QUAN HE DOI NGOAI / » J mm m IRVNG QUOC CUA I G I N G muucK OBIUIU VJiKHJIlBIEMIlillcillWHElllG Mt PGS NGUYEN HUY QUY ^ ^ • • t dng thd'ng My Barack V^^M Obama da tien h a n h ^ ^ chuyen t h a m 8 ngay (13 19/11/2009) tdi bdn nUdc Ddng A N h a t Ban, Xingapo, T r u n g Qud'c, Han Qud'c va dii Hdi nghi Thadng dinh APEC l i n thil 17 tai Xingapo The la ngay trong nam d i u cila nhiem ky Tdng thd'ng, sau cac chuyen t h a m My La ttinh, chau Phi, chau Au, Lien Bang Nga, chuyen t h a m Ddng A cila[.]
QUAN HE DOI NGOAI / » J mm m IRVNG QUOC CUA I G I N G muucK OBIUIU VJiKHJIlBIEMIlillcillWHElllG-Mt PGS NGUYEN HUY QUY ^ ^ • • t dng thd'ng My Barack V^^M Obama da tien hanh \ ^ ^ chuyen tham (1319/11/2009) tdi bdn nUdc Ddng A: Nhat Ban, Xingapo, Trung Qud'c, Han Qud'c va dii Hdi nghi Thadng dinh APEC l i n thil 17 tai Xingapo The la nam d i u cila nhiem ky Tdng thd'ng, sau cac chuyen tham My La-ttinh, chau Phi, chau Au, Lien Bang Nga, chuyen tham Ddng A cila dng Obama da hoan budc khdi ddng chfnh sach ddi ngoai mdi cua My tren pham vi toan ciu Ddi vdi chau A, chuyen tham la b i n thdng diep cila nUdc My chfnh thiic "trd lai chau A" ma Tan Tdng thd'ng Barack Obama va tan Ngoai tradng Hallary Clinton da nhieu l i n de cap tii nhieu thang Ddi vdi Trung Qud'c, chuyen tham la bade khdi ddng mdi cila quan he Trung - My Chuyen tham Ijch su: Trong cac chuyen cdng du hai ngoai tii d i u nam tdi nay, chuyen "tay du" l i n NGHIEN CliU TRUNG QUOC so 2(102) - 2010 cila Tdng thd'ng Obama la quan trgng nha't va khd khan nhat Quan trgng nha't bdi le ta nhieu nam My da tiing budc chuyen trgng tam chien lUdc sang khu viic chau A - Thai Binh DUdng, va khu viic trd trung tam kinh te sdi ddng nhit, d dd cd hai cadng qud'c kinh te diing tha hai va tha ba the gidi, dang la ddng liic quan trgng keo kinh te the gidi khdi khung hoang Khd khan nhat bdi le quan he vaa hdp tac vaa canh tranh giaa hai bd Thai Binh DUdng rat phUc tap, sii trdi day manh me cila Trung Qud'c dat nUdc My trUdc nhiing van de khdng de giai quyet Sii trdi day va anh hudng cila Trung Qud'c da tac ddng manh me vao toan bd khu vUc Ddng A - Ddng Bac A va Ddng Nam A Do vay, cudc tham cila Tdng thd'ng My tdi Nhat Ban, Xinhgapo, Han Qud'c, va ca cugc gap vdi nguyen thu cac qud'c gia ASEAN, tii gdc va mile nha't dinh, deu cd lien quan tdi quan he My - Trung Gidi binh luan qud'c 37 NGUY§NHUYQUY te cd ly cho rang "diem nhan" chuyen tham Ddng A l i n cua Tdng thd'ng Obama la Trung Qud'c Chuye'n tham Trung Qud'c cua Tong thd'ng My la "chuyen tham lich sil", khdng phai n h i m giai quyet nhiing van de cu the, ky ket nhang hiep dinh cu the, ma chil yeu nham xac dinh nhang nguyen tac quan he My - Trung Ve diem nay, dng Barack Obama da cdng, da tao dUdc da'u an bade khdi diem mdi cila quan he My - Trung, mac d i u dng da khdng dat dUdc n h a mong mud'n sii dap lai cua phfa Trung Qud'c ve mdt sd' van de quan he My - Trung, chu yeu la linh viic kinh te - thadng mai Diem diing chan d i u tien cila Tdng thd'ng Obama chuyen tham Trung Qud'c la Thadng Hai dng tii Hdi nghi APEC d Xingapo bay sang vao chieu 15/11/2009 Ngay hdm sau, 16/11, dng da cd cudc "ddi thoai" vdi nien Trung Qud'c (tai Vien Bao tang khoa hgc - cdng nghe ThUdng Hai) Trong bai ndi chuyen trade cudc ddi thoai, Tdng thd'ng Obama da trinh bay mdt each t h i n g t h i n , nhang cung rat te nhi, quan diem cila dng ve quan he My - Trung bdi canh lich sil mdi Diem lai lich sii quan he My - Trung, dng Obama ket luan: "Quan he hai nUdc chung ta khdng phai la khdng cd bat ddng hay khd khan NhUng khdng cd tien dinh rang chung ta b i t budc phai trd thu nghich - nha't la chung ta nhin lai qua kha"'^' Td'ng thd'ng My danh gia cao quan he hdp tac My Trung: "nhd sii hdp tac nen Hoa Ky va 38 Trung Qud'c se thinh vadng hdn, an toan hdn", va cho r i n g sii hdp tac dd phai "tren cd sd tdn trgng ian nhau", "moi qud'c gia phai tii tim dUdng rieng cho minh" N h a n g vi "the gidi cila chiing ta ve cd ban dang ket ndi vdi " nen "quyin liic the ky XXI khdng la cugc chcfi dUpc dn cd ngd ve khdng niia; mgt qudc gia thdnh cong khong nhdt thiet la khie'n qudc gia khac thua thiet Dd la ly vi nadc My dang nhan manh rang chung tdi khdng tim each ngan can sii vadn len cila Trung Qud'c Trai lai chiing tdi ddn chao mot nUdc Trung Qud'c la vien thinh vadng, cdng, cdng ddng cac qud'c gia" Cudi cdng Td'ng thd'ng Obama bay td tin tUdng tudi tre Trung Qudc cung tudi tre Hoa Ky "se giup mgt tay cho viec quyet dinh sd' phan cua the ky XXI"® Van kien chfnh thiic chuyen tham Trung Qud'c l i n cua Tdng thdng My Obama la "Tuyen bd' chung Trung - My" (cdng bo tai Bic Kmh 17/11/2009), dd cd may ndi dung dang chu y: Hai ben cho rang de quan he Trung My phat trien lanh manh dn dinh lau dai, c i n tri gap gd ca'p cao lanh dao hai nadc, tri cd che ddi thoai chien lUdc va kinh te, ddi thoai ve nhan quyen Hai ben nhan manh "cac nUdc va nhan dan cac nUdc deu cd quyen chgn dudng phat trien cila minh Cac nadc cin tdn trgng ian sii lUa chgn mo thac phat trien cila nUdc khac " "Hai ben cho rang ddi vdi nhieu van de trgng dai lien quan den dn dinh va phat trien toan ciu, Trung Qud'c va My NGHIEN CliU TRUNG QUOC s d 1(101) - 2010 Chuyen thdm Trung Qudc cua Tdng thdng Barack Obama cd cd sd hdp tac cang rdng rai, ganh vac trach nhiem chung cang quan trgng " Do vay, "xay diing va tang cadng sii tin cay chien lUdc gifia hai ben la vd cimg quan trgng ddi vdi viec phat trien quan he Trung - My thdi ky mdi ", " phia Trung Qud'c cam ket Trung Qud'c ludn di dadng phat trien mgt each hoa binh Phfa My khang dinh lai: nadc My hoan nghenh mdt Trung Qud'c Idn manh, phdn vinh, cdng, phat huy vai trd cang Idn cac cdng viec qud'c te " " Hai ben the hien quyet tam ciing nd liic thiic day kinh te toan c i u tang tradng ben vOng va can ddi hdn Nham muc dfch dd, hai ben lau y nhiing bien phap chfnh sach manh me va kip thdi n h i m ngan chan san xuat toan ciu suy giam va dn dinh thi tradng tai chfnh " Ddi vdi "nhang thach thilc cd tinh khu viic va toan ciu", "hai ben nhan thdc dUdc r i n g trUdc sii thay ddi sau sac, phiic tap tinh hinh qud'c te hien nay, hai nadc Trung - My cung cd trach nhiem hdp tac khu viic va toan ciu Hai ben nhan manh Trung Qud'c va My cd chung ldi fch rdng rai tai khu viic chau A - Thai Binh Dadng, ung hd viec xay diing va hoan thien mgt khudn khd hdp tac khu viic rdng md, bao dung, cimg thing " "Hai ben k h i n g dinh lai t i m quan trgng cua tien trinh dam phan ben va thiic hien ban Tuyen bd' chung "19/9" (2005) bao gdm phi hat nhan hoa ban dao Trieu Tien, binh thadng hoa quan he va xay diing cd che hoa binh vinh vien tai khu viic Ddng Bic A , hai NGHI£N CliU TRUNG QU6C so 2(102) - 2010 ben ddng y can cd vao "Hiep Udc cim phd bien vii khf hat nhan", Iran cd quyen sd dung nang ladng nguyen til vao muc dfch hoa binh, ddng thdi Iran cung phai chap hanh nhang nghia vu qud'c te tUdng iing theo quy dinh Hiep Udc dd " Ve van de bien ddi khf hau, nang ladng va mdi trUdng, hai ben cam ket se thiic day ddi thoai va hdp tac tren cd sd "Ban ghi nhd tang cUdng hdp tac Trung My ve bien ddi khf hau, nang ladng va mdi tradng" (dUdc soan thao ddi thoai Trung - My ve chien lUdc va kinh te, thang 7/2009, va dUdc ky ket dip Tdng thd'ng Obarha tham Trung Qud'c l i n nay) Hai ben cam ket cung cac nadc khac de Hdi nghi Qud'c te ve bien ddi khf hau tai Copenhagen dat dUdc "Hiep dinh cd tfnh phap luat, ddng thdi tin tadng r i n g thoa thuan sap tdi dat dUdc se bao gdm muc tieu giam chat thai khf cacbon cila cac nadc phat trien va hanh ddng giam bdt thfch dang cac nUdc dang phat trien "'^' Binh luan ve ket qua chuyen tham: Da cd nhieu binh luan gidi truyen thdng d Trung Qud'c va qud'c te ve chuyen tham cila Td'ng thd'ng My Obama Van de chu yeu dadc de cap la muc tieu dfch thiic cila chuyen tham lien quan tdi chfnh sach cua chfnh quyen mdi d My ddi vdi Trung Qud'c va mdc dat dadc muc tieu dd chuyen tham; tac ddng cila chuyen tham ddi vdi trien vgng quan he Trung - My va tinh hinh khu viic, tinh hinh qud'c te thdi gian tdi 39 NGUYIN HUY QUY Dai Bic Kinh (17/11/09) d i n ldi Chu tich Hd Cam Dao cho r i n g Hdi dam cap cao l i n hai ben Trung - My "da di sau trao ddi y kie'n va dat dadc nhan thiic chung rdng rai ve phat trien quan he song phadng, cac va'n de qud'c te va khu viic trgng dai ciing quan tam Cudc hdi dam da dien b i u khdng khf thang than, xay diing va dat dadc nhieu qua" Hang AP (Bic Kinh, 17/11/09) vf "the thadng phong" cila Trung Qud'c va sii lep ve cila My l i n n h a mdt hien tUdng "sao ddi ngdi", va cho rang "trd ve nadc sau chuyen cdng du chau A mang lai ke't qua ft di, ngoai viec dat nen tang cho sii hdp tac tdt hdn, cd the la ndi "chua cay" ddi vdi Obama va ngadi My" Dai BBC (toi 17/11/09) nhan dinh: "My khdng c i n thie't phai tao mdi quan he ddi d i u vdi Trung Qud'c, ma nen la ddi tac thi td't hdn nhieu Nhang ta't nhien, ddi tac d day cung chi la nhiing ddi tac tim kiem "hdp tac thuc dung", chii khd cd the la ddi tac h a u hao cua nhau" TrUdc he't, c i n danh gia chuye'n tham Trung Qud'c cila Td'ng thd'ng Obama chil yeu la n h i m k h i n g dinh cd sd chinh tri, chii khdng phai n h i m giai quyet nhiing van de cu the quan he Trung - My Vdi y nghia dd, chuye'n tham da cdng, danh dau khdi diem mdi cua quan he Trung - My, mac d i u chaa tao dadc dot pha nao cho cac va'n de cdn tdn tai quan he giCa hai nadc Thii hai, cudc tiep xiic cap cao l i n nay, khac vdi cac cugc tiep xiic dudi thdi cac Tdng thd'ng My trade kia, phfa Trung Qud'c d the binh d i n g hdn Dd la 40 he qua ta't nhien cila sii thay ddi can can so sanh liic ladng giiia hai cadng qud'c Thd ba, ro rang quan he Trung - My hien mang tfnh "hdp tac thiic dung", cd ldi cho ca hai ben, va dilng trade nhieu cd hgi phat trien Tuy nhien, quan he Trung - My hien ciing dang a'n chiia nhieu mau t h u i n , canh tranh se khdng t r a n h khdi tren ta't ca cac linh viic kinh te, chfnh tri, quan sii Cd the noi r i n g qua cugc vieng tham Trung Qudc l i n nay, Td'ng thd'ng Obama da cdng viec gili di ban thdng diep ve "chfnh sach ngoai giao thdng minh" cila dng ddi vdi Trung Qud'c va ddi vdi khu viic Ddng A ndi chung Sii dieu chinh chfnh sach doi ngoai cua chfnh quyen Obama la mot thiic te, dac biet chfnh sach ddi vdi Trung Qud'c Sii dieu chinh dd chu yeu the hien ba phUdng dien Mgt Id My khdng lay "kiem che" sii trdi day cua Trung Qud'c lam muc tieu chfnh sach, hdn the niia My chu trUdng tang cUdng hdp tac vdi Trung Qud'c, coi dd la bien phap khdng the thie'u de giai quyet cac van de song phUdng, khu viic va toan ciu Hai Id, My khdng cdn coi viec ap dat nhang quan niem gia tri n h a dan chii, nhan quyen v.v la muc tieu chfnh sach quan he vdi Trung Qud'c, tdn trgng md thiic phat trien ma Trung Qud'c liia chgn Ba la, chu tradng thdng qua ddi thoai, xay diing long tin, va tang cadng hdp tac, de giai quye't cac van de song phadng, ciing n h a cac va'n de khu viic va qud'c te lien quan den hai ben Sii dieu chinh chfnh sach cua Tdng thd'ng Obama ddi vdi Trung Qudc phan NGHIEN CliU TRUNG QUOC so 1(101) - 2010 Chuyen tham Trung Qudc cua Tdng thdng Barack Obama anh xu the chung chfnh sach ddi ngoai cua My bdi canh qud'c te mdi, My v i n giii dUdc vi the sieu cudng nhat nhang khdng cdn du siic mdt minh thao tiing trat tii the gidi Trong dd, sii trdi day manh me cua Trung Qud'c ve kinh te, quan sii, va ngoai giao la mgt hien tadng gay tac dgng manh tdi khu viic va qud'c te ma My khdng the "kiem che" dadc Sii sa liy cac cugc chien "chd'ng khiing bd' qud'c te" va sii bung nd khiing hoang tai chfnh - kinh te viia qua da lam giam siit siic manh nadc va anh hadng qud'c te cila nadc My Sii thay ddi can can so sanh liic ladng ddi hdi nadc My p h i i cd sii dieu chinh thai iing xil, phUdng phap tiep can treng quan he vdi cac doi tac, nhat la quan he vdi cac nUdc Idn, cac td chile khu viic quan trgng Trong Dien van khai mac ddi thoai My - Trung ve chien lade va kinh te tien hanh tai My thang 7-2009, Td'ng thd'ng Obama da dung cau chuyen bdng rd de an du chinh sach ngoai giao mdi cila minh: "Tdi la mdt Td'ng thd'ng mdi, cung la mgt ngUdi me bdng rd, tu! Dieu Minh (mdt c i u thu bdng rd ngUdi Hoa ndi tieng the gidi) tdi da tha'y sang td mgt dao ly, ndi rang: du la mdt c i u thu mdi hay la mdt ciu thil lau nam, ban ciing phai danh thdi gian dieu chinh minh, thich ang vdi ngUdi khac Thdng qua l i n ddi thdai nay, tdi tin la minh se dat tieu chuan cua Dieu Minh"*'" Ong Obama da van dung triet ly bdng rd vao triet ly ngoai giao: minh thay ddi, ddi tac thay ddi, phUdng phap tiep can, thu phap canh tranh cung phai thay ddi thich ilng mdi dat ke't qua NGHIEN CliU TRUNG QUQC so 2(102) - 2010 Thiic chinh sach ngoai giao truyen thd'ng cua cac chfnh phu My ddi vdi Trung Qud'c la viia kiem che viia hdp tac Nhang nhan manh hdp tac hdn hay nhan manh kiem che hdn la v i n de tiing dien tranh luan Xuat phat tii ldi fch cila nadc My bdi canh qud'c te va so sanh liic ladng My - Trung hien nay, Tong thd'ng Obama tuyen bd' thang than "khdng tim each kiem che Trung Qud'c" cung la dieu de hieu Tuy nhien, ndi cho cung dd la sU thay ddi each tiep can chil khdng phai la thay ddi muc tieu, tang cUdng hdp tac khdng cd nghia la t a bd canh tranh Trong xu the toan c i u hoa, cudc canh tranh hien khdng phai la "mdt mat mdt cdn", "dUdc an ca, nga ve khdng", nhUng mdi cUdng qud'c van tim each gianh vi the cd ldi hdn, tren ta't ca cac linh viic kinh te, quan sii, ngoai giao Dang Dan chil d My vd'n cd chfnh sach cang r i n bao hd mau dich va nhang va cham quan he kinh te My - Trung se la van de khd tranh khdi va khdng loai trii nguy cd bung nd chien tranh thUdng mai giaa hai nUdc Nhan to' y thac he d i n phai md quan he giaa My vdi Trung Qud'c va cac nUdc khac, sU ap dat quan niem gia tri My cho cac qud'c gia dan tdc khac td khdng may hieu q u i Do vay ma Tdng thd'ng Obama da phai trinh trgng tuyen bd: "Nen dan chu khdng the dUa vao bat cii qud'c gia nao tii ben ngoai Mdi nUdc cin phai tim cho minh mdt dUdng rieng, va tren thiic te cung chang cd dudng nao dUdc coi la hoan thien"^' Tii sau len cim quyen va chuye'n 41 NGUY§N HUY QUY tham Trung Qud'c l i n dng Obama khdng he de cap van de "dan chu", "nhan quyen" cua Trung Qud'c The nhang dng Obama lai cho r i n g nhang gia tri dan chu, nhan quyen d My, nhiing ly tadng ma Lincon, Martin Luther King de xadng va tdn thd khdng phai la cai nadc My dac hiiu, ma la nhiing "quyen phd quat" can dUdc bao ve "tren k h i p the gidi" Cd the ndi, ve Hnh vUc y thilc he boat ddng ngoai giao, dng Obama khdng tii bd, ma la thay ddi each tie'p can Sii dieu chinh chinh sach ddi vdi Trung Qud'c hdp tac giai quyet cac va'n ve khu viic va toan c i u ciing xua't phat tii tinh hinh mdi va vi the mdi cila hai ben Td'ng thd'ng Obama cung Ngoai trudng Hillary Clinton dang sil dung chien thuat "ngoai giao thdng minh" de "trd lai chau A", lay lai anh hadng cila My da p h i n nao de ma't mat dudi thdi Tdng thd'ng G.W.Bush Nhang sii "trd lai" cua My khdng nhat dinh la day lui anh hadng cua Trung Qud'c Tdng thdng Obama da nhieu l i n nhac lai r i n g nhieu van de khu viic va qud'c te hien se khd cd the giai quyet dadc neu khdng cd sii phdi hdp giiia hai cadng qud'c My va Trung Qud'c Tuy nhien, sii phdi hdp viia cd mat hdp tac, viia cd mat canh tranh, va khdng loai trii nhiing thoa hiep cd ldi cho ca hai ben nhang lai bat ldi ddi vdi cac ben thii ba Khdi diem mdi cua quan he Trung -My Neu quan he My - Trung se "dinh ^ h the ky XXI" nhu Tdng thd'ng Obama da ndi, thi chuye'n tham Trung 42 Qud'c viia qua cua ong vdi nhiing thoa thuan da dat dadc giiia hai ben se "dinh hinh quan he My - Trung" nhiing thap nien d i u the ky XXI Tuy nhien, the gidi the ky XXI khdng chi co My va Trung Qud'c, ciing n h a d My va Trung Qud'c khdng chi cd dadng ldi ddi ngoai cila cac nha lanh dao hien Nhang nhan td' khac se tac ddng vao quan he My - Trung va quan he My Trung se tac ddng vao quan he qud'c te va khu viic, dan de'n nhiing he qua kho da bao mdt each chfnh xac Tuy nhien, tadng lai gin, quan he My - Trung cd kha nang se dien bie'n theo hadng chu yeu sau day: Quan he My - Trung se chuyen sang mdt thdi ky on dinh tadng ddi, quan he song phUdng se diin mot each "tfch ciic, hdp tac, toan dien" "Tfch ciic, hdp tac, toan dien" la phUdng cham Tong thd'ng Obama de xuat, dadc phfa Trung Qud'c cha'p nhan, va dUa vao "Tuyen bd' chung" Xu the "tfch ciic" the hien t i m quan trgng va tfnh cap bach cila viec tang cadng quan he My - Trung ddi vdi mdi nadc Hien Trung Qud'c la nadc chil nd Idn nhat cila My, vdi 800 ty USD trai phieu chfnh phu, My la thi tradng xua't khau Idn nhat cila Trung Qud'c (nam 2008 Trung Qud'c xuat sieu 268 ty USD va thang dau 2009 xuat sieu 143 ty USD) Trong bdi canh khiing hoang tai chinh va kinh te toan c i u hien nay, Trung Qud'c quan tam den tiing nhip thd cua nen kinh te My, tiing khoan chi tieu cila chfnh phii My, phfa My quan tam tiing NGHIEN CliU TRUNG QUOC s o 1(101) - 2010 Chuyen tham Trung Qudc cua Tdng thdng Barack Obama gdi kfch c i u cila chfnh phu va mac tieu thu cua ngudi dan Trung Qud'c tren thi trUdng ngi dia, bdi mdi ddng thai cua ben se tac ddng vao ben kia, nha cd ngadi da vf vdi hinh anh "mdi hd rang lanh" quan he giiia hai nen kinh te da gan chat vao bdi canh toan c i u boa Hdp tac My - Trung cung ciic ky quan trgng va cap bach viec ang phd vdi cac hiem hoa toan ciu, nha't la mol de doa tii bien ddi hau My va Trung Qud'c la hai qud'c gia thai khf cacbon gay hieu ang nha kfnh Idn nha't va thil hai the gidi (tdng cdng 40% ladng khf thai cua toan the gidi) Neu My va Trung Qud'c tiep tuc t a chdi Nghi dinh thu Kyoto va dun day nha nhang nam qua, thi nUdc bien dang len, hai phd ThUdng Hai va Los Angeles se bi ngap chim cung mdt luc Dd la ly g i n day hai ben da tang cadng hdp tac ve linh viic Thang 72009 hai nadc ky "Hiep dinh Trung - My hdp tac ve nang ladng sach" va nhadng bg dang ke qua trinh chuan bi "Hgi nghi ve van de bien dd'i khf hau" cua Lien Hdp Qud'c tai Copenhagen trung t u i n thang 12/2009 Cugc chien chdng khung bd d Iraq va Afghanistan da dat nudc My len lUng hd va hien dang sa lay, rat c i n cd sii ung hd cua phfa Trung Qud'c, cung n h a Trung Qud'c cung dang rat c i n sU thdng cam cua My viec tran ap cac the liic ly khai gay bao loan d Tay Tang va Tan Cadng Vi nhang ly tren, va nhang van de khac, hai ben dang rat c i n nhau, va quan he My - Trung thap nien tdi se di vao NGHIEN CliU TRUNG QUOC s d 2(102) - 2010 the dn dinh tUdng ddi hdp tac song phUdng se dUdc trien khai tich cUc va toan dien hdn NhOng mau thuan va canh tranh ve kinh te - thUdng mai giaa Trung Qud'c va My van tdn tai, cd nhang van de se sau sac va gay gat hdn, qua trinh "ddi thoai" Trung - My se dien khd khan, phdc tap Trong hdi dam ca'p cao My - Trung nhan chuyen tham Trung Qudc cua Td'ng thd'ng Obama vita qua cung da bdc Id nhang khd khan sap tdi quan he giaa hai nUdc Phfa My da de cap van de ty gia giaa ddng USD va ddng NDT, nhac lai cam ket cua phfa Trung Qudc trUdc day se can ca vao tinh hinh cu the de dieu chinh ty gia hdi doai mgt each thich hdp, nhUng khdng dUdc sii bdi am cua phfa Trung Qud'c (ty gia USD = 8,3 NDT nam 2005 dUdc dieu chinh din den USD = 6,8 NDT nam 2008, nhUng mgt nam Trung Qud'c van gia nguyen ty gia dd) Trong phfa Trung Qudc mud'n phfa My cam ket ro rang hdn viec ta bd " b i o hd mau dich", nhUng da khdng dUdc hdi am thiic sii, ngoai van tii tuyen bd' chung Tren thiic te thi va'n de "bao hg mau dich" Trung Qudc va My "ngUdi tam lang, ke nda can", vaa ndi viia lam, viia cao huge ian Ngay trade chuyen tham Trung Qud'c cua Tong thd'ng Obama, hai ben da ddng ben bd "chien tranh thUdng mai" My ap thue 35% cho mat hang Id'p d td, va miic thue cao cho mat hang thep d'ng nhap k h i u ta Trung Qudc, Trung Qud'c da dap lai tadng ifng ddi vdi mat 43 NGUYEN HUY QUY hang thit ga, linh kien d td, va d td nguyen chiec nhap tcf My Theo truyen thdng, Dang Dan chu cd xu hadng ciing r i n van de "bao hd mau dich" n h i m bao ve san xuat nadc Sau khiing hoang tai chfnh, ngadi dan My phai t h i t chat chi tieu, chfnh phu My phai can ddi ngan sach, lao dgng My c i n cd viec lam, thi tradng My khdng the tran ngap mai cac mat hang "Made in China" gia re niia, viee chuyen hadng tieu thu hang hoa Trung Qud'c tii xuat khau sang ndi dia la chfnh phai trai qua mdt qua trinh khd khan va lau dai Va cham thUdng mai My - Trung thdi gian tdi la khdng tranh khdi, "ddi thoai chien lUdc va kinh te" cd the iam cho hai ben tranh dadc "chien tranh thadng mai" hay khdng cdn la van de phai chd xem Tren linh viic chfnh tri - an ninh, van de Dai Loan van la trd ngai Idn quan he My - Trung Trong tuyen bd' chung My - Trung l i n na>, van de Dai Loan dUdc de cap nhU sau: "Hai ben nhan manh t i m quan trgng cua van de Dai Loan quan he Trung - My Phfa Trung Qud'c nhan manh, van de Dai Loan can he tdi chu quyen va toan bg lanh thd cua Trung Qud'c, hy vgng phia My tuan thu nhCng dieu da cam ke't, thdng cam vdi lap tradng cila Trung Qud'c ve van de Phfa My tuyen bd thi hanh chfnh sach "mdt nadc Trung Qud'c", tuan thu nhiing nguyen t i c "ba ban Thdng cao chung Trung - My" Phfa My hoan nghenh quan he hai bd eo bien Dai Loan 44 phat trien mdt each hoa binh, hy vgng hai bd tang cadng ddi thoai, thiic day lin ve kinh te, chinh tri, va cac linh viic khac, xay diing quan he tfch ciic, dn dinh hdn"*®' Cd the ndi, qua chuyen tham Trung Qud'c l i n cua Tdng thd'ng Obama, van de Dai Loan quan he Trung - My van dam chan tai chd Dai RFA ggi va'n de Dai Loan vin la mdt "khiic xadng" khd gam Da luan qud'c te danh gia tadng quan liic ladng hien nay, Trung Qud'c hoan toan cd kha nang danh bai Dai Loan ve quan sii Do vay, ba nam qua chinh quyen Dai Loan da ba l i n de nghi phia My ban vii khf ddt mdi (gdm 66 chiec F16, cung ten liia Patriot va triic thang Black Hawk) n h a n g ca ba lin chfnh quyen My chf hila ma chaa thiic hien, ngai anh hadng tdi quan he My Trung'^' Ve va'n de nay, thdi gian tdi Tdng thd'ng Obama phai cd quyet dinh cudi ciing Tii dng Ma Anh Cilu cua Dang Qud'c dan len cam quyen tai Dai Loan tdi nay, quan he hai bd eo bien Dai Loan chuj^en sang hadng hoa diu va di vao the dn dinh Nhang van de Dai Loan, hai ben Trung - My "ddng sang" ma "di mdng" Dai Loan van la van de quan trgng nhat, nhay cam nha't, ciing la va'n de khd khan phiic tap, an chiia nhieu nguy cd xung dot nha't quan he Trung - My Cac diem ndng khac tai khu viic Ddng A, n h a va'n de hat nhan Bic Trieu Tien, van de tranh chap tren bien Hoa Ddng va Bien Ddng v.v van la nhdng dia ban canh tranh Trung - My NGHIEN CliU TRUNG QUOC so 1(101) - 2010 Chuyen tham Trung Qudc cua Tong thdng Barack Obama Ve v a n de h a t n h a n B i c T r i e u Tien, "Tuyen b d c h u n g T r u n g - My" l i n n a y da k h a n g d i n h t i m q u a n t r g n g ciia viec "tiep tuc t h u c d a y d a m p h a n ben va thiic h i e n T u y e n bd' c h u n g 19/9/2005 " K h d n g n g h i sU thd'ng nha't giaa My va T r u n g Qud'c ve lap trUdng mdt b a n dao T r i e u Tien k h d n g cd vu khf h a t n h a n NhUng ngUdi t a v a n nghi ngd ve y dd thiic sii cila T r u n g Qud'c va My t r o n g viec giai q u y e t v a n de, d i n tdi tie'n t r i n h d a m p h a n b e n d i i n r a n h a mdt m a n kich "meo vdn chudt", qua nhieu n a m m a v i n c h a a cd hdi ket Vu dung t r e n bien giiia liic l a d n g h a i q u a n H a n Qud'c va C H D C N D Trieu Tien t h a n g 10/2009 viia q u a cho t h a y ban dao T r i e u Tien d a n g i n c h a a n h a n g nguy cd x u n g dot khd ludng trUdc T r a n h c h a p c h u q u y e n va t a i n g u y e n bien d i e tai Ddng H a i giiia T r u n g Qudc va N h a t B a n t r o n g n h a n g n a m tdi cd k h a n a n g se l i n g diu Tii trUdc tdi n a y n h a n to My v i n cd vai trd q u a n trgng q u a n he T r u n g - N h a t NhUng nUdc N h a t n a y d a n g cd xu h u d n g "thoat My n h a p A" Mac d i u h a i ben My - N h a t k h i n g d i n h q u a n he My - N h a t v i n la "hdn da t a n g " t r o n g c h i n h sach ddi ngoai cila h a i nUdc, nhUng vai trd cua My t r o n g q u a n h e N h a t - T r u n g c h i c c h i n se suy g i i m , T r u n g Qud'c se t a n g cadng q u a n he vdi N h a t Ban Tai k h u viic Ddng N a m A, sii "trd lai" cua My la mdt t h a c h t h a c ddi vdi T r u n g Qud'c qua t r i n h t a n g c a d n g t h e liic p h a t h u y a n h h a d n g xud'ng v u n g Viec My t h a m gia Hiep adc t h a n t h i e n va hdp tac vdi ASEAN, h i n h a n h Tdng thd'ng My NGHIEN CliU TRUNG QUOC sd 2(102) - 2010 O b a m a ndi vdng tay t h a n h a u vdi 10 n h a l a n h dao ASEAN, dd cd ca T h u tudng M y a n m a Thein Sein tai Hdi nghi cac n h a l a n h dao ASEAN - My l i n d i u tien (Xingapo, 15/11/2009) da chdng td My "trd lai Ddng N a m A" Tinh h i n h mdi ddi hdi cac nadc A S E A N p h a i t a n g cUdng sii nha't trf t r o n g chfnh sach ddi ngoai, cd each ilng xd p h u hdp vdi h a i ddi tac q u a n t r g n g h a n g d i u la My va T r u n g Qud'c t r o n g bdi c a n h mdi cua q u a n he My Trung CHU THICH: (1) DiSn van cila Obama d ThUdng Hai http:://www.bbc.co.uk/vietnamese/lg/wor]d/2 009/11/091116_obama_shanghai_speech.sht (2) Diin vap cua Obama d ThUdng Hai http:://www.bbc.co.uk/vietnamese/lg/world/2 009/11/091116_obama_shanghai_speech.sht (3) "Tuyen bo chung Trung - My" Mang Tan Hoa Xa Bic Kmh 17/11/2009 http://news.xinhuanet.com/worldy2009ll/17/contenl24756204_htm (4) Phat bieu ciia Tong tho'ng Obama tai Doi thoai chien lUdc va kinh te Trung - My, t h i n g 7/2009, theo Mang Tan Hoa Xa http://news.xinhuanet.com/world/2009ll/17/conten_124756001.htm (5) Phat bieu eua Tong tho'ng Obama tai Dai hoi dong Lien Hiep quoc 23/9/2009 (Chuyen tri'ch tii bao "An ninh the gidi" 26/9/2009) (6) "Tuyen bo ehung 17/11/2009 Tai lieu da din Trung - My" (7) Cuoi thang 1-2010, Tong thong Barack Obama da de trinh trUdc Quoc hoi My ke hoach ban vii cho Dai Loan tri gia hdn ty USD Phia Trung Quoc da phan doi (BBT) 45 ... ddng vao quan he My - Trung va quan he My Trung se tac ddng vao quan he qud'c te va khu viic, dan de'n nhiing he qua kho da bao mdt each chfnh xac Tuy nhien, tadng lai gin, quan he My - Trung cd... nhang cung rat te nhi, quan diem cila dng ve quan he My - Trung bdi canh lich sil mdi Diem lai lich sii quan he My - Trung, dng Obama ket luan: "Quan he hai nUdc chung ta khdng phai la khdng... te lien quan den hai ben Sii dieu chinh chfnh sach cua Tdng thd'ng Obama ddi vdi Trung Qudc phan NGHIEN CliU TRUNG QUOC so 1(101) - 2010 Chuyen tham Trung Qudc cua Tdng thdng Barack Obama anh