INTRODUCTION
INTRODUCTION
As liquidity problems of some banks during global financial crisis re-emphasised, liquidity is very important for functioning of financial markets and the banking sector.
Theoretically, the liquidity of commercial banks (commercial banks) is defined as the ability of the bank to fund asset growth and meet its obligations as they fall due without incurring acceptable losses (BIS (2008)) Indeed, the Basel Committee (2009) explained that the viability of commercial banks depends on the liquidity position of the bank Diamond and Dybvig (1983) were the first to provide the evidence on the importance of role of the bank in the creation of liquidity In addition, the optimal level of liquidity is strongly linked to effective banking operations if liquidity is not generated properly, which can lead to insolvency (in case of low liquidity) and low profitability (in the case of high liquidity) and finally destroyed shareholders value and may be harmful to other banks and because of the contagion effect For example, this could lead to the fastest risk of bankruptcy.
There are several researchs on bank liquidity in different economies and regions on the world Therefor, we can classifie factors affecting bank liquidity into two main groups: the group of endogenous factors and the group of exogenous factors Specifically, the group of factors within the bank: bank size, capital ratio, credit risk, NIM, deposit ratio, ROA, ROE Besides, exogenous factors include: Inflation in the economy (INF); Economic growth (GDP).
This research aims to identify the factors that influence bank liquidity in Vietnam context in period (2010-2018) Based on the analysis results, we give some recommendations It is suitable to improve the bank liquidity of Vietnamese commercial banks in the future.
THE RECOMMENDATION OF RESEARCH
Bank liquidity is an important factor in commercial banks, lack of bank liquidity can lead to the collapse of a bank In 2007, the crisis from subprime lending by the US submerged the entire US economy in particular as well as the global financial system The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS, 2004) points out that one of the main causes of the crisis is liquidity issues Banks that rely on short-term money markets to fund their operating assets tend to have very high liquidity problems, according to vneconomy: “The explosion of subprime lending a deep source of the imbalance in global credit capital in recent years While credit growth is increasing from open monetary policies, the demand for capital mobilization of businesses after US financial scandals such as Enron, Worldcom and information technology crisis since 2001 decline again. Governments also increasingly control budget deficits to avoid borrowing from external capital The imbalance between supply and demand of capital leads to the overcapacity of capital sources that the market does not use effectively Subprime lending is a solution to the problem of capital surplus to maximize profits Excessive lending of subprime loans for a short time led to a loss of credit quality control, which was the cause of the credit crisis in 2007.
After the 2007 financial crisis of the US, all commercial banking systems around the world faced difficulties, especially banks in Vietnam, faced with severe bank liquidity shortage Although from 2012, this problem has improved but there are still many hidden risks Therefore, the research " Bank liquidity and its determinants in VietNam" is studied to improve bank liquidity and bring good profits for commercial banks in the future.
OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
The general goal of research is to analyze the determinants of liquidity ofVietnamcommercial banks Moreover, research also suggest some practical solutions to enhance the bank liquidity system of commercial banks.
This research is taken to achieve the particular goals followed by:
Finding out and examining the determinants of liquidity of Vietnam commercial banks.
Proposing practical recommendations and policies for improving liquidity system of Vietnam commercial banks.
RESEARCH QUESTIONS
The research will answer some questions as follows:
- What factors affect the liquidity of commercial banks in Vietnam?
- What is the impact level of these factors? What factors affect the most liquidity affecting the banking system?
- What solutions can improve the liquidity of Vietnamese commercial banks?
RESEARCH’S SUBJECT AND RANGE
The object of the research is the bank liquidity of the commercial banks in Vietnam.
The sample of the research was collected from financial report Vietnamese commercial banks in the period from 2010-2018.
LIQ = β 0 + β 1 *ROA + βROA + β 2 *ROA + βSIZEi,t + β 3 *ROA + βTLAi,t + β 4 *ROA + βCEAi,t+ β 5 *ROA + βT DESi,t
+β 6 *ROA + βINFi,t + β 7 *ROA + βGDPi,t +Ei,t
- LIQ = total liquid assets / total asset
LIQ depicts the bank’s ability to absorb liquidity shocks In theory, the higher liquidity ratio indicates that the bank is in a better position to meet its stochastic withdrawals (Chagwiza, 2014).
ROA show how to generate income from the assets of the bankan (Chin, 2011).This ratio is used in several articles to compare the financial performance of banks UseROA as dependent variable also provides to convince to compare the results to other 3
4 findings in this literature It reflects the ability of the banks to use the financial data and real estate resources to generate profits (Khrawish, 2011; Ongore and Kusa, 2013).
- SIZE = size of the bank = natural logarithme of total assets
Size can show the economies of scale The large banks benefit from economies of scale which reduces the cost of production and information gathering (Boyd and Runkhle, 1993).
- TLA= total loans / total assets
TLA shows the percentage of loans in relation to total assets.
- CEA=operating expenses / total assets
Operating expenses including personal expenses and other expenses CEA shows the weight of operating expenses compared to total assets.
- T deposit = total deposits / total assets
Deposits include demand deposit and term deposits T deposits show the share of deposits compared to total assets.
- GDP =growth rate of gross domestic product
GDP shows the growth of economic activity in the country (Ayadi and Boujelbène, 2012).
INF shows the increase in the price index.
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
- Qualitative method: Using the method of description, synthesis, comparison, analysis to raise the factors affecting the liquidity of commercial banks and build a research model.
- Quantitative method: Implementing the multivariate regression model According to Brooks (2008), the regression process uses multivariate regression analysis for panel data including:
- Implementation of Pooled OLS, FEM, REM and FGLS models.
- Perform tests to choose the most appropriate model.
- Examining the defects of the selected model and overcoming the model's defects(if any).
- Analyze the results of the final model after testing and overcoming defects.
RESEARCH CONTENT
To analyze the determinants of liquidity of commercial banks in Vietnam, this search is organized by separating into five chapters.
Chapter 1: The introduction of research
Chapter 2: Overview of Vietnam commercial banks and empirical study
Chapter 3: Estimated model and methodology
Chapter 4: The result of estimation
MAJOR THEMES OF THE RESEARCH
In addition to the introduction, conclusion, list of abbreviations, list of tables, list of references, appendices, the content of the thesis consists of 5 chapters:
Introduce the topic and the necessity of the paper Determine research objectives,research questions, subject and scope of research In addition, verify research method,meaning and contribution of the study.
LITERATURE REVIEW
THEORETICAL FOUNDATIONS OF BANK LIQUIDITY
Liquidity is an important variable for the bank and the banking system components Bank liquidity is the fact of being available in the form of money, rather than investments or property, or of being able to be changed into money easily or money, rather than investments or property, or asset than can be changed into money easily.
2.1.2 The role of bank liquidity for Vietnamese commercial banks
Liquidity is one of the most factor on banking system as it provides money punctually to bank operation High liquidity is the evidence that bank has a strong operation and high-profile reputation in one market and economy Therefore, all of global banks together consider to liquidity as well as liquidity factor Then suggesting a great deal of practical solution to enhance liquidity for commercial banks.
2.1.3 Supply and demand of liquidity and net liquidity status2
The liquidity only appears when the bank is faced with the need to withdraw money from customers or perform tasks as committed At that time, the bank would not only worry about balancing the demand for withdrawals with the existing amount, but also taking into account the possibility of subsequent capital mobilization Therefore, the evaluation of bank liquidity must look at a dynamic state, that is, must be considered in the relationship of supply - demand of available capital of the bank in certain periods.
The liquidity supply is a source of liquidity for banks, which includes sources of capital that increase the bank’s solvency, such as:
Deposit amounts: This is considered to be the main source of liquidity of banks To increase the liquidity supply, banks can take some methods like: to adjust deposit rates, create good services (such as promotion, reward), professional stylist, bank reputation.
Credits refunded is a credit which is fully paid after using in order to secure bank’s capital If every credit balance is together paid punctually, it will be that not only banking
3 http://economics.about.com/cs/economicsglossary/g/liquidity.htm operation is secured, but also is the primary liquidity supply for banks.
All of receivables from service of customers such as guarantee fees, L/C open fees, transferred fees, etc.
Market Loans: To increase the liquidity supply, banks can borrow money in the monetary market having from other commercial banks or central banks, especially in the liquidity crisis time, which interbank market plays a vital role of handling solvency difficulty very soon.
Selling assets: When the bank meets liquidity demand, it can exchange a partial asset into money.
Issuing stocks to the market: The bank can issue stocks to the market to increase liquidity source However, the income from issuing shares is often used for development purposes to expand the macro-scale, market share or restructure equity, and the purpose of bank liquidity is rarely used.
Demand for liquidity reflects the need to withdraw money from the bank at different times This demand depends on the following factors:
Deposits paid to customers: Customers may have regular and immediate demand for withdrawals, including non-term deposits, payment deposits, term deposits and the number of deposits that can be withdrawn before maturity It is worth that non-term and payment deposits, the bank always has to ensure reserves to meet the payment needs from this account.
Providing credit to customers: This is the main specialization of the bank when using deposit capital to lend to customers The demand for loans from customers has a strong impact on the liquidity needs of the bank and this demand is influenced by the customer's investment needs, high lending interest rates, regulations on conditions for loans, etc.
Self-liquidating loans: This is the amount of money the bank must repay for borrowings from other economic organizations, individuals, credit institutions or the SBV.
Administration and service expenses: This is all of expenses of banking operating such as salaries, bonuses and other outside services including electricity, water,advertising, etc.
Interest expense: These are the costs of interest payment of deposits, interest payment of valuable papers.
Dividend payment: Dividend payments to shareholders
Repurchase of shares (Mua lại cổ phiếu): Expenditures to purchase treasury shares, shares that the bank has previously issued to stimulate demand for increasing stock prices, increasing earnings per share (EPS) or rewarding employees….
According the analysis above, this also shows that the supply and demand for liquidity are relatively various, the difference between the total supply and demand at a time showing the net liquidity status which is shown by the formula.
- NLP = Total supply of liquidity - Total demand of liquidity There are three cases occurring when identifying net liquidity status:
- NLP = 0, liquidity status is balanced, (this is almost impossible in practice).
- NLP> 0, which means total liquidity supply is greater than total liquidity demand, also known as liquidity surplus In this case, the bank manager needs to see where to invest to gain profits from this surplus.…
- NLP F = 0.0000 (p-value