TABLE OF CONTENTS I Introduction of The Balance of Payments II Overview of Economy in VietNam and HongKong 2 1 Overview of VietNam’s Economy 2 2 Overview of HongKong’s Economy III Balance of Payments of VietNam IV Balance of Payments of Hong Kong V Some features of The Balance of Payment between Viet Nam and Hong Kong 4 1 Import and export between Vietnam and Hong Kong in March 2020 Vietnam trade surplus 4 2 FDI capital from Hong Kong poured into Vietnam VI Solutions for Viet Nam and Hong Kong’s.
TABLE OF CONTENTS I Introduction of The Balance of Payments II Overview of Economy in VietNam and HongKong 2.1 Overview of VietNam’s Economy 2.2 Overview of HongKong’s Economy III Balance of Payments of VietNam IV Balance of Payments of Hong Kong V Some features of The Balance of Payment between Viet Nam and Hong Kong 4.1 Import and export between Vietnam and Hong Kong in March 2020: Vietnam trade surplus 4.2 FDI capital from Hong Kong poured into Vietnam VI Solutions for Viet Nam and Hong Kong’s Balance of Payments I Introduction of The Balance of Payments The balance of payments is a summary statement in which, in principle, all transactions of residents of one country with residents of all other countries are recorded for a specific period, usually a calendar year The main purpose of the balance of payments is to inform the government of the international position of the nation and to help it in its formulation of monetary, fiscal, and trade policies Governments also regularly consult the balance of payments of important trade partners in making policy decisions The information contained in a nation’s balance of payments is also indispensable to banks, firms, and individuals directly or indirectly involved in international trade and finance There are three components of balance of payment: current account, capital account, and financial account The total of the current account must balance with the total of capital and financial accounts in ideal situations In this essay, I refer to the balance of payments of Vietnam and Hong Kong From that, it is possible to infer the connection of these two countries in terms of balance of payments as well as offer some solutions for both countries II Overview of Economy in VietNam and HongKong 2.1 Overview of VietNam’s Economy The development of Vietnam over the past 30 years is remarkable Economic and political reforms since 1986 have spurred economic development, rapidly transforming Vietnam from one of the poorest countries in the world to a low-middle-income country From 2002 to 2018, GDP per capita increased 2.7 times, reaching over US$2,700 in 2019, with more than 45 million people escaping poverty The poverty rate dropped sharply from more than 70% to less than 6% ($3.2/day at purchasing power parity) The majority of the remaining poor in Vietnam are ethnic minorities, accounting for 86% Due to extensive economic integration, Vietnam's economy was heavily affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, but also showed considerable resilience GDP growth is estimated at 2.9% in 2020 Vietnam is one of the few countries in the world with positive economic growth, but the pandemic has left long-term impacts on households - income of about 45% of surveyed households decreased in January 2021 compared to January 2020 The economy is forecast to grow by 6.6% in 2021 if Vietnam well controls the spread of the virus- At the same time, export-oriented manufacturing industries performed well, and domestic demand recovered strongly Vietnam is witnessing rapid changes in population and social structure, rapid growth and industrialization Vietnam's population has reached 96.5 million in 2019 (from about 60 million in 1986) and is expected to increase to 120 million by 2050 According to the results of the 2019 Vietnam Census, 55, 5% of the population is under the age of 35, with an average life expectancy of nearly 76 years, higher than other countries with similar incomes in the region But the population is aging rapidly A growing middle class – currently 13% of the population and is expected to grow to 26% by 2026 Vietnam's Human Capital Index is 0.69 That means that a Vietnamese baby born today will grow up to be 69% more productive than the same child with adequate education and health care This is higher than the average for the East Asia Pacific region and lower middle-income countries Although Vietnam's Human Capital Index increased from 0.66 to 0.69 between 2010 and 2020 Vietnam, disparities still exist within the country, especially for ethnic minorities Over the past 30 years, the provision of basic services has seen many positive changes People's ability to access infrastructure has been significantly improved As of 2016, 99% of the population used electricity for lighting, compared with 14% in 1993 Rural access to clean water has also improved, from 17% in 1993 to 70% in 2016, while the rate in urban areas is over 95% However, in recent years, Vietnam's infrastructure investment as a percentage of GDP is among the lowest in the ASEAN region This creates challenges for the continued development of the modern infrastructure services needed for the next phase of growth (Vietnam ranks 89th out of 137 countries in terms of infrastructure quality) 2.2 Overview of HongKong’s Economy The Hong Kong economy is a developed capitalist economy built on a market economy, low taxes, and little economic intervention by the government This is an important financial and commercial center of many corporate headquarters of the Asia-Pacific region Hong Kong's economy is primarily service based The share of this sector in its GDP is up to 90% In the past, manufacturing was the most important sector of the economy as it industrialized after World War II With exports as the driving force, the economy grew at a rapid pace an annual average of 8.9% in the 1970s The region experienced a rapid transition to a service economy in the 1980s, when growth reached 7.7% per year year Much of the manufacturing activity was transferred to mainland China during this period, and industry now accounts for only 9% of the economy As the land grew to become a financial center, growth slowed to 2.7% per year in the 1990s Along with Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan, Hong Kong is known as one of the Four Asian Tigers due to its high growth rate and rapid industrialization during the period from the 1960s to the 1990s In 1998, because of the Asian financial crisis, the economy shrank by 5.3% After that, the economy recovered with a growth rate of 10% in 2000, although deflation persisted In 2003, Hong Kong's economy was severely affected by the SARS epidemic, making the growth rate only 2.3% The resurgence in domestic and external demand led to a strong resurgence the following year as falling costs boosted the region's export competitiveness The 68-month period of deflation ended in mid-2004 In 2006, Hong Kong's GDP ranked 40th in the world with a value of 253.1 billion dollars GDP per capita ranks 14th at $36,500, higher than Canada, Japan, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom, and still much higher than China III Viet Nam’s Balance of Payments 2.1 Viet Nam’s Balance of Payments (2006 - 2009) I would like to specifically mention Vietnam's balance of payments after 2006, which is also the time when Vietnam officially joined the WTO Entering the 21st century, Vietnam's economy has had many very important changes, especially on 11/07/2006 Vietnam officially became a member of the World Trade Organization - WTO, has affirmed Vietnam's position in the international arena That changed our economy significantly, so before that, from 2001 to 2006, how was Vietnam's economy, specifically Vietnam's balance of internationalpayments? Table 2.1: The Balance of Payments of Viet Nam (2006 - 2009) Unit: million USD 2006 2007 2008 2009 A Current Account -164 -7.092 -10.023 -6.608 -2.776 -10.438 -12.783 -7.607 Exports (FOB) 39.826 48.561 62.685 57.096 Imports (FOB) 42.602 50.999 75.468 64.703 -8 -894 -950 -2.421 Receipts 5.100 6.030 7.006 5.766 Payments 5.108 6.924 7.956 8.817 4.049 6.430 7.311 6.448 Private Transfers (Net) 3.800 6.180 6.804 6.018 Official Transfers (Net) 249 250 507 430 -1.429 -2.190 -4.401 -3.028 Receipts 668 1.166 1.357 753 Payments 2.097 3.356 5.758 3.781 -1.437 -3.084 -5.354 -5.449 Receipts 5.766 7.196 8.363 6.519 Payments 7.205 10.280 13.714 11.960 B Financial and Capital Account 3.088 17.730 12.341 8.755 Direct Investment 2.315 6.156 9.279 6.900 2.400 6.700 9.579 7600 85 184 300 700 1.025 2.269 992 4.473 Disbursements 2.260 3.640 2.441 6.140 Scheduled Amortization 1.235 1.371 1.449 1.667 -30 79 1.971 266 Portfolio 1.313 6.243 -578 -71 10 Money&Deposits -1.535 2.623 677 -4.803 C Errors and Omissions 1.390 -439 -1.046 -9.022 Goods Services Transfers (Net) Investment Income (Net) Other FDI Vietnam's FDI abroad Medium and Long Term Loans Short Term Loans OVERALL BALANCE 4.322 (in surplus) 10.199 (in surplus) 473 (in surplus) -0.076 (in deposit) Source: SBV, IMF, WB staff calculations Figure 1: Goods Exports/Imports FOB is the factory delivery price In 2006 we had a trade deficit of 2.776 million USD (because of negative signs); By 2007, when we joined the WTO, the trade deficit increased to 10,438 million, nearly million more than the previous year The number of 2009 is 7.607 million Goods Exports: Goods Imports: Import and export of services (Services Receipts/Payments): including mainly tourism, study… The figure is also negative and tends to increase over time; in 2009 the figure was 2,421 million USD According to the data, we see that our remittance increases over time In 2006 it was 3.8 million, then in 2009 it was 6.018 million Remittance is an important way to help offset the trade deficit Figure 2: Vietnam's balance of payments deficit in 2009 is not too serious, it is forecasted that the balance of payments deficit this year is only about 0.5 million USD, this is not a large level compared to the figure of over 24 million USD in foreign exchange reserves of the State Bank at present The balance of payments imbalance is reflected in the current balance and capital account By the end of 2009, Vietnam's balance of payments was facing great pressure from a deficit of nearly 3.6 million USD The situation seems to be getting worse because the evidence given by the representative of the IMF in Vietnam does not consider the approximately million USD of trade deficit in the last two months (July and August) 2.2 Viet Nam’s Balance of Payments (Q1 - 2021) Table 2.2: The Balance of Payments of Viet Nam (Q1 - 2021) Unit: million USD Q1 - 2021 A Current Account 350 Goods 5.849 Exports (FOB) 78.401 Imports (FOB) 72.507 Services Exports 869 Imports 4.977 Investment Income (Net) -4.602 Transfers (Net) 2626 SB Capital Account C Financial Account 5.284 Direct Investment 3230 FDI Vietnam's Investment abroad 3280 -50 Indirect Investment (Net) -346 Other Investment -342 Money&Deposits 2.742 D Errors and Omissions -2.198 OVERALL BALANCE 3.436 (in surplus) The Ministry of Industry and Trade said that despite being affected by the third wave of the Covid-19 epidemic, Vietnam's export turnover still maintained a high growth rate of 22% in the first quarter of 2021 This growth rate is relatively high compared to other economies in the Asian region In the first months of 2021, Vietnam continues to have a export surplus of 2.03 million USD, thereby positively supporting the current account and the overall balance of payments of the economy In the coming time, import and export activities are expected to continue to prosper thanks to the recovery of the world economy, the implementation of free trade agreements more fully and comprehensively Attracting FDI inflows, especially in the high-tech sector, achieved positive results… Global demand is improving as the world economy is entering a recovery phase thanks to the strong deployment of Covid-19 vaccine, as well as support from fiscal and monetary easing policies, thereby helping increase opportunities to promote export of goods New generation trade agreements such as: Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), Free Trade Agreement between Vietnam and the European Union (EVFTA), Free Trade Agreement The agreement between Vietnam and the United Kingdom (UK FTA) will continue to create conditions for Vietnamese goods to penetrate into partner markets with more preferential tariffs along with commitments on facilitating and reducing barriers Since the EVFTA took effect in August 2020, the growth rate of exports to the EU has gradually improved and increased by 18% in the first months of 2021 Similarly, Vietnam's export turnover to other partners Partnerships in the CPTPP Agreement also achieved high growth in the first months of 2021 such as: Canada increased by 13.7%, Australia increased by 17%, Chile increased by 25.6%, Mexico increased by 12.7%, New Zealand increased by 35,1% Export turnover to the UK market also increased by 22.1% in the first months of this year Making good use of the advantages from free trade agreements will be one of the important factors promoting Vietnam's exports in the coming time IV Hong Kong’s Balance of Payments Table 3.1: Hong Kong’s Balance of Payments (Q1-2021) Unit: $ million Q1 - 2021 A Current Account 59.841 Goods 8.677 Credit 1178.210 Debit -1169.533 Services 34.610 Credit 141.858 Debit -407.248 Primary Income 21.535 Credit 336.337 Debit -314.802 Secondary Income -4.981 Credit 3.393 Debit -8.374 B Capital Account -0.216 Credit 0.002 Debit -0.218 C Financial Account -89.133 I Financial non-reserve asset -80.917 Direct Investment 0.202 Asset -242.394 Liabilities 243.136 Portfolio Investment -16.435 Asset -49.419 Liabilities 32.984 Financial derivatives -5.658 Asset 190.414 Liabilities -196.072 Other Investment -59.026 Asset -33.316 Liabilities -25.710 II Reserve assets -8.216 D Net errors and omissions 29.418 OVERALL BALANCE OF PAYMENTS 8.216 (in surplus) Source: Data WB, IMF, GOV HongKong Hong Kong recorded a BOP surplus of $8.2 million (as a ratio of 1.2% to GDP) in the first quarter of 2021, compared with a surplus of $233.5 million (as a ratio of 32.9% to GDP) in the fourth quarter of 2020 Reserve assets correspondingly increased by the same amount ($8.2 million) in the first quarter of 2021 The current account recorded a surplus of $59.8 million (as a ratio of 8.5% to GDP) in the first quarter of 2021 This implies that Hong Kong’s savings was greater than its investment, enabling Hong Kong to accumulate external financial assets (such as equity securities or debt securities) as a buffer against global financial volatilities As against the current account deficit of $10.3 million (as a ratio of 1.6% to GDP) in the first quarter of 2020, the increase in the current account balance was mainly due to an increase in the goods balance, supplemented with an increase in the net inflow of primary income and an increase in the services surplus The goods account recorded a surplus of $8.7 million in the first quarter of 2021, as against a deficit of $48.4 million in the same quarter of 2020 This was due to a larger increase in exports of goods relative to the increase in imports of goods Over the same period, the services surplus increased to $34.6 million in the first quarter of 2021, compared with $29.1 million in the same quarter of 2020 This was due to a larger decrease in imports of services relative to the decrease in exports of services The overall balance on goods and services recorded a surplus of $43.3 million in the first quarter of 2021, as against a deficit of $19.3 million in the same quarter of 2020 The primary income inflow and outflow amounted to $336.3 million and $314.8 million respectively, thus yielding a net inflow of $21.5 million in the first quarter of 2021, compared with a net inflow of $16.0 million in the same quarter of 2020 The secondary income inflow and outflow amounted to $3.4 million and $8.4 million respectively, resulting in a net outflow of $5.0 million in the first quarter of 2021, compared with a net outflow of $7.0 million in the same quarter of 2020 In the first quarter of 2021, a small net outflow of $0.1 million was recorded in the capital account, similar to that in the fourth quarter of 2020 An overall net outflow of financial non-reserve assets amounting to $80.9 million (as a ratio of 11.6% to GDP) was recorded in the first quarter of 2021, as against an overall net inflow of $170.9 million (as a ratio of 24.1% to GDP) in the fourth quarter of 2020 The overall net outflow recorded in the first quarter of 2021 was due to net outflows of other investment, portfolio investment and cash settlement of financial derivatives Direct investment assets and liabilities increased by $242.9 million and $243.1 million respectively in the first quarter of 2021, resulting in a small net direct investment inflow of $0.2 million, compared with a net inflow of $153.4 million in the fourth quarter of 2020 Portfolio investment assets and liabilities increased by $49.4 million and $33.0 million respectively in the first quarter of 2021, resulting in a net portfolio investment outflow amounting to $16.4 million, compared with a net outflow of $321.0 million in the fourth quarter of 2020 The increase in portfolio investment assets was mainly due to the increased holdings of non-resident equity and investment fund shares by Hong Kong residents and the increased holdings of non-resident long-term debt securities by the Hong Kong banking sector, partly offset by the decreased holdings of non-resident short-term debt securities by the Hong Kong banking sector On the other hand, the increase in portfolio investment liabilities was mainly attributable to the increased holdings of resident debt securities by non-residents A net outflow of $5.7 million due to the cash settlement of financial derivatives was recorded in the first quarter of 2021, as against a net inflow of $1.9 million in the fourth quarter of 2020 V Some features of The Balance of Payment between Viet Nam and Hong Kong 4.1 Import and export between Vietnam and Hong Kong in March 2020: Vietnam trade surplus According to statistics of the General Department of Customs, Vietnam's goods exports to Hong Kong reached 656.5 million USD in March 2020, bringing the total import-export turnover between the two countries to $234.99 million Import turnover of goods from Hong Kong reached 93.8 million USD Chart 4.1: Exports & Imports between Viet Nam and Hong Kong (03/2020 and the Accumulation of three first month of 2020) Accumulation from the beginning of the year to the end of March, the total two-way turnover reached 1.86 billion USD Vietnam's trade surplus to Hong Kong is more than 1.6 billion USD; export turnover is nearly times larger than imports Table 4.1: Top 10 of type of Vietnamese goods exported to Hong Kong in March 2020 and accumulated in the first three months of 2020: KINDS OF GOODS Exports in 03/2020 Quantity (Ton) Value (USD) Accumulation of first months of 2020 Quantity (Ton) Value (USD) Computers, electronic products and components 297.527.713 686.001.623 Cell phone and components 173.665.822 406.360.748 Other machinery, equipment, tools and spare parts 57.655.925 146.306.953 Textiles 19.390.329 52.067.954 Cameras, camcorders and accessories 14.255.441 58.436.260 Materials for textile, garment, leather, shoes 12.481.609 33.064.127 Footwear 9.761.517 33.979.640 Seafood 8.080.504 27.965.481 Products from plastic 6.222.223 15.140.658 Yarns, textile yarns of all kinds 2.007 5.988.396 5.813 17.487.619 Source: Data WB, IMF, Vietnam State Bank Table 4.2: Top 10 of type of Vietnamese goods imported from Hong Kong in March 2020 and accumulated in the first three months of 2020: KINDS OF GOODS Imports in 03/2020 Quantity (Ton) Value (USD) Accumulation of first months of 2020 Quantity (Ton) Value (USD) Materials for textile, garment, leather, shoes 18.940.979 Other machinery, equipment, tools, and spare parts 17.903.314 Computers, electronic products, and components 11.630.806 35.183.005 Fabrics of all kinds 9.535.584 24.052.305 Gems, precious metals and products 6.428.649 19.802.044 Iron and steel scrap Products from plastic 41.178.666 40.355.734 23.794 6.417.548 95.759 4.994.617 25.939.116 9.274.268 3.943.059 Paper products 7.719.157 Cell phones and accessories 2.938.153 9.846.303 Chemical products 1.415.610 3.352.711 Source: Data WB, IMF, Vietnam State Bank 4.2 FDI capital from Hong Kong poured into Vietnam Updated data shows that investment from Hong Kong increased 3.94 times over the same period in 2018 According to a report of the Foreign Investment Department, Ministry of Planning, and Investment, in the first 10 months of 2019, the total newly registered capital, adjusted and contributed capital to buy shares by foreign investors reached 29.11 billion USD., up 4.3% over the same period in 2018 Realized capital of foreign direct investment projects is estimated at 16.21 billion USD, up 7.4% over the same period in 2018 4.2.1 Contributing capital and buying shares have increased sharply As of October 20, 2019, there were 3,094 new projects granted investment registration certificates, an increase of 25.9% in the number of projects over the same period in 2018 The total newly registered capital reached 12.83 billion USD, equaling 85.4% over the same period in 2018 Regarding adjusted capital, there were 1,145 projects registered to adjust investment capital, up 20% over the same period in 2018 The total adjusted registered capital was 5.47 billion USD, equaling 83.6% over the same period last year - 2018 For capital contribution and share purchase, there were 7,509 times capital contribution and share purchase from foreign investors with a total value of capital contribution of 10.81 billion USD, up 70.5% over the same period in 2018 and accounting for 37 1% of total registered capital According to the Foreign Investment Agency, investment in the form of capital contribution and share purchase has tended to increase sharply in recent years and account for an increasing proportion of total foreign investment capital Specifically, in 2017 investment in the form of capital contribution, share purchase accounted for 17.02% of the total registered capital, in 2018 accounted for 27.78%, in the 10 months of 2019 accounted for 37.1% of the total registered capital 4.2.2 Investment from Hong Kong has increased sharply By investment field, foreign investors have invested in 19 sectors, in which investment focuses the most in the field of processing and manufacturing industry with a total capital of 18.83 billion USD accounting for 68.1% of total registered investment capital Real estate business ranked second with total investment capital of 2.98 billion USD, accounting for 10.2% of total registered investment capital Next are the fields of wholesale and retail, professional activities in science and technology, etc Hong Kong is currently leading investment partners in Vietnam with a total investment of 6.45 billion USD VI Solutions for Viet Nam and Hong Kong’s Balance of Payments Both Hong Kong and Vietnam’s economy are still affected by the Covid19 pandemic Vietnam has a weaker balance of payments than Hong Kong and must rely on foreign investment capital sources (direct and indirect investment) which are currently in decline, to maintain high growth 5.1 Implement export-oriented industrialization strategy: In order to successfully apply this strategy, in addition to promoting its comparative advantages, Vietnam must take full advantage of other resources: capital, production technology, advanced management level, etc Both Vietnam and Hong Kong should focus their efforts on developing the processing industry and modern technology fields: software engineering, electronic assembly technology, etc The government needs to proactively create advantages for the economy by identifying key industries, focusing on infrastructure investment and conditions that promote future production growth 5.2 Increase International Reserves and export Capital abroad The Governments of Vietnam and Hong Kong should set up a system to collect and process commercial information, which helps to improve forecasting and orienting the world market to ensure quick opportunities 5.3 Increase Imports of Consumer Goods and Means of Production This is one of the methods helping to improve the balance of payments of both Vietnam and Hong Kong However, the governments of these two countries must be very careful and monitor the import of consumer goods because this is a high-risk and volatile industry The End - REFERENCES VietNam State Bank Date World Bank General Statistics Office of VietNam Census and Statistics of Hong Kong Vneconomy Data.WTO ... solutions for both countries II Overview of Economy in VietNam and HongKong 2.1 Overview of VietNam’s Economy The development of Vietnam over the past 30 years is remarkable Economic and political... Viet Nam? ??s Balance of Payments 2.1 Viet Nam? ??s Balance of Payments (2006 - 2009) I would like to specifically mention Vietnam's balance of payments after 2006, which is also the time when Vietnam... between Viet Nam and Hong Kong 4.1 Import and export between Vietnam and Hong Kong in March 2020: Vietnam trade surplus According to statistics of the General Department of Customs, Vietnam's goods