1571 the impact of macro factors on the stock market in viet nam masters thesis (FILE WORD)

Đinh Thanh Huyền Student ID: 17047720 Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the UWE Bristol ounhΓιtv England Requirement for the MSc in Finance FINANCE DISSERTATION ON The impact of macro factors on the stock market in Vietnam NAME OF STUDENT: DINH THANH HUYEN ID No: 17047720 Intake Supervisor: Dr Tran Thi Xuan Anh Đinh Thanh Huyền Student ID: 17047720 September 2018 THE IMPACT OF MACRO FACTORS ON THE STOCK MARKET IN VIETNAM By Dinh Thanh Huyen ID: 17047720 Đinh Thanh Huyền Student ID: 17047720 Research proposal - The research question: The stock market is quite young in Vietnam, but it has a certain impact on the economy Over the years, there has been a lot of domestic and international economic and political turmoil, so it has made significant changes in the market The integration and attraction of foreign investors is a positive sign for the Vietnamese economy Although there have been a lot of researches and articles on the impact of macro factors on the stock market, it seems to me that this is a very good and practical subject assist Based on previous research, I will provide further analysis of some of the hopeful contributions that can be made to the comments that will help boost Vietnam's economy - Research by others This is a topic that has been studied so much, so I have based on previous research to base this analysis Before choosing the topic, I studied some of the previous highlights to make the basis for my own writing - Research methods and data: In this study I used data on CPI, GDP, exchange rate, gold price, VN Index from 2000 to 2018 for analysis These are typical macro indicators of the Vietnamese economy The data I use are taken from the General Statistics Office, the Securities and Economic Review - Timescale: This article is made within months This is not too long and not too short for me to study the subject I hope I can spend as much time as possible to make my dissertation the best - Final format: My research consists of parts In this essay I will analyze the stock market, the stages of development, the research model, analysis of macro factors and its impact on the stock market in Vietnam Then give the comments, reviews Đinh Thanh Huyền Student ID: 17047720 Executive summary This essay focuses on the effects of inflation on the stock market in Vietnam, the causes of inflation and its effects, and the short- long term market Vietnam Stock Market (VN-Index) and Inflation (Consumer Price Index CPI) In this essay I have used quantitative methods, regression models to evaluate and comment After all analyzes, it is clear that inflation has a strong impact on the stock market in both short and long term In short, the correction speed is relative equilibrium slow, negligible In the long run, inflation and exchange rate fluctuations are strong In contrast to the VN-Index, the interest rate also negatively affected the index, however, was weaker and the gold price was impacted along the VN-Index Based on the results of the research, some solutions are proposed to contribute to the support Vietnam's stock market develops stably and sustainably In the Vietnamese market, changes in policies as well as macro factors often have a strong impact (both positive and negative) on the stock market and the psychology of investors Therefore, the study of the relationship between the macroeconomic factors and the volatility of Vietnam stock market is very important Đinh Thanh Huyền Student ID: 17047720 Table of content Executive summary CHAPTER 1: Introduction .8 Reason for choosing the topic Overview of the main contents of the thesis: .8 Objectives of the study: Research Issues: Research subjects: Research scope: CHAPTER 2: Studies on the macro factors affecting the stock market in Vietnam 10 Literature review 10 Overview of Vietnam stock market 14 The macro Index 15 Gross National Product - GDP .15 Consumer price index - CPI 15 Inflation 16 Price of gold 18 The stages of development of the stock market in Vietnam 19 The period 2000-2005: Thetoddler stage of the stock market 19 Period 2006: Breakthroughdevelopment of the Vietnam stock market 20 Period 2008: In the general trend of the economy, Vietnam stock market closed in 2008 with a sharp decline 21 In 2017 stock market: One year "overwhelmed" record 23 The role of the stock market .24 The impact of inflation on the stock market 26 CHAPTER 3: Overview of the macroeconomic situation and Vietnam stock market in the period of 2000 - 2018 .29 The period from 2000 to 2005 29 The period from 2006-2009 is the accelerating period of the Vietnam stock market 30 The period 2009 - 2010: The recovery period after the crisis but still implies many risks 32 The period 2011 - 2012: the period of tightening monetary and fiscal policy made the stock market difficult 33 The period 2012 - 2014: Stable growth period with many positive signals .34 Đinh Thanh Huyền Student ID: 17047720 The period 2014 - 2016: growth slowdown and many negative developments on the stock market 35 In 2017: a record year 36 CHAPTER 4: Research Methods 38 CHAPTER 5: Conclusion 43 References 44 Đinh Thanh Huyền Student ID: 17047720 Lists of Table and Figures Figure IJN Index2006 20 Figure 2:VN Index 2008 21 Figure 22 Figure4 24 Figure 5: CPI from 2011-2016 25 Figure 6: Inflation over the same period last year of the months of the year 26 from1∕2008 to 2/2017 .26 Figure 7: Market capitalization ratio of Vietnam stock market in 2006 - 2009 .30 Figure 8: Situation of listed companies from 2006 to 2009 30 Table 1:_Scale of the stock market from 2000 to 2005 (Source: State Securities Commission of Vietnam) 29 Table 2: Number of securities companies & number of trading accounts registered from 2006 to 2009 31 Table 3: Indicators from 2000 to 2018 .38 Đinh Thanh Huyền Student ID: 17047720 CHAPTER 1: Introduction Reason for choosing the topic Vietnam stock market has been operating for more than 15 years, although not too long, but it has developed rapidly become an indispensable factor in making the national economy strong and play more developed It appears as a channel for raising capital for businesses and helps to assess the situation of the business is good or bad It attracts domestic and foreign investors However, in the last few years, the stock market has been affected by the economic and political turmoil In addition, inflation is an important indicator of economic performance The impact of inflation is not just in an area where many sectors and markets are no exception When it comes to stocks, we will talk about stock prices, investments, benefits and risks in securities investments The political, economic and business conditions of all this will affect stock prices, which will create a lot of volatility So I chose to focus on the impact of inflation on the stock market to better understand the causes and consequences and to come up with solutions to control and improve Overview of the main contents of the thesis: The thesis consists of chapters: Chapter 1: Introduction Chapter 2: Previous studies on the impact of inflation on the market stock market Chapter 3: Research Methods Impact of macro factors Vietnam's Stock Market Chapter 4: Research Methods Chapter 5: Conclusions and Recommendations Objectives of the study: The research objective of the project is to clarify the impact of inflation on the market Vietnam Securities Market Research Issues: One of the issues that many people are concerned about is inflation, interest the exchange rate, gold price impact on the VN-Index In some countries the world as well as in the region, this issue has been many studies, in Vietnam there are also some studies related to the Đinh Thanh Huyền Student ID: 17047720 variation stock price index This issue has been raised and analyzed quite a lot so that solutions can be found to improve the situation Research subjects: The subjects of the thesis include: Vietnam stock market, inflation factors (consumer price index CPI), lending rates of banks trade, exchange rate VND / USD, gold price Research scope: Vietnam's stock market is limited to the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange is represented by price index VN Index Vietnam's stock market is a new and nascent market but it plays a very important role in economic development In developing countries the stock market is also developing very strongly We can see that there are many factors that affect the stock market, including inflation In this study I focus only on the CPI, GDP, interest rates and indexes for analysis With this little contribution, I hope it can provide more useful information that will benefit the investors who want to grow in this market ... empirical studies on the influence of inflation to the stock market, all research papers agree the content of the impact of inflation on the stock market in the short term and in the long term However,... agree The content of the impact of inflation on the stock market in the short term and in the long term However in each study have different conclusions about the impact of different Overview of Vietnam... development of the Vietnam stock market In 2006 was the "breakthrough" development of the stock market in Vietnam With a growth rate of 60% from the beginning to the middle of 2006, the market capitalization