Tài liệu Assessing Irregular Warfare ppt

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RAND monographs present major research findings that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors. All RAND mono- graphs undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for research quality and objectivity. Eric V. Larson, Derek Eaton, Brian Nichiporuk, Thomas S. Szayna Prepared for the United States Army Approved for public release; distribution unlimited ARROYO CENTER Assessing Irregular Warfare A Framework for Intelligence Analysis The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit research organization providing objective analysis and effective solutions that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors around the world. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. R ® is a registered trademark. © Copyright 2008 RAND Corporation All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by any electronic or mechanical means (including photocopying, recording, or information storage and retrieval) without permission in writing from RAND. Published 2008 by the RAND Corporation 1776 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050 4570 Fifth Avenue, Suite 600, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-2665 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Email: order@rand.org Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Assessing irregular warfare : a framework for intelligence analysis / Eric V. Larson [et al.]. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 978-0-8330-4322-1 (pbk. : alk. paper) 1. Military intelligence—United States. 2. Asymmetric warfare. I. Larson, Eric V. (Eric Victor), 1957– UB251.U5A77 2008 355.3'432—dc22 2008004727 The research described in this report was sponsored by the United States Army under Contract No. DASW01-01-C-0003. iii Preface is monograph documents the results of a study titled “Planning Intelligence Support to Irregular Warfare.” e aim of the study was to assist the National Ground Intelligence Center (NGIC) in better understanding the intelligence analytic requirements of irregular war- fare (IW) by providing an analytic framework for IW on which to base an educational and training curriculum that would enhance the capa- bilities NGIC analysts use to assess IW situations. e results described should be of interest to intelligence analysts and managers in the intelligence community who are wrestling with the innumerable conceptual, collection, and analytic challenges presented by contemporary IW environments. Additionally, these results may be of interest to scholarly audiences involved in developing new analytic methodologies and tools that might be employed in IW analysis. is research was sponsored by the NGIC, a major subordinate command of the U.S. Army’s Intelligence and Security Command, and conducted within RAND Arroyo Center’s Strategy, Doctrine, and Resources Program. RAND Arroyo Center, part of the RAND Cor- poration, is a federally funded research and development center spon- sored by the United States Army. For comments or further information about this monograph, please contact omas Szayna (telephone 310-393-0411, extension 7758; e-mail omas_Szayna@rand.org) or Eric Larson (telephone 310-393-0411, extension 7467; email larson@rand.org). e Project Unique Identification Code (PUIC) for the project that produced this document is NGIC-06001. iv Assessing Irregular Warfare: A Framework for Intelligence Analysis For more information on RAND Arroyo Center, contact the Director of Operations (telephone 310-393-0411, extension 6419; FAX 310-451- 6952; email Marcy_Agmon@rand.org), or visit Arroyo’s Web site at http://www.rand.org/ard/. v Contents Preface iii Figures vii Tables ix Summary xi Acknowledgments xv Abbreviations xvii CHAPTER ONE Introduction 1 Background to the Study 1 Study Aims and Analytic Approach 3 Organization of is Monograph 5 CHAPTER TWO Defining Irregular Warfare 7 A Review of Recent Efforts to Define Irregular Warfare 8 Irregular Warfare Operation Types 11 Irregular Warfare Common Logical Lines of Operation 14 Chapter Conclusions 17 CHAPTER THREE A Framework for Assessing Irregular Warfare 19 Population-Centric Irregular Warfare Operations 20 Initial Assessment and Data Gathering 22 Detailed Stakeholder Analyses 26 Dynamic Analyses 28 vi Assessing Irregular Warfare: A Framework for Intelligence Analysis Analytic Techniques for Irregular Warfare Analysis 29 Counterterrorism Operations 35 Tactical Counterterrorism Operations 38 Operations Against Transnational Terrorist Networks 39 Comparison to the Standard IPB Process 40 Chapter Conclusions 43 CHAPTER FOUR Conclusions 45 APPENDIX A. A Review of Defense Policy, Strategy, and Irregular Warfare 47 B. Irregular Warfare Analysis Doctrinal References 61 References 63 vii Figures S.1. Analytic Framework for IW Analysis xii 1.1. Analytic Approach for Identifying IW Intelligence and Analytic Requirements 4 2.1. Intelligence Requirements for Irregular Warfare Logical Lines of Operation 16 3.1. IW Assessment Framework 23 3.2. Geospatially Oriented Aspects of the Information Domain of the Operating Environment 25 A.1. 2006 Quadrennial Defense Review’s Priorities 49 A.2. 2006 Quadrennial Defense Review’s View of reats 50 A.3. National Strategy for Global War on Terrorism 57 A.4. Military Strategic Framework for Greater War on Terrorism 58 [...]... Command Center for Knowledge and Futures, Multi-Service Concept for Irregular Warfare, 2006, p 11; and IW JOC 9/07 = DoD, Irregular Warfare (IW) Joint Operating Concept (JOC), September 2007, p 10 18 IW JOC 9/07, p 10 14 Assessing Irregular Warfare: A Framework for Intelligence Analysis terrorism, foreign internal defense, and unconventional warfare are IW missions/activities, some important differences... Futures, Multi-Service Concept for Irregular Warfare, 2006, p 6; FM 3-24 12/06 = Headquarters, Department of the Army, Counterinsurgency, 2006, p 5-3; IW JOC 9/07 = DoD, Irregular Warfare (IW) Joint Operating Concept (JOC), September 2007, p 10 21 Headquarters, Department of the Army, Counterinsurgency, FM 3-24, Washington, D.C., December 2006, p 5-3 16 Assessing Irregular Warfare: A Framework for Intelligence... Irregular Warfare Missions and Activities 13 Irregular Warfare Logical Lines of Operation 15 Crosswalk with Standard IPB Process 42 ix Summary The aim of this study was to assist the Department of the Army’s National Ground Intelligence Center (NGIC) in better understanding the intelligence analytic requirements of irregular warfare. .. Lexicon (Mar 06 refinement effort results),” Washington, D.C., March 2006, p 13 10 Assessing Irregular Warfare: A Framework for Intelligence Analysis A form of warfare that has as its objective the credibility and/ or legitimacy of the relevant political authority with the goal of undermining or supporting that authority Irregular warfare favors indirect approaches, though it may apply the full range of military... population-centric (such as counterinsurgency) or counterterrorism, that focused on irregular features” of the operating environment—that is, the central environmental and operational variables whose interplay determines the overall trajectory of an irregular conflict toward either success or failure xi xii Assessing Irregular Warfare: A Framework for Intelligence Analysis The central idea of the framework... population.13 Irregular Warfare Operation Types A number of efforts have also been made to define the specific missions that make up IW These, too, have had somewhat inconsistent results: Although the February 2006 Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) Report used the term irregular warfare in varying ways, it explicitly called out the following as missions in the IW portfolio: counterinsurgency; unconventional warfare; ... Joint Special Operations and Irregular Warfare Tier 1 JCA, and identified counterinsurgency and foreign internal defense as Tier 2 missions; but it also identified unconventional warfare, counterterrorism, psychological operations, and civil-military operations as Tier 3 Special Operations Forces (SOF) JCAs that support IW.16 The August Multi-Service Concept for Irregular Warfare, while accenting offensive... Development Command and U.S Special Operations Command Center for Knowledge and Futures, Multi-Service Concept for Irregular Warfare, 2006, p 11 Defining Irregular Warfare 13 criminal activities that support or sustain adversaries’ IW activities; law enforcement activities focused on countering irregular adversaries.18 Table 2.1 summarizes the evolution in DoD thinking about IW missions and activities As... Intelligence and Security Command information operations intelligence preparation of the battlefield Intelligence and Threat Analysis Center irregular warfare Joint Capability Area Joint Operating Concept Joint Publication logical line of operation xvii xviii Assessing Irregular Warfare: A Framework for Intelligence Analysis METT-TC NGIC NMSP-WOT OOB OPCON POM PRIO QDR S&TI SI SIPRI SOCOM SOF SSTRO TTP UW WMD/E... for Influence Operations, MG-656-A, Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation, forthcoming 6 Assessing Irregular Warfare: A Framework for Intelligence Analysis related to IW, and Appendix B lists doctrinal publications identified as addressing the intelligence analytic requirements of IW CHAPTER TWO Defining Irregular Warfare Historical U.S experience with internal conflicts around the world provides ample . 5 CHAPTER TWO Defining Irregular Warfare 7 A Review of Recent Efforts to Define Irregular Warfare 8 Irregular Warfare Operation Types 11 Irregular Warfare Common. Conclusions 17 CHAPTER THREE A Framework for Assessing Irregular Warfare 19 Population-Centric Irregular Warfare Operations 20 Initial Assessment and