Raouf Boucekkine and Fouad El Ouardighi Handling the Complexity of Predator-Prey Systems: Managerial Decision Making in Urban Economic Development and Sustainable Harvesting 127 Birgit Bednar-Friedl, Doris A Behrens, Dieter Grass, Olivia Koland, and Ulrike Leopold-Wildburger On Optimal Harvesting in Age-Structured Populations 149 Anton O Belyakov and Vladimir M Veliov v vi Contents Maximizing Female Labor Force Participation in a Stationary Population 167 Elke Moser, Alexia Prskawetz, Gustav Feichtinger, and Bilal Barakat Multiplicity of Balanced Growth Paths in an Endogenous Growth Model with Elastic Labor Supply 189 Gerhard Sorger Fiscal and Monetary Policies in a Monetary Union: Conflict or Cooperation? 201 Dmitri Blueschke and Reinhard Neck On the Optimal Trade-Off Between Fire Power and Intelligence in a Lanchester Model 217 A.J Novák, G Feichtinger, and G Leitmann Drivers of the Change in Social Welfare in European Countries 233 Mikuláš Luptáˇcik, Eduard Nežinský, and Martin Lábaj Part II Firm Management Organizational Nimbleness and Operational Policies: The Case of Optimal Control of Maintenance Under Uncertainty 253 Ali Dogramaci and Suresh Sethi Safety Stocks in Centralized and Decentralized Supply Chains Under Different Types of Random Yields 279 Karl Inderfurth Dynamic Pricing Under Economic Ordering and Strategic Customers with Forward Buying and Postponement 301 Stefan Minner The Effect of Remanufacturability of End-of-Use Returns on the Optimal Intertemporal Production Decisions of a Newsvendor 313 Marc Reimann Comparing Modeling Approaches for the Multi-Level Capacitated Lot-Sizing and Scheduling Problem 333 Christian Almeder Hybrid Metaheuristics for Project Scheduling and Staffing, Considering Project Interruptions and Labor Contracts 349 Thomas Felberbauer, Karl F Doerner, and Walter J Gutjahr From Incomplete Information to Strict Rankings: Methods to Exploit Probabilistic Preference Information 379 Rudolf Vetschera Contents vii The After-Effects of Fear-Inducing Public Service Announcements 395 Udo Wagner, Claus Ebster, Lisa Eberhardsteiner, and Madeleine Prenner Decision Support for Strategic Disaster Management: First Release of a Wiki 413 Marion Rauner, Helmut Niessner, Lisa Sasse, Kristina Tomic, Karen Neville, Andrew Pope, and Sheila O’Riordan Overview of Optimization Problems in Electric Car-Sharing System Design and Management 441 Georg Brandstätter, Claudio Gambella, Markus Leitner, Enrico Malaguti, Filippo Masini, Jakob Puchinger, Mario Ruthmair, and Daniele Vigo The Golf Tourist Problem 473 Fabien Tricoire, Sophie N Parragh, and Margaretha Gansterer Twenty Years of Vehicle Routing in Vienna 491 Karl F Doerner, Alexander Kiefer, and David Wolfinger Part III Appendix Achilles and the Theory of Games 523 Alexander Mehlmann Introduction Herbert Dawid, Karl F Doerner, Gustav Feichtinger, Peter M Kort, and Andrea Seidl In the Introduction to their seminal 1986 book on Optimal Control Feichtinger and Hartl paraphrase Joseph Schumpeter’s famous quote that dealing with capitalist economies without taking into account dynamics is like Hamlet without the prince of Denmark A similar statement certainly applies also to the analysis of firm behavior Dynamic aspects are of crucial importance for almost any area of managerial decision making Firms are exposed to changing market environments and technological landscapes and can actively influence these developments among others through marketing activities or by investing in the development of product innovations or of new technologies On an operational level firms face challenging dynamic planning problems when designing their production processes, supply chains and distribution logistics All these different dynamic challenges gave rise to highly active areas of research, but there are very few scholars who have been H Dawid Department of Business Administration and Economics and Center for Mathematical Economics, Bielefeld University, Bielefeld, Germany e-mail: hdawid@wiwi.uni-bielefeld.de K.F Doerner • A Seidl Department of Business Administration, University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria e-mail: karl.doerner@univie.ac.at; andrea.seidl@univie.ac.at G Feichtinger Institute of Statistics and Mathematical Methods in Economics, Vienna University of Technology, Vienna, Austria e-mail: gustav.feichtinger@tuwien.ac.at P.M Kort Department of Econometrics and Operations Research & CentER, Tilburg University, Tilburg, The Netherlands Department of Economics, University of Antwerp, Antwerp, Belgium e-mail: Kort@uvt.nl © Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2016 H Dawid et al (eds.), Dynamic Perspectives on Managerial Decision Making, Dynamic Modeling and Econometrics in Economics and Finance 22, DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-39120-5_1 H Dawid et al able to make contributions to research on managerial decision making in several of these operational and strategic domains Richard F Hartl is one of them His highly influential research covers domains ranging from daily operational challenges like Vehicle Routing and Scheduling (e.g Bullnheimer et al 1999a; Kovacs et al 2015) to dynamic advertising strategies (e.g Feichtinger et al 1994) and strategic decisions of firms like those concerning capital investments in different technologies (e.g Feichtinger et al 2006) However, not only the breadth of the areas of research to which Richard Hartl has contributed is impressive, but also the methodological diversity of his work Most notably, his work bridges two methodological camps which in Economics and Management typically are strongly separated: those working with dynamic optimization methods, like optimal control theory, mainly relying on analytical findings and those employing meta-heuristics, mainly relying on computational analysis Richard Hartl has not only heavily used both approaches in his work, but has also made important methodological contributions With respect to optimal control theory he has for example provided an influential result on the monotonicity of optimal paths in problems with one-dimensional state-space (Hartl 1987) and has been among the pioneers systematically studying optimal solutions in higherdimensional control problems with multiple stable steady states (e.g Haunschmied et al 2003) Furthermore, books and surveys co-authored by Richard Hartl (e.g Feichtinger and Hartl 1986; Hartl et al 1995) have contributed strongly to the diffusion of advanced optimal control techniques in Economics and Management In the area of meta-heuristics he has contributed to the development of improved versions of algorithms, in particular ant systems (e.g Bullnheimer et al 1999b), variable neighbourhood search (e.g Polacek et al 2004) and adaptive large neighbourhood search (e.g Kovacs et al 2012) for rich vehicle routing problems Published research is only one channel through which Richard F Hartl had impact on the profession The second important channel is personal interaction as supervisor, co-author and colleague The size of the network of co-authors (to which also all five Editors of this book belong) and the impressive number of former students or assistants of Richard Hartl who have launched a successful academic career clearly illustrates that also in this respect he has been highly effective The aim of this volume is to pay tribute to these achievements of Richard F Hartl It collects contributions from co-authors, (present or former) colleagues and friends which are as versatile as the work of Richard Hartl both with respect to topics and methodology The common denominator of the papers is that (almost) all of them deal with dynamic problems in Economics and Management The volume is divided in the two parts, • Economic Dynamics • Firm Management which are distinguished according to the level of aggregation of the phenomenon under consideration, covering the aggregate level and the firm level 512 K.F Doerner et al List of Acronyms 2D 2E-VRP 2L-CVRP 3D 3L-CVRP ACO ACS ALNS ARC AS B&B B&C CARP ConVRP CTP CVRP CVRPRB D-Ants DARP DP DSDARP DVRP E-FSMVRPTW Two Dimensional Adaptive -Constraint Method Two-Echelon Vehicle Routing Problem Two-Dimensional Loading Capacitated Vehicle Routing Problem Three Dimensional Adaptive -Constraint Method Three-Dimensional Loading Capacitated Vehicle Routing Problem Ant Colony Optimization Ant Colony System Adaptive Large Neighborhood Search Austrian Red Cross Ant System Branch-and-Bound Branch and Cut Capacitated Arc Routing Problem Consistent Vehicle Routing Problem Covering Tour Problem Capacitated Vehicle Routing Problem Capacitated Vehicle Routing Problem with Route Balancing Decomposition Ants Dial-A-Ride Problem Dynamic Programming Dynamic and Stochastic Dial-A-Ride Problem Dynamic Vehicle Routing Problems Electric Fleet Size and Mix Vehicle Routing Problem with Time Windows and Recharging Stations GenConVRP Generalized Consistent Vehicle Routing Problem GVNS General Variable Neighborhood Search HDARP Dial-A-Ride Problem with Heterogeneous Users and Vehicles HDARPD Heterogeneous Dial-A-Ride Problem with Driver-Related Constraints IRP Inventory Routing Problem LNS Large Neighborhood Search MA Memetic Algorithm MDLNS Multi-Directional Large Neighborhood Search MDVRP Multi-Depot Vehicle Routing Problem MDVRPTW Multi-Depot Vehicle Routing Problem with Time Windows MIP Mixed Integer Programming MO-DARP Multi-Objective Dial-A-Ride Problem MOGenConVRP Multi-Objective Generalized Consistent Vehicle Routing Problem MPA Multiple Plan Approach MP-VRP Multi-Pile Vehicle Routing Problem MSA Multiple Scenario Approach MuPOPTW Multi-Period Orienteering Problem with Multiple Time Windows MVPPDP Multi Vehicle Profitable Pickup and Delivery Problem NSGA-II Nondominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II OP Orienteering Problem OVRP Open Vehicle Routing Problem OVRPTW Open Vehicle Routing Problem with Time Windows PDP Pickup and Delivery Problem PDTSP Pickup and Delivery Travelling Salesman Problem Pickup and Delivery Vehicle Routing Problem PDVRP PR Path Relinking PTP Profitable Tour Problem Twenty Years of Vehicle Routing in Vienna PTSP PVRP PVRP-IF SA SbAS SDVRP SRLTP S-VNS TALNS TDVRPTW TOP TS TSP VLNS VNS VRP VRPB VRPBTW VRPmiTW VRPPD VRPTW 513 Periodic Travelling Salesman Problem Periodic Vehicle Routing Problem Periodic Vehicle Routing Problem with Intermediate Facilities Simulated Annealing Savings-based Ant System Split Delivery Vehicle Routing Problem Single Route Lateral Transshipment Problem Stochastic Variable Neighborhood Search Template-Based Adaptive Large Neighborhood Search Time-Dependent Vehicle Routing Problem with Time Windows Team Orienteering Problem Tabu Search Travelling Salesman Problem Very Large Neighborhood Search Variable Neighborhood Search Vehicle Routing Problems Vehicle Routing Problem with Backhauls Vehicle Routing Problem with Backhauls and Time Windows Vehicle Routing Problem with Multiple Interdependent Time Windows Vehicle Routing Problems with Pickup and Deliveries Vehicle Routing Problem with Time Windows References Archetti, C., Doerner, K F., & Tricoire, F (2013) A heuristic algorithm for the free newspaper delivery problem European Journal of Operational Research, 230(2), 245–257 Balseiro, S R., Loiseau, I., & Ramonet, J (2011) An ant colony algorithm hybridized with insertion heuristics for the time dependent vehicle routing problem with time windows Computers and Operations Research, 38(6), 954–966 Bektas, T., Repoussis, P P., & 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As his former roommate in Vienna I could easily enumerate all his countless weak points However, due to the lack of blackmailing tendencies, I will rather remain silent by flatteringly describing him as a profane variant of Achilles, the son of Peleus Up to now the story of Achilles and his exposure did definitely not belong to the canon of education in mathematics or even business administration and one could argue that its unexpected popping out at the centralized Austrian school leaving examination would certainly generate more causalities than the Trojan war as a whole This follows from the deplorable fact, that the reception of heroic sagas has been left, in a quite uncritical manner, mainly to linguists, philosophers, and mythologists, instead of entrusting it to the only discipline fit to reveal the truth behind myths: mathematics Each reader, inclined to fully understand the narrative of Achilles and his exposure without using a Latin dictionary, will either have to rely on Wikipedia (searching for “Achilles on Skyros”) or abandon all prosaic versions by following the A Mehlmann ( ) TU Wien, Institute of Statistics and Mathematical Methods in Economics, Wiedner Hauptstr / E105, 1040 Wien, Austria e-mail: alexander.mehlmann@tuwien.ac.at © Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2016 H Dawid et al (eds.), Dynamic Perspectives on Managerial Decision Making, Dynamic Modeling and Econometrics in Economics and Finance 22, DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-39120-5_27 523 524 A Mehlmann interpretation subsequently offered by a lighthearted and polyglot (German and English) piece of poetry, the validity of which is finally and convincingly proved by means of a game theoretic model Hyginus Mythographus FABULA XCVI ACHILLES Thetis Nereis cum sciret Achillem filium suum, quem ex Peleo habebat, si ad Troiam expugnandam isset, periturum, commendavit eum in insulam Scyron ad Lycomedem regem, quem ille inter virgines filias habitu femineo servabat nomine mutato; nam virgines Pyrrham nominarunt, quoniam capillis flavis fuit et Graece rufum pyrrhon dicitur Achivi autem cum rescissent ibi eum occultari, ad regem Lycomeden oratores miserunt qui rogarent ut eum adjutorium Danais mitteret Rex cum negaret apud se esse, potestatem eis fecit ut in regia quaererent Qui cum intellegere non possent quis esset eorum, Ulixes in regio vestibulo munera feminea posuit, in quibus clipeum et hastam, et subito tubicinem jussit canere armorumque crepitum et clamorem fieri iussit Achilles hostem arbitrans adesse vestem muliebrem dilaniavit atque clipeum et hastam arripuit Ex hoc est cognitus suasque operas Argivis promisit et milites Myrmidones Die Entlarvung des Achilles1 Im ganzen Universe Kennt man die rechte Ferse Als meinen wunden Punkt Dem Sohne des Laertes Fiel ein was Unerhörtes Danach als Hinterlist Es hat stets Mama Thetis, Was halt a patzn Gfrett is, Vom Tod im Krieg geunkt Er brachte von Mykene Die beispiellos mondäne Gewandung aus Batist Am Hof des Lykomedes Vernaschte ich schon jedes Von seinen Töchterlein Mit Fibeln disponibel Aus Elfenbein (sensibel Erjagt in Côte d’Ivoire) Im Frauenoberkleide Aus Wolle, nicht aus Seide, Da steckt’ ich nur zum Schein Von Troja bis nach Delphi Fehlt wohl in keinem Selfie Ein solches Accessoire Als die Achäer kamen, Da trafen sie nur Damen Und keinen Sagenheld Wenn Mädchen es erblicken Ob Fürstinnen, ob Zicken Schrei’n sie im Modewahn This lyric gem belongs to an apocryphal collection of mathematical ballads: Alexander Mehlmann, Mathematische Moritaten, CreateSpace Independent Publishing Platform, 2016 Achilles and the Theory of Games 525 Bei Schlachtlärm kreischen Misses (Das wusste auch Ulysses) Und geben Fersengeld Gewillt dies anzubringen, Ließ ich den Kehlklopf klingen Im schallenden Päan Die Griechen kehrten wieder Mit Weibertand und Flieder Samt Waffengarnitur Jedoch die blöden Miezen Im Glauben mich zu schützen, Vollführten keinen Ton Bestrebt mich einzukreisen, Taucht auf am kalten Eisen Ein Fingerabdruck nur Als Spottgestalt der Mode Besingt mich kein Rhapsode Dann bliesen sie Fanfaren, Um endlich zu erfahren Wer nun Achilles sei Drum auf nach Ilion! Doch keine von den Schnecken Griff nach den Eisenstecken Und tanzte aus der Reih The exposure of Achilles2 Aside from sex appeal I also have a heel Well known as my weak spot Then Penelope’s man Designed a cunning plan To catch the guy disguised As mother Thetis said, “Live as a girl instead; In Troy it’s bad to rot.” He brought as dastard lure A piece of fine couture In Argos highly prized At Lykomedes’ court I did myself comport By sleeping with his girls Emblazoned with a brooch Of ivory (to poach In Côte d’Ivoire for free) I loved it just to pose Disguised in womens’ clothes And wearing costly pearls Each maiden would shout out (In madness without doubt) For this accessory Fluent in ancient Greek, Ulysses came to seek A hero for the war According to this thought I started all for naught An ancient battle roar A roughly adequate translation of the German language poem printed on the previous page (see: Alexander Mehlmann, Mathematische Moritaten, CreateSpace Independent Publishing Platform, 2016) 526 A Mehlmann The only thing he found Confined to this compound: Nine girls and nothing more But echo came there none (Ulysses having fun Rolled laughing on the floor.) He briskly came then back With womens’ bric a brac Concealing sword and spear A hero to protect, That’s why chicks did defect Oppressing any sound Since his detection test Needs choices to be guessed And anything to fear To quit as laughing stock, Let’s take the Trojan walk A blare of clarion (A bit Wagnerian) Did scare the pants of all And get my mortal wound! But no one from the nine Did as a hoplite shine By answering the call In the original variant of the story (see Hyginus Mythographus for a short Latin summary) the reason why Achilles is exposed seems to contradict any game theoretic rule Disguised as one of the daughters of king Lykomedes, Achilles is revealing itself to Odysseus, by picking a weapon from the gifts offered, as soon as the alarming sound of a clarion, indicating danger, is heard This behavior is, however, counterintuitive Achilles’ strategy should not in fact be distinguishable from the presumed behaviour of the king’s daughters Thus the cunning plan of Odysseus (Ulysses for the Latin aficionado) is from the first doomed to failure The second variant, which is both more erudite and poetical valuable than the original story, can be consistently modelled as an extensive game (see Fig above) Ulysses will only be able to expose Achilles, if his behaviour is fully distinguishable from the reaction shown by the daughters of Lykomedes Since any collusion between our hero and the Lykomädis (i.e Lykomedes-girls) is strictly excluded, the only reasonable equilibrium will let Achilles oscillate his vocal fold (P) with probability 0:5, whereas the chicks will equiprobable remain silent (S) Since both coordination and repetition are excluded, the pure equilibria P; P/ and S; S/, which would be preferred by standard textbooks of game theory, have to remain out for consideration Achilles and the Theory of Games 527 Ulysses P S P Ulysses Lykomă adis e (−1, −1, −1) v (+1, +2, +1) e (−1, −2, +1) v (+1, +1, −2) Achilles Ulysses e (−1, −2, +2) v (+1, +1, +1) e (−1, −1, −2) v (+1, +2, −1) S P S Ulysses Fig Achilles and his game tree Final Comment Due to the lack of space and the banishment of this contribution to the appendix, all necessary deductions will remain undone We will leave them over as a last homework assignment to Richard Hartl, who is enjoyned to work out the details in ancient Greek and to deliver the results at his retirement festivity ... gernot.tragler@tuwien.ac.at © Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2016 H Dawid et al (eds.), Dynamic Perspectives on Managerial Decision Making, Dynamic Modeling and Econometrics in Economics and Finance 22,... make a decision Decision makers are often not able to provide precise preference information, which is required to solve a multicriteria decision problem Thus, many methods of decision making. .. Decision Making, Dynamic Modeling and Econometrics in Economics and Finance 22, DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-39120-5_1 H Dawid et al able to make contributions to research on managerial decision making in